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THE WEEKEND PREDICTIONS: (final update 11.2.06)

TW	LW	Title	Weekend (in millions)	Change	# Of Theaters	Average	Week
1	New	The Santa Clause 3	$26.7	N/A	3,458	$7,721	1
2	New	Flushed Away	$24.2	N/A	3,707	$6,528	1
3	1	Saw III	$15.1	-55%	3,167	$4,768	2
4	New	Borat	$10.1	N/A	837	$11,947	1
5	2	The Departed	$6.9	-30%	2,785	$2,478	5
6	3	The Prestige	$6.1	-36%	2,305	$2,603	3
7	4	Flags of our Fathers	$4.0	-37%	2,375	$1,684	3
8	5	Open Season	$2.9	-50%	2,258	$1,137	6
9	7	Man of the Year	$2.7	-42%	2,388	$1,131	4
10	6	Flicka	$2.6	-45%	2,314	$1,124	3
			Est. Weekend Total $101.20	Est. Avg. Drop-Off -42%		Est. Average PTA $3,724

November kicks off with the battle of the family films as Disney and DreamWorks square off with a threequel to the popular family holiday comedy taking on a new computer-animated film. The third movie to star Tim Allen as the unwitting St. Nick, The Santa Clause 3: The Escape Clause, this time adding Martin Short as Santa’s rival Jack Frost, faces Flushed Away, the first full-on collaboration between Aardman Studios (Wallace and Gromit) and DreamWorks Animation, a talking animals adventure-comedy with a British accent featuring the voices of Hugh Jackman, Kate Winslet and Ian McKellen. DreamWorks might win out on Friday for its originality which will help bring in older audiences, but Disney will ultimately win the weekend due to familiarity with the character and the G-rating, which will help in more parents with young kids. Both movies should benefit from there being a new family film since Sony’s Open Season opened six weeks ago, but they’ll be splitting up all of that business so neither will do as well this weekend as they might have otherwise.

Then there’s the case of which movie younger teenagers will buy tickets for in order to sneak into 20^th Century Fox’s Borat (a movie with a ridiculously long title, edited here for sanity). Sacha Baron Cohen’s outrageous character from “The Ali G Show” comes to the big screen in a moderate release of 800 theatres with as much or more internet buzz than Snakes on a Plane, which might not necessarily be a good thing, but demand should be high enough to get it into the Top 5 before it expands into 2,200 theatres next weekend.

Last year, Disney’s animated comedy Chicken Little took on Sam (American Beauty) Mendes’ war drama Jarhead with Jake Gyllenhaal and Jamie Foxx, and though the former made $40 million, the latter wound up with a respectable $27.7 million itself. With George Clooney’s Good Night, and Good Luck expanding nationwide, the box office ended up with $115 million for the Top 10, which may be hard for this weekend to beat unless one of the family films or Borat really breaks out big time.

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THE CHOSEN ONE:

VOLVER (Sony Classics)
Starring Yohana Cobo, Penélope Cruz, Carmen Maura, Lola Dueñas, Blanca Portillo
Written and directed by Pedro Almodóvar (All About My Mother, Tie Me Up! Tie Me Down!, Bad Education, Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown, Talk to Her.
Genre: Drama, Comedy, Thriller
Rated R
Plot Summary: Raimonda (Penélope Cruz) has to cover-up for her teen daughter (Yohana Cobo), when she kills her lecherous stepfather after he makes a pass at her. Meanwhile her sister has discovered their dead mother (Carmen Maura) is still alive but realizes that she has to keep it a secret from her high-strung sister.
Of Note: Spain’s finest filmmaker Pedro Almodóvar’s 17^th film, which reunites him with two of his previous starlets, Penélope Cruz and Carmen Maura.
Comparisons: Other Almodóvar films, as well as classic films from the ‘50s and ‘60s that range from Alfred Hitchcock to Douglas Sirk, Far from Heaven
INTERVIEW (with Penélope Cruz)
REVIEW

The genius of Almodóvar is on full display in his latest movie, coming hot on the heels of the two-month Viva Pedro! traveling film festival, which has done a good job reminding everyone of the originality and inventiveness of this Spanish master of cinema. After the male-dominated thriller Bad Education, Almodóvar returns to the women he loves to focus on in his films, reuniting with Penélope Cruz, the star of his 1999 hit All About My Mother, and Carmen Maura from Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown, to tell an off-beat story that’s equal parts thriller and comedy.

