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The Weekend Warrior
Box Office Predictions for July 6 - 8,
2007
By Edward Douglas -
Check out the Weekend
Warrior Blog for this week's Analysis. (Final
Update 7.5.07)
(Note: The predictions below are only for the three-day weekend starting July
6. Please read the full analysis for projections on the two new movies during
their first few days of release.)
|
TW |
LW |
Title |
Weekend (in millions) |
Change |
# Of Theaters |
Average |
Week |
|
1 |
New |
Transformers |
$62.5 |
N/A |
4,011 |
$15,567 |
1 |
|
2 |
1 |
Ratatouille |
$31.0 |
-34% |
3,930 |
$7,888 |
2 |
|
3 |
2 |
Live Free and Die Hard |
$17.2 |
-49% |
3,411 |
$5,043 |
2 |
|
4 |
3 |
Evan Almighty |
$8.3 |
-45% |
3,466 |
$2,395 |
3 |
|
5 |
New |
License to Wed |
$8.0 |
N/A |
2,604 |
$3,072 |
1 |
|
6 |
4 |
1408 |
$6.0 |
-44% |
2,631 |
$2,281 |
3 |
|
7 |
6 |
Knocked Up |
$4.7 |
-34% |
2,211 |
$2,126 |
6 |
|
8 |
5 |
Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer |
$4.4 |
-51% |
2,618 |
$1,681 |
4 |
|
9 |
9 |
Sicko |
$4.3 |
-5% |
702 |
$6,126 |
2 |
|
10 |
7 |
Ocean's 13 |
$3.2 |
-47% |
2,102 |
$1,522 |
5 |
| |
|
|
Est. Weekend Total
$149.60 |
Est. Avg. Drop-Off
-39% |
|
Est. Average PTA
$4,771 |
|
COMPARISONS:
TRANSFORMERS (DreamWorks/Paramount)
|
Title |
Release Date |
Theater Count |
Previous Box Office (in millions) |
Weekend Box Office (in millions) |
Average |
Total Box Office |
|
Disturbia |
4/13/07 |
2,925 |
|
$22.24 |
$7,598 |
$78.53 |
|
Waist Deep |
6/23/06 |
1004 |
|
$9.40 |
$9,367 |
$21.34 |
|
Four Brothers |
8/12/05 |
2,533 |
|
$21.18 |
$8,360 |
$73.62 |
|
Charlie's Angels: Full Throttle |
6/27/03 |
3,459 |
|
$37.63 |
$10,880 |
$100.69 |
|
The Island |
7/22/05 |
3,122 |
|
$12.41 |
$3,975 |
$35.26 |
|
Bad Boys II |
7/18/03 |
3,186 |
|
$46.52 |
$14,602 |
$137.26 |
|
Pearl Harbor |
5/25/01 |
3,214 |
|
$59.08 |
$18,382 |
$198.54 |
|
Armageddon |
7/3/98 |
3,127 |
$18.10 |
$36.09 |
$11,541 |
$201.58 |
|
The Rock |
6/7/96 |
2,392 |
|
$25.07 |
$10,481 |
$134.07 |
|
War of the Worlds |
7/1/05 |
3,908 |
$35.68 |
$64.88 |
$16,602 |
$233.58 |
|
Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines |
7/4/03 |
3,504 |
$28.35 |
$44.04 |
$12,569 |
$150.35 |
|
Terminator 2 |
7/5/91 |
2,274 |
$20.54 |
$31.77 |
$13,971 |
$204.84 |
|
Men in Black II |
7/5/02 |
3,557 |
$35.09 |
$52.15 |
$14,661 |
$192.40 |
|
Men In Black |
7/4/97 |
3,020 |
$33.06 |
$51.07 |
$16,911 |
$250.15 |
|
Independence Day |
7/5/96 |
2,882 |
$11.12 |
$50.23 |
$17,429 |
$306.17 |
LICENSE TO WED (Warner
Bros.)
|
Title |
Release Date |
Theater Count |
Weekend Box Office (in millions) |
Average |
Total Box Office |
|
Man of the Year |
10/13/06 |
2,515 |
$12.30 |
$4,890 |
$37.44 |
|
R.V. |
4/28/06 |
3,639 |
$16.40 |
$4,511 |
$71.40 |
|
Because I Said So |
2/2/07 |
2,526 |
$13.12 |
$5,195 |
$42.67 |
|
American Dreamz |
4/21/06 |
1,500 |
$3.67 |
$2,445 |
$7.31 |
|
Chasing Liberty |
1/9/04 |
2,400 |
$6.08 |
$2,534 |
$12.19 |
|
A Walk To Remember |
1/25/02 |
2,411 |
$12.18 |
$5,051 |
$41.23 |
|
Wedding Crashers |
7/15/05 |
2,925 |
$33.90 |
$11,590 |
$209.22 |
|
The Wedding Date |
2/4/05 |
1,695 |
$11.13 |
$6,566 |
$31.59 |
|
The Wedding Planner |
1/26/01 |
2,785 |
$13.51 |
$4,851 |
$60.40 |
|
The Wedding Singer |
2/13/98 |
2,821 |
$19.10 |
$6,771 |
$80.25 |
|
Father of the Bride 2 |
12/8/95 |
1,949 |
$11.13 |
$5,711 |
$76.59 |
|
Father of the Bride |
12/20/91 |
1,561 |
$7.03 |
$4,504 |
$89.10 |
|
Along Came Polly |
1/16/04 |
2,984 |
$27.21 |
$9,290 |
$87.86 |
|
Duplex |
9/26/03 |
2,189 |
$4.62 |
$2,111 |
$9.61 |
Copyright 2007 Edward Douglas
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