Preview and Projections for the Weekend of September 30, 2005

By Edward Douglas -

Greetings and welcome back to the Weekend Warrior, your weekly guide to the weekend's new movies. Tune in every Tuesday for the latest look at the upcoming weekend, and then check back on Friday for any last minute updates and reviews.

WEEKEND PROJECTIONS - final update 9.29.05

This weekend is either the end of September or the beginning of October, but however you look at it, the studios are starting to dump more and more movies into theatres trying to clear the coffers for the impending holiday movie season. Although his TV series "Firefly" was cancelled during its first season, Joss Whedon has high hopes that his sci-fi Western Serenity will be able to find audiences in theatres, especially with a bigger movie budget. It already has a dedicated legion of fans, the Browncoats, who’ll flock to see it opening weekend, and it should do well enough to be beat Flightplan and Tim Burton’s Corpse Bride in their second weekends. The Jessica Alba-Paul Walker action-thriller Into the Blue will get more screens and it has two strong things to attract young guys and girls…its semi-clad stars…but it also has a bit of a stink from being a leftover from MGM that’s been sitting on the shelf for a while. Opening in only 1,000 theatres, Walt Disney’s sports drama The Greatest Game Ever Played about 1913 golf hero Francis Ouimet, as played by Shia "Holes" LaBeouf, could be the weekend’s underdog, if it doesn’t go the way of Bobby Jones, Stroke of Genius. The rest of the weekend’s wide releases are films expanding after limited runs. David Cronenberg’s A History of Violence, starring Viggo Mortensen, Maria Bello and Ed Harris, stands the best chance at cracking the Top 10, while two films based on works most commonly seen on stage may have to settle for spots just outside of the Top 10: Proof, starring Gwyneth Paltrow and Anthony Hopkins, and Charles Dickens’ Oliver Twist, starring Ben Kingsley, will both expand into moderately wide releases. (Update: Proof will only be expanding into 240 theatres, so all the work I put into the write-up below was for naught. Thanks, Miramax.) Oliver Twist should end up with around $2 million or slightly less while Proof might add another $1 mllion this weekend.

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SERENITY (Universal Pictures)
Starring: Nathan Fillion, Gina Torres, Alan Tudyk, Morena Baccarin, Adam Baldwin, Jewel Staite, Sean Maher, Summer Glau, Ron Glass, Chiwetel Ejiofor
Director: Joss Whedon ("Buffy the Vampire Slayer," "Angel")
Screenwriter(s): Joss Whedon (Buffy the Vampire Slayer, Toy Story, Alien: Resurrection, Titan A.E.)
Genres: Science Fiction, Adventure
Rated PG-13
Theatre Count: 2,188
Tagline: "The future is worth fighting for."
Mini-Review: Granted that I had no idea who all these people were, why they spoke in one-liners and why they have a living weapon who looks like Alannis Morissette, but this is pretty cut-and-dry science fiction in the "Star Wars" and "Star Trek" vein. The only difference is that it stars television actors who don't have the on-screen charisma of a Harrison Ford or Ewan McGregor, the exception being Chiwetel Ejiofor, who once again plays a great bad guy. Still, the action and effects are great, and it was fun enough for me to want to crack open this "Firefly" DVD rather than selling it on EBay. Rating: 7 out of 10

Joss Whedon, creator of "Buffy the Vampire Slayer", brings his quickly cancelled television show "Firefly" to the big screen, as Captain Mal Reynolds and the crew of his transport ship Serenity take on a new adventure.

It’s not often where a television show that lasted less than a season is deemed worthy of a feature film, but when you’re talking about Joss Whedon, it may not seem so weird considering that he was able to turn a movie that was far from successful into a hugely popular television show. It makes some sort of strange sense that he should be able to do the same thing in reverse.

Back in the early ‘90s, when Whedon wrote the screenplay for the film Buffy the Vampire Slayer, he probably had no idea that this simple idea would actually work better on television than it did in theatres. Whedon’s success was far from overnight, though, as he spent years in Hollywood working as a screenwriter on uncredited rewrites and doing work-for-hire. Serenity isn’t even Whedon’s first science fiction project for the big screen, since he also penned Alien: Resurrection and the animated film Titan A.E. He also got an Oscar nomination for Pixar’s Toy Story, a film that would forever change the face of animation.

In 2002, after spinning Buffy’s paramour angel onto his own show, Whedon turned his eye to science fiction, creating the show "Firefly" on Fox’s Friday night television line-up. Although it found many early fans, it wasn’t enough to keep it on the air past its first season, although it has continued to build a strong fanbase among genre fans who appreciate Whedon’s own geekboy status. This may have made it easier for Whedon to convince Universal Pictures to finance a big budget adaptation of the show, named after the show’s transport ship Serenity. Although he’s directed many episodes of his various television shows, Serenity will be Whedon’s feature length film debut.

Whedon brought the entire cast from the show back for the movie, only adding one known star to the cast, that being Chiwetel Ejiofor, best known for his starring role in Steven Frears’ Dirty Pretty Things, and playing the villain in John Singleton’s summer hit Four Brothers. Really, the only actor from the show who has done anything major is Gina Torres, who appeared in the two Matrix sequels.

