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The Weekend Warrior
Your Weekly Guide to New Movies for
January 5, 2007
By Edward Douglas -
Greetings and welcome back to the Weekend Warrior,
your weekly guide to the weekend's new movies. Tune in every Tuesday
for the latest look at the upcoming weekend, and then check back on
Friday for final projections based on actual theatre counts.
(If
you have anything to say about anything written in this column, feedback
and Email is always welcome,
and almost always responded to.)
THE BATTLE CRY!
Welcome back to the Weekend Warrior, the first of 2007, and though I can't guarantee
that this will be a regular thing, I thought it appropriate to start the New
Year with my first Battle Cry in a few months.
2006 was an interesting year for yours truly. It was my first full year as a
full-time entertainment writer, and boy, it was pretty insane trying to see so
many movies and find time to write about them. I ended up seeing close to 300
movies last year, some of them more than once, and spent most of the holidays
compiling my Top
25 and Terrible
25 lists. Considering how many movies I saw, it's hard to determine whether
last year was much better or worse than the year before, though I certainly felt
like there were a lot more mediocre or just good movies, and not so many movies
that will stand the test of time and repeat viewings, movies that are just as
good
the 5th or 6th time as they are the first time.
Anyway, after a semi-relaxing week off, here we are at the start of a New Year,
which means it's time for all the professional critics to whine and moan about
there not being any good movies out there. Heck, most of them will go into the
movies they're seeing over the next few weeks with that negative thought in mind,
since it's been the norm that studios save their best movies for the summer or
holidays and dump the rest in the winter and fall. Sure, there will certainly
be more than a few dogs in the next few months, I'm happy to say that there's
at least two or three good films coming out this month that I can recommend.
I'm also excited to announce that I'll be attending my very first Sundance Film
Festival in a few weeks in order to scout ahead for the great movies coming out
later this year. (If everything works out, ComingSoon.net will have a new thing
up and running by then where you'll be able to get daily updates from the festival.)
I guess I'll keep this week's Battle Cry short, and hopefully, I'll have enough
thoughts or ideas to keep this going having taken a few months off. Anyway, here's
best wishes to everyone for '07 in hopes that it's at least as good or better
than '06.
THE WEEKEND PREDICTIONS: (final
update 1.4.07)
|
TW |
LW |
Title |
Weekend (in millions) |
Change |
# Of Theaters |
Average |
Week |
|
1 |
1 |
Night at the Museum |
$20.1 |
-46% |
3,730 |
$5,389 |
3 |
|
2 |
2 |
The Pursuit of Happyness |
$12.0 |
-38% |
3,027 |
$3,964 |
4 |
|
3 |
3 |
Dreamgirls |
$9.2 |
-35% |
852 |
$10,798 |
2 |
|
4 |
New |
Happily N'Ever After |
$8.7 |
N/A |
2,381 |
$3,654 |
1 |
|
5 |
4 |
Charlotte's Web |
$7.5 |
-36% |
3,450 |
$2,271 |
4 |
|
6 |
22 |
Children of Men |
$6.3 |
1237% |
1,210 |
$5,207 |
2 |
|
7 |
5 |
The Good Shepherd |
$6.1 |
-43% |
2,250 |
$2,711 |
3 |
|
8 |
New |
Freedom Writers |
$5.9 |
N/A |
1,360 |
$4,338 |
1 |
|
9 |
6 |
Rocky Balboa |
$5.5 |
-48% |
2,850 |
$1,856 |
3 |
|
10 |
7 |
We Are Marshall |
$4.6 |
-44% |
2,400 |
$1,699 |
3 |
|
13 |
New |
Code Name: The Cleaner |
$3.8 |
N/A |
1,736 |
$2,189 |
1 |
| |
|
|
Est. Weekend Total
$89.70 |
Est. Avg. Drop-Off
-118% |
|
Est. Average PTA
$3,526 |
|
Up until the last two years, the first week in January has been fairly light
with mostly throwaway movies and expanding awards fodder, but that changed in
2005 with Universal's surprise hit White Noise, followed last year by
Eli Roth's Hostel, which continued Lionsgate's tradition of solid R-rated
horror.
