ComingSoon.net - The Weekend Warrior

Your Weekly Guide to New Movies for January 13, 2006
By Edward Douglas -

Greetings and welcome back to the NEW Weekend Warrior, your weekly guide to the weekend’s new movies. Tune in every Tuesday for the latest look at the upcoming weekend, and then check back on Friday for final projections based on actual theatre counts.

First of all, thanks to everyone for the feedback I received at the last week. Rest assured that despite the changes, I do have a lot of respect and appreciation for anyone who regularly reads this column, and every comment will be read and considered for future developments.

THE BATTLE CRY
(The opinions expressed in this section, and actually this whole column, are those of the Weekend Warrior alone, and not that of ComingSoon.net)

Pretty wild stuff. Just two weeks after New Year’s Day, and we already have another four-day weekend full of new movies, and yet, there doesn’t seem to be anything among them that could be deemed as a must-see film. Sure, someone out there may find a few of this weekend’s offerings harmless enough to shell out money for, but there really is nothing opening over the next few weeks that I’d see if I had to pay to see them. Sure, I’m curious about whether Underworld: Evolution came out better than the original movie or to see how some of upcoming horror remakes turned out, but let’s face it, the fact they’re being released in January, February or March doesn’t give us much hope because we know how the studios think… why waste good movies on a season where no one goes to see movies? Or maybe that way of thinking is changing.

Most critics consider January the month where studios release all of their bad movies because nothing could possibly be as good as the Oscar caliber films they saw in December. Then again, once the weather starts getting cold outside and there’s nothing better to do, people will go to see whatever movie is playing, regardless of quality. It also becomes obvious that the people going to see movies year round, are generally seeing a lot of movies, because they go to the movies instinctively, like zombies, because it wouldn’t be the weekend if they didn’t spend a couple hours in a dark theatre with a bunch of people they didn’t know. Of course, the Weekend Warrior has always gone to the theatre during weekdays when they’re less crowded, and even now, I spend most of the movie writing about movies rather than seeing them.

Because of this, it’s a difficult month to be a box office analyst, because you never know which way things might go. Movies that look terrible do well and movies that look harmless enough don’t. The last few years have definitely been bucking the trend of it being a dead season, as last year plenty of third-string movies were released and did decent business from White Noise to Hide and Seek and even the Ice Cube family comedy Are We There Yet? Most of them looked pretty bad—admittedly, I didn’t bother seeing the last two of those—and they all did okay. But then how many people remembered any of those movies once Star Wars: Episode III came out in May and there was a rush of summer movies? And seriously, did anyone who saw Along Came Polly think that it was worthy of the $80 million it made in theatres?

The real question is what it will take to change the media view of January being a month for bad movies? Certainly, the amount of money these movies are making won’t do it, because every time a movie like Are We There Yet? does well, studios are ready jump on the next movie that looks even remotely similar. Same can be said for a movie like Hostel. And of course, we’ll go see them because we have nothing better to do that weekend.

Anyway, if you have any opinion on anything said here, feel free to drop me a line. Next week, I think I’ll talk about controversy in movies, and why it seems so popular these days.

THE CHOSEN ONE

ON THE OUTS (Polychrome Pictures)
Starring Anny Mariano, Judy Marte, Paola Mendoza, Dominc Colón, Clarence “Don” Hutchinson, Flaco Navaja, Lee Brock, Autumn Collier, Ana “Rok” Garcia, Levon Fickling, Kamila Forbes
Directed by Lori Silverbush and Michael Skonick; Written by Lori Silverbush
(Note: No sooner had I written up this movie as my pick of the week, it was moved until next week, but I'm just going to keep it here as an early preview.)

