Preview and Projections for the Weekend of October 28, 2005

By Edward Douglas -

Greetings and welcome back to the Weekend Warrior, your weekly guide to the weekend's new movies. Tune in every Tuesday for the latest look at the upcoming weekend, and then check back on Friday for any last minute updates and reviews.

WEEKEND PROJECTIONS - final update

This weekend is another battle as a legendary fictional character of books and film takes on a far younger contender in sequels to two very different hit movies. The question is whether Sony Pictures can put enough money behind The Legend of Zorro to make it look more desirable than indie upstart Lions Gate and their sequel to last year's Saw. Even with its R-rating, Saw II should have the benefits of a pre-Halloween weekend and a stronger following among younger males, although Legend of Zorro might get a boost in ticket sales from younger teens who won't be able to buy a ticket to Saw II. Can one or both break the October box office slump, in which no new movies since Flightplan has made more than $16 million? We'll see. The two other new movies, The Weather Man and Prime, team Oscar recipients with action stars (kind of), but they're both getting moderate releases into less than 2,000 theatres. Expect Nicholas Cage and Michael Caine to bring more people into The Weather Man than Meryl Streep and Uma Thurman do for Prime, and both to end up somewhere in the bottom half of the Top 10. Also, the urban drama G is scheduled to expand into 550 theatres nationwide, but I wouldn't expect that to make more than a million or so this weekend. Also, the John "Elf" Favreau directed space adventure Zathura will get sneak previews on Saturday.

TW	LW	Title	Weekend (in millions)	Change	# Of Theaters	Average	Week
1	New	Saw II	$24.2	N/A	2,949	$8,206	1
2	New	The Legend of Zorro	$16.2	N/A	3,520	$4,602	1
3	2	Dreamer	$6.7	-27%	2,491	$2,690	2
4	1	Doom	$6.6	-57%	3,042	$2,170	2
5	3	Wallace & Gromit	$6.0	-30%	2,935	$2,044	4
6	New	The Weather Man	$5.0	N/A	1,510	$3,311	1
7	5	North Country	$4.1	-37%	2,555	$1,605	2
8	4	The Fog	$3.8	-43%	2,587	$1,404	3
9	New	Prime	$3.6	N/A	1,831	$1,966	1
10	6	Elizabethtown	$3.3	-43%	2,137	$1,544	3
			Est. Weekend Total $79.50	Est. Avg. Drop-Off -40%		Est. Average PTA $2,961

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THE LEGEND OF ZORRO (Sony Pictures)
Starring: Antonio Banderas, Catherine Zeta-Jones, Rufus Sewell, Nick Chinlund, Adrian Alonso
Director: Martin Campbell (The Mask of Zorro, Goldeneye, Vertical Limit, Beyond Borders, Mousetrap)
Screenwriter(s): Robert Orci and Alex Kurtzman (The Island)
Genres: Action, Adventure, Family
Rated PG
Theatre Count: 3,520

Antonio Banderas is back under the mask of Zorro, the 19^th Century swashbuckler who must face another dangerous mission, although he promised his wife Elena (Catherine Zeta-Jones) that he'd give up his life of adventure for a quiet family life as Alejandro de la Vega. But those who opposed California becoming a state in the Union are planning a new threat that might change their plans.

The masked swashbuckler Zorro is quite a legendary character. Based on the real life adventures of the 19^th Century outlaw Joaquin Murieta, Zorro first appeared in pulp magazines before making the move to films during the silent era of cinema with no less than Douglas Fairbanks debuting the character in 1920. Over the next 50 years, Zorro has been a mainstay at the cinema with more men behind the mask than have played Ian Fleming's James Bond, and the '70 saw an attempt at a revival with Frank Langella behind the mask. The next attempt took a satirical route with George Hamilton playing his effeminate brother in Zorro: the Gay Blade in 1981, the irony being of course, that both Langella and Hamilton have also played Dracula.

In 1995, director Martin Campbell was coming off directing GoldenEye, Pierce Brosnan's first movie as James Bond, when he was offered the chance to direct the first movie about the Mexican swashbuckler in 17 years. For the role, they got Antonio Banderas, which must have seemed like perfect casting considering his action experience playing El Mariachi in Robert Rodriguez's Desperado. The movie, which also starred Anthony Hopkins as Don Diego and marked the big breakout by Catherine Zeta-Jones was made for $65 million and ended up grossing over $90 million theatrically in North America. Of course, a success like that would warrant a sequel, but it took a long time for them to get going on it. After all, in those days, stars weren't contracted to do a sequel. The Legend of Zorro promises to offer more of the same, although it's also being targeted towards a younger audience by introducing Zorro's son and lightening up the drama in favor of action and laughs.

