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THE WEEKEND PREDICTIONS: (final update 11.16.06)

TW	LW	Title	Weekend (in millions)	Change	# Of Theaters	Average	Week
1	New	Happy Feet	$41.6	N/A	3,804	$10,936	1
2	New	Casino Royale	$39.8	N/A	3,434	$11,590	1
3	1	Borat	$15.6	-45%	2,611	$5,975	3
4	2	The Santa Clause 3	$9.6	-43%	3,359	$2,858	3
5	3	Flushed Away	$9.1	-46%	3,307	$2,742	3
6	4	Stranger Than Fiction	$7.7	-42%	2,270	$3,392	2
7	New	Let's Go to Prison	$4.4	N/A	1,495	$2,943	1
8	6	Babel	$3.6	-36%	1,251	$2,838	4
9	5	Saw III	$3.1	-55%	1,942	$1,596	4
10	7	The Departed	$3.0	-42%	1,611	$1,862	7
			Est. Weekend Total $137.45	Est. Avg. Drop-Off -44%		Est. Average PTA $4,249

As the holiday season kicks off in earnest, we get two of the most anticipated movies of the holiday season with the new James Bond movie Casino Royale, a back-to-basics prequel starring the new 007 Daniel Craig, and George (Babe) Miller’s new computer animated musical extravaganza Happy Feet, which should have a wide appeal towards kids, adults and teens, thanks to its dancing penguin premise. Still a bit of an unknown quantity, Casino Royale should win Friday with ease but might have more difficulty over the weekend as families will flock to the new animated film. Regardless, both should have strong legs through the holidays as they get more people through word-of-mouth.

The same can’t be said for Bob ("Mr. Show") Odenkirk’s R-rated comedy Let’s Go to Prison, starring Dax Shepard and Will Arnett, which will have very little chance of making a mark as an option agains the much stronger Sacha Baron Cohen and Will Ferrell comedies already in theatres. Being dumped into just 1,400+ theatres with very little promotion, it'll end up near the bottom of the Top 10.

Late Addition: This weekend, After Dark, the indie distributor specializing in horror, will team with Lionsgate for a one-weekend only Horror Fest: 8 Films to Die For which will play in 488 theatres nationwide, allowing horror fans to see 8 little-seen films that have never been given theatrical release. It's an interesting idea that's been well advertised, so don't be too surprised if the combined gross of these movies gets the fest roughly $2.5 million in its single weekend. Also, opening semi-wide (321 theatres) is Richard Linklater's Fast Food Nation, based on Eric Schlosser's bestselling non-fiction book, but it's likely to end up with less than $2 million and outside the Top 10.

As far as the returning movies, Borat should continue hold up well against the new movies, although both The Santa Clause 3 and Flushed Away will have trouble holding ground against the higher profile family film, even though they should be able to remain in the Top 5.

Last year, Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire opened with over $102 million, while Fox unleashed the Johnny Cash biopic Walk the Line, starring Joaquin Phoenix and Reese Witherspoon, which brought in $22 million of its own. Since that’s $124 million right there and it’s doubtful the new movies will bring in that much business, it’s unlikely this weekend will surpass the $168 million made by the Top 10 this same weekend last year. .

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THE CHOSEN ONE:

THE AURA (IFC Films)
Starring Ricardo Darín, Dolores Fonzi, Pablo Cedrón, Nahuel Pérez Biscayart, Jorge D'Elía, Alejand
Written and directed by Fabián Bielinsky (Nine Queens)
Genre: Crime, Drama, Thriller
Story: While on a hunting trip in the Pantagonian forest, an epileptic taxidermist (Ricardo Darín) accidentally shoots a man and learns about the planned robbery of an armored car. Using his skills for observation and blending into the background, he plots his own heist that gets him involved with a lot of dangerous, violent men, and his epilepsy tends to strike at the worst possible times.

Back in 2002, Fabián Belinksy’s Argentina-based crime drama Nine Queens was given a limited release here, just a few months after movies like Ocean’s 11, The Italian Job and The Score successfully revived the heist flick. Nine Queens was an amazing piece of work, following two con men as they tried to pull the perfect con (here’s the really bad review I wrote back then), and it was a strong enough premise for Steven Soderbergh and George Clooney to produce an English remake (which I predicted in my review, actually), though the resulting Criminal, starring John C. Reilly and Diego Luna, just didn’t have the same magic as the original.

The Aura is the second film from filmmaker Fabián Bielinsky, once again reuniting him with his Nine Queens star Ricardo Darín, and it’s an equally fascinating premise that inserts an ordinary guy into the world of crime, in this case, a quiet unassuming taxidemist who has always secretly planned to pull the perfect crime. When he finally gets the chance, he gets pulled into a dangerous world he never could have expected. There isn’t as much dialogue in this movie, but it has an amazing look and feel, partly due to the Pantagonian forest and wilderness setting, which creates a counterpoint to Nine Queens’ urban environment. It’s a slow film, and some might feel it’s too long, but once the pieces of the story start coming together, it’s hard not to be amazed.

