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Preview and Projections for the Weekend
of June 3, 2005
By Edward Douglas -
Greetings and welcome back to the Weekend
Warrior, your weekly guide to the weekend's new movies. Tune in every
Tuesday for the latest look at the upcoming weekend, and then check
back on Friday for any last minute updates and reviews. (Note: Due to
my impending vacation, the final update is early this week and next
week’s column will likely be a day or two late.)
WEEKEND PROJECTIONS - final update 6.01
Things settle down a bit as the month of June brings a small respite
in between blockbusters. The first weekend of the month has three
low-key
movies trying to takes some box office bucks away from the blockbusters.
Standing the best chance at cracking the top 3 is Cinderella Man,
reuniting director Ron Howard with his A Beautiful Mind star
Russell Crowe, who appears in his first film in over eighteen months
along with Renee Zellweger (Chicago). It should provide suitable
counter-programming to the May blockbusters for older movie lovers,
who’ll have more confidence in the film’s quality due to its impressive
credentials. With no strong box office stars, the other two movies
could
split up the teen audiences looking for something new. Lords of
Dogtown,
a ‘70s biodrama about the origins of professional skateboarding, will
certainly seem hipper than the teen chick flick The Sisterhood
of the Traveling Pants, but that has a guaranteed audience in
young teen girls who love Anne Brashare’s books. Opening on Wednesday, The
Sisterhood may win out due to the advantage it has in theatres,
but the skateboarding crowd may flock to Dogtown in force.
While George Lucas’ final Star Wars chapter may hold sway
over the box office for a third weekend in a row, expect DreamWorks’ Madagascar
to narrow the margin between them, and don’t be surprised if it
passes it and steals the top spot, especially with no other true family
fare in theatres. (Update: My reviews of Cinderella Man and Lords
of Dogtown have been added.)
|
TW |
LW |
Title |
Weekend (in millions) |
Change |
# Of Theaters |
Average |
Week |
|
1 |
3 |
Madagascar |
$27.5 |
-42% |
4,161 |
$6,609 |
2 |
|
2 |
1 |
Star Wars: Episode III |
$26.5 |
-52% |
3,330 |
$7,958 |
3 |
|
3 |
New |
$23.8 |
N/A |
2,811 |
$8,467 |
1 |
|
|
4 |
2 |
The Longest Yard |
$23.0 |
-52% |
3,634 |
$6,329 |
2 |
|
5 |
New |
$10.3 |
N/A |
2,583 |
$3,988 |
1 |
|
|
6 |
New |
$8.5 |
N/A |
1,865 |
$4,558 |
1 |
|
|
7 |
4 |
Monster-in-Law |
$6.0 |
-42% |
2,950 |
$2,069 |
4 |
|
8 |
6 |
Crash |
$3.5 |
-24% |
1,500 |
$2,333 |
5 |
|
9 |
5 |
Kicking and Screaming |
$2.4 |
-53% |
2,450 |
$980 |
4 |
|
10 |
7 |
The Interpreter |
$1.1 |
-47% |
900 |
$1,222 |
7 |
|
Est. Weekend Total |
Est. Avg. Drop-Off |
Est. Average PTA |
CINDERELLA MAN (Universal
Pictures)|
Related Comparisons |
||||||
|
Title |
Release Date |
Theater Count |
Previous Box Office (in millions) |
Weekend Box Office (in millions) |
Average |
Total Box Office |
|
Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World |
11/14/03 |
3,101 |
$25.11 |
$8,096 |
$87.57 |
|
|
A Beautiful Mind |
1/4/02 |
1,853 |
$21.21 |
$16.57 |
$8,940 |
$170.71 |
|
The Missing |
11/28/03 |
2,756 |
$4.40 |
$10.84 |
$3,931 |
$26.70 |
|
Gladiator |
5/5/00 |
2,938 |
$34.82 |
$11,852 |
$186.61 |
|
|
Apollo 13 |
6/30/95 |
2,197 |
$25.35 |
$11,538 |
$172.07 |
|
|
Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason |
11/12/04 |
530 |
$8.68 |
$16,385 |
$40.20 |
|
|
Cold Mountain |
12/26/03 |
2,163 |
$4.51 |
$14.57 |
$6,738 |
$78.38 |
|
Chicago |
2/7/03 |
1,841 |
$53.02 |
$10.79 |
$5,859 |
$170.68 |
|
Bridget Jones's Diary |
4/13/01 |
1,611 |
$10.73 |
$6,662 |
$71.50 |
|
|
Sideways |
10/22/04 |
144 |
$2.34 |
$1.41 |
$9,825 |
$71.50 |
|
Seabiscuit |
7/25/03 |
1,987 |
$20.85 |
$10,495 |
$120.20 |
|
|
Million Dollar Baby |
1/28/05 |
2,010 |
$9.31 |
$12.27 |
$6,102 |
$100.28 |
LORDS OF DOGTOWN (Sony/TriStar
Pictures)In the mid-70’s, a group of teen
surfers from Venice, California formed a skateboarding team known as the “Z-Boyz”,
turning a fad into a sport by introducing a number of wild surfing-influenced
moves that had not been seen before. But the fame and fortune that came
along with their newfound notoriety eventually leads to friction between
the friends.
