Preview and Projections for the Weekend of February 4, 2005
By Edward Douglas -

Greetings and welcome back to the Weekend Warrior, your weekly guide to the weekend’s new movies. Tune in every Tuesday for the latest look at the upcoming weekend, and then check back on Friday for any last minute updates.

WEEKEND PROJECTIONS - final update 2.03.05 (Boogeyman mini-review added!)

The first weekend of February offers yet another horror movie as well as a romantic comedy, both starring television stars who haven’t made too much headway into the world of movies. Boogeyman, starring Barry “7^th Heaven” Watson, is the latest from Sony and Sam Raimi’s Ghost House Productions, who also brought horror fans The Grudge. Although the premise seems a bit generic, the truly scary trailer and commercials could allow it to supplant Dakota Fanning’s Hide and Seek in first place this weekend. While it would be nice to see “Will and Grace” star Debra Messing have a hit with her first starring role, the romantic comedy The Wedding Date with Dermot Mulroney (My Best Friend’s Wedding) may have trouble finding an audience, because people may have felt they have already seen it before. Having received three Oscar nominations, Hotel Rwanda, starring Don Cheadle as a hotel manager who saved over a thousand people during the African genocide of the early ‘90s, expands nationwide into over 800 theatres, which should allow it to add another $2 to 3 million to its box office gross. The Super Bowl on Sunday could heavily cut into all the movies geared towards guys like Boogeyman, so the month of February might have a lighter kick-off than the amazing weekends we’ve seen in January.

TW	LW	Title	Weekend (in millions)	Change	# Of Theaters	Average	Week
1	New	Boogeyman	$20.0	N/A	3,052	$6,553	1
2	1	Hide and Seek	$10.8	-51%	3,005	$3,594	2
3	2	Are We There Yet?	$10.6	-35%	2,790	$3,799	3
4	3	Million Dollar Baby	$8.5	-31%	2,025	$4,198	8
5	New	The Wedding Date	$7.0	N/A	1,695	$4,130	1
6	6	The Aviator	$5.0	-34%	2,530	$1,976	8
7	5	Coach Carter	$4.7	-42%	2,574	$1,826	4
8	4	Meet the Fockers	$4.5	-43%	2,505	$1,796	7
9	8	Sideways	$4.4	-30%	1,787	$2,462	16
10	7	Racing Stripes	$4.3	-39%	3,003	$1,432	4
			Est. Weekend Total $79.80	Est. Avg. Drop-Off -38%		Est. Average PTA $3,177

BOOGEYMAN (Sony Pictures/Screen Gems)
Starring: Barry Watson, Emily Deschanel, Skye McCole Bartusiak, Lucy Lawless, Tory Mussett, Charles Mesure, Philip Gordon, Louise Wallace, Robyn Malcolm, Michael Saccente, Lee Foreman
Directed by: Stephen Kay (Get Carter, Six Bullets From Now, Static)
Genres: Horror
Rated PG-13
Theatre Count: 3,052
Tagline: “You thought it was just a story…but it’s real.” (And fifty years of parents telling their kids that the Boogeyman isn’t real goes down the toilets.)

Mini-Review: Horribly written, this cliche-ridden clunker drags its way from one cheap scare to the next before it all falls apart with an overladen special effects sequences that makes little sense. Skip this one and rent Poltergeist and A Nightmare on Elm Street instead. Rating: 3 out of 10

Tim (Barry Watson) must return to his childhood home and confront the visions that have terrified him his whole life. When he gets there, the evil forces behind the visions are given another chance to get their hands on him.

While horror films continue to rack up big box office dollars, you have to wonder when the bottom is going to drop out. Two years ago, this movie would have been released in a couple thousand theatres to a weak opening with no chance of legs, but as horror movies have permeated the mainstream, movies like this are bringing people out to theatres in droves.

What Boogeyman has in scares, it lacks in originality, as movies about the mythical “Boogeyman”—the guy who lives under the bed and in closets—have been regular horror fodder for years. In the early ‘80s, there was even a movie based on a Stephen King story of that name with a series of direct-to-video sequels. Its name aside, Boogeyman’s premise is still pretty standard for the horror genre, taking cues from Wes Craven’s Nightmare on Elm Street series and another Sony horror film, Darkness Falls, which was the #1 film in late January 2002, and mixing those ideas with the haunted house themes of so many recent movies.

