The Weekend Warrior

Your Weekly Guide to New Movies for January 5, 2007
By Edward Douglas -

Greetings and welcome back to the Weekend Warrior, your weekly guide to the weekend's new movies. Tune in every Tuesday for the latest look at the upcoming weekend, and then check back on Friday for final projections based on actual theatre counts.

(If you have anything to say about anything written in this column, feedback and Email is always welcome, and almost always responded to.)


THE BATTLE CRY!

Welcome back to the Weekend Warrior, the first of 2007, and though I can't guarantee that this will be a regular thing, I thought it appropriate to start the New Year with my first Battle Cry in a few months.

2006 was an interesting year for yours truly. It was my first full year as a full-time entertainment writer, and boy, it was pretty insane trying to see so many movies and find time to write about them. I ended up seeing close to 300 movies last year, some of them more than once, and spent most of the holidays compiling my Top 25 and Terrible 25 lists. Considering how many movies I saw, it's hard to determine whether last year was much better or worse than the year before, though I certainly felt like there were a lot more mediocre or just good movies, and not so many movies that will stand the test of time and repeat viewings, movies that are just as good the 5th or 6th time as they are the first time.

Anyway, after a semi-relaxing week off, here we are at the start of a New Year, which means it's time for all the professional critics to whine and moan about there not being any good movies out there. Heck, most of them will go into the movies they're seeing over the next few weeks with that negative thought in mind, since it's been the norm that studios save their best movies for the summer or holidays and dump the rest in the winter and fall. Sure, there will certainly be more than a few dogs in the next few months, I'm happy to say that there's at least two or three good films coming out this month that I can recommend. I'm also excited to announce that I'll be attending my very first Sundance Film Festival in a few weeks in order to scout ahead for the great movies coming out later this year. (If everything works out, ComingSoon.net will have a new thing up and running by then where you'll be able to get daily updates from the festival.)

I guess I'll keep this week's Battle Cry short, and hopefully, I'll have enough thoughts or ideas to keep this going having taken a few months off. Anyway, here's best wishes to everyone for '07 in hopes that it's at least as good or better than '06.



THE WEEKEND PREDICTIONS: (final update 1.4.07)


TW

LW

Title

Weekend (in millions)

Change

# Of Theaters

Average

Week

1

1

Night at the Museum

$20.1

-46%

3,730

$5,389

3

2

2

The Pursuit of Happyness

$12.0

-38%

3,027

$3,964

4

3

3

Dreamgirls

$9.2

-35%

852

$10,798

2

4

New

Happily N'Ever After

$8.7

N/A

2,381

$3,654

1

5

4

Charlotte's Web

$7.5

-36%

3,450

$2,271

4

6

22

Children of Men

$6.3

1237%

1,210

$5,207

2

7

5

The Good Shepherd

$6.1

-43%

2,250

$2,711

3

8

New

Freedom Writers

$5.9

N/A

1,360

$4,338

1

9

6

Rocky Balboa

$5.5

-48%

2,850

$1,856

3

10

7

We Are Marshall

$4.6

-44%

2,400

$1,699

3

13

New

Code Name: The Cleaner

$3.8

N/A

1,736

$2,189

1

Est. Weekend Total
$89.70

Est. Avg. Drop-Off
-118%

Est. Average PTA
$3,526


Up until the last two years, the first week in January has been fairly light with mostly throwaway movies and expanding awards fodder, but that changed in 2005 with Universal's surprise hit White Noise, followed last year by Eli Roth's Hostel, which continued Lionsgate's tradition of solid R-rated horror.

This weekend looks to return the weekend to status quo with three new movies in wide release and only four new movies total, though none of them look strong enough to take down last week's Top 3, as Ben Stiller's Night at the Museum remains firmly at the top despite a reasonable drop. Opening in the most theatres, Lionsgate will attempt something new with their first computer-animated family film Happily N'Ever After, trying to capitalize on the success of CG animated movies like Shrek and last year's Weinstein offering Hoodwinked with a fairy tale influenced story that should appeal to kids. It should have a decent opening this weekend with solid legs over the next month with only a few other family films.