Mini-Review: While Robinson and Rasuk once again shine
in their respective roles, the performances by Hirsch and Ledger are fairly
embarassing. The large portions of dramatic
license take away from the actual story, which is seen at its worst in
the way that Peralta makes his own character seem like a perfect angel
compared to the rest of the Z-Boys. The weak script is so
full of "Dude"s and "Bro"s that it makes the
the innovators of professional skateboarding seem like complete idiots,
which is a real shame. Rating: 5 out of 10
Essentially, what we have here is an indie film made to look like
a major studio action drama. The project’s genesis came out of Dogtown
and Z-Boys, a documentary by surfer and skateboarding legend
Stacy Peralta about the origins of modern skateboarding in Southern
California.
After his documentary wowed audiences at the Sundance Film Festival,
he proceeded to write a biodrama based on that story, which eventually
fell into the hands of another Sundance darling Catherine Hardwicke,
whose first film Thirteen also got attention there. (Originally,
Limp Bizkit frontman Fred Durst was going to make this his directorial
debut, and even director David Fincher was attached at one point.)
Hardwicke gathered a diverse cast for the movie, but the three
actors best known to teen audiences will be Heath Ledger, Emile
Hirsch and Johnny
Knoxville. Ledger, who plays the sleazy surf shop owner who created
the Zephyr skateboard team, got his break appearing opposite Mel
Gibson in The
Patriot. After the success of his own action-adventure A
Knight’s
Tale, Ledger hit a rough spot as most of his movies that followed--The
Four Feathers, The Order and Ned Kelly--bombed.
With his star power on the decline, Ledger may have to rely on
his younger
co-star Emile Hirsch, who plays Jay Adams, the most outrageous
and out-of-control of the Zephyrs team. Though Hirsch has received
a
bit of critical buzz
over the years, that hasn’t translated into box office success
for whatever reason. After appearing in the Jodie Foster produced
indie The Dangerous
Lives of Altar Boys, Hirsch co-starred with Kevin Kline in The
Emperor’s Club. The Easter 2004 comedy The Girl Next Door was
supposed to be Hirsch’s big breakout, but even that didn’t find
much of an audience; neither did his recent indies The Mudge Boy and Imaginary
Heroes.
The actor with the most credibility among Dogtown’s target young
male audience is Johnny Knoxville, a non-pro skateboarder who originated
the MTV stunt show “Jackass”, which spawned its own box office
hit with Jackass:
The Movie. Knoxville followed by co-starring with The Rock
in a remake of Walking Tall and by starring in John Waters’ NC-17
rated indie, A
Dirty Shame. Oddly, none of the actors are even mentioned in
the trailer or commercials, so obviously, any perceived star power
they might
have will not be enough to sell the movie.
The rest of the cast is made up of some of the finest young actors
from the world of independent film. Peralta himself is played by
John Robinson
(Gus Van Sant’s Elephant), Tony Alva is played by Victor Rasuk
(Raising Victor Vargas), and Hardwicke is reunited with the
young hottie Nikki Reed, who she discovered for Thirteen.
America Ferrara (Real Women Have Curves), who also stars in
this week’s The
Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants, has a small part. Few will
recognize the returning Rebecca DeMornay, who pulls a Charlize Theron
by playing
the rather unglamorous and almost ugly mother of Jay Adams.
With the look and feel of hip 70’s biodramas like Cameron Crowe’s Almost
Famous and P. T. Anderson’s Boogie Nights, the movie
should have some appeal to the snobbish indie movie crowd, who
will be the
most familiar with Peralta and Hardwicke’s previous work. Fortunately, Lords
of Dogtown was able to get a PG-13 rating despite the amount
of sex and drug use in the movie, which means that younger skateboard
enthusiasts
can make this their first choice for new movies this weekend, and
it
might even be able to grab some of the young teen females who are
into “skater
boyz” away from The Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants.
Skateboarders are a difficult breed to pin down, so it’s somewhat faulty
logic to assume that they’d rush out to see a movie based on their hobby.
