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Preview and Projections for the Weekend
of July 1, 2005
By Edward Douglas -
Greetings and welcome back to the Weekend
Warrior, your weekly guide to the weekend's new movies. Tune in every
Tuesday for the latest look at the upcoming weekend, and then check
back on Friday for any last minute updates and reviews.
WEEKEND PROJECTIONS - final update 6.30.05
The 4th of July is all
about fireworks, barbecues, apple pie and most of all…alien invasions,
and this time, when the earth is invaded by creatures from outer space,
Will Smith isn’t around to stop them! What do we do? What do we do!?
(Okay, calm down, Keanu.) We call in Tom Cruise, the actor presumably
born on the 4th of July who has been everywhere in the last
few weeks. Cruise will face alien devastation in Steven Spielberg’s
adaptation of HG Wells’ War of the Worlds, a special effects
spectacular, which has almost as much anticipation as Spielberg’s The
Lost World, which held the opening weekend record for many years.
Because it opens on Wednesday, many will rush to see it in its first
few days, and then use the long weekend to go away, so it likely won’t
be breaking any weekend box office records. Oddly, Martin Lawrence
wasn’t asked to fill in on alien-hunting duties for his Bad Boys co-star,
so instead, he coaches a bunch of kids in basketball for a tried and
true career-saving—just ask Vin Diesel!--formula in Rebound.
With a last minute marketing campaign, it may get a scattering of Lawrence
fans or families that can’t find anything else to see this weekend,
but it’s more likely to get lost in the shuffle. Meanwhile, Batman
Begin and Mr. and Mrs. Smith should continue to pick up
any leftover business. (Note: The last two 4th of July,
I overestimated the #1 movie by $20 million…will this year be any different?)
|
TW |
LW |
Title |
Weekend (in millions) |
Change |
# Of Theaters |
Average |
Week |
|
1 |
New |
$62.2* |
N/A |
3,908* |
$15,916 |
1 |
|
|
2 |
1 |
Batman Begins |
$15.0 |
-47% |
3,765 |
$3,984 |
3 |
|
3 |
2 |
Bewitched |
$11.5 |
-44% |
3,174 |
$3,623 |
2 |
|
4 |
3 |
Mr. and Mrs. Smith |
$10.0 |
-39% |
2,985 |
$3,350 |
4 |
|
5 |
New |
$9.5 |
N/A |
2,464 |
$3,856 |
1 |
|
|
6 |
4 |
Herbie: Fully Loaded |
$8.5 |
-41% |
3,521 |
$2,414 |
2 |
|
7 |
6 |
Madagascar |
$4.7 |
-36% |
2,526 |
$1,861 |
6 |
|
8 |
5 |
Land of the Dead |
$4.2 |
-57% |
2,250 |
$1,911 |
2 |
|
9 |
7 |
Star Wars Episode III |
$3.3 |
-43% |
1,759 |
$1,876 |
7 |
|
10 |
8 |
The Longest Yard |
$2.9 |
-39% |
1,790 |
$1,620 |
6 |
| Est. Weekend Total |
Est. Avg. Drop-Off |
Est. Average PTA |
|
Title |
Release Date |
Theater Count |
Pre-Weekend Box office (in millions) |
Weekend Box Office (in millions) |
4th of July Day of Week |
Theatre Average |
Total Box Office |
|
|
1 |
Spider-Man 2 |
7/2/04 |
4,152 |
$64.26 |
$88.52 |
Sunday |
$21,232 |
$373.52 |
|
2 |
Men in Black II |
7/5/02 |
3,557 |
$35.09 |
$52.15 |
Thursday |
$14,661 |
$192.40 |
|
3 |
Men In Black |
7/4/97 |
3,020 |
$33.06 |
$51.07 |
Friday |
$16,911 |