Volver is just as oddly original as Almodóvar’s previous films, but it’s also surprisingly accessible in the sense that most people should be able to watch this without having to worry about the sexual or transgender shocks Almodóvar is famous for. (Okay, there’s a bit of incest that might creep people out, but there are no transvestites and none of the homoeroticism from his previous film.) It’s also a great role for Cruz, who gives her finest performance ever captured on film, and the rest of Pedro’s cast does a great job making his dialogue heavy thriller enjoyable and entertaining from beginning to end. It really is a very different animal than everything else out there, including Almodóvar’s previous films, so hopefully, it will overcome its language and culture barrier to find an audience.

Why I Should See It: Almodóvar is a cinematic master and Volver may be his most accessible offering to date with a cast of talented women including two former collaborators from his best known works.
Why Not: Because you don’t like reading sub-titles.

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BORAT (20^th Century Fox)
Starring Sacha Baron Cohen, Ken Davitian, Pamela Anderson
Directed by Larry Charles (Masked and Anonymous); Written by Sacha Baron Cohen, Anthony Hines, Peter Baynham, Dan Mazer
Genre: “Comedy”
Rated R
Tagline: “Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan” (Actually, it’s part of the title but it’s so ridiculously long that I refuse to include it.)
Plot Summary: Kazakhstan journalist Borat Sagdiyv (Sacha Baron Cohen) comes to America on assignment to document the “world’s greatest country” for his newsstation, but once there, he falls in love with Pamela Anderson after seeing her on television and begins a cross-country journey with his producer Azamat (Ken Davitian) to make her his wife.
Of Note: British comic Sacha Baron Cohen brings the acclaimed Borat character from his cult HBO show “Da Ali G Show” to theatres in a movie directed by Larry Charles, long-time writer of “Seinfeld” and director of Larry David’s “Curb Your Enthusiasm,” another show about a Jew making fun of his own people.
Pros: Borat has one of the most intense internet buzz campaigns—yes, even more than Snakes on a Plane—as he’s played a large part in the growth of MySpace as a place to promote movies. (Maybe that’s why Fox bought it.) Fox has been previewing the movie extensively for the last few months at various festivals and in special screenings via said MySpace, and for the most part, critics have been raving about it and positive word-of-mouth is very high with many claiming Borat to be the “funniest movie ever.” The character has a certain subversive quality that appeals to teens and older males, similar to “South Park” and “Jackass” which contributed to the success of their respective movies. Cohen has been finding more fans in the States thanks to his recent appearance in Will Ferrell’s comedy hit Talladega Nights and with a memorable animated character in last year’s Madagascar. On top of that, “Borat” has been pulling a lot of outlandish high profile stunts in recent months that have made their way onto the news, raising awareness of his schtick among non-fans. Protests from the Anti-Defamation League about the character’s anti-Semitism and the leader of Kazakhstan about Borat’s M.O. has stirred up more controversy that has gotten even more people to notice the movie than they might have otherwise, so a lot of curious “bystanders” may be checking it out this weekend, especially with the only other choices being family and kids’ films.
Cons: The movie is based on a TV show character, and as we’ve seen far too many times, convincing people to pay to see something they can see for free on TV is sometimes difficult, especially when they’re doing the exact same thing. (The Jackass movies are a rare exception.) Despite the popularity of the HBO show, Cohen’s last movie Ali G’s In Da House went straight to DVD in this country, but that was because he was doing something different than his normal man-on-the-street routine. Borat’s humor is an acquired taste, and Borat seems to be preaching to the converted. There’s a large portion of the population, for instance women, who won’t even be interested in the movie from the trailer and that could hurt its long-term success. Borat’s humor might not play well outside of big cities and college towns, which may be why FOX cut its release down to 800 theatres opening weekend in hopes of it doing well enough to generate word-of-mouth before its expansion. The movie has the danger of being like Serenity and Snakes on a Plane, movies which vocal fans went all out to push the movie, but really, it only has a small online cult audience with little awareness outside of those circles. In the last few months, Fox has held so many preview and promotional screenings for Borat that many of Borat’s diehard fans may have already seen the movie for free, so why would they pay to see it again?

