Preview and Projections for the Weekend of April 29, 2005
By Edward Douglas -

Greetings and welcome back to the Weekend Warrior, your weekly guide to the weekend’s new movies. Tune in every Tuesday for the latest look at the upcoming weekend, and then check back on Friday for any last minute updates and reviews.

WEEKEND PROJECTIONS - final update 4.28.05

The summer kicks off a mite early this year, as well as starting a bit milder then the last few years without the hype of a big event movie like Spider-Man, X2 or even Van Helsing. Instead, there are two franchise films, both with a built-in audience and each playing up to the strengths of their genre while vying for the honor of becoming the first #1 movie of the summer season. A very slight advantage for the top spot goes to the action sequel XXX: State of the Union, which no longer has the original movie’s star Vin Diesel, but his co-star Samuel L. Jackson is back, joined by Ice Cube, to give the sequel a stronger urban flavor that should bring in a lot of guys 25 and younger. Douglas Adams’ The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy has been such a long time coming that science fiction fans should rush to see it opening weekend, although the weak commercials and lesser known cast will make it hard for it to attract much more of an audience beyond them, except for maybe kids. It could be a fairly close race with XXX doing better on Friday night, but Hitchhiker’s making up the difference over the weekend and maybe even passing it before they’re both obliterated by the release of Star Wars: Episode III in May. Expanding from its platform release, David Duchovny’s drama House of D with Robin Williams and his wife Tea Leone may expand into over 300 theaters in select cities this weekend.

TW	LW	Title	Weekend (in millions)	Change	# Of Theaters	Average	Week
1	New	XXX: State of the Union	$27.6	N/A	3,480	$7,931	1
2	New	The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy	$24.5	N/A	3,133	$7,820	1
3	1	The Interpreter	$14.2	-38%	2,764	$5,137	2
4	2	The Amityville Horror	$6.7	-52%	3,058	$2,191	3
5	3	Sahara	$5.0	-44%	3,112	$1,607	4
6	4	A Lot Like Love	$4.6	-40%	2,502	$1,839	2
7	5	Kung Fu Hustle	$3.7	-46%	2,500	$1,480	2
8	6	Fever Pitch	$3.2	-42%	2,192	$1,460	4
9	8	Guess Who	$2.0	-42%	1,863	$1,074	6
10	7	Sin City	$1.9	-51%	1,665	$1,141	5
			Est. Weekend Total $93.40	Est. Avg. Drop-Off -44%		Est. Average PTA $3,174

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THE HITCHHIKER’S GUIDE TO THE GALAXY (Touchstone Pictures)
Starring: Sam Rockwell, Mos Def, Zooey Deschanel, Martin Freeman, Bill Nighy, Anna Chancellor, John Malkovich, Warwick Davis, Steve Pemberton, Stephen Fry, Helen Mirren
Directed by: Garth Jennings
Genres: Action, Comedy, Science-Fiction
Rated PG
Theatre Count: 3,133
Tagline: “Don’t Panic.”
Mini-Review: A loving tribute to Douglas Adams' work, the big screen version tends to go a bit over-the-top with the slapstick comedy, but they get so much of the rest of it so perfectly that it's easily forgiven. Rating: 8 out of 10

Douglas Adams’ science fiction classic is brought to the big screen, telling the story of the mild-mannered Arthur Dent (Martin Freeman), a quiet Brit whose house is about to be demolished to make way for a highway. But that’s only a minor problem compared to the fact that Earth is about to be destroyed by a race of aliens called the Vogons. Saved by his friend Ford Prefect (Mos Def), an intergalactic hitchhiker, Arthur goes on an adventure across space, as he tries to win the heart of the lovely Trisha (Zooey Deschanel).