On the Outs is exactly the type of movie for which I created this section, because it’s the type of movie that will slip under the radar of those who might be the most interested in seeing it. While the digitally shot film isn’t pretty or slick, it has the type of emotional resonance that surpasses its low-fi production values. Lori Silverbush’s drama looks at the tough lives of three inner-city women living in New Jersey, who are struggling with various aspects of the drug trade. It’s a work of fiction based on testimonials by real women, which is probably why it rings so true. Like a street version of “Requiem for a Dream,” you get pulled into the lives of these women and how they’ve been affected in different ways by drugs, making it a great platform to showcase a number of strong young actresses. The standout is Judy Marte as Oz, a tough teen drug dealer who has been in and out of women’s correctional facilities while dealing with a mentally challenged brother and an addicted mother. The even tougher story belongs to Paola Mendoza as Marisol, a crack-addicted teen mother who loses her daughter and then has to fight to get her back. The third story involves a younger teen named Suzette (Anny Mariano), who gets pregnant at the hands of a slick drug dealer, played by another actor worth keeping an eye on, Clarence “Don” Hutchinson. While the film doesn’t look great, fighting some of the same visual problems as other digitally-shot low budget films, the script and performance are worthwhile, and it’s nice to see a film that doesn’t resort to pat Hollywood endings. Re-released in New York and opening in a few other cities on Wednesday the 18th, On the Outs is the type of non-patronizing film that should be shown in public schools as a warning about the dangers of drugs. You can also check out the first eight minutes of the film by clicking on the title above.

NEW THIS WEEK:

Martin Luther King Jr. weekend is a bit crowded with a bunch of third string movies, none of which look very exciting.

GLORY ROAD (Touchstone Pictures)
Starring Josh Lucas, Derek Luke, Mehcad Brooks, Emily Deschanel, Al Shearer, Tatyana Ali, Jon Voight
Directed by James Gartner; Written by Christopher Cleveland and Bettina Gilois
Genre: Sports, Drama
Rated PG (for racial issues including violence and epithets, and mild language)
Tagline: “Winning changes everything.”
Story: Tells the story of how Texas Western coach Don Haskins (Josh Lucas) took the first college basketball team with an all-black starting line-up on to the NCAA championship in 1966.
Mini-Review: While this starts out much like every other sports drama, it's a good story and one that deserves to be told. The film starts out a bit uneven and Josh Lucas isn't particularly strong, but wisely, the film doesn't spend very much time focusing on him, instead showing off some amazing talent in its mostly little known African-American cast. The last 20 minutes of the film are so riveting that it's easy to forget some of the by-the-books aspects of the film up until that point. Make sure to stay through the credits to see the real players talk about the big game. Rating: 7/10

Continuing Disney’s tradition of real-life sports movies, the studio has once again teamed with producer Jerry Bruckheimer who brought them the 2000 Denzel Washington hit Remember the Titans. This is an interesting story, because it shows the early days of black students being allowed to play college basketball, in the years right after the Civil Rights Act of 1964, which couldn’t make it more perfect to be released on the holiday weekend that celebrates Martin Luther King, Jr. Of course, today, African-Americans play such a huge part in the sport that this could be seen as a precursor to last year’s MLK weekend hit Coach Carter, and it’s pretty obvious that Touchstone Pictures hopes that others make the connection and see this movie, too. Unfortunately, this film’s only star, Josh Lucas, doesn’t have quite the box office draw of Mr. Samuel L. Jackson, as seen by the failure of his last film Stealth. That makes this somewhat of a big film for Lucas to prove himself, as it does for the film's director James Gartner, a commercial director who makes his first major feature film with Glory Road. With the strong backing from Walt Disney Studios and Jerry Bruckheimer, both of whom have had success with this type of film, it seems like this PG film might find a large audience of those looking for something as educational as it is entertaining, especially with its connections to this weekend’s honored Civil Rights leader. Wisely, Touchstone Pictures gave the film a Saturday night sneak preview, which should help raise awareness, as should the regular commercials run during basketball games where fans of the sport will see them.

