Weekend Warrior

Box Office Predictions for December 18 - 20, 2009
By Edward Douglas -

This Week's Analysis (updated 12.17.09)

Enjoy the numbers but please do try to check out the preview and analysis posted on the blog at the link above, including reviews, interviews, etc. If you have anything to say about anything written in this column, feedback and Email is always welcome, and almost always responded to.

TW

LW

Title

Weekend (in millions)

Change

# Of Theaters

Average

Week

1

New

Avatar

$72.4

N/A

3,453

$20,967

1

2

1

The Princess and the Frog

$15.5

-37%

3,475

$4,460

4

3

New

Did You Hear About the Morgans?

$11.5

N/A

2,750

$4,231

1

4

2

The Blind Side

$11.0

-29%

3,407

$3,229

5

5

3

Invictus

$5.2

-40%

2,125

$2,447

2

6

5

Disney's A Christmas Carol

$4.8

-30%

2,070

$2,319

7

7

4

The Twilight Saga: New Moon

$4.1

-48%

3,035

$1,351

5

8

11

Up in the Air

$3.2

12%

175

$18,286

3

9

6

Brothers

$3.0

-40%

2,009

$1,493

3

10

7

Old Dogs

$2.7

-39%

2,630

$1,027

4

Est. Weekend Total
$133.40

Est. Avg. Drop-Off
- 31%

Est. Average PTA
$5,981


COMPARISONS:

AVATAR (20th Century Fox)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

Titanic

12/19/97

2,674

$28.64

$10,711

$600.79

Terminator 2

7/5/91

2,274

$20.54

$31.77

$13,971

$204.84

The Abyss

8/11/89

1,533

$3.71

$9.32

$6,080

$54.24

Aliens

7/18/86

1,437

$10.05

$6,995

$85.16

Terminator Salvation

5/21/09

3,530

$42.56

$12,056

$125.32

Vantage Point

2/22/08

3,149

$22.87

$7,264

$72.27

Alien: Resurrection

11/28/97

2,415

$15.69

$6,497

$47.76

King Kong

12/16/05

3,568

$16.05

$50.13

$14,050

$218.05

The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King

12/19/03

3,703

$51.47

$72.62

$19,614

$377.03

The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers

12/20/02

3,622

$40.04

$61.50

$16,980

$340.48

The Lord of the Rings : Fellowship of the Rings

12/21/01

3,359

$27.91

$47.21

$14,055

$313.39

Star Trek

5/8/09

3,849

$79.20

$20.578

$257.70



DID YOU HEAR ABOUT THE MORGANS? (Sony)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

Sex and the City

5/30/08

3,285

$56.85

$17,305

$152.65

Smart People

4/11/08

1,106

$4.09

$3,700

$9.51

The Family Stone

12/16/05

2,466

$12.52

$5,077

$60.06

Failure to Launch

3/10/06

3,057

$24.41

$7,985

$88.72

State and Main

1/12/01

459

$2.37

$1.74

$3,802

$6.92

Music & Lyrics

2/14/07

2,955

$13.62

$4,610

$50.57

Love Actually

11/7/03

576

$6.89

$11,955

$59.08

Two Weeks Notice

12/20/02

2,755

$14.40

$5,227

$88.82

About a Boy

5/17/02

1,207

$8.56

$7,090

$40.57

Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason

11/12/04

530

$8.68

$16,385

$40.20

Bridget Jones's Diary

4/13/01

1,611

$10.73

$6,662

$71.50

Notting Hill

5/28/99

2,745

$22.13

$8,062

$116.09

New in Town

1/30/09

1,941

$6.74

$3,473

$16.70

My Blue Heaven

8/17/90

1,859

$6.21

$3,341

$23.59


Copyright 2009 Edward Douglas

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