Your Weekly Guide to New Movies for December 23, 2005
By Edward Douglas -

Greetings and welcome back to the last Weekend Warrior of the year! Tune in every Tuesday for the latest look at the upcoming weekend, and then check back on Friday for any last minute updates and reviews.

This is the last Weekend Warrior of the year, and it is indeed the biggest column I've ever written thanks to the ridiculous amount of new movies (six!) and then two more movies expanding nationwide. With that in mind, consider this a year-end blow-out to get rid of everything old before we kick off a brand-new Weekend Warrior in 2006. (Be scared.)

WEEKEND PROJECTIONS - final update 12.22.05

As the Christmas/Chanukah holiday weekend kicks off this Friday and many people have the next week off from work and school, every studio is frantically trying to get their last movies of the year into theatres to give audiences plenty of options. Kicking off the mad movie season early on Wednesday are two comedies starring popular actors, one a remake and the other a sequel to a successful remake. Expect Steve Martin's Cheaper by the Dozen 2, which reunites him with his Bringing Down the House director Adam Shankman and co-star Eugene Levy, to do the best of the new movies, and though it will make a valiant effort, it probably won't be able to dethrone the mighty king known as Kong. Meanwhile, comedy king Jim Carrey and Téa Leoni take on the George Segal and Jane Fonda roles in their remake of Fun with Dick and Jane from Sony Pictures which should do decent business but might suffer from the general remake backlash. Sony Pictures also expands the Rob Marshall-directed adaptation of the international bestseller Memoirs of a Geisha into over 1,400 theatres on Friday, which should allow it to place in the top half of the charts. Steven Spielberg's long-awaited thriller Munich will open in a moderate release of 500 to 600 theatres this weekend, and it should have enough interest to get into the Top 10. Jennifer Aniston and Kevin Costner team in the Rob Reiner directed romantic comedy Rumor Has It, which should make enough its opening day to get into the Top 10. The Weinstein Co. continues the Dimension Films X-Mas tradition of releasing horror films on Christmas Day, this time with the Aussie indie horror flick Wolf Creek, which falls somewhere between The Blair Witch Project and The Texas Chainsaw Massacre. With only one day of gross over the weekend, it might have a hard time getting into the Top 10. Likewise, the movie version of Mel Brooks' hit Broadway musical The Producers will expand into 975 theatres nationwide on Christmas Day, where it's likely to make just under $2 million, not enough to place in the Top 10. With Christmas Day falling on Sunday, expect the weekend to be a bit quieter with many people using Friday for traveling and Christmas itself for celebrating, but the stronger movies will likely do so much business in the next week that it will make up for a slower weekend.

TW	LW	Title	Weekend (in millions)	Change	# Of Theaters	Average	Week
1	1	King Kong	$27.5	-45%	3,576	$7,639	2
2	New	Cheaper by the Dozen	$22.3	N/A	3,174	$7,026	1
3	2	The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, The Witch and The Wardrobe	$19.0	-40%	3,853	$4,931	3
4	New	Fun with Dick and Jane	$16.4	N/A	3,056	$5,366	1
5	18	Memoirs of a Geisha	$7.9	566%	1,547	$5,107	3
6	3	The Family Stone	$7.3	-42%	2,469	$2,957	2
7	New	Munich	$6.4	N/A	532	$12,030	1
8	New	Rumor Has It…	$5.4	N/A	2,815	$1,918	1
9	8	Brokeback Mountain	$3.7	47%	217	$17,051	3
10	New	The Ringer	$3.5	N/A	1,828	$2,061	1
11	4	Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire	$3.2	-46%	2,521	$1,269	5
12	New	Wolf Creek	$2.9	N/A	1,749	$1,657	1
			Est. Weekend Total $125.50	Est. Avg. Drop-Off 67%		Est. Average PTA $5,743

(*Note that Rumor Has It... and Wolf Creek are opening on Christmas Day, a Sunday, so their weekend projections are just for that one day.)

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CHEAPER BY THE DOZEN 2 (20^th Century Fox)
Starring: Steve Martin, Bonnie Hunt, Hilary Duff, Tom Welling, Piper Perabo, Eugene Levy, Carmen Elektra
Director: Adam Shankman (The Pacifier, Bringing Down the House, The Wedding Planner)
Screenwriter: Sam Harper (Cheaper by the Dozen, Just Married)
Genres: Comedy, Family
Rated PG
Theatre Count: 3,174
Tagline: "Same Big Family…Even Bigger Adventure"

The abundant Baker family from Cheaper by the Dozen is back as parental units Tom and Kate (Steve Martin, Bonnie Hunt) decide to take the whole family on a summer vacation to Lake Winnetka, but it soon turns into a competition between their family and that of Tom's arch-rival Jimmy Murtaugh (Eugene Levy). Let the games begin.

Comedian Steve Martin's career was raised to a new plateau in 2003 when he was asked to host the Oscars that year, which he followed with two back-to-back hits, Bringing Down the House with Queen Latifah, and then later that year, the comedy remake Cheaper by the Dozen. (He also appeared in Looney Tunes: Back in Action, which we'll pretend never happened, okay?) Cheaper by the Dozen 2 reunites Martin with the director and a co-star from the former and most of the rest of the cast from the latter in the hopes that they can replicate the success of either. Martin's kept busy since making the original movie, starring in the remake of The Pink Panther with Cheaper director Shawn Levy, which has been repeatedly delayed, as has his own movie, Shopgirl with Claire Danes, which was finally released to mixed results earlier this fall. Martin is no stranger to the magic of holiday sequels having starred in the two Father of the Bride movies with Diane Keaton, the first one doing slightly better than the second.

In an attempt to recapture the magic of the original Cheaper by the Dozen, they've brought back most of the original cast, including actress Bonnie Hunt as Martin's wife, and all of the kids. The more recognizable of these would be Piper Perabo, best known from her role in Coyote Ugly and who last appeared in the summer horror bomb The Cave; "Smallville" star Tom Welling, who recently starred in the horror remake The Fog; and former Disney ingénue Hilary Duff, who was also riding high the year the original movie came out, but has not found as much success since then with back to back flops Raise Your Voice and The Perfect Man.

Martin and Levy
Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Cheaper By the Dozen	12/26/03	3,298	$8.18	$27.56	$8,356	$128.03
Bringing Down the House	3/7/03	2,801		$31.10	$11,104	$132.68
Bowfinger	8/13/99	2,706		$18.06	$6,674	$66.37
Father of the Bride 2	12/8/95	1,949		$11.13	$5,711	$76.59
Father of the Bride	12/20/91	1,561		$7.03	$4,504	$89.10
Parenthood	8/4/89	1,262		$10.51	$8,328	$95.57
The Man	9/9/05	2,040		$4.07	$1,993	$10.39
New York Minute	5/7/04	3,006		$5.96	$1,983	$14.02
American Wedding	8/1/03	3,172		$33.37	$10,520	$104.35
American Pie 2	8/10/01	3,063		$45.12	$14,729	$145.10
American Pie	7/9/99	2,507		$18.71	$7,463	$101.74

One thing noticeably missing from the sequel is actor Ashton Kutcher, who played a large part in the marketing of the first movie, even though he was uncredited in the movie. Instead, he's been replaced by Martin's Bringing Down the House co-star Eugene Levy, whose comedy career was elevated by his appearance in the American Pie movies, success which continued through his pairing with Martin in 2003, and then quickly quelched by appearing in dogs like the Olsen Sisters' New York Minute last year, and the buddy action comedy The Man with no less than Samuel L. Jackson. (That lucky dog gets Carmen Elektra as his wife in this one.)