Science fictions fans may be looking for a new obsession now that George Lucas’ Star Wars is over and Gene Roddenberry’s Star Trek films have pretty much dried up after the inability of Star Trek: Nemesis to make waves. They’re likely to take this film to heart because it uses some of the same sensibilities as those two sci-fi staples. Unfortunately, the movie may have a hard time finding anyone who is not already a fan of the show, since the title doesn’t immediately shout out "Science Fiction!" As a matter of fact, having a different title than the television show might pose a problem, since it takes away from the name brand value that has helped the Star Trek films.

Then again, the short-lived show already has its own "fan gang" in the Browncoats, named after the show and film’s galactic outcasts. The show has found a lot more fans after its cancellation thanks to word-of-mouth among this group and the release of the complete series on DVD, which has sold over a million copies to date.

To build word-of-mouth among these new and old fans over the course of the summer, Universal presented a few dozen sneak previews targeted towards Whedon’s Browncoats, all of them selling out quickly and the tickets showing up on EBay for a premium price. Universal also held a special presentation for the movie at this year’s Comic-Con International in San Diego to a capacity crowd of over 6,000 fans. Obviously, the fans of Whedon’s work on "Buffy" are itching to see these characters brought back on the big screen, so expect the Browncoats, even those who have already seen it, to rush out opening weekend to show their support for Whedon. Few others may get what the hubbub is about, which may be why Univeral has given the film a smaller release into less than 2,500 theatres. That alone is likely to keep it under the $20 million mark this weekend.

Related Comparisons
Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Titan A.E.	6/16/00	2,734		$9.38	$3,431	$22.65
Alien: Resurrection	11/28/97	2,415		$15.69	$6,497	$47.76
Buffy the Vampire Slayer	7/31/92	1,959		$4.52	$2,307	$14.23
Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow	9/17/04	3,170		$15.58	$4,915	$37.76
The Fifth Element	5/9/97	2,500		$17.03	$6,812	$63.55
Star Trek: Nemesis	12/13/02	2,711		$18.51	$6,828	$42.69
Star Trek: Insurrection	12/11/98	2,620		$22.05	$8,416	$70.12

Why I Should See It: Whedon’s built quite a reputation as one of the finest genre writers around and Serenity should fill a void amongst sci-fi fans left by the end of the Star Wars saga earlier this year.
Why Not: There’s a good reason why the television show was cancelled…no one was watching it!

Bottom Line: Universal is taking a big chance on Joss Whedon by funding such a big project and then releasing it into such a busy weekend in less than 2,500 theatres, but they must be confident that Whedon’s diehard fans, the Browncoats, will go see the movie just to help support him. Expect most of that business to happen opening weekend though, as word-of-mouth might not spread that far beyond them.

Projection: $14 to 16 million opening weekend on its way to just under $40 million.

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THE GREATEST GAME EVER PLAYED (Walt Disney Pictures)
Starring: Shia LaBeouf, Stephen Dillane, Elias Koteas, Josh Flitter, Peyton List, Marnie McPhail, Stephen Marcus
Director: Bill Paxton (Frailty)
Screenwriter: Mark Frost (Fantastic Four, Twin Peaks: Fire Walk with Me, "Twin Peaks," "Hill Street Blues," author of the novel of the same name)
Genres: Sports, Drama
Rated PG
Theatre Count: 1,014
Mini-Review: Putting aside that golf is probably the most boring sport to watch for an extended period of time, the attempts to liven it up with insane amounts of CGI ends up being part of its downfall. The other is that Shia isn't strong enough an actor to carry this film off as Ouimet, and he's often overshadowed by his far more talented and lesser known supporting cast, especially young Josh Flitter. The problem with this kind of movie is that there's no real suspense or surprises, especially if you already know the well-documented outcome of this historic game. Other than that, there's only two ways things can go, either the shots will go in or they won't, and that can be said for most of this movie. Rating: 5 out of 10

Back in 1913, the nation was caught up in the golf course battle at the U.S. Open between a 20-year-old amateur golfer named Francis Ouimet (Shia LaBeouf) and the reigning British pro Harvey Vardon (Stephen Dillane).

Based on the best-selling book by Mark Frost, who also wrote the screenplay, The Greatest Game Ever Played continues Disney’s tradition of sports dramas that included films like Remember the Titans, The Rookie and last year’s Miracle. Unlike those films, this story takes place in the early 20^th Century involving a sport that is not quite as popular in this country as football, baseball or even hockey. Unlike Miracle, which dealt with the American hockey team’s trials during the 1980 Olympics, the events in this movie take place before most moviegoers were alive, but it will obviously try to capitalize on the success of Universal’s Seabiscuit in 2003. During the summer, Ron Howard and Russell Crowe also tried to do this with Cinderella Man, but despite their combined Oscar credit, the movie did not do nearly as well as expected. The thing about Seabiscuit was that it was based on a huge bestseller that kept America captivated, and Tobey Maguire was far better known as a star, mainly thanks to Spider-Man, than this movie’s leading man, Shia LaBeouf.

