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The Weekend Warrior
Your Weekly Guide to New Movies for
May 4, 2007
By Edward Douglas -
Greetings and welcome back to the Weekend
Warrior, your weekly guide to the weekend's new movies. Tune in every
Tuesday for the latest look at the upcoming weekend, and then
check
back on
Friday for final projections based on actual theatre counts.
(If you have anything to say about anything
written in this column, feedback and Email is always welcome, and almost always
responded to.)
THE WEEKEND PREDICTIONS: (final update 5.3.07)
|
TW |
LW |
Title |
Weekend (in millions) |
Change |
# Of Theaters |
Average |
Week |
|
1 |
New |
Spider-Man 3 |
$133.6* |
N/A |
4,252* |
$31,390 |
1 |
|
2 |
New |
Lucky You |
$7.0 |
N/A |
2,525 |
$2,772 |
1 |
|
3 |
1 |
Disturbia |
$4.8 |
-47% |
3,132 |
$1,533 |
4 |
|
4 |
4 |
Fracture |
$3.8 |
-45% |
2,450 |
$1,551 |
3 |
|
5 |
2 |
The Invisible |
$3.7 |
-52% |
2,019 |
$1,833 |
2 |
|
6 |
3 |
Next |
$3.4 |
-53% |
2,733 |
$1,244 |
2 |
|
7 |
7 |
Hot Fuzz |
$2.6 |
-48% |
1,266 |
$2,054 |
3 |
|
8 |
6 |
Meet the Robinsons |
$2.6 |
-45% |
2,107 |
$1,234 |
6 |
|
9 |
5 |
Blades of Glory |
$2.5 |
-45% |
2,113 |
$1,183 |
6 |
|
10 |
8 |
Vacancy |
$1.8 |
-55% |
1,698 |
$1,060 |
3 |
| |
|
|
Est. Weekend Total
$165.90 |
Est. Avg. Drop-Off
-49% |
|
Est. Average PTA
$4,588 |
|
After one of the worst weekends at the box office in seven months, things are
looking to pick up slightly—and by that I mean, "If you work in a theatre, you
better be prepared to get slammed this weekend!"--as the first weekend in May
officially kicks off the summer movie season. (Hip, hip, hooray!) Sam Raimi's
long-awaited third chapter in the Spider-Man saga (AKA Spider-Man
3) opens on Thursday night at midnight, and being one of the most anticipated
movies of the year and summer, it should do quite a lot of business. But that's
kind of a no-brainer, isn't it? As is the fact that it will be #1 by a wide margin,
making more on Friday than every other movie in theatres makes cumulatively over
the entire weekend. It's guaranteed to open over $100 million and very likely
beat the record set by the original Spider-Man five years ago. The big
question is whether it will break the new opening weekend record set by Pirates
of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest, and my gut instinct says, "No, it won't
happen" for reasons you'll have to read in the detailed analysis below.
(*UPDATE: Opening in 4,253 theatres, the widest release for a movie ever, Sony is
making a huge play to take back the opening weekend record that was stolen from
them by Pirates last summer, and though I'm still not convinced
Spider-Man 3 can do it opening so early in the season, the IMAX
showings might make the biggest difference as many, if not most, of the weekend
shows are already sold out. Since IMAX tickets tend to be priced higher with
larger venues, one can expect that to add a lot of additional revenue which wasn't
available to Spider-Man 2 in its opening weekend or Dead
Man's Chest. It will be a squeaker either way, and if a new record is
set, it won't be broken by the impending Pirates threequel.
For the five people in the universe who have no interest in seeing Spider-Man
3—three of whom don't even have a computer or internet access—they'll
have one other choice in wide release, being the Drew Barrymore and Eric
Bana poker drama Lucky You, a film by Curtis Hanson that has been
delayed for more than a year. Maybe it can get some spillover business
or a few of the moviegoers who like a bit of leg and elbow room when they
go see their movies…and in that respect, they may even have some room to
lie down. It'll be a weak #2 followed by everything else, nothing else
making more than $5 million over the weekend.