Comparisons:

Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Talladega Nights	8/4/06	3,803		$47.04	$12,370	$148.21
Madagascar	5/27/05	4,131		$61.01	$14,769	$193.14
Jackass: Number Two	9/22/06	3,059		$29.00	$9,481	$71.07
Dave Chappelle's Block Party	3/3/06	1,200		$6.21	$5,179	$11.69
Team America: World Police	10/15/04	2,539		$12.12	$4,774	$32.77
Jackass: The Movie	10/25/02	2,509		$22.76	$9,072	$64.27
Martin Lawrence Live: Runteldat	8/2/02	752		$7.37	$9,806	$19.18
Freddy Got Fingered	4/20/01	2,271		$7.10	$3,126	$14.21
South Park: Bigger, Longer, Uncut	7/2/99	2,128	$8.30	$11.33	$5,324	$52.01
Bean	11/7/97	1,948	$7.01	$12.73	$6,535	$45.31
Fahrenheit 9/11	6/25/04	868	$0.16	$23.92	$27,558	$118.56

Why I Should See It: You’re a fan of Cohen or his outlandish character from “The Ali G Show.”
Why Not: I can post a few dozen reasons here and get tons of hate mail or you can just read my REVIEW for a few thoughts on the matter.
Projections: $8 to 10 million opening; $45 million total.

FLUSHED AWAY (DreamWorks)
Starring (voices of) Hugh Jackman, Kate Winslet, Ian McKellen, Andy Serkis, Bill Nighy, Shane Richie, Jean Reno
Directed by Sam Fell (the animated shorts Chump and Pop) David Bowers (DreamWorks animator and storyboard artist); Written by Sam Fell, Peter Lord (writer/director of Chicken Run)
Genre: Animated, Family, Comedy, Adventure
Rated PG
Tagline: “Plumbing Soon”
Plot Summary: Roddy St. James (voiced by Hugh Jackman) is a pet mouse living in a posh London household, who is flushed down the toilet by an unwanted visitor, an uncouth sewer rat named Sid (Shane Richie) who wants to Roddy’s posh lifestyle for himself. In the sewer, Roddy discovers an entire world of rats, and he enlists the help of Rita (Kate Winslet) to get him home on her boat, “The Jammy Dodger.” Instead, they wind up getting on the bad side of The Toad (Ian McKellan) and his henchmen.
Of Note: Aardman Studios, the British animators behind Claymation classics like Wallace and Gromit and the 2000 hit Chicken Run join with the animators of DreamWorks to create their first computer-animated family film, one that shares many of their sensibilities.
Pros: DreamWorks Animation has a great track record for animated films, second only to Disney and Pixar Studios, but they certainly have made a name for themselves with their distinctive style and sense of humor, something which culminated with the $400 million take for Shrek 2 and other hits like Shark Tale and Madagascar. Aardman Studios had a hit in 2000 with Chicken Run, and they’ve consistently won Academy Awards with their “Wallace and Gromit” cartoons, including the full-length feature film Curse of the Were-Rabbit last fall. DreamWorks has become known for putting together talented voice casts, and Flushed Away is no exception, having the likes of Hugh Jackman—his second movie of the fall and first of two animated films where you can hear his voice—Ian Mckellen, Kate Winslet, Andy Serkis and Bill Nighy, all of whom have fans among older moviegoers. On top of that, kids tend to love computer animated films, particularly ones with funny characters or talking animals, and the movie’s bathroom humor, including its title, should be appealing.
Cons: Like Wallace and Gromit and the Disney/Vanguard collaboration Valiant, this movie may be a bit too British for American audiences, especially kids, and it doesn’t have the namebrand value of a Shrek or even an Over the Hedge, which was based on a popular comic strip. Computer animation has taken a bit of a nosedive this year, as more and more movies are being made and audiences have started to lose interest in the genre. (Only two of the nearly dozen computer-animated movies released this year crossed the $200 million mark.) On top of the potential competition for family audiences this weekend from Santa Clause 3, Flushed Away is going to have to contend with Warner Bros’ animated comedy Happy Feet coming out in just two short weeks, which is likely to steal a lot of its thunder. (Penguins win out over mice/rats in a game of talking animal poker.)
Mini-Review: What makes this computer-animated film stand out from the rest of the pack is that it ably mixes the sensibilities of DreamWorks Animation with that of Aardman Studios to create a fast-paced comedy likely to appeal to fans of both camps.The original story is pretty clever, but it's the talented British voice cast including the always great Ian McKellan, Bill Nighy and Andy Serkis that makes the movie so special, and there's plenty of references and jokes that will keep the parents entertained while the kids enjoy the more physical humor. Sure, it might be "too British" for Middle America and some grown-ups might groan at the amount of expected potty humor, but overall, it's the type of family movie that really does offer something for the whole family. Rating: 8/10

