Your Weekly Guide to New Movies for March 17, 2006
By Edward Douglas -

Greetings and welcome back to the Weekend Warrior, your weekly guide to the weekend’s new movies. Tune in every Tuesday for the latest look at the upcoming weekend, and then check back on Friday for final projections based on actual theatre counts.

THE BATTLE CRY!

In the scattered feedback I tend to get, I’m often asked how I predict the box office. It’s a hard question to answer, because it involves a lot of work and research, as well as a good deal of intuition and instinct on what people want and like, but most of all, it involves an X factor that’s hard to describe.

Those who write-off the work of myself and the likes of Gitesh Pandya of Box Office Guru and Brandon Gray of Box Office Mojo as “guessing” really don’t know half of what goes into columns such as this one. Of course, there are plenty of box office prognosticators who just throw out numbers without any qualifying data to back it up, and it’s harder for me to take them seriously. Maybe that’s because for the last three years, for better or worse, the Weekend Warrior has consistently had weekend projections before anyone else.

Obviously, I’m far from perfect and there have been plenty of times when I’ve overestimated or underestimated the American movie-going public. This being the Year of the Dumb (see last week), movies that don’t look very good keep doing decent business, and few of us prognosticators have been able to keep up with this new trend. Even fewer of us believe that this trend might last the entire year. There are also plenty of times when it looks like something has a lot of interest, and then no one shows up to theatres, as was the case with last week’s Ultraviolet and Dave Chappelle’s Block Party.

While I’m not nearly as good at the self-analysis necessary to explain my thought process when it comes to my predictions, I do have to say that the first thing that has to be cast out when trying to predict box office is your own personal tastes. No one person can represent every single demographic of the movie going public in this country. It just doesn’t happen. Anyone who reads this column regularly knows that my tastes are particularly eclectic and erratic and rarely match the tastes of the public at large. That’s why I often try to catch the early previews of movies in theatres that are filled with people other than critics, because public screenings are really the best way to find out what people like and react to. The reaction at these screenings gives a good idea whether they might tell friends about the movie, although knowing whether there’s any awareness of a movie besides on the internet due to commercials or other marketing helps, too.

Of course, things like star power and box office history are important factors that go into every box office projection, but it’s hard to tell when suddenly a popular star is going to fall out of favor and stop bringing people into theatres. It’s also often hard to tell when lack of star power will be irrelevant due to a strong premise, something that has helped horror movies and kids’ films, two examples where star power often means bupkiss. The rest comes down to a lot of number crunching, trying to figure out what’s possible using the guidelines above, number of theatres, etc.

That all said, there are plenty of times where movies surprise the analysts by doing far better or worse than expected. Just look at last week’s Failure to Launch. We should never forget that predicting the box office has never been and probably never will be an exact science. If it ever really became that easy, then studios wouldn’t bother to greenlight movies or release them when they’re done. In some cases, this may end up being a good thing.

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THE CHOSEN ONE:

THANK YOU FOR SMOKING (Fox Searchlight)
Starring Aaron Eckhart, Maria Bello, Cameron Bright, Adam Brody, Sam Elliott, Katie Holmes, David Koechner, Rob Lowe, William H. Macy, J.K. Simmons, Robert Duvall
Written and directed by Jason Reitman
Rated R (for language and some sexual content)
Tagline: “Nick Naylor doesn’t hide the truth… he filters it.”
Story: Nick Naylor (Aaron Eckhart) is the lobbyist for Big Tobacco, making him one of the most disliked men in Washington, D.C., but as he tries to make smoking look better at a time when it comes under fire, he also feels the need to be a better role model for his teen son (Cameron Bright).
REVIEW

Ivan Reitman’s son Jason directs his first film, an adaptation of Christopher Buckley’s 1995 novel, which mixes wry dark humor about the tobacco industry, the government and Hollywood, with a touching human story about a father trying to connect with his son. The lead character Nick Naylor is fairly despicable, but actor Aaron Eckhart makes it hard not to like him because he tries to sell everyone on the virtues of cigarettes using all of the charm of a used car salesman. Reitman has assembled an amazing cast to play the eclectic characters Naylor meets while doing his job—Rob Lowe as a pretentious Hollywood agent, Robert Duvall as the chairman of the large tobacco company, William Macy as the senator from Vermont trying to take Naylor and the tobacco industry down, and Katie Holmes as an unscrupulous journalist who sleeps with Nick to get a story. The best of these are Maria Bello (History of Violence) and David Koechner (Anchorman) as two thirds of the MOD Squad (that’s short for Merchants of Death) and the scenes of them discussing their various vices makes this the funniest movie of the year so far. Of course, you’ll have to really appreciate dark humor and be able to enjoy watching characters who may be a bit too close to reality in their lack of scruples.

