Your Weekly Guide to New Movies for February 16, 2007
By Edward Douglas -

Greetings and welcome back to the Weekend Warrior, your weekly guide to the weekend's new movies. Tune in every Tuesday for the latest look at the upcoming weekend, and then check back on Friday for final projections based on actual theatre counts.

(If you have anything to say about anything written in this column, feedback and Email is always welcome, and almost always responded to.)

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THE BATTLE CRY!

There was something else I was going to write about this week, something that's been talked about a lot on the internet, but then I decided that instead I'm going to use this busy weekend to hold the first-ever SURPRISE WEEKEND WARRIOR GIVE-AWAY!

Although it would probably be appropriate to give away some Ghost Rider stuff this weekend, if I had any I'd probably keep it for myself, so instead, this is all about the Hong Kong films that inspired Martin Scorsese’s Oscar-nominated The Departed, those being Andrew Lau and Alan Mak’s THE INFERNAL AFFAIRS TRILOGY! Special Ops Media were nice enough to give me a copy of the new Collector’s Edition Box Set of all three movies to give away to one lucky reader, and though I wish I had enough to give one to every single person who’s raved about The Departed, claiming it to be Scorsese’s answer to sliced bread, I only have one copy.

And Holy Crap, but we already have a winner! Maybe the questions were too easy, but congrats to Doug Santoro of Ridgefield, CT, who has just won himself three very cool Asian crime films! Also thanks to Charlie Doyle and Ken Fitzpatrick, who were #1 and 2. Don't worry, guys, I'll have some treats for you the next time I get something I can pass along to readers with good taste such as yourselves!)

Since we already have a winner, you can try to answer these questions just for your own practice at doing the kind of research that the Weekend Warrior has to do every week!

1. The actor who plays the part in Infernal Affairs that Leonardo DiCaprio played in The Departed is a well-respected Chinese actor who has worked with some of the country’s greatest filmmakers. Name him and three of his movies.

2. Where do the main characters in Infernal Affairs meet for the first time? A.) A bar; B.) A stereo store; C.) On the roof of a building.

3. The crime boss in Infernal Affairs has made quite a name for himself by doing business with mob bosses from what country? A.) Japan; B.) Russia; C.) Thailand

4. The directors of Infernal Affairs followed the trilogy up with a movie that could be considered the Chinese Fast and the Furious. Name that film.

5. Name the two stars of the John Woo movie that had the most influence on Lau and Mak’s trilogy. (Hint: One of them is in a movie opening this weekend!)

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THE WEEKEND PREDICTIONS (all four-day predictions): (final update 2.15)

TW	LW	Title	Weekend (in millions)	Change	# Of Theaters	Average	Week
1	New	Ghost Rider	$38.5	N/A	3,619	$10,638	1
2	1	Norbit	$21.0	-39%	3,138	$6,692	2
3	New	Bridge to Terabithia	$18.3	N/A	2,850	$5,830	1
4	New	Music and Lyrics	$16.5	N/A	2,929	$5,633	1
5	New	Daddy's Little Girls	$15.8	N/A	2,111	$7,485	1
6	2	Hannibal Rising	$7.7	-41%	3,003	$2,564	2
7	3	Because I Said So	$6.5	-35%	2,446	$2,766	3
8	New	Breach	$6.3	N/A	1,487	$4,237	1
9	5	Night at the Museum	$4.3	-25%	2,350	$2,106	9
10	4	The Messengers	$4.1	-42%	2,183	$1,878	3
			Est. Weekend Total $139.00	Est. Avg. Drop-Off -36%		Est. Average PTA $4,972

It’s another big winter holiday weekend encompassing the week between Valentine’s and President’s Day, where studios release movies trying to take advantage of hopeless romantics and those who have Monday off from work and school. The latter camp i.e. kids are especially good targets for the weekend as parents want to find things to keep their kids busy in the cold of winter. In many ways, this weekend is going to be a battle of the studio marketing teams as Sony takes on Warner Bros. and Disney, all trying to grab the biggest chunk of the box office with the younger upstart Lionsgate making their own play.

