Preview and Projections for the Weekend of October 8, 2004
By Edward Douglas -

Greetings and welcome back to the Weekend Warrior, your weekly guide to the weekend's new movies. Tune in every Tuesday for the latest look at the upcoming weekend, and then check back on Friday for last minute updates based on actual theatre counts.

This weekend commemorates the third anniversary of writing a weekly movie preview and analysis column, dating back to my days at HSJ.org. While there have been a number of changes over the years, the general idea has always remained the same—to let people know what movies are coming out and the pluses and minuses that factor into how they may do over the weekend. As always, thanks to ComingSoon.net for giving the Weekend Warrior a home and congrats on their own recent sixth anniversary of supplying the ‘net with movie and entertainment news. Thanks also to all of those who have read and supported this column for the last three years; it’s greatly appreciated and I love to hear from you! (Which is why there's that convenient EMail link at the top of every column!)

WEEKEND PROJECTIONS - final update 10.07.04

This weekend, three new movies open with none of them standing much of a chance at dethroning last week’s #1 family hit Shark Tale, which should hold onto the top slot without much of a problem. The new movie that may steal away the most audience is the Jimmy Fallon Queen Latifah,action-comedy Taxi, which gives Luc Besson’s series of French action-comedies a distinctly American flavor. The other two movies will strive for their own distinct markets with Billy Bob Thornton's football drama Friday Night Light appealing to older guys, and Hillary Duff’s Raise Your Voice, targeting her normal group of teen girls. Neither will make that much waves against the returning movies though.The big mover this weekend will be The Motorcycle Diaries, directed by Walter Salles and starring Gael Garcia Bernal, which will expand to 167 theatres and make an unprecedented play into the Top 10. Likewise, look for David O. Russell’s I Heart Huckabees to start making an advance towards the top 10 after its amazing platform release last weekend. Next weekend's releases, Team America and Shall We Dance? will have sneak previews. The Columbus Day holiday on Monday should allow the box office to keep up the momentum of last weekend.

TW	LW	Title	Weekend (in millions)	Change	# Of Theaters	Average	Week
1	1	Shark Tale	$29.5	-38%	4,070	$7,248	2
2	New	Taxi	$18.0*	N/A	3,001*	$5,998	1
3	2	Ladder 49	$13.0	-42%	3,261	$3,988	2
4	New	Friday Night Lights	$12.5	N/A	2,656	$4,706	1
5	New	Raise Your Voice	$8.7	N/A	2,521	$3,451	1
6	3	The Forgotten	$7.3	-38%	2,981	$2,449	3
7	6	Shaun of the Dead	$1.9	-24%	675	$2,815	3
8	15	The Motorcycle Diaries	$1.5	50%	167	$8,982	3
9	4	Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow	$1.5	-54%	1,743	$783	4
10	8	Woman Thou Art Loosed	$1.4	-37%	432	$3,241	2
			Est. Weekend Total $95.30	Est. Avg. Drop-Off -26%		Est. Average PTA $4,374

*Thanks to boxofficemojo for reporting wrong theatre counts yesterday; my original prediction of $18 million stands.

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FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS (Universal Pictures)
Starring: Billy Bob Thornton, Jay Hernandez, Tim McGraw, Lucas Black, Derek Luke, Lee Thompson Young, Connie Britton
Directed by: Peter Berg (The Rundown, Very Bad Things)
Genres: Sports, Action, Drama
Tagline: “Hope comes alive on Friday nights.”

The town of Odessa, Texas has seen better times, struggling with closing businesses and poverty, but those problems seem to disappear every Friday night, as the community rallies around its local high school football team, the Permian High Panthers, as led by Coach Gary Gaines (Billy Bob Thornton). Friday Night Lights follows the 1988 season in the Panthers’ quest to get to the State Championship.

Based on the bestselling non-fiction book “Friday Night Lights: A Town, A Team and a Dream” by H.G. Bissinger, Friday Night Lights is the latest project from producer Brian Grazer, the man behind powerful true-life dramas like A Beautiful Mind and Eminem’s 8 Mile. This time, he explores the world of football, which has been the setting for many great films including Oliver Stone’s Any Given Sunday and Disney’s Remember the Titans, starring Denzel Washington. Like the high school drama Varsity Blues, this movie is more than about just the sport as it looks at the people behind the team in the community, and the timing couldn’t be better, since the frenzy of football season is sure to carry over to the movie.