The 19-year-old actor has been a Disney mainstay since appearing on the Disney Channel show "Even Stevens" and in 2003, he starred in Disney and Walden Media’s film based on the popular teen book Holes, which surprisingly, had absolutely nothing to do with golf. That same year, Shia also got attention when he appeared on the HBO reality show "Project Greenlight" as the star of the failed indie film Battle of Shaker Heights. Since then, he’s become more known as a comic sidekick from movies like Charlie’s Angels: Full Throttle, I, Robot, and this year’s Constantine, none of them which really did much for his career. Younger fans of LaBeouf’s comedic work will probably not be very interested in this film.

The film is directed by actor Bill Paxton (Titanic), working with a far bigger budget for his second film despite the disappointing showing of his psychological thriller Frailty in 2002. His decision to fill the film with mostly unknown actors means there’s a lot more pressure on LaBeouf to deliver as its only known star.

There’s also added pressure on both of them due to the lack of a hit golf film in the last ten years, particularly dramas. Comedies about the sport like Caddyshack and Adam Sandler’s Happy Gilmore are still a lot more popular then serious films about the sport and its legends, although Kevin Costner had a decent hit in 1996 with his own golf movie Tin Cup. Since then, there’s only been last year’s disappointing Bobby Jones, Stroke of Genius starring The Passion of The Christ’s Jim Caviezel. Even the pairing of Will Smith and Matt Damon in 2000 didn’t do much to help the golf drama Legend of Bagger Vance find an audience.

What The Greatest Game does have are some rave reviews and great commercials and trailers that show off the CGI that makes the sport seem more exciting. The moderate release into just over 1,000 theatres does not bode well for Disney’s confidence in the wide-spanning interest in the film, although Disney has far more marketing clout than the company that released Bobby Jones, Stroke of Genius, which might help make some difference in how it fares its opening weekend. Since it’s a film geared more towards older male viewers, expect it to do decent business despite a slow opening, since that audience doesn’t necessarily rush out to see movies opening weekend.

Related Comparisons
Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Holes	4/18/03	2,331	$16.30	$6,993	$67.38
Bobby Jones, Stroke of Genius	4/30/04	1,332	$1.23	$926	$2.70
Legend of Bagger Vance	11/3/00	2,061	$11.52	$5,590	$30.70
Tin Cup	8/16/96	2,012	$10.13	$5,035	$53.85
Happy Gilmore	2/16/96	2,022	$8.51	$4,209	$38.62
Cinderella Man	6/3/05	2,812	$18.32	$6,515	$61.60
Miracle	2/6/04	2,605	$19.38	$7,439	$64.37
Seabiscuit	7/25/03	1,987	$20.85	$10,495	$120.20
The Rookie	3/29/02	2,511	$16.02	$6,381	$75.60
Remember the Titans	9/29/00	1,865	$20.91	$11,212	$115.60
Frailty	4/12/02	1,497	$4.21	$2,806	$13.08

Why I Should See It: Actually, it’s a pretty interesting story about a time in the sport of golf that few non-players know much about.
Why Not: But it’s an interesting story about golf…Yaaaaaaawn.

Bottom Line: Disney is trying to continue their tradition of great sports movies, but Remember the Titans and The Rookie succeeded based on their stars and the more popular sports covered by them. Although this got a PG rating, it’s doubtful that parents will bring their kids as they did with Holes or The Rookie, which got a G-rating, because they’re likely to be bored by the sport and the time period.

Projection: $3 to 5 million on its way to $16 million total.

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A HISTORY OF VIOLENCE (New Line Films)
Starring: Viggo Mortensen, Maria Bello, Ed Harris, William Hurt, Ashton Holmes, Peter MacNeill
Director: David Cronenberg (The Fly, Dead Ringers, The Brood, Scanners, Crash, Spider, eXistenZ, The Dead Zone, Naked Lunch)
Screenwriter: Josh Olson (Infested)
Genres: Drama, Thriller
Rated R
Theatre Count: 1,340
Tagline: "Tom Stall had the perfect life…until he became a hero."
MY REVIEW

Small town family man Tom Stall (Viggo Mortensen) has his life turned upside down when he stops a robbery at his diner and gangsters show up in town claiming that he’s someone else.

Based on the 1997 Paradox Press graphic novel from John Wagner and Vince Locke, A History of Violence marks David Cronenberg’s triumphant return to studio movies, as he makes one of his most accessible films in years, relatively speaking. Although the original graphic novel comes from the stable that produced Road to Perdition, a book which spawned a $100 million Tom Hanks movie, this is a very different animal, since it’s really Cronenberg’s answer to gangster films.

Toronto native David Cronenberg first made waves in the ‘70s and ‘80s with his gory horror films like The Brood and Scanners, before being hired for more high profile projects like his uber-grossout remake of the sci-fi/horror classic The Fly, still his best known movie to date. He’s never been a stranger to adaptations, having brought Stephen King’s The Dead Zone, William S. Buroughs’ Naked Lunch, and Patrick McGrath’s Spider to the big screen.

Cronenberg has one of his strongest casts yet, led by Viggo Mortensen, best known as the warrior Aragorn from Peter Jackson’s version of J.R. Tolkien’s The Lord of the Rings trilogy. Mortensen was making movies for years before then including the murder drama A Perfect Murder with Michael Douglas. After the conclusion of the Rings trilogy, Mortensen starred as a cowboy in the horse race movie Hidalgo, which did decent business, solidifying Mortensen’s stature as a leading man.

