Preview and Projections for the Weekend of November 4, 2005

By Edward Douglas -

Greetings and welcome back to the Weekend Warrior, your weekly guide to the weekend's new movies. Tune in every Tuesday for the latest look at the upcoming weekend, and then check back on Friday for any last minute updates and reviews.

WEEKEND PROJECTIONS - final update 11.3.05

The awful month of October is finally over and maybe this weekend’s movies can continue the upwards climb begun last weekend. And look at that, we only have two new movies this weekend. Hallelujah! You really can’t get much more different than this week’s two offerings. No, seriously, you can’t, so don’t even try. First, there’s Disney’s computer animated family film Chicken Little, which takes the well-known fable and brings him into a G-rated sci-fi setting with “Scrubs” star Zach Braff voicing the title character. Then, you have the Iraqi war drama Jarhead, directed by Sam “American Beauty” Mendes and starring Jamie Foxx, Jake Gyllenhaal and Peter Sarsgaard. Expect the latter to strike a chord with enough Americans, particularly males, that it should do decent business opening weekend, and it’s likely to open bigger than Universal Pictures’ last few films including Doom. Expect Jarhead to do a ton of business on Friday and Chicken Little to make more than enough over the weekend to overtake it come Sunday. (Update: The buzz for Jarhead has built so much over the past week--it's placing firmly in the Yahoo Buzz charts at #2--that it's almost guaranteed to make at least $20 million, despite the relatively low theatre count.) It’ll probably be wise to watch the bottom of the Top 10, since a few movies may try to hang onto the Top 10, as George Clooney’s Good Night, And Good Luck makes its nationwide play into 650 theatres. If you missed them last week, Sony Pictures' Zathura gets sneak previews again on Saturday.

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CHICKEN LITTLE (Walt Disney Pictures)
Starring (voice): Zach Braff, Garry Marshall, Joan Cusack, Steve Zahn, Amy Sedaris, Don Knotts, Harry Shearer, Patrick Stewart, Wallace Shawn, Fred Willard, Catherine O’Hara, Adam West, Enrico Colantoni, Patrick Warburton
Director: Mark Dindal (Cats Don’t Dance, The Emperor’s New Groove)
Screenwriter(s): Steve Bencich and Ron J. Friedman (Brother Bear)
Genres: Animated, Family, Comedy, Science Fiction
Rated G
Theatre Count: 3,654
Tagline: “This time, the sky really is falling.”

The fable of the chicken who declared that the sky was falling after being hit by an acorn is turned into an action-packed sci-fi adventure featuring Chicken Little and his friends Abby Mallard, Runt of the Litter and others, who need to save the world when they realize that the sky really is falling.

After years of distributing Pixar Studios’ computer animated films, Walt Disney Pictures is trying to break out on their own as their legendary animation studios starts using computers, rather than the traditional hand-drawn animation for which they’re famous. The studio’s last big 2-D animated hit was Lilo & Stitch in the summer of 2002, which grossed $145 million, but that was a drop in the water compared to their animated record holder The Lion King, and Pixar Studios’ films like Finding Nemo and Monster’s Inc. consistently made more money for them.

Helming the film is Mark Dindal, who directed The Emperor’s New Groove, an animated film that showed the first signs of the artform failing after Disney had numerous hits with movies like Tarzan, The Lion King and others. The studio’s last traditionally animated film was 2004's Home on the Range, which only grossed about $50 million, which is disappointing when compared to Lilo & Stitch or any of their other animated films from the '90s.

Chicken Little’s voice is provided by Zach Braf, star of NBC’s hit sitcom “Scrubs” and whose first film as a director, Garden State, scored him a lot of points among film fans last year. Braf’s been doing most of the talk show appearances to promote the movie, and he is likely to bring in a bit of a 20-to-30 something audience that might not normally go see a G-rated animated film. The rest of the cast is just as impressive, including Harry Shearer, Fred Willard and Catherine O’Hara, all who’ve appeared in Christopher Guest’s comedies like Best in Show and A Mighty Wind. They even got the voice of Wallace Shawn--if you’ve seen The Princess Bride, you know who he is--and Adam West AKA the original TV Batman. Unlike DreamWorks, Disney has already learned that the key to the voice cast isn’t their celebrity, but that their comic delivery and humor will appeal to 30-and-older parents mixed with more slapstick elements that younger kids will love.