The weekend starts early on Wednesday as Hugh Grant and Drew Barrymore team for Warner Bros.’ romantic comedy Music and Lyrics, released just in time to entice the Valentine'sDay dating crowd. Wanting in on that action, Lionsgate is releasing Tyler Perry’s latest Daddy’s Little Girls on Wednesday in hopes that his diehard African-American fanbase will pick that movie for their romantic evening. Both movies should do very well on Wednesday as they compete for the female moviegoers over the next five days. (Update: Daddy's Little Girls made $4.5 million on opening day yesterday to Music and Lyrics' $4.1 million, though the latter's likely to catch up and overtake it by the weekend.)

Unfortunately, three more movies open on Friday and the one that’s likely to attract most if not all of the guys from 13 to 30 is Mark Steven Johnson’s long-awaited movie based on Marvel Comics’ fiery demon hunter Ghost Rider, starring Nicolas Cage as the motorcycle stuntman who turns into a flaming skulled bounty hunter at night. With tons of lead-up including two big appearances at San Diego Comic-Con, the movie should bring in a lot of the business that flocked to Daredevil four years ago and Constantine two years ago, winding up somewhere in between the two.

Eddie Murphy’s hit comedy Norbit might get hurt by the release of Perry’s latest, but it’s still likely to take second place, and after that, it’s a big mess as Music and Lyrics and Daddy’s Little Girls are challenged by the only family film of the weekend on Friday. Katherine Paterson’s 1977 novel Bridge to Terabithia comes to the screen courtesy of Disney and Walden Media, who hope to capture some of the success of their previous book adaptations like Chronicles of Narnia and Holes. It has the benefit of opening on a good weekend for family films and being the first strong family film since Night at the Museum opened nearly two months ago. Expect Daddy’s Little Girl to win of the three on Friday but Terabithia to make out better on the weekend.

Opening in the fewest theatres, Breach, a political spy thriller from Billy Ray (Shattered Glass) and Universal might have trouble finding much of an audience with so much competition, though it might be of interest to the older male crowd looking for something with a little more depth than Ghost Rider.

Those thinking that the market can’t withstand so many new movies opening decently should remember that there aren’t many strong returning movies, so they’ll make room. One can also look to last year where two of the three new movies opening (Disney’s Eight Below and Date Movie) made more than $20 million on the four-day weekend, while Steve Martin’s family film Pink Panther also made $20 million, slightly more in its four-day second weekend than its opening weekend, while the animated Curious George made $15 million. That’s $75 million for four movies right there, three of them being family films. That kind of strength for family films over the holiday weekend is a good sign for Bridge to Terabithia, though parents and the older kids might go with some of the other new movies.

Either way, expect this to be the biggest weekend of the year so far.

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THE CHOSEN ONE:

ANTIBODIES (Slowhand Releasing)
Starring Norman Reedus, Christian von Aster, André Hennicke, Wotan Wilke Möhring, Ulrike Krumbiegel, Hauke Diekamp, Heinz Hoenig
Written and directed by Christian Alvart
Genre: Crime, Drama, Thriller
Story: When one of Germany's most-wanted serial killers Gabrienl Engel (André Hennicke) is arrested by the police, smalltown cop Michael Martens (Wotan Wilke Möhring) is called-in to interrogate the murderous psychopath and get him to confess to his crimes, though instead, the two end up playing a battle of wits that threatens Michael's family and beliefs.

Unfortunately, there were a number of movies I didn’t get to see this week that might have been great films like Close to Home and Grbavica, so with that in mind, I decided to go with this German thriller that I saw at the Tribeca Film Festival a few years ago. (Yes, it's the second week in a row with a German film so sue me!) Since I haven't seen the movie in a few years, I'm going to wait to expand upon why I've picked it as the Chosen One until later in the week when I get a chance to rewatch it, but if you're into films like The Silence of the Lambs and Se7en, you'll be blown away by the moody and chilling work of this talented filmmaker. (Please do check back on Wednesday or Thursday for more details!) Alvart's film will open in New York at the Cinema Village and in L.A. at the Beverly Center, and it’s a great preface to Christian Alvart’s first American movie Case 39, which will be released by Paramount in August.

