Weekend Warrior

Box Office Predictions for Jan. 16 - 19, 2009
By Edward Douglas -

This Week's Analysis (final update 1.15.09)

(Enjoy the numbers but please do try to check out the preview and analysis posted on the blog at the link above, including reviews, interviews, etc. If you have anything to say about anything written in this column, feedback and Email is always welcome, and almost always responded to.)

TW

LW

Title

Weekend (in millions)

Change

# Of Theaters

Average

Week

1

New

My Bloody Valentine 3D

$22.1

N/A

2,534

$8,721

1

2

1

Gran Torino

$20.6

-32%

2,972

$6,931

6

3

New

Paul Blart: Mall Cop

$18.3

N/A

3,144

$5,821

1

4

New

Notorious

$16.2

N/A

1,637

$9,896

1

5

2

Bride Wars

$16.0

-25%

3,226

$4,960

2

6

New

Hotel for Dogs

$15.3

N/A

3,271

$4,677

1

7

3

The Unborn

$10.7

-46%

2,359

$4,536

2

8

4

Marley and Me

$8.3

-25%

2,952

$2,812

4

9

35

Defiance

$6.4

1018%

1,789

$3,577

4

10

5

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

$6.3

-32%

2,223

$2,789

4

Est. Weekend Total
$140.20

Est. Avg. Drop-Off
- 29%

Est. Average PTA
$5,478



COMPARISONS:

MY BLOODY VALENTINE 3D (Lionsgate)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

Prom Night

4/11/08

2,700

$20.80

$7,706

$43.82

Texas Chainsaw Massacre: The Beginning

10/6/06

2,820

$18.51

$6,563

$39.52

The Texas Chainsaw Massacre

10/17/03

3,016

$28.09

$9,315

$80.15

Dawn of the Dead

3/19/04

2,745

$26.72

$9,735

$58.89

Black Christmas

12/25/06

1,544

$7.20

$3.72

$2,412

$16.24

The Hills Have Eyes 2

3/23/07

2,447

$9.69

$3,958

$20.53

The Hills Have Eyes

3/10/06

2,620

$15.71

$5,996

$41.78

Halloween

8/31/07

3,472

$26.36

$7,593

$58.27

Halloween: Resurrection

7/12/02

1,954

$12.29

$6,291

$30.26

Hallowe'en:H20

8/7/98

2,607

$8.56

$16.19

$6,210

$55.02

Valentine

2/2/01

2,310

$10.02

$4,334

$20.36



HOTEL FOR DOGS (DreamWorks/Nickelodeon)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

Nancy Drew

6/15/07

2,612

$6.83

$2,616

$25.58

Racing Stripes

1/14/05

3,185

$18.86

$5,922

$49.19

Kangaroo Jack

1/17/03

2,818

$21.90

$7,770

$66.72

Snow Dogs

1/18/02

2,302

$23.71

$10,299

$81.15

Beverly Hills Chihuahua

10/3/08

3,215

$29.30

$9,114

$92.34

Firehouse Dog

4/4/07

2,860

$3.84

$1,342

$13.93

Because of Winn-Dixie

2/18/05

3,188

$13.22

$4,146

$32.65

Good Boy!

10/10/03

3,225

$13.11

$4,064

$37.57

My Dog Skip

3/3/00

2,331

$0.72

$5.86

$2,514

$34.10

Kit Kittredge: An American Girl

6/20/08

1,843

$2.53

$3.27

$1,789

$17.66



PAUL BLART: MALL COP (Sony)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry

7/20/07

3,495

$34.23

$9,795

$119.68

Hitch

2/11/05

3,575

$43.14

$12,068

$177.58

National Security

1/17/03

2,729

$16.81

$5,266

$36.29

Deuce Bigalow: European Gigolo

8/12/05

3,127

$9.63

$3,078

$22.26

Deuce Bigalow: Male Gigalo

12/10/99

2,154

$12.22

$5,673

$65.54

Bean

11/7/97

1,948

$7.01

$12.73

$6,535

$45.31

Ace Ventura: Pet Detective

2/4/94

1,750

$12.12

$6,926

$72.22

Ace Ventura: When Nature Calls

11/10/95

2,652

$37.80

$14,253

$108.36

Daddy Day Care

5/9/03

3,370

$27.62

$8,197

$103.55

Dickie Roberts: Former Child Star

9/5/03

2,023

$6.66

$3,288

$22.74



NOTORIOUS (Fox Searchlight)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

What's Love Got to do With It?

6/26/93

1,091

$7.73

$5.48

$5,023

$38.93

Akeelah and the Bee

4/28/06

2,195

$6.01

$2,739

$18.85

Catch a Fire

10/27/06

1,306

$2.03

$1,552

$4.29

Friday Night Lights

10/8/04

2,667

$20.27

$7,600

$61.19

Antwone Fisher

1/10/03

1,007

$6.65

$3.78

$3,757

$21.08

We Are Marshall

12/22/06

2,606

$6.11

$2,346

$43.55

Crossover

9/1/06

1,023

$3.77

$3,683

$7.01

Idlewild

8/25/06

973

$5.74

$5,905

$12.67

Get Rich or Die Tryin'

11/11/05

1,652

$5.70

$12.02

$7,277

$30.98

8 Mile

11/8/02

2,470

$51.24

$20,745

$116.13

Ray

10/29/04

2,006

$20.04

$9,990

$75.24

Roll Bounce

9/23/05

1,625

$7.57

$4,659

$17.38

Never Die Alone

3/26/04

1,161

$3.09

$2,661

$5.64


Copyright 2008 Edward Douglas

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