Although not a Texan himself, Billy Bob Thornton seems like the perfect actor to take on this type of role, although his as a first class actor is countered by a rather spotty career having not quite found his stride after all these years. After starring in a number of straight-to-cable and video movies, his Christmas comedy Bad Santa did very well last November, but then his star turn as Davey Crockett in Disney’s retelling of The Alamo failed to even get the historic war drama buffs into theatres. Thornton has remained pretty busy, though, with appearances in the Coen Brothers’ Intolerable Cruelty and Love, Actually, keeping him prominent in audiences’ minds. Some of the young talented actors supporting Thornton include Antoine Fischer’s Derek Luke and Jay Hernandez, who also appeared in last week’s Ladder 49.

Friday Night Lights director Peter Berg might seem like a strange choice to make a sports drama, having had an eclectic career making movies like the dark comedy Very Bad Things to last year’s buddy comedy, The Rundown, starring The Rock and Sean William Scott. He may seem like a strange choice for a sports drama, but he could bring the excitement to the football scenes to make them work. Then again, his name isn’t being mentioned in the advertising, so it won’t matter much.

Friday Night Lights is being geared as a definitive football movie, which immediately makes it the type of movie geared primarily towards a male audience. Despite having direct competition from last week’s Ladder 49, it will likely find a larger audience in the Midwest and Southern states where the local high school football plays such a big role in the community. It would have a similar appeal as Miracle, the story of the 1980 US Hockey team, did earlier this year, although the story is not nearly as known, despite the best-selling book.

Not that it matters much, since Friday Night Lights hasn’t gotten nearly as much promotion or advertising as those other films, although it is likely getting the biggest push in places like ESPN and Sports Illustrated. Rather than pushing the star or director, Universal is promoting it as being from “the producer of 8 Mile”, but the commercials don’t show anything that would make it a must-see movie. Grazer’s involvement does give Friday Night Lights a bit more credibility as a quality film, and the reviews should be primarily positive guaranteeing extended success among older adults, but it may be a harder immediate sell than other movies this weekend.

Related Comparisons
Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
The Alamo	4/9/04	2,609		$9.12	$3,497	$22.41
Bad Santa	11/28/03	2,005	$4.51	$12.29	$6,131	$59.43
Monster's Ball	3/1/02	660	$11.38	$1.80	$2,727	$31.25
Radio	10/25/03	3,074		$13.30	$4,326	$52.28
Remember the Titans	9/29/00	1,865		$20.91	$11,212	$115.60
The Replacements	8/11/00	2,754		$11.04	$4,009	$44.32
Any Given Sunday	12/24/99	2,505	$7.05	$13.58	$5,421	$75.53
Varsity Blues	1/15/99	2,121		$15.92	$7,506	$52.89
Miracle	2/6/04	2,605		$19.38	$7,439	$64.37

Bottom Line: Despite the great credentials behind this project, as well as the timeliness of the subject matter, the lack of a big marketing push will mean that it won’t get the kind of attention it may deserve its opening weekend. Then again, reviews and word-of-mouth should be good, so it’s likely to be stick around for a few weeks.

Projection: $12 to 13 million opening weekend, and solid legs as word spreads allowing it to make $45 to 50 million in theatres.

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RAISE YOUR VOICE (New Line Cinema)
Starring: Hillary Duff, Jason Ritter, John Corbett, Rebecca De Mornay, Oliver James, David Keith, Rita Wilson
Directed by: Sean McNamara (Hollywood Chaos, Treehouse Hostage, “That’s So Raven”)
Genres: Romance, Drama
Rated PG
Tagline: “Don’t hold back. Don’t give up.”

Hillary Duff plays Terri Fletcher, a teen from a small town who goes against her father's wishes by spending the summer at a performing arts school in Los Angeles, where she must overcome odds to make new friends and find a first love.

Just to prove that every single possible movie idea for a young actress has already been done, here comes a movie that seems to be a cross between Fame and Coyote Ugly. Unlike those movies, Raise Your Voice has the benefits of a popular young actress who has built herself an audience of young fans both on screen and on record.