Over the last few years, Disney has claimed the early November slot for their holiday family films usually something G-rated, and it’s usually a good way to kick off the holiday movie season. The last few years have seen them find success with The Santa Clause 2, Brother Bear and last year’s The Incredibles (see This Weekend Last Year), which grossed $70 million its opening weekend despite having a PG-rating compared to Disney’s normal G preference. It’s a bit optimistic to assume that Chicken Little will do as well as The Incredibles, but it does look like it will have a similar style of humor that appeals to both adults and kids.

Then again, Disney’s last G-rated computer animated comedy was Valiant, which opened over the summer to very poor box office receipts, possibly because it was far more British in tone, so they’ll be hoping that Chicken Little will be received better. Over Memorial Day weekend, DreamWorks released Madagascar featuring the voices of Ben Stiller and Chris Rock, both comics with mainstream appeal amongst older audiences, and it’s currently the highest grossing animated film of the year with $193.2 million.

A few months earlier, Fox tried to follow up their hit Ice Age with their second computer animated film Robots, which had a relatively weaker showing than similar films even with the voice of Disney’s former genie, Robin Williams. The key difference is from Disney and it’s rated G, a combination that proven successful. Unlike Disney’s previous November offerings, there have been a number of family animated comedies over the fall, but both Tim Burton’s Corpse Bride and Wallace & Gromit were stop motion, and neither did as much business as computer animated films.

As anyone who reads ComingSoon.net knows, the studio has been promoting the film pretty heavily going all the way back to the beginning of the summer when they put a very clever teaser in front of The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy. It's likely that they're trying to appeal to the older male sci-fi fans, some of whom rushed out to see The Incredibles last year, although this looks a lot more like a kiddie movie. Disney has also renewed their deal with McDonald’s to offer Chicken Little toys with Happy Meals which will certainly raise awareness of the character among younger children, and Chicken Little will also be released using a new 3-D projection system that Disney set up on 85 screens across the country. The latter should greatly enhance the experience for kids and animation fans. A few years ago, Disney subsidiary Dimension Films released Robert Rodriguez’s Spy Kids 3-D: Game Over to great success, although their 3-D follow-up this year (taking breath) The Adventures of Shark Boy and Lava Girl in 3-D didn’t fare quite as well. Also, Warner Bros. did a simultaneous release of their own computer animated Christmas film The Polar Express in IMAX 3D lsat year, which ultimately helped add to its box office gross.

Related Comparisons
Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Valiant	8/19/05	2014		$5.91	$2,937	$19.36
Madagascar	5/27/05	4,131		$61.01	$14,769	$160.19
Robots	3/11/05	3,776		$36.05	$9,546	$127.61
The Incredibles	11/5/04	3,933		$70.47	$17,917	$261.44
Home on the Range	4/2/04	3,047		$13.88	$4,556	$50.03
Brother Bear	11/1/03	3,030	$0.40	$19.40*	$6,404	$84.45
Lilo & Stitch	6/21/02	3,191		$35.26	$11,049	$145.18
Jimmy Neutron: Boy Genius	12/21/01	3,139		$13.83	$4,407	$80.86
Monsters, Inc.	11/2/01	3,237		$63.48	$19,611	$252.89
The Emperor's New Groove	12/15/00	2,801		$9.81	$3,502	$88.76
The Santa Clause 2	11/1/02	3,350		$29.01	$8,659	$139.14

*Note: this is a two-day gross because this opened on a Saturday.

Why I Should See It: A well-known fairy tale character moved into a sci-fi setting and brought to life by a great voice cast might make Disney’s first attempt at a computer animated film a lot of fun.
Why Not: It’s not Shrek and it’s not Pixar, and that might mean all the difference in the world to some.

Bottom Line: Disney may be going out on a limb with their first attempt at in-house computer animation, but the combination of a known character and the type of irreverent humor that has been so popular in other CGI movies should make this a popular family favorite over the next few weekends before Harry Potter opens. After that, it will be relying on its G-rating to make it a first choice for younger kids through Thanksgiving. Either way, don't expect it to make all of its money on opening weekend.

Projection: $31 to 34 million opening weekend on its way to $130 million or more.