In 1978, Douglas Adams introduced the world to a bizarre and very British take on science fiction with his radio program “The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy”, which could have been his humorous take on George Lucas’ Star Wars. A bestselling novel based on the series followed shortly after, and both proved popular enough to warrant a follow-up called “The Restaurant at the End of the Universe.” Ultimately, they would lead to a 1981 television series on the BBC featuring much of the same cast from the radio show, which would be rerun repeatedly in this country on PBS. Adams followed the success of the show with two more books, expanding upon the original idea of making the series a trilogy, and even took some of his ideas into the world of video games with “Starship Titanic” and a number of internet projects based on the works. Adams’ books have sold millions of copies worldwide, being translated into many languages, and becoming a sci-fi classic in the process. The book has had a huge influence on sci-fi culture, as well as British comedy, Adams finding fans in the Monty Python troupe and bestselling author Neil Gaiman, who wrote a guide to the books. Sadly, Adams died of a heart attack in 2001 shortly before the third radio show based on “Life, the Universe, and Everything,” aired on the BBC, but up until his death, Adams was working on a screenplay for a feature film. In an irony that only Adams could appreciate, his death was the catalyst for a “Hitchhiker’s Guide” movie to finally be greenlit and financed.

With such a high profile project, you would think that a lot of big name stars or established director would be involved. Instead, the producers went with award-winning British video director Garth Jennings, one half of the acclaimed production team “Hammer and Tongs.” Jennings decided to go with lesser name stars in order to insure that Douglas Adams and his work remained the real star of the movie. Instead of going for an obvious Brit pretty boy like Hugh Grant for Arthur Dent, Jennings picked Martin Freeman, a rising star who is best known in this country as Tim from the hit BBC show “The Office,” which won a couple Emmys two years ago. He also played the porn film stand-in in the British romantic comedy Love Actually in 2003. Dent’s friend and sidekick Ford Prefect is played by rapper Mos Def, who seems to be getting all of the roles that Orlando Jones would normally do if he hadn’t disappear off the face of the earth. Def made a name for himself on Russell Simmons’ Def Poetry Jam, before getting a breakout role in the 2003 remake of The Italian Job. Most recently, Mos Def starred opposite Kevin Bacon in the indie drama The Woodsman. Dent’s love interest is played by Zooey Deschanel, who has been a Sundance darling with indie favorites like All the Real Girls and Eulogy, but got her big break playing opposite Will Ferrell in his hit holiday comedy Elf.

The role of Zaphod Beeblebrox, President of the Galaxy, which at one point would have been played by Jim Carrey, is played by Sam Rockwell, who already had some experience with science fiction, having played a minor role in Tim Allen’s comedy Galaxy Quest, which poked fun at the same SF fans who would go to see stuff like this. Rockwell’s biggest role to date was playing Chuck Barris in George Clooney’s directorial debut Confessions of a Dangerous Mind, but for Hitchhiker’s, Rockwell gets to play the galaxy’s dim-witted and (quite literally) two-faced President. The most recognized name and voice might be that of Alan Rickman, who co-starred with Rockwell in Galaxy Quest, before taking the role of Professor Snape in the last three Harry Potter movies. You’ll only be hearing his voice coming from the “mouth” of Marvin the Paranoid Android, a popular favorite who provides the film’s comic relief. (The guy operating the Marvin suit is none other than Warwick Davis, best known for playing an Ewok in George Lucas’ third Star Wars film, Return of the Jedi, as well as the title character in Willow.) The movie also stars John Malkovich as religious fanatic Humma Kavula, and Bill Nighy as master architect Slartibartfast. Nighy has been building his American fanbase with roles in Underworld, Shaun of the Dead and most memorably in the British romantic comedy Love Actually.

The lack of big name stars shouldn’t put people off, as the name brand that is Douglas Adams’ novel should be enough to get people interested. Obviously, Disney is hoping that the combination of sci-fi and comedy can replicate the success of Will Smith’s Men in Black and its sequel, although it’s also skating dangerously close to ground covered by movies like Adventures of Pluto Nash and Evolution. The movie’s biggest drawback is that, much like Shaun of the Dead, it may be seen as being too British for mainstream moviegoing audiences, with dark and dry humor encapsulating the subtle undercurrents of political and social satire for which Adams is best known. This might make the movie a harder sell, although considering the recent success of “The Office” and the Monty Python musical “Spamalot”, there may be more Anglophiles out there then people think.

Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy will be a Mecca for the sci-fi fans who’ve waited decades for a movie based on Adams’ work to come out, and in some ways, it could be seen as an hor d’oeuvre to Star Wars: Episode III next month. More importantly, it will reach a certain demographic of sci-fi nerds, the computer programmers, for whom this movie will be like The Passion of The Christ is to Catholics, with a lot of them going to see it in large groups on Friday night. By the nature of Adams’ books being between 15 and 25 years old, Adams’ audience is mainly going to be older guys over 30. Teens and younger males probably won’t be as interested, but the movie could attract younger kids thanks to the strange creatures brought to life by Jim Henson’s muppet shop, although they likely won’t get many of the more subtle winks and nods. It’s been so long since there has been a PG family film that Hitchhiker’s may end up taking the place of movies like Robots and The Pacifier, which both have been out for weeks. It’s the type of film that has the potential to pull in an audience similar to Lemony Snicket’s A Series of Unfortunate Events, although it doesn’t have the starpower of a Jim Carrey or Meryl Streep.

While Hitchhiker’s has the benefits of an amusing internet trailer, the television commercials have not been particularly funny, which kind of misses the point of the books. Because of this, interest may start waning if Disney doesn’t prove that the movie was done right, something that severely hurt the retro sci-fi film Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow last September. Then again, Hitchhiker’s is pretty much a name brand and a known commodity, unlike that CGI driven action film.

Related Comparisons
Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Confessions of a Dangerous Mind	1/24/03	1,769	$0.50	$5.83	$3,297	$15.94
Galaxy Quest	12/25/99	2,412		$7.01	$2,906	$70.26
The Italian Job	5/30/03	2,633		$19.46	$7,390	$105.63
Elf	11/7/03	3,337		$31.11	$9,324	$172.70
Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events	12/17/04	3,620		$30.06	$8,304	$118.01
Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow	9/17/04	3,170		$15.58	$4,915	$37.76
The Adventures of Pluto Nash	8/16/02	2,320		$2.18	$941	$4.41
Men in Black II	7/5/02	3,557	$35.09	$52.15	$14,661	$192.40
The Time Machine	3/8/02	2,944		$22.50	$7,609	$56.68
Evolution	6/8/01	2,611		$13.41	$5,135	$38.31
Men In Black	7/4/97	3,020	$33.06	$51.07	$16,911	$250.15

Why I Should See It: Because Douglas Adams’ hilarious books are the epitome of classic science fiction. (Just don’t forget to bring your towel!)
Why Not: Might be too British or intelligent for younger kids and those looking for a mindless popcorn flick.

Bottom Line: With mostly third string stars, Hitchhiker’s may seem like a disaster waiting to happen, but the solid sci-fi fanbase for Douglas Adams’ books might make it the perfect summer appetizer for Star Wars: Episode III next month. Although it will appeal more towards older males, it should also bring in some women and younger kids, which might allow it to have more staying power then other similar films.

Projection: $23 to 25 million opening weekend on its way to $85 million (although it would be far more ironic for it to make $42 million.)

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XXX: STATE OF THE UNION (Sony Pictures/Revolution Studios)
Starring: Ice Cube, Samuel L. Jackson, Willem Dafoe, Scott Speedman, Michael Roof, Nona Gaye, Peter Strauss
Directed by: Lee Tamahori (Die Another Day)
Genres: Action, Spy
Rated PG-13
Theatre Count (estimated): 3,300
Tagline: “Prepare for the next level.”
MY REVIEW

XXX is back, only this time, he’s not a bald white extreme sports star turned secret agent. He’s now a black ex-convict with only slightly more hair in the form of Ice Cube. But that doesn’t stop NSA Agent Augustus Gibbons (Samuel Jackson) from recruiting him to stop the country’s Secretary of Defense (Willem Dafoe) from plotting a coup against the United States government.

