Preview and Projections for the Weekend of July 15, 2005

By Edward Douglas -

Greetings and welcome back to the Weekend Warrior, your weekly guide to the weekend's new movies. Tune in every Tuesday for the latest look at the upcoming weekend, and then check back on Friday for any last minute updates and reviews.

WEEKEND PROJECTIONS - final update 7.14.05

After the weekend that finally broke the year-to-year box office slump, two new movies will try to keep the momentum going from Fantastic Four’s impressive opening. Unlike the last few weeks where one movie towers over the other, this weekend could see less of a margin since both movies are very strong among a wide range of audiences. The exciting return of Johnny Depp as Willy Wonka in Tim Burton’s new adaptation of Roald Dahl’s Charlie and the Chocolate Factory might make young and old moviegoers quite happy, since the duo has rarely done wrong. The lack of movies geared towards families should help Charlie have a decent opening, even if the weird trailers and commercials might put some people off. You should also lock up your bridesmaids as Owen Wilson and Vince Vaughn reteam after last year’s hit Starsky and Hutch for the R-rated comedy Wedding Crashers. With a dearth of strong comedies geared towards older audiences, it should have enough raunch for the guys and enough romance for the gals to bring in a decent older audience. Fantastic Four is likely to take a hefty second week tumble ala X-Men and The Hulk, especially considering how many people rushed out to see it last week, but it should be able to keep Wedding Crashers out of second place.

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CHARLIE AND THE CHOCOLATE FACTORY (Warner Bros.)
Starring: Johnny Depp, Freddie Highmore, Helena Bonham Carter, David Kelly, Noah Taylor, James Fox, Missi Pyle, Christopher Lee, Jordan Fry, Anna Sophia Robb, Julia Winter, Philip Wiegratz
Directed by: Tim Burton (Edward Scissorhands, Batman, Mars Attacks!, The Planet of the Apes, Ed Wood, Big Fish)
Genres: Fantasy, Family, Comedy
Rated PG
Theatre Count: 3,770
Tagline: “The Factory Opens July 2005”

MY REVIEW

Reclusive ‘chocolateer’ Willy Wonka (Johnny Depp) has holed himself up in his chocolate factory for decades, but one day he announces a contest, inviting five lucky kids who find Golden Tickets secretly hidden in his candy to tour his factory. For the impoverished boy Charlie Bucket, it’s the chance of a lifetime.

After spending twenty years writing short stories and other fiction, author Roald Dahl decided to start writing novels for children. After his second children’s book “James and the Giant Peach” became a hit, he created a work based on his own childhood love of sweets as its follow-up, “Charlie and the Chocolate Factory” in 1964. About a poor boy who gets the chance of a lifetime to meet his hero, the wacky Willy Wonka, it became a popular favorite, creating an even larger audience when it was adapted into a major motion picture starring Gene Wilder as Wonka. There are very few adults who haven’t seen Willy Wonka and the Chocolate Factory sometime in their life, but it’s a movie that is always remembered for its Oompa Loompas and the rather twisted way the kids met their demise.

Over thirty years later, Dahl’s book is being reimagined for modern audiences by a director who has built a reputation on his unique and wacky vision that could easily be compared to that of Dahl’s. That vision first emerged in the dark comedy Beetlejuice during the ‘80s, but Burton didn’t become a household name and a bankable commodity until he directed Batman, the first comic book based blockbuster in over a decade, and a defining moment for the director. His next movie, Edward Scissorhands, paired him for the first time with “21 Jump Street” star Johnny Depp, and then four years later, they made a biodrama about director Ed Wood, a commercial flop that was loved by the critics. In 1999, Depp played Ichabod Crane in Burton’s version of Sleepy Hollow, Depp’s biggest hit as a lead actor at that point. Two years later, Burton directed a big budget remake of Planet of the Apes, which at the time was the second biggest opening movie after Steven Spielberg’s The Lost World with $68.5 million. Ultimately, it was considered a disappointment when it didn’t gross more than $200 million, and Burton moved onto a smaller and more personal projects like Big Fish.

