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Your Weekly Guide to New Movies for
December 8, 2006
By Edward Douglas -
Greetings and welcome back to the Weekend Warrior,
your weekly guide to the weekend's new movies. Tune in every Tuesday
for the latest look at the upcoming weekend, and then check back on
Friday for final projections based on actual theatre counts.
(If
you have anything to say about anything written in this column, feedback
and Email is always welcome,
and almost always responded to.)
THE WEEKEND PREDICTIONS:
People might start talking about Leonardo DiCaprio and Kate Winslet, because almost ten years after making Titanic together, they can't seem to stay away from each other. For the second time this year, they each have a new movie opening the same weekend, Leo with Edward Zwick's African epic Blood Diamond and Winslet appearing with Cameron Diaz, Jack Black and Jude Law in Nancy Meyers' latest romantic comedy The Holiday. This time, it will be Winslet who comes out on top as she appears in the latest movie from a favored filmmaker among the mostly neglected female audience.
Still, Meyers will probably have to contend with the star of her biggest movie What Women Want, as Mel Gibson returns with his Mayan epic Apocalypto. It may seem like a strange follow-up to his 2004 blockbuster The Passion of The Christ, but the visionary film should generate a lot of curiosity and interest among fans of Gibson's Braveheart, even despite his recent personal problems. With none of the new movies opening in more than 3,000 theatres and Christmas right around the corner, we can probably expect none of them to make more than $20 million this weekend.
The fourth new movie in wide release, Warner Bros.' Unaccompanied Minors, probably won't have nearly as much interest as the other three movies, except among families looking for a bit of holiday fare, ground that's been adequately covered by Deck the Halls and Santa Clause 3.
Last year, Disney's The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, The Witch and The Wardrobe dominated theatres with an astounding $65 million opening weekend, while Stephen Gaghan's political thriller Syriana, starring George Clooney, expanded nationwide into second place with $11.7 million, knocking Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire down to third place with $10.3 million. It may be hard for this weekend's offerings to top the $113.6 million made by the top 10 over that weekend unless one of the four new movies breaks out.
THE CHOSEN ONE:
FAMILY
LAW (IFC Films)
Starring Daniel Hendler, Adriana Aizemberg, Luis Albornoz, Eloy Burman, Julieta Díaz, Damián Dreizik, Arturo Goetz, Darío Lagos
Written and directed by Daniel Burman (Lost Embrace, Waiting for the Messiah, Brief Stories)
Genre: Comedy, Drama, Foreign
Story: Attorney and teacher Ariel Perelman (Daniel Hendler) muses on his relationship with his own father, also a lawyer, as he becomes a father and has to raise his own son.
I haven't seen too many films from Argentina in my relatively short career as a film critic, maybe because not many of the films from that country are released here. It's a shame, because there's clearly a lot of talent in that country, as seen by the films of one of my favorite South American filmmakers, the late Fabian Bielinsky. (IFC Films recently released Bielinsky's excellent last film The Aura, which was the Chosen One a few weeks ago.)
Filmmaker Daniel Burman is becoming one of the country's more prolific independent filmmakers and this week, IFC Films releases Family Law, his follow-up to last year's Lost Embrace, which got a bit of attention for leading man Daniel Hendler. The two have reteamed for Family Law, which uses a similar storytelling technique, although it's only a thematic sequel, since Handler is playing a different character (albeit with the same first name). Using a similar narrative voice-over to introduce the characters as Alfonso Cuarón's Y Tu Mama Tambien, there's something fun and playful about Burman's whimsical slice-of-life look at life in Buenos Aires, specifically that of Daniel Hendler's Ariel Perelman, a teacher who gets himself into all sorts of awkward situations both before and after getting married and having a kid. Like Lost Embrace, it's about a guy trying to connect with his father, who has always wanted Ariel to join his firm, though the younger man resists. Hendler is a charming actor who immediately gets you to like him in a way not unlike the early movies of Tom Hanks or Tom Cruise. Teamed with Burman, they make quite a formidable duo, so I wouldn't be very surprised if Hollywood starts taking note of the talented twosome, whether it be adapting films like this for an American audience or getting Hendler to appear in American films. Either way, Burman has offered another interesting look at life that's surprisingly universal considering its South American roots.
Family Law opens in New York at the IFC Center and the Lincoln Plaza Cinemas.
APOCALYPTO (Touchstone
Pictures)
Starring Rudy Youngblood, Dalia Hernandez, Jonathan Brewer, Morris Birdyellowhead, Carlos Emilio Baez, Ramirez Amilcar, Israel Contreras, Israel Rios, María Isabel Díaz, Espiridion Acosta Cache, Iazua Larios
Directed by Mel Gibson; Written by Mel Gibson, Farhad Safinia
Genre: Adventure, Drama
Rated R
Tagline: After watching his tribe be attacked and slaughtered, a young Mayan warrior named Jaguar Paw (Rudy Youngblood) is separated from his pregnant wife and child when the survivors are captured by ruthless warriors to be sacrificed to their God. Against all odds, the young warrior must escape and get back to his family before they're killed themselves
Plot Summary: "When the end comes, not everyone is ready to go."
Of Note: Mel Gibson's follow-up to the blockbuster The Passion of The Christ brings him forward in time to the last days of the Mayans of South America.
REVIEW
Pros:
Like Martin Scorsese, Oliver Stone and Clint Eastwood, Mel Gibson is considered an auteur among older movie fans and he has many male fans due to his Oscar-winning war epic Braveheart. Although Apocalypto might not be as much interest to the Christian/Catholic audiences that flocked to The Passion of The Christ, helping it gross over $370 million, it will certainly appeal to the guys who liked the visually stunning battle scenes in his earlier film, which won Mel an Oscar as director.
There's probably a lot of interest in this movie among older guys, expecting a lot more action than in recent fare. Reviews should be predominantly good, because the movie shows Gibson realizing an amazing epic vision of the Mayan people unlike anything we've seen this year. There certainly is a lot of awareness for this odd film, both negative and positive, due to Mel's drunken shenanigans a few months back.
Though Apocalypto may miss out on the date crowd that will pick one of the other two new movies, it should win points with moviegoers on originality, because the other two grown-up movies look like things we've seen before.
