Weekend Warrior Box Office Predicions for August 14-16, 2009

Weekend Warrior

Box Office Predictions for December 25 - 27, 2009
By Edward Douglas -

This Week's Analysis (final update 12.23.09)

Enjoy the numbers but please do try to check out the preview and analysis posted on the blog at the link above, including reviews, interviews, etc. If you have anything to say about anything written in this column, feedback and Email is always welcome, and almost always responded to.

TW	LW	Title	Weekend (in millions)	Change	# Of Theaters	Average	Week
1	1	Avatar	$57.0	-26%	3,456	$16,493	2
2	New	Sherlock Holmes	$48.3	N/A	3,626	$13,320	1
3	New	Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakuel	$43.5	N/A	3,656	$11,898	1
4	New	It's Complicated	$22.5	N/A	2,886	$7,796	1
5	8	Up in the Air	$13.5	460%	1,895	$7,124	4
6	2	The Princess and the Frog	$11.2	-10%	3,475	$3,223	4
7	3	The Blind Side	$9.4	-6%	2,766	$3,398	6
8	20	Nine	$8.6	3700%	1,412	$6,091	2
9	4	Did You Hear About the Morgans?	$5.5	-22%	2,718	$2,024	2
10	6	Invictus	$2.8	-35%	2,160	$1,296	3
			Est. Weekend Total $222.30	Est. Avg. Drop-Off -		Est. Average PTA $7,266

COMPARISONS:

SHERLOCK HOLMES (Warner Bros.)

Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Tropic Thunder	8/13/08	3,319	$11.03	$25.81	$7,777	$110.46
Iron Man	5/2/08	4,105	$3.50	$98.62	$24,877	$316.04
Chaplin	1/8/93	1,066	$0.33	$3.26	$3,058	$9.29
Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow	9/17/04	3,170		$15.58	$4,915	$37.76
The Time Traveller's Wife	8/14/09	2,988		$18.62	$6,233	$63.41
Red Eye	8/19/05	3,079		$16.17	$5,251	$57.86
Wedding Crashers	7/15/05	2,925		$33.90	$11,590	$209.22
RocknRolla	10/8/08	826	$0.67	$1.87	$2,267	$5.69
Snatch	1/19/01	1,444	$0.06	$8.01	$5,544	$30.09
Star Trek	5/8/09	3,849		$79.20	$20,578	$257.70
Casino Royale	11/17/06	3,434		$40.83	$11,891	$167.37
Batman Begins	6/17/05	3,858	$24.15	$48.75	$12,635	$205.09
Shanghai Knights	2/7/03	2,753		$19.60	$7,121	$60.47
Shanghai Noon	5/26/00	2,711		$15.61	$5,758	$56.90
The Wild Wild West	7/2/99	3,342	$13.27	$27.72	$8,294	$113.81
Maverick	5/20/94	2,537		$17.25	$6,799	$101.63
From Hell	10/19/01	2,305		$11.32	$4,911	$31.60

ALVIN AND THE CHIPMUNKS: THE SQUEAKUEL (20^th Century Fox)

Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Alvin and the Chipmunks	12/14/07	3,475	$44.31	$12,750	$217.33
Garfield: A Tale of Two Kitties	6/16/06	2,946	$7.29	$2,474	$28.43
Garfield	6/11/04	3,094	$21.73	$7,023	$75.18
Stuart Little 2	7/19/02	3,255	$15.12	$4,644	$64.15
Stuart Little	12/17/99	2,878	$15.02	$5,219	$140.02
Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian	5/22/09	4,096	$54.17	$13,226	$177.05
Night at the Museum	12/22/06	3,685	$30.43	$8,259	$250.86
G-Force	7/24/09	3,697	$31.71	$8,576	$119.42
Dr. Dolittle 2	6/22/01	3,049	$25.04	$8,212	$112.89
Doctor Dolittle	6/26/98	2,777	$29.01	$10,447	$144.14