Comparisons:

Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Open Season	9/29/06	3,833	$23.62	$6,163	$77.00
Monster House	7/21/06	3,533	$22.22	$6,253	$73.66
Wallace & Gromit: The Curse of the Were-Rabbit	10/7/05	3,645	$16.03	$4,397	$56.07
Chicken Run	6/23/00	2,491	$17.11	$6,869	$106.79
Over the Hedge	5/19/06	4,059	$38.46	$9,475	$154.98
Madagascar	5/27/05	4,131	$61.01	$14,769	$193.14
Shark Tale	10/1/04	4,016	$47.60	$11,854	$160.76
Chicken Little	11/4/05	3,654	$40.05	$10,961	$135.36

Why I Should See It: DreamWorks and Aardman Studios both have great reputations for their animated films and this looks like it has the best of both worlds—smart humor for adults and potty humor for the kids—with a great voice cast.
Why Not: Haven’t there been enough computer-animated movies for one year already?
Projections: $23 to 25 million opening; $95 million total.

THE SANTA CLAUSE 3: THE ESCAPE CLAUSE (Disney)
Starring Tim Allen, Martin Short, Elizabeth Mitchell, Judge Reinhold, Wendy Crewson, Eric Lloyd, Spencer Breslin, Liliana Mumy, Alan Arkin
Directed by Michael Lembeck (The Santa Clause 2, Connie and Carla); Written by Ed Decter and John J. Strauss (The Santa Clause 2, The Lizzie McGuire Movie, Rebound, The Wild),
Genre: Comedy, Family, Holiday
Rated G
Tagline: “His time at the North Pole is about to go South.”
Plot Summary: Scott Calvin (Tim Allen) the ersatz Santa finds himself with a bit of competition in the form of Jack Frost (Martin Short), who wants to take over as the symbol of Christmas.
Of Note: The team that brought the Disney holiday family hit The Santa Clause 2 reunites for a sequel that teams Tim Allen’s popular character with a new character, Jack Frost, played by the lovable Martin Short.
Pros: It’s only been four years since the last movie, as opposed to the eight between the original movie and its sequel. Tim Allen’s career has been all over the map as of late, but he has the help of a new character played by Martin Short, Allen’s co-star in Jungle 2 Jungle, to entertain the kids. Because of its holiday theme, The Santa Clause 3 is likely to bring in more business as Christmas gets closer, particularly over the Thanksgiving holiday weekend. It helped Will Ferrell’s Elf and the animated film The Polar Express, both which went onto huge success. The film’s G-rating makes it the kind of movie that whole families can go see together, and it will be a first choice for parents with the youngest of kids.
Cons: Family sequels rarely do as well as the original movies, maybe because kids grow up in between movies and lose interest; Santa Clause 2 was a bit of a fluke in that sense, because it opened much higher than the first movie, effectively reinvigorating Allen’s career. Neither Allen nor Short’s career are in particularly good shape right now, Allen coming off two dogs (one quite literal) and Short having been focusing on doing theatre, providing his voice for animation and appearing as talk show host Jimminy Glick. Unlike Santa Clause 2, the threequel actually has competition for the family market from DreamWorks’ latest animated film Flushed Away, which will likely cut into its potential business. Since Santa Clause 3 will probably target smaller children, who pay lower prices for tickets, it’s likely to make less even if attendance is higher.