More importantly, this is the second movie from Sam Raimi’s Ghost House Productions, makers of last October’s surprise hit The Grudge. Although Boogeyman doesn’t have a star on the par of a Sarah Michelle Gellar, Sam Raimi’s name attached to the project could be the biggest draw to horror fans who will always fondly remember his Evil Dead movies. Raimi isn’t directing this movie though, and the fact that director Stephen T. Kay was also responsible for the horrible Sly Stallone remake of Get Carter is not very promising. (Oddly, he has also been a regular on the soap opera “General Hospital” for over ten years.) Wes Craven, who has as much credibility among horror fans, hasn’t had as much luck by attaching his name to movies when he doesn’t direct them, as well.

Since horror movies are often more about the premise than the stars, it should be no surprise that this doesn’t have any big name actors. The film’s lead Barry Watson may be remembered by fans of the WB drama “7^th Heaven,” which has been responsible for the careers of many young film actors. His previous film, the awful cross-gender comedy Sorority Boys tanked in the spring of 2002, although few people will have seen or remembered it. He’s joined by Emily Deschanel, whose sister Zooey is probably better known from her roles in movies like Will Ferrell’s Elf, and Lucy Lawless, star of the popular “Xena: Warrior Princess.”

Fortunately, Sony has been doing their normally amazing job selling the film with the trailer and the ultra-scary commercials being all over MTV. Obviously, this movie has been rush released to take advantage of the public’s desire for scary fare, but it might be hurt a bit by the number of strong thrillers already in theatres, like last week’s Hide and Seek with Robert De Niro and Dakota Fanning. Like Sony’s other horror hits, Boogeyman is PG-13, which means that teens will be able to go and see it without their parents, which is not the case with Hide and Seek. Still, it will probably see most of its business on Friday night, as Super Bowl Sunday will likely cut into its weekend business.

Related Comparisons
Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Sorority Boys	3/22/02	1,801	$4.13	$2,292	$10.20
The Grudge	10/22/04	3,245	$39.13	$12,058	$110.18
Darkness Falls	1/24/03	2,837	$12.02	$4,239	$32.54
Thirteen Ghosts	10/26/01	2,781	$15.17	$5,455	$41.87
Jeepers Creepers	8/31/01	2,944	$15.84	$5,380	$37.81
The House on Haunted Hill	10/29/99	2,710	$15.95	$5,886	$40.86
Get Carter	10/6/00	2,315	$6.64	$2,868	$14.97

Bottom Line: With one of the scariest trailers in a long time, what could be a generic horror thriller could actually bring in a decent-sized audience opening weekend even if it will be hurt by the Super Bowl on Sunday. If this is nearly as successful as White Noise or Hide and Seek, going to horror movies might end up becoming a weekly ritual. (Update: Unfortunately, the movie really really sucks--see the review above--and bad word will get around pretty quickly.)

Projection: $18 to 20 million opening weekend on its way to around $45 million.

---

THE WEDDING DATE (Universal Pictures)
Starring: Debra Messing, Dermot Mulroney, Amy Adams, Peter Egan, Holland Taylor
Directed by: Clare Kilner (How to Deal)
Genres: Romantic Comedy
Rated PG-13
Theatre Count: 1,695

Debra Messing plays Kat Ellis, a neurotic single woman, who hires a male escort (Dermot Mulroney) to play her boyfriend as she attends her sister’s wedding where she knows her ex-fiance will be the best man.

While I would love to immediately turn my nose up at this movie as the type of commercial chick flick pap that no intelligent woman would have any interest in seeing, I keep remembering two years ago this very weekend when the unlikely pairing of Kate Hudson and Matthew McConaughey turned How to Lose a Guy in Ten Days into a surprise hit. Yes, kids, Valentine’s Day is only two short weeks away and already the studios are rolling out their high concept romantic comedies trying to win over the couples wanting something to remind them that maybe their relationships aren’t so bad.