He’s joined by Maria Bello, former "E.R." star, who received critical praise for her role opposite William H. Macy in 2003’s The Cooler. Since then, she’s starred in thrillers like Secret Window and this year’s remake of Assault on Precinct 13. She’ll be bringing a lot of sex appeal and her A-Game acting chops for her role as Viggo’s wife.

Related Comparisons
Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Hidalgo	3/5/04	3,063		$18.83	$6,147	$67.29
The Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Rings	12/21/01	3,359	$27.91	$47.21	$14,055	$313.39
A Perfect Murder	6/5/98	2,845		$16.62	$5,842	$67.63
Assault on Precinct 13	1/21/05	2,297	$1.54	$6.50	$2,831	$19.98
Secret Window	3/12/04	3,018		$18.24	$6,043	$47.78
The Cooler	11/28/03	11	$0.04	$0.13	$11,725	$5.96
The Human Stain	10/31/03	160		$1.03	$6,463	$5.38
Radio	10/25/03	3,074		$13.30	$4,326	$52.28
The Hours	1/17/03	402	$3.78	$4.64	$11,555	$41.60

The two most noteworthy supporting players are Ed Harris and William Hurt, two actors who both turn 55 this year and whom have been nominated for multiple Oscars in the past. For A History of Violence, they are both playing against type as the gangsters plaguing Tom Stall and his family. William Hurt is best known for playing a nice guy in movies like The Accidental Tourist, Children of a Lesser God, and Kiss of the Spider-Woman, for which he won an Oscar, plus he starred in M. Night Shyamalan’s most recent movie The Village. Harris has received four Oscar nominations, three for supports in The Hours, Apollo 13 and The Truman Show, as well as the lead for Pollock, which he also directed. He also had strong supporting roles in Ron Howard’s Oscar winning A Beautiful Mind and the 2003 films The Human Stain and Radio.

This past weekend, A History of Violence opened in 14 theatres in major cities where most of Cronenberg’s diehard fans reside, and it earned a respectable $36,000 per theatre to make over $500 thousand. That’s twice as much as Spider made its opening weekend in twice as many theatres. New Line seems convinced that the star power will allow Cronenberg’s latest to expand into over 1,000 theatres and still do decent business. Since most of Cronenberg’s popularity lies in larger cities and college towns, there’s a chance that the business will be spread fairly thinly among the theatres, which will greatly bring down its average in wide release, although the buzz surrounding the movie may be enough to bring people out to this movie that may not have made much attention to Cronenberg in the past.

Related Comparisons
Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Spider	2/28/03	27	$0.01	$0.19	$7,013	$1.64
eXistenZ	4/16/99	256		$0.71	$2,773	$2.61
Dead Ringers	9/23/88	1,042		$3.01	$2,891	$9.13
The Fly	8/15/86	1,195		$7.01	$5,863	$40.46
The Dead Zone	10/21/83	1,293		$4.55	$3,523	$20.77
Road to Perdition	7/12/02	1,797		$22.08	$12,267	$104.05

Why I Should See It: You can’t miss David Cronenberg getting a chance to work with a decent budget and a great cast at the same time!
Why Not: The violence of the title will probably be far too graphic for some people.

Bottom Line: While this is more mainstream than Cronenberg’s last few movies, it’s still a rather difficult movie to get through and it will probably do better in the big cities in which it opened last weekend than in the smaller towns, like the one depicted in the movie. Still, it probably will do better this weekend than most of Cronenberg’s other recent films have done in total.

Projection: $5 to 6 million on its way to $18 million.

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INTO THE BLUE (Columbia Pictures/MGM)
Starring: Paul Walker, Jessica Alba, Scott Caan, Ashley Scott, Josh Brolin, Tyson Beckford
Director: John Stockwell (Blue Crush, Crazy/Beautiful)
Screenwriter: Matt Johnson (Torque)
Genres: Action, Drama, Thriller
Rated PG-13
Theatre Count: 2,789
Tagline: "It’s Jessica Alba…in a bikini!" (No, not really, but it will sell the film better than anything they might come up with, and sure enough, the real tagline is "Treasure has its price." And so did MGM.)
Mini-Review: Once you get past the gorgeous, well-tanned and quite vacant characters, this made for the MTV generation--the current one, that is--thriller isn't that terrible. The last 20 minutes are actually pretty exciting, though you may be disappointed if you hope that Scott Caan's annoying character will get eaten by sharks. Still, for a movie about diving, don't go in expecting anything too deep. Rating: 6 out of 10

Living a tranquil but broke existence in the Bahamas, diver Jared Cole (Paul Walker) and his girlfriend Samantha Nicholson (Jessica Alba) are on the verge of their greatest treasure-hunting find when they happen upon a crashed plane filled with drugs. Though they try to keep it a secret, Jared’s friend Bryce (Scott Caan) ends up getting them in trouble with drug smugglers who want their cargo back.

I keep looking at the title and posters for this film expecting to see the words "From Peter Benchley" in there, but nope, while this underwater thriller seems like something Benchley might come up with—he’s the guy who wrote the novels Jaws and The Deep--this is an original film, actually a leftover from MGM Pictures that Sony Pictures inherited when they bought the fledgling studio earlier this year.

