Weekend Warrior

Box Office Predictions for June 19 - 21, 2009
By Edward Douglas -

This Week's Analysis (final update 6.18.09)

Enjoy the numbers but please do try to check out the preview and analysis posted on the blog at the link above, including reviews, interviews, etc. If you have anything to say about anything written in this column, feedback and Email is always welcome, and almost always responded to.

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TW

LW

Title

Weekend (in millions)

Change

# Of Theaters

Average

Week

1

New

The Proposal

$26.5

N/A

3,056

$8,671

1

2

1

The Hangover

$23.0

-30%

3,545

$6,488

3

3

New

Year One

$22.5

N/A

3,022

$7,445

1

4

2

Up

$20.6

-33%

3,832

$5,376

4

5

3

Taking of Pelham 1 2 3

$12.5

-47%

3,077

$4,058

2

6

4

Night at the Museum

$6.0

-37%

2,962

$2,105

5

7

5

Land of the Lost

$4.3

-52%

2,942

$1,458

3

8

7

Star Trek

$3.6

-33%

2,307

$1,496

7

9

6

Imagine That

$3.0

-47%

3,011

$996

2

10

8

Terminator Salvation

$2.5

-48%

1,920

$1,302

5

Est. Weekend Total
$124.60

Est. Avg. Drop-Off
- 41%

Est. Average PTA
$3,942



COMPARISONS:

THE PROPOSAL (Disney/Touchstone)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

Premonition

3/16/07

2,831

$17.56

$6,202

$47.84

The Lake House

6/16/06

2,645

$13.62

$5,148

$52.33

Miss Congeniality 2: Armed and Fabulous

3/25/05

3,233

$3.06

$14.04

$4,344

$48.47

Two Weeks Notice

12/20/02

2,755

$14.40

$5,227

$88.82

The Divine Secrets of the Ya-Ya Sisterhood

6/7/02

2,507

$16.17

$6,449

$69.59

Miss Congeniality

12/22/00

2,668

$10.05

$3,667

$106.81

28 Days

4/14/00

2,523

$10.31

$4,086

$37.04

Adventureland

4/3/09

1,862

$5.72

$3,073

$16.04

Definitely, Maybe

2/14/08

2,204

$3.12

$9.76

$4,430

$31.40

Just Friends

11/25/05

2,505

$4.05

$9.19

$3,669

$32.60

He's Just Not That Into You

2/6/09

3,175

$27.79

$8,751

$93.93

27 Dresses

1/18/08

3,057

$23.01

$7,526

$76.65

The Devil Wears Prada

6/30/06

2,847

$27.54

$9,672

$124.74

How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days

2/7/03

2,923

$23.77

$8,134

$105.81

Failure to Launch

3/10/06

3,057

$24.41

$7,985

$88.72



YEAR ONE (Touchstone)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

Kung Fu Panda

6/6/08

4,114

$60.24

$14,642

$215.44

Be Kind, Rewind

2/22/08

808

$4.05

$5,013

$11.17

Tenacious D in the Pick of Destiny

11/24/06

1,919

$3.23

$1,686

$8.33

Nacho Libre

6/16/06

3,070

$28.31

$9,221

$80.20

Orange County

1/11/02

2,317

$15.05

$6,497

$41.03

Shallow Hal

11/9/01

2,771

$23.28

$8,401

$70.83

Nick and Norah's Infinite Playlist

10/3/08

2,421

$11.31

$4,672

$31.49

Juno

12/5/07

1,019

$15.38

$10.63

$10,436

$142.11

Superbad

8/17/07

2,948

$33.05

$11,212

$121.46

The Ice Harvest

11/25/05

1,550

$1.31

$3.74

$2,413

$8.82

Analyze That

12/6/02

2,635

$11.03

$4,186

$31.82

Analyze This

3/5/99

2,518

$18.38

$7,299

$106.69

Bedazzled

10/20/00

2,568

$13.11

$5,105

$37.84


Copyright 2009 Edward Douglas

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