TW	LW	Title	Weekend (in millions)	Change	# Of Theaters	Average	Week
1	New	Stealth	$23.5	N/A	3,495	$6,724	1
2	2	Wedding Crashers	$20.2	-22%	3,030	$6,667	4
3	1	Charlie and the Chocolate Factory	$17.5	-38%	3,775	$4,636	3
4	New	Must Love Dogs	$14.6	N/A	2,505	$5,828	1
5	New	Sky High	$12.4	N/A	2,905	$4,269	1
6	3	Fantastic Four	$7.3	-42%	2,744	$2,660	4
7	5	Bad News Bears	$7.0	-39%	3,183	$2,199	2
8	4	The Island	$6.8	-45%	3,138	$2,167	2
9	7	Hustle & Flow	$4.9	-39%	1,015	$4,828	2
10	6	War of the Worlds	$4.6	-49%	2,324	$1,979	5
			Est. Weekend Total $118.80	Est. Avg. Drop-Off -39%		Est. Average PTA $4,206

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MUST LOVE DOGS (Warner Bros. Pictures)
Starring: Diane Lane, John Cusack, Elizabeth Perkins, Alli Hillis, Christopher Plummer, Stockard Channing, Dermot Mulroney, Julie Gonzalo
Directed by: Gary David Goldberg (Dad)
Genres: Comedy, Romance
Rated PG-13
Theatre Count: 2,505
Tagline: "The hardest trick is making them stay.”
MY REVIEW
(Welcome back to last week’s guest Alex Edghill from HSB&R with this week’s write-up and projection.)

Based on the novel by Claire Cook, the plot centers around a kindergarten teacher named Sarah Nolan (Lane), a divorcee who swears off men after a devastating divorce. However, her close-knit Irish-American family decide to 'help' her along by signing her up for a number of online dating programs. She then finds herself caught between two men, as she starts seeing the father of one her students (Mulroney) and a man who she meets through the dating service who seems far too perfect (Cusack).

Warner Brothers is hoping to cash in on the lack of a quality romantic comedy in the marketplace with Must Love Dogs. To achieve these ends they have brought together two strong players in the genre, John Cusack and Diane Lane, who both have had numerous successes in the past.

John Cusack has more than enough experience in the romantic comedy genre, with his first exposure coming way back in 1984 with a bit part in the cult classic Sixteen Candles. He was a fixture in the teen comedy genre in the 80's, before graduating to more serious roles in the early 90's. Since his first film, he has starred as the lead in eight more romantic comedies, including Serendipity, America's Sweethearts, High Fidelity and Grosse Point Blank. Cusack has demonstrated in the past that he can successfully open a film on his own, and here he will also have the additional draw of Diane Lane. A late bloomer, Lane has really come into her own in the past few years. A highly regarded child star after her performance in A Little Romance (1979), opposite Sir Laurence Olivier, she graced the cover of Time with a caption of 'new young acting sensation'. However, a string of flops lead her to contemplate quitting acting altogether in the 80's, she continued on though and after a string of small successes she scored a breakout hit with a supporting role in The Perfect Storm. This brought her notoriety and lead to the well received urban drama Hard Ball, followed by her Oscar nominated role in Unfaithful and then the critically praised Under the Tuscan Sun. Lane is also a legitimate box office draw in her own right, and the two stars have a pretty consistent track record.

