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THE WEEKEND PREDICTIONS: (final update 10.26.06)

TW	LW	Title	Weekend (in millions)	Change	# Of Theaters	Average	Week
1	New	Saw III	$31.3	N/A	3,167	$9,883	1
2	2	The Departed	$9.3	-32%	2,951	$3,151	4
3	1	The Prestige	$8.9	-39%	2,281	$3,902	2
4	3	Flags of Our Fathers	$7.0	-32%	2,190	$3,196	2
5	5	Open Season	$5.7	-30%	3,050	$1,863	5
6	4	Flicka	$5.1	-35%	2,877	$1,738	2
7	New	Catch a Fire	$4.6	N/A	1,305	$3,525	1
8	7	Man of the Year	$4.5	-35%	2,626	$1,714	3
9	6	The Grudge 2	$3.4	-55%	3,063	$1,110	3
10	8	Marie Antoinette	$3.1	-42%	859	$3,609	2
			Est. Weekend Total $82.70	Est. Avg. Drop-Off -38%		Est. Average PTA $3,063

If it’s the weekend before Halloween than it must be time for Lionsgate to make a little more money to fund their 2007 releases, which means releasing the third Saw movie, and it’s likely to make back its budget on Friday night just like the last two movies, though it might have already achieved critical mass in terms of audience, especially with other recent sequels to hit horror films losing audience from their debuts.

Phillip Noyce (Rabbit Proof Fence, The Quiet American) tackles South Africa in the form of Catch a Fire, starring Derek Luke as a hard-working family man who comes into conflict with a ruthless white police officer played by Tim Robbins. Released by Focus Features into a moderate release, it might have trouble finding an audience by not going the more traditional limited release and expanding based on word-of-mouth. Expect it to open in the bottom half of the Top 10 unless it’s able to draw urban audiences away from Saw III.

Ryan (“Nip/Tuck”) Murphy’s debut Running with Scissors, based on Augusten Burroughs’ memoir, will expand nationwide into over 600 theatres, and though it has an impressive cast including Annette Bening and Brian Cox, it’s likely to wind up just outside the Top 10 with under $3 million.

Last year, Saw II reigned over the box office with a $31.7 million opening, dwarfing the other three new releases including another sequel, The Legend of Zorro, starring Antonio Banderas and Catherine Zeta-Jones, which made less than half that amount its opening weekend. Meryl Streep and Nicolas Cage starred in unconventional comedies Prime and The Weather Man, neither which did particularly well ($6.4 and $4.2 million opening respectively), continuing the October trend. Even so, the two sequels helped the top 10 gross $82.6 million, a significant increase from the previous two weeks, though it’s likely this weekend will be able to surpass it.

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THE CHOSEN ONE:

COCAINE COWBOYS (Magnolia Pictures)
Starring Jon Roberts, Mickey Munday
Written and directed by Billy Corben (Raw Deal: A Question of Consent)
Genre: Documentary
Rated R
Tagline: “The incredible true story behind Scarface and Miami Vice”
Plot Summary: This documentary looks at the rise and violent fall of the cocaine scene in Miami, Florida during the late ‘70s and early ‘80s as told by three of the major players involved in both the trafficking and the violent murders that surrounded it.
Of Note: Billy Corben has collected an amazing array of pictures and archive footage to embellish the fascinating interviews which takes one of the most in-depth look at Miami of the late ‘70s and early ‘80s and how the cocaine trade nearly destroyed the city but ultimately helped it to rebuild. It’s one of the best documentaries this year.
Comparisons: Scarface, Blow, The Kid Stays in the Picture, The Lords of Dogtown
INTERVIEW (with Billy Corben and producer Alfred Spellman)

Yes, we’re back to the docs this week, but maybe that’s because they’re offering the best overall quality for the buck these days, and this is an odd case, because I wouldn’t think that a movie about drugs and violence would be such a riveting experience, but that is indeed what Billy Corben’s second movie is as it draws you in with its stories from former cocaine runners Jon Roberts and Mickey Munday, explaining how they were able to get the drug into the country from Columbia and turn it into a cash cow. The early demand for cocaine and the competing drug cartels out of Columbia ultimately turned violent with much of that violence taking place in Miami at the behest of the “Godmother”, Griselda Blanco, and we learn about the hundreds of killings she ordered from her top enforcer, Jorge “Rivi” Ayala. These stories are riveting and more than once while watching the movie, I was exclaiming “Holy SH*T!” because I couldn’t believe what I was hearing or seeing, and it’s an amazing technical achievement to fit so much information into what is a relatively short doc of under 2 hours. If that weren’t enough reason to see this, Corben and producer Alfred Spellman managed to get Jan Hammer, the composer for “Miami Vice,” a show inspired by the efforts of Miami’s Centac police force to take down the drug trade, to provide the soundtrack for this amazing movie.