Antonio Banderas' version of Zorro has found many fans because he kept much of what made the character work and with The Legend of Zorro he appears in his third franchise sequel, after Once Upon a Time in Mexico and Robert Rodriguez's family friendly franchise Spy Kids. The latter is a much better comparison, since the three PG movies have earned around $300 million and upped Banderas' Q rating among a younger audience. Its doubtful that the male fans who have seen Banderas in the other Rodriguez movies or any of his R-rated flops like Femme Fatale and Ballistic: Ecks vs. Sever will care much for this type of movie.

Catherine Zeta-Jones has had quite an amazing life in the seven years since The Mask of Zorro. She followed that with the equally successful Entrapment with former James Bond Sean Connery and the summer horror hit The Haunting. She then married Michael Douglas and appeared in Steven Soderbergh's drama Traffic (although not in any scenes with her hubby), but it was her starring role as Velma Kelly in the 2003 movie based on the Bob Fosse musical Chicago that earned Zeta-Jones her first Oscar thanks to her singing and dancing. Her follow up, the Coen Brothers' romantic comedy Intolerable Cruelty with George Clooney did surprising little business by comparison to her other movies, which makes one think that Zeta-Jones' presence in T-Mobile commercials might have affected audiences' desire to see her in movies. Still, she's enough of a celebrity to draw interest with some well-placed television appearances, such as on "Saturday Night Live" which she just hosted.

Banderas and Zeta-Jones
Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Mask of Zorro	7/17/98	2,515		$22.53	$8,958	$93.83
Spy Kids 2: The Island of Lost Dreams	8/9/02	3,307	$8.30	$16.71	$5,053	$84.94
Spy Kids	3/30/01	3,104		$26.55	$8,552	$106.26
Once Upon a Time in Mexico	9/12/03	3,282		$23.42	$7,137	$55.85
Desperado	8/25/95	2,027		$7.91	$3,902	$25.53
Intolerable Cruelty	10/10/03	2,564		$12.53	$4,885	$35.10
Chicago	2/7/03	1,841	$53.02	$10.79	$5,859	$170.68
America's Sweethearts	7/20/01	3,011		$30.18	$10,024	$93.61
Traffic	1/5/01	1,510	$0.52	$15.52	$10,277	$124.11
Entrapment	4/30/99	2,814		$20.15	$7,161	$87.52

Director Martin Campbell now has some solid experience with this type of action-adventure both from doing the last Zorro film and GoldenEye. That said, his last movie was the Angelina Jolie-Clive Owen drama, Beyond Borders, which bombed in almost the same weekend two years ago. Still, Campbell knows his strengths and next year, he returns to the Bond franchise with Casino Royale, a new relaunch of the franchise with the new Bond, actor Daniel Craig.

It took many years for this sequel to come together, and though Anthony Hopkins isn't returning as Don Diego, the promise of action and adventure should be enough for the fans of the last movie. Except that this wasn't exactly a sequel that they demanded. The first movie was a summer popcorn flick, and so much has happened in the world since then that many of the fans of the original movie have probably moved on. By comparison, the sequel is being released in October during one of the worst box office markets since 2001, and Sony hasn't exactly had much luck with their sequels this year.

That said, the swashbuckling action-adventure genre got a bit of a resurrection thanks to the success of Disney's 2003 blockbuster Pirates of the Caribbean, and the name brand of Zorro suggests a certain amount of action and adventure that will appeal to a wide audience without having to do much in the way of promotion. The PG rating should also help bring in a younger audience, since parents can bring their kids. In some ways, this sequel will try to attempt what Shanghai Knights, the Jackie Chan and Owen Wilson Western sequel, did a few years back, although it may be harder for it to do better opening weekend.

Teens probably won't have very much interest in Zorro, the character or the movie, but younger teens trying to get into the R-rated Saw II will likely buy tickets to this movie in order to get into the theatre and sneak into that movie, which will certainly help this "competition's" opening weekend.