Cons:
What might put a lot of people off seeing this movie is director Mel Gibson's behavior in the past year, specifically his drunken anti-Semitic tirade, which pissed off a lot of people, especially after they defended The Passion of The Christ against anti-Semitism. It's been a hard thing for Touchstone/Disney to dissuade, but they went into spin control immediately after the incident and months later, it's been almost forgotten thanks to more recent antics of Michael Richards and O.J. Simpson, so maybe those who like Gibson's movies will look past his personal issues to see the movie.
An even bigger problem is that there's absolutely no star power in the movie, and it will be hard to convince moviegoers to shell out bucks to see a movie in Mayan starring unknowns, who have no previous proof of their abilities.
The genre of movies about Native Americans on either continent isn't one that has proven strong at the box office, as seen most recently by Terrence Malick's The New World, which didn't find much interest despite its Oscar maneuvering. Movies like Kevin Costner's Dances with Wolves and Last of the Mohicans found more business, though they had starpower. It's unknown whether Mel Gibson's fans will want to spend over two hours watching a bunch of Mayans battle each other.
The movie is very violent and gory--though not really compared to The Passion of The Christ--and might put off a lot of people, particularly women who might have been open to a Mayan epic otherwise. That pretty much leaves this movie to the guys who dug Braveheart, which is a fairly big group, but it could lose some of them to this week's other new movie Blood Diamond.
Comparisons:
Why I Should See It: If you ever wondered what it may have been like to live in Mayan times… well, then you're probably as nuts as Mel Gibson. Congratulations.
Why Not: This is an amazing movie full of spectacular visuals, but really, a movie completely in Mayan after making a movie in Aramaic? What could Gibson possibly have planned next?
Projections: $17 to 19 million opening; $65 million total.
BLOOD
DIAMOND (Warner Bros.)
Starring Leonardo DiCaprio, Djimon Hounsou, Jennifer Connelly, James Purefoy, Arnold Vosloo, Stephen Collins, Michael Sheen
Directed by Edward Zwick (Courage Under Fire, The Last Samurai, Glory); Written by Charles Leavitt (K-PAX)
Genre: Action, Drama, Thriller,
Rated R
Plot Summary: In the war-torn country of Sierra Leone, Africa, a fisherman (Djimon Hounsou) and a diamond-smuggling South African mercenary (Leonardo DiCaprio) become unwitting allies when the former is separated from his family by ruthless rebels and must retrieve an enormous diamond he found that might help get them back.
Of Note: Filmmaker Edward Zwick teams with Leonardo DiCaprio, Djimon Hounsou and Jennifer Connelly to tell a tale of diamond running in war-torn Sierra Leone, Africa.
REVIEW
Pros:
Leonardo DiCaprio appears in his second movie of 2006, just two months after his third pairing with Martin Scorsese, The Departed, dominated the box office in October to become one of the fall's biggest hits, even before its likely Oscar nominations. This time, DiCaprio is teamed with Djimon Hounsou, an African born actor who received attention for movies like Steven Spielberg's Amistad and Ridley Scott's Gladiator before being nominated for an Oscar for his role in Jim Sheridan's In America. The movie also stars Oscar winner Jennifer Connelly, whose role as an American journalist and love interest for Leo is greatly played down, maybe because she has not proven to be the box office draw that many thought she'd be after winning the Oscar for 2001's A Beautiful Mind. The amount of Oscar nominated actors in the movie would make it seem like it's one of the Oscar hopefuls, though it doesn't have that much more buzz than director Edward Zwick's last movie The Last Samurai, starring Tom Cruise, which opened almost exactly three years ago.
Blood Diamond is an action-packed war drama set in Africa similar to Ridley Scott's Black Hawk Down or Antoine Fuqua's Tears of the Sun, starring Bruce Willis, which should help it attract younger and older guys. Leonardo Dicaprio still has many female fans, something that probably helped The Departed bring in such a large audience despite being more of guys' movie.
Like The Holiday, starring Leo's Titanic girlfriend Kate Winslet, Warner Bros. gave the movie sneak previews in roughly 800 theatres to try to build word-of-mouth last weekend. Since it's rare for a movie like this to get previews, they must feel good about it.
Cons:
Over the last few years, Leo has become a respected actor with a big fanbase, much like Johnny Depp, but he might not be quite convincing in this kind of role and his fans might not be as interested in this kind of movie. Leo's worked with many great directors in the last few years from James Cameron to Martin Scorsese (three times) and Steven Spielberg, but Blood Diamond is directed by Edward Zwick, who doesn't have the same sort of respect among movie buffs, nor does Leo have the help of a stronger star in the form of Jack Nicholson or Tom Hanks to help bring older audiences into theatres.
There really doesn't seem to be much interest in Africa right now with movies like The Last King of Scotland and Catch a Fire failing to find an audience here, the latter bombing in a big way. Though Blood Diamond is more in the vein of Ridley Scott's Black Hawk Down or Antoine Fuqua's Tears of the Sun, just being set in Africa might make some people think twice about seeing it, since they might expect another patronizing political message.
The commercials and trailer don't look that great, particularly the awful "Bling bang" line Leo utters, and the sneak previews may backfire if those interested in seeing the movie already did or if word-of-mouth isn't as strong as Warner Bros. hoped. They certainly aren' t giving the movie the type of wide release one might expect from a Leonardo DiCaprio flick, estimated at less than 2,000 theatres, which could hurt the movie. That kind of release is more in line with the openings of The Aviator or Gangs of New York, neither which made more than $10 million in their December '02 opening weekends.
The movie already seems to be out of consideration in the Oscar race, at least in terms of the normal Oscar pundits, so Blood Diamond probably won't have the longetivity of Leo's previous movies, while being hurt by upcoming films, not to mention Mel Gibson's Apocalypto, which will attract the same older male audience this weekend and will probably get better reviews.
Comparisons:
Why I Should See It: This African epic contains some interesting information about the African diamond trade and how it affects the natives.
Why Not: Leo may be pretty, but his South African accent isn't.
Projections: $11 to 13 million opening weekend; $45 million total.