IT�S COMPLICATED (Universal)

Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Julie & Julia	8/7/09	2,354		$20.03	$8,508	$94.13
Mamma Mia!	7/18/08	2,976		$27.75	$9,325	$144.13
The Devil Wears Prada	6/30/06	2,847		$27.54	$9,672	$124.74
Prime	10/28/05	1,827		$6.22	$3,405	$22.73
Shopgirl	10/21/05	8		$0.23	$28,711	$10.23
LA Story	2/8/91	1,092		$6.62	$6,062	$28.85
The Holiday	12/8/06	2,610		$12.78	$4,896	$63.22
Something's Gotta Give	12/12/03	2,677		$16.06	$6,001	$111.88
What Women Want	12/15/00	3,012		$33.61	$11,159	$182.81
My Sister's Keeper	6/26/09	2,606		$12.44	$4,774	$49.20
My Best Friend's Girl	9/19/08	2,604		$8.27	$3,174	$19.15
Fun with Dick and Jane	12/23/05	3,056	$7.58	$21.53	$7,045	$109.99
Along Came Polly	1/16/04	2,984		$27.21	$9,290	$87.86
State and Main	1/12/01	459	$2.37	$1.74	$3,802	$6.92
You've Got Mail	12/18/98	2,691		$18.43	$115.73	6.28
Because I Said So	2/2/07	2,526		$13.12	$42.67	3.25

UP IN THE AIR (Paramount)

Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Juno	12/5/07	1,019	$15.38	$10.63	$10,436	$142.11
Thank You For Smoking	4/14/06	1,015	$7.05	$4.49	$4,425	$24.79
The Men Who Stare at Goats	11/6/09	2,443		$12.71	$5,201	$31.76
Burn After Reading	9/12/08	2,651		$19.13	$7,215	$60.36
Michael Clayton	10/5/07	2,511	$1.08	$10.37	$4,131	$49.02
The Good German	12/15/06	5		$0.08	$15,363	$1.30
Syriana	11/25/05	1,752	$1.49	$11.74	$6,699	$50.82
Intolerable Cruelty	10/10/03	2,564		$12.53	$4,885	$35.10
Solaris	11/29/02	2,406	$2.67	$6.75	$2,807	$14.91
Orphan	7/24/09	2,750		$12.87	$4,681	$40.72
Boy in the Striped Pajamas, The	11/7/08	406	$0.98	$1.65	$4,058	$9.03
The Departed	10/6/06	3,017		$26.89	$8,912	$133.31
Rocket Science	8/10/07	6		$0.06	$9,756	$0.71

NINE (The Weinstein Co.)

Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Memoirs of a Geisha	12/9/05	1,547	$3.34	$6.75	$4,364	$56.48
Chicago	2/7/03	1,841	$53.02	$10.79	$5,859	$170.68
There Will Be Blood	12/28/07	885	9.877	$4.87	$5,502	$40.22
Gangs of New York	12/20/02	1,504		$9.12	$6,051	$77.81
Cold Mountain	12/26/03	2,163	$4.51	$14.57	$6,738	$78.38
The Hours	1/17/03	402	$3.78	$4.64	$11,555	$41.60
Moulin Rouge	6/1/01	2,279	$0.68	$13.72	$6,019	$57.22
La Vie en Rose	6/8/07	8		$0.18	$22,481	$10.30
Vicky Christina Barcelona	8/15/08	692		$3.76	$5,427	$23.21
Mamma Mia!	7/18/08	2,976		$27.75	$9,325	$144.13
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street	12/21/07	1,249		$9.30	$7,447	$52.90
Dreamgirls	12/29/06	852	$22.96	$14.10	$16,549	$103.34
The Producers	12/16/05	6		$0.15	$25,765	$19.38
Andrew Lloyd Webber's The Phantom of the Opera	12/24/04	622	$2.32	$4.00	$6,434	$49.44