(If you have anything to say about anything written in this column, feedback and Email is always welcome, and almost always responded to.)

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THE BATTLE CRY!

Having just gotten back from the Sundance Film Festival, I was going to talk about my impressions of it, but that’s pretty well covered on the ComingSoon.net Blog, so instead I want to ponder why studios seem to have such a difficult time figuring out one of the easiest hurdles any movie has to face, that being the critics.

Many times over the last year, I’ve used this space to discuss the decision by studios to not screen their movies and how critics immediately have an attitude towards movies that aren’t screened for them. I’ve also talked about the fact that some critics will go into a movie knowing that it’s made by such-and-such director or starring so-and-so actor and already have some sort of bias about it. (Or it could be the genre that puts them off, like with me and romantic comedies.)

Of course, there’s also that rare case when you have critics and journalists really wanting to see your movie. When that is the case, you think that a studio or distributor would make every effort to make sure that select audience gets to see their movie. After all, how can it hurt when they already have a captive audience that has been enticed by the trailer or commercial and is looking forward to see the movie? This audience of “benevolent critics” is something studios can capitalize on to get those lovely advertising quotes or who’ll talk up the movie to friends and readers.

But oddly, studios don’t seem to be able to find these people even when they’re right in front of their nose. Maybe they’re just used to the number of cranky critics who go see movies begrudgingly, because that’s their job. No one believes me when I tell them, but watching movies all the time isn’t nearly as fun when you have to write about them for a living. But why on earth would a studio want to make that job even more difficult by making critics wake up early in the morning on opening day to see the movie, which immediately puts the entire movie-watching situation in a negative light? Who knows, but it’s happening more and more, just as there are more studios that only give critics one chance, usually opening week, to see a movie, meaning they have to cram to write a review.

It might be obvious to some that writing a weekly column requires seeing a lot of movies and to do that often requires a lot of schedule juggling. There really are only four weekday nights a week (Mon ­ Thurs) for press screenings and most critics have to be selective. Yet, few studios have figured out how to offer screenings at different times of day so that critics will have more chances to see their movie. While there’s something good to be said about “all-media” screenings--usually multiplex rooms filled to capacity with non-critics who can help create the mood of seeing a movie with a real audience--some critics like to know they’ll have peace and quiet while watching a movie and that there won’t be people kicking their seats, so putting them in the same area as the non-press is often asking for even more trouble. Some studios will do a reserved section but then only allow only select TV or print critics in there, leaving the onliners to fare with the punters. And whose reviews will often be the first ones people see? That’s right, the ones online from the critics who had to suffer the experience of noisy neighbors.

With that in mind, if you happen to work at a studio or publicity house and you already know how many critics are going to see your movies begrudgingly, why make their lives and jobs more difficult, therefore giving them even more reason to trash your movies? It’s all a matter of professionalism and respect, something that is expected of critics and journalists, but it’s also something that needs to go both ways. When critics are treated like crap, they in turn feel justified in crapping all over the studio, its employees, and especially its movies.

It’s pretty obvious that there are a number of studios who don’t care what critics think, they don’t care if a bad review is the only press their movie is going to get, and heck, some studio personnel might not even really care about the movies they’re shilling. But if most of the employees at these studios know the movies they’re releasing are bad, why release them at all? If a movie’s not good enough to show a critic for free, how can someone expect someone to PAY for the experience?

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THE WEEKEND PREDICTIONS: (final update 2.1.07)

TW	LW	Title	Weekend (in millions)	Change	# Of Theaters	Average	Week
1	New	Because I Said So	$13.5	N/A	2,526	$5,344	1
2	New	The Messengers	$11.2	N/A	2,528	$4,430	1
3	1	Epic Movie	$9.0	-51%	2,840	$3,285	2
4	2	Smokin' Aces	$7.6	-48%	2,219	$3,403	2
5	3	Night at the Museum	$6.7	-30%	3,003	$2,310	7
6	4	Catch and Release	$4.5	-43%	1,645	$2,736	2
7	5	Stomp the Yard	$4.3	-44%	2,169	$2,324	4
8	6	Dreamgirls	$4.2	-38%	2,797	$1,508	8
9	8	Pan's Labyrinth	$3.5	-27%	1,082	$3,142	6
10	9	The Queen	$3.3	-18%	1,850	$1,737	19
			Est. Weekend Total $67.70	Est. Avg. Drop-Off -37%		Est. Average PTA $2,975

Kicking off the month of February, the big news this weekend is Super Bowl Sunday, always one of the biggest sporting events of the year which inevitably keeps people away from theatres. As has been the case in past years, this weekend is once again about a horror movie taking on a romantic comedy. This year, the latter might win as Diane Keaton and Mandy Moore star in the chick flick Because I Said So, with the former playing the overbearing mother of the latter. It will probably target women over 30 who haven’t had much to see besides the long-playing Oscar fare, and it will give them an early start for the upcoming Valentines Day holiday.