Since making Bringing Down the House with Martin and Levy, director Adam Shankman had almost equal success with Disney's The Pacifier, a similar family comedy, which put Vin Diesel in charge of a bunch of kids. As a matter of fact, the success of Cheaper by the Dozen, along with Eddie Murphy's Daddy Day Care, has turned the "too many kids" comedy into its own genre with the likes of Ice Cube and Martin Lawrence getting in the game this year, as well.

You wouldn't think that a sequel to a remake would be a good idea, but it's happened so much in recent years, from Eddie Murphy's sequels to Dr. Dolittle and The Nutty Professor, to last year's hit Ocean's 12 that it's not nearly as strange as it used to be. Then again, sequels to family comedies rarely do as well as the originals, as has been seen with movies like Dr. Dolittle 2,102 Dalmations and Adams Family Values, all of which tried to recapture the magic of the original hit movies. Then again, this one goes for the easy laughs with a lot of physical humor and obviously, kids love that kind of thing, which is why these movies prove so successful. With little else for the young audience besides The Chronicles of Narnia, this sequel might be able to avoid the family sequel jinx.

The original Cheaper by the Dozen remake opened on Christmas Day, a Thursday, while the sequel will open on the Wednesday before Christmas, which this year falls on a Sunday. Since a lot of families will probably be traveling on Thursday or Friday, and Christmas Day proper is never the best day for a family movie, this will probably do more business after opening weekend. With that in mind, Cheaper by the Dozen 2 might have a smaller opening weekend than the former, but will make up for it in its first couple days and the week that follows where kids will be out of school.

Holiday + Family Comedy Sequels
Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Meet the Fockers	12/24/04	3,518	$24.40	$46.12	$13,110	$275.94
Meet the Parents	10/6/00	2,614		$28.62	$10,949	$166.23
Dr. Dolittle 2	6/22/01	3,049		$25.04	$8,212	$112.89
Doctor Dolittle	6/26/98	2,777		$29.01	$10,447	$144.14
Addams Family Values	11/19/93	2,577		$14.12	$5,479	$46.29
The Addams Family	11/22/91	2,411		$24.20	$10,037	$113.50
102 Dalmatians	11/22/00	2,704		$19.89	$7,355	$66.90
101 Dalmatians	11/29/96	2,794		$33.50	$11,990	$136.19
Honey, I Blew up the Kids	7/17/92	2,311		$11.08	$4,794	$58.69
Honey, I Shrunk the Kids	6/23/89	1,371		$14.26	$10,401	$130.72
The Pacifier	3/4/05	3,131		$30.55	$9,758	$112.47
Are We There Yet?	1/21/05	2,709		$18.58	$6,857	$82.30

Why I Should See It: You just didn't get enough big family fun with Yours, Mine and Ours and the first Cheaper by the Dozen.
Why Not: As is the case with most family sequels, there's a certain amount of been-there-done-that and it's doubtful that bringing Eugene Levy in will help much.

Bottom Line: The first Cheaper by the Dozen was a huge hit over Christmas two years ago, and this sequel is following a year after Meet the Fockers far surpassed the original movie. Still, one has to worry that maybe people are sick of this sort of thing thanks to the half dozen imitators from the last two years. Family sequels rarely do as well as the original movies, and the placement of Christmas Day on the Sunday might hurt Cheaper 2's opening weekend, even though it should be able to make up some of the difference in the week that follows since there's no school and few other family films.

Projection: $28 to 30 million in its first five days with about $21 to 23 million over the Christmas weekend on its way to around $100 million or slightly less.

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FUN WITH DICK AND JANE (Sony Pictures)
Starring: Jim Carrey, Téa Leoni, Richard Jenkins, Angie Harmon, Vincent Curatola, Jacob Davich, Alec Baldwin, Stacey Travis
Director: Dean Parisot (Galaxy Quest)
Screenwriter(s): Judd Apatow (The 40-Year-Old Virgin, "Freaks and Geeks", "Undeclared"), Nicholas Stoller ("Undeclared", "Strangers with Candy")
Genres: Comedy, Remake
Rated PG-13
Theatre Count: 3,056
Tagline: "See Dick Run"

Dick and Jane Harper (Jim Carrey, Téa Leoni) wind up on the unemployment line when the corporation Dick works for is caught in a corruption scandal, and after desperately and unsuccessfully trying to find jobs, the duo turns to crime in order to get them out of poverty.

What better way to end the "year of the remake" than with yet another one? Oh, I know! We could end the year with some original ideas!!! Now, that would be a concept, right? But no, Jim Carrey's first comedy in over two years brings him into territory that has been trod on before, that of the 1977 Jane Fonda-George Segal comedy Fun with Dick and Jane.

It's disappointing that this would be Carrey's follow-up to Michel Gondry's Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, written by Charlie Kaufman, which was one of the more original romantic comedies in recent memory. But this shouldn't be a surprise, since Carrey has been all over the map with his career in the last five years, making a lot of odd choices, some that have paid off, like the 2003 comedy Bruce Almighty, and others that haven't, like the Capra-esque drama The Majestic. During the last decade, Carrey has received a bunch of Golden Globes and MTV awards, and he's become the highest paid actor in Hollywood, even if not all of his movies have been fruitful. For the most part, Carrey's fans still prefer him in straight comedies, which is why Bruce Almighty became such a huge hit over Memorial Day weekend in 2003.

For his first and last movie of 2005, Carrey is teamed with Téa Leoni, who has appeared in a number of holiday films over the last few years. Her last one, James L. Brooks' Spanglish, teamed her with Adam Sandler, and it did very poorly, maybe since it wasn't very good. Years earlier, she starred opposite Nicholas Cage in the drama Family Man, which did better business over the holidays in 2000. In between, she starred in Woody Allen's Hollywood Ending, which didn't have one, and her husband David Duchovny's indie drama House of D. No matter how you cut it, Leoni's movie career just hasn't attained the kind of success that she found early in her career on the television show "The Naked Truth" despite being teamed with bigger stars.

Directing this modern-day remake is Dean Parisot, who helmed the sci-fi spoof Galaxy Quest with Tim Allen, a movie that earned $7 million in two days over Christmas weekend in 1999, and then went onto make over $70 million.

It's not bad enough that the movie already received some bad press earlier this year, much like Spanglish, because the ending of the movie had to be completely retooled, but unfortunately for Carrey, he has decided to do his first remake in a year where remakes have gotten so out-of-control. After so many bad remakes, there definitely seems to be a general backlash, since people are getting sick of seeing the same things over and over. You probably won't need any further proof than the relatively disappointing opening weekend Peter Jackson's remake of King Kong, which was expected to be the biggest movie of the year, but made less than Batman Begins and Spielberg's remake of War of the Worlds in its first five days. Not that Fun with Dick and Jane has much in common with any of those movies, but a remake might not be the best career move for Carrey at this point.

