Weekend Warrior

Box Office Predictions for August 7 - 9, 2009
By Edward Douglas -

This Week's Analysis (final update 8.6.09)

Enjoy the numbers but please do try to check out the preview and analysis posted on the blog at the link above, including reviews, interviews, etc. If you have anything to say about anything written in this column, feedback and Email is always welcome, and almost always responded to.

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TW

LW

Title

Weekend (in millions)

Change

# Of Theaters

Average

Week

1

New

G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra

$53.4

N/A

4,007

$13,327

1

2

New

Julie & Julia

$20.2*

N/A

2,975?

$6,790

1

3

1

Funny People

$10.4

-55%

3,008

$3,457

2

4

3

G-Force

$10.2

-42%

3,482

$2,929

3

5

2

Harry Potter/Half-Blood Prince

$9.5

-47%

3,455

$2,750

4

6

New

A Perfect Getaway

$7.3

N/A

2,159

$3,381

1

7

4

The Ugly Truth

$7.0

-47%

2,975

$2,353

3

8

5

Aliens in the Attic

$5.0

-38%

3,108

$1,610

5

9

12

500 Days of Summer

$4.5

67%

1,000

$4,900

2

10

6

Orphan

$4.1

-45%

2,270

$1,806

4

Est. Weekend Total
$131.60

Est. Avg. Drop-Off
- 29%

Est. Average PTA
$4,391

*Seems to be some confusion in terms of the theater count... BoxOfficeMovie has it opening in nearly 3,000 theaters where this number might be reasonable... if it's actually 2354 a/p other sources, it will be closer to $18 million.



COMPARISONS:

G.I. JOE: THE RISE OF COBRA (Paramount)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

Fighting

4/24/09

2,309

$11.02

$4,775

$23.09

Stop-Loss

3/28/08

1,291

$4.55

$3,528

$10.91

Step Up

8/11/06

2,467

$20.66

$8,374

$65.33

Stardust

8/10/07

2,540

$9.17

$3,610

$38.63

Casanova

12/23/05

37

$0.23

$6,245

$11.26

Alfie

11/5/04

2,215

$6.22

$2,807

$13.40

Little Man

7/14/06

2,533

$21.61

$8,533

$58.64

White Chicks

6/25/04

2,726

$7.50

$19.68

$7,218

$69.15

Van Helsing

5/7/04

3,575

$51.75

$14,480

$120.03

The Mummy Returns

5/4/01

3,401

$68.14

$20,035

$202.01

The Mummy

5/7/99

3,210

$43.37

$13,511

$155.25

Transformers

7/6/07

4,011

$84.90

$70.50

$17,577

$319.25

Team America: World Police

10/15/04

2,539

$12.12

$4,774

$32.77

Thunderbirds

7/30/04

2,057

$2.77

$1,345

$6.77



JULIE & JULIA (Sony)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

Mamma Mia!

7/18/08

2,976

$27.75

$9,325

$144.13

The Devil Wears Prada

6/30/06

2,847

$27.54

$9,672

$124.74

Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian

5/22/09

4,096

$54.17

$13,226

$173.02

Sunshine Cleaning

3/13/09

479

$2.90

$1.81

$3,773

$12.06

Doubt

12/12/08

1,267

$3.15

$5.34

$4,214

$33.42

Miss Pettigrew Lives for a Day

3/7/08

535

$2.49

$4,656

$13.31

Enchanted

11/21/07

3,730

14.619

$34.44

$9,233

$127.71

Bewitched

6/24/05

3,174

$20.13

$6,343

$62.25

You've Got Mail

12/18/98

2,691

$18.43

$6,849

$115.73

Sleepless in Seattle

6/26/93

1,579

$17.25

$10,925

$126.68

No Reservations

7/27/07

2,425

$11.70

$4,827

$43.10

Mamma Mia!

7/18/08

2,976

$27.75

$9,325

$144.13



A PERFECT GETAWAY (Rogue Pictures)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

Hitman

11/21/07

2,458

$7.91

$13.18

$5,362

$39.69

Live Free or Die Hard

6/29/07

3,408

$33.37

$9,792

$134.53

Resident Evil: Extinction

9/21/07

2,828

$23.68

$8,373

$50.65

Resident Evil: Apocalypse

9/10/04

3,284

$23.04

$7,015

$50.74

Resident Evil

3/15/02

2,528

$17.71

$7,004

$39.53

Ultraviolet

3/3/06

2,558

$9.06

$3,544

$18.52

The Ruins

4/4/08

2,812

$8.00

$2,846

$17.43

Turistas

12/1/06

1,570

$3.53

$2,282

$7.03

The Chronicles of Riddick

6/11/04

2,757

$24.29

$8,810

$57.64

Below

10/11/02

168

$0.20

$1,199

$0.59

Pitch Black

2/18/00

1,832

$11.58

$6,321

$39.24

Taking Lives

3/19/04

2,705

$11.46

$4,236

$32.68

Murder By Numbers

4/19/02

2,642

$9.31

$3,495

$31.87

Se7en

9/22/95

2,441

$13.95

$5,715

$100.12


Copyright 2009 Edward Douglas

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