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Your Weekly Guide to New Movies for
December 15, 2006
By Edward Douglas -
Greetings and welcome back to the Weekend Warrior,
your weekly guide to the weekend's new movies. Tune in every Tuesday
for the latest look at the upcoming weekend, and then check back on
Friday for final projections based on actual theatre counts.
|
TW |
LW |
Title |
Weekend (in millions) |
Change |
# Of Theaters |
Average |
Week |
|
1 |
New |
$27.2 |
N/A |
3,020 |
$9.007 |
1 |
|
|
2 |
New |
$24.5 |
N/A |
2,852 |
$8,590 |
1 |
|
|
3 |
New |
$23.7 |
N/A |
3,566 |
$6,646 |
1 |
|
|
4 |
1 |
Apocalypto |
$9.0 |
-40% |
2,465 |
$3,651 |
2 |
|
5 |
3 |
The Holiday |
$7.9 |
-39% |
2,614 |
$3,022 |
2 |
|
6 |
2 |
Happy Feet |
$7.3 |
-43% |
3,335 |
$2,189 |
5 |
|
7 |
5 |
Blood Diamond |
$5.1 |
-41% |
1,910 |
$2,670 |
2 |
|
8 |
4 |
Casino Royale |
$5.0 |
-45% |
2,437 |
$2,052 |
5 |
|
9 |
8 |
The Nativity Story |
$3.5 |
-39% |
2,574 |
$1,360 |
3 |
|
10 |
7 |
Unaccompanied Minors |
$3.2 |
-44% |
2,775 |
$1,153 |
2 |
|
Est. Weekend Total |
Est. Avg. Drop-Off |
Est. Average PTA |
After two dud weekends in a row, the box office is likely to get a
much-needed injection thanks to two high-profile movies based on best-selling
children's books, Christopher Paolini's Eragon, a fairly recent
fantasy novel for teens, and E.B. White's Charlotte's Web, a
classic work of fiction and a bestselling children's books for five
decades that's beloved among a number of generations.
The former has the advantage since it will entice modern audiences with its
promise of lots of dragon-riding action and special effects, while the latter
will probably be the first choice for families with small children. Being
released so close to Christmas, it's doubtful that either will do huge numbers
this weekend, though one can expect that Charlotte's Web will have
a longer shelf-life in theatres as families go to see it over the holidays.
And then there's the new movie from Will Smith, The Pursuit of Happyness,
his first movie since 2005's Hitch, in which he portrays the real-life
Christopher Gardner, a down-and-out salesman who followed his dream to become
a stockbroker. It's opening in at least 500 fewer theatres than the other
movies and it's a subtler drama than Smith's fans are used to, but he does
have the fans, and his star power will help the movie make a mark against
the two movies geared primarily towards younger audiences. Expect older moviegoers,
women and Smith's African-American fans to be out in force for this one,
even if it might lose some of the latter audience in New York and L.A. to
the exclusive debut of the musical Dreamgirls (update: the latter
is already selling out many shows in its exclusive run!)
UPDATE: Things certainly have been
shaken up a bit since Tuesday because Pursuit is getting
more theatres than originally estimated, Eragon is
getting quite a bit less.Could be a squeaker between the two, though Charlotte's
Web can't really be counted out just yet either.
Also, look for a sneak preview of Warner
Bros.' football drama We Are Marshall in over
1,000 theatres on Saturday before it opens on December 22.
Last year, just a weekend after a huge opening by Disney's The Chronicles
of Narnia, Peter Jackson's long-awaited remake of King Kong opened
at #1 with $50 million after making $16 million on Weds. and
Thurs. It was pretty disappointing compared to the last two Lord
of the Rings movies, but it did take the top spot as Narnia dropped
51% in its second weekend. Also, 20th Century Fox
opened the holiday romantic comedy The Family Stone,
starring Sarah Jessica Parker, Diane Keaton and scrumptious "it girl" Rachel
McAdams; it made $12.5 million, about $5,000 per theatre. Also,
Ang Lee's Brokeback Mountain entered the Top 10 with $2.5
million in just 69 theatres. The Top 10 wound up with just under
$120 million,
which is slightly more than how things should do this weekend
barring a breakout.