I remember trying to see this at the Toronto Film Festival and not being able to get in, but there was a lot of buzz surrounding the movie due to its political relevance with what’s going on in Washington, D.C. and it’s a great follow-up for Fox Searchlight to some of their great innovative comedies like Garden State and Sideways. I recently had a chance to talk to Aaron Eckhart about his role in the movie, which seems to be breaking away from the “nice guy” image he tends to have. “It’s so funny what the perception is. That’s the great thing. Sometimes I’m likable and sometimes I’m just adorable,” Eckhart joked. “I look at this guy as a complicated character, because he’s got his challenges in his daily work, but I think ultimately he’s a nice guy.”

“You know, you can take the most heinous thing and dress it up and spin it,” Eckhart continued. “Whether its smoking or alcohol, tobacco or drugs, or prescription pills, whatever it is, you can make a case for anything, that’s what debates about in school. Especially if you don’t believe it, you can take the opposite view and make a case for it. This movie and this character is all about the challenges of making people believe in something they don’t necessarily think they believe in. It has a lot to do with- you can look at television evangelists and say that about them, that’s their job, it’s kind of like prosthletizing cigarettes. Everything…one thing you do learn is if you go and really look, everything in Washington is lobby. And the movie shows it, even down to cheese. Or shoes and textiles, whatever it is, they spend millions and millions of dollars on lobbies, and these guys will fight and push anybody out of the way. I think for heightened drama he’s a tobacco lobbyist. You couldn’t get a more politically heinous person, it’s just a heightened drama.

We wondered whether Eckhart had a chance to talk to actual lobbyists while doing research for the role. “I would have, but I was doing another movie at the time, so it was difficult. I did internet research, vocal research, I listened to them, I read books about it. I know the sexy answer is, ‘Yes, I lived with them for six months’, but it didn’t happen. Everything was in the script."

But does the actor think that lobbyists serve an important purpose? “I guess they do, 'cause they’re all there, and they’re spending tons of dough,” Eckhart replied. “I don’t know much about them, but you’ll have senators and congressman who become lobbyists after their job is done, I guess it’s important to be able to say what you have to say. We’re all lobbyists, whatever you want to lobby for. If it’s where you want to go to dinner tonight or who doesn’t want to take the dog out, all you have to do is make a good argument. Now, are you a lobbyist type? That’s a different thing. Are you a guy who can withstand rejection, act like an idiot, and do whatever it takes to get that guy to say, “Yes”? To me, that’s a salesman, and I personally am not that person. I guess I am a salesman for my movies, but I am excited about them and it’s all relative, isn’t it?”

“I used to smoke through my twenties. Not so much anymore,” Eckhart told me when I asked whether he himself smoked. “I really picked it up when I started making movies. Everybody does it on film sets, more of a nervous thing, filling in time, something to do, and then you get addicted. I quit like three and a half years ago, because I consider myself to be an athletic person. I never felt good about it, I felt like every time I took a drag I had a hollow space in my chest. I think that’s why I quit."

“I quit through hypnotism, which worked for me very well,” he responded when asked how he did it. “Cary Gaynor in Santa Monica did it for me, and the guy’s a miracle worker, so I don’t smoke… but I do often cluck like a chicken.”

Thank You For Smoking opens in select cities this weekend; look for an interview with director Jason Reitman later this week.