THE
HOLIDAY (Sony)
Starring Cameron Diaz, Kate Winslet, Jude Law, Jack Black, Eli Wallach, Edward Burns, Rufus Sewel
Written and directed by Nancy Meyers (What Women Want, Something's Gotta Give, The Parent Trap)
Genre: Comedy, Romance
Rated PG-13
Tagline:
Plot Summary: An L.A. woman (Cameron Diaz) and a woman from a small town in England (Kate Winslet) meet on the internet and agree to swap houses for the holidays to give them each a change of scenery and pace, both finding new happiness by getting away from their normal lives.
Of Note: Nancy Meyers is back with her tri-annual romantic comedy offering, this one with a mix of hot young British and American actors.
REVIEW
Pros:
If there's one genre that has really seen a drop-off this year it's been the romantic comedy. It's not that the genre hasn't been successful--Ivan Reitman's ill conceived Super Ex-Girlfriend notwithstanding--because this year has seen two hugely successful "romantic comedies", both based on books. Back in March, Failure to Launch starring Matthew McConaughey and Sarah Jessica Parker made nearly $90 million after opening with $24 million and then Fox had a huge hit with The Devil Wears Prada over the summer. Though the latter wasn't strictly a rom-com, they both showed that there were millions of women and girls who would go see a movie if it had the right premise and cast.
The Holiday has the benefits of being helmed by a filmmaker who has had great success among that audience, and Nancy Meyers has assembled another impressive cast, one younger than the Jack Nicholson-Diane Keaton pairing of Something's Gotta Give. The good thing is that women and girls know Cameron Diaz and Kate Winslet from previous movies like Charlie's Angels and Titanic, both big movies for that demographic, and they should enjoy them in this sort of movie, especially considering that Diaz's love interest is played by the debonair Jude Law. Winslet's Q-rating has been growing by leaps and bounds as she's appeared in many popular movies, though none of them have come close to doing the kind of business as her early movie Titanic, still the highest grossing movie of all time. Her love interest is played by Jack Black in a decidedly different role for him. (The Holiday also stars actors like Edward Burns and Rufus Sewell AKA Prince Leopold from The Illusionist as the women's bad ex-boyfriends.)
Sony gave the movie sneak previews last weekend, something which has always been good for generating interest and word-of-mouth around the water cooler. This kind of movie almost always has legs, especially opening before Christmas because once women take a week off from work, they'll be looking for a movie like this to go to in flocks. This seems to be the case every winter as holiday-related romantic comedies like last year's The Family Stone or 1998's You've Got Mail always do great business in the weeks after opening. Even if the movie doesn't open big, it should have similar legs to Meyers' last two movies, which made between 5 and 7 times their opening before leaving theatres.
Cons:
None of the cast really have a significant female following, at least not in this genre. Cameron Diaz's attempt to move in this direction with last year's In Her Shoes, based on a popular book, failed to bring in much business, and Winslet's choices have been quirkier and often relying on a stronger male lead like Johnny Depp (Finding Neverland) and Jim Carrey (Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind). The closest Jack Black has come to a romantic comedy was Shallow Hal, and he's not the type of actor people consider as a romantic lead, though at least he has some charm, unlike Keanu Reeves.
Jude Law is back this year after appearing in way too many movies in the Fall of '04, but it doesn't seem like there's been much interest in his return as seen by the failure of the delayed Al the King's Men and the Weinstein Company moving around Anthony Minghella's Breaking and Entering. Some women might be over him due to his philandering ways, cheating on his wife and then his fiance, with the maid no less.
The Holiday doesn't have the same sort of "instant interest" title as something like Meyers' previous movie What Women Want, which was an instant home run due to the title, the premise and having Mel Gibson doing his first romantic comedy. Something's Gotta Give had the strength of its two stars, both whom had success during the holiday and awards season in the past. The Holiday is also less likely to have interest among guys than other movies released this weekend, so it's going to be a tougher sell as a date movie.
Sony isn't giving The Holiday an ultra-wide release like other recent romantic comedies (less than both of Meyers' previous films), and that's likely to keep it from doing the sort of opening numbers as movies like The Devil Wears Prada or Failure to Launch, two of this year's biggest hits among women. It's also doubtful that The Holiday will have the same sort of Oscar buzz that helped Something's Gotta Give have such long legs through the holidays.
Comparisons:
Why I Should See It: If there's a filmmaker who might be considered "master of the romantic comedy," that's likely to be Nancy Meyers, although Nora Ephron may disagree.
Why Not: I thought that the Queen Latifah movie Last Holiday was the last one, but now there's another holiday movie, so what's up with that?
Projections: $16 to 18 million opening; $70 million total.
UNACCOMPANIED
MINORS (Warner Bros.)
Starring Lewis Black, Wilmer Valderrama, Tyler James Williams, Dyllan Christopher, Gina Mantegna, Quinn Shephard, Brett Kelly, Rob Corddry, Jessica Walter
Directed by Paul Feig (I Am David, writer on "Freaks and Geeks" and director of "Arrested Development" and "The Office"); Written by Jacob Meszaros and Mya Stark (P.E.)
Genre: Comedy, Family, Holiday
Rated PG
Tagline: "Silent night… yeah, right."
Plot Summary: Five kids get stranded at an airport in Chicago, all by themselves on Christmas Eve, but with the help of a flight attendant (Wilmer Valderrama) they must try to outwit a disgruntled security official (Lewis Black) to try to give them a joyous Christmas before getting them home.
Of Note: Director Paul Feig, best known for directing some of television's funniest and most popular comedies, makes a family holiday film starring Wilmer "That ‘70s Show" Valderrama and Lewis Black.
Pros:
With the holidays already in full swing, it makes sense that studios will want to release holiday-related comedies that can appeal to the whole family, and Unaccompanied Minors joins Santa Clause 3, Deck the Halls and a number of animated films in trying to bring in that family business. This one, directed by TV's Paul Feig, tries to capture the magic of John Hughes' comedies like Planes, Trains and Automobiles or Home Alone, even using a similar plot of stranded kids as the latter. It's kind of a strange departure into family humor for Feig, but considering Tim Allen's success in the genre, it's not surprising. With other live action family comedies already dropping out of theatres, this may be a good time for Unaccompanied Minors to open with the hopes of generating word-of-mouth before the busy movie week between Christmas and New Year's Day.