Last summer and May kicked off with another 3-quel, that being Tom Cruise's Mission:
Impossible 3, which wound up making less its opening weekend than the
previous two installments, grossing $47.7 million over the weekend. (It
would be seen as a disappointment that would have Paramount severing ties
with Cruise a few months later.) Robin William's RV held up well,
while opening in third place was Courtney Solomon's period ghost film An
American Haunting ended up making just under $6 million its opening
weekend. The only other movie opening in wide release was New Line's Hoot,
which made an embarrassing $3.4 million in over 3,000 theatres. The Top
10 movies at the box office grossed $93.8 million, a number that will be
surpassed by Spider-Man 2 on its own.
THE CHOSEN ONE:
Although Spider-Man 3 will be an obvious choice for 99.8% of America this
weekend, there are a few other noteworthy films for those looking for a bit of
romantic drama or comedy who can't bear another Drew Barrymore movie (you know
who you are):
 AWAY FROM HER (Lionsgate)
Starring Julie Christie, Gordon Pinsent, Olympia Dukakis, Wendy Crewson, Michael
Murphy, Kristen Thomson, Alberta Watson
Written and directed by Sarah Polley (debut feature from the actress and director
of various short films)
Genre: Drama
Rated PG-13
Tagline: "Sometimes you have to let go of what you can't live without."
Plot Summary: A man (Gordon Pinsent) who has been married for nearly 45
years is forced to face the institutionalization of his wife Fiona (Julie Christie)
when she starts showing signs of Alzheimer's. After a mandatory 30-day period
of separation from her, he's bothered by the fact that she seems to have forgotten
him and their marriage as she's become involved with another man.
Of Note: For her debut feature film as a director, actress Sarah Polley
adapts Alice Munro's short story "The Bear Came over the Mountain."
INTERVIEW (with Sarah Polley)
REVIEW (Coming Soon!)
It's not often that a movie about a subject matter you wouldn't think might be
of interest surpasses any expectations and surprises you with how much you enjoy
it, but that was the case with this wonderful romantic drama from Canada's Sarah
Polley. Maybe I just didn't have that many expectations the first time I saw Away
from Her in January before it played at the Sundance Film Festival, because
I knew Polley more for being that annoying little girl in Terry Gilliam's The
Adventures of Baron Munchausen and the foxy young woman in the remake of Dawn
of the Dead. I've never seen any of her short films, but if Away from Her
is any indication, a lot of the filmmaking talent she's worked with (including
fellow Torontans David Cronenberg and Atom Egoyan) has rubbed off on her. Essentially,
the movie is a love story between an elderly couple who have been married for
45 years and what happens when mental illness, in this case Alzheimer's, affects
the mind of one of them, driving a wedge between them. Julie Christie has always
been an amazing actress going back to her days in Dr. Zhivago, and while
this is a similarly epic romance, this is a different role for her, not always
a sympathetic one, but she gives a stunning performance, really transforming herself
and making you believe. Gordon Pinsent isn't as well known actor here in the States
but he does just an amazing job as the husband who has to watch his wife's mind
and memory start disappearing, and I was equally impressed with the always great
Olympia Dukakis in a supporting role as the woman whose husband gets close to
Christie while they're both in the nursing home. I wouldn't be too surprised if
many of these names are mentioned when it comes to awards time later in the year,
and hopefully, the movie can find an audience despite the difficult summer release.
It will open in select cities on Friday.
 WAITRESS (Fox Searchlight)
Starring Keri Russell, Nathan Fillion, Cheryl Hines, Adrienne Shelly, Jeremy
Sisto, Andy Griffith, Eddie Jemison, Lew Temple
Written and directed by Adrienne Shelly
Genre: Comedy, Romance
Rated PG-13
Tagline: "If only life were as easy as pie."