DREAMGIRLS (DreamWorks/Paramount)
CHARLOTTE'S WEB (Paramount/Nickelodeon)|
Title |
Release Date |
Theater Count |
Previous Box Office (in millions) |
Weekend Box Office (in millions) |
Average |
Total Box Office |
|
Dreamer: Inspired by a True Story |
10/21/05 |
2,007 |
$9.18 |
$4,573 |
$32.70 |
|
|
Dr. Seuss' The Cat in the Hat |
11/21/03 |
3,464 |
$38.33 |
$11,065 |
$100.45 |
|
|
Babe: Pig in the City |
11/25/98 |
2,384 |
$6.27 |
$2,630 |
$18.32 |
|
|
Babe |
8/4/95 |
1,591 |
$8.74 |
$5,493 |
$63.66 |
|
|
Stuart Little 2 |
7/19/02 |
3,255 |
$15.12 |
$4,644 |
$64.15 |
|
|
Stuart Little |
12/17/99 |
2,878 |
$15.02 |
$5,219 |
$140.02 |
|
|
102 Dalmatians |
11/22/00 |
2,704 |
$19.89 |
$7,355 |
$66.90 |
|
|
101 Dalmatians |
11/29/96 |
2,794 |
$33.50 |
$11,990 |
$136.19 |
|
|
Cats and Dogs |
7/6/01 |
3,040 |
$14.05 |
$21.71 |
$7,140 |
$93.38 |
|
Garfield |
6/11/04 |
3,094 |
$21.73 |
$7,023 |
$75.18 |
ERAGON (20th Century
Fox)|
Title |
Release Date |
Theater Count |
Previous Box Office (in millions) |
Weekend Box Office (in millions) |
Average |
Total Box Office |
|
The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, The Witch, and The Wardrobe |
12/9/05 |
3,616 |
$65.56 |
$18,130 |
$291.17 |
|
|
Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events |
12/17/04 |
3,620 |
$30.06 |
$8,304 |
$118.01 |
|
|
The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Rings |
12/21/01 |
3,359 |
$27.91 |
$47.21 |
$14,055 |
$313.39 |
|
Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone |
11/16/01 |
3,672 |
$90.29 |
$24,590 |
$317.57 |
|
|
Reign of Fire |
7/12/02 |
2,629 |
$15.63 |
$5,946 |
$43.06 |
|
|
Dragonheart |
5/31/96 |
2,130 |
$15.03 |
$7,056 |
$51.36 |
|
|
Dungeons and Dragons |
12/8/00 |
2,078 |
$7.24 |
$3,484 |
$15.19 |
Why I Should See It: High flyin' dragon action!!!
Why Not: The movie looks great, but boy, the dialogue from the earlier trailer
was so corny that it's a bit worrisome.
Projections: $24 to 27 million opening; $100 million total.
THE PURSUIT OF HAPPYNESS (Sony)
Starring Will Smith, Thandie Newton, Jaden Christopher Syre Smith
Directed by Gabriele Muccino (The Last Kiss, the Italian one; Remember
Me, My Love, But Forever in my Mind); Written by Steve Conrad (The
Weather Man)
Genre: Drama
Rated PG-13
Tagline: "Inspired by a true story." (Boy, that's an original one.)
Plot Summary: Based on the true story of Chris Gardner (Will Smith), a
struggling salesman in San Francisco, who decides to follow his dream of becoming
a stock broker, taking an unpaid internship at Dean Witter, while having to live
on the streets with his young son (Jaden Smith).
Of Note: Will Smith returns to drama in a big way for this inspirational
true story of Christopher Gardner, a self-made millionaire who spent some time
living on the streets with his young son in the '80s.
Mini-Review: Just in time for the holidays, here's an uplifting
inspirational story that's sure to affect anyone who's ever been at their wit's
end about how to make ends meet. Chris Gardner's story follows the moving and
emotional journey of a man who wouldn't give up despite hitting rock bottom.
Despite the serious subject
matter, the movie isn't nearly as much of a downer as one might
expect, because Smith provides that same trademark charm and personality that
has made him such a beloved star. He also gets to show a wider range of emotions
than we've seen from him in some time, which is fine and good, except that
his 7-year-old son Jaden steals almost every scene they're in together right
from
under him
due to his carefree, youthful delivery. (The younger Smith is almost guaranteed
stardom on the level of Dakota Fanning if he continues to find roles.) As enjoyable
as the film is, there are a few times when it gets a bit too sweet and sentimental,
making for an erratic experience, but Smith and director Gabriele Muccino do
a good job
holding it together with a tightly-paced story. Muccino should also be commended
for the film's distinct look and feel, like a movie of the era, with a great
soundtrack of vintage soul tunes combined with a tasteful score by Andrea
Guerra. Heartwarming at times, heartbreaking
at others, you could do far worse this season than this touching tale. Rating: 8.5/10
Pros: Will Smith has made a name for himself as one of the biggest
action and comedy stars in the world, having starred in mega-blockbusters
like Men in Black, Independence Day, I, Robot and
last year's Hitch. Now, he's back in "serious actor" mode, taking
on a dramatic real-life story of a man who lost it all but
followed his dream to success with his young son along for the ride.
