Preview and Projections for the Weekend of August 5, 2005

By Edward Douglas -

Greetings and welcome back to the Weekend Warrior, your weekly guide to the weekend's new movies. Tune in every Tuesday for the latest look at the upcoming weekend, and then check back on Friday for any last minute updates and reviews.

WEEKEND PROJECTIONS - final update 8.4.05

After two miserable weekends for new movies, can another remake do the trick at reviving moviegoers’ interest in them? Maybe so, since this weekend is pretty much an open market for the big screen remake of the popular ‘80s show The Dukes of Hazzard, starring Johnny Knoxville, Seann William Scott and Jessica Simpson as the moonshine runnin’ Duke cousins. Between the popularity of the show and the cast and the general curiosity factor from everyone else, it should finally bring down the deadly duo of Wedding Crashers and Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, which have been roosting at the top for three weeks. (Update: The Dukes of Hazzard is also the 9th widest release of all time, something that would never happen if there was no interest in the movie.) Of course, those two movies should continue to bring in business from those not interested in The Dukes, with Disney’s Sky High and the romantic comedy Must Love Dogs, picking up word-of-mouth business. After grossing more than $16 million, the G-rated nature documentary March of the Penguins will expand further across the nation into 1,867 theatres, as it starts moving up the Top 10. On Saturday night, the Miramax war drama The Great Raid, which opens next week, will get sneak previews in 765 theatres nationwide.

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THE DUKES OF HAZZARD (Warner Bros. Pictures)
Starring: Seann William Scott, Johnny Knoxville, Jessica Simpson, Burt Reynolds, Willie Nelson, Joe Don Baker, Lynda Carter, Alice Greczyn, Kevin Heffernan, Nikki Griffin, James Roday, MC Ganey
Directed by: Jay Chandrasekhar (Super Troopers, Club Dread, Puddle Cruiser)
Genres: Remake, Comedy, Action
Rated PG-13
Theatre Count:3,785
Tagline: “Cousins. Outlaws. Thrillbillies.”
Mini-Review: There's a lot of stupidity involved in this movie, and let's face it: Jessica Simpson cannot act. Still, there's a degree of fun to be had by turning off your brain and watching the Dukes do what they do best, and if nothing else, the movie has simply some of the best stunt driving around. Also, the ever-present Broken Lizards, particularly Kevin Heffernan, insures that the laughs are abundant and frequent. If nothing else, it's better than the show! Rating: 7 out of 10

In Hazzard County, Georgia, cousins Bo and Luke Duke (Scott, Knoxville) and their cousin Daisy Duke (Jessica Simpson) run moonshine made by their Uncle Jesse (Willie Nelson) while avoiding the local authority, Boss Hog (Burt Reynolds). Their problems with the Boss are only beginning as they learn he’s been plotting to stripmine the town for valuable ores found below it.

I know what you’re thinking: not another remake!! Sorry, Billy, but at least the “summer of the remake” is finally winding down and ending with what might be the most reverential remake of an ‘80s television show since…well, I’ll have to get back to you on that one. The Dukes of Hazzard is the latest show to get the big screen treatment in this latest wave that can be traced back to the success of last year’s action-comedy Starsky & Hutch, and it may very well determine how long the trend will continue.

At least “The Dukes of Hazzard” was a popular enough show with a diehard fanbase, even twenty years since it aired, that it warrants a big screen version. The original show was actually based on a 1975 movie called Moonrunners, and it tried to imitate the feel of some of Burt Reynolds’ popular movies of the era. The principal was simple: Bo and Luke Duke (John Schneider and Tom Wopat) would run moonshine across the county in their souped-up car, the General Lee, while trying to thwart the plans of the county’s authority, Boss Hogg (Sorrell Booke). Helping them out was their cousin Daisy, played by Catherine Bach, who would distract Sherrif Rosco P. Coltrane’s police officers, by flashing some skin and shaking some booty. Is there any wonder that it was such a big hit?