This weekend looks to return the weekend to status quo with three new movies
in wide release and only four new movies total, though none of them look strong
enough to take down last week's Top 3, as Ben Stiller's Night at the Museum remains
firmly at the top despite a reasonable drop. Opening in the most theatres, Lionsgate
will attempt something new with their first computer-animated family film Happily
N'Ever After, trying to capitalize on the success of CG animated movies like Shrek and
last year's Weinstein offering Hoodwinked with a fairy tale influenced
story that should appeal to kids. It should have a decent opening this weekend
with solid legs over the next month with only a few other family films.
Every January, Paramount's MTV Films releases a new movie trying to entice returning
students to the movies after their long winter holiday. This year's offering
is the real-life scholastic drama of Freedom Writers, starring Hilary
Swank. Oddly, they're giving it a rather moderate release this weekend into just
1,200 theatres with plans to open it wider over Martin Luther King Jr. weekend,
so it's likely to end up somewhere in the middle of the charts this weekend.
Then there's the new buddy action-comedy movie Code Name: The Cleaner with
the unfortunate pairing of Cedric the Entertainer and Lucy Liu. It's doubtful
there's much interest in this movie, which looks even worse than Les Mayfield's
2005 action-comedy bomb The Man, making it obvious that New Line is dumping
this into the weekend in hopes of getting their trash out of the way earlier
this year. Update: It's doubtful this will be getting into the Top 12, but it
should end up on the outskirts of the Top 15.
The biggest expansion this weekend is Alfonso Cuarón's futuristic Children of Men (Universal),
starring Clive Owen, which adds 1,200 theatres to take advantage of the critical
raves it's been getting. It should do decently among 20 to 30 yaer old male
genre fans who don't have very much else in theatres to interest
them except maybe
for Rocky Balboa. Expect Cuarón's film to end up somewhere in the
lower half of the Top 10.
Fox Faith's spirtitual thriller Thr3e will open in roughly
400 theatres on Friday, where it should make roughly $1 to $1.3 million.
As mentioned above, this weekend last year saw the release of Eli Roth's
horror film Hostel, which made an astounding $19.5 million its
opening weekend, while big movies like The Chronicles of Narnia and King Kong continued
to do decent business. Those three films helped the Top 10 gross $98 million,
which is quite a bit higher than what can be expected this weekend.
THE CHOSEN ONE:
FREEDOM WRITERS (Paramount
/MTV Films)
Starring Hilary Swank, Imelda Staunton, Patrick Dempsey, Scott Glenn, Mario,
April L. Hernandez, Kristin Herrera, Jason Finn
Written and directed by Richard LaGravenese (Living Out Loud, A Decade
Under the Influence, writer of The Mirror Has Two Faces, The Horse
Whisperer, The Fisher King, The Bridges of Madison County, A
Little Prince)
Genre: Drama
Rated PG-13
Tagline: "our story. our words."
Plot Summary: 23-year-old Erin Gruwell (Hilary Swank) takes on her first
teaching assignment, being put in charge a rough group of poor inner city kids
at Wilson High School, many of whose lives have been disrupted by gang violence.
Using unconventional methods, Gruwell is able to get through to the kids, having
them document their
lives in journals, taking on the collective name of "Freedom Writers."
Of Note: Hilary Swank takes on her first scholastic drama, teaming with Richard
LaGravenese
(The Mirror Has Two Faces, The Horse Whisperer) for the first of
two movies this year.
REVIEW
While I'm saving most of my comments on this movie for my review, I was surprised
how much I liked this movie. At first, I thought I was watching a needless retread
of Dangerous Minds, but the true story of the Wilson High School Freedom
Writers turns into a really inspirational and touching story, one that requires
more than a few hankies at times. Usually, I'm a bit mixed on Hilary Swank, but
this was one of her better roles, and it really showcases a lot of great young
talent who hopefully will be seen and scooped for other roles. Kudos to Paramount,
MTV Films and Richard LaGravenese for starting the year off with such a strong
film.
Pros: The collegiate or scholastic drama has always been a mainstay
around Oscar season, since there's always an older audience interested
in this type of story. From movies like Dead Poets Society, which
received a number of Oscar noms, to Mr. Holland's Opus and Good
Will Hunting. In recent years, a new derivative of the genre has
cropped up dealing with troubled inner city kids and a role model or
mentor trying to help them. One of the earliest of these was Dangeorus
Minds starring Michelle Pfeiffer, but it's become very frequent
thanks to the efforts of MTV Films in creating movies that will appeal
to teens and returning students. From movies like Varsity Blues
to Save the Last Dance, Orange County and 2005's Coach
Carter, MTV Films has found a way to make movies about school more
interesting to those having to return to it. Freedom Writers
continues that tradition with the real life story of inner city students
who made good thanks to the help of their ultra-supportive teacher Erin
Gruwell. It's a strong inspirational story that should appeal to those
who enjoy those other films mentioned.