Tragically, Bielinsky passed away earlier this year from a heart attack before the U.S. release of his second film, which is a shame, because he’s created two amazing films that will stand the test of time, and it’s sad that we’ll never see any more movies from this talented visionary.

The Aura will open at the IFC Center in New York on Friday.

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CASINO ROYALE (Sony)
Starring Daniel Craig, Judi Dench, Eva Green, Mads Mikkelsen, Jeffrey Wright, Giancarlo Giannini, Caterina Murino, Simon Abkarian, Tobias Menzies, Ivana Milicevic, Clemens Schik, Ludger Pistor, Claudio Santamaria, Isaach de Bankole
Directed by Martin Campbell (GoldenEye, The Mask of Zorro, The Legend of Zorro, Beyond Borders); Written by Neil Purvis and Robert Wade (Die Another Day, The World is Not Enough, Johnny English, Stoned), Paul Haggis (Crash, Million Dollar Baby, Flags of Our Fathers, The Last Kiss)
Genre: Action, Adventure, Drama, Espionage
Rated PG-13
Tagline: “Before there was James, there was Bond.” (I don’t think that makes sense.)
Plot Summary: James Bond (Daniel Craig) has just received his license to kill when he’s assigned to a mission of tracking down a terrorist ring and it’s financier, a ruthless banker named Le Chiffre (Mads Mikkelsen). It leads him to a high stakes poker game at the Casino Royale in France, where he has to work with Vesper Lynd (Eva Green) to try to take the money planned to fund terrorist schemes.
Of Note: Sony's first James Bond movie after their purchase of MGM relaunches the franchise with a movie based on Ian Fleming’s first Bond novel Casino Royale, bringing GoldenEye director Martin Campbell back to the franchise to induct Daniel Craig, the 6th actor to play James Bond. (Not including the original versions of Casino Royale.)
Mini-Review: For his first outing as 007, Daniel Craig truly delivers in what is clearly one of the most violent and dramatic Bond films to date without ever losing sight of Ian Fleming’s original vision. Casino Royale’s strength lies in its intelligent script that successfully relaunches James Bond into the modern-day, real world with tension-filled high stakes poker games replacing the original novel’s baccarat. Even though it sticks to the book, that doesn’t keep director Martin Campbell from topping himself with his most stylish film work and jaw-dropping action scenes that have to be seen to be believed. If that weren’t enough, the movie offers a great new Bond Girl in Eva Green, whose chemistry with Craig’s Bond is like something out of a classic movie from the ‘50s and ‘60s, as well as an eclectic new Bond villain in Mads Mikkelsen’s Le Chiffre. Towards the end, it starts to drag a little bit, and it could have easily been trimmed down 10 to 15 minutes, but ultimately, Casino Royale is not just a great Bond film, but it’s a great movie, period. Rating: 8.5/10

Analysis: (As promised, when a film warrants it, it will get a full write-up and analysis.)

When Pierce Brosnan took over the role of James Bond 007 in 1995, it came after a six-year hiatus in the franchise, but the new blood helped revive the franchise, making GoldenEye the highest grossing Bond film in the U.S., even surpassing the $210 million worldwide gross of 1979’s Moonraker. Brosnan’s last film Die Another Day grossed over twice that amount worldwide, so the decision by EON Productions, the guardians of the James Bond legacy, to change Bonds wasn’t an attempt to revive the franchise as much as to shake things up and try to create a new Bond for the 21^st Century. Of course, the fact that Sony Pictures had bought Bond’s lifelong studio MGM, presumably to get their hands on Bond, helped move things forward pretty quickly.

Of course, the big problem is that four years after the last movie, action movies geared towards the 18 ­ 25 males have faltered a bit, as today’s teens are more interested in video games and other things. There’s very little reason for them to be interested in a character that their father loves, which is a similar problem faced by Bryan Singer’s Superman Returns earlier this year. Still, EON was pretty serious about keeping the franchise alive, convincing director Martin Campbell, who made GoldenEye such a hit, to return to the franchise, and hiring Oscar-winning screenwriter Paul Haggis (Crash, Million Dollar Baby) to touch up the script by regular Bond writers Purvis and Wade.

Casino Royale is very much a reboot, returning to Ian Fleming’s very first novel that introduced James Bond. The Broccolis never made that book into a movie, maybe because it had already been adapted into a TV movie and a spoof starring David Niven and Peter Sellers. They decided to do a version that was far more faithful to Fleming’s novel than any of the previous movies in the series, except setting it in modern-day times and adding a new opening and framing story. It’s very much like what Warner Bros. did in last year’s Batman Begins, in the sense that it hopes to reboot the franchise so that new and younger fans will be able to get on board.

It makes a bit more sense that the new James Bond would be a British actor, but in this case, Daniel Craig hasn’t really been in as many major U.S. releases as Christian Bale, who had already been getting noticed in movies like American Psycho and Reign of Fire. Craig’s biggest moment was his starring role in Matthew Vaughn’s crime drama Layer Cake, a role that probley helped convince the Bond producers to consider him in the face of more popular choices like Clive Owen and Gerard Butler. Before making Layer Cake, Craig had appeared in Roger Michell’s last two dramatic films, Enduring Love and The Mother, neither which got a very big release here. Last year, Steven Spielberg called upon Craig to play an assassin in his controversial political thriller Munich, and recently, Craig could be seen playing killer Perry Smith in Douglas McGrath’s Capote biopic Infamous, which also didn’t do much business.