Every January, Paramount's MTV Films releases a new movie trying to entice returning students to the movies after their long winter holiday. This year's offering is the real-life scholastic drama of Freedom Writers, starring Hilary Swank. Oddly, they're giving it a rather moderate release this weekend into just 1,200 theatres with plans to open it wider over Martin Luther King Jr. weekend, so it's likely to end up somewhere in the middle of the charts this weekend.

Then there's the new buddy action-comedy movie Code Name: The Cleaner with the unfortunate pairing of Cedric the Entertainer and Lucy Liu. It's doubtful there's much interest in this movie, which looks even worse than Les Mayfield's 2005 action-comedy bomb The Man, making it obvious that New Line is dumping this into the weekend in hopes of getting their trash out of the way earlier this year. Update: It's doubtful this will be getting into the Top 12, but it should end up on the outskirts of the Top 15.

The biggest expansion this weekend is Alfonso Cuarón's futuristic Children of Men (Universal), starring Clive Owen, which adds 1,200 theatres to take advantage of the critical raves it's been getting. It should do decently among 20 to 30 yaer old male genre fans who don't have very much else in theatres to interest them except maybe for Rocky Balboa. Expect Cuarón's film to end up somewhere in the lower half of the Top 10.

Fox Faith's spirtitual thriller Thr3e will open in roughly 400 theatres on Friday, where it should make roughly $1 to $1.3 million.

As mentioned above, this weekend last year saw the release of Eli Roth's horror film Hostel, which made an astounding $19.5 million its opening weekend, while big movies like The Chronicles of Narnia and King Kong continued to do decent business. Those three films helped the Top 10 gross $98 million, which is quite a bit higher than what can be expected this weekend.



THE CHOSEN ONE:

FREEDOM WRITERS (Paramount /MTV Films)
Starring Hilary Swank, Imelda Staunton, Patrick Dempsey, Scott Glenn, Mario, April L. Hernandez, Kristin Herrera, Jason Finn
Written and directed by Richard LaGravenese (Living Out Loud, A Decade Under the Influence, writer of The Mirror Has Two Faces, The Horse Whisperer, The Fisher King, The Bridges of Madison County, A Little Prince)
Genre: Drama
Rated PG-13
Tagline: "our story. our words."
Plot Summary:
23-year-old Erin Gruwell (Hilary Swank) takes on her first teaching assignment, being put in charge a rough group of poor inner city kids at Wilson High School, many of whose lives have been disrupted by gang violence. Using unconventional methods, Gruwell is able to get through to the kids, having them document their lives in journals, taking on the collective name of "Freedom Writers."
Of Note:
Hilary Swank takes on her first scholastic drama, teaming with Richard LaGravenese (The Mirror Has Two Faces, The Horse Whisperer) for the first of two movies this year.
REVIEW


While I'm saving most of my comments on this movie for my review, I was surprised how much I liked this movie. At first, I thought I was watching a needless retread of Dangerous Minds, but the true story of the Wilson High School Freedom Writers turns into a really inspirational and touching story, one that requires more than a few hankies at times. Usually, I'm a bit mixed on Hilary Swank, but this was one of her better roles, and it really showcases a lot of great young talent who hopefully will be seen and scooped for other roles. Kudos to Paramount, MTV Films and Richard LaGravenese for starting the year off with such a strong film.

Pros:
The collegiate or scholastic drama has always been a mainstay around Oscar season, since there's always an older audience interested in this type of story. From movies like Dead Poets Society, which received a number of Oscar noms, to Mr. Holland's Opus and Good Will Hunting. In recent years, a new derivative of the genre has cropped up dealing with troubled inner city kids and a role model or mentor trying to help them. One of the earliest of these was Dangeorus Minds starring Michelle Pfeiffer, but it's become very frequent thanks to the efforts of MTV Films in creating movies that will appeal to teens and returning students. From movies like Varsity Blues to Save the Last Dance, Orange County and 2005's Coach Carter, MTV Films has found a way to make movies about school more interesting to those having to return to it. Freedom Writers continues that tradition with the real life story of inner city students who made good thanks to the help of their ultra-supportive teacher Erin Gruwell. It's a strong inspirational story that should appeal to those who enjoy those other films mentioned.

