Weekend Warrior

Box Office Predictions for December 11 - 13, 2009
By Edward Douglas -

This Week's Analysis (final update 12.10.09)

Enjoy the numbers but please do try to check out the preview and analysis posted on the blog at the link above, including reviews, interviews, etc. If you have anything to say about anything written in this column, feedback and Email is always welcome, and almost always responded to.

TW

LW

Title

Weekend (in millions)

Change

# Of Theaters

Average

Week

1

16

The Princess and the Frog

$25.6

3413%

3,434

$7,455

3

2

1

The Blind Side

$14.0

-33%

3,132

$4,132

4

3

New

Invictus

$13.3

N/A

2,125

$6,259

1

4

2

The Twilight Saga: New Moon

$6.6

-57%

3,635

$1,816

4

5

3

Brothers

$5.5

-42%

2,088

$2,634

2

6

5

Disney's A Christmas Carol

$4.3

-44%

2,402

$1,790

6

7

4

Old Dogs

$3.8

-45%

3,090

$1,230

3

8

7

2012

$3.4

-52%

2,570

$1,323

5

9

6

Armored

$3.3

-49%

1,919

$1,720

2

10

13

Up in the Air

$3.0

481%

72

$41,667

2

Est. Weekend Total
$82.80

Est. Avg. Drop-Off
- 10%

Est. Average PTA
$6,901



COMPARISONS:

THE PRINCESS AND THE FROG (Walt Disney)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

Treasure Planet

11/29/02

3,227

$4.52

$12.08

$3,744

$37.49

Hercules

6/27/97

2,872

$2.21

$21.45

$7,469

$99.06

The Little Mermaid (reissue)

11/14/97

2,054

$9.81

$4,776

$24.47

Aladdin

11/27/92

1,131

$0.67

$19.29

$17,056

$216.97

The Little Mermaid

11/17/89

994

$6.03

$6,066

$84.36

Brother Bear

11/1/03

3,030

$0.40

$19.40

$6,404

$84.45

Lilo & Stitch

6/21/02

3,191

$35.26

$11,049

$145.18

Tarzan

6/18/99

3,005

$0.14

$34.22

$11,388

$170.82

Mulan

6/19/98

2,888

$22.75

$7,877

$120.62

The Lion King

6/24/94

2,552

$3.76

$40.89

$16,023

$312.78

Beauty and the Beast

11/22/91

977

$0.30

$9.62

$9,846

$145.86



INVICTUS (Warner Bros.)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

Million Dollar Baby

12/17/04

2,010

$9.31

$12.27

$6,102

$100.49

Unforgiven

8/7/92

2,071

$15.02

$7,253

$101.16

Gran Torino

12/12/08

2,808

$11.04

$29.48

$10,500

$148.10

Changeling

10/24/08

1,850

0.68

$9.35

$5,055

$35.58

Flags of our Fathers

10/20/06

1,876

$10.25

$5,461

$33.60

Mystic River

10/17/03

1,467

$3.09

$10.45

$7,121

$90.14

The Bucket List

12/28/07

2,911

$1.42

$19.39

$6,662

$93.47

Gone, Baby, Gone

10/19/07

1,713

$5.50

$3,212

$20.30

Lucky Number Slevin

4/7/06

1,984

$7.03

$3,544

$22.50

Shawshank Redemption

10/14/94

944

$4.75

$2.40

$2,542

$28.24

Driving Miss Daisy

1/26/90

895

$10.34

$5.71

$6,380

$106.59

Glory

2/16/90

801

$13.57

$2.68

$3,346

$26.59

The Informant!

9/18/09

2,505

$10.46

$4,177

$33.29

The Good Shepherd

12/22/06

2,215

$10.03

$4,530

$59.91

Hotel Rwanda

12/24/04

319

$4.29

$1.33

$1.33

$4,158

The Last King of Scotland

9/29/06

495

$3.73

$1.61

$3,252

$17.61

JFK

12/20/91

1,164

$5.22

$4,485

$70.41

Ray

10/29/04

2,006

$20.04

$9,990

$75.24


Copyright 2009 Edward Douglas

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