Daniel Craig is not exactly a household name here, even though there’s been a lot of news coverage of him taking over for Pierce Brosnan. At this point, it’s hard to imagine Craig could be a bigger draw, considering that Brosnan had already settled into the character by the time he had his biggest hit with Die Another Day. There’s also a lot of controversy surrounding Craig being the first “blonde Bond” which will probably have a two-fold effect: first, there will be the Bond fans who absolutely refuse to see the movie (at least until they hear from friends or read on the internet that Craig delivers); secondly, there will be the Bond fans who will go to see the movie hoping that Craig will fail and confirm their greatest fears. Both camps may be disappointed to learn that Craig is actually very good in the movie, probably the strongest dramatic actor to take on the mantle since Connery, and that’s what will help Bond appeal to a wider audience than previous movies, even if it takes a bit more time to get them interested.

Casino Royale also introduces the original Bond Girl, Vesper Lynd, as played by French actress Eva Green, also a bit of an unknown quantity here, having only appeared in Bernardo Bertolucci’s erotic drama The Dreamers and Ridley Scott’s Kingdom of Heaven. European Bond fans might get a thrill from the new Bond villain Le Chiffre, as played by Danish superstar Mads Mikkelsen, or some of the other characters, including the beautiful Catarina Murino as another conquest for Bond, and actress/model Ivana Milicevic as Le Chiffre’s girlfriend. The only returning factor from previous Bond movies is Dame Judi Dench, who was introduced as Bond’s boss M in GoldenEye and who has appeared in all of the Brosnan movies since then. The only other recognizable face is that of Jeffrey Wright playing CIA operative Felix Leiter, a highly respected actor seen in recent movies like Steve Gaghan’s Syriana and M. Night Shyamalan’s Lady in the Water.

Much of the thought behind the new tone of the Bond movies comes from the success of the two Jason Bourne movies, The Bourne Identity and The Bourne Supremacy, starring Matt Damon. Both of them did a lot of business by going back to the basics of the Sean Connery Bond movies, offering espionage, intrigue and realistic action. Even though Casino Royale retains many of the elements that older Bond fans love, the action movie genre has seen better days, as this past summer, more recent “real life” action movies like Mission: Impossible III were passed over for fantastical movies like X-Men and Pirates of the Caribbean. Casino Royale is clearly the toughest and most violent Bond movie ever, which should appeal to the younger male audience that might not be into all the gizmos and gadgets of previous Bonds. Older guys will also be into the film’s central Texas Hold ‘Em competition, much the same way as they’ve been drawn to the various poker television shows and online games (although that trend is already on its way out.) Who knows whether women who have liked the previous suave and debonaire Bonds will accept Craig’s blonde locks and tougher look, not to mention all the violence, but it will be important to get them interested if Casino Royale is to be a long-term hit.

The last James Bond movie, Die Another Day, opened in the same weekend four years ago to become the highest opening and grossing movie of the series, though that had the added bonus of superstar Halle Berry as the latest Bond Girl, Jinx, and that was the same year she won the Oscar for Monster’s Ball, so her Q rating was at an all-time high. Casino Royale doesn’t have that added starpower, nor does it have the kind of catchy title that might draw people into theatres for those that don’t realize it’s the latest James Bond movie. Put it this way, older moviegoers and James Bond fans will know the name Casino Royale from the books and earlier movies, but people just going to the theatre and seeing what’s playing? Not so much. At least, Casino Royale has the added marketing clout of Sony, who have a lot riding on the success of the movie and have been using all their marketing muscle to make sure that everyone knows about it, and not just Bond fans.

With Thanksgiving next week and the holidays just around the corner, Casino Royale should be able to hold up well over the next three weekends, though it might take its biggest hit once other political thrillers like The Good German and Blood Diamond open in early December.

Comparisons:

Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Die Another Day	11/22/02	3,314		$47.07	$14,204	$158.63
The World is Not Enough	11/19/99	3,165		$35.52	$11,223	$126.93
Tomorrow Never Dies	12/19/97	2,807		$25.14	$8,956	$125.28
GoldenEye	11/17/95	2,667		$26.21	$9,828	$106.43
Munich	12/23/05	532		$6.04	$11,355	$47.38
Layer Cake	5/13/05	10		$0.08	$8,171	$2.34
The Bourne Supremacy	7/23/04	3,165		$52.52	$16,595	$170.45
The Bourne Identity	6/14/02	2,638		$27.12	$10,281	$121.38
Mission: Impossible III	5/5/06	4,054		$47.74	$11,777	$133.50
Mission: Impossible 2	5/26/00	3,653	$21.00	$57.85	$15,836	$215.35
Mission: Impossible	5/24/96	3,012	$18.10	$45.43	$15,083	$180.98
Batman Begins	6/17/05	3,858	$24.15	$48.75	$12,635	$205.09

Why I Should See It: The Bond franchise is relaunched with a shot-in-the-arm prequel that’s tougher and grittier than previous Bonds, thanks to Daniel Craig, the best dramatic actor to play the role since Sean Connery.
Why Not: (channeling Bond fanboys worldwide) OMG!!! He’s blonde!!!! Bond can’t be blonde!!!! ::commits Hari Kari::
Projections: $38 to 40 million opening weekend; $165 million overall.