Screen Gems and Sam Raimi’s Ghosthouse Pictures, both of whom have had success over Super Bowl weekend, release the Pang Brothers ghost film The Messengers, which will try to bring in the same audiences who flocked to see The Grudge and Boogeyman, though the movie might suffer from a campaign that makes it look a bit too much like both those movies. Although there might be a close race between the two movies on Friday night, expect The Messengers to be hurt more by the lack of business on Super Bowl Sunday.

Otherwise, the big game shouldn’t have too much of an effect on the box office except for movies geared towards guys like Joe Carnahan’s Smokin’ Aces.

Last year, Screen Gems’ remake of When a Stranger Calls won Super Bowl weekend with $21.6 million, while the romantic comedy offering Something New had a weak opening of under $4 million in 1,288 theatres. The Top 10 movies made $76 million, which is probably more than we’ll see this weekend’s movies making.

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THE CHOSEN ONE:

AN UNREASONABLE MAN (IFC First Take)
Starring Ralph Nader, Pat Buchanan, Rep. John Conyers Jr, Phil Donohue, William Greider, Howard Zinn, Mark Green
Directed by Henriette Mantel, Steve Skrovan
Genre: Documentary, Politics

Now it may be good to know that I’m a registered independent and believe strongly in a more-than-two-party political system, but I have to admit that I’ve never voted for Ralph Nader. Maybe it’s because I always thought of his as this consumer advocate and not really presidential material, but this new documentary which covers Nader’s conflict with and career in government going back to his ‘60s disputes with General Motors helps shed life on the former Green Party candidate. It’s interesting how unbiased and impartially this film examines the life and political aspirations of the quirky spokesman for the people, opening with a barrage of attacks on Nader’s decision to run for President in 2004 after being blamed for the Florida results that put Bush in the office in first place. After getting into a bit of Nader history, it comes back to the elections, the most interesting part of the movie, because it talks to experts who, counter to diehard liberals’ claims, believe that the results would have turned out the same with or without Nader in the ’00 election. A far better movie than both Fahrenheit 9/11 and the recent So the Nation Goes…, the doc’s an even bigger indictment against the likes of Michael Moore and Bill Maher, who supported Nader in 2000, then attacked him when he decided to run again in 2004. Even with the amount of talking heads, it’s still nice to see a doc about the election that covers it without the obvious liberal slant, making this a truly independent film about a true independent. It opens at the IFC Center in New York on Friday, and can be seen on the IFC First Take cable system.

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BECAUSE I SAID SO (Universal)
Starring Diane Keaton, Mandy Moore, Gabriel Macht, Tom Everett Scott, Lauren Graham, Piper Perabo, Steven Collins
Directed by Michael Lehmann (Heathers, My Giant, Hudson Hawk, 40 Days and 40 Nights); Written by Karen Leigh Hopkins (Stepmom), Jessie Nelson (Stepmom, The Story of Us, I am Sam)
Genre: Comedy, Romance
Rated PG-13
Tagline: “She's just your normal, overprotective, overbearing, over-the-top mother.”
Plot Summary: Daphne Wilder (Diane Keaton) has done fine with her older two daughters (Lauren Graham, Piper Perabo) but when it comes to her youngest, the klutzy Milly (Mandy Moore), she feels she has to get more directly involved with finding her a man. Although she has her sights set on Jason (Tom Everett Scott), a successful architect, Milly herself seems more interested in musician Johnny (Gabriel Macht), who just so happens to have a single father who is interested in Daphne.
Of Note: Diane Keaton has a difficult time escaping from the romantic comedy genre with another foray into it.
Analysis: Since it’s February, it must be time for the type of man-hating chick flicks that have always done well in the weeks leading up to the year’s biggest Hallmark holiday, Valentine's Day. Sure, there are probably a few guys out there who love being able to buy flowers and cards and candy for their wives and girlfriends, but it’s become just another lame excuse for studios to release bad formulaic romantic comedies whose only reason for existing is to emasculate the men who want to make their women happy. (Cynical? Me?)

The premise for this one is almost exactly the opposite of the Hilary Duff bomb The Perfect Man in that it’s about the mother finding that perfect man for her daughter, but it follows most of the usual romantic comedy formulas that appeal to the women who loved movies like Failure to Launch and Must Love Dogs and The Wedding Date and The Wedding Planner (the latter two having also opened over Super Bowl weekend).