Hilary Duff only turned 17 last week, but she’s already a huge sensation, having become a household name among the “tweener” set thanks to her hit Disney Channel show “The Lizzie McGuire Show”. Duff’s first big screen appearance was opposite Frankie Muniz in Agent Cody Banks, but a few months later, Disney’s big screen adaptation of her show, The Lizzie McGuire Movie, opened well against X2, and it seemed like the world was her oyster, but around that same time, she left Disney due to contractual issues. Her next movie, appearing as part of the ensemble cast in Steve Martin’s Cheaper by the Dozen, also did very well over the holidays last year, but a few months ago, A Cinderella Story had a weaker opening, but eventually surpassing Lizzie McGuire in its total gross.

Raise Your Voice seems less funny than her previous movies, taking more of a sentimental route, but it also doesn’t seem like it’s something that might appeal to anyone beyond young girls and Duff’s dedicated fans. The movie’s director, Sean McNamara, is strictly small-time, directing mostly television movies and shows like the Disney Channel’s replacement for Hilary Duff, “That’s So Raven”, so the quality and production values will likely be lower than Duff’s previous films.

New Line’s last attempt at marketing this type of film was the Mandy Moore drama How To Deal, which bombed last summer, and that was before a year full of this teen girl fare. Despite starring teen sweetheart Hilary Duff, Raise Your Voice doesn’t seem to be getting that much more promotion, and it will likely be hurt by its fall release, as well as by competing for young audiences against movies like Shark Tale and even Taxi. Reviewers are probably pretty fed up with this type of movie, so they likely won’t go easy on it either.

Related Comparisons
Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
A Cinderella Story	7/16/04	2,625		$13.62	$5,190	$51.14
The Lizzie McGuire Movie	5/2/03	2,825		$17.34	$6,138	$42.67
Agent Cody Banks	3/14/03	3,369		$14.06	$4,175	$47.55
The Prince and Me	4/2/04	2,682		$9.41	$3,507	$28.17
Confessions of a Teenage Drama Queen	2/20/04	2,503		$9.35	$3,736	$29.30
How to Deal	7/18/03	2,319		$5.81	$2,505	$14.11
What a Girl Wants	4/4/03	2,964		$11.43	$3,858	$35.99
Coyote Ugly	8/4/00	2,653		$17.32	$6,528	$60.76

Bottom Line: In a year where teen girl fare has been driven into the ground, even Hilary Duff may not be safe since Raise Your Voice looks like too many other movies that came before it. It probably will have a weaker opening then her last two movies, and it may not find an audience in a busy fall season.

Projection: $7 to 8 million opening weekend on its way to $23 million or less.

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TAXI (20^th Century Fox)
Starring: Queen Latifah, Jimmy Fallon, Jennifer Esposito, Gisele Bundchen, Christian Kane, Henry Simmons, Ana Cristina De Oliceira, Ann-Margret
Directed by: Tim Story (Barbershop, Fantastic Four)
Genres: Action, Comedy
Rated PG-13
Tagline: “He’s armed, but she’s dangerous.”

When he loses his driver’s license, an inept police officer (Jimmy Fallon) must rely on the reckless driving skills of a taxi driver who would prefer to drive racecars (Queen Latifah) to help him stop a gang of beautiful Brazilian bank robbers.

Most people probably won’t realize this, but this new action-comedy is actually an English language remake based on a series of movies produced by the prolific French filmmaker Luc Besson. The twist for the American version is that the speed demon cab driver is played by a black woman, adding to the comedy factor as well as the audience that may go see the movie.

This movie is really no different than the typical buddy cop action comedy originated by Eddie Murphy in movies like 48 Hours and Beverly Hills Cop and Mel Gibson’s Lethal Weapon series. The premise is that two people that shouldn’t get along, usually because of different backgrounds, are forced to work together. The genre has taken a bit of a hit as of late with disappointing copycats like Eddie Murphy’s Showtime and Martin Lawrence’s National Security, but Taxi mixes the humor of those movies with car chase sequences closer to The Fast and the Furious and Luc Besson’s fare.