Plot Summary: Waitress and piemaker Jenna (Keri Russell) has just discovered
that she's pregnant by her abusive husband Earl (Jeremy Sisto) but when she meets
the kindly new town gynecologist Dr. Pomatter (Nathan Fillion), they start a
torid love affair that could only lead to more troubles.
Of Note: The late Adrienne Shelly's final movie was one of the highlights
of this year's Sundance Film Festival.
REVIEW (Coming Soon!)
INTERVIEW (with Keri Russell)
Even more tragic than the story told in Sarah Polley's Away From Her is
the story of actress and filmmaker Adrienne Shelly, whose film Waitress
was accepted as part of the Sundance Film festival only for her to be murdered
in her New York City apartment shortly after in a bizarre incident that shocked
the city. Fortunately, the movie was finished and accepted and after screening
at the festival, it was picked up by Fox Searchlight. Almost as tragic as Shelly's
untimely death is the fact that her movie is wonderful, just a funny and poignant
tale about a small town woman in an abusive marriage and how getting pregnant
and having a baby changes her life. Shelly wrote a really sharp script that's
delivered by one of the best ensemble cast, including Keri Russell AKA "Felicity"
as Jena in what could be one of the better roles of her career with Shelly and
Cheryl "Curb Your Enthusiasm" Hines as Jena's fellow waitresses. They're both
great as is Nathan Fillion, who steps up to the plate as the film's romantic lead,
an unassuming gynecologist who falls for Jenna, and a surprisingly funny performance
by Jeremy Sisto as Jena's abusive and needy husband Earl. The movie also includes
one of the first appearances on the big screen by Andy Griffith in a long time,
who plays Old Joe, owner of the pie shop where Jena works. A lot of the fun comes
from Russell's dead-pan delivery of Shelly's dialogue and the inventive pies she
comes up with to express what's on her mind, including the likes of "I Hate My
Husband Pie." Waitress really is a lovely posthumous testimonial to Shelly's
talents, one that should offer plenty of laughs and food for thought to anyone
who sees it. It will open exclusively in New York on Wednesday, May 2, and then
expands into other major markets on Friday.
 SPIDER-MAN 3 (Sony)
Starring Tobey Maguire, Kirsten Dunst, James Franco, Thomas Haden Church, Topher
Grace, Bryce Dallas Howard, James Cromwell, Rosemary Harris, JK Simmons, Elizabeth
Banks, Willem Dafoe, Bruce Campbell,
Directed by Sam Raimi (The Evil Dead, Evil Dead 2, Spider-Man, Spider-Man
2, Darkman, The Quick and the Dead, The Gift, A Simple Plan);
Written by Alvin Sargent (Spider-Man 2, Ordinary People, Hero, What
About Bob?), Sam Raimi and Ivan Raimi (Darkman, Army of Darkness)
Genre: Action, Adventure, Drama, Superhero
Rated PG-13
Tagline: "The battle within."
Plot Summary: Things are going much better for Peter Parker (Tobey Maguire)
these days as his alter-ego Spider-Man is more popular than ever and he's about
to ask MJ (Kirsten Dunst) to marry him. That changes when he's forced to face
his old friend Harry (James Franco) who has taken on the Goblin mantle of his
father, and new villains in Flint Marko AKA The Sandman (Thomas Haden Church)
and competing photographer Eddie Brock (Topher Grace).
Of Note: It's the 3-quel to Sam Raimi's blockbuster franchise and the most
successful comic based movies ever made.
Mini-Review: People may be arguing for the rest of the summer whether
part 3 is better than the previous sequel or the original movie, but you have
to give Sam Raimi credit for creating one of the most impressive action and effects
movies of the franchise. A lot of the movie's best moments come from the introduction
of three villains, Harry Osborn's new Goblin, Flint Marko/Sandman (Thomas Haden
Church) and Eddie Brock/Venom (Topher Grace). The new Goblin might be one of
the most impressive costume and weapon design combos in years, definitely a pinnacle
for movie villains, while the latter two allow Raimi's CG team to flex their
muscles as they reinvent the characters for non-comic readers with some
of the most jaw-dropping special effects scenes in recent memory. That said,
fans
of
the
comic
book should be sated with the way aspects of the comic book characters
are incorporated into the movie, though few will be nearly as happy by the way
the
first
movie is retconned using the Flint
Marko
character.