Directed by Richard LaGravenese, an Oscar nominated screenwriter whose written a lot of great dramas, the movie has a strong cast starting with two-time Oscar winner Hilary Swank taking on a lighter and more feminine role than some of her other films. Swank still has a bit of clout following her second Oscar win for Clint Eastwood's Million Dollar Baby, which grossed over $100 million. Freedom Writers is more the type of movie expected of an Oscar winner than something like Brian De Palma's The Black Dahlia or genre films like The Core, so Swank's older fans should be interested in this.

She has some great support from the likes of former teen star Patrick Dempsey, now star of the hit ABC show "Grey's Anatomy," and Imelda Staunton, who was Swank's main competition at the 2005 Oscars, something which translates well to the movie. It also stars R ‘n' B singer Mario in his big-screen debut and a cast of talented young actors.

The good thing is that a movie like this usually can do well over Martin Luther King Jr. weekend, and it's not really the type of movie that has to open big to be able to have legs if word-of-mouth is good.

Cons:
The biggest problem facing Freedom Writers is that most people might feel like they've seen this before and as we've seen a lot lately there's a certain amount of declining returns with movies that follow a certain formula. (Just look at last year's football movies and how they made less money with each one.) Unlike the other MTV Films, which had sports or dancing to entice younger viewers into theatres, Freedom Writers is all about the scholastics and learning, something that's worthy of making a movie about, but isn't quite as exciting as the basketball games in Coach Carter or the dance moves in Antonio Banderas' Take the Lead.

In a rather odd decision, Paramount/MVT has decided to open this movie more moderately than usual in just 1,200 theatres, going against the normal attitude of trying to open a movie as wide as possible its first weekend to have the best first weekend placement. It's possible they realize how hard a sell this is and are being a bit more cautious, hoping that word-of-mouth for those who see it opening weekend will get to others, who'll then go out to see it over the extended Martin Luther King Jr. weekend, when they'll expand it into 1,000 or more theatres. This could be a smart move or this could end up biting them on the butt if no one even bothers to see it this weekend.

Unfortunately, this movie won't have an appeal to the urban audiences who might get the most out of it, mainly due to the "white bread" casting of Swank, Staunton and Dempsey. High school kids in urban areas won't need to see this movie 'cause they live it, and are more likely to wait until next week for Stomp the Yard, which could severely cut into Freedom Writers' business. (This is likely one of the reasons why Paramount decided to open the movie a week earlier fully knowing that the first weekend of the year tends to be bad for new movies.)

Freedom Writers is definitely in danger of mirroring last year's Akeelah and the Bee, a critically loved scholastic film that no one bothered to see because it was about spelling bees--not particularly urban. With that in mind, Freedom Writers will have to rely on other markets and demos, particularly women and older moviegoers, if it's going to be successful.

COMPARISONS


Why I Should See It: A powerful and inspirational true story
Why Not: Some will feel that they've seen this same story way too many times.
Projections:
$4 to 6 million opening; $24 million total.

CODE NAME: THE CLEANER (New Line)
Starring Cedric The Entertainer, Lucy Liu, Nicollette Sheridan, Elizabeth Hurley, DeRay Davis
Directed by Les Mayfield (Blue Streak, The Man, Flubber, Encino Man, American Outlaws); Written by Robert Adetuyi (Turn It Up, opening next week: Stomp the Yard), George Gallo (Midnight Run, Trapped in Paradise, Bad Boys, The Whole Ten Yards)
Genre: Action, Comedy
Rated PG-13
Tagline: "In a dirty world, he's our only hope." (God help us all!)
Plot Summary:
A janitor named Jake (Cedric the Entertainer) winds up in bed with a corpse and $250,000, unable to remember who he is, allowing a number of corrupt government official to convince Jake he's an undercover special ops agent who has some information on a deadly new government weapon.
Of Note: Les Mayfield and George Gallo, two mainstays in the buddy comedy genre, return with a movie that pairs Cedric the Entertainer with Lucy Liu.
Mini-Review: It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out where this silly comedy went wrong, ripping-off the simple premise from a bad Jackie Chan movie and transplanting it into an overly-complex government plot that has the audience trying to figure out whether Cedric is a janitor or a special ops agent. Whichever he is, Cedric just isn't very funny, I mean not even a little bit, as he plays down his trademark smart-mouthed style for sillier physical humor to try to appeal to a broader audience. Instead, he allows the likes of DeRay Davis and Niecy Nash to upstage him with even sillier bits. (The fact that the end credit improvisations are funnier than any of the written gags is far too telling.) Lucy Liu doesn't do much to improve things when she shows up about a half hour into the movie after Cedric has already romped with a smokin' hot Nicollette Sheridan in sexy lingerie. All the
objectification of Cedric's female co-stars doesn't do much to improve the fact that the whole movie fluctuates between being idiotic, inane or just plain inept. Somewhere, John Candy and Chris Farley are high-fivin' each other that they died before they were coerced into headlining this stinker. Rating: 3/10