Why I Should See It: Looks like another solid sports drama from Jerry Bruckheimer and Disney.
Why Not: It looks too much like Coach Carter set forty years in the past, only without Samuel L. Jackson.
Projection: $14 to 17 million over the four-day weekend on its way to around $45 million

HOODWINKED (Weinstein Co.)
Starring the voices of Anne Hathaway, Glenn Close, Jim Belushi, Patrick Warburton, Anthony Anderson, David Ogden Stiers, Xzibit, Chazz Palminteri, Andy Dick
Written and directed by Cory Edwards, Tony Leech, Todd Edwards
Genre: Animated, Comedy, Family
Rated PG (for some mild action and thematic elements)
Tagline: “Trouble in the Hood”
Story: The fairy tale of Red Riding Hood is given the “Rashomon” treatment as it’s turned into a crime story about detectives investigating the real incidents behind the story of a girl and her granny terrorized by a big bad wolf….or so it seems.
Mini-Review: “Red Riding Hood meets Rashomon” pretty much says it all, and while there are a few funny moments and characters, some of the gags and references seem dated and overused, particularly in Granny’s story, which mixes XXX and The Matrix. Despite the impressive voice cast, there really aren’t any standouts. That said, this is harmless fun with enough things that the kiddies will enjoy, and it’s not quite as painful as other recent attempts at cashing in on the computer animated market. Rating: 6/10

As well as the computer-animated genre has done for Walt Disney Pictures and their frequent partner Pixar Studios, it would seem obvious that after leaving the confines of that company, Harvey and Bob Weinstein would want to get into the computer animated game themselves. Yup, it’s beginning to sound like the story of DreamWorks all over again. Essentially, the three men behind Hoodwinked made it independently for $15 million when they convinced investors that taking a classic fairy tale and giving it the spin of a modern police-crime spin was an original idea whose time had come. They quickly assembled an impressive voice cast including Anne Hathaway, best known for Disney’s Princess Diaries films and Miramax’s Ella Enchanted, and Glenn Close as her Granny, and made a film that was edgier than Disney’s animated offerings, and not just a dig at Disney like DreamWorks’ Shrek. Sure enough, the Weinstein Co. offered to distribute it, and they’re giving it a moderate release along the lines of Jonah: A VeggiesTales Movie, which ended up making around $25 million in the fall of ’02. Of course, Hoodwinked doesn’t have the built-in audience that Jonah had, thanks to its series of successful Christian-themed video tapes, so it’ll have to find an audience based on their awareness of the original fairy tale. Originally, this was supposed to open over Christmas where it might have fared better, but after a brief Oscar run, the Weinsteins decided to get it away from Disney’s Chronicles of Narnia and move it into a weekend where family-related fare has often done well (see below). Unfortunately, Narnia has been holding up so well that it may still have a problem making much of a mark.

Why I Should See It: This is a fun and harmless modern spin on a classic fairy tale with some fun moments that both kids and parents should appreciate.
Why Not: Its spoof of XXX gives you an idea how old and dated some of the gags are.
Projection: $8 to 10 million over the four-day weekend on its way to around $30 million total.

LAST HOLIDAY (Paramount Pictures)
Starring Queen Latifah, LL Cool J, Timothy Hutton, Gerard Depardieu, Alicia Witt, Giancarlo Esposito
Directed by Wayne Wang (Maid in Manhattan, The Joy Luck Club); Written by Jeffrey Price and Peter S. Seaman (Wild Wild West, How the Grinch Stole Christmas)
Genre: Comedy, Romance
Rated PG-13 (for some sexual reference)
Tagline: “She always thought she was somebody…and she was.”
Story: Queen Latifah play Georgina Byrd, a New Orleans saleswoman who learns that she only has a few weeks to live, so she decides to use her remaining time to take a dream vacation to a European resort. Once there, she starts taking on all sorts of risks and challenges because she really has nothing to lose.

This is exactly the type of movie I was talking about in “The Battle Cry,” the type of stupid high concept comedy premise that somehow gets greenlit, and gets a respected director and a well-known star. Then again, this remake of a 1950’s Alec Guiness comedy may be a better vehicle for Queen Latifah than her last movie Taxi, which had that pesky Jimmy Fallon weighing her down. After all, Latifah has built up a steady fanbase of women (see below) who might be interested in seeing this sort of escapist romantic comedy, even if the commercials make it look more like a slapstick comedy than Under the Tuscan Sun. Either way, it certainly doesn’t look any worse than Martin Lawrence’s buddy comedy National Security, which did okay over Martin Luther King weekend, and Latifah has been teamed with director Wayne Wang, who helped revive the career of Jennifer Lopez with the romantic comedy Maid in Manhattan. The movie also offers strong co-stars like fellow rapper L.L. Cool J and the ubiquitous Frenchman Gerard Depardieu, who’ve both done their share of this type of comedy. It doesn’t seem like a very strong premise, but maybe Latifah can pull it off and sell it to the women whose only other offerings are at least three weeks old. If nothing else, reviews have been pretty good so far, so maybe it’s not nearly as bad as it looks.