Although there are some funny bits in the commercials and trailer, the premise just doesn't seem like it's as strong as some of Carrey's past hits, and reviews will probably be dismal at best. Since this is opening on Wednesday, word-of-mouth will have to be very good to keep it alive in a busy holiday weekend where many people will be traveling or going to see other movies, so we probably can't expect this to be one of Carrey's biggest hits.

Relative Comparisons
Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Spanglish	12/17/04	2,438		$8.82	$3,617	$42.04
Hollywood Ending	5/3/02	765		$2.02	$2,638	$4.84
Family Man	12/22/00	2,388		$10.56	$4,422	$75.76
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind	3/19/04	1,353		$8.18	$6,042	$34.13
Bruce Almighty	5/23/03	3,483		$85.73	$24,614	$242.60
The Majestic	12/21/01	2,361		$4.90	$2,077	$27.80
Me, Myself and Irene	6/23/00	3,019		$24.21	$8,019	$90.47
Man on the Moon	12/24/99	2,079	$4.76	$7.52	$3,617	$34.58
Liar Liar	3/21/97	2,845		$31.42	$11,044	$181.41
The Cable Guy	6/14/96	2,657		$19.81	$7,456	$60.17
Galaxy Quest	12/25/99	2,412		$7.01	$2,906	$70.26

Why I Should See It: Pairing Téa Leoni with a hot comic star like Jim Carrey should be worth a couple of laughs.
Why Not: Didn't we say that same thing about Spanglish last year? Yeah, I thought so.

Bottom Line: Although I'm sure Jim Carrey's many fans have been looking forward to his first comedy since 2003's Bruce Almighty, the fact that this is a remake, and not a very good looking one at that might put some of them off and make this a second or third choice over the pre-holiday weekend. Expect it to do most of its business in the first five days and not so much as people go to see other movies.

Projection: $22 to 24 million in its first five days with about $15 to 17 million over the weekend and less than $50 million total.

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MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA (Sony Pictures)
Starring: Zhang Ziyi, Ken Watanabe, Michelle Yeoh, Gong Li, Kaori Momoi, Tsai Chin, Cary-Hiroyuki Tagawa, Suzuka Ohgo
Director: Rob Marshall (Chicago)
Screenwriter(s): Robin Swicord (Practical Magic, Little Women), Doug Wright
Genres: Drama, Romance
Rated PG-13
Theatre Count (estimated): 1,400+
MY REVIEW

Sold to a geisha house at a young age by her parents, Sayuri Nitta (Ziyi Zhang) spends her childhood as a geisha's assistant, but when she receives kindness from the stranger named The Chairman (Ken Watanabe), she swears to become the greatest geisha in Japan just for him.

Published in 1997, Arthur Golden's novel Memoirs of a Geisha became an international bestseller thanks to its look at the lives of geishas in Japan, something Golden spent years researching. It was optioned for a movie that was originally going to be directed by Steven Spielberg and written by Akiva Goldsman (A Beautiful Mind), but then Spielberg got busy with other things, and the job went to Rob Marshall, who received an Oscar nomination for his first feature film, the movie based on the musical Chicago. From the beginning, there was controversy surrounding this story, first when Golden was sued for breaching the anonymity of his collaborator and then, Japanese got upset by the fact that Rob Marshall hired mostly Chinese actresses to play the lead roles, rather than Japanese actresses.

Then again, Zhang Ziyi, the Chinese actress cast for the film's lead had found a great deal of success in the States despite only being in one other English language film, the hit sequel Rush Hour 2 with Jackie Chan and Chris Tucker. Most of the world first learned about Zhang Ziyi when she played a key role in Ang Lee's 2000 martial arts film Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon, and after a few years off to finish school, she played a similar role in Zhang Yimou's martial arts film Hero. The latter was finally released in the United States last year, where it became the second highest grossing Chinese language movie in America, followed later that year by a starring role in his House of Flying Daggers, which didn't do nearly as much business. Earlier this year, Zhang had a small part in Wong Kar-Wai's romantic sci-fi drama 2046, but that only did a little bit of business in the art houses.

In Memoirs, Zhang is reunited with her Crouching Tiger sparring partner Michelle Yeoh, this time playing the matronly Mameah. Yeoh's crossover to Hollywood began in 1997, when she appeared in the James Bond movie Tomorrow Never Dies, but Yeoh is still more famous in her native country, where she appeared in a number of movies with Jackie Chan and in Johnny To's martial arts classic The Heroic Trio, kinda like China's answer to Charlie's Angels. Playing the role of Hatsumomo, Sayuri's arch-rival is Gong Li, an actress who has done as much or more for Chinese cinema in American than Zhang, having appeared in classics like Farewell My Concubine, Raise the Red Lantern and Shanghai Triad, the latter two also with Zhang Yimou.

Memoirs of a Geisha opened in eight theatres on December 9, where it earned $682 thousand, an impressive average of $85 thousand per, essentially the same as Moulin Rouge!, which only opened in two theatres. Last weekend, it expanded into over 50 theatres and earned another $1.2 million, getting into the Top 10. Obviously, there is interest in the movie, although who knows if that will continue into its nationwide release.

The main audience for the movie will be women who read the book, and the movie should have a similar amount of intrigue for those interested in the Far East as Tom Cruise's The Last Samurai. The movie should also be a big draw for Asian audiences, although many of them will be situated in the larger cities, and will probably have seen the movie in its first two weeks. Except for those in the country who read and loved the book, the general discrimination against Asians in this country might keep the movie from making a big mark at the box office, especially without the Oscar buzz that many expected it to have. So far, reviews have been pretty terrible, just 20% on Rotten Tomatoes, which can never help with a movie like this, which depends on older audiences, who do pay attention to reviews. So far, only Zhang has received any awards recognition for her performance as Sayuri, a Golden Globes nomination, and unless she gets into the Oscar race, it's doubtful that the movie will have much of a shelf-life beyond the holidays.

Related Comparisons
Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
2046	8/5/05	4		$0.11	$28,269	$1.44
House of Flying Daggers	12/3/04	1,189	$5.23	$1.74	$1,461	$11.04
Hero	8/27/04	2,031		$18.00	$8,865	$53.58
Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon	1/12/01	693	$19.89	$7.73	$11,154	$128.07
Tomorrow Never Dies	12/19/97	2,807		$25.14	$8,956	$125.28
Farewell My Concubine	9/13/93	5		$0.07	$23,136	$5.16
Raise the Red Lantern	3/13/92	1		$0.02	$22,554	$2.60
Cold Mountain	12/26/03	2,163	$4.51	$14.57	$6,738	$78.38
The Last Samurai	12/5/03	2,908		$24.27	$8,346	$107.46

Why I Should See It: Three generations of China's finest actresses in a romantic drama that should appeal to most women.
Why Not: The critics found the movie beautiful but boring, and they're probably more familiar with the work of the Chinese actresses than anyone else in mainstream America.