HAPPY FEET (Warner Bros.)
Starring (the voices of) Elijah Wood, Robin Williams, Brittany Murphy, Hugh Jackman, Nicole Kidman, Hugo Weaving, Anthony LaPaglia, E.G. Daily
Directed by George Miller (Mad Max, The Road Warrior, Mad Max Beyond Thunderdome, Babe: Pig in the City) Written by George Miller (the Mad Max movies, Babe, Babe: Pig in the City), John Collee (Master and Commander: Far Side of the World), Judy Morris (Babe: Pig in the City), Warren Coleman
Genre: Animation, Comedy, Family, Musical, Adventure
Rated PG
Tagline: “Everybody Dance Now!”
Plot Summary: In the Antarctic world of Emperor Penguins, Mumble (voiced by Elijah Wood) becomes an outcast because he can’t sing, instead choosing to tap dance. Despite the support of his mother (Nicole Kidman), Mumble is kicked out of the flock, so he decides to go looking for the reason why the flock’s fish supply has been dwindling, sending him on an adventure that takes him across the world.
Of Note: The creator of Mad Max and Babe creates a musical animated film that successfully crosses March of the Penguins with Moulin Rouge!
Mini-Review: Ably combining the magic of Walt Disney with Pixar’s lush visuals and DreamWorks’ hipness, George Miller creates a movie musical experience that often surpasses its animated talking animal roots. Happy Feet isn’t just an impressive feat for the way Miller’s talented cast makes you believe that penguins can sing and dance in lavish musical extravaganzas that take equal influence from MGM and Moulin Rouge!, but he’s created a hyper-realistic world that’s as faithful to reality as March of the Penguins, but instilling the Antarctic creatures with unbelievable human emotions and characterizations. It’s hard not to fall in love with these great characters like Elijah Wood’s unlikely hero Mumble to the two roles voiced by Robin Williams, both of which are genuinely funny. Even Hugh Jackman’s Elvis-like drawl, which one would think might grate on the nerves after a while, adds something special to the mix. Even with what could have been a depressing ending in the vein of “Brazil,” the movie is saved by one last musical number that’s sure to have you tapping your own feet and wanting to see it again the second that it’s over. Clearly, Happy Feet is not only one of the finest animated films in decades, but also an amazing achievement in film storytelling. Rating: 10/10!

Pros: While there have been tons of computer animated movies this year, Happy Feet is the only musical adventure of the bunch, as well as the only one to feature penguins. After the success of the 2005 documentary March of the Penguins, there are a lot of kids and grown-ups who LOVE LOVE LOVE penguins, and just as many kids and grown-ups love music and musicals, so combining the two is nothing short of genius. Not surprisingly, that genius comes from Australian filmmaker George Miller, who first invaded this country with his Mad Max movies in the ‘80s and then found equal success with 1995’s Babe, a rare family film that was nominated for an Oscar before spawning a less successful sequel a few years later. Miller’s foray into animation is significant in that he’s used motion capture to create a talking animals movie that makes the Antarctic creatures so human that most people will forget that they’re watching CGI creatures, and they sing and clap along to the amazing musical numbers set to some of the most renowned pop tunes of recent years. Even the usually cranky Artist Formerly and Presently Known as Prince loved what he saw enough to provide a rare original tune for the movie!

Miller has assembled a great voice cast including fellow Aussies Hugh Jackman, fresh off DreamWorks’ Flushed Away, and Nicole Kidman, who will remind people how much they loved her in Baz Luhrman’s Moulin Rouge!. The star of the movie is Elijah Wood, best known as Frodo from The Lord of the Rings trilogy, and he’s off on a similar quest as Mumble the tap-dancing penguin, while actress Brittany Murphy gives the voice to his singing love interest Gloria.

Miller’s smartest signing may have been Robin Williams, who is having a decent year with RV and other movies, but who will always be loved by kids for his voice role as the genie in Disney’s Aladdin, and he also was a featured voice in Fox’s 2005 CG animated feature Robots. Williams’ insanity is usually worth a laugh or two among kids and parents, and the various characters he plays will add a great comic element to the movie that will help win people over.

If that wasn’t enough, Miller even brought back E.G. Daily, “the voice of Babe the pig”, to provide the voice of the young Mumble, something which will be a thrill to fans of that popular film.

Happy Feet is being released into IMAX theatres at the same time as regular screens, something that has proven successful for many of Warner Bros. other recent movies including last year’s Charlie and the Chocolate Factory and this year’s Superman Returns. For many, that will end up being the best way to see the movie (or the choice for second viewings), and when combined with the other 3,600+ theatres, Happy Feet should have enough saturation to generate a lot of business.