Why I Should See It: Queen Latifah is a strong performer who has enough charm and personality to pull off a premise like this.
Why Not: Her choice of comedies since Bringing Down the House has not exactly been something to brag about.
Projection: $10 to 13 million over the four-day weekend on its way to $36 million, which is about what Latifah’s last two movies made.

TRISTAN & ISOLDE (20^th Century Fox)
Starring James Franco, Sophia Myles, Rufus Sewell, David Patrick O'Hara, Mark Strong, Henry Cavill, Bronagh Gallagher, Dexter Fletcher
Directed by Kevin Reynolds (The Count of Monte Cristo, Waterworld, Robin Hood: Prince of Thieves); Written by Dean Georgaris (Tomb Raider: Cradle of Life, The Manchurian Candidate)
Genre: Drama, Romance, Historical
Rated PG-13
Tagline: “Before Romeo and Juliet, there was….” (Originality?)
Story: Tristan (James Franco), England’s greatest knight in the war against the tyrannical Irish King Donnchadh, ends up falling for an Irish beauty when she nurses him back to only, only to learn that it is the king’s daughter Isolde (Sophia Myles). When the hand of Isolde is put up in a tournament, Tristan is told by his own king to win her for him, forcing him to question his loyalties as they must keep their love a secret.

Unless you’re a fan of opera, you’re not likely to have heard of this wartime romance that inspired directors Ridley and Tony Scott to produce a film based on the Celtic story, but the most famous incarnation of the story is probably the 19^th Century opera by Richard Wagner. This new historic epic is not being targeted towards the older male audiences that normally flock to this sort of movie, instead being a movie sold as a romance for younger teen girls. It stars James Franco, who is best known for playing Harry Osborn in the two Spider-Man movies, but hasn’t proven to be much of a draw otherwise, and Sophia Myles, a little known British actress. It’s also the first film in four years for director Kevin Reynolds, who helmed 2002’s The Count of Monte Cristo, as well as Kevin Costner’s Robin Hood, which this movie most closely resembles. Oddly, Fox completely forgot to promote this movie until last week when they started running commercials, including one that looks like a music video for Gavin McGraw (guess they couldn’t get Bryan Adams), until it gets to the tacked-on promo at the end. While this romantic epic might win the hearts of romantic teen girls, it may be a little too late to get any of them into theatre without a big name to sell it.

Why I Should See It: The original tale is a terrific romantic story that certainly would make an interesting movie
Why Not: This looks like the type of mushy historical drama that Hollywood is great at making, rather than a solid war epic like Gladiator or Kingdom of Heaven.
Projection: $4 to 6 million over the four-day weekend on its way to around $15 million.

THE STAR OF THE WEEK: Queen Latifah

I probably could have picked Josh Lucas this week and had just as much to say, but the reason I picked Queen Latifah was because the 35-year-old Renaissance woman, born Dana Elaine Owens, is far more than just an actress, having had success both as a rapper and a talk show host.

I still remember the first time I heard her 1989 album “All Hail the Queen,” and I was blown away both by what was done musically, but more about how she took a strong stance as a woman in the heavily male-dominated world of hip hop. Her success led to a small role in Spike Lee’s Jungle Fever and roles in urban films like House Party 2, Juice and Set It Off, before taking small roles in Hollywood flicks like Michael Crichton’s Sphere and The Bone Collector with Denzel Washington and Angelina Jolie.