After all, they’re also the same demographic likely to spend their
time playing video games or riding their boards rather than sitting
in a theatre.
The 2003 skateboard comedy Grind proved this by making almost
no money in theatres after a strong promotional push. At least Dogtown has
a lot more credibility, both as a movie and a document of the times,
since Stacy Peralta and fellow Z-Boy Tony Alva acted as consultants
on the production, even training the young actors to ride and do
a lot of
their own stunts. Awareness for the movie among the young skater
crowd is growing thanks to a strong push on MTV, including a half
hour special
on MTV2, although it’s getting a rather moderate release into less
than 2,000 theatres, which is always somewhat worrisome.
|
Related Comparisons |
||||||
|
Title |
Release Date |
Theater Count |
Previous Box Office (in millions) |
Weekend Box Office (in millions) |
Average |
Total Box Office |
|
Dogtown and Z-Boys |
4/26/02 |
20 |
$0.10 |
$5,168 |
$1.29 |
|
|
Thirteen |
8/20/03 |
108 |
$1.24 |
$0.62 |
$5,783 |
$4.60 |
|
The Four Feathers |
9/20/02 |
1,912 |
$6.86 |
$3,587 |
$18.31 |
|
|
A Knight's Tale |
5/11/01 |
2,980 |
$16.51 |
$5,541 |
$56.08 |
|
|
The Girl Next Door |
4/9/04 |
2,148 |
$6.00 |
$2,795 |
$14.59 |
|
|
The Emperor's Club |
11/22/02 |
809 |
$3.85 |
$4,755 |
$14.06 |
|
|
Walking Tall |
4/2/04 |
2,836 |
$15.50 |
$5,466 |
$45.86 |
|
|
Jackass: The Movie |
10/25/02 |
2,509 |
$22.76 |
$9,072 |
$64.27 |
|
|
Grind |
8/15/03 |
2,253 |
$2.51 |
$1,115 |
$5.11 |
|
|
Almost Famous |
9/22/00 |
1,193 |
$3.22 |
$6.93 |
$5,809 |
$32.47 |
THE SISTERHOOD OF THE
TRAVELING PANTS (Warner Brothers Pictures)|
Related Comparisons |
||||||
|
Title |
Release Date |
Theater Count |
Previous Box Office (in millions) |
Weekend Box Office (in millions) |
Average |
Total Box Office |
|
Tuck Everlasting |
10/11/02 |
1,185 |
$5.27 |
$4,446 |
$19.14 |
|
|
The Divine Secrets of the Ya-Ya Sisterhood |
6/7/02 |
2,507 |
$16.17 |
$6,449 |
$69.59 |
|
|
The Ice Princess |
3/18/05 |
2,501 |
$6.80 |
$2,722 |
$21.40 |
|
|
A Cinderella Story |
7/16/04 |
2,625 |
$13.62 |
$5,190 |
$51.14 |
|
|
Confessions of a Teenage Drama Queen |
2/20/04 |
2,503 |
$9.35 |
$3,736 |
$29.30 |
|
|
How to Deal |
7/18/03 |
2,319 |
$5.81 |
$2,505 |
$14.11 |
|
|
What a Girl Wants |
4/4/03 |
2,964 |
$11.43 |
$3,858 |
$35.99 |
|
|
A Walk To Remember |
1/25/02 |
2,411 |
$12.18 |
$5,051 |
$41.23 |
|
|
Beautician and the Beast |
2/7/97 |
1,801 |
$4.08 |
$2,265 |
$11.47 |
|
|
Dunston Checks In |
1/12/96 |
1,290 |
$3.00 |
$2,326 |
$9.42 |
|
| This week’s WARRIOR’S
PICKS are
Pierre Salvadori’s madcap French comedy APRES VOUS (Paramount
Classics) and Don Argott’s hilarious documentary ROCK
SCHOOL (Newmarket Films), both opening in limited release. Apres Vous is the hilarious tale of how the lives of two very different guys (Daniel Auteuil and Jose Garcia) are permanently linked when one saves the other from a suicide attempt and feels responsible for reuniting him with his ex-girlfriend, only to fall in love with her himself. Mini-Review: A highly amusing and original situational comedy with top-notch comic performances from Auteuil and Garcia that has all the right elements to be adapted into an English language remake. Scenes involving a stray lobster and a wine-tasting audition will have you in stitches. RATING: 9 out of 10. Fans of Jack Black’s School of Rock will want to check out Rock School, the first documentary of the year that has the potential for Super Size Me levels of success. It goes inside the Paul Green School of Rock Music, where the school’s eponymous founder and main teacher drives his kids with all sorts of zany tactics to get them to be better musicians. MY REVIEW |
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