Warner Bros. has taken a cue from Disney by associating the movie with a number of other companies, not necessarily the great promotion of having Happy Meal toys at McDonald’s, but more inventive pairings like having the penguins dancing in ads for flu vaccine. Not surprisingly, Happy Feet is already one of the frontrunners for the Animated Feature Oscar, and it’s likely to best Pixar Studios’ Cars, as well as being the only movie still in theatres that could take financial advantage of such a win.

Cons: The biggest obstacle may be that Warner Bros. is less experienced marketing computer animated and family films than companies like Disney and DreamWorks. They released Robert Zemeckis and Tom Hanks’ The Polar Express a few years back, which used a similar motion capture technique, though not as effectively, and it didn’t open nearly as well as other computer animated movies (its per-theatre average we under $7,000) but it went on to be a big hit over the holidays as families flocked to it as Christmas approached.

Warner Bros.’ more recent animated feature, The Ant Bully, produced by Tom Hanks, bombed really really badly over the summer, though that movie didn’t have nearly as much going for it as Happy Feet does.

There are already two family films in theatres, and though neither one opened very strongly, they’re both holding up well in their second weekends. You have to expect that they’ll either take business away from Happy Feet or they’ll just end up getting the spillover from sell-outs. Some people just don’t like musicals, and though kids and girls/women might love them, guys might not be caught dead seeing this movie, which means it’s more a movie for mothers to bring their kids than fathers. That’s fine since the guys will probably go see Casino Royale this weekend.

Comparisons:

Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Robots	3/11/05	3,776		$36.05	$9,546	$128.19
Aladdin	11/27/92	1,131	$0.67	$19.29	$17,056	$216.97
March of the Penguins	6/24/05	1,867	$19.30	$7.12	$3,812	$77.41
Chicago	2/7/03	1,841	$53.02	$10.79	$5,859	$170.68
Moulin Rouge!	6/1/01	2,279	$0.68	$13.72	$6,019	$57.22
Babe: Pig in the City	11/25/98	2,384		$6.27	$2,630	$18.32
Babe	8/4/95	1,591		$8.74	$5,493	$63.66
Chicken Little	11/4/05	3,654		$40.05	$10,961	$135.36
Madagascar	5/27/05	4,131		$47.22	$11,432	$193.20
The Polar Express	11/12/04	3,650	$7.31	$23.32	$6,390	$162.75
Shark Tale	10/1/04	4,016		$47.60	$11,854	$160.76
Ice Age	3/15/02	3,316		$46.30	$13,966	$176.39

Why I Should See It: George Miller has created an amazing musical comedy that surpasses its animated genre roots.
Why Not: Singing and dancing penguins? Yeah, it’s as weird as it sounds.
Projections: $40 to 43 million opening weekend; $245 million total. (This is likely to be one of the biggest movies of the holiday season with insanely strong legs, since audiences are going to love it.)

LET’S GO TO PRISON (Universal)
Starring Dax Shepard, Will Arnett, Chi McBride, Dylan Baker, Steve Dahl, David Koechner, Michael Shannon
Directed by Bob Odenkirk (feature film directorial debut of one half of “Mr. Show” and a writer from “Saturday Night Live”); Written by Robert Ben Garant and Thomas Lennon (The Pacifier, Taxi, Herbie: Fully Loaded, upcoming: Balls of Fury, Reno 911!: Miami), Michael Patrick Jann (writer, director and member of “The State”; also co-writing Reno 911!: Miami)
Genre: Comedy
Rated R
Tagline: “Welcome to the slammer.”
Plot Summary: To get back at the judge who put him in jail, John Lyshitski (Dax Shepard) decides to torment the late judge’s son Nelson Biederman IV (Will Arnett), who has been falsely accused and jailed of a crime. Lyshitski decides to get himself put back in jail as Nelson’s cellmate.
Of Note: Jim Hogshire’s non-fiction prison survivor manual “You Are Going to Prison” is adapted for the big screen as a dark comedy by “Reno 911!”’s Ben Garant and Thomas Lennon with “Mr. Show" star Bob Odenkirk directing.

Pros: Let’s Go To Prison has all the makings of a cult comedy hit, mostly from its credentials: Ben Garant and Thomas Lennon of “The State” and “Reno 911” have been writing a lot of comedies for Disney, so they’ve been toning down their subversive humor. Let’s Go to Prison allows them to let loose with R-rated comedy in a prison setting, which makes it obvious that there will be scenes that would make the cast of HBO’s “OZ” blush. As far as the cast, Dax Shepard gained some popularity in 2003 when he co-starred in the hit summer comedy Without a Paddle, and he recently co-starred in Employee of the Month as third fiddle to Dane Cook and Jessica Simpson. Will Arnett is best known for his starring role in FOX’s “Arrested Development” (and for being Mr. Amy Poehler). He has absolutely no track record at the box office, but Let’s Go to Prison begins a series of high profile comedies that he’ll be appearing in.