Bottom Line: This is obviously an important movie for Sony, because a lot is riding on it finding an audience over the holidays, especially since it's doubtful that it will be getting many, if any, of the important Oscars that might get people to see this come January. Expect it to find a decent audience its first day in wide release, but then to lose some of its audience once Rumor Has It... opens on Sunday.

Projection: $7 to 9 million over Christmas weekend on its way to under $35 million total.

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MUNICH (Universal Pictures
Starring: Eric Bana, Daniel Craig, Geoffrey Rush, Mathieu Kassovitz, Hanns Zischler, Ciaran Hinds, Brian Goodman
Director: Steven Spielberg (Way too many movies to list)
Screenwriter(s): Tony Kushner ("Angels in America"), Eric Roth (Forest Gump, The Insider, Ali)
Genres: Drama, Historic, Thriller
Rated R
Theatre Count: 525
MY REVIEW

After the kidnapping and murder of 11 Israeli athletes during the 1972 Munich Olympics, a former Mossad agent named Avner (Eric Bana) is commissioned to form a team of assassins to take out those responsible, as well as other enemies of Israel.

Less than six months after his remake of War of the Worlds took the summer box office by storm, director Steven Spielberg is back with another movie, one that he spent the last six months laboring over, trying to get it done in time for the holiday Oscar season. The rush to get the film made may be due to the timeliness and importance of its subject matter, which was loosely based on the novel "Vengeance" by George Jonas, also the basis for the 1986 TV movie "Sword of Gideon." Although the events in the movie all take place over thirty years ago, they have a certain resonance with what is going on in the world, especially in the Mideast, right now.

Either way, Spielberg decided to jump right into it, making this the second year of the 21^st Century where he has released two movies, the last time being 2002, when he directed both the Philip K. Dick sci-fi film Minority Report with Tom Cruise and Catch Me If You Can with Tom Hanks and Leo DiCaprio. In between those busy years, he directed the romantic comedy The Terminal, again starring Tom Hanks, this time with Catherine Zeta Jones, which wasn't received as well as his previous films. Still, it wasn't until Spielberg reteamed with Tom Cruise this year that he had the type of hit for which he's known, since their remake of War of the Worlds made the kind of money of Spielberg's earlier hits like Jurassic Park and The Lost World. This follows tradition in that he followed both those big summer films with more serious fare, which may be why Munich came about at the time it did. It probably didn't hurt that the screenplay was written by playwright Tony Kushner and Eric Roth, who won an Academy Award for his screenplay for Forrest Gump.

Munich is another big movie for Eric Bana, who has only appeared in three movies since his debut in the Australian indie Chopper, but they've been doozies, from Ridley Scott's Black Hawk Down to Ang Lee's adaptation of the Marvel Comics' The Hulk to starring with Brad Pitt in Wolfgang Peterson's summer epic Troy. Bana also provided his voice for Pixar's biggest animated film to date, Finding Nemo. Playing Avner finally gives Bana a chance to play the type of dramatic role that might win him awards recognition, although he's already been snubbed by the Hollywood Foreign Press, and it's up to the Hollywood acting community to get him into the Oscars.

The second key role in the film is that of Avner's handler Ephraim, played by another Australian actor, Geoffrey Rush. Of course, Rush is the actor who broke out with his 1996 Oscar win for Shine, but more people will know him for his role as the pirate captain Barbosa in 2003's Pirates of the Caribbean or for his Emmy and Golden Globe winning role as Peter Sellers in the HBO movie "The Life and Death of Peter Sellers."

Bana's team of assassins are played by a few lesser known actors with the best known being British actor Daniel Craig, who has been in a number of British indies in the last few years including last year's crime drama Layer Cake. He'll be better known for being the guy who is going to play the next James Bond in next year's Casino Royale. Another Brit, Irish character actor Ciaran Hinds plays another one of Avner's assassins, after having smaller roles in many movies from Road to Perdition to last year's Phantom of the Opera, and the quintet is completed by German actor Hanns Zischler and France's Mathieu Kassovitz. For the most part, the rest of the cast is made up of talented international actors, many of whom will be unfamiliar to Spielberg's American fans.

Surprisingly, Spielberg has declined to do much press for the film, and it's not getting the type of marketing push that you might expect for such an important and controversial film. As a matter of fact, there almost wasn't even a trailer, but then Universal wisely attached it to Jarhead, another politically charged film. And it's really the controversy surrounding the film that is going to help Munich do well without the marketing push. Of course, Spielberg is beloved my movie lovers, but it's doubtful that this movie will appeal to the younger audience who dug movies like Minority Report or War of the Worlds. It's really going to go more for the older intellectual audience who will want to debate the topics of the movie.

Munich is the first Spielberg film to get a limited release since 1997's Amistad, and that might be more because it would be hard to get a wide release with so many other movies being released around the same time. Then again, business will be focused on those larger cities where Munich is opening, so expect a decent size audience over the next two weekends. Unlike Amistad and Schindler's List, his latest drama hasn't been playing in select cities for weeks before expanding into over 500 theatres, so expect there to be more immediate demand.

Not to be one of those self-deprecating Jews, but it's obvious that the controversy surrounding the movie's subject matter will make its target audience the same Jewish audience that that went to see Schindler's List. Because of this, the movie won't be as affected by the Christmas holiday on Sunday. Expect a huge rush to see this opening week thanks to the mostly positive reviews and the controversy surrounding the film, and that business should stay strong for when the movie expands nationwide on January 6.

Related Comparisons
Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
War of the Worlds	6/29/05	3,908	$35.68	$64.88	$16,602	$234.27
Minority Report	6/21/02	3,001		$35.68	$11,889	$132.01
Saving Private Ryan	7/24/98	2,463		$30.58	$12,416	$216.12
Amistad	12/26/97	712	$11.33	$5.18	$7,275	$44.18
Schindler's List	2/4/94	764	$24.67	$4.64	$6,073	$96.06
Troy	5/14/04	3,411		$46.87	$13,739	$133.23
The Hulk	6/20/03	3,660		$62.13	$16,975	$132.12
Black Hawk Down	1/18/02	3,101	$1.85	$33.63	$10,844	$108.58

Why I Should See It: It could be one of Spielberg's strongest pieces of filmmaking since Schindler's List.
Why Not: It's way too long and some people may find it too preachy or singular in its vision. (Hence the controversy.)

Bottom Line: A serious drama-thriller about a controversial subject may be just what the doctor ordered for Steven Spielberg to start being taken seriously again amongst critics and older moviegoers. The buzz surrounding Munich has been swarming for months before anyone even saw it, and now that Universal has been screening it for critics, it's already being put on many Top 10 lists. Even without the normal marketing techniques, there should be enough interest and attention to get a lot of people into theatres to see this opening weekend and over the next few weeks leading up to the Oscars.

Projection: $6 to 7 million over Christmas weekend on its way to a total of $50 million or more.