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JARHEAD (Universal Pictures)
Starring: Jake Gyllenhaal, Peter Sarsgaard, Jamie Foxx, Chris Cooper, Dennis Haysbert, Lucas Black, Rini Bell
Director: Sam Mendes (American Beauty, Road to Perdition)
Screenwriter: William Broyles Jr. (The Polar Express, Planet of the Apes, Cast Away, Apollo 13, Unfaithful)
Genres: War, Drama
Rated R
Theatre Count: 2,410
Tagline: “Welcome to the suck.” (Originally, this was going to be the tagline for Doom.)
MY REVIEW

Private Anthony Swofford (Jake Gyllenhaal) follows his father and grandfather into the Marines as a sniper, just in time to be sent into the deserts of Kuwait as part of Operation Desert Shield, which eventually turns into Desert Storm, a war that ends before his platoon sees any action.

Jarhead is a different type of war drama. Based on the bestselling 2003 novel by ex-Marine sniper Anthony Swofford, this doesn’t offer lots of shooting and explosions, but instead focuses on how the Iraq War of the early ‘90s AKA Operations Desert Shield and Desert Storm affected the land troops, in this case the Marines, who refer to themselves as “jarheads.” Most Americans only saw the war on television as Stormin’ Norman’s bombs ended the war in less than a week, but what about the land troops who were sent in to basically do nothing? Since this is told from the point of view of someone who was there, it’s sure to be of interest to any American interested in the current situation in Iraq, as well as those who just enjoy war movies.

In many ways, Jarhead is reminiscent of Vietnam War films like Stanley Kubrick’s Full Metal Jacket and Francis Ford Coppola’s Apocalypse Now, both considered classics by war movie fans, and it has just as much in common with David O. Russell’s latter day classic Three Kings, a film starring George Clooney and Mark Wahlberg. That action-comedy was also set in the aftermath of the Iraq war as was the Denzel Washington drama Courage Under Fire. (Denzel also served time in the desert war for his remake of The Manchurian Candidate last year.)

Most importantly, this adaptation of Swofford’s novel is helmed by an Oscar worthy director, Sam Mendes, who made the jump from stage to screen with the 1999 drama American Beauty, which made him a serious contender in Hollywood after it swept the Oscars. The screenplay is written by William Broyles Jr., nominated for his own Oscar for his screenplay for Apollo 13 before going onto write movies like Unfaithful and last year’s The Polar Express, a movie that couldn’t be any more different from this one.

The most prominent star of Mendes’ third film is Jamie Foxx, who plays more of a supporting role as Sergeant Sikes, a lifelong Marine officer assigned to lead a ragtag group of Marines into the deserts of Kuwait. This will be Foxx’s second film since winning the Oscar for his portrayal of Ray Charles in Ray, although it’s more the type of a dramatic role that fans of that film will appreciate. Or at least it is when compared to his last movie Stealth, a Rob “The Fast and the Furious/XXX” Cohen action film set in the world of jet pilots. After getting trashed by critics, it barely made just over $30 million in a key summer time slot. Jarhead will certainly have more appeal for those who enjoyed Foxx’s teaming with Tom Cruise in Collateral, which also got Foxx an Oscar nomination.

Although Jamie Foxx is going to be the biggest draw for Jarhead, this really is Jake Gyllenhaal’s movie, because he plays the main role, that of the book’s author. Of course, Gyllenhaal’s first big break was starring in Richard Kelly’s Donnie Darko, a movie that didn’t make much money at the box office but has become a bonafide cult classic. Last year, Gyllenhaal starred in Roland Emmerich’s big budget disaster blockbuster The Day After Tomorrow, and then this year, he starred opposite Gwyneth Paltrow in John Madden’s big screen adaptation of the stageplay Proof. This will be a good test to see if he has enough clout to bring audiences into see him without a lot of effects or a stronger co-star. Although Jake Gyllenhaal has a strong female following--they love those brooders--this will probably appeal more to the guys who generally go to see war movies.

Sarsgaard is having another good year. In 2003, he got critical attention for the indie drama Shattered Glass, and then last year, he had strong supporting roles in Zach Braff’s Garden State and the biodrama Kinsey. (In the former, he even played a guy who collected Operation Desert Storm trading cards.) This year, Sarsgaard made the move from indie to mainstream studio films, playing key roles in two recent thrillers, The Skeleton Key with Kate Hudson and Flightplan with Jodie Foster. The latter is currently the highest grossing film of the fall, having made $81 million, so Sarsgaard is an actor who people know. This weekend, Sarsgaard can also be seen in Craig Lucas’ The Dying Gaul, a very different type of drama opening in limited release.