Cons: Sure, “Mr. Show” had a lot of fans, as does “Reno 911,” but does anyone even know that that this movie is directed by Odenkirk, let alone written by the guys behind “Reno 911!”? The movie certainly isn’t being promoted very heavily, and obviously, Universal has very little confidence in this movie, because they’re dumping it into just 1,400 theatres. It’s also only the second movie this year that Universal hasn’t screened for critics or anyone else before opening (not including Rogue Pictures movies like last week’s The Return.) Although R-rated comedies seemed to show signs of life last year, one can’t forget that just one year earlier, a slew of R-rated comedies (Eurotrip, Harold & Kumar Go To White Castle) bombed despite having strong cult followings. One can’t assume that the success of 40-Year-Old Virgin or Wedding Crashers signifies success for all R-rated comedies (see this summer’s Beerfest) and Let’s Go to Prison will have to contend with the third weekend of the comedy phenomenon Borat, on top of everything else. It also looks pretty dumbs from the commercials, which mainly focus on the physical humor. (Then again, this is the “Year of the Dumb” so maybe that’s a good thing.)

Comparisons:

Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Employee of the Month	10/6/06	2,579	$11.41	$4,423	$27.52
Without a Paddle	8/20/04	2,730	$13.53	$4,956	$58.16
Zathura	11/11/05	3,223	$13.43	$4,166	$28.05
Accepted	8/18/06	2,914	$10.02	$3,440	$36.30
Harold & Kumar Go to White Castle	7/30/04	2,135	$5.48	$2,567	$18.23
Eurotrip	2/20/04	2,512	$6.71	$2,672	$17.72
Malibu's Most Wanted	4/18/03	2,503	$12.62	$5,041	$34.31
The New Guy	5/10/02	2,687	$9.01	$3,352	$28.97
Deuce Bigalow: European Gigolo	8/12/05	3,127	$9.63	$3,078	$22.26
Deuce Bigalow: Male Gigalo	12/10/99	2,154	$12.22	$5,673	$65.54

Why I Should See It: The thought of a comedy combining the humor of “Reno 911”, “Mr. Show”, and “Arrested Development” certainly sounds intriguing.
Why Not: And yet, it’s “so funny” that Universal isn’t showing it to anyone before it comes out. Yeah, this can’t be good.
Projections: $3 to 5 million opening; $12 million total.

BOBBY(The Weinstein Company/MGM)
Starring Anthony Hopkins, Demi Moore, Sharon Stone, Lindsay Lohan, Elijah Wood, William H. Macy, Helen Hunt, Christian Slater, Heather Graham, Laurence Fishburne, Freddy Rodriguez, Nick Cannon, Emilio Estevez, Martin Sheen, Shia LaBeouf, Jacob Vargas, Brian Geraghty, Joshua Jackson, Joy Bryant, Svetlana Metkina, Kip Pardue, David Krumholtz, Harry Belafonte, Mary Elizabeth Winstead
Written and directed by Emilio Estevez (Men at Work, The War at Home, Wisdom)
Genre: Drama, History
Rated R
Tagline: “He saw wrong and tried to right it. He saw suffering and tried to heal it. He saw war and tried to stop it.”
Plot Summary: On the night of the 1968 primary elections, Robert F. Kennedy arrived at the Ambassador Hotel for a party, and Bobby takes a look at 22 people from different backgrounds and lifestyles as they anticipate the arrival of Kennedy, little knowing that he would be gunned down by an assassin.
Of Note: For his first film in ten years, Emilio Estevez assembles an amazing ensemble cast to tell a fictional story of the night that Senator Bobby Kennedy was assassinated. Oh, and it reunites him with Demi Moore for the first time since 1985’s St. Elmo’s Fire.
Mini-Review: The thought of a movie featuring so many different characters and stories might make some fearful that Emilio Estevez’s ambitious film would be a complete mess. In fact, Estevez uses this amazing piece of work to prove himself as a highly capable filmmaker by combining actual footage and speeches by Kennedy with new material to create something stirring and memorable. While some of the stories are more interesting than others, his amazing ensemble cast does a fine job investing the viewer into their lives despite the way the movie quickly jumps around from one story to the next. Of course, actors like Anthony Hopkins and William H. Macy are always great, but there are a few surprise stand-out performances by Nick Cannon and Christian Slater. While Demi Moore does a bit of scenery-chewing as a has-been actress, Sharon Stone shows her up with a moving moment shortly after that, which is the movie’s high point. While the various vignettes and stories might seem like a contrived way to create a “Crash”-like story at first, all of these stories do come together by the end as Kennedy arrives at the Ambassador to his well-known fate, bringing all of the characters into the act for a powerful finale. Rating: 8.5/10

Pros: Estevez’s film has an amazing cast that traverses the spectrum of the acting world, everyone from veterans like Anthony Hopkins and Martin Sheen to ‘80s superstars like Sharon Stone and Demi Moore, right to the younger generation of actors including Shia LaBeouf, Elijah Wood, Mary Elizabeth Winstead and even Lindsay Lohan. It’s an amazing cast offering something for everyone, and you have to expect that Estevez’s script must have really been impressive to get most of them on board.
Cons: It’s hard to think of Emilio Estevez as the director of a serious ensemble drama like this, since many will still remember him best as the star of The Breakfast Club and Repo Man.
Comparisons: JFK, Malcolm X, Good Night, And Good Luck, Crash
Why I Should See It: Looks like it could be a pretty amazing movie from the cast and premise.
Why Not: After forty years, does this day in history really have as much of an impact on people as it did 30-40 years ago? (If you read my review, you'll see that the answer is "yes".)
Bobby opens in New York and L.A. on Friday, and expands nationwide on November 23.