Related Comparisons
Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl	7/11/03	3,269	$24.00	$46.63	$14,264	$305.41
The Count of Monte Cristo	1/25/02	2,007		$11.38	$5,668	$54.23
The Musketeer	9/7/01	2,438		$10.31	$4,230	$27.05
Beyond Borders	10/25/03	1,798		$2.08	$1,155	$4.43
Vertical Limit	12/8/00	2,307		$15.51	$6,723	$68.47
Goldeneye	11/17/95	2,667		$26.21	$9,828	$106.43
Shanghai Knights	2/7/03	2,753		$19.60	$7,121	$60.47
Shanghai Noon	5/26/00	2,711		$15.61	$5,758	$56.90

Why I Should See It: Banderas and Zeta-Jones knocked one out of the park with the first Zorro movie and the sequel should allow an even wider audience with its PG rating.
Why Not: Although Zorro wields a sword, there probably won't be any blood.

Bottom Line: This sequel to a hit summer action movie has a few things working for it but just as many working against it. The time that's passed since the first movie might hurt a little, as will the October release, but otherwise, this looks like the type of action-adventure that can be enjoyed by the family, so it's likely to have better legs than most action sequels.

Projection: $15 to 17 million on its way to $45 million.

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PRIME (Universal Pictures)
Starring: Uma Thurman, Meryl Streep, Bryan Greenberg, Jon Abrahams, Zak Orth
Director/Screenwriter: Ben Younger (Boiler Room)
Genres: Comedy, Romance, Drama
Rated PG-13
Theatre Count: 1,831
Tagline: "A therapeutic new comedy."
Mini-Review: A mildly amusing one-joke comedy about a relationship so unbelievable that you're amazed it can be stretched out for a feature-length movie. Bryan Greenberg is not a strong enough actor to carry the leading role, let alone act opposite Uma, who is easily the best part of this movie. When even Meryl gives a performance that is an embarassment, you just know that you're in for an awkward mess of a movie. Rating: 3.5 out of 10

Rafi (Uma Thurman) is a 37-year-old recently divorced New York woman who suddenly finds herself in an affair with a much younger painter (Bryan Greenberg). Her therapist (Meryl Streep) offers her full support for the May-December relationship until she finds out that Rafi's new love interest is actually her own son. Of course, hilarity and drama will ensue.

Hard to believe that this is the second weekend in a row with a new movie about a psychiatrist set in New York, and yet neither of them is a sequel to Analyze That! What's up with that? In this case, Prime is a vehicle for actress Meryl Streep, and it's a bit of a strange one, since the premise seems like something you might see in an independent drama or even on stage, and yet, it's being sold as a high concept studio comedy ala Meet the Parents or…yes…Analyze This or That. Even odder is that it's the latest movie from Ben Younger, the guy who made Boiler Room, the stock exchange drama that couldn't be any more different from this.

Comedy is also a bit of departure for Streep, who spent most of 2003 being nominated for awards for her dramatic films, but since then has been making some rather bizarre choices. We can't forget that Streep is an acting legend, currently holding the record for most Oscar nominations with 13, of which she won two. In 2003, she appeared in The Hours, which received a number of Oscars for its cast, received her own supporting nod for Spyke Jones' Adaptation, and received her first Emmy for her role in the HBO production of "Angels in America." Then, last year, Streep starred in Jonathan Demme's remake of The Manchurian Candidate before starring opposite Jim Carrey in Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events, neither which had the critical buzz of her previous awards-worthy endeavors. If IMDb were to be believed, Ms. Streep has a very busy year ahead of her, although Prime doesn't seem like something that will be remembered come Oscar time.

Meryl Streep's co-star Uma Thurman hasn't really done a movie like this since The Truth About Cats and Dogs in 1996, although she's done a number of indie dramas. Thurman recently returned to glory when she reunited with Pulp Fiction director Quentin Tarantino to star in his two-part martial arts drama Kill Bill; it earned over $136 million in theatres. She also recently reteamed with her Pulp Fiction co-star John Travolta in the music biz comedy Be Cool. Next up for Uma is the role of Ulla in the big screen version of The Producers, based on the hit Broadway musical, which was itself based on Mel Brooks' comedy, and she's already getting a lot of buzz for that thanks to the trailer.