Pros:
While there are probably going to be more cons than pros on this one, this does have the benefits of having a simple premise that's easily understood, masterminded by two guys who have had a lot of experience with this kind of buddy comedy: Les Mayfield, the director of Blue Streak and The Man, and George Gallo, who wrote Midnight Run and Bad Boys, the latter being a huge hit for Will Smith and Martin Lawrence.

One might assume that Cedric the Entertainer has some sort of following from appearing in the Barbershop movies, but he hasn't really been able to carry a movie on his own, as seen by recent bombs like Man of the House and The Honeymooners. It would seem from those movies that Ice Cube was a bigger draw for the Barbershop movies, since he's been able to find success with his solo movies, such as Are We There Yet? (Coincidentally, Cedric's biggest non-Barbershop hit was the similar Johnson Family Vacation.)

Apparently, someone thought it would be a good idea to team Cedric with the ultra-adorable Lucy Liu, whose been in more bombs than plutonium. Maybe they were looking at this pairing as some sort of multi-ethnic Rush Hour type thing that could appeal to two ethnic audiences who don't have much geared towards them. If they're lucky, the Year of the Dumb will carry over slightly into 2007 or else this is doomed.

Just to make things interesting, they've added an unknown quantity in "Desperate Housewives" star Nicolette Sheridan, who'll probably bring as much to this movie as Eva Longoria has brought to her one or two movies last year. It's doubtful that the show's female fans will have much interest in this kind of movie.

Cons: Most of the cons have seeped into the section above, but the sad fact is that neither Cedric nor Lucy nor Les Mayfield have had very much box office success in recent years, so who on earth thought that teaming them all together would be a good idea? Cedric has a few hits under his belt like Johnson Family Vacation, but this movie throws him into a genre that ran its course years ago, as seen by Mayfield's last action-comedy was The Man with Samuel L. Jackson and Eugene Levy in 2005, which barely made $4 million its opening weekend despite the popularity of its two stars, which is considerably more than Cedric and Lucy Liu. As much as I love Lucy Liu, she just can't open movies as seen by the likes of Ballistic: Ecks vs. Sever and Domino. The movie's premise is pretty bad, falling into the same territory as Jackie Chan's The Tuxedo or movies like Agent Cody Banks and the recent bomb Alex Rider: Operation Stormbreaker, and it doesn't look very funny, even compared to some of Cedric's other films. It'll be interesting to see how many theatres New Line is able to get this into, but I wouldn't expect it to be more than 2,000.

COMPARISONS


Why I Should See It: You have a few hours to kill and way too much Christmas money burning a hole in your wallet.
Why Not: Because you'd be better off volunteering or donating money to help others, since this looks like it could be one of the unfunniest movies ever made.
Projections: $3 to 5 million opening; $8 to 10 million total.