Diane Lane and John Cusack
Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Under the Tuscan Sun	9/26/03	1,226		$9.75	$7,954	$43.60
Unfaithful	5/8/02	2,613	$0.053	$14.07	$5,446	$51.34
Hardball	9/14/01	2,137		$9.39	$4,392	$40.22
Runaway Jury	10/17/03	2,815		$11.84	$4,205	$49.36
Identity	4/25/03	2,733		$16.23	$5,937	$51.48
Serendipity	10/5/01	2,601		$13.31	$5,117	$50.29
America's Sweethearts	7/20/01	3,011		$30.18	$10,024	$93.61
High Fidelity	3/31/00	1,183		$6.43	$5,435	$27.28
Grosse Point Blank	4/11/97	1,227		$6.87	$5,599	$28.01

So just who is director Gary David Goldberg? An award winning writer with 7 Emmy nominations and 2 wins, he has worked on numerous series including, "The Bob Newhart Show", "M*A*S*H", "Family Ties" and "Spin City", but he only has one film to his credit, the feature film Dad which only grossed $20 million. On the other hand, he was co-creator of "Family Ties" and "Spin City", and he is more than capable as a writer. His experience along with the professionalism of Lane and Cusack will more than suffice.

As mentioned earlier, Monster-in-Law, which debuted way back in May 13th, was the last out and out romantic comedy to hit the theatres and this film will be aiming to fill the void in the marketplace. Monster-in-Law did have a double hook with the timeless Jane Fonda to draw in more of the older audiences and J-Lo to attract younger moviegoers. That marketing effort was also greater than with this film (not to mention that it got over 3,400 theatres) and as such, its opening will likely be at a bit out of reach. Wedding Crashers has also done great things since opening on July 15th, although it’s been pushed more as a comedy than a romantic comedy.

Its primary audience will fall in the 35+ year-old range, and Warner Brothers has been promoting it heavily via Perfectmatch.com--the dating service they use in the film--and various print and television campaigns. In addition, the book itself has over 185,000 copies in print in both paperback and hardcover which will offer somewhat of a built in audience/free advertising.

Early reviews seem to indicate that it is your typical rom-com fare, but nothing extraordinary. Also, like how Sony handled Monster-in-Law, the film received sneak previews this past weekend in 800 locations, which should help to build awareness and buzz. (Editor’s note: There were a lot of reported sell-outs for these previews, so there’s definitely interest.) Overall, the film isn't going to break any records, but it should provide yet another solid, profitable film for both Lane and Cusack's resumes.
(Editor’s Additions: From the chart below, you can see that dating movies tend to do quite well, often depending on who it stars. From this we can determine that David Spade should never do another dating movie again.)

Dating Movies
Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Monster-in-Law	5/13/05	3,424	$23.11	$6,748	$79.88
The Wedding Date	2/4/05	1,695	$11.13	$6,566	$31.59
How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days	2/7/03	2,923	$23.77	$8,134	$105.81
Someone Like You	3/30/01	2,345	$10.01	$4,269	$27.23
Lost & Found	4/23/99	2,469	$3.02	$1,223	$6.54
You've Got Mail	12/18/98	2,691	$18.43	$6,849	$115.73
The Truth about Cats and Dogs	4/26/96	1,413	$6.77	$4,791	$34.08

Why I Should See It: Because Lane and Cusack are two incredibly talented actors, and if you are in the mood for a gushy date flick, this will be golden.
Why Not: Been there, done that, got the t-shirt. If you've seen one you've seen em all when it comes to this genre.

Bottom Line: The solid track record of both leads should continue here as the 35-year-old plus demographic will receive the film with open arms. However, the lack of an ultra-wide theatre count and marketing effort will likely limit its potential to the $5,000 to $6,000 per theatre average range. (Editor's Note: This one will be about word-of-mouth, which should be positive, versus reviews, which will be trashing the movie right and left.)

Projection: $12 to 15 million opening weekend on its way to $50 million.

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SKY HIGH (Walt Disney Pictures)
Starring: Kurt Russell, Kelly Preston, Lynda Carter, Bruce Campbell, Dave Foley, Michael Angarano, Danielle Panabaker, Mary Elizabeth Winstead, Steven Strait
Directed by: Mike Mitchell (Deuce Bigalow: Male Gigolo, Surviving Christmas)
Genres: Family, Comedy, Superhero, Action
Rated PG
Theatre Count: 2,905
Tagline: “Brains, Brawn and Beyond”
Mini-Review: This is a cute and harmless family movie with some fun ideas and characters, which might have worked better as a Disney Channel show. Things are going well until the end, when it starts turning into "Saved by the Bell" meets the "Mighty Morphin Power Rangers." Ultimately, it's still a better movie than Fantastic Four. Rating: 6 out of 10

In a world of superheroes, Will, the son of Commander Stronghold (Kurt Russell) and Jetstream (Kelly Preston), feels like an outcast in high school, because he doesn’t have any special powers. Still, with the support of his family, he might be able to get through it.