For many years, Johnny Depp’s career has gone hand in hand with Burton’s, but his career only moved to the next level when he broke away. His memorable role as Captain Jack Sparrow in Disney’s 2003 hit Pirates of the Caribbean finally brought him to the big time, earning him an Oscar nomination and a higher Hollywood Q-rating. Earlier this year, Depp got a second nomination playing “Peter Pan” author J.M. Barrie in the biodrama Finding Neverland, which also starred young Freddie Highmore, who Burton scooped up to play Charlie Bucket. When Depp and Burton made Edward Scissorhands in 1990, it certainly helped Depp be taken seriously as a leading man, but none of their films together did big business until Sleepy Hollow, nine years later. After that, Depp appeared in a number of smaller films like Roman Polanski’s The Ninth Gate and Before Night Falls, building an indie fanbase, while also finding new fans with movies like Blow and From Hell. When Pirates tripled the box office of Sleepy Hollow, Depp was well on his way, and it seemed only appropriate that he’s back working with the director who helped make him such a big star with their previous collaborations.

Depp and Burton
Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Finding Neverland	11/12/04	513	$3.08	$4.67	$9,104	$51.68
Secret Window	3/12/04	3,018		$18.24	$6,043	$47.78
Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl	7/11/03	3,269	$24.00	$46.63	$14,264	$305.41
Sleepy Hollow	11/19/99	3,062		$30.06	$9,817	$101.07
Edward Scissorhands	12/14/90	1,080		$6.33	$5,861	$53.98
Big Fish	1/9/04	2,406	$9.58	$13.81	$5,740	$66.43
Planet of the Apes	7/27/01	3,500		$68.53	$19,581	$180.01
The Nightmare Before Christmas	10/22/93	1,654	$0.32	$6.24	$3,773	$50.00
Batman	6/23/89	2,194		$42.71	$19,467	$251.19

Burton’s first and only choice to play Wonka’s factory servants, the Oompa Loompas, was the diminutive Deep Roy, who played all of them using a variety of camera trickery, computer effects and animation, and Burton maintains his love of old horror films by having Christopher Lee (Star Wars, Lord of the Rings) play Willy Wonka’s father in the flashbacks. Burton’s wife Helena Bonham Carter, English character actor David Kelly and Noah Taylor, who starred in the Lara Croft movies, round out the cast.

Charlie won’t be Burton’s first visit to Dahl’s world, since he produced a stop motion animation version of James and the Giant Peach in 1996 as the follow up his cult favorite The Nightmare Before Christmas. It wasn’t a particularly big hit, and neither was the other ‘90s adaptation of Dahl’s The Witches.

Of course, the primary audience for the movie will be Burton and Depp fans, which includes a lot of goth types from 16 to 40-year-olds goth, as well as anyone who has ever felt like an outcast. There’s also the fans of the original book and movie who’ll want to see what Burton and Depp did with it, even if they’re offended by the fact that the movie is being remade. Most of all, it will be a great PG family movie for younger kids in a market where there hasn’t been any strong kids’ movies in a long time. The premise really is perfect for a family film, because parents can take their young kids to see it and subtly teach them a lesson about being greedy or gluttonous or boastful. Just imagine if you’re a parent and your kid is always saying “I want this!” or “I want that!” Take them to the movie and you can just say “Veruca Salt” and they’ll immediately shut up.

Then again, quite a few people think that the movie just looks too damn weird, with Depp’s Wonka looking just a bit too much like alleged pedophile—oh, and let’s not forget platinum selling pop star!--Michael Jackson. Early comparisons have been made to Mike Myers’ take on Dr. Seuss’ the Cat in the Hat, which was critically panned, but still earned $100 million. Burton’s Charlie follows not too far on the heels of the failed attempt to bring the much more popular and current Lemony Snicket’s A Series of Unfortunate Events to the big screen with Jim Carrey giving a similar outlandish performance. That film only made $30 million opening weekend, but still did decently over the holiday season. No other children’s book adaptation has done nearly as well as movies based on J.K. Rowlings’ Harry Potter books, maybe since those books have sold millions to create a very strong and diehard group of fans. Actually, Rowlings may have some effect on Charlie's opening weekend, since the sixth book is released on Saturday, and it will likely cut into the box office as people stay home to read it. Dahl probably doesn’t have that many young fans, and Tim Burton might have some troubles getting his fans to stick around after Planet of the Apes and the low-key Big Fish. There also won’t be nearly as much interest to guys between the ages of 16 and 30, who’ll have plenty of other fare to choose from.

