Weekend Warrior Box Office Predicions for April 24-26, 2009

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Weekend Warrior

Box Office Predictions for April 24 - 26, 2009
By Edward Douglas -

This Week's Analysis (final update 4.23.09)

Enjoy the numbers but please do try to check out the preview and analysis posted on the blog at the link above, including reviews, interviews, etc. If you have anything to say about anything written in this column, feedback and Email is always welcome, and almost always responded to.

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TW	LW	Title	Weekend (in millions)	Change	# Of Theaters	Average	Week
1	New	Obsessed	$18.4	N/A	2,514	$7,319	1
2	1	17 Again	$11.4	-52%	3,260	$3,502	2
3	New	The Soloist	$10.3	N/A	2,024	$5,089	1
4	New	Earth	$8.8	N/A	1,800	$4,878	1
5	2	State of Play	$8.5	-39%	2,803	$3,028	2
6	3	Monsters vs. Aliens	$8.1	-37%	3,300	$2,412	5
7	New	Fighting	$7.7	N/A	2,310	$3,333	1
8	4	Hannah Montana The Movie	$6.3	-50%	2,950	$1,950	3
9	5	Fast & Furious	$5.5	-52%	3,472	$1,543	4
10	3	Crank: High Voltage	$2.7	-62%	2,223	$1,215	2
			Est. Weekend Total $87.70	Est. Avg. Drop-Off - 49%		Est. Average PTA $3,427

COMPARISONS:
OBSESSED (Screen Gems)

Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Cadillac Records	12/5/08	687		$3.45	$5,015	$8.14
Dreamgirls	12/29/06	852	$22.96	$14.10	$16,549	$103.34
Fighting Temptations	9/19/03	2,026		$11.76	$5,804	$30.24
The Unborn	1/9/09	2,357		$19.81	$8,405	$42.67
Prom Night	4/11/08	2,700		$20.80	$7,706	$43.82
Resident Evil: Extinction	9/21/07	2,828		$23.68	$8,373	$50.65
Final Destination 2	1/31/03	2,834		$16.02	$5,652	$46.90
Final Destination	3/17/00	2,585		$10.02	$3,876	$53.30
Lakeview Terrace	9/19/08	2,464		$15.00	$6,090	$39.26
Perfect Stranger	4/13/07	2,661		$11.21	$4,211	$23.71
Domestic Disturbance	11/2/01	2,910		$14.03	$4,822	$45.21
Disclosure	12/9/94	1,675		$10.07	$6,012	$83.02
Malice	10/1/93	1,431		$9.23	$6,450	$46.04
Basic Instinct	3/20/92	1,567		$15.13	$9,655	$117.73
Fatal Attraction	9/18/87	758		$7.60	$10,030	$156.65

THE SOLOIST (DreamWorks)

Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Dreamgirls	12/29/06	852	$22.96	$14.10	$16,549	$103.34
Ray	10/29/04	2,006		$20.04	$9,990	$75.24
Collateral	8/6/04	3,188		$24.70	$7,748	$101.00
Tropic Thunder	8/13/08	3,319	$11.03	$25.81	$7,777	$110.46
Iron Man	5/2/08	4,105	$3.50	$98.62	$24,877	$316.04
Charlie Bartlett	2/22/08	1,122		$1.84	$1,637	$3.95
Resurrecting the Champ	8/24/07	1,605		$1.66	$1,034	$3.17
Music of the Heart	10/29/99	1,349		$3.65	$2,706	$14.85
Mr. Holland's Opus	1/19/96	1,409	$0.02	$9.26	$6,572	$82.58
Radio	10/25/03	3,074		$13.30	$4,326	$52.28

FIGHTING (Rogue Pictures)

Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Stop-Loss	3/28/08	1,291		$4.55	$3,528	$10.91
Step Up	8/11/06	2,467		$20.66	$8,374	$65.33
She's the Man	3/17/06	2,623		$10.73	$4,091	$33.90
August Rush	11/17/07	2,310		$9.42	$4,079	$31.66
The Brave One	9/14/07	2,755		$13.47	$4,890	$36.79
Pride	3/23/07	1,518		$3.53	$2,328	$7.06
Get Rich or Die Tryin'	11/11/05	1,652	$5.70	$12.02	$7,277	$30.98
Four Brothers	8/12/05	2,533		$21.18	$8,360	$73.62
Hustle & Flow	7/22/05	1,013		$8.02	$7,915	$22.18
Crash	5/6/05	1,864		$9.11	$4,886	$54.56
Redbelt	5/2/08	1,379	$0.10	$1.01	$734	$2.34
Never Back Down	3/14/08	2,729		$8.60	$3,153	$24.85

EARTH (Disneynature)

Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
March of the Penguins	6/24/05	1,867	$19.30	$7.12	$3,812	$77.41
Two Brothers	6/25/04	2,175		$6.14	$2,825	$18.95
Homeward Bound 2	3/8/96	2,119		$8.61	$4,063	$32.74
Homeward Bound	2/12/93	1,702	$0.10	$8.21	$4,824	$41.65
The Bear	10/27/89	858	$0.02	$3.68	$4,289	$29.56