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NEW THIS WEEK:

V FOR VENDETTA (Warner Bros.)
Starring Natalie Portman, Hugo Weaving, Stephen Rea, John Hurt, Stephen Fry, Tim Pigott-Smith, Sinead Cusack
Directed by James McTeigue (directorial debut); Written by Andy and Larry Wachowski (The Matrix trilogy, Bound, Assassins)
Genre: Action, Drama, Thriller, Comic Book
Rated R for strong violence and some language
Tagline: “Remember, remember the 5^th of November” (Oh, you mean when the movie was supposed to come out?)
Story: In the near future, London has become a fascist police state, but a vigilante hero known only as V intends to give the country back to its people by directly attacking the government and those who performed tests on him while he was imprisoned.
REVIEW

In the early ‘80s, Alan Moore and David Lloyd began a serialized graphic story in the British magazine “Warrior” about a future London run by a fascist government, a powerful tale that would set the groundwork for their careers to come. Of course, not many people outside England paid much attention to it at the time, but years later, after Moore’s run on “Swamp Thing” introduced him to a lot of new fans, V For Vendetta was picked up by DC Comics and completed as a mini-series and then collected as a graphic novel. The rights were sold to producer Joel Silver, who was coming off successive hits in the late ‘80s with Die Hard, Predator and others, and then the project lay dormant for over 15 years until it was announced in early ’05 that Larry and Andy Wachowski, coming off the conclusion of their blockbuster Matrix trilogy, would be making it their next project, writing and producing for their long time assistant director James McTeigue to direct.

What happened next was pretty shocking, because Alan Moore, who had been burnt on bad adaptations of previous works like The League of Extraordinary Gentlemen and From Hell, refused to play along with his former publisher or their parent company, denying his support of the project and requesting that his name be removed from it entirely. It was worrisome to his millions of fans, to be sure.

Fortunately, the movie went ahead with the Wachowskis bringing on board Natalie Portman, who already has a huge following of male fanboys thanks to her appearance in the Star Wars prequels and had received extra cred thanks to her recent Golden Globe win for Closer (see Star Spotlight below). Originally, she was to be joined by the little known James Purefoy in the title role, but he left the project, to be replaced by Hugo Weaving, who played Mr. Smith in the Wachowskis' Matrix films and Elrond the Elf in the three Lord of the Rings films, although you’d have to recognize him from his voice, since he spends the entire movie behind V’s trademark mask. The rest of the great British cast includes Stephen Rea, best known from his appearances in Neil Jordan’s films, and comedian Stephen Fry, best known here for Gosford Park.

Originally, the movie was scheduled to come out on the 5^th of November, which made sense for the film’s premise, but after being promoted at last year’s Comic-Con in San Diego, it was delayed until March in order to finish post-production. Warner Bros. has been using a by-the-books marketing campaign on this politically charged comic book film, following the Comic-Con preview, with a series of inventive posters that give the film a different look and feel than last year’s Constantine and Sin City, both which grossed over $75 million last year. There hasn’t been a strong movie for guys in quite some time, and that combined with the premise and the Wachowskis' involvement should help this do slightly better than both of those. Warner Bros is opening the movie in over 3,000 theatres including dozens of IMAX theatres, much like they did with last year’s Batman Begins and Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, both $200 million hits for WB, although of course, fewer people will know of V For Vendetta then those two well known characters. Expect it to do decent business over the weekend, and not just Friday, which might be a hair slower due to the St. Patricks Day holiday.

Why I Should See It: Natalie Portman and Hugo Weaving recreating one of Alan Moore’s finest works, which still has a surprising amount of relevance over 20 years later.
Why Not: It doesn’t have the full support of Alan Moore.
Projection: $33 to 36 million opening weekend with the potential to become the first movie of the year to hit the $100 million mark.

SHE’S THE MAN (DreamWorks)
Starring Amanda Bynes, Channing Tatum, David Cross, Laura Ramsey, Jonathan Sadowski, Robert Hoffman, James Snyder, Alex Breckenridge, Amanda Crew, Jessica Lucas, James Kirk, Emily Perkins, Vinnie Jones, Robert Torti, Julie Hagerty, David Cross
Directed by Andy Fickman (Who’s Your Daddy?); Written by Ewan and Jack Leslie, Karen McCullah Lutz and Kirsten Smith (Ella Enchanted, Legally Blonde, 10 Things I Hate About You)
Genre: Comedy, Romance, Teen
Rated PG-13 for some sexual material
Tagline: “Everybody has a secret... Duke wants Olivia who likes Sebastian who is really Viola whose brother is dating Monique so she hates Olivia who's with Duke to make Sebastian jealous who is really Viola who's crushing on Duke who thinks she's a guy...” (I’m not sh*tting you. This is the tagline. How the hell do they even fit that on a poster!?)
Story: Viola Johnson (Amanda Bynes) enters a prestigious boarding school disguised as her brother, so that he can run off to London to become a musician. Unfortunately, she immediately falls for her male roommate, who already has a crush on a girl who now has a crush on the male version of Viola.