Like Batman Begins, Warner Brothers is releasing Charlie and the Chocolate Factory in IMAX its opening weekend to take advantage of the large scale of the sets and visuals. Considering how much business IMAX theatres bring in every weekend, this may end up being the format of choice for many people.

The real question is whether word-of-mouth for the $56 million opening Fantastic Four will keep it going enough in its second weekend to take away business from Charlie or whether audiences will change allegiances to the sure thing of Burton and Depp. Considering how many adults who are now parents have seen the original movie, they’re likely to want to share the experience with their kids, although some might worry that the movie is too dark, despite its PG rating. Still, with very little other family fare, Charlie and the Chocolate Factory will be the most logical choice for most this weekend.

Based on a Children’s Book
Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
James and the Giant Peach	4/12/96	2,262		$7.54	$3,333	$29.82
The Witches	8/24/90	879	$0.13	$2.22	$2,526	$10.36
Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban	6/4/04	3,855		$93.69	$24,303	$248.85
Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone	11/16/01	3,672		$90.29	$24,590	$316.82
Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events	12/17/04	3,620		$30.06	$8,304	$118.01
Dr. Seuss' The Cat in the Hat	11/21/03	3,464		$38.33	$11,065	$100.45
Dr. Seuss' How The Grinch Stole Christmas	11/17/00	3,127		$55.08	$17,614	$260.03
Stuart Little 2	7/19/02	3,255		$15.12	$4,644	$64.15
Stuart Little	12/17/99	2,878		$15.02	$5,219	$140.02

Why I Should See It: A beloved children’s classic brought to life by a director-actor team who should be able to do it justice.
Why Not: Many people will just find the whole thing to be too weird, and of course, it’s another damn remake in a year full of them.

Bottom Line: The retelling of a children’s classic by one of America’s most eccentric directors reteamed with his popular leading man Johnny Depp gives Charlie and the Chocolate Factory a number of advantages over similar kids’ books turned into movies like The Cat in the Hat and Lemony Snicket’s A Series of Unfortunate Events. Although it will primarily be targeting family audiences, you can expect the diehard Burton and Depp fans to show interest, but some may feel that this new adaptation is too weird or a needless remake of a beloved classic, and they may be wary.

Projection: $44 to 48 million opening weekend and around $150 million total.

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WEDDING CRASHERS (New Line Films)
Starring: Owen Wilson, Vince Vaughn, Rachel McAdams, Christopher Walken, Will Ferrell, Isla Fisher, Jane Seymour
Directed by: David Dobkin (Clay Pigeons, Shanghai Knights)
Genres: Comedy
Rated R
Theatre Count: 2,925
Tagline: “Life’s a party. Crash it.”
Mini-Review: If there's only one thing that can be learned from Wedding Crashers, it's that Vince Vaughn should never be margialized by a PG-13 rating ever again. In his best role since Swingers, Vaughn finds a way to take a fairly simple premise and make it into a non-stop laugh-fest. It's the best kind of comedy in that the funniest parts are not in the trailer or commercials, and it also introduces a talent to be reckoned with in Islan Fisher, who's able to keep toe-to-toe with Vaughn on the laguhs. Sure, the romance aspect does get a bit sappy towards the end, but if you're not in love with Rachel McAdams yet, you will be by the end of this movie. Rating: 8 out of 10

John Beckwith (Owen Wilson) and Jeremy Grey (Vince Vaughn) are life-long friends who have made a hobby out of lying to get into wedding receptions, where they pick up vulnerable women with even more lies. Their plans to crash the upscale wedding of a high-profile politician (Christopher Walken) go awry when John falls in love with the politician’s daughter (Rachel McAdams) and the two guys end up spending the weekend with her family…who just happen to be completely nuts!