Cons:
There really is no star power beyond Lewis Black and Wilmer Valderrama, neither whom have proven themselves as box office draws from their last efforts (Accepted and Fast Food Nation). It's much better to release holiday movies before Thanksgiving since they'll do a lot of business that weekend and the weekends leading up to Christmas. With the strongest family movie in theatres, Happy Feet (also from Warner Bros), still holding strong after three weeks at #1, it might be hard for Unaccompanied Minors to get much attention, though it might benefit from that movie already being out for three weeks. While the movie looks like it could be a lot of fun, it doesn't look like the kind of movie that anyone might need to rush out to see. With so many people saving their money up for Christmas, a movie like this might not convince them to spend the bucks in early December, and it will rely heavily on word-of-mouth for holiday legs. (In the chart below, you can see the difference in the opening and gross of the three Home Alone movies, although the last one no longer starred Macaulay Culkin either.)
Comparisons:
Why I Should See It: Paul Feig has directed some of the funniest shows on television and he should bring the same sensibilities to this movie.
Why Not: Kids should love all the action and physical humor; parents might be a tougher sell, maybe because it will remind them too much of the Spielberg-Hanks flop The Terminal.
Projections: $8 to 10 million opening; $40 million total.
OTHER LIMITED RELEASES:
DAYS OF GLORY (INDIGENES) (The Weinstein Co.) The Algerian entry into the Oscars is this WWII drama about North Africans who come to France to fight off the invading Germans, only to get treated like second-class citizens by their commanding officers and fellow soldiers. It opens in New York and L.A. on Wednesday for a brief Oscar consideration run.
INLAND EMPIRE (518 Media) David Lynch's 3-hour epic follows an actress (Laura Dern) as she gets caught up in a mystery on the cursed set of her latest film. It will open in New York at the IFC Center on Wednesday, and it's a very strange experience indeed.
OFF THE BLACK (THINKFilm) James Ponsoldt's coming of age story of a teen (Trevor Morgan) who gets caught vandalizing the house of cranky, divorced Little League umpire, Ray Cooke (Nick Nolte). As their unlikely friendship slowly develops, Ray asks the boy to go to his 40th high school reunion, pretending to be his son. New York, L.A. on Friday.
SCREAMERS (Maya Releasing) Filmmaker Carla Garapedian (Lifting the Veil) makes a documentary about the history of genocide, featuring songs and performances from the rock band System of a Down, all of whom are of Armenian descent. It opens in L.A. on Friday and in New York on January 17.
Next week, the holiday season hits full throttle with two movies based on popular best-selling books for kids and teens, E.B. White's Charlotte's Web and Eragon. If those two weren't enough to stump the box office analysts, there's also the latest from Will Smith, the real-life drama The Pursuit of Happyness.
Copyright 2006 Edward Douglas
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THE WEEKEND PREDICTIONS:
|
TW |
LW |
Title |
Weekend (in millions) |
Change |
# Of Theaters |
Average |
Week |
|
1 |
New |
$18.5 |
N/A |
2,465 |
$7,505 |
1 |
|
|
2 |
New |
$17.1 |
N/A |
2,610 |
$6,552 |
1 |
|
|
3 |
New |
$12.2 |
N/A |
1,910 |
$6,387 |
1 |
|
|
4 |
1 |
Happy Feet |
$11.0 |
-37% |
3,550 |
$3,099 |
4 |
|
5 |
New |
$8.8 |
N/A |
2,500 |
$3,171 |
1 |
|
|
6 |
2 |
Casino Royale |
$8.5 |
-45% |
3,100 |
$2,677 |
4 |
|
7 |
3 |
Déjà Vu |
$5.8 |
-47% |
3,108 |
$1,866 |
3 |
|
8 |
4 |
The Nativity Story |
$4.7 |
-40% |
3,183 |
$1,477 |
2 |
|
9 |
5 |
Deck the Halls |
$3.8 |
-42% |
3,000 |
$1,267 |
3 |
|
10 |
6 |
The Santa Clause 3 |
$2.8 |
-39% |
2,750 |
$1,091 |
6 |
|
Est. Weekend Total |
Est. Avg. Drop-Off |
Est. Average PTA |
People might start talking about Leonardo DiCaprio and Kate Winslet, because almost ten years after making Titanic together, they can't seem to stay away from each other. For the second time this year, they each have a new movie opening the same weekend, Leo with Edward Zwick's African epic Blood Diamond and Winslet appearing with Cameron Diaz, Jack Black and Jude Law in Nancy Meyers' latest romantic comedy The Holiday. This time, it will be Winslet who comes out on top as she appears in the latest movie from a favored filmmaker among the mostly neglected female audience.
Still, Meyers will probably have to contend with the star of her biggest movie What Women Want, as Mel Gibson returns with his Mayan epic Apocalypto. It may seem like a strange follow-up to his 2004 blockbuster The Passion of The Christ, but the visionary film should generate a lot of curiosity and interest among fans of Gibson's Braveheart, even despite his recent personal problems. With none of the new movies opening in more than 3,000 theatres and Christmas right around the corner, we can probably expect none of them to make more than $20 million this weekend.
The fourth new movie in wide release, Warner Bros.' Unaccompanied Minors, probably won't have nearly as much interest as the other three movies, except among families looking for a bit of holiday fare, ground that's been adequately covered by Deck the Halls and Santa Clause 3.
Last year, Disney's The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, The Witch and The Wardrobe dominated theatres with an astounding $65 million opening weekend, while Stephen Gaghan's political thriller Syriana, starring George Clooney, expanded nationwide into second place with $11.7 million, knocking Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire down to third place with $10.3 million. It may be hard for this weekend's offerings to top the $113.6 million made by the top 10 over that weekend unless one of the four new movies breaks out.
