The Weekend Warrior

Box Office Predictions for May 23 - 26, 2008
By Edward Douglas -

This Week's Analysis (final update 5.22.08)

(Enjoy the numbers but please do try to check out the preview and analysis posted on the blog at the link above, including reviews, interviews, etc. If you have anything to say about anything written in this column, feedback and Email is always welcome, and almost always responded to.)

TW

LW

Title

Weekend (in millions)

Change

# Of Theaters

Average

Week

1

New

Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull

$128.6

N/A

4,260

$30,188

1

2

1

Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian

$35.2

-36%

3,929

$8,959

2

3

2

Iron Man

$20.6

-35%

3,915

$5,262

4

4

3

What Happens in Vegas

$9.5

-32%

3,187

$2,981

3

5

4

Speed Racer

$5.0

-39%

3,112

$1,607

3

6

6

Baby Mama

$3.4

-27%

2,152

$1,580

5

7

5

Made of Honor

$3.1

-34%

2,393

$1,295

4

8

7

Forgetting Sarah Marshall

$2.2

-22%

1,072

$2,052

6

9

8

Harold & Kumar Escape…

$1.0

-49%

750

$1,333

5

10

10

The Visitor

$0.9

27%

270

$3,148

6

Est. Weekend Total
$209.45

Est. Avg. Drop-Off
- 27%

Est. Average PTA
$5,841



COMPARISONS:

INDIANA JONES AND THE KINGDOM OF THE CRYSTAL SKULL (Paramount)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade

5/26/89

2,327

$9.90

$37.03

$15,913

$197.17

Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom

5/23/84

1,687

$25.34

$15,019

$179.87

Raiders of the Lost Ark

6/12/81

1,078

$8.31

$7,705

$245.03

The Lost World

5/23/97

3,281

$2.57

$90.16

$27,480

$229.09

Jurassic Park

6/12/93

2,404

$50.16

$20,865

$356.78

War of the Worlds

7/1/05

3,908

$35.68

$77.06

$19,719

$233.58

Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith

5/20/05

3,661

$50.01

$108.44

$29,619

$380.21

Star Wars: Episode II - Attack of the Clones

5/16/02

3,161

$30.14

$80.03

$25,317

$302.18

Star Wars: Episode 1 - The Phantom Menace

5/21/99

2,970

$41.76

$64.81

$21,822

$431.07

Firewall

2/10/06

2,840

$13.64

$4,801

$48.75

Hollywood Homicide

6/13/03

2,840

$11.11

$3,914

$30.21

Transformers

7/2/07

4,011

$84.90

$70.50

$17,577

$319.25

Disturbia

4/13/08

2,925

$22.22

$7,598

$80.21

X-Men: The Last Stand

5/26/06

3,690

$122.86

$33,295

$234.36

X2: X-Men United

5/2/03

3,741

$85.56

$22,871

$214.95

Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End

5/25/07

4,362

$13.24

$138.80

$32,050

$309.40

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest

7/7/06

4,133

$135.62

$32,817

$423.27

Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines

7/4/03

3,504

$28.35

$44.04

$12,569

$150.35

Terminator 2

7/5/91

2,274

$20.54

$31.77

$13,971

$204.84

The Day After Tomorrow

5/28/04

3,425

$85.81

$25,053

$186.58

Pearl Harbor

5/25/01

3,214

$75.18

$23,390

$198.54

Live Free or Die Hard

6/29/07

3,408

$33.37

$9,792

$134.53



POSTAL (Freestyle Releasing)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

In the Name of the King

1/11/08

1,632

$2.98

$599

$4.54

Bloodrayne

1/6/06

986

$1.55

$1,574

$2.41

Alone in the Dark

1/28/05

2,124

$2.83

$1,334

$5.13

House of the Dead

10/10/03

1,520

$5.68

$3,734

$10.20

National Lampoon's Gold Diggers

9/17/04

1,062

$0.39

$369

$0.39

American Dreamz

4/21/06

1,500

$3.67

$2,445

$7.31


Copyright 2008 Edward Douglas


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