In a summer full of remakes and sequels, it’s always nice to see some new and original ideas. In that sense, Wedding Crashers offers something different by returning to the halcyon days of R-rated summer comedies, plus it’s been a long time since there has been a comedy that looks this damn funny. Much of it has to do with the ingenious pairing of Owen Wilson and Vince Vaughn, two actors who have gained a fairly large group of fans due to their movies both alone and together, mostly by just doing their thing.

Of the two guys, Vince Vaughn’s career has certainly been stronger, but it reached a new peak in the last few years, as he’s made the move to comedy.Vaughn first got noticed playing opposite John Favreau in the thematically similar Swingers, followed by dramatic roles in Gus Van Sant’s remake of Psycho and Steven Spielberg’s mega-blockbuster sequel The Lost World. Vaughn’s real turnaround came in 2003, when he starred opposite Luke Wilson and Will Ferrell in the raunchy comedy Old School from director Todd Phillips, as people quickly realized that Vaughn was much better suited for comedy. Last year, Vaughn played the bad guy in Phillips’ remake of Starsky and Hutch and then the good guy in Dodgeball, both opposite Ben Stiller. Both of those helped Vaughn gain a strong fanbase among teens. Earlier this year, he stole the show with his “wanna be black” gangster Rog in the sequel Be Cool, and he’s coming off his biggest hit with a prominent role in the Brangelina action-comedy Mr. and Mrs. Smith last month. Even though he didn’t get top billing, his character was featured prominently in all the ads.

Owen Wilson hasn’t had such a terrific career. His best movies and roles have either teamed him with director Wes Anderson, comedian Ben Stiller or Jackie Chan, and his attempts to break away on his own have led to one surprise action hit (Behind Enemy Lines) and one huge flop (The Big Bounce). After getting attention in Anderson’s early film Bottle Rocket, Wilson found himself cast in a bunch of bad Hollywood thrillers like Anaconda and The Haunting, before his break came from teaming with Jackie Chan in the comedy western Shanghai Noon. That was followed later that year with him playing the competition for Ben Stiller’s fiancé in Meet the Parents. Wilson appeared in two more Wes Anderson films The Royal Tenenbaums (again, with Stiller) and last year’s The Life Aquatic with Steve Zissou, with a failed remake of I Spy with Eddie Murphy and a sequel to Shanghai Noon in between. Many think that Wilson can only sink or swim depending on who he is teamed with, and though Stiller and Chan are nowhere to be seen, Vaughn should provide sufficient comedic backup for Vaughn. Wedding Crashers also reteams Wilson with his Shanghai Knights director David Dobkin, who previously directed Clay Pigeons starring…wait for it…Vince Vaughn.

Vince Vaughn and Owen Wilson
Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Mr. and Mrs. Smith	6/10/05	3,424		$50.34	$14,703	$149.32
Be Cool	3/4/05	3,216		$23.45	$7,292	$55.81
Dodgeball: A True Underdog Story	6/18/04	2,694		$30.07	$11,162	$114.06
Starsky and Hutch	3/5/04	3,185		$28.10	$8,824	$88.20
Old School	2/21/03	2,689		$17.45	$6,491	$75.16
The Life Aquatic with Steve Zissou	12/10/04	1,105	$0.40	$4.55	$4,115	$24.01
The Big Bounce	1/30/04	2,304		$3.34	$1,448	$6.47
Shanghai Knights	2/7/03	2,753		$19.60	$7,121	$60.47
I Spy	11/1/02	3,182		$12.75	$4,008	$33.11
Meet the Parents	10/6/00	2,614		$28.62	$10,949	$166.23
Shanghai Noon	5/26/00	2,711		$15.61	$5,758	$56.90

With all these happy reunions, it’s a bit odd that the movie’s posters have this rather prominent after-thought “with Christopher Walken.” Now, Chris, bubbeleh. I love you dearly, man, but what makes you think that your name on the posters will do any more at getting people in theatres? Obviously, it’s not a big part or else you’d be in the trailer and commercials, but maybe someone needs to remind you of some of your other recent classics: Envy, The Country Bears, Stepford Wives, and, um, Gigli? And even fewer people saw Poolhall Junkies or Around the Bend. So while we love the Oscar nominated actor and his wacky onscreen persona, having his name on the posters won’t do much to bring people into the theatres.