Playing Meryl's son and Uma's boyfriend is newcomer Bryan Greenberg, whose own claim to fame was as part of the George Clooney directed HBO semi-reality show "Unscripted", which even went so far as to show Greenberg getting the gig in this movie.

It's doubtful that Uma's mostly male fans will have much interest in this, nor would the older women who love Meryl have much interest in Uma. In some ways, it's the same issue faced by Curtis Hanson's dramedy In Her Shoes with Cameron Diaz, who probably has more male fans than women, except that it was based on a popular book and built word-of-mouth with preview screenings.

Obviously, this is a movie geared strictly for older women, but it's being sold on its one-joke comedy premise, and really, it's more creepy than it is funny. A psychiatrist talking with a patient about the sex she's having with her son? Ew. The commercials don't do very much to sell the movie beyond that, and they just make Streep seem loopy, while Uma gushes about her young lover, which I guess older women might appreciate, but anyone else? Probably not.

Prime just doesn't have a very good marketing campaign, but being Universal's fourth movie in the last month, their marketing department must be stretched fairly thin. (Next week's Jarhead has a lot more riding on it.) Still, anyone who goes to see Prime expecting a madcap comedy like Analyze This is just going to be disappointed that they're getting something that might have been better off done as an off-Broadway play.

Related Comparisons
Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
The Manchurian Candidate	7/30/04	2,867		$20.02	$6,982	$64.82
The Hours	1/17/03	402	$3.78	$4.64	$11,555	$41.60
Adaptation	1/10/03	560	$6.55	$2.64	$4,709	$22.50
Be Cool	3/4/05	3,216		$23.45	$7,292	$55.81
Kill Bill Vol. 2	4/16/04	2,971		$25.10	$8,450	$66.21
Paycheck	12/26/03	2,762	$5.30	$13.46	$4,874	$53.15
Kill Bill Vol. 1	10/10/03	3,102		$22.09	$7,121	$69.82
The Truth About Cast and Dogs	4/26/96	1,413		$6.77	$4,791	$34.08
Boiler Room	2/18/00	1,335		$5.74	$4,300	$16.84
Analyze That	12/6/02	2,635		$11.03	$4,186	$31.82
Analyze This	3/5/99	2,518		$18.38	$7,299	$106.69

Why I Should See It: With actresses like Meryl and Uma, really how bad could this be? (That's rhetorical.)
Why Not: From the commercials, Meryl Streep looks like she's finally lost it and joined Robert De Niro in the jump to bad movies.

Bottom Line: Prime will continue last week's trend of Stay, proving that star power accounts for nothing, especially when you don't have a very strong premise… or one involving a New York psychiatrist. Some older women might give it a chance, but there's really not much of a market for this, and it probably would have done better if given a slower limited roll-out in select cities rather than such a wide release.

Projection: $3 to 4 million on its way to less than $10 million.

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SAW II (Lions Gate Films)
Starring: Donnie Wahlberg, Tobin Bell, Franky G, Shawnee Smith, Beverley Mitchell, Dina Meyer, Emmanuelle Vaugier, Erik Knudsen, Tim Burd, Lyriq Bent
Director: Darren Lynn Bousman (Identity Lost, Butterfly Dreams)
Screenwriter(s): Darren Lynn Bousman, Leigh Whannell (Saw, upcoming Silence)
Genres: Horror, Thriller, Sequel
Rated R
Theatre Count: 2,949
Tagline: "Oh, yes…there will be blood."
MY REVIEW

Jigsaw (Tobin Bell), the methodical serial killer from Saw, is back! This time, he's pitted against a tough detective (Donnie Wahlberg), who must try to save his son and others from a house of horrors filled with deadly nerve gas, puzzles and death traps.

Last Halloween saw the dawn of a new phenomenon when the low budget indie horror flick Saw by Australian creators, director James Wan and actor/writer Leigh Whannell, was given a nationwide release by Lions Gate Films. Made for just over a million dollars, it ended up making 18 times that its opening weekend and over $55 million in theatres. It was a nice fiscal surprise that Lions Gate immediately greenlit a sequel, buying a script called "The Desperate" by filmmaker Darren Lynn Bousman and having him rework it with original screenwriter Leigh Whannell to bring the idea into the world of Jigsaw's deadly games. The premise is that this time Jigsaw has captured seven or eight people and locked them in a house full of his usual deathtraps to test them in hopes of "making them better".