Despite its questionable roots, Sony has done well by the movie with a decent trailer and lots of ads. They obviously know that Ms. Alba is quite hot right now after two back-to-back fanboy hits with Sin City and Fantastic Four. Actually, she’s always been quite popular with the guys, especially since James Cameron picked her to star in his FOX action-drama "Dark Angel." Alba’s first starring film in 2003 was more geared towards younger girls, as she played dance choreographer Honey, but she’s been able to garner a fairly wide range of fans, from teens to dirty older men who like ogling her in skimpy costumes. Of course, Into the Blue will offer many chances for guys to admire Ms. Alba in a bikini, something made quite clear from the trailers, which featured those images over actually giving away the whole plot, which is usually the case with this sort of movie.

By comparison, Paul Walker has had the strangest career for any actor. After being discovered by Rob Cohen for The Skulls, Walker starred in the two hugely successful Fast and the Furious movies, and then a few months after each one, he appeared in an action-thriller that would bomb, first Joy Ride and then Timeline. Obviously, he played a part of 2 Fast 2 Furious’ success in doing well even without Vin Diesel or Rob Cohen, but it makes you wonder whether or not people go to see his movies for him. He’s already been replaced by Alba’s Fantastic Four costar Chris Evans in most of the hotshot pretty boy roles he used to get, and that’s after rumors that Walker was up for playing the Human Torch himself. Because of Walker’s questionable status as a box office draw, this will mainly come down to Alba, who is currently very hot indeed. (It also stars Scott Caan, one of the brothers from Ocean's 11 and the son of James Caan. But he doesn’t wear a bikini.)

Alba and Walker
Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Fantastic Four	7/8/05	3,602		$56.06	$15,564	$153.49
Sin City	4/1/05	3,230		$29.12	$9,016	$74.10
Honey	12/5/03	1,942		$12.86	$6,620	$30.00
Timeline	11/28/03	2,787	$3.98	$8.44	$3,028	$19.44
2 Fast 2 Furious	6/6/03	3,408		$50.47	$14,810	$127.08
Joy Ride	10/5/01	2,497		$7.35	$2,944	$21.97
The Fast and the Furious	6/22/01	2,628		$40.09	$15,255	$144.51

The last tropical action-thriller was New Line’s After the Sunset, directed by Rush Hour’s Brett Ratner, and that only did moderate business, maybe since the thought of teaming Pierce Brosnan with Woody Harrelson never really worked beyond its original pitch. Connections might also be drawn between this film and Renny Harlin’s shark thriller Deep Blue Sea or even Open Water, because those who like shark attacks will enjoy that part of this film.

Then again, Into the Blue is about what you’d expect when you team the writer of Torque with the director of the surfing movie Blue Crush, and it will probably be fighting the general lack of interest audiences seem to have with movies that look like other movies. Its mostly teen target audience will likely be choosing between this and Universal’s Serenity, and some of the hipper, cooler kids will probably go for this one rather than the Joss Whedon geek-fest. Since Into the Blue is getting the most theatres this weekend—over 2,700--it won’t have to make so much in each one to have a decent showing this weekend either.

Oh, and did we mention that Jessica Alba wears a bikini in the movie yet?

Related Comparisons
Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Torque	1/16/04	2,463		$11.44	$4,646	$21.18
Blue Crush	8/16/02	3,002		$14.17	$4,720	$40.12
After the Sunset	11/12/04	2,819		$11.10	$3,938	$28.33
Open Water	8/6/04	2,709	$3.08	$11.41	$4,213	$30.17
Deep Blue Sea	7/30/99	2,854	$6.06	$19.11	$6,696	$73.65

Why I Should See It: Jessica Alba in a bikini. Duh.
Why Not: Because that only makes up about 10 minutes of the entire movie.

Bottom Line: While pairing Paul Walker and Jessica Alba in an action-thriller that allows them to show off a lot of skin would seem like a sure-fire hit to bring in horny teens, both male and female, there’s a lot of baggage that comes along with this movie after being picked up by Sony as part of their MGM deal. It doesn’t really seem strong enough a premise to do well in a busy weekend, and it’s more likely to do better business on DVD where guys can watch their favorite scenes over-and-over, most likely with 20-minute breaks in between.

Projection: $11 to 13 million opening weekend on its way to $35 million.

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PROOF (Miramax Films)
Starring: Gwyneth Paltrow, Anthony Hopkins, Jake Gyllenhaal, Hope Davis
Director: John Madden (Shakespeare in Love)
Screenwriter(s): David Auburn (wrote the play), Rebecca Miller (Personal Velocity, The Ballad of Jack and Rose)
Genres: Drama
Rated PG-13
Theatre Count: 240 (Well, that kills the whole point of writing this one up, doesn't it?)
Tagline: "The biggest risk in life is not taking one."
Mini-Review: Although there are some fine performances on display, it's understandable why it's taken so long for this filmed stageplay to see the light of day. After all, it mostly deals with a subject matter that will give many people a headache and eyes to glaze over: math. While Paltrow is good, she spends most of this in a vocal range that will cause pain in delicate ears, while Hope Davis is proving herself to be an actress of the highest caliber playing her sister. Sadly, anyone who finds math boring won't be swayed much by this drama and all of its mathematical technobabble. Rating: 6 out of 10