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MUSIC AND LYRICS (Warner Bros.)
Starring Hugh Grant, Drew Barrymore, Brad Garrett, Kristen Johnston, Campbell Scott, Haley Bennett
Written and directed by Marc Lawrence (Two Weeks Notice, writer of Miss Congeniality and Forces of Nature)
Genre: Romance, Comedy, Musical
Rated PG-13
Plot Summary: Alex Fletcher (Hugh Grant), a has-been ‘80s pop star is given the chance to write a song for a reigning pop diva, but having not written a hit song in years, he needs help with the lyrics. Along comes Sophie Fischer (Drew Barrymore), a quirky florist whose knack for words makes her the perfect collaborator for writing a song that can help revive Alex’s career.
Of Note: The king and one of the queens of romantic comedies pair up to try to make beautiful music together.
Analysis: You really can’t get more of a winning combination for a Valentine’s Day release than Hugh Grant and Drew Barrymore. Both of them have starred in popular movies that women love and that have gone over well with the date crowd. Music and Lyrics is certainly in line with Grant’s previous roles in movies like Love Actually and About a Boy, as well as his last movie with filmmaker Marc Laurence, that being the 2002 romantic comedy Two Weeks Notice which paired him with Sandra Bullock. While the debonair Grant has a way with the ladies, his co-star has had success in romantic comedies that crossed gender borders by pairing her with Adam Sandler, first in The Wedding Singer and then two years ago in 50 First Dates. Both of those movies opened over the Presidents’ Day weekend and benefited greatly from opening before the Valentine’s Day holiday. In between, Barrymore starred in Never Been Kissed, a popular romantic comedy among the teen set. Other than that early film, Barrymore hasn’t been able to sustain a romantic comedy on her own, and even her pairing with Jimmy Fallon in 2005’s Fever Pitch (based on a novel by Nick Hornby, who wrote About a Boy) didn’t do nearly as much business as her movies with Sandler. Either way, having two strong stars means two times the number of talk show appearances to insure that their fans know that they have a new movie.

Although this premise of a songwriter finding aide in an unlikely place may not be that appealing, both stars have such a strong track record with the genre that the movie’s being sold mainly on their names, which should be enough for it to find a large audience of girls and women from teens on up who might not have as much interest in this weekend’s other movies. Certainly, it should do very well by opening on Valentine's Day on Wednesday, making it a first choice for the romantic date crowd that evening, and it should be able to sustain that business through the holiday weekend, though it might be harder for women to convince their guys to see it once Breach and Ghost Rider open on Friday.

Oddly, the movie’s biggest competition over the next six days may be Tyler Perry’s Daddy’s Little Girls, which is also targeting women with its romantic storyline, though it’s more likely to bring in the same black audience that flocked to Perry’s last two movies. Still, the movie is still likely to take away a lot of the date crowd that may have seen this on Wednesday and Friday, though Music and Lyrics has somewhat of an advantage by playing in close to 3,000 theatres and because it actually looks funny, unlike Perry’s movie.

COMPARISONS

Why I Should See It: Putting the cute Barrymore and charming Grant together seems like a match made in heaven.
Why Not: This pairing may just be too cute for its own good,
Projections: $6 to 8 million on Valentine’s Day, another $3 to 4 million on Thursday, and $16 to 18 million over the four-day weekend. That’s roughly $25 to 28 million between Wednesday and Monday on its way to make around $65 million. (Update: We were probably a bit optimistic on our Valentine's Day prediction but expect the weekend to be closer to the low end on our prediction.)