What’s even stranger about that convoluted premise is that this teen romantic comedy that claims to borrow the plot of Shakespeare’s comedy “Twelfth Night” looks more like a remake of the ‘80s comedy “classic” Just One of the Guys. This also does the inverse of the year’s two biggest opening comedies Big Momma’s House 2 and Madea’s Family Reunion, since this time it’s a cute young woman disguising herself as a guy, and surprise, surprise, it’s former teen sensation Amanda Bynes doing drag! The comic actress was the star of her own Nickelodeon show “The Amanda Show” before making the transition to movies with early films like Big Fat Liar and What A Girl Wants, the latter which came out almost three years ago. Since then, she provided a voice for last year’s computer animated Robots, but hasn’t been seen much otherwise. Her previous movie Lovewrecked still hasn’t seen the light of day, although The Weinstein Company is supposed to release it this year. In the meantime, this familiar-looking film was written by two first-time male screenwriter, before it was touched-up by the two female writers of movies like Legally Blonde and Ella Enchanted, and the whole thing was directed by the guy behind the straight-to-video dog Who’s Your Daddy? The marketing and promotion has been fairly weak as DreamWorks tries to get their house in order post the Paramount buy-out. Bynes’ previous two movies only made $11 million opening weekend, but Bynes’ fanbase isn’t nearly as strong as it was thanks to the likes of Hilary Duff and Lindsay Lohan, who came along and stole her glory. While this looks like a strong comedy premise, which won’t have any crossover audience with V For Vendetta, it’ll have problems convincing its target audience that it’s worth seeing in theatres.

Why I Should See It: Amanda Bynes is probably funnier than Hilary Duff, Mandy Moore and all of her competition put together.
Why Not: Let’s face it. She’s no Lindsay Lohan when it comes to popularity, and this movie was probably better when it was called Just One of the Guys.
Projection: $8 to 10 million opening weekend on its way to around $25 million total.

FIND ME GUILTY (Yari Film Group Releasing)
Starring Vin Diesel, Peter Dinklage, Linus Roache, Ron Silver, Annabella Sciorra, Alex Rocco
Directed by Sidney Lumet (Dog Day Afternoon, Serpico, Murder on the Orient Express, Gloria); Written by Sidney Lumet, T.J. Mancini, Robert J. McCrea
Genre: Crime, Drama, Comedy
Rated R for strong language and some violence
Tagline: “Sometimes the best defense… is a wiseguy.” (But I thought this starred Vin Diesel.)
Story: After being jailed for drug charges, Jackie DiNorscio (Vin Diesel), a wisecracking thug and part of the New Jersey based Lucchese crime family, decides to defend himself in a federal RICO case against his family rather than testifying against them in order to shorten his own sentence.
REVIEW

Just in time to capitalize on the return of “The Sopranos,” this real-life crime comedy is a bit of a departure for actor Vin Diesel… because he has hair!! Okay, well there’s that, but it’s also a very different film, because it gives him a chance to do a bit of drama, as well as continue the comedic stylings he showed in The Pacifier. The story is based on the transcripts of one of the longest cases in U.S. court history, which had Diesel’s Jackie DiNorscio defending himself in a case against his crime family for 21 months. (Ironically, that’s also how long it’s been since the last season of “The Sopranos.”) in the case against his crime family for almost 21 months. This is also the first new film in almost six years from director Sidney Lumet, the man behind serious ‘70s crime films like Dog Day Afternoon and Serpico, who was nominated for five Oscars, but never won until he was given an honorary Oscar last year. The movie won’t be for everyone, definitely not the fans of Vin’s action movies or The Pacifier, but it’s an interesting story done in a very different way, and those who enjoy movies like My Cousin Vinny and My Blue Heaven should be able to appreciate the humor. Opening in over 400 theatres, it will be the biggest release from the new distribution company set up by big-wig producer Bob Yari, although it doesn’t have the type of marketing budget to really help people know about it.

Why I Should See It: The return of Sidney Lumet, a legendary director, doing something different.
Why Not: Because it can’t decide whether to be a courtroom drama or a tongue-in-cheek comedy, and Vin with hair? Not a good look.
Projection: $1 to 2 million opening weekend on its way to less than $4 million total.