The
movie's biggest problem is structural, as it introduces too many new characters
and storylines at once with the symbiote black suit storyline only being hinted
at
during the first hour and then becoming the main focus of the movie in the second
half. Bryce Dallas Howard's Gwen Stacy is the least necessary part
of this story, introduced simply to appease fans and add conflict. Most of the
ups
and
downs in the relationship between Peter and MJ seem very forced, shoehorned
into
the
movie
merely to set things up for later scenes. Surprisingly, James Franco steals the
movie, first as the new Goblin and then with a hot-cold performance as Harry
Osborn
that almost surpasses that of Willem Dafoe in the original movie. He's clearly
the actor and character who has evolved the most over the previous two movies,
creating a satisfying third character arc for the series. Even with the introduction
of
the
more violent black-suited
Spidey,
the
movie
isn't all dark and serious, as Peter Parker's symbiote-influenced transformation
also allows for a silly but fun musical tribute to "The Nutty Professor." All
of
the various storylines and characters culminate in an impressive super-villain
team-up
that exceeds similar attempts in the "Batman" franchise, leading to a satisfying
finale. Overall, the movie is an entertaining two and a half hours of action
and fun that certainly can afford to be seen more than once to really appreciate
how
Raimi and his cast have grown since the first movie. Personally, I feel it's
the best of the three movies due to the added complexities in its storytelling
and
the evolution and growth of the characters as a whole since the first movie. Rating 8/10
Analysis: One could say that there never has been a movie or a situation like
the one faced by Spider-Man 3 this summer in that it's the third movie
in a franchise that has grossed over $770 million in the U.S. alone. It's the
fifth comic book movie to attain a third film and only the third one released
in the 21st Century following X-Men: The Last Stand and Blade:
Trinity, and everyone who made the first two movies so big are back on board
for the threequel including director Sam Raimi and the entire cast: Tobey Maguire
as Peter Parker/Spider-Man, Kirsten Dunst as MJ, James Franco as Harry Osborn
(now the New Goblin), Rosemary Harris as Peter's Aunt May, JK Simmons as J. Jonah
Jameson, as well as everyone from the Daily Bugle crew. (The only one who hasn't
returned is composer Danny Elfman, though I'm not sure that will be a make or
break deal for anyone wondering whether it's worth seeing the third movie.) There's
probably very little that can be said about any of them that we didn't already
cover when we wrote about Spider-Man 2 in 2004. (You can read that column
here.) Sure, Dunst and Maguire have been appearing in other movies like Marie
Antoinette and The Good German, although Spider-Man really lives
in its own universe.
Instead, we can look at the three new cast additions, whom may not bring much
to the box office potential of Spider-Man, although they do bring a couple
new comic book characters into the movie that should help generate excitement.
First, there's Bryce Dallas Howard, daughter of director Ron and star of M. Night
Shyamalan's last two movies (The Village and Lady in the Water),
playing Gwen Stacy, Peter Parker's first real love whom offers a bit of competition
and complications in the life of MJ. Spider-Man 3's two new villains
are the Sandman, played by Thomas Haden Church of NBC's "Wings" and the Oscar
nominated star of Alexander Payne's Sideways, and Topher Grace, star of
"That ‘70s Show" as Parker's competition Eddie Brock, who eventually becomes the
crazed Venom. Actually, the introduction of that character to the film franchise
is likely to bring more new people to the movies than the three actors, since
he was such a popular character back during the comic book boom of the early ‘90s,
in large part due to his depiction by comics creator Todd McFarlane. The character
has such a wild look and attitude that many of those who read comics during that
period will be very excited about finally getting to see him on screen. The Sandman
probably doesn't have nearly as big a fanbase, but he's a classic Spidey villain,
and both characters offer the movie a lot of potential in terms of action and
effects.