Returning from the first movie are Tobin Bell, getting a bit more screen time as Jigsaw now that we know who he is, as well as Shawnee Smith, the victim of Jigsaw's jawtrap in Saw, and Dina Meyer returns as a police detective. Of the three, Meyer is probably best known for her portrayal of Barbara Gordon/Batgirl on the WB's "Birds of Prey," but the movie really belongs to Bell and his new nemesis, a detective played by Donnie Wahlberg, the former New Kid on the Block, who starred in HBO's "Band of Brothers" and in movies like Dreamcatcher. As far as the rest of the cast, Franky G is probably best remembered as Wrench from The Italian Job, Beverly Mitchell as Lucy from the hit television drama "Seventh Heaven," and Emmanuelle Vaugier will next appear in the Sci-Fi Channel movie "Painkiller Jane."

I know the cast doesn't sound too impressive but Saw II, like Saw and most horror movies, won't be relying too much on stars and box office draw, as much as the premise and the promise of gruesome and bloody killings, which Saw delivered in spades. And the sequel should be even better because they actually have a decent production budget this time around.

Lions Gate has become one of the premiere horror distributors, thanks to movies like Saw and Rob Zombie's House of 1,000 Corpses, and this past summer, they released the sequel to the latter, The Devil's Rejects, which earned twice as much money in three times as many theatres, and winding up with slightly more money than the original. Their other summer horror flick, the French serial killer thriller High Tension, didn't do nearly as well.

Teens have repeatedly proven that there's nothing they like doing more on a Friday and Saturday night than getting some good scares and Saw offers that in spades, as well as a lot of blood and gore to go with it. This being Halloween weekend makes it even more appealing to go out and see a movie like Saw II. Unfortunately, Halloween proper is on Monday night so it might not necessarily help the weekend as much as it did last year when Halloween fell on a Sunday.

Of course, some teens will be too young to get into this, so they'll need other means like buying tickets to PG and PG-13 movies and using them to get in. In that respect, this movie probably won't be able to do as well as it might have because of its R-rating, although movies like The Fog and Legend of Zorro might reap some extra rewards because of it.

Related Comparisons
Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Saw	10/29/04	2,315	$18.28	$7,895	$55.15
The Devil's Rejects	7/22/05	1,757	$7.07	$4,022	$16.90
High Tension	6/10/05	1,323	$1.90	$1,434	$3.65
The Texas Chainsaw Massacre	10/17/03	3,016	$28.09	$9,315	$80.15
Wrong Turn	5/30/03	1,615	$5.16	$3,164	$15.42
Cabin Fever	9/12/03	2,087	$8.63	$4,137	$21.14
House of 1000 Corpses	4/11/03	595	$3.46	$5,816	$12.58
Scream 2	12/12/97	2,663	$33.00	$12,392	$101.36
Scream	12/20/96	1,413	$6.35	$4,494	$103.03
Se7en	9/22/95	2,441	$13.95	$5,715	$100.12

Why I Should See It: What, the promise of lots of blood isn't enough?
Why Not: You just know that everyone's going to bitch about the sequel not being as good as the original. They always do.

Bottom Line: Probably one of the most anticipated sequels of the fall, not only among the horror set, but also among the high school and college crowd who thrilled to the blood and gore of the first Saw, both in theatres and on DVD. Releasing it just before Halloween makes perfect sense, since everyone's going to be in the mood for some scares, so expect it to do very well in its first four days…after that is all about word-of-mouth, although because of the current state of the box office, it's not likely to end up with much more money than the original movie.

Projection: $23 to 25 million on its way to $60 million.

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THE WEATHER MAN (Paramount Pictures)
Starring: Nicolas Cage, Michael Caine, Hope Davis, Michael Rispoli, Gil Bellows
Director: Gore Verbinski (The Ring, Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the
Screenwriter: Steven Conrad (Lawrence Melm, upcoming The Pursuit of Happyness, Chad Schmidt)
Genres: Comedy, Drama
Rated R
Theatre Count: 1,510
Tagline: "…bring an umbrella." (Maybe you should bring one to Saw II, as well)
Mini-Review: Nick Cage gives another winning performance in this dark dark dark comedy that allows him to return to Adaptation territory, talking to himself in voice-over and facing a life where everything goes wrong. It's sometimes a bit uneven, but Cage's efforts to get approval from his father--a weaker performance from MichaelCaine--and his kids often makes up for awkward conversations about "camel toe." Rating: 7 out of 10

Nicholas Cage is David Spritz, a Chicago weatherman who suddenly gets a shot at the big time, while his family life starts falling apart between his divorce and with his father ailing.

