Weekend Warrior

Box Office Predictions for July 3 - 5, 2009
By Edward Douglas -

This Week's Analysis (final update 7.2.09)

Enjoy the numbers but please do try to check out the preview and analysis posted on the blog at the link above, including reviews, interviews, etc. If you have anything to say about anything written in this column, feedback and Email is always welcome, and almost always responded to.

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TW

LW

Title

Weekend (in millions)

Change

# Of Theaters

Average

Week

1

New

Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs

$48.5

N/A

4,099

$11,832

1

2

1

Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen

$45.8

-58%

4,250

$10,776

2

3

New

Public Enemies

$28.6

N/A

3,334

$8,578

1

4

3

The Hangover

$11.5

-30%

3,070

$3,746

5

5

2

The Proposal

$10.8

-41%

3,099

$3,485

3

6

5

My Sister's Keeper

$7.5

-42%

2,606

$2,878

2

7

4

Up

$6.9

-47%

2,656

$2,598

6

8

7

Taking of Pelham 123

$2.6

-52%

1,908

$1,363

4

9

6

Year One

$2.5

-58%

2,240

$1,116

3

10

9

Star Trek

$2.1

-45%

1,148

$1,829

9

Est. Weekend Total
$166.80

Est. Avg. Drop-Off
- 47%

Est. Average PTA
$4,820



COMPARISONS:

ICE AGE: DAWN OF THE DINOSAURS (20th Century Fox)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

Ice Age: the Meltdown

3/31/06

3,964

$68.03

$17,163

$195.33

Ice Age

3/15/02

3,316

$46.30

$13,966

$176.39

Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa

11/7/08

4056

$63.10

$15,559

$180.01

Madagascar

5/27/05

4,131

$47.22

$14,769

$193.14

Shrek the Third

5/18/07

4,122

$0.91

$121.63

$29,507

$320.71

Shrek 2

5/21/04

4,163

$20.95

$108.04

$25,952

$436.47

Shrek

5/18/01

3,587

$0.04

$42.35

$11,805

$267.65

Dr. Seuss' Horton Hears a Who

3/14/08

3,954

$45.01

$11,384

$154.53

Robots

3/11/05

3,776

$36.05

$9,546

$128.19

Cats and Dogs

7/6/01

3,040

$14.05

$21.71

$7,140

$93.38



PUBLIC ENEMIES (Universal)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

Terminator Salvation

5/21/09

3,530

$13.37

$42.56

$12,056

$121.15

The Dark Knight

7/18/08

4,366

$158.41

$36,283

$533.35

Batman Begins

6/17/05

3,858

$24.15

$48.75

$12,635

$205.09

3:10 to Yuma

9/7/07

2,652

$14.04

$5,292

$53.61

The Prestige

10/20/06

2,281

$14.80

$6,489

$53.09

Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street

12/21/07

1,249

$9.30

$7,447

$52.90

Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End

5/25/07

4,362

$13.24

$114.73

$26,303

$309.40

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest

7/7/06

4,133

$135.62

$32,817

$423.27

Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl

7/11/03

3,269

$24.00

$46.63

$14,264

$305.41

Charlie and the Chocolate Factory

7/15/05

3,770

$56.18

$14,901

$206.46

Miami Vice

7/28/06

3,021

$25.72

$8,515

$63.48

Collateral

8/6/04

3,188

$24.70

$7,748

$101.00

Ali

12/28/01

2,446

$20.03

$14.71

$6,014

$58.18

Heat

12/15/95

1,325

$8.45

$6,377

$67.40

American Gangster

11/2/07

3,054

$43.57

$14,265

$130.16

The Departed

10/6/06

3,017

$26.89

$8,912

$133.31

Cinderella Man

6/3/05

2,812

$18.32

$6,515

$61.65

Seabiscuit

7/25/03

1,987

$20.85

$10,495

$120.20

Road to Perdition

7/12/02

1,797

$22.08

$12,267

$104.05


Copyright 2009 Edward Douglas

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