The original Spider-Man was an instant phenomenon when it opened with $114.8
million exactly five years ago on May 4, 2002, and it went onto become the fifth
highest grossing movie domestically with $403 million, doubling that amount in
the international market. Two years later, Spider-Man 2 opened over 4th
of July weekend in 2004 on a Wednesday where it opened with $40 million (a new
Wednesday record). After making $153 million in its first five days, it stuck
around for the rest of the summer to wind up with $370 million in domestic receipts.
It's likely that opening on Wednesday and over the 4th of July weekend
kept Spider-Man 2 from setting a new weekend record, since people often
go away over that weekend. It's odd that it wound up grossing less than the original
movie, since most people seemed to like the sequel better going by IMDb User ratings
which has Spider-Man 2 as more popular than the original by 7.8/10
to 7.4/10.
(Critics tend agree that the sequel is better.)
While it might be hard to find comparisons for Spider-Man 3, because the
first movie was such an anomaly and the second was released in a different part
of summer, the closest comparison might be George Lucas' Star Wars prequel
trilogy, which had a similar circumstance. Episode 1 grossed $430 million
in 1999 followed by a disappointing showing for Episode 2 (with only $310
million…awwwww) then followed three years later with the finale (you guessed
it) Episode 3, which ended up in between the two with $380 million. Even
though reactions were mixed to the first two movies, the fanbase remained to
see what happened next and how things were resolved and that will certainly be
the case here. The big difference is that a lot of people liked or even loved Spider-Man 2,
maybe even more than the original movie two years earlier. There's also been
one extra year to build up anticipation for another sequel, which will drive
up the rabid fans waiting to see what happens next. (Peter Jackson's The Lord
of the Rings or The X-Men movies are also fair comparisons, though
in the case of the former, there was only a year between movies while each of
the latter movies was released in a different weekend-- early July, May kick-off,
then Memorial Day.)
The good news is that Spider-Man 3 is returning to the positioning of
the first movie, kicking off the summer on the first weekend of May, which means
it's opening in a nearly empty playing field, allowing it to snag the maximum
number of screens and theatres. (Considering how dead the last two weekends have
been, I wouldn't expect many of those movies to be sticking around.) While Spider-Man
2 opened by itself three years ago, Spider-Man 3 opens against Curtis
Hanson's Lucky You, which shouldn't offer much competition, but unlike Spider-Man
2, its opening weekend won't be hurt by opening early on Wednesday, improving
its chances to break the opening weekend record set by the first Spider-Man movie.
One can expect that Spider-Man 3 will make more its opening day than the
last two installments, though one disadvantage is that it's opening while school
is still in session, so it might have difficulty topping the new opening weekend
record set last year by Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest, which
had the benefits of opening in July with very few big movies opening after it.
Like the previous chapter, Spider-Man 3 will be opening in IMAX theatres,
continuing the success that Warner Bros has had with the format for movies like Superman
Returns, Happy Feet and 300. The previous movie didn't open
in IMAX theatres until two weeks after the regular theatrical, but this time, Spider-Man
3: The IMAX Experience will be opening the same day, and since the 3-quel
is pretty big, full of action and effects, it probably will look amazing on the
enormous IMAX screens, making that the first choice for many people.
So far, reviews of the movie have been mixed with a number of critics complaining
about the extra 15 minutes and the number of new characters, but if there's a
case for a movie in which reviews won't matter, this is probably it.
Either way, Spider-Man 3 is looking to be in good shape to be one of the
biggest movies of the summer and the year, as well as make a play to surpass
the $405 million gross of the original movie. Expect it to make somewhere between
$45 and 50 million on Friday, bumped up by sell-out midnight screenings on Thursday,
with a steady stream of business on Saturday and Sunday, as well. It might drop
between 45-50% next weekend and about the same in the following weekend when
it faces Shrek the Third, but it should bring in enough repeat business
over the rest of the summer to
cross the $400 million mark.