As is the case with all buddy action movies, the key factor in them working is the chemistry (or lack of it) between the two stars and Taxi has the benefits of stars with mutually exclusive fan bases: Queen Latifah and Jimmy Fallon. Considering how many years he has been the main star on “Saturday Night Live”, it’s surprising that Taxi will be Jimmy Fallon’s first starring role in a feature. The movie careers of SNL alumni have been spotty and for every Adam Sandler, Will Ferrell or Mike Myers, there are the Molly Shannons and Tim Meadows, whose movies never get off the ground. Still it hasn’t stopped Lorne Michaels from releasing a movie starring one of the SNL cast every October for four years in a row, and Taxi returns to a tradition that ended with 2001’s Corky Romano starring Chris Kittan. Unlike the other recent SNL stars, Fallon has also been all over MTV, hosting various award shows, and building a decent following of young people, plus he is wisely making his debut in a movie that isn’t an extension of an SNL sketch. Every comedian has two different camps, those that find them funny and those that find them annoying, and Fallon is no different, having been at the forefront of what some consider the worst few seasons of SNL since the one that followed the original “Not Ready for Prime Time Players”. There is definitely an age cut-off where Fallon’s schtick doesn’t work, and older moviegoers will be turned off by his presence.

Fallon won’t have to carry this on his own as his co-star Queen Latifah has built up a strong urban audience from movies like Brown Sugar and others before crossing over into the mainstream with her Oscar-nominated appearance in Chicago. Pairing her with Fallon may have a similar effect as her pairing with Steve Martin in their hit comedy Bringing Down the House, but Taxi won’t have such a widespread appeal. Despite appearances in hit comedies like Barbershop 2, for which Latifah will headline the spin-off Beauty Shop, and Scary Movie 3, her most recent movie The Cookout, which she wrote and produced, bombed a few weeks back, proving that the queen is not infallible.

Director Tim Story has some experience with films geared towards an urban audience, having helmed the hugely popular Barbershop back in 2002, but this will just be a stopgap until his next big film, next summer’s big screen version of The Fantastic Four. Still, he should bring enough urban comedy to the mix to help bring in the younger urban males. The formula should work in a similar way as last year’s The Rundown starring The Rock and Sean William Scott.

In an odd twist, Taxi will be opening in select cities on Wednesday, maybe to help build momentum for the weekend, although few people will know about the early opening and the teen target audience will probably wait until Friday.

Related Comparisons
Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Barbershop 2: Back in Business	2/6/04	2,711	$24.24	$8,942	$64.96
Bringing Down the House	3/7/03	2,801	$31.10	$11,104	$132.68
Brown Sugar	10/11/02	1,372	$10.74	$7,827	$27.36
Barbershop	9/13/02	1,605	$20.63	$12,852	$75.07
The Rundown	9/26/03	3,152	$18.53	$5,880	$47.59
National Security	1/17/03	2,729	$16.81	$9,825	$36.29
The Fast and the Furious	6/22/01	2,628	$40.09	$15,255	$144.51
Corky Romano	10/12/01	2,062	$9.02	$4,374	$23.98
Ladies Man	10/13/00	2,022	$5.43	$2,685	$13.59
Superstar	10/8/99	1,943	$8.91	$4,586	$30.63
A Night at the Roxbury	10/2/98	1,865	$9.61	$5,153	$30.32

Bottom Line: Jimmy Fallon should be the biggest draw for teen audiences with his first starring role in this action comedy, but Latifah’s presence and the racing car action, should help spread that audience across most younger demographics. Expect a strong opening but little legs for this ridiculous looking comedy. (Update: The e.)

Projection: $1 million on Wednesday and Thursday, $17 to 19 million over the weekend and less than $45 million overall.

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UNDER THE RADAR

Do you live in a major North American city? If so, a number of limited release movies open this weekend that may be worth checking out. If you don't live in one of the cities in which these movies open, look for some of them to hit your area sometime in the next few months.

AROUND THE BEND (Warner Independent Pictures)
THE CHILD I NEVER WAS (Strand Releasing)
GO FURTHER (Abramorama)
PRIMER (ThinkFilm)
SILENT WATERS (First Run Features)
STAGE BEAUTY (Lions Gate Films)
TARNATION (Wellspring Media)
VERA DRAKE (Fine Line Features)

Christopher Walken and Josh Lucas are a father and a son who take a road trip across the desert to uncover the truth of their family’s past when their father/grandfather, played by Michael Caine, passes away. Jordan Roberts’ comedic drama Around the Bend opens in New York and Los Angeles this weekend before an expansion to other cities over the next few weeks.