DON’T COME KNOCKING (Sony Pictures Classics)
Starring Jessica Lange, Sam Shepard, Tim Roth, Gabriel Mann, Sarah Polley, Fairuza Balk, Eva Marie Sain
Directed by Wim Wenders (Wings of Desire, Until the End of the World, Paris, Texas, Beyond the Clouds; Written by Sam Shepard (Paris Texas, True West, Zabriskie Point) and Wim Wenders
Genre: Drama
Rated R for language and brief nudity
Story: Veteran actor Howard Spence (Sam Shepard) walks off the set of the Western he’s filming to trek across Nevada and visit his elderly mother. He learns from her that a woman he met in Butte, Montana while shooting a film (Jessica Lange) ended up having his son, so he returns there while being followed by a private detective. Turns out that his son (Gabriel Mann) is now a forlorn country singer not to happy to meet his father.

22 years after making Paris, Texas, German master filmmaker Wim Wenders reunites with that film’s screenwriter Sam Shepard, for another film about the modern American West, this time starring Shepard as a Western actor trying to reconnect with his family. Sure, it sounds a lot like the story from Paris, Texas, but it shows how both Wenders and Shepard have progressed, and it marks the return of Oscar-winning legend Jessica Lange, and a nice role for the underrated Canadian actress Sarah Polley.

Why I Should See It: The first collaboration between the makers of Paris, Texas in over 20 years with an equally impressive cast.
Why Not: While the resulting film looks beautiful, it’s pretty boring.

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STAR SPOTLIGHT: Natalie Portman

Of course, most people will know Natalie Portman from her appearance in George Lucas’ three Star Wars prequels, which grossed over a billion dollars just in the United States, but the 25-year-old Israel-born actress got a lot of cred in 2004 from her appearance in Zack Braf’s indie comedy Garden State followed by winning a Golden Globe and getting an Oscar nomination by playing a flighty stripper in Mike Nichols’ adaptation of the play Closer with Julia Roberts and Jude Law. Of course, it didn’t hurt that she followed that up with the finale to the Star Wars pre-trilogy Revenge of the Sith, which grossed significantly more money last year than any other movie.

Then again, it’s all status quo for the actress who got her start at the age of 12 by appearing in Luc Besson’s near-classic action thriller, The Professional, and many long-time fans love her for the quirky role she played a few years later in Beautiful Girls. In general, Portman has always tried to do a couple smaller movies in between Star Wars films, including 1999’s Anywhere But Here with Susan Sarandon and Where the Heart Is with Ashley Judd, two movies that helped Portman gain a more feminine audience.

Still, it took some time before Portman could be considered a bankable celebrity, and this week’s V For Vendetta is going to put that to the test, especially considering that she shaved off her gorgeous locks for the part.

Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Star Wars: Episode III Revenge of the Sith	5/20/05	3,661	$50.01	$108.44	$29,619	$380.26
Closer	12/3/04	476		$7.71	$16,193	$33.99
Garden State	7/28/04	652	$3.50	$3.02	$4,633	$26.78
Star Wars: Episode II Attack of the Clones	5/16/02	3,161	$30.14	$80.03	$25,317	$302.18
Where the Heart Is	4/28/00	2,437		$8.29	$3,402	$33.65
Anywhere But Here	11/12/99	1,673		$5.61	$3,353	$18.65
Star Wars: Episode I The Phantom Menace	5/21/99	2,970	$41.76	$64.81	$21,822	$431.07
Beautiful Girls	2/9/96	752		$2.76	$3,670	$10.52
The Professional	11/18/94	1,158		$5.31	$4,585	$19.25

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THIS WEEK’S “GUEST-PERT”:

This week, I’m inducting my good pal Pete Kilmer, managing partner of Indianapolis’ own Downtown Comics (if you’re in the area, swing on by!) to answer a couple questions about this week’s comic book based action film, V For Vendetta.

“I’m pretty intrigued instead of excited,” he told me when I asked whether he was looking forward to the movie. “That may have to do with the failure of the other adaptations of Alan Moore’s work into film. Let’s face it, From Hell was just fair--if it wasn’t for Johnny Depp and the other actors in the film, it wouldn’t be nearly as tolerable as it is--and the mess that is League of Extraordinary Gentlemen is just a crime. That being said, this is the Wachowskis behind this project. The track record for the boys, as far as I am concerned, isn’t too bad, so I’m going into it with an open mind and hoping for the best, which is what I do when I go to movies in general.”