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THE PRODUCERS (Sony Pictures)
Starring: Nathan Lane, Matthew Broderick, Uma Thurman, Will Ferrell, Gary Beach, Roger Bart
Director: Susan Stroman (debut)
Screenwriter(s): Mel Brooks (Blazing Saddles, Young Frankenstein, Spaceballs, "Get Smart"), Thomas Meehan (Space Balls, Annie, "Hairspray" musical)?
Genres: Comedy, Musical
Rated PG-13
Theatre Count: 975
MY REVIEW

Accountant Leo Bloom (Matthew Broderick) wants to be a Broadway producer, so he teams up with Broadway vet Max Bialystock (Nathan Lane) with a plot to create the biggest flop ever seen on Broadway. And so, "Springtime for Hitler" is born, and the comedy begins.

In 1968, Mel Brooks was a television comedy writer who had mostly written for Sid Caesar and the television show "Get Smart." His debut feature film as a director, The Producers, was a hilarious, irreverent comedy starring Zero Mostel and Gene Wilder, the latter who would appear in many of Brooks' future films. The movie won Brooks an Oscar for his screenplay and got Wilder a supporting actor Oscar, but it wasn't until over thirty years later where the movie would make an even bigger splash, when Brooks adapted it as a Broadway musical. In 2001, it literally swept the Tony Awards, winning twelve for its cast, the score, the book, the direction and just about everything else. After years of sell-out shows, Brooks decided to return it to its original format, making a movie that could recapture the magic of the stage musical, bringing back most of the original cast as well as director/choreographer Susan Stroman.

The stars of the show, Nathan Lane and Matthew Broderick, were already quite popular on Broadway when Brooks had the genius of bringing them together in the roles made famous by Mostel and Wilder. In 2001, Lane had been working on Broadway for a number of years after finding success in a couple mouse-related family films like Mouse Hunt and Stuart Little, for which he voiced the cat "Snowbell." Still, that wouldn't be as big for the actor as his decision to provide the voice for the popular Timon in Disney's mega blockbuster animated hit The Lion King, followed by a Golden Globe-nominated role in The Birdcage, another movie based on a stageplay, which teamed Lane with Robin Williams. Then again, Lane was coming off one of his biggest bombs, the Bette Midler vehicle Isn't She Great? when he was hired for "The Producers" on Broadway.

His partner, Matthew Broderick, was coming of his own family hit Inspector Gadget, when called upon to play Leo Bloom, but he'll probably always be remembered for playing the title role in the teen comedy Ferris Bueller's Day Off. Even though he had moved onto other things, such as starring in Roland Emmerich's summer blockbuster Godzilla and Alexander Payne's sophomore effort Election, opposite no less than Reese Witherspoon, Broderick became a bit of a staple on Broadway, appearing in the plays and subsequent movies of Neil Simon, as well as winning a Tony for "How to Succeed in Business." Last year, Broderick began his return to film by starring in the comedy remake of The Stepford Wives opposite Nicole Kidman, who was originally slated to play the role of Ula in this movie musical.

Lane and Broderick
Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Isn't She Great?	1/28/00	750		$1.37	$1,827	$2.95
The Birdcage	3/8/96	1,950		$18.28	$9,374	$124.06
The Lion King	6/24/94	2,552	$3.76	$40.89	$16,023	$312.78
Mouse Hunt	12/19/97	2,674		$6.06	$2,266	$61.84
The Stepford Wives	6/11/04	3,057		$21.41	$7,003	$59.48
Inspector Gagdet	7/23/99	2,814		$21.89	$7,779	$97.36
Election	5/7/99	827	$0.53	$3.16	$3,821	$14.88
Godzilla	5/22/98	3,310	$18.53	$44.74	$13,517	$136.31

The two Hollywood ringers brought into try to bring people into theatres are Will Ferrell and Uma Thurman, both of whom have had a substantial amount of movies in the last few years. Uma is still riding high off of her two hit movies with director Quentin Tarantino, Kill Bill Vols. 1 and 2, who she reunited with after her breakout role in Pulp Fiction. This year, she reteamed with John Travolta for the comedy sequel Be Cool, based on Elmore Leonard's novel, and recently appeared with Meryl Streep in the romantic comedy Prime. For The Producers, she sings, she dances and she acts like the Swedish sex pot that we all knew she had in her.

Ferrell's role as the neo-Nazi Franz Liebkind isn't too far removed from other over-the-top roles like Ron Burgundy in Anchorman or Buddy the Elf from his biggest hit Elf, but he can definitely use a solid hit, since his previous two movies this year, Kicking & Screaming and Bewitched, another remake with Nicole Kidman, didn't do as well as those hits. Both of those movies made $20 million opening weekend and then quickly trailed off due to stronger movies entering the market. Still, Ferrell does have a fanbase of younger people that might give them a reason to check out this movie musical, even if they've never heard of Mel Brooks or the others. Also returning from the original stage production are Gary Beach and Roger Bart, who steal the movie as cross-dressing director Roger DuBris and his man Friday Carmen Ghia.

It's rather ironic that The Producers will be expanding wide the same weekend as Memoirs of a Geisha, directed by Rob Marshall, who like Stroman, made his move to the movies with Chicago, a musical he directed on Broadway. (Actually, he directed the television moved based on the musical "Annie" first.)

Last weekend, The Producers opened in six locations in six cities, but it wasn't able to get the same push that Universal was giving their much more expensive remake of the monster movie King Kong, so it's opening weekend average of less than $30,000 isn't that impressive. By comparison, Chicago averaged that much in ten times more theatres over the busy Christmas weekend in 2000 before expanding gradually over awards season, ultimately ending up with $175 million.

The Producers expands into over 900 theatres this weekend, and it will attempt to expand into even more theatres on January 13, probably in hopes that it might win some Golden Globes or get a few Oscar nominations, although by then, it might have run its course in the areas where it will likely do the most business.

The reviews have not been that positive and there may already be a full-scale backlash to the Lane and Broderick pairing, because critics have not dug their turn as Felix and Oscar on the Broadway revival of Neil Simon's "The Odd Couple" which has sold out its entire Broadway run until sometime next year.

Related Comparisons
Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Be Cool	3/4/05	3,216		$23.45	$7,292	$55.81
Kill Bill Vol. 2	4/16/04	2,971		$25.10	$8,450	$66.21
Kill Bill Vol. 1	10/10/03	3,102		$22.09	$7,121	$69.82
Bewitched	6/24/05	3,174		$20.13	$6,343	$62.25
Kicking & Screaming	5/13/05	3,455		$20.16	$5,835	$51.00
Anchorman	7/9/04	3,091		$28.42	$9,193	$84.14
Elf	11/7/03	3,337		$31.11	$9,324	$172.70
Andrew Lloyd Webber's The Phantom of the Opera	12/24/04	622	$2.32	$4.00	$6,434	$49.44
Chicago	2/7/03	1,841	$53.02	$10.79	$5,859	$170.68
Evita	1/10/97	704	$2.85	$8.38	$11,903	$50.02

Why I Should See It: If you missed the musical on Broadway, this is the next best thing to being there.
Why Not: Because it's almost exactly like the musical, so if you've seen it, there's really nothing new except Will Ferrell and Uma Thurman.

Bottom Line: The Producers didn't do so well in its opening weekend in select theatres, and it's not going to have much room to pick up the slack with so many other movies in theatres this weekend, although there certainly should be some people in other areas who never had a chance to see Broderick and Lane on Broadway who'll want to see this, maybe not opening day, but in the weeks to come. And of course, Will Ferrell's fans will probably go see this eventually, as well.