Directed by Richard LaGravenese, an Oscar nominated screenwriter whose written
a lot of great dramas, the movie has a strong cast starting with two-time Oscar
winner Hilary Swank taking on a lighter and more feminine role than some of her
other films. Swank still has a bit of clout following her second Oscar win for
Clint Eastwood's Million Dollar Baby, which grossed over $100 million. Freedom
Writers is more the type of movie expected of an Oscar winner than something
like Brian
De Palma's The Black Dahlia or genre films like The Core, so Swank's
older fans should be interested in this.
She has some great support from the likes of former teen star Patrick Dempsey,
now star of the hit ABC show "Grey's Anatomy," and Imelda Staunton, who was Swank's
main competition at the 2005 Oscars, something which translates well to the movie.
It also stars R ‘n' B singer Mario in his big-screen debut and a cast of talented
young actors.
The good thing is that a movie like this usually can do well over Martin Luther
King Jr. weekend, and it's not really the type of movie that has to open big
to be able to have legs if word-of-mouth is good.
Cons: The biggest problem facing Freedom Writers is that most people
might feel like they've seen this before and as we've seen a lot lately there's
a certain amount of declining returns with movies that follow a certain formula.
(Just look at last year's football movies and how they made less money with each
one.) Unlike the other MTV Films, which had sports or dancing to entice younger
viewers into theatres, Freedom Writers is all about the scholastics and
learning, something that's worthy of making a movie about, but isn't quite as
exciting as the basketball games in Coach Carter or the dance moves in
Antonio Banderas' Take the Lead.
In a rather odd decision, Paramount/MVT has decided to open this movie more moderately
than usual in just 1,200 theatres, going against the normal attitude of trying
to open a movie as wide as possible its first weekend to have the best first
weekend placement. It's possible they realize how hard a sell this is and are
being a bit more cautious, hoping that word-of-mouth for those who see it opening
weekend will get to others, who'll then go out to see it over the extended Martin
Luther King Jr. weekend, when they'll expand it into 1,000 or more theatres.
This could be a smart move or this could end up biting them on the butt if no
one even bothers to see it this weekend.
Unfortunately, this movie won't have an appeal to the urban audiences
who might get the most out of it, mainly due to the "white bread" casting
of Swank, Staunton and Dempsey. High school kids in urban areas won't
need to see this movie 'cause they live it, and are more likely to wait
until next week for Stomp the Yard, which could severely cut
into Freedom Writers' business. (This is likely one of the reasons
why Paramount decided to open the movie a week earlier fully knowing
that the first weekend of the year tends to be bad for new movies.)
Freedom Writers is definitely in danger of mirroring last year's Akeelah
and the Bee, a critically loved scholastic film that no one bothered to see
because it was about spelling bees--not particularly urban. With that in mind, Freedom
Writers will have to rely on other markets and demos, particularly women
and older moviegoers, if it's going to be successful.
COMPARISONS
Why I Should See It: A powerful and inspirational true story
Why Not: Some will feel that they've seen this same story way
too many times.
Projections: $4 to 6 million opening; $24 million total.
CODE NAME: THE CLEANER
(New Line)
Starring Cedric The Entertainer, Lucy Liu, Nicollette Sheridan, Elizabeth
Hurley, DeRay Davis
Directed by Les Mayfield (Blue Streak, The Man, Flubber,
Encino Man, American Outlaws); Written by Robert Adetuyi
(Turn It Up, opening next week: Stomp the Yard), George
Gallo (Midnight Run, Trapped in Paradise, Bad Boys,
The Whole Ten Yards)
Genre: Action, Comedy
Rated PG-13
Tagline: "In a dirty world, he's our only hope." (God
help us all!)
Plot Summary: A janitor named Jake (Cedric the Entertainer) winds
up in bed with a corpse and $250,000, unable to remember who he is,
allowing a number of corrupt government official
to convince Jake he's
an undercover
special
ops
agent who
has some
information
on a deadly new government weapon.
Of Note: Les Mayfield and George Gallo, two mainstays in the
buddy comedy genre, return with a movie that pairs Cedric the Entertainer
with Lucy Liu.