In 2002, Vin Diesel was riding high after the success of The Fast and the Furious, so that film’s producer Neil Moritz and director Rob Cohen decided to create a vehicle to help pave Diesels’ reputation as an action star. That film, XXX, would attempt to turn the secret agent genre on its ear as it introduced the character Xander Cage, who would be recruited as the governement’s first Agent XXX. The movie opened to just under $45 million in early August and grossed over $140 million total, but both Cohen and Diesel decided to leave the franchise behind instead of doing a sequel, much like they did with The Fast and the Furious.

Not wanting to see a good thing go to waste, Moritz decided to continue the franchise with a new XXX, picking Ice Cube, who had starred in his motorcycle film Torque. Coming from the world of rap, Cube’s acting career started fourteen years ago with a key role in John Singleton’s Boyz in the Hood and since then, he has branched into all different genres. Cube had been making waves among moviegoers, particularly African Americans, with successful comedy franchises like the three Friday films, which have grossed over $100 million cumulatively, and two Barbershop films, which made even more. He even got into family comedy earlier this year with the hit Are We There Yet? which used a formula, which was replicated by Vin Diesel, when he took on the genre with last month’s The Pacifier. Besides Torque, Ice Cube’s only other foray into action films was John Carpenter’s Ghosts of Mars, a summer bomb.

Sam Jackson has done far better with the action genre, not only with XXX, but with the 2003 big screen version of S.W.A.T., and of course, his role as Mace Windu in George Lucas’ last two Star Wars prequels, the latter of which opens in three weeks. Reprising his role as Augustus Gibbons makes sense, since it makes the XXX more about Jackson then whomever is filling the shoes at the moment. Jackson’s already had a busy year, which started off with the basketball drama Coach Carter, and continued with the John Boorman drama In My Country. Jackson and Cube started a bit of a trend this year when their two January movies were back-to-back #1 at the box office, staring a run of top movies starring African-American actors, continued by Will Smith’s Hitch and Tyler Perry’s Diary of a Mad Black Woman. Pairing the two actors together will definitely make the XXX sequel more of a draw for young black males than the first movie, which should help it continue that trend.

Ice Cube/Sam Jackson
Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
xXx	8/9/02	3,374		$44.51	$13,191	$141.20
Are We There Yet?	1/21/05	2,709		$18.58	$6,857	$81.36
Torque	1/16/04	2,463		$11.44	$4,646	$21.18
Coach Carter	1/14/05	2,524		$24.18	$9,581	$67.17
S.W.A.T.	8/8/03	3,202		$37.06	$11,575	$116.64
Shaft	6/16/00	2,337		$21.71	$9,290	$70.30
Deep Blue Sea	7/30/99	2,854	$6.06	$19.11	$6,696	$73.65

Of course, all of the film’s bad guys are white, starting with Willem Dafoe, best known for his memorable portrayal of Norman Osborn and the Green Goblin in Spider-Man, one of the highest grossing films of all time. This won’t be Dafoe’s first time playing a villain in a sequel that was missing the first film’s star; he played the bad guy in Speed 2. Speaking of speed, the movie also stars Scott Speedman from the WB teen drama “Felicity” as Agent Kyle Steele. He already has his foot into the world of action franchises having starred in the 2003 breakout film Underworld, which has a sequel later this year. Cube’s crew is made up of Nona Gaye, daughter of legendary soul singer Marvin Gaye who appeared in The Polar Express, and rapper Xzibit, returning to the big screen after his debut in Eminem’s 8 Mile. Xzibit has been spending his time in between records as host of MTV’s “Pimp My Ride”, a skill which should be put to good use for his character in XXX: State of the Union.

There’s a bit of irony involved with the sequel’s Kiwi director Lee Tamahori. The original XXX was intended as a way to modernize James Bond and make it more hip, and it even made fun of the Bond formula. Months later, the 20^th James Bond film Die Another Day came out and grossed more than XXX both opening weekend and overall. This might have been why Neil Moritz chose to hire Tamahori to helm the sequel, in hopes of bringing that same level of action to their franchise.