I was also interested in knowing what the buzz was like at the comic shop he runs. “It’s there, but not on an X-men or Spider-Man/Superman level,” he told me. “People are hopeful for it, and I hear a lot of discussion about it from the over-40 crowd and the college crowd as well. I hear a lot of “Yeah I’ll see at some point” kind of talk, but no one has said to me that they are going to hit the midnight showing. I’m assuming that people are thinking the Wachowskis are really the directors due to the promotional campaign that’s been on television, but since the director is one of the Wachowskis’ inner circle, I think the quality will be there.”

“We stocked ourselves 15-deep on the V for Vendetta trade at my store location, and I think we did that at all 4 locations here in Indianapolis, and we’ve been moving them fairly well,” Pete said when I asked him about how the trade was doing at the shop, and I wondered if he’d been getting any non-comic book readers in the store asking about the trade or the movie. “Only if they are coming in to accompany the person who is here to buy comics,” he said. “I have sold a couple of trade to the ‘friends’ that have come in who have seen the trade paperback, and I have friends or family members who’ve emailed or called me asking “What the heck is this movie about?”

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ALSO IN LIMITED RELEASE:

THE ZODIAC (THINKFilm) is the first of two movies this year that looks at the late ‘60s serial killings that rocked the Bay Area. This film from Alex and Kelly Bulkley, which opens in L.A., San Fran and other areas, stars Justin Chambers as a police detective trying to solve the murders and find the killer, when his son (Rory Culkin) is dragged into it.

The Italian Oscar nominee DON’T TELL (Lionsgate) is Cristina Comencini’s drama about a young Italian voice actress who finds herself having nightmares, which point back to a terrible incident from her childhood. It opens in New York, L.A. and San Fran on Friday. REVIEW

The Steve Harvey concert film DON’T TRIP… HE AIN’T THROUGH WITH ME YET! (CodeBlack Entertainment) was shot at the Bishop TD Jakes’ annual Megafest where Harvey uses the church as the basis for his routine. It opens in select cities before its DVD release on May 2.

Two documentaries open at the Cinema Village. THE BIG QUESTION (THINKFilm) features interviews members of the cast and crew of Mel Gibson’s The Passion of The Christ about their feelings on spirituality, faith and a higher power, while Richard Ladkani’s THE DEVIL’S MINER (First Run Features) is about two young orphaned brothers working in the dangerous Bolivian mines, who give up their Catholic beliefs when they put their hands in the fate of the devil.

Michael Traeger’s THE AMATEURS (Bauer Martinez Studios) is a comedy featuring an all-star cast, including Jeff Bridges and Tim Blake Nelson, about a smalltown that bands together to make a porn film.

BEYOND HONOR (International Film Circuit) by Varun Khanna is a shocking tale of a young Egyptian-American girl living in Southern California, who is torn between her two cultures.

CHURCH BALL (Halestorm Entertainment) is a comedy about a team of misfits playing in a church-sponsored basketball tourney against the much better champions in order to win the coveted championship title. It opens in Utah, Alaska, Idaho and Nevada.

SUMMER STORM (Here! Films/Regent Releasing) is a German drama about two friends on the rowing team who suddenly discover they have feelings for each other. (Insert obligatory Brokeback Mountain reference.) It opens in California.

Lastly, there’s TAKE MY EYES (New Yorker Films), a romantic drama from Spain’s Icíar Bollaín about a young mother named Pilar who runs away from home taking her young song Juan. It opens at the Angelika in New York.

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THIS WEEKEND IN BOX OFFICE HISTORY:

Although March isn’t a particularly impressive month for movies to open, this weekend has seen a number of significant hits with three of the top 10 March openers coming out in the middle of the month, including the highest grossing March opener, Ice Age, which made $46 million its opening weekend on its way to $176 million. (The sequel to the hit film arrives in theatres in two weeks.)

Last year, DreamWorks released the sequel The Ring Two, which made almost twice as much as the original its opening weekend, but ended up making less in total and two years ago, Universal had a breakout horror hit with the remake of George Romero’s Dawn of the Dead remake, which did most of its business opening weekend.