Projection: Between $1 and 2 million on Christmas Day on its way to roughly $25 million overall, more if it's able to get into the Oscar race.

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THE RINGER (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
Starring: Johnny Knoxville, Brian Cox, Katherine Heigl, Zen Gesner, John Taylor, Jed Rees
Director: Barry W. Blaustein (Beyond the Mat, writer of The Nutty Professor, Boomerang and other Eddie Murphy films)
Screenwriter: Ricky Blitt (writer from the FOX cartoon "Family Guy")
Genres: Comedy
Rated PG-13
Theatre Count (estimated): 1,600
Tagline: "Special has been redefined."

Johnny Knoxville plays Steve Barker, a white collar guy who pretends to be mentally challenged in order to get into the Special Olympics, although not even the other contestants are dumb enough to believe that Johnny Knoxville is retarded. Instead, they work with him to beat the cocky athlete who is the reigning champion at the Olympics.

And honestly, if you really need to know more than that, I almost feel bad for you. Almost. It might not be surprising that this ill-conceived comedy is being executive-produced by the Farrelly Brothers, who have built their careers on movies that make fun of taboos like fat people, those with mental deficiencies like the mentally challenged. Then again, they didn't exactly jump forward to direct this one, instead giving it to Barry Blaustein, who wrote a lot of movies for Eddie Murphy and directed the wrestling documentary Beyond the Mat in 1999.

The movie is another attempted vehicle for Johnny Knoxville, who just hasn't had very much luck in picking projects since leaving his MTV hit show "Jackass." Of course, the movie based on the show, called Jackass: The Movie, did very well among Knoxville's core audience, and teaming him with Seann William Scott in this past summer's remake of the television show The Dukes of Hazzard proved successful, but Knoxville's starring vehicles have tanked, whether it be John Waters' NC-17 sex romp A Dirty Shame or the recent coming of age comedy Daltry Calhoun. (I'm guessing that this is the first time you've heard of the latter.) It's probably a bit of a disappointment for the actor who made his film debut in the summer blockbuster Men In Black II, and it may be why Knoxville is returning to what he does best by making Jackass 2.

Movies about mentally challenged people and those with disabilities are nothing new, although this is a far cry from something like Rain Man or Radio to what the Farrellys have been able to pull it off. 2001 was a great year for bad movies like this one with the Farrelly produced bomb Say It Isn't So followed later that year by Bubble Boy, starring none other than Jake Gyllenhaal as the boy…in a bubble. Neither of them made more than $6 million despite wide releases, and it doesn't seem like The Ringer might do much better.

Fox Searchlight has been sitting on this movie for at least a year, but maybe it's not surprising, since how could anyone honestly think that a movie starring Johnny Knoxville getting into the Special Olympics could possibly be any good? Heck, they may not even show this one to critics in fear of losing even the lowest common denominator that might go see this. (They have nothing to fear, since those who might want to see this movie probably won't be able to read.) Of course, Knoxville is the big selling point, and he's been making appearances on "Saturday Night Live" and on Comedy Central to push the movie, but with little backing from the studio, few people will know about the movie.That might just be fine since this hasn't been such a good year for the studio that brought us Sideways and Garden State, and maybe they just want to get rid of this before getting a fresh start in 2006.

Related Comparisons
Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
The Dukes of Hazzard	8/5/05	3,785		$30.68	$8,104	$80.27
Jackass: The Movie	10/25/02	2,509		$22.76	$9,072	$64.27
Men in Black II	7/5/02	3,557	$35.09	$52.15	$14,661	$192.40
Bubble Boy	8/24/01	1,605		$2.04	$1,270	$4.98
Say it Isn't So	3/23/01	1,974		$2.86	$1,450	$5.52
Beyond the Mat	3/17/00	298	$0.02	$0.97	$3,255	$2.05
Stuck on You	12/12/03	3,003		$9.41	$3,134	$33.45
Me, Myself and Irene	6/23/00	3,019		$24.21	$8,019	$90.47
There's Something About Mary	7/17/98	2,186	$4.06	$13.74	$6,285	$176.48

Why I Should See It: Um….er…..uh…. can I get back to you on that?
Why Not: I think this column is long enough already without having to list the 567 reasons why this movie shouldn't be seen, don't you?

Bottom Line: Yeah, a comedy about a guy who pretends to be mentally challenged is not exactly something to keep your career afloat, although obviously, plenty of actors have managed to survive their bad decisions. Just ask Lisa Kudrow or Cuba Gooding or Nia Vardalos… if you can find them. Fortunately, few people will even know this movie exists and even fewer that know about it will want to see it, so it will be in and out of theatres before they announce a sequel to King Kong.

Projection: While this may be able to make $3 to 4 million over the Christmas weekend, it will be lucky if it comes anywhere close to $8 million total.

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RUMOR HAS IT… (Warner Bros. Pictures)
Starring: Jennifer Aniston, Kevin Costner, Shirley MacLaine, Mark Ruffalo, Richard Jenkins, Mena Suvari
Director: Rob Reiner (The Princess Bride, When Harry met Sally…, This is Spinal Tap, Misery, A Few Good Men, Alex and Emma, Ghosts of Mississippi)
Screenwriter: Ted Griffin (Ocean's Eleven, Matchstick Men)
Genres: Comedy, Romance
Rated PG-13
Theatre Count: 2,815
Tagline: "Based on a true rumor."

Jennifer Aniston plays Sarah Huttinger, a journalist about to get married to her boyfriend (Mark Ruffalo) when she's called back to Pasadena for her sister's wedding. There, she meets millionaire playboy Beau Burroughs (Kevin Costner) who had relations with both her mother and grandmother, an incident that might have influenced the ‘60s movie "The Graduate."

Who would have thought that a little movie in 1967 called "The Graduate" would have such a lasting impact on the world, not only in the careers of Dustin Hoffman and director Mike Nichols and older moviegoers, but also in filmmakers and screenwriters? And who would have thought that almost 4 decades later, it would be the basis for the latest romantic comedy vehicle for "Friends" star Jennifer Aniston? (Okay, put your hand down, Kreskin. That was rhetorical.)

Rumor Has It… returns Aniston to the world of romantic comedies after a bit of a sidestep with the thriller Derailed with Clive Owen last month. Without a question, Aniston is the one star from the NBC sitcom "Friends" who's done the most with her success and popularity, making a smoother transition to the movies than most other TV stars. All of the tabloid stuff about her and former hubby Brad Pitt aside, Aniston's post "Friends" career has been on a roll, first with the indie comedy The Good Girl, followed by playing the romantic interest of Jim Carrey in his comedy blockbuster Bruce Almighty. Last year, she teamed with Ben Stiller to kick off his banner year with his first hit Along Came Polly, which sets the groundwork for a movie like this one.

It's amusing to see a movie starring Kevin Costner where he's given second billing, especially since he's become to top billing after starring in dozens of movies in the ‘80s and ‘90s, which helped him find a sizable audience of older women. These included romantic dramas including Message in a Bottle and The Bodyguard, and the romantic sports comedy Bull Durham. Earlier this year, Costner co-starred in the romantic comedy The Upside of Anger opposite Joan Allen, written and directed by Michael Binder (HBO's "The Mind of the Married Man"), and that did okay business, but nothing spectacular. Ah, that's must be why Jennifer Aniston gets the bigger picture on the poster.

