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The Weekend Warrior
Your Weekly Guide to New Movies for
January 26, 2007
By Edward Douglas -
Greetings and welcome back to the Weekend Warrior,
your weekly guide to the weekend's new movies. Tune in every Tuesday
for the latest look at the upcoming weekend, and then check back on
Friday for final projections based on actual theatre counts.
Because the Weekend Warrior has
been covering the Sundance Film Festival for the past week, the column
is going to be
rather minimal--apologies in advance-- though there will be
an update later this week.
(If
you have anything to say about anything written in this column, feedback
and Email is always welcome,
and almost always responded to.)
THE WEEKEND PREDICTIONS: (final update 1.25.07)
|
TW |
LW |
Title |
Weekend (in millions) |
Change |
# Of Theaters |
Average |
Week |
|
1 |
New |
Epic Movie |
$20.6 |
N/A |
2,801 |
$7,355 |
1 |
|
2 |
New |
Smokin' Aces |
$14.1 |
N/A |
2,250 |
$6,397 |
1 |
|
3 |
2 |
Night at the Museum |
$8.1 |
-34% |
3,241 |
$2,499 |
6 |
|
4 |
1 |
Stomp the Yard |
$7.0 |
-43% |
2,115 |
$3,310 |
3 |
|
5 |
New |
Catch and Release |
$5.7 |
N/A |
1,550 |
$3,514 |
1 |
|
6 |
3 |
Dreamgirls |
$5.6 |
-30% |
2,785 |
$2,011 |
7 |
|
7 |
5 |
The Pursuit of Happyness |
$4.1 |
-35% |
2,688 |
$1,525 |
7 |
|
8 |
?? |
The Departed |
$4.0 |
1328% |
1,453 |
$2,753 |
17 |
|
9 |
7 |
Pan's Labyrinth |
$3.7 |
-19% |
823 |
$4,496 |
5 |
|
10 |
4 |
The Hitcher |
$3.5 |
-55% |
2,836 |
$1,234 |
2 |
11
|
New |
Blood and Chocolate |
$3.3 |
N/A |
1,200 |
$2,533 |
1 |
|
|
|
Est. Weekend Total
$79.70 |
Est. Avg. Drop-Off
159% |
|
Est. Average PTA
$3,722 |
|
January wraps up with a busy weekend with four new movies, the only
one looking even remotely appealing being Joe Carnahan’s third film
Smokin’ Aces
(Universal), and even that’s going to be a bit of an acquired taste
mostly for older guys.
Sadly, the one that’s likely to bring in the most business will be the latest
satire flick from 20th Century Fox, Epic Movie (20th Century
Fox), which makes fun of the blockbuster fantasy and action films of recent
years, much like last year’s semi-successful Date Movie. The significantly
larger theatre count than the other new movies will help it do decently,
though the appeal of the comedy to diehard fans of the Harry Potter movies, Chronicles
of Narnia, Pirates of the Caribbean and the other spoofed movies
(most of which made over $200 million) may be enough to put this over the
top this weekend for #1.
At least Carnahan’s Smokin’ Aces has the stronger cast, including
Ryan Reynolds, Jeremy Pivens, Ben Affleck, Andy Garcia, Ray Liotta and Alicia
Keys and rapper Common in their big screen debuts. It also has a decent action-thriller
premise about a Vegas entertainer (Piven) holed up in Reno while half a dozen
hitmen converge on his location to collect a high bounty. It’s the kind of
R-rated movie that will appeal to guys 17 and over, who might not be so keen
on the stupid comedy of Epic Movie (which isn’t being screened for
critics for that very same reason).
Jennifer Garner makes her return to the big screen in Catch and Release (Sony),
her first movie since 2005’s Elektra. This one is a romantic comedy
written and directed by Susannah Grant (Erin Brockovich), which
co-stars none other than Kevin Smith. Although Smith’s fans and the male
fans who liked Garner on the ABC drama “Alias” might have some interest,
it’s highly doubtful that any guy will be convinced to see this chick flick
over one of the other new movies. That pretty much leaves women over 30
for this one, not exactly an audience known for racing out to movies, particularly
ones being dumped into a busy weekend after being shuffled around the schedule
for so long.
Because of the stronger new movies and those already in theatres, MGM’s
action-thriller Blood and Chocolate (MGM),
starring Agnes Bruckner as a werewolf in love, is likely to get
lost in the shuffle. Written and executive-produced by Ehren Kruger (The
Ring), the film suffers from a cast with very little box office draw,
as well as one of the absolutely worst trailers, which makes the movie
look even worse than it actually is. This should end up in the bottom of
the Top 10, if not just outside, becoming the latest bomb for the struggling
MGM.
As far as returning movies and Oscar fare, Martin Scorsese’s The Departed gets kicked
back up to over 1,300 theatres mere weeks before its DVD release, with
Warner Bros. hoping that enough people who missed it the first time will
be intrigued enough by all the awards buzz on the movie to see it in a
theatre. Likewise, Guillermo del Toro’s Pan’s Labyrinth (Picturehouse)
is likely to expand into even more theatres after a successful wide expansion
and receiving a number of Oscar nominations. It stands a good chance at
remaining in the Top 10 despite the number of new movies.
Also capitalizing on their awards nominations is Pedro Almodóvar’s Volver
(Sony Classics) and the British thriller Notes on a Scandal (Fox
Searchlight), starring current Oscar holders and recent Oscar nominees
Judi Dench and Cate Blanchett--each will expand into over 600 theaters.
Having opened only a month ago, the latter is more likely to find
an
audience in its wider release, though it’s likely to come up short
of the Top 10 with around $2 million, while Volver, starring
the Oscar-nominated Penelópe Cruz, is likely to end up with around
$1.5 million.
Although this is a minimalist column, you can see COMPARISONS for
all four new movies here.
This week’s CHOSEN ONE is SCREAMERS
(Maya Releasing), a new documentary from Carla Garapedian (Beneath
the Veil, Lifting the Veil and Iraq
Undercover).
Fans of metal band System of a Down will most certainly want to try to
find this strange mix of concert film and political documentary, which
examines the origins of genocide going back to Turkey during the early
20th Century where over a million Armenians were slaughtered,
something that’s been covered up by the Turkish government to this day.
Descendents of Turkish Armenians themselves, the members of the band have
incorporated many messages about the slaughter into their music, and though
I’ve never been a big fan of their odd and quirky sound, the movie does
a good job showing why they do what they do, while exploring all angles
of genocide and why governments are so nervous about using the word when
discussing the wanton murder of people for racial or religious reasons.
Having already played in L.A., it finally opens in New York this weekend.
In limited release, there’s David von Ancken’s debut feature Seraphim Falls (Samuel
Goldwyn/Destination Films), a Western starring Pierce Brosnan and Liam
Neeson as feuding former Civil War soldiers on a chase across the wilderness.
It’s not often that you see a movie executive produced by an Academy
award-winning cinematographer, but that may be why this Western, shot
by the legendary John Toll (Braveheart, The Last Samurai),
looks so amazing. A definite must-see for fans of Westerns and other
films from that era (like Cold Mountain).
Next week, I guess it’s already February. Would you look at that? The
month kicks off with the horror film The Messengers from
Thailand’s The Pang Brothers and Diane Keaton and Mandy Moore in Because I Said So.
(And The Weekend Warrior will be back to full-on coverage mode, as well.)
Copyright 2007 Edward Douglas
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