THE CHOSEN ONE:
FAMILY
LAW (IFC Films)Starring Daniel Hendler, Adriana Aizemberg, Luis Albornoz, Eloy Burman, Julieta Díaz, Damián Dreizik, Arturo Goetz, Darío Lagos
Written and directed by Daniel Burman (Lost Embrace, Waiting for the Messiah, Brief Stories)
Genre: Comedy, Drama, Foreign
Story: Attorney and teacher Ariel Perelman (Daniel Hendler) muses on his relationship with his own father, also a lawyer, as he becomes a father and has to raise his own son.
I haven't seen too many films from Argentina in my relatively short career as a film critic, maybe because not many of the films from that country are released here. It's a shame, because there's clearly a lot of talent in that country, as seen by the films of one of my favorite South American filmmakers, the late Fabian Bielinsky. (IFC Films recently released Bielinsky's excellent last film The Aura, which was the Chosen One a few weeks ago.)
Filmmaker Daniel Burman is becoming one of the country's more prolific independent filmmakers and this week, IFC Films releases Family Law, his follow-up to last year's Lost Embrace, which got a bit of attention for leading man Daniel Hendler. The two have reteamed for Family Law, which uses a similar storytelling technique, although it's only a thematic sequel, since Handler is playing a different character (albeit with the same first name). Using a similar narrative voice-over to introduce the characters as Alfonso Cuarón's Y Tu Mama Tambien, there's something fun and playful about Burman's whimsical slice-of-life look at life in Buenos Aires, specifically that of Daniel Hendler's Ariel Perelman, a teacher who gets himself into all sorts of awkward situations both before and after getting married and having a kid. Like Lost Embrace, it's about a guy trying to connect with his father, who has always wanted Ariel to join his firm, though the younger man resists. Hendler is a charming actor who immediately gets you to like him in a way not unlike the early movies of Tom Hanks or Tom Cruise. Teamed with Burman, they make quite a formidable duo, so I wouldn't be very surprised if Hollywood starts taking note of the talented twosome, whether it be adapting films like this for an American audience or getting Hendler to appear in American films. Either way, Burman has offered another interesting look at life that's surprisingly universal considering its South American roots.
Family Law opens in New York at the IFC Center and the Lincoln Plaza Cinemas.
APOCALYPTO (Touchstone
Pictures)Starring Rudy Youngblood, Dalia Hernandez, Jonathan Brewer, Morris Birdyellowhead, Carlos Emilio Baez, Ramirez Amilcar, Israel Contreras, Israel Rios, María Isabel Díaz, Espiridion Acosta Cache, Iazua Larios
Directed by Mel Gibson; Written by Mel Gibson, Farhad Safinia
Genre: Adventure, Drama
Rated R
Tagline: After watching his tribe be attacked and slaughtered, a young Mayan warrior named Jaguar Paw (Rudy Youngblood) is separated from his pregnant wife and child when the survivors are captured by ruthless warriors to be sacrificed to their God. Against all odds, the young warrior must escape and get back to his family before they're killed themselves
Plot Summary: "When the end comes, not everyone is ready to go."
Of Note: Mel Gibson's follow-up to the blockbuster The Passion of The Christ brings him forward in time to the last days of the Mayans of South America.
REVIEW
Pros:
Like Martin Scorsese, Oliver Stone and Clint Eastwood, Mel Gibson is considered an auteur among older movie fans and he has many male fans due to his Oscar-winning war epic Braveheart. Although Apocalypto might not be as much interest to the Christian/Catholic audiences that flocked to The Passion of The Christ, helping it gross over $370 million, it will certainly appeal to the guys who liked the visually stunning battle scenes in his earlier film, which won Mel an Oscar as director.
There's probably a lot of interest in this movie among older guys, expecting a lot more action than in recent fare. Reviews should be predominantly good, because the movie shows Gibson realizing an amazing epic vision of the Mayan people unlike anything we've seen this year. There certainly is a lot of awareness for this odd film, both negative and positive, due to Mel's drunken shenanigans a few months back.
Though Apocalypto may miss out on the date crowd that will pick one of the other two new movies, it should win points with moviegoers on originality, because the other two grown-up movies look like things we've seen before.
Cons:
What might put a lot of people off seeing this movie is director Mel Gibson's behavior in the past year, specifically his drunken anti-Semitic tirade, which pissed off a lot of people, especially after they defended The Passion of The Christ against anti-Semitism. It's been a hard thing for Touchstone/Disney to dissuade, but they went into spin control immediately after the incident and months later, it's been almost forgotten thanks to more recent antics of Michael Richards and O.J. Simpson, so maybe those who like Gibson's movies will look past his personal issues to see the movie.
An even bigger problem is that there's absolutely no star power in the movie, and it will be hard to convince moviegoers to shell out bucks to see a movie in Mayan starring unknowns, who have no previous proof of their abilities.
The genre of movies about Native Americans on either continent isn't one that has proven strong at the box office, as seen most recently by Terrence Malick's The New World, which didn't find much interest despite its Oscar maneuvering. Movies like Kevin Costner's Dances with Wolves and Last of the Mohicans found more business, though they had starpower. It's unknown whether Mel Gibson's fans will want to spend over two hours watching a bunch of Mayans battle each other.
The movie is very violent and gory--though not really compared to The Passion of The Christ--and might put off a lot of people, particularly women who might have been open to a Mayan epic otherwise. That pretty much leaves this movie to the guys who dug Braveheart, which is a fairly big group, but it could lose some of them to this week's other new movie Blood Diamond.
Comparisons:
|
Title |
Release Date |
Theater Count |
Previous Box Office (in millions) |
Weekend Box Office (in millions) |
Average |
Total Box Office |
|
The Passion of The Christ |
2/27/04 |
3,043 |
$41.34 |
$83.85 |
$27,554 |
$370.27 |
|
Braveheart |
5/26/95 |
2,035 |
$2.64 |
$12.91 |
$6,344 |
$75.59 |
|
The End of the Spear |
1/20/06 |
$1,162 |
$4.28 |
$3,684 |
$11.70 |
|
|
The New World |
12/23/05 |
811 |
$0.19 |
$4.03 |
$4,969 |
$12.71 |
|
Last of the Mohicans |
9/25/92 |
1,491 |
$10.98 |
$7,364 |
$71.96 |
|
|
Dances With Wolves |
11/23/90 |
1,053 |
$1.68 |
$9.49 |
$9,012 |
$184.21 |
|
The Clan of the Cave Bear |
1/17/86 |
1 |
$25,428 |
$25,428 |
$1.95 |
|
|
Quest for Fire |
2/12/82 |
223 |
$2.17 |
$9,736 |
$20.96 |
Why I Should See It: If you ever wondered what it may have been like to live in Mayan times… well, then you're probably as nuts as Mel Gibson. Congratulations.