Replacing John Schneider and Tom Wopat as Bo and Luke are two guys who many consider the epitome of fun and action, Seann William Scott and Johnny Knoxville. (Please don’t ask me which is which, though!) Both guys have built a strong fanbase of college age and older guys thanks to their career choices, particularly Scott, who first got noticed by playing the popular role of Stifler in the 1999 R-rated comedy American Pie. The movie spawned two sequels, which both opened in early August, and by the time the “trilogy” came to a close with 2003’s American Wedding, Scott’s character was being featured prominently in the movies. In between the American Pie movies, Scott starred in two car-based comedies Dude Where’s My Car? and Road Trip—notice a trend?—and in the not so successful sci-fi comedy Evolution. Scott’s also no stranger to action, having starred in the martial arts film Bulletproof Monk with Chow Yun Fat and The Rundown with The Rock. Knoxville has even more action under his belt having created and hosted the popular MTV stunt show “Jackass,” which was turned into an equally successful movie. His film roles have included everything from blockbusters like Men in Black II to John Waters’ A Dirty Shame and Deuces Wild. This is the first major studio movie where Knoxville has a key role. (Rumors were that Ashton Kutcher was once going to play the role played by Knoxville, but they must have feared getting reviews like “Dude, where’s the General Lee?”)

Then there’s the Jessica Simpson factor. Simpson began her career as a pop singer opening for acts like Ricky Martin, but her big break came in the form of the MTV reality show “Newlyweds” with her hubby 98 Degrees singer Nick Lachey. Dukes will be her big screen debut, and while she may not be much of an actress and MENSA won’t be sending her an application any time soon, she does have a great body, which is why she was perfect to wear next to nothing as the movie version of Daisy Duke. This is the catch. Since Simpson is so prevalent in the tabloids and everywhere else, there may be some trepidation to go see a movie starring her. Earlier this summer, Warner Bros. had a remake of the horror movie House of Wax, which got trashed by critics and pretty much bombed, partially because it was the feature film debut of heiress turned amateur porn star Paris Hilton, another “instant celebrity” who the world quickly got tired of hearing about. Simpson will try to make the most from this role to start a successful film career so she doesn’t end up becoming the next Hilton…or Britney Spears…or Madonna, for that matter.

The Cast
Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
The Rundown	9/26/03	3,152		$18.53	$5,880	$47.59
Bulletproof Monk	4/18/03	2,955	$3.10	$8.65	$2,928	$23.01
American Wedding	8/1/03	3,172		$33.37	$10,520	$104.35
American Pie 2	8/10/01	3,063		$45.12	$14,729	$145.10
American Pie	7/9/99	2,507		$18.71	$7,463	$101.74
Dude, Where's My Car?	12/15/00	2,087		$13.85	$6,634	$46.72
Jackass: The Movie	10/25/02	2,509		$22.76	$9,072	$64.27
The Longest Yard	5/27/05	3,634		$58.61	$16,129	$141.95
Without a Paddle	8/20/04	2,730		$13.53	$4,956	$58.16

But who else could they get for the role of Boss Hogg, Hazzard’s despotic authority figure, then Burt Reynolds? In some of the most perfect casting of the year, Reynolds, whose movies were such a huge influence on the “Dukes” show, has been brought aboard as the baddie. Reynolds has been making quite a comeback in the last year, first with his cameo in last summer’s Without a Paddle, the Seth Green-Matthew Lillard comedy that spoofed his movie Deliverance, and then earlier this summer, by co-starring with Adam Sandler and Chris Rock in the hit remake of his own early film The Longest Yard. Needless to say, Reynolds is on a roll, and he’s probably going to be the biggest draw for men and women over 30.

Then again, the film also features another American icon in 72-year-old country star Willie Nelson who takes over for Denver Pyle in the role of Uncle Jesse. Besides being one of the country’s most popular country singer/songwriters, having sold 46 million albums, Nelson has spent some time trying to make headway into television and films with movies that were far from hits like The Journeyman and The Big Bounce. Then again, his role in Dukes is casting as clever as making Reynolds be Boss Hogg, since Southern fans of Nelson’s music are likely to have been fans of the show. He also adds to the anti-authority aspect of the cast, which is sure to appeal to anyone that appreciates the Dukes’ M.O. The cast is rounded out by former Wonder Woman Lynda Carter, returning after her success in last week’s Sky High, and you should try to recognize Sideways’ MC Ganey, who is actually wearing clothes in this movie.