FAST FOOD NATION (Fox Searchlight)
Starring Patricia Arquette, Bobby Cannavale, Luis Guzman, Ethan Hawke, Ashley Johnson, Greg Kinnear, Kris Kristofferson, Avril Lavigne, Esai Morales, Catalina Sandino Moreno, Lou Taylor Pucci, Ana Claudia Talancon, Wilmer Valderrama
Directed by Richard Linklater (Dazed and Confused, Slacker, Before Sunset, School of Rock, Bad News Bears, A Scanner Darkly, Waking Life); Written by Richard LInklater (Dazed and Confused, Slacker, A Scanner Darkly) and Eric Schlossser (author of “Fast Food Nation”)
Genre: Docudrama
Rated R
Tagline: “Do you want Lies with that?”
Plot Summary: Don Henderson (Greg Kinnear), an executive for the Mickey’s Fast Food chain, goes to Colorado to investigate contaminated meat being served in their restaurants. Once there, he learns about the horrifying conditions at the company’s meat-packing plant, where Mexican immigrant workers are overworked and abused by supervisors. Meanwhile, Amber (Ashley Johnson) is a teen girl working at a Mickey's restaurant who wants to get out of that life.
Of Note: Prolific filmmaker Richard Linklater takes on the fast food industry in his fictional take on Eric Schlosser’s best-selling non-fiction book, “Fast Food Nation.”
Pros: Richard Linklater has a strong reputation as a filmmaker among the indie world and among the liberal 20-30 somethings, which makes him the perfect candidate to adapt Eric Schlosser’s best-selling novel. Though the thought of a movie about the fast food industry might seem dull, the success of Morgan Spurlock’s Super Size Me in 2004 and Al Gore’s An Inconvenient Truth earlier this year shows that audiences really are interested in learning more truths about their world.
Cons: Not everyone likes Linklater’s verbose writing style and this is quite a departure from his more commercial films like School of Rock and different from his indie fare like Before Sunset or A Scanner Darkly, even if parallels can be drawn to movies like Dazed and Confused.
Comparisons: Super Size Me, Dazed and Confused, Maria Full of Grace, Traffic, Crash
Why I Should See It: This may be one of the most important environmental movies this year after Al Gore’s An Inconvenient Truth, and like Morgan Spurlock’s Super Size Me, it reveals interesting things about the fast food industry, but in a less preachy way using Linklater’s great characterizations.
Why Not: You’ll never want to eat a fast food hamburger ever again. (I’m not joking here.)
Fast Food Nation opens in over 300 theatres nationwide.
REVIEW

FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION (Warner Independent)
Starring Carrie Aizley, Bob Balaban, Ed Begley, Jr., Jennifer Coolidge, Paul Dooley, Ricky Gervais, Christopher Guest, Rachael Harris, John Michael Higgins, Michael Hitchcock, Don Lake, Eugene Levy, Jane Lynch, Michael McKean, Larry Miller, Christopher Moynihan, Catherine O'Hara, Jim Piddock, Parker Posey, Harry Shearer, Deborah Theaker, Fred Willard, Scott Williamson (Still, not as big a cast as Bobby)
Directed by Christopher Guest (A Mighty Wind, Best in Show, The Big Picture, Waiting for Guffman); Written by Christopher Guest and Eugene Levy (A Mighty Wind, Best in Show, Waiting for Guffman)
Genre: Comedy, Drama
Rated PG-13
Plot Summary: As the cast and crew of the indie drama Home for Purim try to finish making their movie, tensions start to mount when lead actress Marilyn Hack (Catherine O’Hara) starts generating Oscar buzz on the internet. It quickly spreads to actor Victor Allan Miller (Harry Shearer) and then young Callie Webb (Parker Posey), as the director (Christopher Guest) and writers (Michael McKean, Bob Balaban) try to keep their vision pure among mounting industry pressure to make the movie into a hit.
Of Note: This is the fourth collaboration between Christopher Guest, Eugene Levy and their comedic ensemble who have produced three popular mockumentaries over the last ten years. This is also Guest’s return to shining the comedy spotlight on the movie business having directed The Big Picture in 1989.
Pros: The comedy of Christopher Guest, Eugene Levy and their nameless comedic ensemble is something that has found many fans, as their last two movies A Mighty Wind and Best in Show both having made over $17 million theatrically. The country certainly has gone Oscar crazy in recent years, which may be why so many media publications spend so much space dedicated to them, making it rife for satire. The cast really is what makes them special with many of the ensemble being hired based on their work here. Of course, Eugene Levy was already popular from his appearance in American Pie and on SCTV, but others like Jane Lynch and John Michael Higgins have gone to get hilarious featured roles in movies like 40-Year-Old Virgin and The Break-Up.
Cons: The subject matter of Hollywood and awards might not be something that appeals to those not in the movie or entertainment business compared to widely appealing topics like dog shows or folk music. A lot of the jokes may go over the head of those who don’t understand the humor, having not worked in the industry, but the film-within-a-film also includes a lot of silly Jewish humor that may not translate to Goys. This might limit the comedy’s appeal to places like New York and L.A. and it probably won’t do well enough to warrant going very wide.
Comparisons: A Mighty Wind, Best in Show, State and Main, The Big Picture, Tristram Shandy: A Cock and Bull Story
Why I Should See It: Christopher Guest and company have given us three hilarious movies, and For Your Consideration follows that tradition by looking at awards mania.
Why Not: The film’s Hollywood insider feel might not be something that American audiences can relate to in the same way as dog shows or folk music.
Opens in 18 theatres in select cities this weekend and expands into more cities next week.
REVIEW