Latifah took some time off from movies while hosting her syndicated talk show from 1999 to 2001, and that helped raise awareness of the actress among Americans, so when she returned for the romantic comedy Brown Sugar, she had more fans waiting to see her in a more prominent role. Later that year, she played a key role as Mama Morton in the movie musical Chicago, a performance that got her a Golden Globe nomination and then an Oscar nomination in 2003, which would become the biggest year of her career. Although she lost the Oscar to her co-star Catherine Zeta-Jones, Latifah then co-starred with Steve Martin in Bringing Down the House, which went on to become her second biggest hit, followed a few months later by a featured cameo in Scary Movie 3. She was also given a role in Barbershop 2 that would be spun off into her own movie in 2005.

In 2004, she released the critically acclaimed “Dana Owens Album” performing covers of jazz classics in hopes of reaching her new audience of fans. Unfortunately, that same year she produced and starred in the Labor Day dud The Cookout and then teamed with Jimmy Fallon for the English remake of Luc Besson’s Taxi, a movie trashed so badly by critics that there was little way for it to recover. Besides that poorly received spin-off Beauty Shop and her commercials for Cover Girl make-up, we didn't really see much of Latifah last year, but now she’s back in Last Holiday, another comedy with her in the main featured role without a male comic star to either help or hurt, which may be good, since it allows her to stand on her own. Beauty Shop showed that Latifah didn’t really have the clout to carry a movie on her own, and it’s unlikely that she’ll ever have another cross-market hit on a par with Bringing Down the House, so it’s likely that Last Holiday will bring in pretty much the same audience as her last two movies.

Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Beauty Shop	4/1/05	2,659	$3.85	$12.80	$4,814	$36.31
Taxi	10/8/04	3,001	$0.62	$12.03	$4,009	$36.61
The Cookout	9/3/04	1,303		$6.22	$4,773	$11.54
Scary Movie 3	10/25/03	3,505		$48.11	$13,727	$109.94
Bringing Down the House	3/7/03	2,801		$31.10	$11,104	$132.68
Chicago	2/7/03	1,841	$53.02	$10.79	$5,859	$170.68
Brown Sugar	10/11/02	1,372		$10.74	$7,827	$27.36
The Bone Collector	11/5/99	2,590		$16.71	$6,452	$66.49
Sphere	2/13/98	2,814		$14.45	$5,135	$37.30
Set It Off	11/8/96	1,014	$3.00	$8.81	$8,688	$36.06

THIS WEEK’S “GUEST-PERT”:

Since I’m not really much of a sports fan, I decided to turn to my buddy Tom “CelticKliq” Tinneny to see what he thought of Disney’s new basketball movie, Glory Road. He’s actually more of a fan of college basketball than the NBA, so it seemed like he might know something about the real story on which the movie was based. “I am familiar with the Texas Western story,” he told me. “I don’t know all the details, but I am aware of the dominance of this team, and I’m interested in seeing this team’s off-the-court troubles, as well. Hopefully, all this will translate into a worthwhile movie."

But what makes Tom such an expert on sports movies, you ask? “If there is a sports movie out, I will go see it,” he said. “As for movies that have come out more recently, Remember the Titans was great. Coach Carter was okay, but nothing special. Bad News Bears and The Longest Yard were remakes that should have not been made, and I really enjoyed Two for the Money.”

“Basketball is my favorite sport, so naturally I would have a lot of favorite basketball movies,” he went on. “If I had to name a favorite I would choose Hoop Dreams. I know it’s more of a documentary than a motion picture, but I think it’s the best basketball movie out there. Some favorite honorable mentions include White Men Can't Jump, He Got Game, Space Jam and Blue Chips.” (Wow! No Hoosiers?)

I also wondered what Tom thought about the reteaming of Disney and producer Jerry Bruckheimer and whether that might affect his desires to see the movie. “Actually, I have a positive reaction to Bruckheimer being a part of Glory Road,” he replied. “While his movies are not Oscar worthy, they are more often than not, fun and exciting, and I really find Disney’s sports movies to be a worthwhile experience. Disney always seems to portrait the proper feeling, emotion and other dynamics associated with sports. In my opinion, they really hit a home run with Miracle, The Rookie and Remember the Titans. I think the main reason for their continued success at the box office was the positive word of mouth.”