OLIVER TWIST (Sony/TriStar Pictures)
Starring: Barney Clark, Sir Ben Kingsley, Harry Eden, Edward Hardwicke, Jamie Foreman, Leanne Row, Jeremy Swift, Ian McNeice, Mark Strong
Director: Roman Polanski (The Pianist, The Ninth Gate, Rosemary’s Baby, Frantic, Chinatown)
Screenwriter: Ronald Harwood (The Pianist, Being Julia, The Statement, Taking Sides)
Genres: Drama, Family, Literature
Rated PG
Theatre Count: 779
MY REVIEW

In Proof, Gwyneth Paltrow plays the daughter of a dead mathematician (Anthony Hopkins) who finds a groundbreaking mathematical proof in his office and claims it as her own.
Oliver Twist is Roman Polanski's adaptation of Charles Dickens’ classic tale of an orphan (Barney Clark) who goes from one home to the next, eventually ending up with a band of pick pockets led by the miser Fagin (Sir Ben Kingsley).

Two films based on works more commonly seen on stage expand from their limited releases into hundreds of theatres nationwide this weekend, both of them celebrating the return of two directors of Oscar winning films.

Miramax Films finally releases the film version of Proof, based on the stageplay by Pullitzer winning playwright David Auburn, who adapted it along with Henry Miller’s daughter, Rebecca, who has made a name for herself as a filmmaker with Personal Velocity and The Ballad of Jack and Rose. Originally, it was supposed to come out last December but then it was delayed, and now Miramax is trying to get it out before the Weinsteins leave Disney at the end of the month. The film is a labor of love for Gwyneth Paltrow, who appeared in London’s West End in Auburn’s play, directed by her Shakespeare in Love helmer John Madden, who she brought on to direct the film version.

Meanwhile, legendary filmmaker Roman Polanski returns after winning an Oscar for his direction on the holocaust drama The Pianist, reunited with screenwriter Ronald Harwood, for an adaptation of Charles Dickens’ Oliver Twist. The literary classic has been a mainstay on television and films for most of the last century with many productions over the years, the most famous ones being the 1948 classic starring Alec Guiness as Fagin, and the 1968 movie based on the musical Oliver! To bring his own version of 18^th Century England to life, Polanski brought on board legendary actor Sir Ben Kingsley in the role as Fagin, and a cast of mostly unknown actors.

Proof comes to the table with more star power as Paltrow returns for her first movie in over a year, the last one being 2004’s retro sci-fi film Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow with Jude Law. The reason for her absence was that she wanted to take a break from acting to take care of her daughter, Apple, but apparently, her return is in full effect as she has a few projects in various stages of development and production including roles as Peggy Lee and even Marlene Dietrich. Paltrow has shied away from mainstream pictures in recent years, with only Sky Captain and the Farrelly Brothers’ Shallow Hal with Jack Black jumping out. Proof is more in the vein of her 2002 indie drama Possession, although she has proven herself to be a draw by bringing audiences in for other Miramax films like Shakespeare in Love and The Talented Mr. Ripley.

Paltrow has additional support from a strong ensemble cast that includes Sir Anthony Hopkins, Jake Gyllenhaal and Hope Davis. Hopkins hasn’t had very much luck with his non-Hannibal Lecter movies and his last few films, The Human Stain and Oliver Stone’s Alexander were both duds despite equally impressive casts. Jake Gyllenhaal last appeared in the summer blockbuster The Day After Tomorrow, but with Proof, he returns to his earlier dramas like Donnie Darko, The Good Girl and Moonlight Mile. Gyllenhaal has a busy year ahead, appearing in Sam Mendes’ war drama Jarhead and Ang Lee’s critically praised Brokeback Mountain with early buzz suggesting he may get an Oscar nomination for one of them. Hope Davis got the most attention, as well as a Golden Globe nomination, for her supporting role in American Splendor, but she also appeared in Alexander Payne’s About Schmidt with Jack Nicholson, and she also has a bunch of upcoming projects this year including The Matador and The Weather Man. Despite their critical acclaim, if you look at the recent films of Paltrow’s supporting cast, particularly the dramas, none of them have grossed $40 million. It’s rather unlikely this movie might do that type of box office without any Oscar buzz.

Proof Comparisons
Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
A View From the Top	3/21/03	2,508		$7.01	$2,795	$15.61
Possession	8/16/02	270		$1.58	$5,833	$10.10
Bounce	11/17/00	1,918		$11.42	$5,954	$36.78
Shakespeare in Love	1/22/99	655	$22.25	$3.63	$5,542	$100.24
Alexander	11/26/04	2,445	$8.15	$13.69	$5,598	$34.29
The Human Stain	10/31/03	160		$1.03	$6,463	$5.38
Bad Company	6/7/02	2,944		$11.01	$3,739	$30.16
Hearts in Atlantis	9/28/01	1,751		$9.53	$5,440	$24.19
Moonlight Mile	10/4/02	434	$0.45	$1.88	$4,338	$6.79
The Good Girl	8/30/02	667	$3.74	$3.80	$5,704	$13.89
Captain Corelli's Mandolin	8/17/01	1,595		$7.21	$4,520	$25.53

While Proof obviously has star power to spare, Oliver Twist stars newcomer Barney Clarke in the title role, although the real name draw will be actor Sir Ben Kingsley, who is working again with Polanski after their earlier collaboration, Death and the Maiden. In the last few years, Sir Ben’s choices have been somewhat questionable, as he made the leap to back-to-back big budget bombs like Thunderbirds, Suspect Zero and Ray Bradbury’s A Sound of Thunder, which died earlier this month. Appearing as Fagin in this Dickens classic is more along the lines of quality that Sir Ben’s fans expect from him, although it’s doubtful that he’ll be the main reason to see this.

