Weekend Warrior Box Office Predicions for August 14-16, 2009

Weekend Warrior

Box Office Predictions for December 18 - 20, 2009
By Edward Douglas -

This Week's Analysis (updated 12.17.09)

Enjoy the numbers but please do try to check out the preview and analysis posted on the blog at the link above, including reviews, interviews, etc. If you have anything to say about anything written in this column, feedback and Email is always welcome, and almost always responded to.

TW	LW	Title	Weekend (in millions)	Change	# Of Theaters	Average	Week
1	New	Avatar	$72.4	N/A	3,453	$20,967	1
2	1	The Princess and the Frog	$15.5	-37%	3,475	$4,460	4
3	New	Did You Hear About the Morgans?	$11.5	N/A	2,750	$4,231	1
4	2	The Blind Side	$11.0	-29%	3,407	$3,229	5
5	3	Invictus	$5.2	-40%	2,125	$2,447	2
6	5	Disney's A Christmas Carol	$4.8	-30%	2,070	$2,319	7
7	4	The Twilight Saga: New Moon	$4.1	-48%	3,035	$1,351	5
8	11	Up in the Air	$3.2	12%	175	$18,286	3
9	6	Brothers	$3.0	-40%	2,009	$1,493	3
10	7	Old Dogs	$2.7	-39%	2,630	$1,027	4
			Est. Weekend Total $133.40	Est. Avg. Drop-Off - 31%		Est. Average PTA $5,981

COMPARISONS:

AVATAR (20^th Century Fox)

Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Titanic	12/19/97	2,674		$28.64	$10,711	$600.79
Terminator 2	7/5/91	2,274	$20.54	$31.77	$13,971	$204.84
The Abyss	8/11/89	1,533	$3.71	$9.32	$6,080	$54.24
Aliens	7/18/86	1,437		$10.05	$6,995	$85.16
Terminator Salvation	5/21/09	3,530		$42.56	$12,056	$125.32
Vantage Point	2/22/08	3,149		$22.87	$7,264	$72.27
Alien: Resurrection	11/28/97	2,415		$15.69	$6,497	$47.76
King Kong	12/16/05	3,568	$16.05	$50.13	$14,050	$218.05
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King	12/19/03	3,703	$51.47	$72.62	$19,614	$377.03
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers	12/20/02	3,622	$40.04	$61.50	$16,980	$340.48
The Lord of the Rings : Fellowship of the Rings	12/21/01	3,359	$27.91	$47.21	$14,055	$313.39
Star Trek	5/8/09	3,849		$79.20	$20.578	$257.70

DID YOU HEAR ABOUT THE MORGANS? (Sony)

Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Sex and the City	5/30/08	3,285		$56.85	$17,305	$152.65
Smart People	4/11/08	1,106		$4.09	$3,700	$9.51
The Family Stone	12/16/05	2,466		$12.52	$5,077	$60.06
Failure to Launch	3/10/06	3,057		$24.41	$7,985	$88.72
State and Main	1/12/01	459	$2.37	$1.74	$3,802	$6.92
Music & Lyrics	2/14/07	2,955		$13.62	$4,610	$50.57
Love Actually	11/7/03	576		$6.89	$11,955	$59.08
Two Weeks Notice	12/20/02	2,755		$14.40	$5,227	$88.82
About a Boy	5/17/02	1,207		$8.56	$7,090	$40.57
Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason	11/12/04	530		$8.68	$16,385	$40.20
Bridget Jones's Diary	4/13/01	1,611		$10.73	$6,662	$71.50
Notting Hill	5/28/99	2,745		$22.13	$8,062	$116.09
New in Town	1/30/09	1,941		$6.74	$3,473	$16.70
My Blue Heaven	8/17/90	1,859		$6.21	$3,341	$23.59