The biggest problem with XXX: State of the Union might be its sequel factor, since it’s obviously been made solely to make money off of the fans who went to see the first movie. Except that the first movie was not exactly a classic, and those who did like it may not be happy that Diesel isn’t returning. Not that it hurt 2 Fast 2 Furious, the sequel to the blockbuster street racing film, which ended up making more money opening weekend than the original without either Diesel or director Rob Cohen. Most people will agree that the original XXX was good, but not great, with the IMDB user rating for the movie being in the midrange, putting it only slightly higher than than Lara Croft: Tomb Raider. Although Angelina Jolie, the star of that action film, returned for the sequel, it ended up faring far worse at the box office.

Obviously, the main audience for the movie will be guys from 15 to 25 with a strong pull for guys in urban areas, and Sony has been doing their usual onslaught of commercials to make sure their target audience is aware of it. Besides showcasing the movie's non-stop action, it also tries to play up to the country's newfound patriotism with the film's Washington D.C. based premise. XXX: State of the Union is getting an ultra-wide release into over 3,300 theatres in hopes of it getting the type of summer opening that has helped other sequels like The Mummy Returns and X2. On top of that, the unrated Director’s Cut DVD of XXX, which came out last week, includes a complimentary ticket for the sequel, which could help get more people into theatres despite the absence of Vin Diesel. Still, this is the type of movie that gets a big audience opening weekend, but then quickly loses ground as word gets around that it’s not as good as the commercials.

Related Comparisons
Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Die Another Day	11/22/02	3,314		$47.07	$14,204	$158.63
2 Fast 2 Furious	6/6/03	3,408		$50.47	$14,810	$127.08
The Fast and the Furious	6/22/01	2,628		$40.09	$15,255	$144.51
Lara Croft Tomb Raider: The Cradle of Life	7/25/03	3,222		$21.78	$6,761	$65.65
Lara Croft: Tomb Raider	6/15/01	3,308		$47.74	$14,430	$131.14
The Mummy Returns	5/4/01	3,401		$68.14	$20,035	$202.01
The Mummy	5/7/99	3,210		$43.37	$13,511	$155.25
Speed 2	6/13/97	2,615		$16.16	$6,180	$48.08
Speed	6/10/94	2,138		$14.46	$6,763	$121.25

Why I Should See It: The combination of Ice Cube, Samuel Jackson and Lee Tamahori should make for a decent action-adventure popcorn flick.
Why Not: That usually is often used as a euphemism for a bad summer sequel.

Bottom Line: Although the presence of Ice Cube and Samuel Jackson should bring in a larger urban audience than the original XXX, this sequel can’t count too much on those who sat through the first movie to return for a sequel without Vin Diesel as the title character. Still, XXX: State of the Union is the type of mindless action film that guys between the ages of 15 and 25 will dig, so expect this to be the first choice of what is usually the largest movie demographic.

Projection: $26 to 28 million on its way to $75 million.

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UNDER THE RADAR

Do you live in a major North American city? If so, there are a number of limited release movies worth checking out. And if you don't live in one of the cities in which these movies open, look for some of them to hit your area sometime in the next few months.

Opening in Limited Release:
DEATH OF A DYNASTY (TLA Releasing)

Damon Dash directs the mockumentary Death of a Dynasty, following journalist Dave Katz as he writes a story on the hip-hop world of Roc-A-Fella Records, run by Dash and his partner Jay-Z. Although Katz thinks he’s getting some great gossip on the label and its chiefs, things may not be what they seem. Death of Dynasty opens in New York, Brooklyn, Baltimore and Philly.