Aniston and Costner
Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Derailed	11/11/05	2,443		$12.21	$4,999	$34.72
Along Came Polly	1/16/04	2,984		$27.21	$9,290	$87.86
Bruce Almighty	5/23/03	3,483		$85.73	$24,614	$242.60
The Good Girl	8/30/02	667	$3.74	$3.80	$5,704	$13.89
The Upside of Anger	3/11/05	1,111	$4.58	$4.02	$3,623	$18.76
Open Range	8/15/03	2,075		$14.05	$6,771	$58.33
Message In A Bottle	2/12/99	2,538		$16.71	$6,584	$52.80
Tin Cup	8/16/96	2,012		$10.13	$5,035	$53.85
The Bodyguard	11/27/92	1,717		$16.61	$9,674	$121.95

Support for the film comes from Mark Ruffalo, who has starred in his share of romantic comedies from 13 Going on 30 opposite Jennifer Garner to Just Like Heaven with Reese Witherspoon. He probably has more of a pull among younger women at this point, but for the over-40 crowd. There's Shirley MacLaine, who recently wowed critics in Curtis Hanson's adaptation of Jennifer Weiner's novel In Her Shoes with Cameron Diaz. MacLaine got a Golden Globe nomination for the role and might even get an Oscar nomination for it.

This great ensemble cast is pulled together by director Rob Reiner, who has made so many different types of movies, but will forever be remembered for directing the romantic comedy classic, When Harry Met Sally… (Note that his latest movie also ends in ellipses.) He didn't have very much luck with his last movie, Alex and Emma, starring Kate Hudson and Luke Wilson, but Rumor Has It... has a much stronger cast and premise from top to bottom.

The holidays are a great time for romantic comedies, and in the last few years, a number of them have done well, not so much opening weekend, but over the long haul. In 2002, Jennifer Lopez had a hit with Maid in Manhattan and then a week later Sandra Bullock and Hugh Grant starred in Two Weeks Notice, both of them doing less than $20 million opening weekend but then over $85 million over the holidays. This year has already seen great success for women-driven romantic comedies like The Wedding Date with Debra Messing and Monster-in-Law, again with J-Lo, and the time seems right for another big hit. The toughest competition for the film might come from The Family Stone and Memoirs of a Geisha, although both will have been playing for a few weeks by the time this opens.

Warner Bros. has been doing a lot to push the movie in the weeks before it opens with support coming from odd places like AMC (American Movie Channel) that subtly tied a half-hour special on "The Graduate" with an interview special with Aniston. Of course, Aniston has been doing the talk show rounds promoting the movie and considering her popularity, especially since the end of "Friends", this will probably end up being a first choice for many on Christmas Day after opening presents. Still, that doesn't account for much of its opening weekend, and it will be more about the upcoming week and next weekend when more people will be around to see the movie.

Related Comparisons
Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Alex and Emma	6/20/03	2,310		$6.11	$2,645	$14.21
When Harry Met Sally	7/21/89	775	$3.28	$8.85	$11,419	$92.25
In Her Shoes	10/7/05	2,808		$10.02	$3,568	$32.71
Bewitched	6/24/05	3,174		$20.13	$6,343	$62.25
Postcards From the Edge	9/14/90	1,013	$0.11	$7.87	$7,769	$38.27
Steel Magnolias	11/17/89	480		$5.43	$11,313	$81.00
Just Like Heaven	9/16/05	3,508		$16.41	$4,678	$48.29
13 Going on 30	4/23/04	3,438		$21.05	$6,124	$56.04
Something's Gotta Give	12/12/03	2,677		$16.06	$6,001	$111.88
Two Weeks Notice	12/20/02	2,755		$14.40	$5,227	$88.82
Maid in Manhattan	12/13/02	2,838		$18.71	$6,593	$91.08

Why I Should See It: You can't get a much more perfect cast or director for this type of "chick flick" romantic comedy, and it actually has an interesting premise.
Why Not: No matter how you slice it, it's still another Jennifer Aniston romantic comedy.

Bottom Line: Rob Reiner's making another go at the romantic comedy after the failed Alex and Emma, and this time he has a strong cast of four actors who have done decently in the genre, but most notably, he has Jennifer Aniston and Kevin Costner, two superstars who should cross the generational gap to bring in a lot of women over 20, maybe not so much on Christmas Day, but definitely in the week between holidays.

Projection: $5 to 6 million on Christmas Day on its way to around $50 million total.

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WOLF CREEK (The Weinstein Co.)
Starring: John Jarratt, Cassandra Magrath, Andy McPhee, Kestie Morassi, Guy Peterson, Nathan Phillips, Gordon Poole, Jenny Starwall, Aaron Sterns
Director/Screenwriter: Greg McLean (debut)
Genres: Horror, Suspense, Thriller
Rated R
Theatre Count: 1,749
Tagline: "How can you be found when no one knows you're missing?"
MY REVIEW

While vacationing in the Australian Outback, three friends find themselves in a bind when their car won't start, leaving them stuck in the middle of nowhere. With help from a passing Samaritan (John Jarratt), they think they'll be getting out of their predicament, only to find themselves caught in an even worse nightmare.

For whatever reason, the Sundance Film Festival didn't have as many buzz-worthy hits as last year, although one movie that had people talking was the directorial debut of Melbourne resident Greg McLean, which put a different twist on the realistic horror films that have generated buzz at past festivals, most notably The Blair Witch Project and Open Water. The horror and suspense in McLean's debut film generated enough buzz at this year's festival that Harvey and Bob Weinstein picked it up as the first genre film for their new company, and they've decided to release it on Christmas Day, something that has proven successful for Bob's former company Dimension Films when they released the first two parts of Wes Craven's Scream trilogy on that date.

McLean's film takes an environment that has been explored most memorably in the Crocodile Dundee movies and turns it into a place where people might disappear without a trace. Supposedly based on a true story, the film's premise revolves around a horrifying nightmare experienced by three young people, not too unlike the fictitious incidents that formed the basis of The Blair Witch Project. So Wolf Creek falls somewhere between the psychological fear of the latter with the very real horror of something like The Texas Chainsaw Massacre.

There isn't much star power to speak of for the movie, since most of the cast has only appeared in Australian movies or television. The one actor who probably will be most remembered if the movie does well is John Jarratt, who plays Mick, the "Samaritan" who picks up the trio of vacationing teens, a role that could turn him into the next Robert Englund. He's already signed on to appear in the Robert Rodriguez-Quentin Tarantino horror anthology Grindhouse and to appear in McLean's next film Rogue, which is also set on the Australian Outback.

