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Preview and Projections for the Weekend
of March 4, 2005
By Edward Douglas -
Greetings and welcome back to the Weekend
Warrior, your weekly guide to the weekend’s new movies. Tune in every
Tuesday for the latest look at the upcoming weekend, and then check
back
on Friday for any last minute updates.
WEEKEND PROJECTIONS - final update 3.3.05
Third month of the year is the third week with three new movies, two
of them high profile comedies that will likely split moviegoers this
weekend. John
Travolta returns as Chili Palmer, the Hollywood gangster from the movie version
of Elmore Leonard’s Get Shorty, this time taking on the music business
in Be Cool. The large ensemble cast offers something for everyone
with popular stars like Uma Thurman, Vincent Vaughn and Cedric the Entertainer,
which should make it the shoe-in for the top spot. Then again, Vin Diesel
breaks type playing a navy seal guarding a bunch of kids in Disney’s family
comedy The Pacifier, which should bring in enough family audiences
over the weekend to make a strong play for second place. The sci-fi thriller The
Jacket from
British film director John Maybury is getting a rather low-key release despite
starring Adrien Brody and Keira Knightley. Treading similar ground as last
year’s Ashton Kutcher thriller The Butterfly Effect, it may be too
bizarre to find a mainstream audience. Meanwhile, last
week’s #1 and 2 movies, Hitch and Diary of a Mad Black Woman may
fight it out for third place, while Clint Eastwood's Million Dollar
Baby will likely get a nice bump from its Oscar wins. (After seeing Million
Dollar Baby for a second time, I've decided to forgive the Academy.)
|
TW |
LW |
Title |
Weekend (in millions) |
Change |
# Of Theaters |
Average |
Week |
|
1 |
New |
$27.0 |
N/A |
3,216 |
$8,396 |
1 |
|
|
2 |
New |
$22.0 |
N/A |
3,131 |
$7,186 |
1 |
|
|
3 |
1 |
Diary of a Mad Black Woman |
$12.6 |
-43% |
1,703 |
$7,399 |
2 |
|
4 |
2 |
Hitch |
$12.0 |
-42% |
3,438 |
$3,490 |
4 |
|
5 |
6 |
Million Dollar Baby |
$9.0 |
23% |
2,350 |
$3,830 |
12 |
|
6 |
3 |
Constantine |
$5.7 |
-52% |
2,758 |
$2,067 |
3 |
|
7 |
New |
$5.3 |
N/A |
1,331 |
$4,074 |
1 |
|
|
8 |
5 |
Man of the House |
$5.0 |
-45% |
2,422 |
$2,064 |
2 |
|
9 |
6 |
Because of Winn-Dixie |
$4.4 |
-35% |
2,506 |
$1,756 |
3 |
|
10 |
4 |
Cursed |
$4.1 |
-58% |
2,805 |
$1,462 |
2 |
| Est. Weekend Total |
Est. Avg. Drop-Off |
Est. Average PTA |
BE COOL (MGM
Studios)|
Travolta, Thurman and Vaughn |
||||||
|
Title |
Release Date |
Theater Count |
Weekend Box Office (in millions) |
Average |
Total Box Office |
|
|
Ladder 49 |
10/1/04 |
3260 |
$22.09 |
$6,776 |
$74.54 |
|
|
Basic |
3/28/03 |
2,876 |
$11.51 |
$4,003 |
$26.60 |
|
|
Domestic Disturbance |
11/2/01 |
2,910 |
$14.03 |
$4,822 |
$45.21 |
|
|
Primary Colors |
3/20/98 |
1,965 |
$12.05 |
$6,132 |
$39.30 |
|
|
Lucky Numbers |
10/27/00 |
2,497 |
$4.54 |
$1,818 |
$10.01 |
|
|
Get Shorty |
10/20/95 |
1,612 |
$12.70 |
$7,878 |
$72.00 |
|
|
Pulp Fiction |
10/14/94 |
1,338 |
$9.31 |
$6,958 |
$107.93 |
|
|
Kill Bill Vol. 2 |
4/16/04 |
2,971 |
$25.10 |
$8,450 |
$66.21 |
|
|
Kill Bill Vol. 1 |
10/10/03 |
3,102 |
$22.09 |
$7,121 |
$69.82 |
|
|
Dodgeball: A True Underdog Story |
6/18/04 |
2,694 |
$30.07 |
$11,162 |
$114.06 |
|
|
Starsky & Hutch |
3/5/04 |
3,185 |
$28.10 |
$8,824 |
$88.20 |
|
|
Old School |
2/21/03 |
2,689 |
$17.45 |
$6,491 |
$75.16 |
|
|
Related Comparisons |
||||||
|
Title |