This new dramedy is a bit of an anomaly because it stars two Oscar winning actors, but it's a quirkier film that might not appeal to the fans of their most mainstream work.

For Nicholas Cage, it's a bit of a return to quirkier fare, which he's done so well in his early career from the Coen Brothers' Raising Arizona and David Lynch's Wild at Heart to later films like Honeymoon in Vegas and Ridley Scott's 2003 drama Matchstick Men. In some ways, The Weather Man is a mix between the latter and Cage's holiday film Family Man, and it's more likely to interest those who liked Cage in Charlie Kaufman's Adaptation than any of his numerous action movies. Cage is still coming off his biggest hit with last November's National Treasure, but his most recent movie Lord of War, which was also in the action vein, barely made $25 million after opening with just over $9 million. It opened in twice as many theatres as The Weather Man is projected to open.

Cage gets a bit of added support this time from Sir Michael Caine, a fine dramatic actor who continues to work well into his ‘70s, and Hope Davis, whose gotten attention for roles in American Splendor and About Schmidt. Michael Caine's most acclaimed work was in the ‘60s and ‘70s, but his movies were deemed classic enough that three of them have received 21^st Century remakes: Alfie, Get Carter and The Italian Job. After winning an Oscar for Lasse Hallström's "The Cider House Rules" in 2000, he would receive another nomination a few years later for the remake of Graham Green's The Quiet American. Since then, he's jumped between major studio release and smaller dramas, with this one falling somewhere in between. This past summer, Caine appeared in back-to-back hits, first starring as Alfred in Batman Begins, which has grossed over $200 million. The following week, he played Nicole Kidman's father in the remake of Bewitched, which earned around $60 million. No question that he's a beloved actor who will mainly be attracting older adults to see the movie.

The Weather Man looks and feels a lot like Matchstick Men with its mix of humor and drama, as well as Cage having to spend time with his daughter, but that movie was primarily sold based on director Ridley Scott. Director Gore Verbinski isn't even mentioned in the commercials even though his last two movies were huge hits. First, he directed The Ring, based on the Japanese horror film, and then he directed Disney's Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl, a $350 million summer blockbuster. Obviously, this is a bit of a departure for him, although his track record is strong enough that if movie lovers knew he was directing, they might see it.

The film was originally supposed to come out in the spring, but then it was mysteriously moved back to this weekend, maybe because Paramount thought it would be stronger in the fall with other fare geared towards older adults. Unfortunately, this has been the worst October in recent history, and The Weather Man doesn't look like something that can break the bad luck streak that most new movies have faced. Sure, the commercials are rather funny, mainly showing Cage being hit with rather mundane articles of food, but there's nothing that spectacular about it that will make it a must-see this weekend. (I'm just glad that people don't throw things at box office predictors.)

On top of that, it's getting a rather moderate release into only 1,400 theatres, half of Cage's last movie. Sure, these will probably be in bigger cities where something like this might do well, but it shows a general lack of confidence on the part of Paramount and distributors. At this point, a lot of this film's success will be up to reviews, although even those aren't helping get people into theatres these days. Then again, how many other movies will have a diehard fanbase of meteorologists and weathermen that it can count on opening weekend?

Related Comparisons
Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Lord of War	9/16/05	2,814		$9.39	$3,337	$23.82
Matchstick Men	9/12/03	2,711		$13.09	$4,827	$36.87
Adaptation	1/10/03	560	$6.55	$2.64	$4,709	$22.50
Captain Corelli's Mandolin	8/17/01	1,595		$7.21	$4,520	$25.53
Family Man	12/22/00	2,388		$10.56	$4,422	$75.76
Leaving Las Vegas	2/9/96	1,310	$12.13	$3.25	$2,481	$31.98
Honeymoon in Vegas	8/28/92	1,637		$7.32	$4,472	$35.22
Bewitched	6/24/05	3,174		$20.13	$6,343	$62.25
Batman Begins	6/17/05	3,858		$48.74	$12,635	$205.28
Secondhand Lions	9/19/03	3,013		$12.14	$4,029	$41.76
The Quiet American	2/14/03	157	$1.69	$1.24	$7,881	$12.99
The Cider House Rules	1/7/00	816	$5.14	$3.08	$3,775	$57.54

Why I Should See It: It has Nicholas Cage being hit by food!!!
Why Not: Because if the movie is bad, food will probably be thrown at the screens turning this movie experience into something like a Gallagher concert.