Mini-Review: It doesn't take a rocket scientist to
figure out where this silly comedy went wrong, ripping-off the simple
premise from a bad Jackie Chan movie and transplanting it into an overly-complex
government plot that has the audience trying to figure out whether
Cedric is a janitor or a special ops agent. Whichever
he is, Cedric just isn't very funny, I
mean not even a little bit, as he plays down his trademark smart-mouthed
style for sillier physical humor to try to appeal to a broader
audience. Instead, he allows the likes of DeRay Davis and Niecy
Nash to upstage him with even sillier bits. (The fact that the end
credit improvisations are funnier
than
any of the written gags is far too telling.) Lucy Liu doesn't do much
to improve things when she shows up about a half hour into the movie
after
Cedric has already romped with a smokin' hot
Nicollette Sheridan in sexy lingerie. All the objectification
of Cedric's female co-stars doesn't do much to improve the fact that
the whole movie fluctuates between being idiotic, inane or just plain
inept. Somewhere, John Candy and Chris Farley
are
high-fivin'
each other
that
they died
before they were coerced
into
headlining
this stinker. Rating: 3/10
Pros: While there are probably going to be more cons than pros on
this one, this does have the benefits of having a simple premise that's
easily understood, masterminded by two guys who have had a lot of experience
with this kind of buddy comedy: Les Mayfield, the director of Blue
Streak and The Man, and George Gallo, who wrote Midnight
Run and Bad Boys, the latter being a huge hit for Will Smith
and Martin Lawrence.
One might assume that Cedric the Entertainer has some sort of following
from appearing in the Barbershop movies, but he hasn't really
been able to carry a movie on his own, as seen by recent bombs like
Man of the House and The Honeymooners. It would seem from
those movies that Ice Cube was a bigger draw for the Barbershop
movies, since he's been able to find success with his solo movies, such
as Are We There Yet? (Coincidentally, Cedric's biggest non-Barbershop
hit was the similar Johnson Family Vacation.)
Apparently, someone thought it would be a good idea to team Cedric with
the ultra-adorable Lucy Liu, whose been in more bombs than plutonium.
Maybe they were looking at this pairing as some sort of multi-ethnic
Rush Hour type thing that could appeal to two ethnic audiences
who don't have much geared towards them. If they're lucky, the Year
of the Dumb will carry over slightly into 2007 or else this is doomed.
Just to make things interesting, they've added an unknown quantity
in "Desperate Housewives" star Nicolette Sheridan, who'll
probably bring as much to this movie as Eva Longoria has
brought to
her one or two
movies last year. It's doubtful that the show's female fans
will have much interest in this kind of movie.
Cons: Most of the cons have seeped into the section above, but
the sad fact is that neither Cedric nor Lucy nor Les Mayfield have had
very much box office success in recent years, so who on earth thought
that teaming them all together would be a good idea? Cedric has a few
hits under his belt like Johnson Family Vacation, but this movie
throws him into a genre that ran its course years ago, as seen by Mayfield's
last action-comedy was The Man with Samuel L. Jackson and Eugene
Levy in 2005, which barely made $4 million its opening weekend despite
the popularity of its two stars, which is considerably more than Cedric
and Lucy Liu. As much as I love Lucy Liu, she just can't open movies
as seen by the likes of Ballistic: Ecks vs. Sever and Domino.
The movie's premise is pretty bad, falling into the same territory as
Jackie Chan's The Tuxedo or movies like Agent Cody Banks
and the recent bomb Alex Rider: Operation Stormbreaker, and it
doesn't look very funny, even compared to some of Cedric's other films.
It'll be interesting to see how many theatres New Line is able to get
this into, but I wouldn't expect it to be more than 2,000.
COMPARISONS
Why I Should See It: You have a few hours to kill and way too
much Christmas money burning a hole in your wallet.
Why Not: Because you'd be better off volunteering or donating
money to help others, since this looks like it could be one of the unfunniest
movies ever made.
Projections: $3 to 5 million opening; $8 to 10 million total.
HAPPILY N'EVER AFTER (Lionsgate)
Starring (the voices of) Sarah Michelle Gellar, Sigourney Weaver, Freddie
Prinze Jr., George Carlin, Wallace Shawn, Andy Dick, Patrick Warburton
Directed by Paul G. Bolger (debut); Written by Robert Moreland (Space
Marines, Ground Control)
Genre: Animation, Comedy, Family
Rated PG
Tagline: "Fairytale endings aren't what they used to be."