The good thing is that the mother is played by Diane Keaton, who has starred in so many successful chick-flick comedies that one has to imagine that her fanbase of older women will be out to see this one as well. Keaton’s last two movies, Something’s Gotta Give and The Family Stone opened during the holiday season, though this one is coming out during the slower winter season, same as Hanging Up, a smaller hit released in a similar number of theatres as Because I Said So.

As much of a box office draw Diane Keaton has proven herself to be, her co-star 22-year-old Mandy Moore seems to have the knack for driving people away from theatres whenever she’s in a movie, something seen by her last three wide-released movies American Dreamz, Chasing Liberty and How to Deal, none of which opened over $6 million. It’s a bit of a shame because the part-time pop singer actually had a decent debut with the romantic drama A Walk to Remember in 2002 but hasn’t done much to capitalize on that. The question is whether Moore will drag down Keaton’s ability to pull in older female moviegoers with her presence or if Moore might actually help the movie bring in a younger female audience as well.

There probably should be some kind of warning in front of any movie that features actress Piper Perabo, because her decisions about what movies to act in seems to have little to do with quality, but at least the movie also has Lauren Graham of “The Gilmore Girls” to balance things out. Graham is likely to be more of a draw to women than Perabo.

Looking at Super Bowl weekends past, romantic comedies have generally done well with Jennifer Lopez’s The Wedding Planner being a good example of stars and premise clicking with the female audience neglected by their men when it comes to the football event. Four years later, Debra Messing of “Will & Grace” starred in the similarly named The Wedding Date, which did well despite opening in nearly 1,000 fewer theatres than Because I Said So. While Diane Keaton’s new movie doesn’t have the benefits of the word “Wedding” in the title--you’d be amazed how many women will go see a movie for that reason alone--it does have Diane Keaton, an easy to consume premise and a strong enough marketing campaign that it should do okay among the demographic that probably won’t have much interest in the final football game of the season. One shouldn’t expect the reviews to be very positive, but the audience who might see this usually care about reviews if it looks like something they might enjoy.

Comparisons:

Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
The Family Stone	12/16/05	2,466	$12.52	$5,077	$60.06
Something's Gotta Give	12/12/03	2,677	$16.06	$6,001	$111.88
Town and Country	4/27/01	2,222	$3.03	$1,363	$6.71
Hanging Up	2/18/00	2,618	$13.57	$5,183	$36.04
First Wives Club	9/20/96	1,922	$18.91	$9,839	$105.49
American Dreamz	4/21/06		$3.67	$2,445	$7.16
Chasing Liberty	1/9/04	2,400	$6.08	$2,534	$12.19
How to Deal	7/18/03	2,319	$5.81	$2,505	$14.11
Something New	2/3/06	1,265	$4.87	$3,857	$11.43
The Wedding Date	2/4/05	1,695	$11.13	$6,566	$31.59
The Wedding Planner	1/26/01	2,785	$13.51	$4,851	$60.40
Must Love Dogs	7/29/05	2,505	$12.86	$5,132	$43.67
The Perfect Man	6/17/05	2,087	$5.30	$2,540	$16.25

Analysis: Being a big fan of The Pang Brothers ever since seeing the Hong Kong/Thailand collaborative horror-thriller The Eye a few years ago, I don’t want to look a gift horse in the mouth, considering that their first English language film has been bounced around the release schedule for a long time before finally being turned into Sony/Screen Gems’ Super Bowl weekend horror offering (see Darkness Falls and Boogeyman for previous offerings… or don’t, because they’re both really bad).

The Messengers is trying to capitalize on the success of the PG-13 ghost film trend that peaked with 2003’s The Grudge, also produced by Raimi and directed by an Asian filmmaker. Since then, it’s gone downhill with lots of disappointments and bombs like Pulse and The Return, which both showed tell-tale signs of the waning genre. Even though the Pang Brothers are inventive filmmakers, this thriller doesn’t look that different from all of the other ghost movies that have come out in recent years, so for some people, it may as well be The Grudge 3.

Although horror movies certainly don’t need stars, Kristen Stewart, who debuted in David Fincher’s Panic Room, isn’t likely to do much to get anyone into theatres, even if she’s reprising her role from the Sharon Stone movie Cold Creek Manor. The same can be said for Dylan McDermott and Penelope Ann Miller, the latter who starred in the horror movie The Relic. Neither Boogeyman nor When a Stranger Calls had stars, but they also had stronger trailers that made them look like the type of scary fare that teens might enjoy. The lack of other movies this weekend for the teen audience--one can’t expect Epic Movie to hold up too well considering how bad word-of-mouth has been--might help The Messengers get some business, but Screen Gems hasn’t gone too far out of their way to push the movie.