And Josh Lucas? “I think Josh Lucas is a great actor, and I think it’s important for a sports movie to have a strong leading actor,” he told me. “Washington, Russell, and Quaid all brought an important presence with them to the screen, which really helps the story and viewing experience.”

Well, I’m glad I asked him, and I actually went with Tom to see Glory Road last night, so check out my mini-review later this week. (For next week’s column, I’m looking for an Underworld superfan, so if you’ve seen that movie five, six or more times, feel free to drop me a line!)

ALSO IN LIMITED RELEASE:

Trish Doolan’s romantic comedy APRIL’S SHOWER is about the wacky hijinks at a bridal shower put on by a chef for her former lover, who left her to marry a man though most of the attendees aren’t aware of the relationship until it comes out at the shower. A romantic comedy of a different sorts is the French award-winner WHEN THE SEA RISES, starring real-life performance artist Yolande Moreau, who co-directed and co-wrote with Gilles Porte; she plays a traveling comic who picks up a shy but adoring male fan while on the road, and unwittingly has an affair with him. (Mini-Review: If you’re a fan of French cinema, then you may enjoy this odd romantic comedy starring two quirky characters, that could be the French equivalent of Miranda July’s Me and You and Everyone We Know. It’s a bit slower and not nearly as funny, spending a lot of time showing Moreau’s strange stage act, but there are also some nice moments that make it worthwhile. Rating: 7/10) Opening at the Film Forum in New York is the documentary THE IMPASSIONED EYE: HENRI CARTIER-BRESSON (Palm Pictures) about the famous French photographer and opening at the Landmark Sunshine, is THE KEEPER: THE LEGEND OF OMAR KHAYYAM, a fantasy drama by Kayvan Mashayekh, about a 12-year-old boy who believes that he’s an ancestor of the 11^th Century Persian astronomer and poet, and he fantasizes about what that time must have been like. The fine folks of Portland get FILM GEEK (First Run Features), James Westby’s romantic comedy about an annoying loser obsessed with movies—a type we know all too well here at ComingSoon.net--who finds a soul mate in the ultra-hip Niko, who already has a boyfriend.

THIS WEEKEND AT THE BOX OFFICE:

Martin Luther King Jr. weekend comes a bit earlier this year, giving the new movies four days to find an audience. The actual birthday of America’s greatest civil rights leader is on January 15, but many times, the holiday weekend takes place the weekend after to keep it from being too close to the other winter holidays.

The movie that’s done the best over the holiday weekend was Ridley Scott’s war drama Black Hawk Down, which expanded nationwide after a successful run in a few cities to make over $33 million over the four-day holiday. Two years ago, Ben Stiller started the best year of his career by teaming with Jennifer Aniston in the romantic comedy Along Came Polly, which made slightly less than that in the same period. (Stiller also had the #1 film last Martin Luther King weekend with the comedy sequel Meet the Fockers.) Former television director Thomas Carter has had two huge hits over the holiday four years apart, last year’s Coach Carter with Samuel L. Jackson and Save the Last Dance with Julia Stiles, both dealing with inner city scholastics. This week’s Glory Road, which deal with the first all-black college basketball team, will certainly be looking for that audience.

Not to generalize, but the holiday weekend celebrating Martin Luther King’s birthday is often used for films targeted towards African-American audiences, particularly comedies, as seen by the success of the sequel Next Friday in 2000 and Martin Lawrence’s National Security, a trend that might be able to help both Last Holiday and Glory Road this weekend. Both of them have stars and/or themes that might cater to that audience, although one will be of more interest to women and the other more interesting to guys.

Most of all, the Martin Luther King Jr. weekend has been a weekend where parents end up taking their kids to the movies, because there’s no school on Monday and it’s too cold outside. This has greatly helped weaker family films like Snow Dogs, Kangaroo Jack and Racing Stripes, all of which involved talking animals and all of them doing far better than any sane person might expect. Then again, Disney’s Teacher’s Pet, based on their animated show, barely made a mark on the weekend, maybe since it didn’t look any different from what kids could watch on television.