Why Not: This is an amazing movie full of spectacular visuals, but really, a movie completely in Mayan after making a movie in Aramaic? What could Gibson possibly have planned next?
Projections: $17 to 19 million opening; $65 million total.
BLOOD
DIAMOND (Warner Bros.)Starring Leonardo DiCaprio, Djimon Hounsou, Jennifer Connelly, James Purefoy, Arnold Vosloo, Stephen Collins, Michael Sheen
Directed by Edward Zwick (Courage Under Fire, The Last Samurai, Glory); Written by Charles Leavitt (K-PAX)
Genre: Action, Drama, Thriller,
Rated R
Plot Summary: In the war-torn country of Sierra Leone, Africa, a fisherman (Djimon Hounsou) and a diamond-smuggling South African mercenary (Leonardo DiCaprio) become unwitting allies when the former is separated from his family by ruthless rebels and must retrieve an enormous diamond he found that might help get them back.
Of Note: Filmmaker Edward Zwick teams with Leonardo DiCaprio, Djimon Hounsou and Jennifer Connelly to tell a tale of diamond running in war-torn Sierra Leone, Africa.
REVIEW
Pros:
Leonardo DiCaprio appears in his second movie of 2006, just two months after his third pairing with Martin Scorsese, The Departed, dominated the box office in October to become one of the fall's biggest hits, even before its likely Oscar nominations. This time, DiCaprio is teamed with Djimon Hounsou, an African born actor who received attention for movies like Steven Spielberg's Amistad and Ridley Scott's Gladiator before being nominated for an Oscar for his role in Jim Sheridan's In America. The movie also stars Oscar winner Jennifer Connelly, whose role as an American journalist and love interest for Leo is greatly played down, maybe because she has not proven to be the box office draw that many thought she'd be after winning the Oscar for 2001's A Beautiful Mind. The amount of Oscar nominated actors in the movie would make it seem like it's one of the Oscar hopefuls, though it doesn't have that much more buzz than director Edward Zwick's last movie The Last Samurai, starring Tom Cruise, which opened almost exactly three years ago.
Blood Diamond is an action-packed war drama set in Africa similar to Ridley Scott's Black Hawk Down or Antoine Fuqua's Tears of the Sun, starring Bruce Willis, which should help it attract younger and older guys. Leonardo Dicaprio still has many female fans, something that probably helped The Departed bring in such a large audience despite being more of guys' movie.
Like The Holiday, starring Leo's Titanic girlfriend Kate Winslet, Warner Bros. gave the movie sneak previews in roughly 800 theatres to try to build word-of-mouth last weekend. Since it's rare for a movie like this to get previews, they must feel good about it.
Cons:
Over the last few years, Leo has become a respected actor with a big fanbase, much like Johnny Depp, but he might not be quite convincing in this kind of role and his fans might not be as interested in this kind of movie. Leo's worked with many great directors in the last few years from James Cameron to Martin Scorsese (three times) and Steven Spielberg, but Blood Diamond is directed by Edward Zwick, who doesn't have the same sort of respect among movie buffs, nor does Leo have the help of a stronger star in the form of Jack Nicholson or Tom Hanks to help bring older audiences into theatres.
There really doesn't seem to be much interest in Africa right now with movies like The Last King of Scotland and Catch a Fire failing to find an audience here, the latter bombing in a big way. Though Blood Diamond is more in the vein of Ridley Scott's Black Hawk Down or Antoine Fuqua's Tears of the Sun, just being set in Africa might make some people think twice about seeing it, since they might expect another patronizing political message.
The commercials and trailer don't look that great, particularly the awful "Bling bang" line Leo utters, and the sneak previews may backfire if those interested in seeing the movie already did or if word-of-mouth isn't as strong as Warner Bros. hoped. They certainly aren' t giving the movie the type of wide release one might expect from a Leonardo DiCaprio flick, estimated at less than 2,000 theatres, which could hurt the movie. That kind of release is more in line with the openings of The Aviator or Gangs of New York, neither which made more than $10 million in their December '02 opening weekends.
The movie already seems to be out of consideration in the Oscar race, at least in terms of the normal Oscar pundits, so Blood Diamond probably won't have the longetivity of Leo's previous movies, while being hurt by upcoming films, not to mention Mel Gibson's Apocalypto, which will attract the same older male audience this weekend and will probably get better reviews.
Comparisons:
|
Title |
Release Date |
Theater Count |
Previous Box Office (in millions) |
Weekend Box Office (in millions) |
Average |
Total Box Office |
|
The Departed |
10/6/06 |
3,017 |
$26.89 |
$8,912.00 |
$116.87 |
|
|
The Aviator |
12/17/04 |
1,796 |
$1.36 |
$8.63 |
$4,806 |
$102.68 |
|
Gangs of New York |
12/20/02 |
1,504 |
$9.12 |
$6,051 |
$77.81 |
|
|
Catch Me If You Can |
12/27/02 |
3,156 |
$18.60 |
$30.08 |
$9,532 |
$144.96 |
|
Titanic |
12/19/97 |
2,674 |
$28.64 |
$10,711 |
$600.79 |
|
|
The Last Samurai |
12/5/03 |
2,908 |
$24.27 |
$8,346 |
$107.46 |
|
|
Courage Under Fire |
7/12/96 |
1,986 |
$12.50 |
$6,294 |
$59.00 |
|
|
Glory |
2/16/90 |
801 |
$13.57 |
$2.68 |
$3,346 |
$26.59 |
|
Tears of the Sun |
3/7/03 |
2,973 |
$17.06 |
$5,737 |
$43.63 |
|
|
Black Hawk Down |
1/18/02 |
3,101 |
$1.85 |
$33.63 |
$10,844 |
$108.58 |
Why I Should See It: This African epic contains some interesting information about the African diamond trade and how it affects the natives.