Mini-Review: Despite four generations of great actors—with 6-year-old Jonah Bobo often stealing every scene—the weak script tries too hard to be funny and too hard to be sentimental, making much of the story come across as ludicrous. Some nice moments, but overall, it’s a bit odd having Josh Lucas playing the most stable character in a movie. Rating: 5 out of 10

The Child I Never Was is a drama based on the true story of convicted child murderer Jurgen Bartsch who abused and killed four schoolboys in Germany between 1962 and 1966. Based on original letters and statements from Bartcsch, Kai S. Peck’s film opens at New York’s Quad Cinema on Friday after premiering at the Berlin International Film Festival.

Ron Mann’s documentary Go Further follows actor Woody Harrelson on a bio-fueled bus ride down the Pacific Coast Highway meeting up with people trying new methods of saving the environment, the purpose being that the transformation of the planet begins with the individuals. Go Further opens in Los Angeles on Friday.

Director Shane Carruth stars in Primer, a dark science-intensive story about two friends working on a device that ends up doing things they never expected; as they try to use it to make money, it has serious repercussions on their relationship. After winning the Sundance jury prize for dramatic feature, Primer opens in New York and Carruth’s hometown of Dallas this weekend and then expands to other cities in October. MY REVIEW; INTERVIEW

Set in 1979 Pakistan, Silent Waters is about an Islamic woman trying to deal with her son’s decision to join a group of Islamic fundamentalists, bringing back memories of a haunted past. Sabiha Sumar’s drama opens in New York at the Cinema Village on Friday.

In Stage Beauty, Billy Crudup plays Shakespearean actor Edward Kynaston, renowned for playing women’s roles at a time when women weren’t allowed on the London stage. When his dresser, played by Claire Danes, convinces the king to repeal the law, Kynaston finds himself having to play male roles. Directed by Iris’ Richard Eyre, Stage Beauty opens in New York and Los Angeles on Friday, and then expands to other cities over the next few weeks. MY REVIEW (Coming Soon!)

From the age of 11, Jonathan Canouette filmed his life in Texas living with a schizophrenic mother and a dysfunctional family; twenty years later, he edited the footage together to create the original and compelling documentary Tarnation. It opens in New York and Dallas on Wednesday after blowing audiences away at Sundance and the New York Film Festival.

Mini-Review: Like a cross between Capturing the Friedmans and Requiem for a Dream, Tarnation is a haunting and disturbing retelling of Canouette’s family history of psychosis, but mixing in music and movies from his formative years, turning it into more of a collage than a standard documentary. A stunning visual and emotional experience. Rating: 9 out of 10

Vera Drake, the latest film from British director Mike Leigh (Secret and Lies, All or Nothing) is about a housewife (Imelda Staunton) in the 50’s who secretly performs abortions on young pregnant women. Having won top honors at the Venice Film Festival last month, Vera Drake will open at the New York Film Festival on Friday and Saturday nights before beginning its theatrical release on Sunday.

Mini-Review: Another beautifully sublime British drama from Leigh starts out as a warm tale of the perfect British familyand slowly builds into something darker and more topical. Staunton’s performance as this kindly woman keeping a dark secret is heartbreaking and well worthy of an Oscar nomination. Rating: 9 out of 10

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THIS TIME LAST YEAR

A busy October weekend was headlined with Quentin Tarantino’s return to the big screen for his first movie in over five years, as the first half of his fourth film Kill Bill Vol. 1, earned over $22 million in over 3,100 theatres. That’s over half what his last film Jackie Brown earned in its theatrical release. Jack Black’s School of Rock held a sold second place with $15 million followed closely by the CGI canine family comedy Good Boy!, which made $13 million in the most theatres of any new release. Indie favorites, the Coen Brothers, returned with their attempt at a mainstream romantic comedy starring George Clooney and Catherine Zeta-Jones, Intolerable Cruelty. It made slightly less than Good Boy! for a fourth place opening. Kill Bill took a big chunk out of the business for the film adaptation of the video game House of the Dead, which opened in sixth place with under $6 million in a moderate release.

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Next week, the creators of South Park fight terrorism…with puppets…in Team America: World Police while Richard Gere, Susan Sarandon and J-Lo star in a remake of the Japanese film Shall We Dance.

Copyright 2004 Edward Douglas