A family of superheroes is nothing new, as there have now been two huge hits based on the concept, first with last year’s Disney Pixar blockbuster The Incredibles, and then a few weeks ago with Marvel’s Fantastic Four. Both movies brought in a lot of parents and younger kids, so it’s not like the concept is a big stretch. (Yes, that pun was intended.) Then again, Sky High is only coming a little over a month after Robert Rodriguez’s (takes deep breath) The Adventures of Shark Boy and Lava Girl in 3-D, and it doesn’t look that different, well, except for not being in 3-D. In this case, the movie is set up in a world full of superheroes, a premise that has been used in comic books by popular creators like Alan Moore (“Top 10”) and Brian Michael Bendis (“Powers”). Like Fantastic Four and The Incredibles, Sky High will take a lighter and brighter look at superheroes then the other darker fare we’ve been seeing in recent years.

For Kurt Russell, Sky High continues his career-wide association with Walt Disney Pictures, who gave him an early career by starring him in movies like The Computer Wore Tennis Shoes, Charley and the Angel, and my personal favorite Superdad. This long-time relationship culminated in last year’s hit hockey drama Miracle. In the interim, he played the tough guy role in movies like John Carpenter’s Escape from New York and Big Trouble in Little China and in comedies with wife Goldie Hawn like Overboard. His star power began dwindling during the ’90s, although he’s still very well liked and respected as an actor, having never gotten caught up in the whole Hollywood tabloid game. Russell isn’t that well known among the younger generation, but enough parents should remember Russell from their own youth seeing Disney films that his name should give them some degree of confidence in the movie.

Russell’s co-star Kelly Preston has a background in this type of movie dating back to her appearance in Space Camp. (That film’s thematic sequel Battlefield Earth with hubby John Travolta didn’t do so well.) The rest of the cast offers almost as much nostalgia factor for adults, as it includes TV’s former Wonder Woman Lynda Carter and cult genre actor Bruce Campbell, who had cameos in both Spider-Man movies. There’s also David Foley from “The Kids in the Hall” and “Celebrity Poker,” but in general, the movie is all about Russell, as none of these actors are being mentioned in the television or print ads.

Director Mike Mitchell will have to hope that this movie allows him to recover from the jinx sitting on his shoulder from directing last year’s Ben Affleck megabomb Surviving Christmas. This certainly will be a departure from his previous movie Deuce Bigalow: Male Gigolo. The screenwriters are mostly newbies and guys who’ve worked on Disney’s straight-to-video projects, but you know what? I watched Robert Schooley and Mark McCorkle’s “Buzz Lightyear of Star Command” with my 6-year-old nephew (who loves it) and it wasn’t so bad.

The one advantage that Sky High has over last year’s bomb Thunderbirds (see THIS WEEKEND LAST YEAR) is that it’s distributed by Disney, a company far more in tune with the family movie market than others. They also got a nice kicker for their movie by showing scenes from it at this year’s Comic-Con in San Diego to an audience of over 5,000 comic fans of all ages. Unfortunately, they’re also releasing the movie at a time when there are already a number of big family films still in theatres, and Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, Bad New Bears and Fantastic Four all have the name brand advantage of being based on other works. It’s a bit of a reversal on the recent anti-remake mentality, since parents are more willing to take their kids to a sure thing then something unknown.

