Weekend Warrior Box Office Predicions for June 26-28, 2009

Weekend Warrior

Box Office Predictions for June 26 - 28, 2009
By Edward Douglas -

This Week's Analysis (final update 6.25.09)

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TW	LW	Title	Weekend (in millions)	Change	# Of Theaters	Average	Week
1	New	Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen	$110.5	N/A	4,234	$26,098	1
2	1	The Proposal	$19.5	-42%	3,030	$6,436	2
3	2	The Hangover	$17.4	-35%	3,525	$4,936	4
4	4	Up	$14.6	-38%	3,487	$4,072	5
5	New	My Sister's Keeper	$13.3	N/A	2,606	$5,104	1
6	3	Year One	$7.6	-62%	3,024	$2,513	2
7	5	Taking of Pelham 123	$5.0	-58%	2,995	$1,669	3
8	6	Night at the Museum	$3.9	-50%	2,500	$1,560	6
9	8	Star Trek	$3.3	-40%	1,900	$1,737	8
10	7	Land of the Lost	$1.8	-58%	2,500	$1,196	4
			Est. Weekend Total $196.50	Est. Avg. Drop-Off - 48%		Est. Average PTA $5,534

COMPARISONS:

TRANSFORMERS: REVENGE OF THE FALLEN (DreamWorks/Paramount)

Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull	5/22/08	4,260	$25.04	$100.14	$23,507	$317.00
Transformers	7/6/07	4,011	$84.90	$70.50	$17,577	$319.25
Disturbia	4/13/08	2,925		$22.22	$7,598	$80.21
The Island	7/22/05	3,122		$12.41	$3,975	$35.26
Pearl Harbor	5/25/01	3,214		$59.08	$18,382	$198.54
Armageddon	7/3/98	3,127	$18.10	$36.09	$11,541	$201.58
Spider-Man 2	7/2/04	4,152	$64.26	$88.52	$21,232	$371.17
Spider-Man	5/3/02	3,615		$114.84	$31,769	$405.69
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest	7/7/06	4,133		$135.62	$32,817	$423.27
Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl	7/11/03	3,269	$24.00	$46.63	$14,264	$305.41
The Dark Knight	7/18/08	4,366		$158.41	$36,283	$533.35
Batman Begins	6/17/05	3,858	$24.15	$48.75	$12,635	$205.09
Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith	5/20/05	3,661	$50.01	$108.44	$29,619	$380.21
Star Wars: Episode II - Attack of the Clones	5/16/02	3,161	$30.14	$80.03	$25,317	$302.18
Star Wars: Episode 1-The Phantom Menace	5/21/99	2,970	$41.76	$64.81	$21,822	$431.07
The Matrix Reloaded	5/16/03	3,603	$42.51	$91.77	$25,471	$281.91
The Matrix	4/2/99	2,849	$9.57	$27.78	$9,751	$171.38
Superman Returns	6/28/06	4,065		$52.54	$12,924	$200.08

MY SISTER'S KEEPER (New Line/WB)

Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
What Happens in Vegas	5/9/08	3,215		$20.17	$6,274	$80.28
In Her Shoes	10/7/05	2,808		$10.02	$3,568	$32.88
Gangs of New York	12/20/02	1,504		$9.12	$6,051	$77.81
Vanilla Sky	12/14/01	2,742		$25.02	$9,123	$100.40
Kit Kittredge: An American Girl	6/20/08	1,843	$2.53	$3.27	$1,789	$17.66
Nim's Island	4/4/08	3,513		$13.21	$3,760	$48.06
Definitely, Maybe	2/14/08	2,204	$3.12	$9.76	$4,430	$31.40
No Reservations	7/27/07	2,425		$11.70	$4,827	$43.10
Little Miss Sunshine	7/26/06	1,430	$15.51	$7.37	$5,155	$59.89
Marley and Me	12/5/08	3,480	$14.38	$36.36	$10,448	$143.15
Nights in Rodanthe	9/26/08	2,704		$13.42	$4,962	$41.85
The Notebeook	6/25/04	2,303		$13.46	$5,847	$79.67
Message In A Bottle	2/12/99	2,538		$16.71	$6,584	$52.80
What Happens in Vegas	5/9/08	3,215		$20.17	$6,274	$80.28
In Her Shoes	10/7/05	2,808		$10.02	$3,568	$32.88
Gangs of New York	12/20/02	1,504		$9.12	$6,051	$77.81