Weekend Warrior

Box Office Predictions for August 14 - 16, 2009
By Edward Douglas -

This Week's Analysis (final update 8.13.09)

Enjoy the numbers but please do try to check out the preview and analysis posted on the blog at the link above, including reviews, interviews, etc. If you have anything to say about anything written in this column, feedback and Email is always welcome, and almost always responded to.

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TW

LW

Title

Weekend (in millions)

Change

# Of Theaters

Average

Week

1

New

District 9

$33.0

N/A

3,049

$10,823

1

2

1

G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra

$24.0

-56%

4,007

$5,990

2

3

New

The Time Traveler's Wife

$19.5

N/A

2,988

$6,526

1

4

2

Julie & Julia

$11.6

-42%

2,354

$4,754

2

5

New

The Goods: Live Hard. Sell Hard.

$5.9

N/A

1,838

$3,210

1

6

3

G-Force

$5.5

-45%

3,065

$1,794

4

7

4

Harry Potter/Half-Blood Prince

$4.6

-47%

2,771

$1,660

5

8

New

Bandslam

$4.0

N/A

2,121

$1,886

1

9

New

Ponyo

$3.8

N/A

927

$4,099

1

10

6

(500) Days of Summer

$3.8

0%

1,048

$3,626

6

Est. Weekend Total
$115.70

Est. Avg. Drop-Off
- 38%

Est. Average PTA
$4,454



COMPARISONS:

DISTRICT 9 (Sony)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

Cloverfield

1/18/08

3,411

$40.06

$11,744

$80.05

28 Days Later

6/27/03

1,260

$10.06

$7,985

$45.06

Men In Black

7/4/97

3,020

$33.06

$51.07

$16,911

$250.15

The Blair Witch Project

7/30/99

1,101

$6.93

$29.21

$26,530

$140.53

King Kong

12/16/05

3,568

$16.05

$50.13

$14,050

$218.05

Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow

9/17/04

3,170

$15.58

$4,915

$37.76

Cloverfield

1/18/08

3,411

$40.06

$11,744

$80.05

28 Days Later

6/27/03

1,260

$10.06

$7,985

$45.06


THE TIME TRAVELER'S WIFE (New Line/WB)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

State of Play

4/17/09

2,803

$14.07

$5,020

$37.02

The Family Stone

12/16/05

2,466

$12.52

$5,077

$60.06

Red Eye

8/19/05

3,079

$16.17

$5,251

$57.86

Wedding Crashers

7/15/05

2,925

$33.90

$11,590

$209.22

The Notebook

6/25/04

2,303

$13.46

$5,847

$79.67

Mean Girls

4/30/04

2,839

$24.43

$8,606

$86.05

The Other Boleyn Girl

2/29/08

1,166

$8.20

$7,035

$26.81

Lucky You

5/4/07

2,525

$2.71

$1,073

$5.76

Munich

12/23/05

532

$6.04

$11,355

$47.38

Troy

5/14/04

3,411

$46.87

$13,739

$133.23

Nights in Rodanthe

9/26/08

2,704

$13.42

$4,962

$42.56

The Lake House

6/16/06

2,645

$13.62

$5,148

$52.33

The Butterfly Effect

1/23/04

2,605

$17.07

$6,551

$57.65



THE GOODS: LIVE HARD *SELL HARD (Paramount)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

The Hangover

6/5/09

3,269

$44.98

$13,759

$255.89

Smokin' Aces

1/26/07

2,218

$14.64

$6,600

$35.66

Old School

2/21/03

2,689

$17.45

$6,491

$75.16

Very Bad Things

11/25/98

1,260

$4.66

$3,698

$9.90

Drillbit Taylor

3/21/08

3056

$10.31

$3,374

$32.86

Strange Wilderness

2/1/08

1,208

$3.00

$2,485

$6.56

The Heartbreak Kid

10/5/07

3,229

$14.02

$4,343

$36.79

Grandma's Boy

1/6/06

2,016

$3.01

$1,493

$6.09

Step Brothers

7/25/08

3,094

$30.94

$10,000

$100.47

Talladega Nights

8/4/06

3,803

$47.04

$12,370

$148.21

The Hangover

6/5/09

3,269

$44.98

$13,759

$255.89



BANDSLAM (Summit Entertainment)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

High School Musical 3: Senior Year

10/24/08

3,623

$42.03

$11,601

$90.56

Hotel for Dogs

1/16/09

3,271

$17.01

$5,201

$73.03

Marci X

8/22/03

1,200

$0.87

$727

$1.65

The Rocker

8/20/08

2,784

$2.64

$947

$6.41

August Rush

11/17/07

2,310

$9.42

$4,079

$31.66

The School of Rock

10/3/03

2,614

$19.62

$7,507

$81.05

Rock Star

9/7/01

2,525

$6.02

$2,384

$16.99

Camp

7/25/03

3

$0.05

$18,098

$1.63

Undiscovered

8/26/05

1,304

$0.68

$518

$1.05

From Justin to Kelly

6/20/03

2,001

$2.72

$1,357

$4.92

Crossroads

2/15/02

2,380

$17.01

$7,149

$37.19



PONYO (Disney)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

Howl's Moving Castle

6/10/05

36

$0.43

$11,889

$4.71

Spirited Away

9/20/02

26

$0.45

$17,302

$10.05

Princess Mononoke

10/29/99

8

$0.14

$18,056

$2.37


Copyright 2009 Edward Douglas

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