Related Comparisons
Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
The Adventures of Shark Boy and Lava Girl in 3-D	6/10/05	2,655	$12.58	$4,739	$30.54
The Incredibles	11/5/04	3,933	$70.47	$17,917	$261.44
Thunderbirds	7/30/04	2,057	$2.77	$1,345	$6.77
Spy Kids	3/30/01	3,104	$26.55	$8,552	$106.26
Miracle	2/6/04	2,605	$19.38	$7,439	$64.37
Dark Blue	2/21/03	2,176	$3.88	$1,783	$9.24
Soldier	10/23/98	2,507	$6.45	$2,573	$14.62
Stargate	10/28/94	2,033	$15.65	$7,698	$71.45
Backdraft	5/24/91	1,852	$15.72	$8,488	$77.48

Why I Should See It: After over thirty years, you just can’t go wrong with a Disney family movie starring Kurt Russell, and let’s face it, superheroes will always be kinda fun!
Why Not: If you’re anything like me, you’d rather he go back to playing tough guys like Snake Pliskin.

Bottom Line: Yeah, Sky High is about as high concept as you can get, but the combination of Disney with a tried-and-true superhero family premise seen in The Incredibles and Fantastic Four should interest enough parents and kids alike that it should do decent business despite facing the stronger Charlie and the Chocolate Factory and Fantastic Four.

Projection: $11 to 13 million opening weekend on its way to $45 million

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STEALTH (Sony/Columbia Pictures)
Starring: Josh Lucas, Jessica Biel, Jamie Foxx, Sam Shepard, Joe Morton, Richard Roxburgh, Ian Bliss, Megan Gale, Ebon Moss-Bachrach
Directed by: Rob Cohen (The Fast and the Furious, xXx, The Skulls)
Genres: Action, Drama, Thriller
Rated PG-13
Theatre Count: 3,495
Tagline: “Fear the Sky” (Boy, that’s bad.)
Mini-Review: Sure, it's a bad movie with lame characters and ridiculous military/scientific technobabble which doesn't make sense, but you have to admire Cohen's amazing CG plane action and in-air cinematography. You also have to watch as jaw-agape, he throws away millions of dollars in exorbitant sequences of things blowing up. Then again, Team America was supposed to save us from movies like this. Rating: 5 out of 10

Three pilots taking part in a secret military program are assigned to train a jet plane piloted by artificial intelligence in various air maneuvers, but the program hits a snag when the plane develops its own warped consciousness, and it tries to start World War III.

Director Rob Cohen is a bit like Michael Bay in that there are movie fans who love his action-packed movies, and those who think he is a hack. Then again, maybe that’s the film critic in me speaking. He certainly earned a lot of respect with his 2001 hit The Fast and the Furious, and even more when he walked away from the easy money of doing a sequel to do the action movie XXX with his Fast and Furious star Vin Diesel. Unlike The Island, Cohen’s latest foray doesn’t seem to be too much of a departure from his earlier films. Stealth moves the fast-paced action up into the air with secret military stealth planes, something which may be more pertinent to today’s society, thought it might not have as much resonance with the teen audience that flocked to The Fast and the Furious, which made twice as much opening weekend as most expected, thanks to its amazing car racing action sequences. Oddly, the movie is derived from a screenplay by W.D. Richter, a screenwriter who wrote some big movies in the ‘70s and ’80s, but hasn’t had a movie produced since 1995’s Home for the Holidays.