Why Not: Leo may be pretty, but his South African accent isn't.
Projections: $11 to 13 million opening weekend; $45 million total.
THE
HOLIDAY (Sony)Starring Cameron Diaz, Kate Winslet, Jude Law, Jack Black, Eli Wallach, Edward Burns, Rufus Sewel
Written and directed by Nancy Meyers (What Women Want, Something's Gotta Give, The Parent Trap)
Genre: Comedy, Romance
Rated PG-13
Tagline:
Plot Summary: An L.A. woman (Cameron Diaz) and a woman from a small town in England (Kate Winslet) meet on the internet and agree to swap houses for the holidays to give them each a change of scenery and pace, both finding new happiness by getting away from their normal lives.
Of Note: Nancy Meyers is back with her tri-annual romantic comedy offering, this one with a mix of hot young British and American actors.
REVIEW
Pros:
If there's one genre that has really seen a drop-off this year it's been the romantic comedy. It's not that the genre hasn't been successful--Ivan Reitman's ill conceived Super Ex-Girlfriend notwithstanding--because this year has seen two hugely successful "romantic comedies", both based on books. Back in March, Failure to Launch starring Matthew McConaughey and Sarah Jessica Parker made nearly $90 million after opening with $24 million and then Fox had a huge hit with The Devil Wears Prada over the summer. Though the latter wasn't strictly a rom-com, they both showed that there were millions of women and girls who would go see a movie if it had the right premise and cast.
The Holiday has the benefits of being helmed by a filmmaker who has had great success among that audience, and Nancy Meyers has assembled another impressive cast, one younger than the Jack Nicholson-Diane Keaton pairing of Something's Gotta Give. The good thing is that women and girls know Cameron Diaz and Kate Winslet from previous movies like Charlie's Angels and Titanic, both big movies for that demographic, and they should enjoy them in this sort of movie, especially considering that Diaz's love interest is played by the debonair Jude Law. Winslet's Q-rating has been growing by leaps and bounds as she's appeared in many popular movies, though none of them have come close to doing the kind of business as her early movie Titanic, still the highest grossing movie of all time. Her love interest is played by Jack Black in a decidedly different role for him. (The Holiday also stars actors like Edward Burns and Rufus Sewell AKA Prince Leopold from The Illusionist as the women's bad ex-boyfriends.)
Sony gave the movie sneak previews last weekend, something which has always been good for generating interest and word-of-mouth around the water cooler. This kind of movie almost always has legs, especially opening before Christmas because once women take a week off from work, they'll be looking for a movie like this to go to in flocks. This seems to be the case every winter as holiday-related romantic comedies like last year's The Family Stone or 1998's You've Got Mail always do great business in the weeks after opening. Even if the movie doesn't open big, it should have similar legs to Meyers' last two movies, which made between 5 and 7 times their opening before leaving theatres.
Cons:
None of the cast really have a significant female following, at least not in this genre. Cameron Diaz's attempt to move in this direction with last year's In Her Shoes, based on a popular book, failed to bring in much business, and Winslet's choices have been quirkier and often relying on a stronger male lead like Johnny Depp (Finding Neverland) and Jim Carrey (Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind). The closest Jack Black has come to a romantic comedy was Shallow Hal, and he's not the type of actor people consider as a romantic lead, though at least he has some charm, unlike Keanu Reeves.
Jude Law is back this year after appearing in way too many movies in the Fall of '04, but it doesn't seem like there's been much interest in his return as seen by the failure of the delayed Al the King's Men and the Weinstein Company moving around Anthony Minghella's Breaking and Entering. Some women might be over him due to his philandering ways, cheating on his wife and then his fiance, with the maid no less.
The Holiday doesn't have the same sort of "instant interest" title as something like Meyers' previous movie What Women Want, which was an instant home run due to the title, the premise and having Mel Gibson doing his first romantic comedy. Something's Gotta Give had the strength of its two stars, both whom had success during the holiday and awards season in the past. The Holiday is also less likely to have interest among guys than other movies released this weekend, so it's going to be a tougher sell as a date movie.
Sony isn't giving The Holiday an ultra-wide release like other recent romantic comedies (less than both of Meyers' previous films), and that's likely to keep it from doing the sort of opening numbers as movies like The Devil Wears Prada or Failure to Launch, two of this year's biggest hits among women. It's also doubtful that The Holiday will have the same sort of Oscar buzz that helped Something's Gotta Give have such long legs through the holidays.
Comparisons:
|
Title |
Release Date |
Theater Count |
Previous Box Office (in millions) |
Weekend Box Office (in millions) |
Average |
Total Box Office |
|
Something's Gotta Give |
12/12/03 |
2,677 |
$16.06 |
$6,001 |
$111.88 |
|
|
What Women Want |
12/15/00 |
3,012 |
$33.61 |
$11,159 |
$182.81 |
|
|
In Her Shoes |
10/7/05 |
2,808 |
$10.02 |
$3,568 |
$32.88 |
|
|
Shallow Hal |
11/9/01 |
2,771 |
$23.28 |
$8,401 |
$70.83 |
|
|
Finding Neverland |
11/12/04 |
513 |
$3.08 |
$4.67 |
$9,104 |
$51.68 |
|
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind |
3/19/04 |
1,353 |
$8.18 |
$6,042 |
$34.13 |
|
|
Closer |
12/3/04 |
476 |
$7.71 |
$16,193 |
$33.99 |
|
|
Alfie |
11/5/04 |
2,215 |
$6.22 |
$2,807 |
$13.40 |
|
|
Last Holiday |
1/13/06 |
2,514 |
$12.81 |
$5,094 |
$38.36 |
|
|
The Family Stone |
12/16/05 |
2,466 |
$12.52 |
$5,077 |
$60.06 |
|
|
Must Love Dogs |
7/29/05 |
2,505 |
$12.86 |
$5,132 |
$43.67 |
|
|
Love Actually |
11/7/03 |
576 |
$6.89 |
$11,955 |
$59.08 |
|
|
Under the Tuscan Sun |
9/26/03 |
1,226 |
$9.75 |
$7,953 |
$43.60 |
|
|
Two Weeks Notice |
12/20/02 |
2,755 |
$14.40 |
$5,227 |
$88.82 |
|
|
You've Got Mail |
12/18/98 |
2,691 |
$18.43 |
$6,849 |
$115.73 |
Why I Should See It: If there's a filmmaker who might be considered "master of the romantic comedy," that's likely to be Nancy Meyers, although Nora Ephron may disagree.