This romantic comedy with a rather familiar plot is a vehicle for “Will and Grace” star Debra Messing, attempting to make the transition from television to movies. It’s rather unironic that last year, she had a prominent role in Along Came Polly, Jennifer Aniston’s romantic comedy with Ben Stiller. Following that up with this—okay, she also appeared in the live action Garfield in between—makes it pretty obvious that Messing is being groomed by NBC/Universal to be the next Jennifer Aniston. The Wedding Date even has a very similar plot of a single woman hiring a boyfriend as Aniston’s early film Picture Perfect, which did okay in its moderate 1997 release. Although Office Space was a bit of a box office disappointment, it went onto become a cult classic, and Aniston went onto big success in movies like Polly and Carrey’s Bruce Almighty. Messing already has the hit sitcom under her belt, and her popularity among women and gay men alike makes this the perfect film to target her television audience.

Unfortunately, being big on television does not always mean success at the movies, as seen by Aniston’s fellow castmates on “Friends,” David Schwimmer, Matthew Perry and Lisa Kudrow, who have starred in some true stinkers like The Pallbearer, Almost Heroes and Marci X. Even Ray Romano, who has been the popular star of CBS’ hit “Everybody Loves Raymond,” wasn’t able to get people into Welcome to Mooseport, which opened last February. More recently, “Alias” star Jennifer Garner’s superhero spin-off Elektra also failed to attract her large television audience. Obviously, it’s all about the premise and The Wedding Date looks and sounds like far too many other romantic comedies.

Messing’s male co-star Dermot Mulroney actually had experience in one of those movies, having starred opposite Julia Roberts in the epitome of this type of romantic comedy, My Best Friend’s Wedding. Other than that, he’s mainly had small parts in indie films like Alexander Payne’s About Schmidt, Undertow and Lovely and Amazing, and he has his own Aniston connection, having appeared on a few episodes of “Friends.” Like Messing, Mulroney has a bit of status among women over 30 due to his charm and good looks.

At least romantic comedies with wedding themes have done moderately well in this time frame like Jennifer Lopez’ The Wedding Planner and Adam Sandler’s The Wedding Singer. Other films with a similar premise like Madonna’s The Next Big Thing and Ang Lee’s early Chinese film The Wedding Banquet didn’t, so obviously the stars involved is big factor in a movie’s success. Then again, one can’t forget that How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days surprised many by stealing the top spot with $24 million two years ago, eventually grossing over $100 million. Universal will hope that Messing’s film can pull a similar trick despite opening in half as many theatres, as they try to replicate the success they’ve had with romantic comedies like Bridget Jones’ Diary and Love Actually, both of which opened moderately and then expanded wider. This has the added advantage of opening at a time when there are few other films targeted towards older women, and they’ probably try to add more theatres next weekend to take advantage of Valentine’s Day on the 14^th.

At least Universal has had a bunch of recent hits to which they can attach the trailer like Meet the Fockers and In Good Company, plus parent company NBC can show commercials for the movie during their hit sitcoms, “Will and Grace,” for instance. These could help get the word out on the movie, although it might not do very much to convince people that the movie is worth paying money to see Messing playing a similar awkward romantic role as she does on television. If nothing else, director Clare Kilner will have to hope that this does better than her last studio feature, Mandy Moore’s How to Deal.

Related Comparisons
Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Along Came Polly	1/16/04	2,984		$32.45	$10,875	$87.86
How to Lose a Guy in 10 Days	2/7/03	2,923		$23.77	$8,134	$105.81
My Big Fat Greek Wedding	8/2/02	657	$37.17	$3.00	$4,569	$185.24
The Wedding Planner	1/26/01	2,785		$13.51	$4,851	$60.40
The Next Best Thing	3/3/00	2,007		$5.87	$2,925	$14.98
The Wedding Singer	2/13/98	2,821		$19.10	$6,771	$80.25
My Best Friend's Wedding	6/20/97	2,134		$21.68	$10,159	$126.81
Picture Perfect	8/1/97	1,707		$7.81	$4,575	$31.07
Welcome to Mooseport	2/20/04	2,867		$6.78	$2,363	$14.47
The Pallbearer	5/3/96	829		$2.32	$2,799	$5.66
Under the Tuscan Sun	9/26/03	1,226		$9.75	$7,953	$43.60

Bottom Line: While Debra Messing could very well break out of the jinx that has struck so many television stars when they made the jump to film, The Wedding Date looks like such a generic romantic comedy that it may not offer enough to reach its discerning target market—women. At least, with Valentine’s Day coming up, it should have some legs, although it faces a bigger obstacle in the high profile Hitch which opens next weekend.