We may never know if Cohen tried to get Vin Diesel to star as one of the jet pilots, because instead, he snagged one of 2004’s hottest stars, Jamie Foxx. After his romantic comedy Breakin’ All the Rules bombed last summer, Foxx turned things around by co-starring with Tom Cruise in Michael Mann’s Collateral, an action-thriller sleeper hit which got Foxx a supporting actor Oscar nomination. That was only the appetizer for what would be Foxx’s biggest success of his career, playing Ray Charles in Taylor Hackford’s biodrama Ray, which did decently even before Foxx began sweeping the Best Actor categories in all the awards before receiving a well-deserved Oscar earlier this year. Because of the nature of this sort of computer-effects movie, Foxx filmed Stealth before even starting on Ray, and it’s probably not the greatest way to follow-up an Oscar caliber performance, though could help solidify his name as a box office draw regardless of genre if it does well. He may want to have a talk with Hilary Swank, who may still regret doing The Core, and god only knows what her Affair of the Necklace co-star Adrien Brody was thinking by doing The Singing Detective after his own Oscar win. Another thing that might put off Foxx’s newfound fans is the fact that he’s not really the lead in the movie, as he plays second fiddle to the action and effects.

Although she hasn’t done anything nearly as awards-worthy, Jessica Biel first got attention as the eldest daughter on the WB show “Seventh Heaven” before appearing in movies like Summer Catch. In 2003, she starred in the hit remake of Tobe Hooper’s The Texas Chainsaw Massacre, but that success was matched by the disappointing showing of the threequel Blade: Trinity last December. The third part of the high-flyin’ trio is Josh Lucas, whose biggest movies so far have been The Hulk and the romantic comedy Sweet Home Alabama with Reese Witherspoon; it may be enough to get him recognized if not quite much of a draw. Either way, Sony is really marketing the film more on Cohen’s rep than on any of the actors.

Rob Cohen and the Cast
Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
XXX	8/9/02	3,374		$44.51	$13,191	$141.20
The Fast and the Furious	6/22/01	2,628		$40.09	$15,255	$144.51
The Skulls	3/31/00	2,412		$11.03	$4,573	$35.01
Ray	10/29/04	2,006		$20.04	$9,990	$75.24
Collateral	8/6/04	3,188		$24.70	$7,748	$101.00
Blade: Trinity	12/10/04	2,912	$8.42	$16.06	$5,516	$52.40
The Texas Chainsaw Massacre	10/17/03	3,016		$28.09	$9,315	$80.15
The Hulk	6/20/03	3,660		$62.13	$16,975	$132.12
Sweet Home Alabama	9/27/02	3,293		$35.65	$10,825	$126.87

Without a strong star like Vin Diesel, it may be harder for Stealth to do the type of business of Cohen’s last two movies, but what it lacks in cast, it more than makes up for in concept. There’s definitely a retro feel to the plot that reminds me of two John Badham directed ‘80s classics, Blue Thunder and War Games. Seriously, if you smoosh those two movies together, you pretty much get Stealth. Of course, no one under thirty has heard of either movie, and unfortunately, that’s the audience Cohen’s movies usually play to. They’re more likely to have heard of two more popular ‘80s films involving jet plane pilots, Tom Cruise’s early hit Top Gun and Richard Gere’s An Officer and a Gentleman, which came out around the same time. It’s doubtful that Stealth will have nearly the romance or drama of either of those films.

There’s certainly room in the market for a straight action movie like Stealth to bring in a lot of business, particularly teen guys and gals, and at least, it won’t have to worry about losing business to Michael Bay’s The Island now that it has tanked. Then again, the marketing for the movie is all over the place, as Sony has decided to get away from the whole "smart plane goes bad" plot in favor of showing the actors as three hip fun-lovin' pilots. The switch may be the only reasons why it may do decent business, if only because it looks like the type of fun ride that teens will pick in order to kill a bit of time during the summer, although it will really be more of a guilty pleasure popcorn movie then a must-see that sticks around for a long time.

Airplane Movies
Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
The Flight of the Phoenix	12/17/04	2,604		$5.02	$1,928	$21.01
Behind Enemy Lines	11/30/01	2,770		$19.20	$6,931	$58.77
Blue Thunder	5/13/83	1,539		$8.26	$5,365	$42.31
Top Gun	5/16/86	1,028		$8.19	$7,969	$176.78
An Officer and A Gentleman	6/30/82	346		$3.30	$9,551	$129.75

Why I Should See It: Rob Cohen means action, and Stealth could do for jets what The Fast and the Furious did for cars. (And when you figure out what that is, please let me know.)
Why Not: Cohen’s abilities as a storyteller leave a lot to be desired, so Foxx won’t be getting any second Oscar nominations for this one.