TYLER PERRY’S DADDY’S LITTLE GIRLS (Lionsgate)
Starring Gabrielle Union, Idris Elba, Tasha Smith, Gary Sturgis, Tracee Ellis Ross, Lou Gossett, Jr., Malinda Williams, Terri J. Vaughn, Cassie Davis, Juanita Jennings, LaVan Davis
Written and directed by Tyler Perry (Madea’s Family Reunion, writer of Diary of a Mad Black Woman)
Genre: Comedy, Drama, Romance
Rated PG-13
Tagline: “give life. teach love.”
Plot Summary: Monty (Idris Elba) is a poor garage mechanic trying to make ends meet while raising three young daughters on his own, but when his drug-dealing ex-wife (they’re the worst kind!) tries to take them away from him, he hires a beautiful but tough attorney (Gabrielle Union) to help him. Even money says they become romantically involved as they try to keep his family together.
Of Note: After having two huge box office hits, Tyler Perry leaves Madea’s dress in the closet for his third film
REVIEW

Analysis: Being a white guy for most of my life, I never heard of Tyler Perry until 2005 when his play Diary of a Mad Black Woman was turned into a movie. Little did I know at the time what a huge audience Perry had already built from his touring stageshows, many of which featured him dressed as the “guntotin’ granny” Madea. With that grassroots audience of fans, Perry’s first film was a huge surprise hit despite opening in less than 2,200 theatres. Perry decided to direct last year’s follow-up Madea’s Family Reunion himself, and that movie did even better, grossing $30 million its opening weekend, making it another instantly profitable movie for distributor Lionsgate.

Now, Perry is changing gears again, this time staying behind the camera and not getting into his own act by dressing up as Madea or other wacky characters. In some ways, it may be Perry’s attempt to crossover and be taken more seriously among mainstream moviegoers, since it’s not based on one of his plays, so it’s going to relying even more on the fact that his name is prominently featured in the title. Perry has found a lot of success from finding premises that appeal to African-American audiences and Daddy’s Little Girls is no different, with a story of a family trying to stay together, while adding a romantic angle that will appeal to Perry’s many female fans, especially on Valentine’s Day.

For this movie, he also has an ace in the hole in Gabrielle Union, a popular African-American actress who has starred in many popular romantic comedies over the years, and Daddy’s Little Girls is right up her alley. That said, most of her movies like Love and Basketball and Two Can Play that Game had a ceiling of $27 million, which is significantly lower than Perry’s last few films or ‘90s urban dramas like Waiting to Exhale. Though Perry doesn’t star in this one, he does have Idris Elba, best known from his role on HBO’s “The Wire,” which also does well with urban audiences and it also features Lou Gossett Jr.

There are a number of factors that might keep Daddy’s Little Girls from seeing the success of Perry’s last two films, the first being the lack of his popular character Madea, and the comedy that comes along with it. That’s fine, since the people who miss her will Eddie Murphy’s hit cross-dressing comedy Norbit, which should do well in its second weekend. Perry’s last few movies opened with no real competition, while Daddy’s Little Girls not only has to contend with Norbit, but it’s likely to lose a lot of guys to Ghst Rider over the weekend, after taking their girls/women to see this on Wednesday. That Wednesday opening may also take away from the weekend since Perry’s diehard fans will rush out to see the movie on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, and the rest of the weekend will depend on word-of-mouth from the earlier screenings. (Like Perry’s last few movies, they won’t have the benefit of reviews to let people know the movie’s opening.)

So far, Tyler Perry’s films haven’t been known for their staying power with Madea’s Family Reunion ending up with just over 2 times its opening weekend in total, and a terrible rating of 3.3 out of 10 on IMDb, compared to 5 out of 10 for Perry’s previous film. The first number shows that Perry’s fans rush out to see his movies but that they don’t get very much repeat or word-of-mouth business. Maybe Daddy’s Little Girls will change this, but it’s also possible that those who were dissatisfied with the last two movies won’t rush out to see this one.

COMPARISONS

Why I Should See It: At least you won’t have to see Perry hamming it up in a dress!
Why Not: Hmm… maybe that’s not such a good thing, especially with Eddie Murphy making so much money doing just that in Norbit.
Projections: $10 to 12 million on Weds and Thursday, another $15 to 17 million over the four-day weekend, ending up just under $50 million total.