$250.15 |
|
4 |
Independence Day |
7/5/96 |
2,882 |
$11.12 |
$50.23 |
Thursday |
$17,429 |
$306.17 |
|
5 |
Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines |
7/4/03 |
3,504 |
$28.35 |
$44.04 |
Friday |
$12,569 |
$150.35 |
|
6 |
The Perfect Storm |
6/30/00 |
3,407 |
$41.33 |
Tuesday |
$12,131 |
$182.60 |
|
|
7 |
Armageddon |
7/3/98 |
3,127 |
$18.10 |
$36.09 |
Saturday |
$11,541 |
$201.58 |
|
8 |
Terminator 2 |
7/5/91 |
2,274 |
$20.54 |
$31.77 |
Thursday |
$13,971 |
$204.84 |
|
9 |
The Firm |
7/2/93 |
2,393 |
$13.07 |
$30.48 |
Sunday |
$12,737 |
$158.35 |
|
10 |
The Wild Wild West |
7/2/99 |
3,342 |
$13.27 |
$27.72 |
Sunday |
$8,294 |
$113.81 |
|
11 |
Apollo 13 |
6/30/95 |
2,197 |
$25.35 |
Tuesday |
$11,538 |
$172.07 |
|
|
12 |
The Patriot |
6/30/00 |
3,061 |
$9.32 |
$22.41 |
Tuesday |
$7,321 |
$113.30 |
REBOUND (20th Century
Fox)|
Related Comparisons |
||||||
|
Title |
Release Date |
Theater Count |
Previous Box Office (in millions) |
Weekend Box Office (in millions) |
Average |
Total Box Office |
|
Bad Boys II |
7/18/03 |
3,186 |
$46.52 |
$14,602 |
$137.26 |
|
|
National Security |
1/17/03 |
2,729 |
$14.37 |
$5,266 |
$36.29 |
|
|
Martin Lawrence Live: Runteldat |
8/2/02 |
752 |
$7.37 |
$9,806 |
$19.18 |
|
|
Black Knight |
11/23/01 |
2,571 |
$4.31 |
$11.10 |
$4,317 |
$33.41 |
|
Big Momma's House |
6/2/00 |
2,802 |
$25.66 |
$9,158 |
$117.48 |
|
|
Bad Boys |
4/7/95 |
2,132 |
$15.52 |
$7,280 |
$65.65 |
|
|
Kicking and Screaming |
5/13/05 |
3,455 |
$20.16 |
$5,835 |
$49.62 |
|
|
Are We There Yet? |
1/21/05 |
2,709 |
$18.58 |
$6,857 |
$81.36 |
|
|
Daddy Day Care |
5/9/03 |
3,370 |
$27.62 |
$8,197 |
$103.55 |
|
|
Like Mike |
7/5/02 |
2,410 |
$6.84 |
$12.18 |
$5,054 |
$51.41 |
|
The Mighty Ducks |
10/2/92 |
1,280 |
$6.04 |
$4,719 |
$50.75 |
|
WAR OF THE WORLDS (Paramount
Pictures/Dream Works)|
Spielberg and Cruise |
||||||
|
Title |
Release Date |
Theater Count |
Previous Box Office (in millions) |
Weekend Box Office (in millions) |
Average |
Total Box Office |
|
Minority Report |
6/21/02 |
3,001 |
$35.68 |
$11,889 |
$132.01 |
|
|
Collateral |
8/6/04 |
3,188 |
$24.70 |
$7,748 |
$101.00 |
|
|
The Last Samurai |
12/5/03 |
2,908 |
$24.27 |
$8,346 |
$107.46 |
|
|
Vanilla Sky |
12/14/01 |
2,742 |
$25.02 |
$9,123 |
$100.40 |
|
|
Mission: Impossible 2 |
5/26/00 |
3,653 |
$21.00 |
$57.85 |
$15,836 |
$215.35 |
|
Mission: Impossible |
5/24/96 |
3,012 |
$18.10 |
$45.43 |
$15,083 |
$180.98 |
|
Born on the Fourth of July |
1/5/90 |
1,310 |
$1.16 |
$11.02 |
$8,412 |
$70.00 |
|
Catch Me If You Can |
12/27/02 |
3,156 |
$18.60 |
$30.08 |
$9,532 |
$144.96 |
|
A.I. Artificial Intelligence |
6/29/01 |
3,242 |
$29.35 |
$9,054 |
$78.56 |
|
|
The Lost World |
5/23/97 |
3,281 |
$2.57 |
$72.13 |
$21,984 |
$229.09 |
|
Jurassic Park |
6/12/93 |
2,404 |
$50.16 |
$20,865 |
$356.78 |
|
|
E.T. the Extraterrestrial |
6/11/82 |
1,103 |
$11.84 |
$10,730 |
$435.11 |
|
|
Close Encounters of the Third Kind |
11/16/77 |
272 |
$5.38 |
$19,777 |
$132.08 |
|
|
Related Comparisons |
||||||
|
Title |
Release Date |