In the last few years, slasher films have started to find a stronger audience, culminating in the success of the 2003 remake of The Texas Chainsaw Massacre and Rob Zombie's House of 1,000 Corpses earlier that same year. The genre cooled a bit this past summer, which began with the disappointing showing for the House of Wax remake, followed by the French thriller High Tension, which completely bombed. Rob Zombie's sequel The Devil's Rejects did slightly better, earning back its production budget opening weekend, but it didn't seem like anyone was interested in R-rated gore until October, when Saw II opened to over $30 million. Of course, Wolf Creek doesn't have the same type of draw, since it isn't a sequel to a movie that made almost $75 million in DVD sales.

There are certainly some younger moviegoers who might go to see something like this on Christmas Day, although it's getting a similarly moderate release as Dimension Films gave Darkness last year, and it's not proven whether the new Weinstein Co. has the marketing clout to get the word out about this rather low-key Aussie horror film.

Related Comparisons
Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
The Devil's Rejects	7/22/05	1,757		$7.07	$4,022	$16.90
High Tension	6/10/05	1,323		$1.90	$1,434	$3.24
House of Wax	5/6/05	3,111		$12.08	$3,882	$31.57
Darkness	12/24/04	1,700		$6.16	$3,625	$22.16
Then Texas Chainsaw Massacre	10/17/03	3,016		$28.09	$9,315	$80.15
Wrong Turn	5/30/03	1,615		$5.16	$3,164	$15.42
The Blair Witch Project	7/30/99	1,101	$6.93	$29.21	$26,530	$140.53
Scream	12/20/96	1,413		$6.35	$4,494	$103.03
The Crocodile Hunter: Collision Course	7/12/02	2,525		$9.54	$3,777	$28.40
Crocodile Dundee in Los Angeles	4/20/01	2,123		$7.71	$3,633	$25.59

Why I Should See It: Greg McLean's debut is a terrifying film that makes The Blair Witch Project look like Babe (the talking pig, remember him? Okay, I guess a talking pig is kind of scary, too.)
Why Not: The bad guy in this horror movie talks like Crocodile Dundee, so maybe you'll be more scared once you stop laughing.

Bottom Line: Without any known stars, it may be hard for the Weinstein Co. to sell this movie, despite its decent, though somewhat familiar, premise. It will probably be relying on word-of-mouth from those who have already seen it and those who see it opening day, and the latter might be hard since school is out, which makes it hard for a genre type flick to sustain any legs.

Projection: Around $3 million on Christmas Day on its way to around $18 million total.

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UNDER THE RADAR

Do you live in a major North American city? If so, there are a number of limited release movies worth checking out. And if you don't live in one of the cities in which these movies open, look for some of them to hit your area sometime in the next few months.

The WARRIOR'S PICKS to look out for in the next few weeks are CASANOVA (Touchstone Pictures), directed by Lasse Hallström, and Richard Shepherd's buddy crime comedy THE MATADOR (The Weinstein Co.). The former stars Heath Ledger in the role of the 17th Century Italian super-lover, who suddenly finds himself rethinking his ways when he meets a brainy suffragette (Sienna Miller). A comedy of errors ensues as he finds himself competing with another suitor, played by Oliver Platt, and having to keep from being captured by the Catholic Church's ruthless cardinal (Jeremy Irons). It opens in select cities on Christmas Day. In the dark comedy The Matador, Pierce Brosnan plays hitman Julian Noble, who strikes up a friendship with a hapless salesman, played by Greg Kinnear, in a bar in Mexico. When he needs help with a hit, he turns to his new friend, who wants nothing to do with it. After opening in New York and Los Angeles on Friday, December 30, it will get a nationwide rollout in the New Year. MY REVIEW (Coming Soon!)

On Wednesday, James Ivory's war-time romance THE WHITE COUNTESS (Sony Pictures Classics), starring Ralph Fiennes and Natasha Richardson, opens in New York and L.A. Fiennes plays a blind American who wants to build the perfect night club in Shanghai with a Russian streetwalker (Richardson) as his centerpiece. MY REVIEW (Coming Soon!) Michael Haneke's thriller CACHE (HIDDEN) (Sony Pictures Classics) stars Daniel Auteuil and Juliette Binoche as a couple terrorized by a mysterious stranger sending them video tapes of their daily lives. Part David Lynch's Lost Highway and part "Candid Camera," the French film also opens in New York and L.A. on Friday.

Filmmaker Terrence Malick takes a look at the early days of the British settlers in America in THE NEW WORLD (New Line Films). It stars Colin Farrell as Captain John Smith, the leader of the settlers who becomes smitten with a teen native, played by newcomer Q'orianka Kilcher. It will open nationwide on January 13 after its New York and L.A. release on Christmas Day. MY REVIEW

Opening on Wednesday, December 28, is the latest from Woody Allen, the erotic thriller MATCH POINT (DreamWorks Pictures) starring Jonathan Rhys Meyers as a tennis pro who marries into wealth, but then risks it all when he starts having an affair with his brother-in-law's girlfriend, played by Scarlett Johannson. The film has already received a number of Golden Globe nominations. MY REVIEW (Coming Soon!)

Opening at New York's Cinema Village is the latest film from Claire Denis, THE INTRUDER (Wellspring Media), about a hermit (Michael Subor) living in the French-Swiss Alps, who must come out of his seclusion to get a heart transplant. Opening on Friday in L.A. for a one-week Oscar run is China's submission for the foreign language Oscar, Chen ("Farewell My Concubine") Kaige's MASTER OF THE CRIMSON ARMOR (The Weinstein Co.)—formerly known as The Promise—is a period piece about a beautiful princess (Cecilia Cheung) who becomes the object of affection for three men from different social classes.

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THIS TIME LAST YEAR

Last Christmas, the Top 10 was almost wiped clean of returning movies due to a combination of new films and those expanding nationwide after runs in limited release. The clear-cut winner of the weekend was Meet the Fockers, the sequel to Ben Stiller and Robert DeNiro's hit comedy from 2000. Opening on Wednesday, the sequel, which added Dustin Hoffman and Barbara Streisand to the mix, made more than $24 million in its first two days, than rested comfortably at the top with another $46 million over the weekend, the highest gross for a Christmas opener ever. It would go onto earn over $275 million, making it the highest grossing non-family comedy of all time, and earning over $100 million more than the first movie. Andrew Lloyd Webber's Broadway version of The Phantom of the Opera was given the big screen treatment by director Joel Schumacher; it earned $6.3 million in its first five days in just 622 theatres. Opening on Christmas Day, which fell on a Saturday last year, was the live action remake of the cartoon Fat Albert and the long-delayed Dimension horror film Darkness. The former did decently in its first two days, earning $10 million, enough to place it in third for the weekend behind the Jim Carrey family comedy Lemony Snicket, which dropped 58% from its opening weekend to add $12.6 million to its box office take. New movies from film lovers' favorites Martin Scorsese and Wes Anderson expanded nationwide this weekend with the former's The Aviator, starring Leonardo DiCaprio as Howard Hughes, scoring $8.6 million in just under 1,800 theatres. Anderson's The Life Aquatic with Steve Zissou, starring Bill Murray in the title role, just barely got into the top 10 with just over $4.5 million in 1,100 theatres.

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Next week, the Weekend Warrior takes a much-needed weekend off, and then it's 2006, and Hermione Granger might have said it best when she said: "Everything's going to change now…"

Copyright 2005 Edward Douglas

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