Since most of the movies listed below have been released in the last five or six years, it’s safe to assume that this weekend has only become a stronger moviegoing holiday weekend in recent years.

Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Black Hawk Down	1/18/02	3,101	$1.85	$33.63	$10,844	$108.58
Along Came Polly	1/16/04	2,984		$32.45	$10,874	$88.10
Save the Last Dance	1/12/01	2,230		$27.53	$10,511	$90.17
Coach Carter	1/14/05	2,524		$24.18	$9,581	$67.25
Snow Dogs	1/18/02	2,302		$23.71	$10,299	$81.15
Kangaroo Jack	1/17/03	2,818		$21.90	$7,770	$66.72
Racing Stripes	1/14/05	3,185		$18.86	$5,922	$49.19
Next Friday	1/14/00	1,103	$4.45	$16.92	$15,338	$57.18
National Security	1/17/03	2,729		$16.81	$6,161	$36.29
In Good Company	12/31/04	1,566	$0.49	$16.64	$10,624	$45.32
Elektra	1/14/05	3,203		$14.79	$4,618	$24.41

LET’S LOOK AT THE NUMBERS - final update 1.12.06

Eli Roth’s #1 horror film Hostel will have four new movies trying to usurp its top slot over the four-day Martin Luther King Jr. weekend, but only two of them might get enough theatres to offer any real competition, that being Disney’s sports drama Glory Road, starring Josh Lucas, and Paramount’s comedy Last Holiday with Queen Latifah.The R-rated gorefest should be able to get a bit of word-of-mouth business in its second weekend, although if it follows the typical horror movie pattern, it will have a larger drop-off this weekend than the other movies. With that in mind, the Jerry Bruckheimer produced basketball movie Glory Road, starring Josh Lucas, should be able to pick up enough slack to win the weekend with less than $20 million in four days, while Queen Latifah’s comedy might trail slightly behind, since it will only be targeting women with a weaker marketing campaign. The Weinstein Co. jumps into the computer animation game with the independently produced Red Riding Hood spoof Hoodwinked, which may have trouble getting family audiences away from The Chronicles of Narnia, although both it and Glory Road should benefit from schools and government offices being off on Monday. Ridley and Tony Scott’s production of Tristan & Isolde, starring James Franco, has appeared almost literally from out of nowhere with very little promotion or marketing, so it will probably have a rather limited audience of younger teen girls, and might have trouble getting into the Top 10. On the other hand, Ang Lee’s drama Brokeback Mountain will continue to expand this weekend after a slew of awards nominations and a win at the Critics' Choice Awards, and it may even make more this weekend than last. (Note: The projections below are for the entire four-day weekend.)

TW	LW	Title	Weekend (in millions)	Change	# Of Theaters	Average	Week
1	New	Glory Road	$15.6	N/A	2,222	$7,021	1
2	1	Hostel	$12.7	-35%	2,337	$5,434	2
3	New	Last Holiday	$12.2	N/A	2,514	$4,853	1
4	2	The Chronicles of Narnia	$11.5	-27%	3,224	$3,567	6
5	New	Hoodwinked	$10.4	N/A	2,388	$4,355	1
6	4	Fun with Dick and Jane	$8.9	-25%	3,239	$2,748	4
7	3	King Kong	$8.0	-37%	2,805	$2,858	5
8	8	Brokeback Mountain	$6.2	8%	683	$9,078	6
9	5	Cheaper by the Dozen 2	$6.0	-30%	2,773	$2,164	4
10	6	Munich	$5.7	-25%	1,498	$3,805	4
11	New	Tristan and Isolde	$5.3	N/A	1,840	$2,880	1
			Est. Weekend Total $102.50	Est. Avg. Drop-Off -24%		Est. Average PTA $4,432

Next week, we finally get the sequel to the action-horror thriller Underworld: Evolution with Kate Beckinsale and Scott Speedman, and a couple movies limited release movies expanding wider, such as Woody Allen’s Match Point and Terrence Mallick’s The New World.

Copyright 2006 Edward Douglas

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