Projection: $6 to 7 million opening weekend on its way to roughly $25 million

---

UNDER THE RADAR

Do you live in a major North American city? If so, there are a number of limited release movies worth checking out. And if you don't live in one of the cities in which these movies open, look for some of them to hit your area sometime in the next few months.

Opening in Limited Release:
ASSISTED LIVING (Economic Projections)
SWIMMING UPSTREAM (United Artists)

Elliot Greenebaum’s independent comedy Assisted Living is about the pot-smoking janitor at a nursing home who terrorizes the elderly residents with pranks such as pretending he’s their relatives calling from heaven. The Grand Jury winner at many smaller film festivals opens in New York on Wednesday, D.C on Friday and New Haven and Kentucky in the following weeks.

Swimming Upstream is the true story of swimming champion Tony Fingleton, who must overcome an alcoholic father (Geoffrey Rush) who sees him as lesser than his two brothers, in order to become an Olympic level swimmer. Like Shine in the water, this biopic directed by Russell Mulcahy (Highlander) opens in major cities.

Opening in New York and Los Angeles:
RORY O’SHEA WAS HERE (Focus Features)
THE NOMI SONG (Palm Pictures)

Damien O’Donnell’s feature debut Rory O’Shea Was Here stars James McAvoy (Wimbledon) as a young man suffering from a degenerative condition who arrives at an Irish home for the disabled, and convinces a shy boy suffering from cerebral palsy to break out on their own. After opening in New York and Los Angeles, this audience award winning comedy will expand wider in February and March. MY REVIEW

The story of ‘80s New Wave cult figure Klaus Nomi, a singer and performer who claimed to be an alien from outer space, is told in and a cult figure on the New Wave scene who made himself out to be an alien, is told in Andrew Horn’s documentary The Nomi Song. It explores the myths and notoriety Nomi attained before dying of AIDS.

Opening in New York:
DAYBREAK (Newmarket Films)
NOBODY KNOWS (IFC Films)

Daybreak from Swedish director Bjorn Runge’s is about sexual jealousy as seen in a 24-hour period involving a bitter ex-wife, a philandering surgeon and a bricklayer. It opens at New York’s Film Forum on Wednesday, and in Los Angeles on February 25.

Japan’s attempt at an Oscar nomination is Nobody Knows from director Hirokazu Kore-eda (After Life) about an irresponsible mother, who leaves her four children home alone, forcing them to fend for themselves. This tragic tale opens at New York’s Landmark Sunshine. MY REVIEW (Coming Soon!)

---

THIS TIME LAST YEAR

Three movies kicked off February last year with the highly anticipated sequel to the Ice Cube’s hit urban comedy Barbershop 2 leading the way with a $24 million opening, slightly more than the original, but opening in 1,000 more theatres. Coming in a close second place was Disney’s Miracle about the 1980 US Hockey Team, which had a strong opening just over $19 million, showing that inspirational sports movies were still going strong, especially when they appealed to America’s patriotism. Catch that Kid starring Panic Room’s Kristen Stewart tried to capture the family audience of Spy Kids, but its weekend gross of less than $6 million in more theatres than both other movies showed that the kid spy genre was already drying up. The only returning film in the top 10 with any significant drop-off was the hip hop film You Got Served; Ashton Kutcher’s The Butterfly Effect and the Oscar nominees all did decently, showing a significant increase in box office from the previous weekend.

---

Next week, Will Smith plays the date doctor named Hitch and Winnie the Pooh meets a Heffalump in Pooh’s Heffalump Movie from Disney.