Cocaine Cowboys opens in New York, Miami and other Southern Florida cities on Friday.

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CATCH A FIRE (Focus Features)
Starring Tim Robbins, Derek Luke, Bonnie Henna
Directed by Phillip Noyce (Clear and Present Danger, The Quiet American, Rabbit Proof Fence); Written by Shawn Slovo
Genre: Drama, Thriller
Rated PG-13
Tagline: “The spark that ignites us, united us.”
Plot Summary: Patrick Chamusso (Derek Luke) was a loving husband and family man, living and working under Apartheid in South Africa, when he was imprisoned and tortured by the head of the police anti-terrorist unit (Tim Robbins) for a crime he didn’t commit. When he is let free, his family has fallen apart, forcing Patrick to turn to an activist organization to fight against the country’s white oppressors.
Of Note: Phillip Noyce, who has helmed so many great political thrillers, takes on South Africa with two strong actors, at least one of them (Derek Luke) who has been getting awards buzz for his real-life role as Patrick Chamusso.
Pros: Besides being an inspirational choice of a black man overcoming the odds, it also has Tim Robbins returning to the role of the bad guy that he did so well in Anti-Trust and Arlington Road. This should have strong appeal towards older black audiences, who might not be so interested in Saw III. As much as I hate to say it, this could be one of the first choices for younger teens that want to buy tickets to the movies and then sneak into Saw III.
Cons: Neither Derek Luke nor Tim Robbins have really carried a film without having a better known director involved. The premise of South Africa might be a bit of a turn-off to younger audiences, much like WWII, since most of them may be too young to even remember the situation of Apartheid in South Africa.
Mini-Review: This well-executed South African drama is a solid follow-up to Noyce's The Quiet American, looking at the country during the height of Apartheid through the eyes of a man pushed to the limit. It's interesting to watch Derek Luke's Patrick Chamusso going through his day-to-day life as family man, worker and soccer coach, but things really pick up and start to get good in the second act, when he starts training as part of the military group, the ANC. Derek Luke is quite convincing as Chamusso and Tim Robbins makes the perfect foil, though the film leaves you with a lot of questions, such as why they decided to humanize Robbins' character by showing his home life and why the people of South Africa consider Chamusso to be a hero when he seems like little more than a glorified terrorist (and a failed one at that) with a bit of heart. It's mixed message and emotions like that which tend to keep this inspirtational movie from really delivering the way it should, but when it comes down to it, the movie offers some great action scenes and three strong performances, including an impressive Western debut by Bonnie Henna as Patrick's wife. There certainly have been many poorer and less relevant films set in South Africa in recent years. Rating: 8/10

Comparisons:

Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
The Quiet American	2/14/03	157	$1.69	$1.24	$7,881	$12.99
The Bone Collector	11/5/99	2,590		$16.71	$6,452	$66.49
Clear and Present Danger	8/5/94	2,378		$20.35	$12,115	$122.01
Patriot Games	6/5/92	2,366		$18.51	$7,823	$82.88
Dead Calm	4/7/89	959		$2.46	$2,565	$7.03
Friday Night Lights	10/8/04	2,667		$20.27	$7,600	$61.19
Biker Boyz	1/31/03	1,766		$10.11	$5,723	$21.91
Antwone Fisher	1/10/03	1,007	$6.65	$3.78	$3,757	$21.08
Mystic River	10/17/03	1,467	$3.09	$10.45	$7,121	$90.14
The Truth About Charlie	10/25/02	753		$2.27	$3,015	$5.29
Anti-Trust	1/12/01	2,432		$4.78	$1,965	$10.97
Arlington Road	7/9/99	1,631		$7.52	$4,611	$24.36
The Constant Gardener	9/2/05	1,346	$1.72	$10.96	$8,144	$31.25
Hotel Rwanda	12/24/04	319	$4.29	$1.33	$4,158	$23.52

Why I Should See It: It’s an amazing snapshot of South Africa at the height of Apartheid from one of the top political thriller directors.
Why Not: You’re not a fan of intelligent films about world affairs.
Projections: $4 to 5 million opening; $18 million total.