Release Date |
Theater Count |
Weekend Box Office (in millions) |
Average |
Total Box Office |
|
|
The Italian Job |
5/30/03 |
2,633 |
$19.46 |
$7,390 |
$105.63 |
|
|
The Whole Ten Yards |
4/9/04 |
2,654 |
$6.69 |
$2,519 |
$16.32 |
|
|
The Whole Nine Yards |
2/18/00 |
2,910 |
$13.73 |
$4,720 |
$57.26 |
|
|
Analyze That |
12/6/02 |
2,635 |
$11.03 |
$4,186 |
$31.82 |
|
|
Analyze This |
3/5/99 |
2,518 |
$18.38 |
$7,299 |
$106.69 |
|
|
Barbershop 2: Back in Business |
2/6/04 |
2,711 |
$24.24 |
$8,942 |
$64.96 |
|
|
The Big Bounce |
1/30/04 |
2,304 |
$3.34 |
$1,448 |
$6.47 |
|
|
Big Trouble |
4/5/02 |
1,961 |
$3.55 |
$1,808 |
$7.26 |
|
|
Out of Sight |
6/26/98 |
2,106 |
$12.02 |
$5,708 |
$37.56 |
|
|
Jackie Brown |
12/26/97 |
1,370 |
$9.01 |
$6,577 |
$39.67 |
|
THE JACKET (Warner
Independent Pictures)|
Related Comparisons |
||||||
|
Title |
Release Date |
Theater Count |
Previous Box Office (in millions) |
Weekend Box Office (in millions) |
Average |
Total Box Office |
|
The Pianist |
3/28/03 |
557 |
$9.77 |
$1.45 |
$2,613 |
$32.52 |
|
Summer of Sam |
7/2/99 |
1,536 |
$5.99 |
$3,900 |
$19.13 |
|
|
King Arthur |
7/9/04 |
3,086 |
$8.43 |
$15.19 |
$4,924 |
$51.80 |
|
Love Actually |
11/7/03 |
576 |
$6.89 |
$11,955 |
$59.08 |
|
|
Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl |
7/11/03 |
3,269 |
$24.00 |
$46.63 |
$14,264 |
$305.41 |
|
The Butterfly Effect |
1/23/04 |
2,605 |
$17.07 |
$6,551 |
$57.65 |
|
|
Gothika |
11/21/03 |
2,382 |
$19.29 |
$8,097 |
$58.95 |
|
|
Frailty |
4/12/02 |
1,497 |
$4.21 |
$2,806 |
$13.08 |
|
|
Twelve Monkeys |
1/5/96 |
1,533 |
$0.37 |
$13.84 |
$9,028 |
$57.14 |
|
Jacob's Ladder |
11/2/90 |
1,052 |
$7.50 |
$7,129 |
$25.97 |
|
THE PACIFIER (Walt
Disney Pictures)|
Related Comparisons |
||||||
|
Title |
Release Date |
Theater Count |
Previous Box Office (in millions) |
Weekend Box Office (in millions) |
Average |
Total Box Office |
|
The Chronicles of Riddick |
6/11/04 |
2,757 |
$24.29 |
$8,810 |
$57.64 |
|
|
A Man Apart |
4/4/03 |
2,459 |
$11.02 |
$4,481 |
$26.50 |
|
|
XXX |
8/9/02 |
3,374 |
$44.51 |
$13,191 |
$141.20 |
|
|
The Fast and the Furious |
6/22/01 |
2,628 |
$40.09 |
$15,255 |
$144.51 |
|
|
Are We There Yet? |
1/21/05 |
2,709 |
$18.58 |
$6,857 |
$71.92 |
|
|
Cheaper By the Dozen |
12/26/03 |
3,298 |
$8.18 |
$27.56 |
$8,356 |
$128.03 |
|
Daddy Day Care |
5/9/03 |
3,370 |
$27.62 |
$8,197 |
$103.55 |
|
|
Bringing Down the House |
3/7/03 |
2,801 |
$31.10 |
$11,104 |
$132.68 |
|
|
Suburban Commando |
10/4/91 |
899 |
$0.52 |
$2.47 |
$2,747 |
$6.92 |
|
Kindergarten Cop |
12/21/90 |
1,833 |
$14.72 |
$8,031 |
$90.57 |
|
| Mini-Review: While the message about keeping the American troops in mind is an important one, Gunner Palace is not a very good documentary. The few intelligent thoughts are overrun by soldiers acting like clowns and taking advantage of the cameras to create their own bad rap music videos. A poort attempt to latch onto Michael Moore’s coattails. Rating: 5 out of 10 |
| Mini-Review: Ian McKellen and Deborah Kara Unger are both excellent, but the rest of the cast and the weak script make this a rather bland and slow drama. Would probably have been better as an off-Broadway stage play. Rating: 4 out of 10 |
Mini-Review: Although it takes a while to get going, Carlos Sorin's sweet little slice-of-life story is a real crowdpleaser that wins you over with its fun characters and situations. Rating: 8 out of 10 |
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