For
Smith, it's a chance to stretch a bit as an actor, as well as a chance
for him to work with his 7-year-old son Jaden, appearing in his first
movie
role. The last time Smith took on a dramatic role was for
Michael Mann's biopic Ali, which got Smith an Oscar nomination,
but since then he's shown that he can even open non-action
movies big, such as last
year's romantic comedy Hitch, one of the biggest movies
of early '05. This is Smith's first movie in over 18 months
and there
must be
a lot of anticipation by his fans for a new movie. He has
a bit of added help at bringing in women thanks to a supporting
part
by Thandie
Newton
as his wife; Newton first found success in the "Oprah movie" Beloved.
The movie has been getting tons of early Oscar buzz for Smith,
who some consider to be one of the frontrunners, something
that will surely help drive up interest
among older moviegoers. There's also a lot of relevance between
Christopher Gardner's story from the early '80s with what
many Katrina survivors
had to endure, though at least there are a few uplifting
moments in this to make
up for the tragic way the bottom fell out of Gardner's life.
There's no denying that Will Smith has a huge African-American
fanbase that will pick this movie over the other two, much like
they did with
2004's Ray,
which opened in just over 2,000 theatres and still made $20 million.
The following year, Tyler Perry's Diary of a Mad Black Woman,
a comedy of sorts about a similarly down-and-out woman, opened
with $22 million in
even fewer theatres. Pursuit is opening in 2,500 theaters,
about 1,000 fewer than Hitch, but that lower theatre count
will just mean more business in those theatres. Smith crossed over
to non-African-American
actors
a long time ago, and this inspirational story could certainly strike
a chord with churchgoers and those looking for a positive spiritual
journey like
Gardner's.
Gardner wrote a bestselling book about his experiences, which will
probably be another reason for people to see the movie beyond the
appeal of Smith,
and both Gardner and Smith have been regulars on women's shows
like "Oprah" to
promote the book and movie.
Even though this is a drama, there are plenty of fun moments, particularly
involving Smith and his adorable kid, and for the fans who have
followed Smith since "The Fresh Prince of Bel-Air," there's even
a Rubik's Cube scene!
Cons:
There's a reason why Smith is a big box office star, and that's
because he appears in movies like Hitch and Independence Day,
entertaining high concept films that allow him to do his usual
wisecracking schtick
that his fans love. The Pursuit of Happyness isn't that.
It's a serious, emotional journey, and though there's a positive
inspirational
message in
Chris Gardner's story, it might seem like a bit of a downer for
Smith's normal fans. Jim Carrey has done a number of dramas but
the last two
times he went
that route over Christmas (Man on the Moon, The Majestic)
they made less in total than some of his movies make opening weekend.
Director Gabriele Muccino is an unknown commodity having done most
of his films in Italy starring Italian actors. This is a big movie
for him,
since
he's working with one of America's #1 superstars and Smith has
shown a lot of confidence in him to bring the emotion necessary
for the movie
to work.
Do people really want to see a movie about the drama involved with
a homeless man trying to make it and get his life back on track?
To some
people, the
story might hit way too close to home, and if it doesn't, they
might not be as interested to see how one man got out from being
in the dumps.
Either
way, it's a strange thing to want to see over the Christmas holidays.
Comparisons:
|
Title |
Release Date |
Theater Count |
Previous Box Office (in millions) |
Weekend Box Office (in millions) |
Average |
Total Box Office |
|
Hitch |
2/11/05 |
3,575 |
$43.14 |
$12,068 |
$177.58 |
|
|
Ali |
12/28/01 |
2,446 |
$20.03 |
$14.71 |
$6,014 |
$58.18 |
|
Ray |
10/29/04 |
2,006 |
$20.04 |
$9,990 |
$75.24 |
|
|
Diary of a Mad Black Woman |
2/25/05 |
1,483 |
$21.91 |
$14,771 |
$50.38 |
|
|
The Terminal |
6/18/04 |
2,811 |
$19.05 |
$6,778 |
$77.03 |
|
|
The Majestic |
12/21/01 |
2,361 |
$4.90 |
$2,077 |
$27.80 |
|
|
Man on the Moon |
12/24/99 |
2,079 |
$4.76 |
$7.52 |
$3,617 |
$34.58 |
|
The Weather Man |
10/28/05 |
1,510 |
$4.25 |
$2,814 |
$12.47 |
|
|
Falling Down |
2/26/93 |
1,220 |
$8.72 |
$7,148 |
$40.90 |
BREAKING
AND ENTERING (The Weinstein Company)
THE
GOOD GERMAN (Warner Bros.)
HOME
OF THE BRAVE (MGM)
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