Bottom Line: Following hot on the heels of The Island, Rob Cohen’s latest is another fast-paced thriller which will try to lull moviegoers into theatres with the promise of action, action, action. It should do well among guys from 16 to 25 or so, but will have trouble getting other audiences away from the many other choices they’ll have. Either way, expect it to do most of its business opening weekend.

Projection: $21 to 24 million on its way to $70 million

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UNDER THE RADAR

Do you live in a major North American city? If so, there are a number of limited release movies worth checking out. And if you don't live in one of the cities in which these movies open, look for some of them to hit your area sometime in the next few months.

This week’s WARRIOR’S PICK is THE ARISTOCRATS (THINKFilm), a documentary by Paul Provenza and Penn Jillette about a racy joke that has become legendary among comedians. Over the course of the film, over 100 popular comics including Robin Williams, Whoopi Goldberg, Howie Mandel and yes, even Carrot Top, tell their own variation of the joke, explaining the history and analyzing why it’s considered so funny. The movie was considered too racy and controversial even to get an MPAA rating. MY REVIEW

Opening in New York at the Angelika is the Japanese film TONY TAKITANI (Strand Releasing) about an emotionless artist loner whose life is changed when he marries a woman fascinated by designer clothes. After losing her, he decides to try to find someone who can fill her place, quite literally. Then there’s Anna Reeves’ OYSTER FARMER (Cinema Guild), about a Sidney boy who moves into a small community of oyster farmers. When he tries to make some money by robbing a fish market, his plans are impeded by a local woman who finds the money that he stole. BALZAC AND THE LITTLE CHINESE SEAMSTRESS (Empire Pictures), a romantic drama by Dai Sijie based on his bestselling novel of the same name, also opens in New York. It’s the story of a love triangle between two friends and a uneducated seamstress in a small town during China’s cultural revolution of the ‘70s. Mini-Review: This is an interesting story--a bit like Bertolucci's The Dreamers, but not as well executed, because the actors just aren't as strong or interesting. The jump twenty years forward into the present day just completely killed the story's momentum, as well. Rating: 6 out of 10

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THIS TIME LAST YEAR

M. Night Shyamalan returned with his fourth big budget thriller The Village, set in a 19^th Century community situated in the middle of a forest filled with horrifying and dangerous creatures. The critics weren’t too courteous to Mr. Shyamalan, but that didn’t keep his fans from flocking to theatres to see it opening weekend, allowing it to gross $50 million. This would be the third weekend in a row with a new movie earning over $50 million. With a solid first place, the thriller knocked The Bourne Supremacy starring Matt Damon down a notch, as it took a tumble in its second weekend to make room for the new movies, earning just over $24 million. Jonathan Demme’s remake of The Manchurian Candidate starring Denzel Washington, Meryl Streep and Liev Shreiber placed third with a solid $20 million. In a year where R-rated comedies were not faring well, the pot-influenced Harold & Kumar Go To White Castle looked funny enough, but wasn’t able to entice anyone away from the big stars of the week, as it brought in less than $5.5 million opening weekend. Ultimately, it would go onto be profitable paving the way for a sequel, which will likely do better box office business. It still ended up doing far better than the movie version of the ’60s televison show Thunderbirds, starring Sir Ben Kingsley, which didn’t even make it into the Top 10 with a weekend gross under $3 million. Considering that the movie cost over $55 million to make, it would be considered the year’s biggest bomb.

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Next week, the popular television family The Dukes of Hazzard hit the big screen as played by Johnny Knoxville, Seann William Scott and Jessica Simpson. Also, Nick Cannon is a cop undercover in Underclassman.

Copyright 2005 Edward Douglas