Other recognizable faces in small roles include “24” star Dennis Haysbert and a fun cameo as a general by Chris Cooper, who has wowed audiences with his appearances in Adaptation and Seabiscuit, the former which got him a supporting Oscar.

The Cast
Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Stealth	7/29/05	3,495		$13.25	$3,792	$31.70
Ray	10/29/04	2,006		$20.04	$9,990	$75.24
Collateral	8/6/04	3,188		$24.70	$7,748	$101.00
Proof	9/16/05	517	$2.91	$1.48	$2,867	$6.64
The Day After Tomorrow	5/28/04	3,425		$68.74	$20,071	$186.58
Moonlight Mile	10/4/02	434	$0.45	$1.88	$4,338	$6.79
Flightplan	9/23/05	3,424		$24.63	$7,193	$77.90
The Skeleton Key	8/12/05	2,771		$16.06	$5,795	$47.81
Kinsey	11/12/04	588	$6.99	$0.84	$1,430	$10.21
Garden State	7/28/04	652	$3.50	$3.02	$4,633	$26.78

It’s been some time since there was a decent war film, maybe became the country has actually been at war for a long time and you can just turn on the news to see it for free. The most successful recent war film was of course, Steven Spielberg’s WWII epic Saving Private Ryan, starring Tom Hanks, which grossed over $200 million. After the terrorist attacks of September 11^th, 2002 became a hotbed for war films, beginning with Ridley Scott’s Black Hawk Down, also based on a true story about the Marine invasion of Mogadishu in the ‘90s, followed by the Mel Gibson WWII epic We Were Soldiers and John Woo’s Windtalkers, starring Nicholas Cage. Over the course of those three movies, you could already start to see the signs of diminishing returns as audiences started getting burnt out on war films, but the former could have done better because it was more current, much like Jarhead. (This past summer, Miramax Films dumped the WWII film The Great Raid into moderate theatres, but it didn’t do particularly well.)

Although some will read Mendes’ movie as a message against war, just as many will see it as a testament to our soldiers currently fighting overseas. Some might avoid the movie altogether, only because they’re worried that it may be overtly political or weighed towards one side of the debate or another. That said, the strong commercials, edited to Kanye West’s hit single ”Jesus Walks,” have been airing non-stop ensuring that awareness for the film will be high. Reviews could play a large factor in how well Jarhead does this weekend, and critics will certainly be mixed depending on their own feelings about our part in the current war. Those just wanting to go see a good war film will also get the added bonus of seeing the final trailer for Peter Jackson’s King Kong.

Related Comparisons
Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Road to Perdition	7/12/02	1,797		$22.08	$12,267	$104.05
American Beauty	10/1/99	706	$10.21	$8.19	$11,601	$130.06
Tears of the Sun	3/7/03	2,973		$17.06	$5,737	$43.63
Windtalkers	6/14/02	2,898		$14.52	$5,010	$40.91
We Were Soldiers	3/1/02	3,143		$20.21	$6,431	$78.12
Black Hawk Down	1/18/02	3,101	$1.85	$33.63	$10,844	$108.58
Three Kings	10/1/99	2,942		$15.85	$5,387	$60.65
Saving Private Ryan	7/24/98	2,463		$30.58	$12,416	$216.12
Courage Under Fire	7/12/96	1,986		$12.50	$6,294	$59.00

Why I Should See It: A highly relevant story with a great cast made by a highly respected director promises to make this a very different war film.
Why Not: Who wants to see a war movie about a boring war that lasted less than a week?

Bottom Line: The first major studio war-related film in quite some time has a lot going for it, not only its cast and director, but also because it just looks like the kind of thing that American guys over 20 might be interested in seeing, especially those who remember the war and want to see what we didn’t see on TV. Expect it to do decent business this weekend and to maintain a strong presence depending on the reviews, word-of-mouth and any Oscar nominations.(Update: Awareness and interest in this film has built so much in the last week that my earlier projection has been increased despite the low theatre count.)