Comparisons:
|
Title |
Release Date |
Theater Count |
Previous Box Office (in millions) |
Weekend Box Office (in millions) |
Average |
Total Box Office |
|
Spider-Man 2 |
7/2/04 |
4,152 |
$64.26 |
$88.52 |
$21,232 |
$371.17 |
|
Spider-Man |
5/3/02 |
3,615 |
|
$114.84 |
$31,769 |
$405.69 |
|
Star Wars: Episode III Revenge of the
Sith
|
5/20/05 |
3,661 |
$50.01 |
$108.44 |
$29,619 |
$380.21 |
|
Star Wars: Episode II Attack of the Clones
|
5/16/02 |
3,161 |
$30.14 |
$80.03 |
$25,317 |
$302.18 |
|
Star Wars: EpisodeI The Phantom Menace
|
5/21/99 |
2,970 |
$41.76 |
$64.81 |
$21,822 |
$431.07 |
|
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King |
12/19/03 |
3,703 |
$51.47 |
$72.62 |
$19,614 |
$377.03 |
|
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers |
12/20/02 |
3,622 |
$40.04 |
$61.50 |
$16,980 |
$340.48 |
|
The Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Rings |
12/21/01 |
3,359 |
$27.91 |
$47.21 |
$14,055 |
$313.39 |
|
The Matrix Revolutions |
11/5/03 |
3,502 |
$35.32 |
$48.48 |
$13,843 |
$139.08 |
|
The Matrix Reloaded |
5/16/03 |
3,603 |
$42.51 |
$91.77 |
$25,471 |
$281.91 |
|
The Matrix |
4/2/99 |
2,849 |
$9.57 |
$27.78 |
$9,751 |
$171.38 |
|
X-Men: The Last Stand |
5/26/06 |
3,690 |
|
$102.75 |
$27,846 |
$234.36 |
|
X2: X-Men United |
5/2/03 |
3,741 |
|
$85.56 |
$22,871 |
$214.95 |
|
The X-Men |
7/14/00 |
3,025 |
|
$54.47 |
$18,007 |
$157.30 |
Why I Should See It: It's the third part of the most popular and successful
comic franchise to date, and it's likely to be much, much bigger in every sense
of the word.
Why Not: Because you're still trying to recover from your desire
to see every movie starring Nicolas Cage…
Projections: $130 to 135 million opening weekend; $410 to 420 million total.
 LUCKY YOU (Warner
Bros.)
Starring Eric Bana, Drew Barrymore, Robert Duvall, Debra Messing
Directed by Curtis Hanson (Eight Mile, In Her Shoes, The Wonder
Boys, L.A. Confidential, The River Wild); Written by Eric Roth
(Forrest Gump, The Good Shepherd), Curtis Hanson (L.A. Confidential)
Genre: Drama
Rated PG-13
Tagline: "Change your game. Change your life."
Plot Summary: Huck Cheever (Eric Bana) sets out to win the 2003 World
Series of Poker (yeah, kind of a giveaway about how long this movie has been
sitting in the can) and the heart of singer Billie Offer (Drew Barrymore), realizing
that the tournament might pit him against his estranged father (Robert Duvall)
who abandoned his family.
Of Note: Filmmaker Curtis (L.A. Confidential) Hanson's drama set in
the world of high stakes poker is finally released after sitting on the shelf
for over a year.
Analysis: A few months ago, Warner Bros. had an enormous hit with
Zach Snyder's 300 and no other studio was dumb enough to try to open
a movie against it as counter-programming. It's kind of weird, since counter-programming
has always been a way for studios to bring in an audience they don't think
will necessarily be interested in that week's particular blockbuster release.
In this case, Lucky You may be more of a matter of Warner Bros. just
wanting to dump the movie into a weekend where it will mostly go overlooked,
being overshadowed by Spider-Man 3, and will then be forgotten soon
enough.