And then opening on Friday…

BREACH (Universal)
Starring Chris Cooper, Ryan Phillippe, Laura Linney, Dennis Haysbert, Kathleen Quinlan, Gary Cole, Caroline Dhavernas, Bruce Davison, Mary Jo Deschanel, Gary Cole
Written and directed by Billy Ray (Shattered Glass, writer of Flightplan, Volcano, Hart’s War, Suspect Zero) from the screenplay written by Adam Mazer and William Rotko
Genre: Espionage, Thriller
Rated PG-13
Tagline: “Inspired by the true story of the greatest security breach in U.S. history”
Plot Summary: Eric O’Neill (Ryan Philippe), a young recruit into the FBI is selected to work with Robert Hanssen (Chris Cooper) in a new division, but O’Neill soon discovers that he’s been chosen for the position to keep an eye on Hanssen, who is suspected to be a dangerous double-agent mole planted in the agency.
Of Note: Billy Ray, the creator of the journalism drama Shattered Glass is back with a movie based on real-life drama within the FBI.

Analysis: Sadly, this is this weekend’s weak link in terms of box office, which is a shame since a movie about a real-life double agent within the FBI is a great movie premise and Billy Ray has proven himself to be a smart filmmaker with his debut Shattered Glass. His second movie as director is based on the true story of Robert Hanssen, an FBI agent who was arrested in 2001 for selling American secrets to Moscow, and it’s a much more high-profile film being produced by Universal Pictures.

To play the role of Hanssen, Billy Ray got Oscar-winner Chris Cooper, who received great acclaim after a long career when he won a supporting actor for Spike Jones’ quirky comedy Adaptation. He followed that with another acclaimed role in the Oscar-nominated Seabiscuit and roles in movies like Capote and Jarhead. Cooper has a good deal of experience with the political thriller having starred in both of the Bourne movies and Steven Gaghan’s 2005 thriller Syriana with Matt Damon. (Ironically, Matt Damon recently had his own spy thriller hit for Universal with the recent The Good Shepherd, and one can expect that they attached the trailer for Breach in front of that similar film.)

Although Breach is based on the story of Robert Hanssen, it’s told through the eyes of Ryan Phillippe’s character, the former Mr. Reese Witherspoon having made a successful return to the screen after taking a few years off to take care of the kids while the wife brought home the bacon. Phillippe had the makings of a successful young star after appearing in I Know What You Did Last Summer and Cruel Intentions, though he didn’t have as much luck with the thriller Anti-Trust opposite Tim Robbins. In 2005, Phillippe made a stunning return as part of the Oscar-winning cast of Paul Haggis’ Crash and he continued that relationship into Clint Eastwood’s highly anticipated WWII drama Flags of Our Fathers, which received mixed reactions and little box office success. This movie seems to continue his attempt to reach an older audience and be taken more seriously as an actor.

The two of them are joined by the always-busy Laura Linney, who generally appears in three to four movies every year, though her biggest movie to date, The Exorcism of Emily Rose, may have had as much or more to do with its horror-thriller premise than her starring role. Still, she’s a talented and well-respected actress who has been nominated two times for an Academy Award. Breach also stars Dennis Haysbert, best known for his role on the FOX drama “24,” making him another actor experienced in this type of movie.

Unfortunately, none of these actors really have proven themselves to be major box office draws, though the older moviegoers who’re looking for quality films beyond the Oscar fare, such a strong cast will certainly make them feel like this is a movie worth seeing. Essentially, this will be targeting guys over 30 and older moviegoers who may not be interested in the lighter offerings, though its low theatre count and last-minute marketing might hurt, even with the strong commercials that have been popping up. Either way, this doesn’t seem like the kind of movie that people will rush to see opening weekend, especially with movies that are getting a bigger push.

COMPARISONS

Why I Should See It: Great cast, intriguing story and talented filmmaker—should be a decent political thriller.
Why Not: This really isn’t the best weekend for a movie like this, and it seems like it’s being dumped by Universal.
Projections: $5 to 7 million over the four-day weekend; $18 million total.

