The Weekend Warrior

Box Office Predictions for April 11 - 13, 2008
By Edward Douglas -

This Week's Analysis (final update 4.10.08)

(Enjoy the numbers but please do try to check out the preview and analysis posted on the blog at the link above, including reviews, interviews, etc. If you have anything to say about anything written in this column, feedback and Email is always welcome, and almost always responded to.)

TW

LW

Title

Weekend (in millions)

Change

# Of Theaters

Average

Week

1

New

Prom Night

$17.5

N/A

2,700

$6,481

1

2

New

Street Kings

$10.2

N/A

2,467

$4,135

1

3

1

21

$9.8

-37%

2,736

$3,582

3

4

2

Nim's Island

$8.3

-38%

3,518

$2,359

2

5

3

Leatherheads

$7.0

-45%

2,771

$2,526

2

6

4

Dr. Seuss' Horton Hears a Who

$5.2

-43%

3,209

$1,620

5

7

5

The Ruins

$4.1

-49%

2,814

$1,457

2

8

New

Smart People

$3.8

N/A

1,106

$3,436

1

9

6

Superhero Movie

$3.0

-45%

2,550

$1,176

3

10

7

Drillbit Taylor

$1.9

-41%

2,205

$907

5

Est. Weekend Total
$70.90

Est. Avg. Drop-Off
- 42%

Est. Average PTA
$2,768


COMPARISONS:

PROM NIGHT (Sony/Screen Gems)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

Black Christmas

12/25/06

1,544

$7.20

$3.72

$2,412

$16.24

When A Stranger Calls

2/3/06

2,999

$21.61

$7,205

$47.86

House of Wax

5/6/05

3,111

$12.08

$3,882

$32.05

Boogeyman

2/4/05

3,052

$19.02

$6,232

$46.36

The Amityville Horror

4/15/05

3,323

$23.51

$7,074

$64.26

Disturbia

4/13/08

2,925

$22.22

$7,598

$80.21

P2

11/9/07

2,131

$2.08

$978

$6.35

Captivity

7/13/07

1,061

$1.43

$1,347

$2.69

Black Christmas

12/25/06

1,544

$7.20

$3.72

$2,412

$16.24


STREET KINGS (Fox Searchlight)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

The Lake House

6/16/06

2,645

$13.62

$5,148

$52.30

Constantine

2/18/05

3,006

$33.62

$11,186

$75.50

Harsh Times

11/10/06

956

$1.97

$2,059

$3.34

Training Day

10/5/01

2,712

$22.55

$7,315

$76.26

The Black Dahlia

9/15/06

2,226

$10.01

$4,495

$22.67

Dark Blue

2/21/03

2,176

$3.88

$1,783

$9.24

L.A. Confidential

9/19/97

769

$5.21

$6,775

$64.62

Waist Deep

6/23/06

1,004

$9.40

$9,367

$21.34

Never Die Alone

3/26/04

1,161

$3.09

$2,661

$5.64

Exit Wounds

3/16/01

2,830

$18.49

$6,532

$51.76

Get Rich or Die Tryin'

11/11/05

1,652

$5.70

$12.02

$7,277

$30.98


SMART PEOPLE (Miramax)

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

In Good Company

12/31/04

1,566

$0.49

$14.28

$9,125

$45.32

The Flight of the Phoenix

12/17/04

2,604

$5.02

$1,928

$21.01

The Alamo

4/9/04

2,609

$9.12

$3,497

$22.41

Cold Creek Manor

9/19/03

2,035

$8.19

$4,025

$21.38

Frequency

4/28/00

2,621

$9.03

$3,445

$44.98

Failure to Launch

3/10/06

3,057

$24.41

$7,985

$88.72

The Family Stone

12/16/05

2,466

$12.52

$5,077

$60.06

Juno

12/5/07

1,019

$15.38

$10.63

$10,436

$142.11

Sideways

10/22/04

497

$7.03

$2.91

$5,861

$71.50

Dan in Real Life

10/26/07

1,921

$11.81

$6,148

$47.64

Little Miss Sunshine

7/26/06

1,430

$15.51

$7.37

$5,155

$59.89

Moonlight Mile

10/4/02

434

$0.45

$1.88

$4,338

$6.79

Reign Over Me

3/23/07

1,671

$7.46

$4,465

$19.66

Spanglish

12/17/04

2,438

$8.82

$3,617

$42.04


Copyright 2008 Edward Douglas


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