It's kind of a shame since filmmaker Curtis Hanson has made so many great films,
and many of them have been overlooked as well. His adaptation of James Ellroy's L.A.
Confidential was hish biggest triumph, winning two Oscars including one for
Hanson's screenplay and being nominated for seven others, but his adaptation
of Michael Chabon's Wonder Boys was mostly ignored. Hanson then helmed
the biodrama 8 Mile starring rapper Eminem, and that opened huge despite
a modest release. Hanson's last movie was the 2005 adaptation of Jennifer Weiner's
bestselling novel In Her Shoes starring Cameron Diaz, but it really didn't
have much of an impact.
Hanson's latest movie stars the successor to Meg Ryan's romantic comedy throne
Drew Barrymore, who recently starred in Music and Lyrics, a Warner
Bros. romantic comedy that grossed $50 million, largely with the help of
Hugh Grant, one of the stronger male romantic leads. This time, she's joined
by Eric Bana, who hasn't appeared in that many movies in recent years, though
three of them (Black Hawk Down, The Hulk and Troy) grossed
more than $100 million. His last appearance was in Steven Spielberg's political
thriller Munich, which Bana shot after shooting Lucky You in
April 2005, though it's kind of odd to think of him doing a romantic drama
opposite Drew Barrymore. It's also strange that Bana and Barrymore starred
in two of the movies of summer 2003 that were considered disappointments,
that being The Hulk and Charlie's Angels: Full Throttle. Rounding
out the cast is screen legend Robert Duvall as Bana's father and "Will and
Grace" star Debra Messing.
What's odd is that at least on paper, this should be a strong film, since
it mixes the world of poker with the type of drama that has made Curtis
Hanson's films so strong, but instead, the movie is being sold much like
any other Drew Barrymore romantic comedy, again hoping to offer counter-programming
to Spidey. The problem is that many women and girls will probably be just
as interested in seeing Spider-Man 3 as the guys, and this movie
certainly doesn't seem like something that needs to be seen opening weekend
or even in theatres. The movie might also have missed out on its chances
of capitalizing on the popularity of poker on TV and the internet in recent
years, and even so, the guys who like poker might be turned off by the
marketing campaign that plays up the romance with Barrymore over the poker
playing.
Despite the pedigree of Hanson and his cast, the movie's going to be hard-pressed
to try to get attention away from the domination of Spider-Man 3,
which has been everywhere for months building up to its release on Friday.
It's doubtful that any theatre will give Lucky You more than one
screen and probably in one of the smaller rooms, which means there's a
ceiling on how much it can possibly make. Either way, if it's anywhere
near as good as Hanson's previous films, it's likely to be the kind of
movie that gets discovered on cable or DVD. Then again, you have to wonder
why this movie has been delayed as often as it has or why the movie isn't
being heavily screened for critics.
Comparisons:
|
Title |
Release Date |
Theater Count |
Previous Box Office (in millions) |
Weekend Box Office (in millions) |
Average |
Total Box Office |
|
Music and Lyrics |
2/16/07 |
2,955 |
$5.52 |
$13.62 |
$4,610 |
$50.32 |
|
Fever Pitch |
4/8/05 |
3,267 |
|
$12.40 |
$3,796 |
$42.07 |
|
50 First Dates |
2/13/04 |
3,591 |
|
$39.58 |
$11,098 |
$120.78 |
|
Riding in Cars with Boys |
10/19/01 |
2,770 |
|
$10.80 |
$3,899 |
$29.78 |
|
Never Been Kissed |
4/9/99 |
2,455 |
|
$11.84 |
$4,823 |
$55.47 |
|
The Wedding Singer |
2/13/98 |
2,821 |
|
$19.10 |
$6,771 |
$80.25 |
|
Munich |
12/23/05 |
532 |
|
$6.04 |
$11,355 |
$47.38 |
|
Troy |
5/14/04 |
3,411 |
|
$46.87 |
$13,739 |
$133.23 |
|
The Hulk |
6/20/03 |
3,660 |
|
$62.13 |
$16,975 |
$132.12 |
|
Black Hawk Down |
1/18/02 |
3,101 |
$1.85 |
$33.63 |
$10,844 |
$108.58 |
|
In Her Shoes |
10/7/05 |
2,808 |
|
$10.02 |
$3,568 |
$32.88 |
|
L.A. Confidential |
9/19/97 |
769 |
|
$5.21 |
$6,775 |
$64.62 |
|
Alex and Emma |
6/20/03 |
2,310 |
|
$6.11 |
$2,645 |
$14.21 |
|
Deuces Wild |
5/3/02 |
1,480 |
|
$2.70 |
$1,827 |
$6.04 |
Why I Should See It: Curtis Hanson is a talented filmmaker, responsible
for great dramas, and setting one in the world of poker should be interesting.