SAW III (Lionsgate)
Starring Tobin Bell, Shawnee Smith, Angus MacFadyen, Bahar Soomekh, Dina Meyer, Donny Wahlberg
Directed by Darren Lynn Bousman (Saw II, Identity Lost, Butterfly Dreams); Written by Leigh Whannell (Saw, Saw II)
Genre: Horror, Thriller
Rated R
Tagline: “Sometimes rules are meant to be broken…”
Plot Summary: As the man known as Jigsaw (Tobin Bell) lies on his death bed, his protégé Amanda (Shawnee Smith) recruits a doctor to try to keep him alive, while the distraught father of a boy killed in a car accident (Angus MacFayden) is given a chance to run a gauntlet of traps in order to get revenge for those responsible.
Of Note: The threequel to the first true horror sensation of the 21^st Century promises a lot more gore, as well as a few answers to pressing questions.
Pros: The fact that this is written by Leigh Whannell, co-creator of the series and writer of the two previous movies, and directed by the same director as the last movie already gives this movie an advantage over other threequels. This will focus more on Jigsaw and his new liege Amanda, which should be of great interest to anyone who has followed the story thus far. The last movie is likely to have picked up a lot of DVD business, and the follow-up is getting an even wider release. You have to figure that some of the teens who were into the first movie two years ago might be old enough to get into an R-rated movie by themselves now.
Cons: The last movie is likely to have lost some of the movie’s older and female audience, as it got away from psychological thrills and more towards straight gore, and the threequel continues that tradition. There are many movies for older audiences in theatres, and they’ll likely pick one of them instead. Even though it hasn’t been a problem for previous movies, the lack of star power might keep it from expanding its audience beyond the fans it already has. In the last month, two other franchise sequels failed to meet the financial expectations set by their predecessors.
REVIEW

Comparisons:

Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Saw II	10/28/05	2,949	$31.73	$10,758	$87.03
Saw	10/29/04	2,315	$18.28	$7,895	$55.15
Scream 3	2/4/00	3,465	$34.71	$10,017	$88.36
Scream 2	12/12/97	2,663	$33.00	$12,392	$101.36
Scream	12/20/96	1,413	$6.35	$4,494	$103.03

Why I Should See It: Well, you saw the other two. Why quit now?
Why Not: How much blood and gore can one person possibly take?
Projections: $30 to 32 million opening; $80 million total

BABEL (Paramount Vantage)
Starring Brad Pitt, Cate Blanchett, Gael Garcia Bernal, Rinko Kikuchi, Adriana Barraza, Koji Yakusho, Michael Pena, Clifton Collins Jr., Elle Fanning
Directed by Alejandro González Iñárritu (Amores Perros, 21 Grams); Written by Guillermo Ariaga (21 Grams, Amores Perros, The Three Burials of Melquiades Estrada)
Genre: Drama, Thriller
Rated R
Plot Summary: Four interlocked stories take place across the world: two young boys from Morocco are given a rifle by their father to defend their goats from the jackals. Instead, they use it to take potshots at a tourist bus hitting a woman (Cate Blanchett), whose husband (Brad Pitt) desperately tries to get her medical aid. Meanwhile, their two kids back in California are being cared for by their Mexican maid (Adriana Barraza) who brings them across the border for a wedding only to get stranded there. The last story involves a deaf Japanese girl (Rinko Kikuchi) trying to find love after the suicide death of her mother.
Of Note: This is the third collaboration by Alejandro Inarritu and Guillermo Ariaga, whose first movie Amorres Perros represented Mexico in the 2000 Oscars, and it’s headlined (kind of) by performances from actors Brad Pitt and Cate Blanchett
Pros: Really, the biggest thing going for the movie are the two name stars, Brad Pitt in his first movie since Mr. & Mrs. Smith and Cate Blanchett, who is having a great year between this and her upcoming movies. Even beyond that, it’s a really strong cast including Gael Garcia Bernal, who made his debut in Amores Perros, and a couple of new names to American audiences, Rinko Kikuchi and Adriana Barraza, who actually played Gael’s mother in Amores. The movie is already getting Oscar buzz, and is likely to get a number of nominations. There’s a definite interest in this kind of movie as seen by the success of Crash, Syriana and Steven Soderbergh’s Traffic.
Cons: American audiences might not be able to connect with the characters or situations so much, and some might be bothered by the way the movie jumps between the stories. The movie also isn’t so much about the breakdown in language and communication as you might assume from the deceptive title and trailer.
Comparisons: Traffic, Syriana, Crash, 21 Grams, Veronica Guerrin, Spy Game
Why I Should See It: Iñarritu and Ariaga have created two of the most uniquely memorable films of the last few years and Babel is no exception.
Why Not: There is absolutely no reason why you shouldn’t see this movie. Oh, unless of course you’re going to see Saw III, as if that needs any more money this weekend.
Note: Babel opens in New York and L.A. on Friday with plans to open it wide on November 10.
REVIEW

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OTHER LIMITED RELEASES:

20 CENTIMETERS (TLA Releasing) ­ Taking a cue from Almodovar, Hedwig and Transamerica, Ramón Salazar’s musical comedy is about a transsexual (Mónica Cervera) trying to rid “herself” of the eight inches keeping her from being a real woman. Opens at New York’s Quad Cinemas.
ABSOLUTE WILSON (New Yorker Films) - Katharina Otto-Bernstein’s documentary is a biography about the life of the multi-talented artist Robert Wilson (“Einstein on the Beach”) who grew up with learning disabilities, the son of Texas Fundamentalists, to go onto become a sensation in the art and theatre worlds. Opens at the Lincoln Plaza Cinemas in New York.
THE BRIDGE (First Stripe Productions) ­ For all of 2004, filmmaker Eric Steel trained his camera at San Francisco’s Golden Gate Bridge, a top choice for many suicidal people to end their lives, combining this footage with families of those who ended their lives as well as those who made failed attempts in order to delve deep into the mindset of those wanting to kill themselves. Select cities including L.A. and New York.
Mini-Review: Eric Steel's amazing footage of the Golden Gate Bridge, including a number of actual suicide jumps, is quite eerie and haunting, but it's the interviews that keep it interesting, as you learn from loved ones and acquaintances what was going through their minds before they decided to end their lives in such a dramatic fashion. Of the most interest is the interview with a rare survivor who explains in detail what went through his mind as he fell to what would usually have been certain death. It all makes for a rather morbid and depressing exercise though, particularly one man's story, which is stretched out over the course of the movie. By the third or fourth time you see him hanging around the rail, you're ready to yell "Go ahead and jump already!" at the screen, and it's strange to have a movie make you think that way. Rating: 7.5/10
CLIMATES (Zeitgeist Films) ­ Turkish filmmaker Nuri Bilge Ceylan (Distant) and his real-life wife Ebru play a couple who break up while on holiday, sending each of them in separate directions, only to reunite months later under different circumstances. Mini-Review: Granted, it's pretty amazing what Ceylan's camera is able to capture in this gorgeously shot relationship drama which puts him in the bad guy role and his wife Ebru in the role of the woman he mistreated. She's quite wonderful, but the fact that Ceylan's character is such a morally reprehensible asshole makes it hard to really care much what happens to him after he breaks up with her, and there really isn't much of a story or script to keep you interested beyond the beautiful visuals. Rating: 6/10
CONVERSATIONS WITH GOD (Samuel Goldwyn Pictures) ­ This film tells the true story of bestselling author Neale Donald Walsch (Henry Czerny), adapted from his own books of how he got out of from the lowest point in his life by getting spiritual advice from God. New York and L.A.
DEATH OF A PRESIDENT (Newmarket) ­ Gabriel‘s fictitious documentary about what might happen if President Bush were to be assassinated debuted at a prominent recent film festival amid controversy, as it takes a very serious look at what the outcome and repercussions might be when Bush is killed during a activist demonstration in 2007. REVIEW
EXIT: THE RIGHT TO DIE (First Run/Icarus Films) ­ Fernand Melgar’s documentary about the group Exit who facilitate assisted suicides, which are legal in its home country of Switzerland. Opens at New York’s Film Forum on Wednesday.
ROMEO & JULIET: SEALED WITH A KISS (Indican) ­ Former Disney animator Phil Nibberlink fully automated this G-rated family fantasy tale about two seals from warring families who fall in love, based of course on the great Bard’s tale of love and tragedy. New York, L.A. and other select cities.
SHUT UP & SING (The Weinstein Co.) ­ Filmmakers Barbara Kopple (Harlan County, USA) and Cecilia Peck take a look at country superstars The Dixie Chicks during 2003, their most turbulent year, as they find themselves being attacked by their own fans for comments made about President Bush, and two years later, need to reinvent themselves for a new audience. Opens in select cities. Mini-Review: Way too much of a big deal was made about Dixie Chicks singer Natalie Maines' potshot at President Bush in 2003, and it culminates in this behind-the-scenes doc which bounces back from 2003, when the backlash was happening, to 2005, when the band is trying to recover and redefine themselves for a new audience. Though the movie often gets sidetracked into the recording of the band's album, the candid interviews and fly-on-the-wall documentation of private business meetings to figure out how to handle their career implosion makes this a fascinating film. Far too often, Maines comes across more like the loud-mouthed ditz she's accused of being, rather than someone who really thinks before they open their mouth, so I'm not sure this movie does much for their case. Rating: 8/10

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Next week, welcome to November, the official start of the holiday season and who better to kick it off than the odd couple of Tim Allen in The Santa Clause 3: The Escape Clause and Borat? Also, the first CG-animated collaboration from Aardman and DreamWorks Studios, Flushed Away.