Projection: $20 to 22 million opening weekend on its way to $85 million .

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UNDER THE RADAR

Do you live in a major North American city? If so, there are a number of limited release movies worth checking out. And if you don't live in one of the cities in which these movies open, look for some of them to hit your area sometime in the next few months.

This week’s Warrior’s Pick is Jarhead. (See above)

Craig Lucas’ THE DYING GAUL (Strand Releasing) stars Peter Sarsgaard as a gay screenwriter whose grief over the death of his lover puts him in bed (literally and figuratively) with a shady Hollywood producer and his wife, played by Campbell Scott and Patricia Clarkson. It opens in New York and Los Angeles. MY REVIEW

Katrina Holden Bronson’s directorial debut DALTRY CALHOUN (Miramax) finally gets released in New York. Johnny Knoxville plays the title character, a Tennessee “lawn magnate” who suddenly discovers that he has a teen daughter (Sophie Traub), when his ex-girlfriend (40 Year Old Virgin’s Elizabeth Banks) shows up on his mansion doorstep. Mini-Revew: This movie's title is a bit of a misnomer, because it's not so much about Knoxville's character, as it is about his teen daughter June. It's Sophie Traub who steals the movie as the latter, adding an endearing charm to this coming-of-age story that will often have you scratching your head, only because Bronson never really figures out what it wants to be. Rating: 6 out of 10

Kate Montgomery’s holiday film CHRISTMAS IN THE CLOUDS (Slowhand Cinema) is a comedy set in a luxury resort that is about to be visited by an anonymous critic, causing chaos and turmoil as the manager tries to get his staff to shape up for the arrival, not to mention a bit of mistaken identity. Featuring a mostly Native American cast, the film opens in limited release on Friday.

Opening in Austin, Texas is NATIONAL LAMPOON’S ADAM AND EVE (Lightning Entertainment), a romantic comedy by Justin and Jeff Kanew about a singer/songwriter named Adam who begins dating a college girl named Eve, who turns out to be a virgin. Yes, it’s the horror and humor of dating someone who doesn’t want to have sex with you. Know it all too well.

Cassandra Nicolau’s SHOW ME (Wolfe Releasing) is a thriller about a woman kidnapped by two panhandling kids and held at knifepoint in an isolated cottage. Opening in Los Angeles is I LOVE YOUR WORK (THINKFilm), Adam Goldberg’s satire about a movie star (Giovanni Ribisi) losing his grip on reality due to his increasing celebrity status. THE COMEDIANS OF COMEDY (Vitagraph Films) is a documentary following four comedians as they touring the United States: Maria Bamford, Zach Galifianakis, Patton Oswalt and Brian Posehn. No, I haven’t heard of any of them either, but it opens in New York. Opening at New York’s Quad Cinemas, GAY SEX IN THE 70s (Lovett Productions) is a documentary by Joseph Lovett about the hedonistic sex lives of homosexuals in New York between the advent of Stonewall in 1969 and the first cases of AIDS in the early ‘80s.

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THIS TIME LAST YEAR

Last year, Disney saw a turnaround from their comparatively weak summer with the release of The Incredibles, Pixar Studios’ sixth feature film, into just under 4,000 theatres. It followed their hugely successful animated film Finding Nemo, which earned over $330 million in 2003 and earned an animation Oscar. Despite its PG rating, The Incredibles grossed an astonishing $70.5 million its opening weekend, slightly more than Finding Nemo, and it would go on to earn $260 million and its own Oscar in the same category, Offering a bit of counter-programming, or trying desperately, was the remake of Alfie, starring Jude Law in the role made famous by Michael Caine. It only earned $6.2 million opening weekend in 2,215 theatres, continuing Law’s bad fall run that began with Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow. This left plenty of room for other movies to hold up as Jamie Foxx’s Ray remained in the #2 spot with another $13.6 million, and movies like Shall We Dance, Friday Night Lights and Ladder 49 continued to bring in steady business. Despite the debut of The Incredibles, DreamWorks’ Shark Tale crossed the $150 million mark over the weekend, as well.

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Next week, 50 Cent stars in the crime-drama Get Rich or Die Tryin’, Clive Owen and Jennifer Aniston get Derailed, and Sony releases the family adventure Zathura.

Copyright 2005 Edward Douglas

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