Bottom Line: While the promise of a humorous drama starring Nicholas Cage and Michael Caine sounds intriguing, especially when directed by Gore Verbinski, there's really nothing about this movie that makes it seem like something that must be seen in theatres. In a time where so many movies aren't doing great business, there's nothing really that jumps out about The Weather Man that makes it special enough.

Projection: $4 to 6 million on its way to less than $18 million.

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UNDER THE RADAR

Do you live in a major North American city? If so, there are a number of limited release movies worth checking out. And if you don't live in one of the cities in which these movies open, look for some of them to hit your area sometime in the next few months.

This week's WARRIOR'S PICKS are the Palestinian drama PARADISE NOW (Warner Independent Pictures) and the documentary NEW YORK DOLL (First Independent Pictures). Paradise Now is a powerful film from Hany Abu-Assad about two Palestinian friends who must decide whether to go through with a suicide bombing mission on Israel. It's a very different take on the current situation in the Mid East. MY REVIEW Greg Whiteley's documentary New York Doll is about Arthur "Killer" Kane, bass player for the seminal punk band the New York Dolls, who found a new life with the Mormon Church and suddenly found himself getting another chance at fame when the band reunites for a special one-off concert. MY REVIEW

Fans of Asian horror will want to check out THREE…EXTREMES (Lions Gate Films), an anthology featuring short films by China's Fruit Chan, Japan's Takashi Miike (Audition), and Korea's Park Chan-Wook (Oldboy). It's three creepy and freaky stories, the first one starring Bai Ling that may never make you look at Chinese dumplings the same way again. MY REVIEW

New addition! GUARDING EDDY (Innovation Film Group) is the story of Eddy Patterson, an 18-year-old with mental disorders who runs away from home to fulfill his life-long dream of joining the L.A. Clippers basketball team. Once there, he winds up meeting an injured basketball player at a homeless shelter. Opens in select cities.

Michelangelo Antonioni's 1975 film THE PASSENGER (Sony Pictures Classics) is re-released in New York, telling the story of a journalist (Jack Nicholson) who travels across Africa, Spain, Germany and England using the identity of a dead man. On Wednesday at New York's Film Forum, there's the documentary BALLETS RUSSES (Zeitgeist Films) by Daniel Gellar and Dayna Goldfine, about the French ballet company that revolutionized the art form in Europe before closing in the ‘60s. The film includes interviews with many of the surviving stars who are now in their ‘70s and ‘80s. BLACKMAIL BOY (Picture This!) is a dark comedy about a Greek family feud over the redevelopment of family-owned land, culminating with a blackmail plot surrounding their son's relationship with an older land official.

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THIS WEEKEND LAST YEAR

The original Saw also faced some stiff competition, opening against the long-anticipated biodrama Ray, starring soon to be Oscar-winning Jamie Foxx as the late, great Ray Charles. When the dust cleared, Ray had come out just on top, but it was not enough to defeat The Grudge in its second weekend, especially with the latter having the benefits of Halloween weekend. The Grudge was still in the top spot with just under $22 million, followed by Ray with just over $20 million. Created on a shoe-string budget by Aussie friends James Wan and Leigh Whannell, Saw made back its production budget opening day and its $18 million opening weekend gross was a huge boon for the indie horror movie which mixed psychological terror with full-on gore to entice those who found The Grudge too wimpy for their Halloween tastes. Opening in just 550 theatres was New Line's Birth, starring Nicole Kidman, but its creepy premise turned people off and its average of $3,300 only allowed it to gross $1.7 million opening weekend, not enough to get into the top 10.

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Next week, the month of November kicks off with two very different movies: Disney's CGI family comedy Chicken Little and Sam "American Beauty" Mendes' Iraqi War drama Jarhead.

Copyright 2005 Edward Douglas

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