Comparisons:

Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
The Santa Clause 2	11/1/02	3,350		$29.01	$8,659	$139.14
The Santa Clause	11/11/94	2,183		$19.32	$8,850	$144.83
Zoom	8/11/06	2,501		$4.51	$1,803	$11.63
The Shaggy Dog	3/10/06	3,501		$16.31	$4,659	$61.11
Christmas with the Kranks	11/26/04	3,393	$9.25	$21.57	$6,357	$73.70
Joe Somebody	12/21/01	2,506		$3.55	$1,418	$22.74
Jungle 2 Jungle	3/7/97	2,316		$12.81	$5,531	$59.93
The Polar Express	11/12/04	3,650	$7.31	$23.32	$6,390	$162.75
Elf	11/7/03	3,337		$31.11	$9,324	$172.70
Jack Frost	12/11/98	2,152		$7.10	$3,299	$34.56

Why I Should See It: The holidays are right around the corner and you can’t beat a movie about the one and only Santa Clause. Throw in Martin Short’s Jack Frost and kids will be in holiday heaven.
Why Not: This franchise, like Tim Allen himself, is pretty played.
Projections: $25 to 27 million opening; $120 million total.

UNKNOWN (IFC First Take)
Starring Jim Caviezel, Jeremy Sisto, Peter Stormare, Greg Kinnear, Barry Pepper, Joe Pantoliano, Kevin Chapman, Clayne Crawford, Bridget Moynahan
Directed by Simon Brand (debut); Written by Matthew Waynee (debut)
Genre: Drama, Mystery, Thriller
Not Rated
Tagline: “Trust No One. Fear Everyone.”
Plot Summary: Five men wake up in a locked warehouse with no knowledge of who they are or how they get there. As they begin to realize that they were all part of an elaborate kidnapping plot…they still have to figure out who kidnapped whom.
Of Note: This amazing debut is a thought-provoking mystery in the vein of Memento (also starring Joe Pantoliano) or Bryan Singer’s The Usual Suspects with an amazing cast of actors and a great script.
Comparisons: Memento, The Usual Suspects, Identity, Cellular, Phone Booth
Why I Should See It: It’s not often that you get to see something as original and intriguing as this in a debut film, and the strong cast really sells Waynee’s intriguing premise.
Why Not: Chances are that IFC won’t get this movie out into mainstream American theatres, so most people will have to try to catch it on IFC First Take or when it’s released on DVD. Folks in New York, L.A and Denver can see it on Friday.
REVIEW (Coming Soon!)

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OTHER LIMITED RELEASES:

A SOAP (Strand Releasing) ­ Pernille Fischer Christensen’s Danish drama about a 32-year-old woman who moves out from living with her boyfriend to end up in an apartment with a transsexual who she then becomes involved with. Opens at the Quad Cinemas in New York.
ROMÁNTICO (Kino International) ­ After trying to make a living in San Francisco, a Mexican troubadour returns home. Opens in New York.
UMRAO JAAN (AdLab Films) ­ Superstar actress and former Miss India Aishwarya Rai stars in this adaptation of the 1905 Urdu novel by Mirza Haadi Ruswa, which opens in limited release.
WONDROUS OBLIVION (Palm Pictures) - Paul Morrison’s British drama about a young Jewish cricket enthusiast growing up in London during the ‘60s who experiences racism firsthand when he befriends a Jamaican man (Delroy Lindo) and his family who move in next door. It also opens at the Quad in New York. Mini-Review: People who aren't fans of cricket or just don't get the rules (i.e. about 99.9% of the U.S. population) might be chronically frustrated with the sports-related premise of this film, which peaks a bit early once it gets into its predictable interracial romance. Even more annoying though is the movie's title, which is uttered at seemingly random times by the main character without much of an explanation of why he keeps saying it. Still, it has a decent cast and its sweet and charming story keeps it from being a total loss even when it does seem a bit obvious. Rating: 6/10

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Next week, November motors along with four new flicks including Will Ferrell in Marc Forster’s quirky Stranger Than Fiction, Russell Crowe and Ridley Scott reunite for A Good Year, Sarah Michelle Gellar makes The Return to horror, and Christian Bale is a psychotic Army Ranger looking for a new job in Harsh Times.