On the other hand, the two gorgeous women who try to tame the wedding crashers bring a lot to the movie. Rachel McAdams will be the more familiar to movie audiences, particularly young women, for her prominent roles in Mean Girls and The Notebook, both of which got her MTV Film Awards. Isla Fisher is a hot Aussie up-and-comer who has had small roles in a bunch of movies, but then quite literally steals the movie as the semi-psychotic nympho-virgin who hooks up with and then terrorizes Vince Vaughn’s character. The cast of wacky characters is rounded out by “Dr. Quinn: Medicine Woman” herself, Jane Seymour, as a hot-to-trot Mom who hits on Owen Wilson as he tries to make time with her daughter, and Henry Gibson from “Laugh-In” as a priest.

Fortunately for Wedding Crashers, this has been the year where all the studios are shelling out remakes and sequels, and the films that have surprised many by doing the best have been the original, high concept comedies like Hitch, The Pacifier, and Mr. and Mrs. Smith. Each one of these has opened over $30 million and gone on to exceed $100 million, and part of that can be attributed to the fact that they weren’t sequels or remakes, but were simple comedy premises which audiences could immediately understand. Falling into a similar category, Wedding Crashers certainly has an advantage in a jaded summer market where audiences are looking for things that are new and different.

The movie’s R-rating might seem daunting, because it makes it harder for Wilson and Vaughn’s teen fans to see the movie, but we can’t forget that some of the best summer comedies of past years like There’s Something About Mary, American Pie and Road Trip were all rated R. All of them ended up making far more money after opening weekend. This trend has changed a bit in recent times, especially after a few failed R-rated comedies last year. Of course, if teens really want to see this, they’ll just buy tickets to another movie like Batman Begins, which won’t help Wedding Crashers either.

Releasing this movie in July seems a bit strange, since it would theme more appropriate to have released it last month during wedding season. Wedding Crashers follows in a long line of wedding-themed comedies that have done well at the box office, maybe because they’re such a universal thing that a lot more people can appreciate the humor. The highest grossing wedding movie so far is My Big Fat Greek Wedding, although this probably has more in common with Adam Sandler’s The Wedding Singer. The thing that they have in common is that they did okay opening weekend, but ended up earning a lot of money in the long-term thanks to good word-of-mouth.

Wedding Crashers will primarily be targeting guys from 17 to 30, but it should also pull in a solid amount of women due to the crushworthiness of Vaughn and Wilson, as well as the wedding/romance themes. Most of them will be brought in by word-of-mouth from advance screenings, and should proceed to tell others to check it out, which will help it do well over the rest of July and the slow month of August.

R-Rated and Wedding Comedies
Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Harold and Kumar Go to White Castle	7/30/04	2,135		$5.48	$2,567	$18.23
Road Trip	5/19/00	2,530		$15.48	$6,119	$68.53
American Pie	7/9/99	2,507		$18.71	$7,463	$101.74
There's Something About Mary	7/17/98	2,186	$4.06	$13.74	$6,285	$176.48
The Wedding Date	2/4/05	1,695		$11.13	$6,566	$31.59
My Big Fat Greek Wedding	8/2/02	657	$37.17	$3.00	$4,569	$185.24
The Wedding Planner	1/26/01	2,785		$13.51	$4,851	$60.40
The Wedding Singer	2/13/98	2,821		$19.10	$6,771	$80.25
My Best Friend's Wedding	6/20/97	2,134		$21.68	$10,159	$126.81

Why I Should See It: Owen Wilson and Vince Vaughn have provided some of the funniest movie moments in the last two years, and this is the perfect vehicle for them to let loose.
Why Not: The R-rating may keep away a lot of their teen fans.