BRIDGE TO TERABITHIA (Walt Disney)
Starring Josh Hutcherson, AnnaSophia Robb, Robert Patrick, Zooey Deschanel
Directed by Gabor Csupo (former “Simpsons” animator and the creator/writer/producer of “Rugrats” and “The Wild Thornberries”); Written by Jeff Stockwell (The Dangerous Lives of Altar Boys), David Paterson (Love, Ludlow)
Genre: Family, Adventure, Fantasy
Rated PG
Tagline: “Discover a place that will never leave you, and a friendship that will change you forever.”
Plot Summary: Always the outsider at his school, Jess Arons (Josh Hutcherson) wants to be the fastest kid at the school in hopes of being accepted, but when he’s beaten by the school’s new girl Leslie Burke (Anna-Sopha Robb), they become awkward friends, creating a secret kingdom called Terabithia that they can rule over without worrying about the other school kids.
Of Note: Katherine Paterson’s award-winning 1977 children’s book comes to the big screen courtesy of Walt Disney and Walden Media, who brought movies like Chronicles of Narnia to the masses.

Analysis: This may be the toughest movie of the weekend to predict, because on one hand, it’s the first strong live action kids movie since Ben Stiller’s Night at the Museum, which has been sitting comfortably in the Top 5 since opening over two months ago. On the other hand, the movie doesn’t look that great, so will parents take their kids to see it just to get them out of the house and because there’s nothing else to see, or will they just stay home?

The good news is that this is another collaboration between Disney Pictures and Walden Media who have collaborated on bringing many famous children’s books to the big screen, starting with Holes which did very well over Easter weekend back in 2003. That was followed by their version of Jules Verne’s Around the World in 80 Days starring Jackie Chan--a pretty big bomb--and Because of Winn-Dixie, also based on a popular book, which did decently over Presidents Day weekend in 2005. Their biggest movie to date is obviously their adaptation of C.S. Lewis’ The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, The Witch and The Wardrobe, which made over $65 million its opening weekend and went onto make nearly $300 million over the holidays.

Bridge to Terabithia isn’t nearly as well known as C.S. Lewis’ fantasy classic, though it was previously made into a 1985 TV movie, and Walden Media is hoping to use a similar formula for success, even hiring a former animator, that being Gabor Csupo, creator of “Rugrats”, to do his first live action film. It also stars two young actors who have done their fair share of family films based on popular books, that being Josh Hutcherson and Anna-Sophia Robb. Hutcherson played the older brother in Zathura and got into performance capture mode for Tom Hanks’ The Polar Express, while Robb appeared in Walden Media’s Because of Winn-Dixie and played one of the brats in Tim Burton’s Charlie and the Chocolate Factory. She also has the upcoming horror-thriller The Reaping opposite Hilary Swank coming up in April.

The film visual FX for Terabithia were designed by Weta Digital, who did The Lord of the Rings and The Chronicles of Narnia, though going by the commercials, they’re certainly not showing their best work, as they feature an ugly-looking giant tree creature and other fantasy creatures. Nothing in it looks nearly as impressive as anything in the recent fantasy film Eragon, a good litmus test for Terabithia since it was also based on a teen novel, though it’s doubtful kids today will be as familiar with Terabithia. (It’s no Charlotte’s Web or Narnia.) The movie might also not be exactly what it seems, being more of a teen relationship drama with elements of fantasy, and not the all-out fantasy that it’s being sold as, something that might disappoint the young audience who goes to see it.

Even though the movie doesn’t look that exciting, it’s going to benefit greatly from the lack of school on Monday and the lack of strong family films in theatres now that Ben Stiller’s Night at the Museum is likely to be losing theatres after two months in the Top 5. The success last year of Disney’s Snow Dogs... oh, I mean Eight Below… shows how a well-marketed family film can do well over this weekend and Bridge to Terabithia has far less competition for family audiences.

COMPARISONS

Why I Should See It: Looks like it could be another pleasant and innocent Disney film for the whole family.
Why Not: It also looks a bit too much like a bargain basement Chronicles of Narnia.
Projections: $16 to 18 million over the four-day weekend; $45 to 50 million total.

