The Weekend Warrior

Box Office Predictions for May 16 - 18, 2008
By Edward Douglas -

This Week's Analysis (final update 5.15.08)

(Enjoy the numbers but please do try to check out the preview and analysis posted on the blog at the link above, including reviews, interviews, etc. If you have anything to say about anything written in this column, feedback and Email is always welcome, and almost always responded to.)

TW

LW

Title

Weekend (in millions)

Change

# Of Theaters

Average

Week

1

New

Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian

$84.2

N/A

3,929

$21,430

1

2

1

Iron Man

$27.8

-46%

4,154

$6,692

3

3

2

What Happens in Vegas

$11.5

-44%

3,255

$3,533

2

4

3

Speed Racer

$9.1

-52%

3,606

$2,524

2

5

4

Made of Honor

$4.6

-44%

2,816

$1,634

3

6

5

Baby Mama

$3.8

-40%

2,500

$1,520

4

7

6

Forgetting Sarah Marshall

$2.0

-38%

1,604

$1,247

5

8

7

Harold & Kumar Escape…

$1.5

-62%

1,403

$1,069

4

9

8

The Forbidden Kingdom

$0.9

-54%

997

$1,003

5

10

10

Nim's Island

$0.7

-51%

894

$783

7

Est. Weekend Total
$146.20

Est. Avg. Drop-Off
- 47%

Est. Average PTA
$4,141



COMPARISONS:

THE CHRONICLES OF NARNIA: PRINCE CASPIAN (Walt Disney)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, The Witch, and the Wardrobe

12/9/05

3,616

$65.56

$18,130

$291.17

Shrek the Third

5/18/07

4,122

$0.91

$121.63

$29,507

$320.71

Shrek 2

5/21/04

4,163

$20.95

$108.04

$25,952

$436.47

Shrek

5/18/01

3,587

$0.04

$42.35

$11,805

$267.65

The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King

12/19/03

3,703

$51.47

$72.62

$19,614

$377.03

The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers

12/20/02

3,622

$40.04

$61.50

$16,980

$340.48

The Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Rings

12/21/01

3,359

$27.91

$47.21

$14,055

$313.39

The Spiderwick Chronicles

2/14/08

3,847

$2.38

$19.00

$4,940

$71.15

The Golden Compass

12/7/07

3,528

$25.78

$7,308

$69.25

Stardust

8/10/07

2,540

$9.17

$3,610

$38.63

Eragon

12/15/06

3,020

$23.24

$7,695

$75.03

Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith

5/20/05

3,661

$50.01

$108.44

$29,619

$380.21

Star Wars: Episode II - Attack of the Clones

5/16/02

3,161

$30.14

$80.03

$25,317

$302.18

Star Wars: Episode 1 - The Phantom Menace

5/21/99

2,970

$41.76

$64.81

$21,822

$431.07

The Matrix Reloaded

5/16/03

3,603

$42.51

$91.77

$25,471

$281.91

The Da Vinci Code

5/19/06

3,735

$77.07

$20,635

$217.54


Copyright 2008 Edward Douglas


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