Why Not: There's probably a good reason why this movie has been
sitting on a shelf for two years, and who wants to pay good money to find
out when they can see Spider-Man?
Projections: $6 to 8 million opening; $20 million total.
OTHER LIMITED RELEASES:
CIVIC DUTY (Freestyle
Releasing) Peter Krause of "Six Feet Under" stars in this psychological thriller
about a recently unemployed man who become obsessed with the Islamic grad student
who's moved in next door and whom he believes is involved with some type of terrorist
activity. Jeff Renfroe and Andrew Joiner's post 9/11 thriller, which premiered
at the Tribeca Film Festival last year, opens in select cities including New
York and L.A.
THE FLYING SCOTSMAN (MGM) Trainspotting star
Jonny Lee Miller plays Scottish cyclist Graeme Obree, who broke the world one-hour
cycling record in 1993 on a bike of his own design, only to have that record
beaten, putting him on a downwards spiral of depression. Directed by Douglas
MacKinnon, the film opens in select cities on Friday. Mini-Review (Coming
Soon!)
L'ICEBERG (First Run Features) - Dominique Abel and Fiona Gordon
wrote, directed (along with Bruno Romy) and star in this comedy about a
fast food restaurant manager who gets locked into a walk-in freezer without
her husband and kids realizing her absence, and convincing her that she
should go live on an iceberg. Opens at the Cinema Village in New York.
THE OTHER CONQUEST (Union
State Media) Salvador Carrasco's historical epic looks at the life of Spanish
Conqueror Hernando Cortés and his invasion of the Aztec capital of Mexico,
and how their presence affected the once mighty people. Originally released
in 2000, this film gets a re-release into various cities including Albuquerque,
Las Vegas, San Antonio and Santa Fe.
PARIS JE T'AIME (First Look)- 20 directors from France and the rest of the world including the
likes of The Coen Brothers, Wes Craven, Alfonso Cuaron, Walter Salles, Alexander
Payne, Olivier Assayas, and Gurinder Chadha each created a short film set
in various areas of Paris, France for this compilation which includes appearances
by Steve Buscemi, Nick Nolte, Juliette Binoche, Natalie Portman, Elijah Wood
and many, many more. Mini-Review (Coming Soon!)
THE TREATMENT (New
Yorker Films) Winner of last year's Tribeca Film Festival dramatic competition,
this dramedy stars Chris Egeman as a New York school teacher who gets involved
with a widowed mother (Famke Jannsen) while trying to sift through the often
bad advice given by his deranged psychiatrist (Ian Holm). It will open at
New York's Angelika on Friday.
Next week, the month of May motors along with a bunch of new movies including
the long-anticipated Brit thriller 28
Weeks Later, Jane Fonda and Lindsay Lohan's Georgia
Rule, Larry the Cable Guy's Delta Farce and Zach
Braff takes on Jason Bateman in The
Ex.
Copyright
2007 Edward Douglas
Take on The Weekend Warrior in the box-office related movie
games at:
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