Plot Summary: The story of Cinderella is given a unique
spin as her evil stepmother Frieda (voiced by Sigourney Weaver)
plans
on
taking over Fairy Tale Land by casting a spell that throws
the normal fairy tale endings into disarray, so "Ella" (Sarah Michelle
Gellar) must put aside her normal damsel in distress tendencies
to stop her
plan.
Of Note: This is the first computer animated film of '07, as well
as the first venture by Lionsgate into this territory.
Pros: After a year jam-packed with computer-animated movies of different
sizes, shapes and box office results, it doesn't seem like making CG-animated
family films are the best way for a studio to spend their money, which
is why it's odd to see the burgeoning indie Lionsgate, who is not really
known for family films, jumping into the game with their first computer-animated
film.
There's something to be said about making an animated film based on
fairy tale characters known to kids, as seen by Shrek and last
year's Weinstein Company hit Hoodwinked, and the humor
in this looks like the kind of things that younger kids might
enjoy,
even if
it doesn't do as well among older kids and teens without
a big name voice star like Mike Myers or Eddie Murphy. This
one
is
based on
the
character in the classic fairy tale "Cinderella" and it's
being sold based on the Shrek name, as it shares one
of the dozens of producers of the movie that's still considered
to
be the epitome
of the CG animated
genre. Using "from the producer of Shrek" as a selling
point is nothing new, and though Happily seems to have a similar tone,
it's not written or directed by anyone involved with Shrek and
the animation doesn't look nearly as well developed, even when compared
to the original.
Without the financial backing of a Disney or a DreamWorks, the movie
ends up with a mixed bag in terms of voice cast, though it does feature
the voices of that darling married couple of Sarah Michelle Gellar and
Freddie Prinze Jr. providing voices for the two main characters after
appearing in two Scooby Doo movies together. It also features
the voice of Sigourney Weaver, George Carlin and living cartoon character
Andy Dick, as well as animation mainstays like Wallace Shawn and Patrick
Warburton (The Emperor's New Groove, "Family Guy" and "The Tick").
While opening a family movie so soon after the holidays seems odd, they're
getting it into theatres before next week's three-day holiday weekend
with no other family films, so it should have solid legs if it's halfway
decent.
Cons: The fact that Lionsgate has to rely on the good
old "from
the producers of Shrek" label in its advertising gives
you some idea how weak this film may be in terms of originality,
considering
that it doesn't have any of the writers, director or animators
behind Shrek. There really doesn't seem to be very much new here, something
that greatly hurt computer-animated movies like The Wild and
The Ant Bully, which followed Madagascar and Antz
using a similar premise.
January isn't a very good time to release a kids movies, especially
not the first weekend since many kids and parents are likely
to be "movied
out" from the holidays. Because most people took Monday off
from work/school, few parents with small kids are likely
to go out
until the weekend,
which means that Friday will be dead, and Happily will be relying
heavily on that weekend business.
It doesn't help that both parents and kids are getting burnt out on
computer animated movies with there being so many of them on a weekly
basis. Lionsgate doesn't have the experience in selling family movies
as much as Disney or DreamWorks do, and they're not likely to get the
movie into as many theatres or screens as other recent CG-animated films.
On top of that, there's still a lot of stronger family films in theatres
including Charlotte's Web, A Night at the Museum, and
Happy Feet.
COMPARISONS
Why I Should See It: From the commercials, this seems like it
could be a cute and funny spin on a classic fairy tale for the kids.
Why Not: If this is as big a hit as last year's Hoodwinked,
these ridiculous fairy tale spin-off movies will never end.
Projections: $8 to 10 million opening; $30 million total.
IN LIMITED RELEASE:
THR3E (Fox Faith)
- Horror gets spiritual in this thriller based on the best-seller by
Ted Dekker about a seminary student who teams with a criminologist
to solve the clues left by a serial killer before he strikes again.
It will open in 250 theatres on Friday with a big push through churches
via the Fox Faith imprint.
Next week, the first holiday of 2007, Martin Luther King Jr. weekend
with the dance movie Stomp
the Yard, the true-life crime drama Alpha
Dog, the horror-thriller Primeval as well as Luc Besson's
animated family film Arthur and the Invisibles.
Copyright 2007 Edward Douglas
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