Weekend Warrior Box Office Predicions for July 3-5, 2009

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Weekend Warrior

Box Office Predictions for July 3 - 5, 2009
By Edward Douglas -

This Week's Analysis (final update 7.2.09)

Enjoy the numbers but please do try to check out the preview and analysis posted on the blog at the link above, including reviews, interviews, etc. If you have anything to say about anything written in this column, feedback and Email is always welcome, and almost always responded to.

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TW	LW	Title	Weekend (in millions)	Change	# Of Theaters	Average	Week
1	New	Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs	$48.5	N/A	4,099	$11,832	1
2	1	Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen	$45.8	-58%	4,250	$10,776	2
3	New	Public Enemies	$28.6	N/A	3,334	$8,578	1
4	3	The Hangover	$11.5	-30%	3,070	$3,746	5
5	2	The Proposal	$10.8	-41%	3,099	$3,485	3
6	5	My Sister's Keeper	$7.5	-42%	2,606	$2,878	2
7	4	Up	$6.9	-47%	2,656	$2,598	6
8	7	Taking of Pelham 123	$2.6	-52%	1,908	$1,363	4
9	6	Year One	$2.5	-58%	2,240	$1,116	3
10	9	Star Trek	$2.1	-45%	1,148	$1,829	9
			Est. Weekend Total $166.80	Est. Avg. Drop-Off - 47%		Est. Average PTA $4,820

COMPARISONS:

ICE AGE: DAWN OF THE DINOSAURS (20^th Century Fox)

Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Ice Age: the Meltdown	3/31/06	3,964		$68.03	$17,163	$195.33
Ice Age	3/15/02	3,316		$46.30	$13,966	$176.39
Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa	11/7/08	4056		$63.10	$15,559	$180.01
Madagascar	5/27/05	4,131		$47.22	$14,769	$193.14
Shrek the Third	5/18/07	4,122	$0.91	$121.63	$29,507	$320.71
Shrek 2	5/21/04	4,163	$20.95	$108.04	$25,952	$436.47
Shrek	5/18/01	3,587	$0.04	$42.35	$11,805	$267.65
Dr. Seuss' Horton Hears a Who	3/14/08	3,954		$45.01	$11,384	$154.53
Robots	3/11/05	3,776		$36.05	$9,546	$128.19
Cats and Dogs	7/6/01	3,040	$14.05	$21.71	$7,140	$93.38

PUBLIC ENEMIES (Universal)

Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Terminator Salvation	5/21/09	3,530	$13.37	$42.56	$12,056	$121.15
The Dark Knight	7/18/08	4,366		$158.41	$36,283	$533.35
Batman Begins	6/17/05	3,858	$24.15	$48.75	$12,635	$205.09
3:10 to Yuma	9/7/07	2,652		$14.04	$5,292	$53.61
The Prestige	10/20/06	2,281		$14.80	$6,489	$53.09
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street	12/21/07	1,249		$9.30	$7,447	$52.90
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End	5/25/07	4,362	$13.24	$114.73	$26,303	$309.40
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest	7/7/06	4,133		$135.62	$32,817	$423.27
Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl	7/11/03	3,269	$24.00	$46.63	$14,264	$305.41
Charlie and the Chocolate Factory	7/15/05	3,770		$56.18	$14,901	$206.46
Miami Vice	7/28/06	3,021		$25.72	$8,515	$63.48
Collateral	8/6/04	3,188		$24.70	$7,748	$101.00
Ali	12/28/01	2,446	$20.03	$14.71	$6,014	$58.18
Heat	12/15/95	1,325		$8.45	$6,377	$67.40
American Gangster	11/2/07	3,054		$43.57	$14,265	$130.16
The Departed	10/6/06	3,017		$26.89	$8,912	$133.31
Cinderella Man	6/3/05	2,812		$18.32	$6,515	$61.65
Seabiscuit	7/25/03	1,987		$20.85	$10,495	$120.20
Road to Perdition	7/12/02	1,797		$22.08	$12,267	$104.05