Both of these films have strong directors, although Polanski is clearly the better known and respected of the two. He has become increasingly eclectic with his choices since the height of his career in the ‘70s, and of course, he’s still holding the stigma of having ducked out of the country on sentencing for statutory rape charges, something that often overshadows his work. Then again, the director received some new acclaim and respect for his powerful Holocaust drama The Pianist, which won Oscars for him, Harwood, and the film’s star Adrian Brody. Although he got a nomination, Madden didn’t win an Oscar for directing the $100 million Oscar winner Shakespeare in Love, and since then, he’s only made one other film, the critically lauded war drama Captain Corelli’s Mandolin, starring Nicholas Cage and Penelope Cruz.

Both films expand into nationwide release this weekend after opening in select cities over the last few weeks. Proof opened two weeks ago in 8 theatres in New York and L.A. where it averaged $24 thousand in each. When it expanded into 70 more theatres this past weekend, it was able to maintain a solid average over the $10 thousand mark, bringing its total to just over $1 million. Proof’s subject matter of mathematics is a difficult one for non-Mensa audiences, even if they’re familiar with the original play, so it probably won’t fare that well outside of the major cities where it’s currently playing.

Oliver Twist opened last weekend in 7 theatres and only averaged $17,000, which isn’t very promising for a strong expansion if it can’t do better in New York and Los Angeles. Then again, Oliver Twist is such a beloved classic that it may be able to find some more walk-in business, although the thought of a convicted pedophile directing a children’s classic may put so many people off that they’ll avoid it for that reason alone, despite the amount of time since Polanski’s conviction.

Oliver Twist Comparisons
Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
A Sound of Thunder	9/2/05	816		$0.92	$1,124	$1.85
Suspect Zero	8/27/04	1,500		$3.45	$2,298	$8.71
Thunderbirds	7/30/04	2,057		$2.77	$1,345	$6.77
House of Sand and Fog	12/19/03	438	$0.09	$1.72	$3,928	$13.00
Sexy Beast	7/6/01	134	$2.35	$0.74	$5,498	$6.95
The Pianist	3/28/03	557	$9.77	$1.45	$2,613	$32.52
The Ninth Gate	3/10/00	1,586		$6.62	$4,174	$18.65
The Importance of Being Earnest	5/24/02	38	$0.12	$0.40	$10,491	$8.37
Great Expectations	1/30/98	1,867		$9.59	$5,137	$26.33

Why I Should See Them: Both films expect a bit more class and culture from their audiences than most of the current films in theatres, and they offer solid performances and production values in exchange.
Why Not: Well, for Proof, who really wants to see a movie about mathematicians, and isn’t Dickens a bit old hat by now?

Bottom Line: Both of these films will probably do their best business in the major markets in which they’ve already been playing, but they haven’t built enough word-of-mouth to presume that they’ll do as well in the smaller cities where awareness isn’t as high. The return of Gwyneth Paltrow may keep Proof from completely tanking this weekend, and the number of theatres it gets will determine whether it does better than Oliver Twist, which only has the advantage of being based on a beloved classic and having an Oscar winning actor and director.(Update: Proof is only expanding into 240 theatres, which completely defeats the purpose of all the work I did. Just a bit of last-minute salt in the wounds from Miramax before they change over to the new company.)

Projection: Oliver Twist may end up making just under $2 million, while Proof should add another million to its gross. Both will probably have to work hard to make $6 million.

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UNDER THE RADAR

Do you live in a major North American city? If so, there are a number of limited release movies worth checking out. And if you don't live in one of the cities in which these movies open, look for some of them to hit your area sometime in the next few months.

This week’s Warrior’s Picks are CAPOTE (Sony Pictures Classics) and MIRRORMASK (Samuel Goldwyn Films). (Also check out last week’s picks A History of Violence and Oliver Twist as they open nationwide this weekend.) Philip Seymour Hoffman takes on the role of his career, playing author Truman Capote in the drama Capote, directed by Bennett Miller. The docudrama showcases Capote’s research into his best-known novel "In Cold Blood", which comes out from him befriending the real life killers on which the book was based. MY REVIEW Graphic novelists Neil Gaiman and Dave McKean present MirrorMask, an Alice-in-Wonderland type fantasy story involving a teen girl (Stephanie Leonidas), who enters a fantastic world of strange creatures when her mother falls ill. Mini-Review: A magical story with an innovative look and feel pretty much what you might expect from a movie created by McKean and Gaiman. The animation is quite beautiful, and even more amazing is that it's often hard to tell where the animation ends and the live action begins. Rating: 8 out of 10

