Weekend Warrior

Box Office Predictions for June 26 - 28, 2009
By Edward Douglas -

This Week's Analysis (final update 6.25.09)

Enjoy the numbers but please do try to check out the preview and analysis posted on the blog at the link above, including reviews, interviews, etc. If you have anything to say about anything written in this column, feedback and Email is always welcome, and almost always responded to.

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TW

LW

Title

Weekend (in millions)

Change

# Of Theaters

Average

Week

1

New

Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen

$110.5

N/A

4,234

$26,098

1

2

1

The Proposal

$19.5

-42%

3,030

$6,436

2

3

2

The Hangover

$17.4

-35%

3,525

$4,936

4

4

4

Up

$14.6

-38%

3,487

$4,072

5

5

New

My Sister's Keeper

$13.3

N/A

2,606

$5,104

1

6

3

Year One

$7.6

-62%

3,024

$2,513

2

7

5

Taking of Pelham 123

$5.0

-58%

2,995

$1,669

3

8

6

Night at the Museum

$3.9

-50%

2,500

$1,560

6

9

8

Star Trek

$3.3

-40%

1,900

$1,737

8

10

7

Land of the Lost

$1.8

-58%

2,500

$1,196

4

Est. Weekend Total
$196.50

Est. Avg. Drop-Off
- 48%

Est. Average PTA
$5,534



COMPARISONS:

TRANSFORMERS: REVENGE OF THE FALLEN (DreamWorks/Paramount)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull

5/22/08

4,260

$25.04

$100.14

$23,507

$317.00

Transformers

7/6/07

4,011

$84.90

$70.50

$17,577

$319.25

Disturbia

4/13/08

2,925

$22.22

$7,598

$80.21

The Island

7/22/05

3,122

$12.41

$3,975

$35.26

Pearl Harbor

5/25/01

3,214

$59.08

$18,382

$198.54

Armageddon

7/3/98

3,127

$18.10

$36.09

$11,541

$201.58

Spider-Man 2

7/2/04

4,152

$64.26

$88.52

$21,232

$371.17

Spider-Man

5/3/02

3,615

$114.84

$31,769

$405.69

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest

7/7/06

4,133

$135.62

$32,817

$423.27

Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl

7/11/03

3,269

$24.00

$46.63

$14,264

$305.41

The Dark Knight

7/18/08

4,366

$158.41

$36,283

$533.35

Batman Begins

6/17/05

3,858

$24.15

$48.75

$12,635

$205.09

Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith

5/20/05

3,661

$50.01

$108.44

$29,619

$380.21

Star Wars: Episode II - Attack of the Clones

5/16/02

3,161

$30.14

$80.03

$25,317

$302.18

Star Wars: Episode 1-The Phantom Menace

5/21/99

2,970

$41.76

$64.81

$21,822

$431.07

The Matrix Reloaded

5/16/03

3,603

$42.51

$91.77

$25,471

$281.91

The Matrix

4/2/99

2,849

$9.57

$27.78

$9,751

$171.38

Superman Returns

6/28/06

4,065

$52.54

$12,924

$200.08



MY SISTER'S KEEPER (New Line/WB)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

What Happens in Vegas

5/9/08

3,215

$20.17

$6,274

$80.28

In Her Shoes

10/7/05

2,808

$10.02

$3,568

$32.88

Gangs of New York

12/20/02

1,504

$9.12

$6,051

$77.81

Vanilla Sky

12/14/01

2,742

$25.02

$9,123

$100.40

Kit Kittredge: An American Girl

6/20/08

1,843

$2.53

$3.27

$1,789

$17.66

Nim's Island

4/4/08

3,513

$13.21

$3,760

$48.06

Definitely, Maybe

2/14/08

2,204

$3.12

$9.76

$4,430

$31.40

No Reservations

7/27/07

2,425

$11.70

$4,827

$43.10

Little Miss Sunshine

7/26/06

1,430

$15.51

$7.37

$5,155

$59.89

Marley and Me

12/5/08

3,480

$14.38

$36.36

$10,448

$143.15

Nights in Rodanthe

9/26/08

2,704

$13.42

$4,962

$41.85

The Notebeook

6/25/04

2,303

$13.46

$5,847

$79.67

Message In A Bottle

2/12/99

2,538

$16.71

$6,584

$52.80

What Happens in Vegas

5/9/08

3,215

$20.17

$6,274

$80.28

In Her Shoes

10/7/05

2,808

$10.02

$3,568

$32.88

Gangs of New York

12/20/02

1,504

$9.12

$6,051

$77.81


Copyright 2009 Edward Douglas

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