GHOST RIDER (Sony)
Starring Nicolas Cage, Eva Mendes, Wes Bentley, Sam Elliott, Donal Logue, Peter Fonda
Written and directed by Mark Steven Johnson (Daredevil)
Genre: Superhero, Action, Thriller
Rated PG-13
Tagline: “Hell is about to be unleashed!”
Plot Summary: Motorcycle stunt rider Johnny Blaze (Nicolas Cage) makes a deal with the devil to protect his father and childhood sweetheart Roxanne (Eva Mendes), but in exchange, he takes on a double-life turning into the flaming Ghost Rider at night to hunt down evil rogue demons.
Of Note: Mark Steven Johnson, the man responsible for Daredevil, takes on another third-string Marvel character with the flaming-skulled chopper-ridin’ Ghost Rider!
REVIEW (Coming Soon!)

Analysis: For the first comic-book based movie of what’s going to be a very full year, we have the first movie based on Marvel Comics’ Ghost Rider, a darker hero created during the early ‘70s by Roy Thomas, Mike Friedrich and Michael Ploog. Though the hell-spawned hero had a cult following during the ‘70s, particularly among musicians and drug users, and had a successful revival in the early ‘90s, the character is no Spider-Man, Superman or Batman. Let’s face it, a guy with a flaming skull is a bit of a marketing nightmare that you can’t exactly sell to kids with a clear conscience. Because of that, it never had a cartoon or toys, meaning that Ghost Rider will coming into the market much like Blade did over 9 years ago. It’s ironic, since the movie probably owes more to the three Blade movies, Guillermo del Toro’s Hellboy or 2005’s Constantine than it does to brighter mainstream superheroes like Spider-Man and Fantastic Four.

Like Constantine, the movie has to contend with the fact that it stars an actor who looks nothing like the character in the comics, since Johnny Blaze in the comics has long blonde hair, and actor Nicolas Cage has short dark hair (and not much of it, at that). Then again, Nicolas Cage already has a very strong career as an action star with a long string of hit action movies in the late ‘90s and a strong return to the genre with his 2004 holiday hit National Treasure. While Cage might not be taken very seriously among comic book fans and the younger teens won’t be that interested in seeing it 'cause of him, he does have his fans from action movies like The Rock and John Woo’s Face/Off and others that will certainly take this more seriously than they would have with a nobody.

Cage has a great supporting cast including Eva Mendes as his sweetheart Roxanne, Mendes of course having starred opposite Will Smith in his hit romantic comedy Hitch, and the movie also stars such veterans as Sam Elliot and even Peter Fonda in his first movie role in a very long time.

The movie is masterminded by Mark Steven Johnson, best known as the guy who brought Daredevil to the big screen and brought Ben Affleck and Jennifer Garner together (for better or worse). However you feel about that movie, it did make a lot money, a record $45 million over the four-day Presidents’ Day weekend, a record that was only barely beaten by Adam Sandler’s 50 First Dates a few years later. Ghost Rider has to contend with a lot more competition than Daredevil, particularly among women and African-American audiences who may have seen this if there weren’t other choices, and that’s likely to keep the movie from duplicating Daredevil's success. Some comic fans may also still be down on Johnson for his last comic movie Daredevil, which some felt didn’t deliver despite its success at the box office. (It has a 5.6 out of 10 on IMDb which isn’t great, but it was still a masterpiece compared to Elektra.)

There’s already a bit of skepticism considering how many times the movie has been delayed, presumably so that Johnson could perfect the effects needed to create the flaming character, and it will certainly pay off if the story and writing live up to the effects seen in the commercials and trailer. The delays have meant that the movie has made two appearances at the San Diego Comic-Con, which only can be seen as a good thing since that’s the film’s potential core audience.

Otherwise, the character really isn’t that well known among those who aren’t comic fans, having never had a cartoon or TV show, which means it’s relying on the same cool concept that got so many people into the character in the first place, the fact that he’s a flaming skeleton riding a cool motorcycle. In the last few months, Ghost Rider has been riding high on the Yahoo Buzz Index, which is a good sign that there’s a lot of people wanting to see the movie.