Exactly six years ago, Erin Brockovich, starring Julia Roberts, had a fortuitous opening that coincided with St. Patrick’s Day, for which she’d win her first and only Oscar. Other movies that did moderately well in the third weekend of March include Steven Seagal’s Exit Wounds, the video game adaptation of Resident Evil, Stephen King’s Dreamcatcher, and the buddy cop comedy Showtime, which paired Eddie Murphy with Robert DeNiro.

Last year, Disney’s Ice Princess opened in around 2,500 theatres and made less than $7 million, which might be the most viable comparison for this weekend’s She’s the Man. This was also the weekend where Cuba Gooding’s legendary Boat Trip opened.

Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Ice Age	3/15/02	3,316	$46.30	$13,966	$176.39
The Ring Two	3/18/05	3,332	$35.07	$10,524	$75.89
Erin Brockovich	3/17/00	2,845	$28.14	$9,891	$125.55
Dawn of the Dead	3/19/04	2,745	$26.72	$9,735	$58.89
Exit Wounds	3/16/01	2,830	$18.49	$6,532	$51.76
Resident Evil	3/15/02	2,528	$17.71	$7,004	$39.53
Dreamcatcher	3/21/03	2,945	$15.03	$5,103	$33.69
Showtime	3/15/02	2,917	$15.01	$5,142	$37.95
Enemy at the Gates	3/16/01	1,509	$13.81	$9,152	$51.40
Forces of Nature	3/19/99	2,058	$13.51	$6,565	$52.88
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind	3/19/04	1,353	$8.18	$6,042	$34.13
Ice Princess	3/18/05	2,501	$6.81	$2,722	$24.38

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LET’S LOOK AT THE NUMBERS - final update 3.16

It’s not hard to figure out that the obvious winner of the weekend will be the Wachowski-penned adaptation of Alan Moore and David Lloyd’s V For Vendetta, starring Natalie Portman and Hugo “Master of the Trilogy” Weaving, but the question will be how much can it possibly make? Over $30 million? More than $35 million? Could it even beat the March opening record for Ice Age? Well, maybe not that much, but it should do very well as comic book, genre and action fans flock to see it opening weekend with a good chance of legs, although it may have trouble getting basketball fans away from March Madness on the weekends. Further down the charts, Amanda Bynes returns to the movies in the cross-dressing romantic comedy She’s the Man, which will probably have a hard time making a mark against last week’s hit romantic comedy Failure to Launch and some of the other family films. The best it can do will be fourth place, although it hasn’t been very well promoted to the audience that might be interested in it. Expect Failure to Launch and The Shaggy Dog to split up the rest of the movie-going audiences, and though the St. Patrick’s Day holiday might lessen the Friday box office, expect things to pick up across the board over the weekend. Also, look for the new Sidney Lumet courtroom dramedy Find Me Guilty, which opens in around 400 theatres, to end up on the outskirts of the Top 10.

TW	LW	Title	Weekend (in millions)	Change	# Of Theaters	Average	Week
1	New	V For Vendetta	$35.5	N/A	3,365	$10,550	1
2	1	Failure to Launch	$15.0	-38%	3,117	$4,774	2
3	2	The Shaggy Dog	$10.6	-35%	3,501	$3,028	2
4	New	She's the Man	$9.0	N/A	2,550	$3,451	1
5	3	The Hills Have Eyes	$8.0	-49%	2,621	$2,939	2
6	4	16 Blocks	$4.5	-39%	2,666	$1,837	3
7	6	Eight Below	$3.5	-37%	2,603	$1,346	5
8	5	Madea's Family Reunion	$2.7	-52%	1,403	$2,000	4
9	9	The Pink Panther	$2.2	-40%	1,852	$1,100	6
10	7	Aquamarine	$2.0	-46%	1,869	$978	3
11	New	Find Me Guilty	$1.6	N/A	439	$3,645	1
			Est. Weekend Total $94.70	Est. Avg. Drop-Off -44%		Est. Average PTA $3,000

Next week, Clive Owen sets up the perfect bank robbery in Inside Man with Denzel Washington and Jodie Foster trying to catch him, video games get nasty in Stay Alive, and could it be? Larry the Cable Guy: Health Inspector? God help us all.

Copyright 2006 Edward Douglas

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