Bottom Line: An original R-rated comedy may be just what the box office needs to keep up the momentum from last weekend’s slump breaker. Since there will be plenty of older moviegoers who won’t have any interest in Charlie or Fantastic Four, the risqué humor of Wedding Crashers and the combination of Wilson and Vaughn should make for a deadly combination that will do well despite the relatively moderate release.

Projection: $25 to 27 million opening weekend on its way to close to $100 million.

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UNDER THE RADAR

Do you live in a major North American city? If so, there are a number of limited release movies worth checking out. And if you don't live in one of the cities in which these movies open, look for some of them to hit your area sometime in the next few months.

The WARRIOR’S PICK this week is Don (The Opposite of Sex) Roos’ latest film HAPPY ENDINGS (Lions Gate Films) (but that’s only because it’s the only movie I’ve seen). It’s made up of three concurrent stories about love and dysfunction featuring an all-star ensemble cast including Maggie Gyllenhaal, Lisa Kudrow, Tom Arnold, Laura Dern, Jesse Bradford, Bobby Canavale and Steve Coogan. Two of the stories involve love triangles, while the third involves a conflict between a gay couple and their lesbian best friends trying to have a baby. Mini-Review: With fantastic performances by almost the entire cast, Don Roos has created a rather special look at real people's lives that intersect in unusual ways. Sure, it's not exactly a new idea, even for Roos, but his terrific script and direction helps you to get fully invested into the character's lives. That said, the movie just goes on too long without offering anything new to the mix, and it leaves you asking more questions then aswers. Rating: 7 out of 10

Winner of the THE WARRIOR (Miramax Films) is a film set in feudal India about the enforcer for a high-powered warlord, who must go on the run through the Himalays when he denounces his loyalties. John G. Young’s THE RECEPTION (Strand Releasing) is a comedy about a moody French woman and a gay black artist, living in upstate New York as if they were man and wife, a ruse they need to keep up when her daughter and her future husband come to visit. Both movies open in New York and Los Angeles.

The Israeli film GOD’S SANDBOX (Indican Pictures) is about an author (Juliano Merr) looking for her daughter in the Sinai Desert, who encounters a Bedouin storyteller that tells her an unusual love story about a tourist and the son of a Bedouin sheik. It opens in Los Angeles. The Korean suspense thriller MEMORIES OF MURDER (Palm Pictures) is based on a true story about a violent serial killer plaguing Seoul without leaving any evidence, and the ill-equipped detectives trying to catch him. It opens at New York’s Cinema Village. Also opening in New York is the drama ON THE OUTS (Fader Films), Lori Silverbush’s film about three teenage girls trying to cope and keep their families together: one’s a drug dealer, another’s the sheltered daughter of a single mother who falls for the wrong guy, and the third is a mother herself, desperately trying to keep her child. SEARCHING FOR THE WRONG-EYED JESUS (Shadow Distribution) is a documentary from Andrew Douglas (The Amityville Horror), following the road trip of singer Jim White through the American South. It opens in New York on Wednesday and in Los Angeles on July 29.

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THIS TIME LAST YEAR

Big Willie Smith was back on top at the box office with another hit sci-fi action movie, this time being a very loose adaptation of Isaac Asimov’s I, Robot directed by Alex Proyas (Dark City). It reigned over the weekend box office with a take of $52 million, more than twice as much as the #2 movie, Spider-Man 2. As the mega-blockbuster sequel crossed the $300 million mark, it still held up well compared to Anchorman and King Arthur, which both crashed over 50% in their second weekends. After a year of failed female-targeted comedies, Hilary Duff started her decline to the box office depths as her modern fantasy A Cinderella Story made only $14 million its opening weekend, settling for fourth place just below Anchorman. It would be considered a success compared to her next two movies, Raise Your Voice and The Perfect Man.

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Next week, four new movies including Michael Bay’s sci-fi film The Island, a new remake of Bad News Bears starring Billy Bob Thornton, the latest slasher flick from Rob Zombie The Devil’s Rejects, and this year’s big Sundance hit, Hustle & Flow. And the Weekend Warrior has a few guests!

Copyright 2005 Edward Douglas