In a rather unpopular decision, Sony decided not to screen the movie for critics, probably because the studio knows they already have an audience for the movie and don’t want to hurt it by potentially getting bad reviews from cranky critics before it opens. It’s become a bit of a news story in a slow news week, since it’s the most expensive movie to not be screened, and there’s been a lot of griping on the internet about this decision and what that means. (Sony has invited some critics to Thursday night screenings, as well as opening day courtesy screenings, though most newspapers won't be able to run their reviews until Saturday.) It probably won’t have that much of an effect, since most of the people who’d go to see the movie i.e. comic fans won’t really care, because the release of this movie is a huge deal. It’s also a movie that’s likely to appeal to the male teen audience from 12 to 15 who’ll just think it looks cool and won’t be nearly as cynical as the 30-40 year old comic fans on the internet who have been the most vocal in their negativity. Since the movie has a PG-13 rating, those teens won’t have a problem catching the movie in theatres compared to movies like Blade and Constantine, which went for older guys with its R-rating. One can expect that most teens will pick this movie over the other four, although teen girls will have to be convinced away from the two romantic movies by the guys in their circle of friends.

COMPARISONS

Why I Should See It: It’s EFFIN’ GHOST RIDER!!! He rides a motorcycle and he has a flamin’ skull for a head!!!
Why Not: Because when he’s not Ghost Rider, he changes back into Nicolas Cage. Oy, vey.
Projections: $35 to 39 million over the four-day holiday weekend; $85 million total.

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OTHER LIMITED RELEASES:

This weekend is mostly about the foreign films…

THE 2006 ACADEMY AWARDS NOMINATED SHORT FILMS (Magnolia Pictures) ­ For a second year in a row, Magnolia and Shorts International compile all ten Oscar-nominated short films, both animated and live action, to be screened theatrically in major cities a week before the Academy Awards. Highlights include the Hungarian CGI short “Maestro”, the Pixar short “Lifted” (which will play in front of Ratatouille this summer), “The Little Matchgirl” from Disney and live action shorts from Denmark, Spain, Australia and the U.S. Mini-Review (Coming Soon!)

AVENUE MONTAIGNE (THINKFilm) ­ Danièle (Jet Lag) Thompson’s third comedy takes place in and around the Avenue Montaigne area of Paris where artists, musicians and actors congregate near the Champs-Élysées Theatre. It stars Cecile de France (High Tension) as an optimistic young waitress whose customers include a desperate soap actress looking for a serious film role, a young man trying to reconnect with his legendary artist father and a classic pianist who wants to leave that life behind. The French Oscar entry opens in New York and L.A. on Friday. Mini-Review (Coming Soon!)

BAMAKO (First Run Features) ­ Opening on Wednesday at New York’s Film Forum is this politically charged film from Abderrahmane Sissako (Moolade) which follows a public meeting in Bamako, the capitol city of Mali, where African people gather to complain about how the corporations have been destroying the country.

CLOSE TO HOME (IFC First Take) ­ Also opening on Weds down the street at the IFC Center is this Israeli drama from Vidi Bilu and Dalia Hager which follows the lives of young female Israeli soldiers, two of them in particular who are thrown together to check Arab ID cards on the streets of Jerusalem and end up bonding after surviving a bombing.

DAYS OF GLORY (INDIGENES) (The Weinstein Company) ­ The Oscar-nominated Algerian film from Rachid Bouchareb takes a look at the young North Africans who traveled to France to enlist in the WWII effort against Germany, despite being treated like outcasts and lesser soldiers by their peers.

GRBAVICA: THE LAND OF MY DREAMS (Strand Releasing) ­ From Sarajevo, comes this film from Jasmila Z¹banic´ about the female survivors of the country’s war including Esma, a single mother and her rebellious daughter Sara who live in the Grbavica internment camp in Sarajevo.

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Next week, the month of February ends with the thriller The Number 23 starring Jim Carrey and the Polish Brothers’ new film The Astronaut Farmer starring Billy Bob Thornton, both getting an able co-star in Virginia Madsen (Sideways). Also opening are the cop comedy Reno 911!: Miami and the horror film The Abandoned.

Copyright 2007 Edward Douglas


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