Why Not: I thought that the Queen Latifah movie Last Holiday was the last one, but now there's another holiday movie, so what's up with that?
Projections: $16 to 18 million opening; $70 million total.
UNACCOMPANIED
MINORS (Warner Bros.)Starring Lewis Black, Wilmer Valderrama, Tyler James Williams, Dyllan Christopher, Gina Mantegna, Quinn Shephard, Brett Kelly, Rob Corddry, Jessica Walter
Directed by Paul Feig (I Am David, writer on "Freaks and Geeks" and director of "Arrested Development" and "The Office"); Written by Jacob Meszaros and Mya Stark (P.E.)
Genre: Comedy, Family, Holiday
Rated PG
Tagline: "Silent night… yeah, right."
Plot Summary: Five kids get stranded at an airport in Chicago, all by themselves on Christmas Eve, but with the help of a flight attendant (Wilmer Valderrama) they must try to outwit a disgruntled security official (Lewis Black) to try to give them a joyous Christmas before getting them home.
Of Note: Director Paul Feig, best known for directing some of television's funniest and most popular comedies, makes a family holiday film starring Wilmer "That ‘70s Show" Valderrama and Lewis Black.
Pros:
With the holidays already in full swing, it makes sense that studios will want to release holiday-related comedies that can appeal to the whole family, and Unaccompanied Minors joins Santa Clause 3, Deck the Halls and a number of animated films in trying to bring in that family business. This one, directed by TV's Paul Feig, tries to capture the magic of John Hughes' comedies like Planes, Trains and Automobiles or Home Alone, even using a similar plot of stranded kids as the latter. It's kind of a strange departure into family humor for Feig, but considering Tim Allen's success in the genre, it's not surprising. With other live action family comedies already dropping out of theatres, this may be a good time for Unaccompanied Minors to open with the hopes of generating word-of-mouth before the busy movie week between Christmas and New Year's Day.
Cons:
There really is no star power beyond Lewis Black and Wilmer Valderrama, neither whom have proven themselves as box office draws from their last efforts (Accepted and Fast Food Nation). It's much better to release holiday movies before Thanksgiving since they'll do a lot of business that weekend and the weekends leading up to Christmas. With the strongest family movie in theatres, Happy Feet (also from Warner Bros), still holding strong after three weeks at #1, it might be hard for Unaccompanied Minors to get much attention, though it might benefit from that movie already being out for three weeks. While the movie looks like it could be a lot of fun, it doesn't look like the kind of movie that anyone might need to rush out to see. With so many people saving their money up for Christmas, a movie like this might not convince them to spend the bucks in early December, and it will rely heavily on word-of-mouth for holiday legs. (In the chart below, you can see the difference in the opening and gross of the three Home Alone movies, although the last one no longer starred Macaulay Culkin either.)
Comparisons:
|
Title |
Release Date |
Theater Count |
Weekend Box Office (in millions) |
Average |
Total Box Office |
|
Accepted |
8/18/06 |
2,914 |
$10.02 |
$3,440 |
$36.30 |
|
Home Alone 3 |
12/12/97 |
2,147 |
$5.09 |
$2,371 |
$30.64 |
|
Home Alone 2 |
11/20/92 |
2,222 |
$31.13 |
$14,010 |
$172.70 |
|
Home Alone |
11/16/90 |
1,202 |
$17.08 |
$14,210 |
$285.76 |
|
The Terminal |
6/18/04 |
2,811 |
$19.05 |
$6,778 |
$77.03 |
|
Jingle all the Way |
11/22/96 |
2,401 |
$12.11 |
$5,044 |
$60.59 |
|
Muppet Christmas Carol |
12/11/92 |
2,075 |
$5.01 |
$2,414 |
$27.28 |
Why I Should See It: Paul Feig has directed some of the funniest shows on television and he should bring the same sensibilities to this movie.
Why Not: Kids should love all the action and physical humor; parents might be a tougher sell, maybe because it will remind them too much of the Spielberg-Hanks flop The Terminal.
Projections: $8 to 10 million opening; $40 million total.
OTHER LIMITED RELEASES:
DAYS OF GLORY (INDIGENES) (The Weinstein Co.) The Algerian entry into the Oscars is this WWII drama about North Africans who come to France to fight off the invading Germans, only to get treated like second-class citizens by their commanding officers and fellow soldiers. It opens in New York and L.A. on Wednesday for a brief Oscar consideration run.
INLAND EMPIRE (518 Media) David Lynch's 3-hour epic follows an actress (Laura Dern) as she gets caught up in a mystery on the cursed set of her latest film. It will open in New York at the IFC Center on Wednesday, and it's a very strange experience indeed.
OFF THE BLACK (THINKFilm) James Ponsoldt's coming of age story of a teen (Trevor Morgan) who gets caught vandalizing the house of cranky, divorced Little League umpire, Ray Cooke (Nick Nolte). As their unlikely friendship slowly develops, Ray asks the boy to go to his 40th high school reunion, pretending to be his son. New York, L.A. on Friday.
SCREAMERS (Maya Releasing) Filmmaker Carla Garapedian (Lifting the Veil) makes a documentary about the history of genocide, featuring songs and performances from the rock band System of a Down, all of whom are of Armenian descent. It opens in L.A. on Friday and in New York on January 17.
Next week, the holiday season hits full throttle with two movies based on popular best-selling books for kids and teens, E.B. White's Charlotte's Web and Eragon. If those two weren't enough to stump the box office analysts, there's also the latest from Will Smith, the real-life drama The Pursuit of Happyness.
Copyright 2006 Edward Douglas
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