More than the cast and the shorts, many guys will be there to see the high flyin’ stunt car action as the movie ups the ante on the TV show with a lot more exciting stunts and racier humor that the TV censors might not let pass back in the ‘80s. A lot of the latter can be attributed to director Jay Chandrasekhar, the man behind the three cult comedies by the Broken Lizard comedy troupe. Their first movie Puddle Jumper was done on a super low budget, but their follow-up Super Troopers did decent business by getting a wide release. Released two years later, their third film Club Dread was a disaster, since it tried to go up against Mel Gibson’s The Passion of The Christ. (Lesson learned: Don’t try to counter-program Jesus.) Chandrasekar ended up bringing most of the Broken Lizard troupe to rewrite and play smaller roles in this remake, with the standout being Kevin Heffernan, who also had a role in Disney’s Sky High.

The Dukes of Hazzard isn’t the first high-profile television remake ever, but in the past, action drama shows like Charlie’s Angels and S.W.A.T. have fared better when turned into movies then comedies like The Beverly Hillbillies or McHale’s Navy. While this summer has already seen a number of hit remakes like The Longest Yard, War of the Worlds and Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, those based on television shows like The Honeymooners and Bewitched have not done as well. On the other hand, the combination of action and comedy in Todd Phillips’ rather different take on Starsky and Hutch, starring Ben Stiller and Owen Wilson, brought in $88 million during the slow month of March, and The Dukes of Hazzard is likely to do better business due to its summer launch. Then again, since it’s already so late into the “summer of the remake,” audiences may already be getting tired of them, which could keep it from setting any box office records.

If there are any doubts that the Dukes are still popular and that people want to see this movie, check out the Yahoo Buzz chart. The Dukes of Hazzard has been sitting at or near the top of this chart for months, which shows that there’s definitely interest from a mass audience. The good thing is that the movies gives something to the Southern fans who may be bored with all of the silly intellectual action flicks like War of the Worlds and The Island, and Dukes’ business will likely be as regional as the show with theatres in the rural South doing better business then Northern cities, where audiences might feel too high-fallutin’ to go see it. As is the case with all remakes, this movie will try to find a younger audience who may not even have been born when the original show was running, and with little else out there for the coveted 15 to 25 audience, this will probably be theit first choice, not only because it looks fun, but they’ll also be curious about why the Dukes have been considered such a big deal for so long.

Related Comparisons
Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Broken Lizard's Club Dread	2/27/04	1,807		$3.04	$1,680	$4.99
Super Troopers	2/15/02	1,780		$7.15	$4,016	$18.49
Starsky and Hutch	3/5/04	3,185		$28.10	$8,824	$88.20
S.W.A.T.	8/8/03	3,202		$37.06	$11,575	$116.64
Charlie's Angels	11/3/00	3,037		$40.13	$13,214	$125.31
The Wild Wild West	7/2/99	3,342	$13.27	$27.72	$8,294	$113.81
The Beverly Hillbillies	10/15/93	2,152		$9.53	$4,428	$41.95

Why I Should See It: Amazing cart stunts and Jessica Simpson in the Daisy Dukes!
Why Not: Because the only way the movie could be dumber than the TV show is by giving a role to Jessica Simpson.

Bottom Line: While there may be some doubts about another remake, the combination of comedy and action, and there not being much else to see in theatres, should give The Dukes of Hazzard a nice open market to do well opening weekend. From there, it’s all up to whether people feel that this remake was worthwhile or not, and it should find some steady business with few other high profile movies coming out in August.

Projection: $33 to 35 million on its way to around $100 million or slightly more.

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UNDER THE RADAR

Do you live in a major North American city? If so, there are a number of limited release movies worth checking out. And if you don't live in one of the cities in which these movies open, look for some of them to hit your area sometime in the next few months. With only one new movie in wide release, the playing field is wide open for a bunch of independent and foreign films to grab a bit of business in the markets too “sophisticated” for The Dukes of Hazzard.

This week is so full of great movies, but this week’s WARRIOR’S PICKS are MY DATE WITH DREW (Slow Hand Releasing) and JUNEBUG (Sony Pictures Classics). My Date with Drew is the filmed results of Brian Herzlinger’s quest to get a date with the actress he’s idolized since youth, Drew Barrymore. Armed with $1,100 and a movie camera “rented” from Circuit City, he has 30 days to accomplish this goal with hilarious results. It opens in 66 theatres in major cities. MY REVIEW Opening in New York and L.A., Junebug is the directorial debut from video director Phil Morrison, about an art dealer (Embeth Davitz) who travels down to North Carolina with her husband to meet his dysfunctional Southern family, only to get caught up in their neverending drama. MY REVIEW If I could have three picks—which I guess I can, since it’s my column--I’d go with Jim Jarmusch’s BROKEN FLOWERS (Focus Features) starring Bill Murray as a middle-aged ladies’ man who discovers that he may have sired a child with an ex-girlfriend, sending him on a road trip to find him. It opens in select cities. MY REVIEW Oh, what the heck, let’s go for four! China’s premiere auteur Wong Kar Wai returns with 2046 (Sony Pictures Classics), a continuation of his 2000 romantic drama In the Mood for Love. Tony Leung (Hero) is back as the writer who had an elicit affair with a married woman, as he tries to find love with new women in a rundown hotel in Hong Kong. Opening in New York and L.A., it stars Gong Li and Zhang Ziyi. MY REVIEW