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OTHER LIMITED RELEASES:

AFTER DARK HORRORFEST: 8 FILMS TO DIE FOR (After Dark) ­ For one weekend only, After Dark Films rolls out eight horror films that have never been seen in American theatres before, for one reason or another. They include Takashi Shimizu’s Reincarnation, Jason Todd Ipson’s Unrest, Mike Mendez’s The Gravedancers, Craig Singer’s Dark Ride and The Butcher Brothers’ The Hamiltons. Featuring one of the most annoying internet ad campaigns in the history of the World Wide Web (seriously, I can’t wait for this thing to be over to save my sanity!) the eight movies of the Horrorfest will play in 450 theatres across the nation for three days only with four of the movies getting encores on Monday and Tuesday. Check out the theatres and schedule here. One of the movies being shown is:
SNOOP DOGG’S HOOD OF HORROR (Xenon Pictures) - Snoop Dogg’s Hound of Hell presents a trilogy of horror tales about a supernatural happenings surrounding three individuals in a mysterious neighborhood.
CANDY (THINKFilm) ­ Heath Ledger and Abbie Cornish star in Neil Armfield’s Australian drug drama based on Luke Davies’ novel about a young couple in love who see their relationship torn apart by their heroin use. Co-starring Geoffrey Rush, it opens in New York at the Angelika.
Mini-Review: This is another well-done film from the land down under, showing what drugs do to you, though it takes more of the Requiem for a Dream approach than that of the little seen Aussie indie Little Fish. In other words, it's dark, depressing and hard to watch at times. Still, it's worthwhile viewing for the solid performances from Heath Ledger and Geoffrey Rush, but especially from Abbie Cornish, who may be the best new actress to materialize this year. (It even has actress Noni Hazlehurst playing an almost identical role as she played in Little Fish.) The writing is good, as are the visuals and use of music, though it would have been nice to see Armfield doing a movie that hasn't already been so well covered in better movies.Rating: 7/10
FLANNEL PAJAMAS (Gigantic Pictures) - Jeff Lipsky’s romantic drama about a couple who get into a relationship that may be too good to be true opens in New York on Wednesday and in L.A. on November 24.
LIES AND ALIBIS (Samuel Goldwyn Films) ­ In this retro crime drama, Steve Coogan plays a confidence man who starts a service to create alibis for men and women who want to cheat on their loved ones, who gets into trouble when one of his clients murders someone. With the help of Lola (Rebecca Romjin), Ray has to get out of the situation. Opens in L.A. at the Regent Showcase Theatre.
THE PIANO TUNER OF EARTHQUAKES (Zeitgeist Films) ­ Legendary animators The Quay Brothers direct a mostly live action film set on an island where a piano tuner is called upon to maintain a mad scientist’s automatons, not knowing of his plan to stage an opera with a deceased singer. With a look and feel like silent classics like The Cabinet of Dr. Caligari, it opens at New York’s Cinema Village.
WHO THE $#%& IS JACKSON POLLOCK? (Picturehouse) ­ “60 Minutes” producer Harry Moses’ documentary follows the case of Teri Horton, a 73-year-old former truck driver, who bought a painting for $5 at a flea market, which turned out to be a Jackson Pollock painting worth millions. Opens in select cities on Wednesday.
Mini-Review: On the one hand, this is a fascinating investigation into the art world, as Moses and his experts try to prove that Teri Horton’s painting is a real Jackson Pollock. Though they use some interesting techniques to try to find proof (forensics, talking to art forgers), it’s frustrating that it never really answers the question, instead being suitably vague with differing opinions from various “experts” on whether it’s a real Pollock or not. A documentary like this should leave you wanting to know more about art or Pollock, but instead, it seems so contrived and self-absorbed that it leaves you wanting to wash yourself of the art world after watching it. In general, it’s a pretty unsatisfying experience that probably won’t be of much interest to anyone except art lovers and Pollack admirers. Rating: 7/10

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Next week, Thanksgiving arrives with a bunch of new movies as Denzel Washington and Tony Scott reunite for Déjà Vu. Also, Denzel Washington and Tony Scott reunite for Déjà Vu (ha ha). Darren Aronofsky debuts his long-awaited The Fountain, Jack Black and Kyle Goss debut their long-awaited Tenacious D in The Pick of Destiny and someone must have been waiting long for Deck the Halls, but it sure as heck wasn’t me.

Copyright 2006 Edward Douglas


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