Mini-Review: While not nearly as insulting and juvenile as State Property 2, this comes pretty close. Although there are a few funny sequences, most notably with director James Toback playing a shyster record label exec, for the most part, this is just another attempt by Damon Dash to hype himself up and make fun of other rappers. Rating: 3 out of 10

Opening in New York and Los Angeles:
3-IRON (Sony Pictures Classics)
THE HOLY GIRL (Fine Line Features)
LADIES IN LAVENDER (Roadside Attractions/IDP)

WARRIOR'S PICK: Korean director Kim Ki-Duk (Spring, Summer, Fall, Winter..and Spring) returns with 3-Iron, a very different romantic drama about a quiet young man who breaks into homes, not to steal anything, but to try to live the lives of the inhabitants. When he comes upon an abused woman inside what he thinks is an empty home, he gets involved in a violent love triangle with her and her husband. MY REVIEW (Coming Soon!)

The Holy Girl from Lucrecia Martel is the story of two teenage girls, Amalia and Josefina, who use their burgeoning sexuality to take advantage of an older doctor, who is interested in the divorced mother of one of them. This Argentine coming-of-age tale was produced by Pedro Almodovar (Talk to Her, Bad Education).

In Ladies in Lavender, Dames Judi Dench and Maggie Smith are sisters living in the fishing village of Cornwall during the ‘30s, who find a mysterious stranger, played by Daniel Bruhl (Goodbye Lenin) washed ashore on their beach. They nurse him back to health and learn that he is a Jewish violinist from Krakow whose presence disrupts their quiet lives.

Opening in Boston and New York
FUNNY HA HA (Goodbye Cruel Releasings)

Andrew Bujalski’s dark comedy Funny Ha ha is about a college graduate named Marnie trying to make it in the real world by finding a job and a boyfriend, while still having the same kind of fun she had while back at school. The film won Bujalski an Independent Spirit Award in 2004 as a filmmaker to watch.

Opening in New York:
STALIN’S WIFE
THE TUNNEL (Roxie Releasing)
Á TOUT DE SUITE (Cinema Guild)

Slava Zuckerman (Liquid Sky) helms the documentary Stalin’s Wife, which looks at the life and mysterious death of Nadezhda Alliluyev, who married the 37-year-old Joseph Stalin when she was just 16. She remained married to him for fourteen years through his transformation from revolutionary to dictator, but was then found dead in bed with a gun by her side. Although it appeared to be a suicide, murder was never ruled out. This intriguing film opens at the Quad Cinema on Friday.

Roland Suso Richter’s The Tunnel is a dramatization of the biggest underground escape from East to West Berlin when a East German swimming champ, who was able to get to the West before the Wall went up, comes up with a plan to bring over his sister. The German film opens at New York’s Quad Cinema on Friday.

French director Jacquot Benoit (A Single Girl) returns with Á Tout De Suite, a thriller about a 19-year-old girl named Lili, who gets involved with a bank robber, joining him on the lamb from the law after he kills a man during his latest robbery. Shot in black and white, Benoit’s latest opens at New York’s Angelika Cinema on Friday, and at other theatres in May.

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THIS TIME LAST YEAR

While this week is being highly regarded as the first weekend of the summer movie season, the same week last year was the traditional April dumping ground with four new movies, and only one doing any significant business. The one breakout was the high school comedy Mean Girls, written by Saturday Night Live’s Tina Fey and starring “It Girl” Lindsay Lohan. It took the top spot quite effortlessly with an opening weekend gross of over $24 million. Denzel Washington’s Man on Fire held its ground with a minor 35% drop-off despite falling to second, while Jennifer Garner’s 13 Going on 30 took a bigger hit in its second weekend. The other three new movies earned between $6 and 7 million with the thriller Godsend, starring Greg Kinnear, Robert DeNiro and Rebeccah Romijn, faring the best of them, followed closely by Laws of Attraction, a romantic courtroom comedy in which Piece Brosnan and Julianne Moore faced-off. After being delayed for years, the dark comedy Envy paired Ben Stiller and Jack Black, two popular comedians. Fortunately, audiences knew pooh when they saw it, so it barely earned over $6 million.

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Next week, summer rolls along with Kingdom of Heaven, a war epic from director Ridley Scott; a remake of the horror classic House of Wax starring Elisa Cuthbert and Paris Hilton; and Crash, a drama directed by Million Dollar Baby writer Paul Haggis.

Copyright 2005 Edward Douglas