HAPPILY N'EVER AFTER (Lionsgate)
Starring (the voices of) Sarah Michelle Gellar, Sigourney Weaver, Freddie Prinze Jr., George Carlin, Wallace Shawn, Andy Dick, Patrick Warburton
Directed by Paul G. Bolger (debut); Written by Robert Moreland (Space Marines, Ground Control)
Genre: Animation, Comedy, Family
Rated PG
Tagline: "Fairytale endings aren't what they used to be."
Plot Summary: The story of Cinderella is given a unique spin as her evil stepmother Frieda (voiced by Sigourney Weaver) plans on taking over Fairy Tale Land by casting a spell that throws the normal fairy tale endings into disarray, so "Ella" (Sarah Michelle Gellar) must put aside her normal damsel in distress tendencies to stop her plan.
Of Note:
This is the first computer animated film of '07, as well as the first venture by Lionsgate into this territory.

Pros:
After a year jam-packed with computer-animated movies of different sizes, shapes and box office results, it doesn't seem like making CG-animated family films are the best way for a studio to spend their money, which is why it's odd to see the burgeoning indie Lionsgate, who is not really known for family films, jumping into the game with their first computer-animated film.

There's something to be said about making an animated film based on fairy tale characters known to kids, as seen by Shrek and last year's Weinstein Company hit Hoodwinked, and the humor in this looks like the kind of things that younger kids might enjoy, even if it doesn't do as well among older kids and teens without a big name voice star like Mike Myers or Eddie Murphy. This one is based on the character in the classic fairy tale "Cinderella" and it's being sold based on the Shrek name, as it shares one of the dozens of producers of the movie that's still considered to be the epitome of the CG animated genre. Using "from the producer of Shrek" as a selling point is nothing new, and though Happily seems to have a similar tone, it's not written or directed by anyone involved with Shrek and the animation doesn't look nearly as well developed, even when compared to the original.

Without the financial backing of a Disney or a DreamWorks, the movie ends up with a mixed bag in terms of voice cast, though it does feature the voices of that darling married couple of Sarah Michelle Gellar and Freddie Prinze Jr. providing voices for the two main characters after appearing in two Scooby Doo movies together. It also features the voice of Sigourney Weaver, George Carlin and living cartoon character Andy Dick, as well as animation mainstays like Wallace Shawn and Patrick Warburton (The Emperor's New Groove, "Family Guy" and "The Tick").

While opening a family movie so soon after the holidays seems odd, they're getting it into theatres before next week's three-day holiday weekend with no other family films, so it should have solid legs if it's halfway decent.

Cons: The fact that Lionsgate has to rely on the good old "from the producers of Shrek" label in its advertising gives you some idea how weak this film may be in terms of originality, considering that it doesn't have any of the writers, director or animators behind Shrek. There really doesn't seem to be very much new here, something that greatly hurt computer-animated movies like The Wild and The Ant Bully, which followed Madagascar and Antz using a similar premise.

January isn't a very good time to release a kids movies, especially not the first weekend since many kids and parents are likely to be "movied out" from the holidays. Because most people took Monday off from work/school, few parents with small kids are likely to go out until the weekend, which means that Friday will be dead, and Happily will be relying heavily on that weekend business.

It doesn't help that both parents and kids are getting burnt out on computer animated movies with there being so many of them on a weekly basis. Lionsgate doesn't have the experience in selling family movies as much as Disney or DreamWorks do, and they're not likely to get the movie into as many theatres or screens as other recent CG-animated films. On top of that, there's still a lot of stronger family films in theatres including Charlotte's Web, A Night at the Museum, and Happy Feet.

COMPARISONS

Why I Should See It: From the commercials, this seems like it could be a cute and funny spin on a classic fairy tale for the kids.
Why Not: If this is as big a hit as last year's Hoodwinked, these ridiculous fairy tale spin-off movies will never end.
Projections:
$8 to 10 million opening; $30 million total.



IN LIMITED RELEASE:

THR3E (Fox Faith) - Horror gets spiritual in this thriller based on the best-seller by Ted Dekker about a seminary student who teams with a criminologist to solve the clues left by a serial killer before he strikes again. It will open in 250 theatres on Friday with a big push through churches via the Fox Faith imprint.


Next week, the first holiday of 2007, Martin Luther King Jr. weekend with the dance movie Stomp the Yard, the true-life crime drama Alpha Dog, the horror-thriller Primeval as well as Luc Besson's animated family film Arthur and the Invisibles.


Copyright 2007 Edward Douglas


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