Theater Count |
Previous Box Office (in millions) |
Weekend Box Office (in millions) |
Average |
Total Box Office |
|
Hide and Seek |
1/28/05 |
3,005 |
$21.95 |
$7,307 |
$51.10 |
|
|
Man on Fire |
4/23/04 |
2,979 |
$0.04 |
$22.75 |
$7,637 |
$77.86 |
|
Mystic River |
10/17/03 |
1,467 |
$3.09 |
$10.45 |
$7,121 |
$90.14 |
|
The Time Machine |
3/8/02 |
2,944 |
$22.50 |
$7,609 |
$56.68 |
|
|
Evolution |
6/8/01 |
2,611 |
$13.41 |
$5,135 |
$38.31 |
|
|
The Day After Tomorrow |
5/28/04 |
3,425 |
$68.74 |
$20,071 |
$186.58 |
|
|
Signs |
8/2/02 |
3,264 |
$60.12 |
$18,418 |
$225.77 |
|
|
Mars Attacks! |
12/13/96 |
1,955 |
$9.38 |
$4,798 |
$37.77 |
|
UNDER THE RADAR
Do you live in a major North American city? If so, there are a number of limited
release movies worth checking out. And if you don't live in one of the cities
in which these movies open, look for some of them to hit your area sometime in
the next few months.
This week’s WARRIOR’S PICK is THE BEAT THAT MY HEART SKIPPED (Wellspring
Media), the new film from Jacques Audiard (Read
My Lips), opening in New York and L.A. It’s a remake of James Toback’s “Fingers” in
which a criminal (Romain Duris) tries to get out of the loan shark and protection
business to become a concert pianist. MY REVIEW
Opening in a single theatre in New York and Los Angeles, the Australian
zombie film UNDEAD (Lions
Gate Films), written by Peter and Michael Spierig, is about a young woman
who finds herself facing the living dead after a meteorite shower hits
her
small
fishing
town home. MINI-REVIEW: No, Undead is
not the greatest zombie movie ever made, but if you can get past the weak
acting, cheesy script and lame canned music, you may actually find yourself
being entertained by a very unique
twist given to the genre in the form of aliens. Despite the problems, there's
no question that the Brothers Spierig are quite talented and inventive,
particularly in their use of gore and special effects. Rating: 4
out of 10
TWIST OF FAITH (Artistic
License Films) is a controversial religious drama about a firefighter,
a devout Catholic who was sexually abused by a Catholic priest as a youth,
creating a lifelong inner conflict in himself and in his community.
It plays in theatres in New York and San Francisco after airing on "HBO
Undercover."
Opening in New York are two films that were featured at last year’s
New York Film Festival: Winner of a special jury prize at Cannes,
the Thai film TROPICAL MALADY (Strand
Releasing) from filmmaker Apichatpong Weerasethakul, chronicles the love
story between a soldier and a country boy, who then mysteriously
disappears. THE WORLD (Zeitgeist
Films) from China’s Jia Zhangke (Platform, Unknown
Pleasures) is also about the romance between a dancer and her
security guard boyfriend who work at World Park, a recreation center where
visitors interact
with smaller replicas of international monuments. The former opens at the
brand new IFC Film Center, while the latter opens at the Cinema Village.
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