Julianne Moore stars in Jane Anderson’s THE PRIZE WINNER OF DEFIANCE, OHIO (DreamWorks), based on the memoirs of Terry Ryan, whose mother tried to keep her family of ten kids afloat during the ‘50s by entering (and often winning) jingle contests. This will be the third time that Moore has played a ‘50s housewife, having been nominated for Oscars the last two times. Can lightning strike a third time? It opens in New York and L.A. on Friday. Mini-Review: A nice story and another wonderful performance by Julianne Moore is counter-balanced by a scenery-muncher from Woody Harrelson as her drunken and abusive husband. It's often a bit too cute or sweet for its own good--her jingles aren't *that* great--but by the end, there probably won't be a dry eye in the house. Rating: 7 out of 10

Also opening in New York and L.A. is GOING SHOPPING (Rainbow Releasing), the latest film from Henry Jaglom (Eating), which takes a look at women’s obsession with shopping as seen via a fashion designer, played by long-time Jaglom collaborator Victoria Foyt, who finds herself having to find new ways of making money when her shop is threatened with closure. Mini-Review: Some of the thoughts on women and shopping in the latest Jaglom-Foyt collaboration are amusing, but after awhile, the endless testimonials get tiring and do little to save the main story which seems to be made up of semi-improvised thrown-together scenes. After an hour, it didn't seem to be going anywhere. Rating: Incomplete

Director Joseph Castello and cowriter/star Ayad Akhtar create THE WAR WITHIN (Magnolia Pictures), a drama that follows the day-to-day life of a Pakistani engineering student who also happens to be an Islamic fundamentalist planning a terror attack on New York’s Grand Central Station. Mini-Review: Yes, this is exactly what we need, a movie trying to find the humanity in terrorists. Great! If this were better written and acted, rather than being a contrived attempt to show that Muslims are people, too, I wouldn't have fallen asleep for 15 minutes and then walked out when I realized that I didn't miss anything. Either way, this is a fairly despicable attempt at pandering on a sore subject matter that's far from healed. Rating: Incomplete

Renée Chabria’s SUEÑO (Sony/Destination Films) stars John Leguizamo as a young man who moves from Mexico to Los Angeles to try to become a musician. (uh oh..this is already sounding too much like Undiscovered). Fortunately, he gets to enter the, get this, "Chance of a Lifetime Mystery Musician Contest." Along the way, he gets some help from Elizabeth Peña. It will open in southern California.

Also in limited releases is SCREEN DOOR JESUS (Indican Pictures), a comedy from filmmaker Kirk Davis about what happens in a small town when they find an image of Jesus on the front porch screen door of a local resident. For THREE DAYS OF RAIN (Rogue Arts), Michael Meredith took three short stories from Anton Chekov and assembled them into a modern-day drama set during a three-day rainstorm in Cleveland. Opening in New York on Wednesday, the Sundance favorite FORTY SHADES OF BLUE (First Look Pictures) is about the love triangle between an older rock ‘n’ roll legend (Rip Torn), his Russian mail order bride and his son, with whom she has an affair. LITTLE MANHATTAN (20^th Century Fox) is a PG film about first love between two 11-year-olds in the city that never goes to sleep before 8pm; it opens in New York on Friday.

Oh, no. Not this again. After three test runs, DUMA (Warner Bros. Studios) finally opens in 40 theatres in Los Angeles and 2 theatres in New York. This is the last chance for the tale of a boy and his leopard to find an audience after almost a year of test runs with no official release. And if you’re wondering why this may be, Variety reported last week that the film’s producers ended up paying to get the film shown in New York, and that they’re at odds with the way the film has been marketed or lack thereof.

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THIS TIME LAST YEAR

Last October kicked off with two big movies, each looking to bring in a different target audience. Will Smith, Angelina Jolie and Renée Zellweger provided their voices for DreamWorks’ undersea animated film Shark Tale, which grossed an impressive $48 million its opening weekend, still less than half what their last animated film Shrek 2 made opening weekend earlier that summer. Still, there was enough room for Joaquin Phoenix and John Travolta’s firefighter drama Ladder 49 to bring in over $22 million in business, so that the top 2 made more than the Top 10 the previous week. Before starring in Tyler Perry’s surprise hit Diary of a Mad Black Woman earlier this year, Kimberly Elise starred in the film based on the Reverend T.D. Jakes’ stage play Woman Thou Art Loosed, which opened in 406 theatres last October, earning $2.2 million, enough to enter the charts at #8. Although most returning films dropped between 43% and 51% from the previous weekend, the British zombie comedy Shaun of the Dead, held up well, dropping only 26% from the previous weekend, moving up a spot from its opening weekend.

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Next week, five more movies!!! (What are you doing to me, Hollywood?) Nick "Chicken Run" Park returns with Wallace & Gromit ­ The Curse of the Were-Rabbit, Cameron Diaz and Toni Collette get In Her Shoes, Matthew McConaughey and Al Pacino are Two for the Money, Ryan Reynolds is Waiting…and The Gospel has something to do with church music, I guess.

Copyright 2005 Edward Douglas