The thing working the most against the movie is the Super Bowl on Sunday, which will cut any chance of legs off at the knees, even despite Screen Gems’ past successes opening horror and ghost films against the Super Bowl with movies like 2004’s Boogeyman (also produced by Sam Raimi’s company) and Darkness Falls two years before that.

Like most of their recent horror films, Sony isn’t screening this for critics, which usually is not a good sign that they’re confident in the quality of the movie, knowing that many critics will be ready to pan it, hurting its chances over the weekend. Then again, without any reviews, the fans of the genre might not even know of the movie’s existence, which could hurt just as much as bad reviews.

Comparisons:

Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Catch That Kid	2/6/04	2,847	$5.82	$2,046	$16.70
Cold Creek Manor	9/19/03	2,035	$8.19	$4,025	$21.38
Panic Room	3/29/02	3,053	$30.06	$9,845	$95.31
The Return	11/10/06	1,984	$4.48	$2,258	$7.74
Boogeyman	2/4/05	3,052	$19.02	$6,232	$46.36
The Grudge	10/22/04	3,245	$39.13	$12,058	$110.18
Darkness Falls	1/24/03	2,837	$12.02	$4,239	$32.54
The Others	8/10/01	1,678	$14.09	$8,397	$96.08

Why I Should See It: The Pang Brothers really know how to deliver the scares, and it’ll be interesting to see what they do with a ghost genre when transplanted into America’s heartland.
Why Not: The eeriest feeling this movie might give audiences is the sense that they’ve seen it before.
Projections: $9 to 11 million opening; $28 million total.

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LIMITED RELEASES:

CONSTELLATION (Codeblack Entertainment) - Billy Dee Williams, Gabriel Union and Zoë Saldana star in this story set in the Deep South about an African-American family forced to come to terms with their troubled past. Will open in 300 theatres across the country.
EAST OF HAVANA (Sony BMG) - Oscar-winning actress Charlize Theron produced this unflinching documentary about the Cuban hip-hop scene from Jauretsi Saizarbitoria and Emilia Menocal focusing on three talented youths living in a Cuban ghetto: Soandry, Magyroi and Mikki. Opening Friday in New York.
IN THE PIT (Kino International) ­ Opening at New York’s Cinema Village, Juan Carlos Rulfo’s documentary chronicles the building of an eleven-mile elevated freeway in Mexico City and how it affects the lives of the construction workers building it.
PUCCINI FOR BEGINNERS (Strand Releasing) - Maria Maggenti’s romantic comedy stars Elizabeth Reaser (The Family Stone) as Allegra, an opera-addicted bisexual, who tries to get over losing her girlfriend by juggling relationships with a philosophy professor (Justin Kirk) and his beautiful ex-girlfriend Grace (Gretchen Mol). This “screwball sex comedy” opens opens in New York (at the Angelika) and in L.A.
Mini-Review: Just when the lesbian sex comedy can’t stoop any lower--don’t worry, Gray Matters is still to come--here comes another man-hating chick-flick consisting of pretty, petty and neurotic New Yorkers waxing philosophical about love and relationships while continually running into each other on the streets just to make sure the plot is even more ridiculous than it could be. Reaser isn’t that bad an actress, but there’s nothing she says or does in this movie that might make one think that so many people would fall head over heels in love with her, let alone put up with her moodiness. Julianne Nicholson and Tina Benko aren’t bad in small roles as Allega’s exes, but otherwise, the movie features a lot of wasted talent, which becomes obvious every time two Japanese sushi chefs come along to steal the movie. Otherwise, it’s just more fake, stereotype characters and clichéd situations that never would really happen in New York, all shot against Maggenti’s favorite New York locations in a way that’s just as offensive to New Yorkers as it is to men and lesbians. Opera fans hoping for a movie that might have anything to do with the musical form will have to be satisfied with the title and a single scene at the Met. (Guess Maggenti went with that title because Kissing Jessica Stein was already taken by a much better movie.) Rating: 4/10
THE SITUATION (Shadow Distribution) ­ Connie Nielsen and Damian Lewis (“Band of Brothers”) star in Phillip Haas’ war drama set in modern-day Iraq, showing the repercussions after a group of American soldiers thrown an Iraqi boy off a bridge. Nielsen plays an American journalist stationed in the war zone who ends up getting caught up in the when she investigates the story with an Iraqi photographer (Mido Hamada). It also opens in New York at the Angelika.
TAZZA: THE HIGH ROLLERS (CJ Entertainment) - Based on the popular comic book, Dong-hun Choi’s South Korean blockbuster hit about high stakes gamblers opens at the ImaginAsian theater on Friday.

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Next week, it’s Eddie Murphy vs. Hannibal Lecter as the nerdy Norbit takes on the young serial killer in the prequel Hannibal Rising. Whoever wins, we lose.

Copyright 2007 Edward Douglas


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