How’s this for a switch? THE CHUMSCRUBBER (Newmarket Films), an indie drama starring Billy Elliot’s Jamie Bell as a teenager trying to cope in a world of oblivious adults after his best friend commits suicide, will open in 9 cities including Portland, Seattle, Minneapolis, Milwaukee, Dallas, Houston. It will then open in New York and Los Angeles on August 26, so all those “we must see it first” snobs in the two major movie cities will just have to wait. It also stars Glenn Close, Ralph Fiennes, Allison Janney, Carrie-Anne Moss, Rita Wilson and Camilla Belle, MINI-REVIEW: Honestly, do we really need another suburban dramedy about medicated teens and Stepford housewives? This ground has been covered so well in far too many better movies. Though the movie looks good, the story is a mess and it's an incredible waste of a very talented cast. If this is dark comedy, it would have been nice if it was even remotely funny. Rating: 4 out of 10

From Venezuela comes Jonathan Jakubowicz’s SECUESTRO EXPRESS (Miramax Films) about a woman, played by Mia Maestro, Sidney Bristow’s younger sister from “Alias,” who is kidnapped, along with her boyfriend, by a gang of thugs who plan to ransom them off to their parents. MINI-REVIEW: There seems to be very little purpose to this except to show what the influence of filmmakers like Tarantino and Ritchie have wrought on foreign cinema. This rather unpleasant and unentertaining affair comes across like a Venezuelan film school project, as the gorgeous Mia Maestro is treated in all sorts of abusive ways by attackers...who we're somehow supposed to sympathize with? Rating: 3 out of 10

Former Superman, Dean Cain, is back and this time he has a talking dog (!) in BAILEY’S BILLION$ (Echo Bridge Entertainment), about a golden retriever named Bailey who inherits a fortune from his elderly mistress, an animal rights activist, but they find themselves fending off others trying to get their hands on the money, including Jennifer Tilly and Tim Curry. Steven Greenstreet’s documentary THIS DIVIDED STATE (Minority Films), which has already been playing in Utah after a college tour, shows the controversy that follows the decision to have filmmaker Michael Moore talk at Utah Valley State College just weeks before the presidential election. After a run in Utah, it will open in San Francisco this weekend and New York, Seattle on August 19. Michael McGowan’s dramedy SAINT RALPH (Samuel Goldwyn Films) is about a young Catholic schoolboy who hopes to win the Boston Marathon with the reluctant help of a priest (Campbell Scott), who believes that it would take a miracle for him to win. Look for it in 60 theatres in select cities. Also, the elusive family film DUMA (Warner Bros. Pictures), which has been covered a number of times here, will open in Chicago this weekend.

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THIS TIME LAST YEAR

August kicked off with the latest action-thriller from Michael Mann (Heat), this one starring Tom Cruise and Jamie (Stealth) Foxx. Despite there being little competition, it was not one of Cruise’s bigger openings, earning less than $25 million, though still ruling over the weekend. Of course, it didn’t help that M. Night Shyamalan’s The Village tanked in its second weekend, dropping 68% to 2^nd place with just under $17 million. Brittany Murphy gave another shot at doing romantic comedy with Little Black Book, but “I’ll never tell” how poorly it did. Okay, you twisted my arm. It made $7 million opening weekend coming in 5^th place. Combined, the top 10 earned less than $95 million, making it the weakest weekend of the summer.

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Next week, the hits keep coming as Rob Schneider reprises his finest moment--wow, that’s actually kind of sad--in Deuce Bigalow: European Gigolo, John Singleton directs Four Brothers starring Mark Wahlberg, while Kate Hudson fears The Skeleton Key, and the Miramax war film The Great Raid finally sees the light of day.

Copyright 2005 Edward Douglas