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Preview and Projections for the Weekend
of October 29, 2004
By Edward Douglas -
Greetings and welcome back to the Weekend Warrior, your weekly guide
to the weekend's new movies. Tune in every Tuesday for the latest look
at the upcoming weekend, and then check back on Friday for last minute
updates based on actual theatre counts.
WEEKEND PROJECTIONS - final update 10.28.04
October comes to an end with
a Halloween weekend, where for the first time in five years, Halloween
falls
on a Sunday
night, not exactly a night conducive for older teens to go out to see
a scary movie. Even so, the two new movies in wide release likely won’t
make much of a mark against last week’s surprise horror hit The
Grudge, which will stay on top despite a significant drop-off.
On the other hand, it might be a tighter race for second place, as
both new movies have strong buzz among their potential audiences. While
the gory horror flick Saw has the advantage in number of theatres
and the Halloween, Ray has significant advance buzz for Jamie
Foxx’s performance as the popular entertainer Ray Charles. The additional
market push that Universal has given Ray, as well as the strong
draw for African American audiences, might give it a slight
advantage. (Update: Either way, it may be a very close race between
the two movies, one that not may even be decided until Monday.) On
the other hand, few moviegoers will even know about
Nicole Kidman’s
latest movie, the drama Birth,
which opens in 550 theatres, and might just miss the Top 10. Also,
on Saturday, Finding Neverland, the movie about the
J.M. Barrie's writing of "Peter Pan"
will sneak preview in 900 theatres; it's highly recommended and well
worth seeing.
|
TW |
LW |
Title |
Weekend (in millions) |
Change |
# Of Theaters |
Average |
Week |
|
1 |
1 |
The Grudge |
$21.5 |
-45% |
3,348 |
$6,422 |
2 |
|
2 |
New |
$17.5* |
N/A |
2,006* |
$8,724 |
1 |
|
|
3 |
New |
$16.6* |
N/A |
2,315* |
$7,171 |
1 |
|
|
4 |
2 |
Shark Tale |
$9.3 |
-34% |
3,381 |
$2,751 |
5 |
|
5 |
3 |
Shall We Dance? |
$5.7 |
-35% |
2,476 |
$2,302 |
3 |
|
6 |
4 |
Friday Night Lights |
$4.3 |
-39% |
3,001 |
$1,433 |
4 |
|
7 |
5 |
Team America: World Police |
$3.6 |
-44% |
2,400 |
$1,583 |
3 |
|
8 |
6 |
Ladder 49 |
$3.3 |
-39% |
2,382 |
$1,385 |
5 |
|
9 |
8 |
Taxi |
$2.3 |
-44% |
1,884 |
$1,221 |
3 |
|
10 |
10 |
I Heart Huckabees
|
$2.2 |
-22% |
901 |
$2,497 |
5 |
|
Est. Weekend Total |
Est. Avg. Drop-Off |
Est. Average PTA |
BIRTH (Fine Line Features)Starring: Nicole Kidman, Cameron Bright, Danny Huston, Lauren Bacall, Arliss Howard, Peter Stormare, Anne Heche
Directed by: Jonathan Glazer (Sexy Beast)
Genres: Drama, Mystery, Thriller
Rated R
Theatre Count: 550
Tagline: “Be careful what you wish for.”
Anna (Nicole Kidman) is trying to get over the death of her husband Sean ten years ago, but as she gets ready to remarry, a ten year old boy (Godsend‘s Cameron Bright) shows up, claiming to be the reincarnation of her dead husband, and Anna is beginning to believe him.
Birth is the second movie from filmmaker Jonathan Glazer who blew people away with his 2001 British crime drama Sexy Beast, for which Ben Kingsley got an Oscar nomination. This is quite the departure for the director, being more of a slow character drama set in New York’s Upper East Side, but his reputation from the first movie helped him get an impressive cast and a popular leading lady in Nicole Kidman, who even cut her distinctive long hair into a short bob a bit like Mia Farrow’s in Rosemary’s Baby.
Although she’s been making movies for almost fifteen years, Nicole Kidman’s career picked up in 1990 when she married Tom Cruise after they met while making Days of Thunder. Her career picked up even more after their split in 2000, with two back-to-back films that allowed her to shine as an actress, The Others and Baz Lurhman’s Moulin Rouge. She received her first Oscar nomination for the latter and then won an Oscar the following year for her stunning transformation in The Hours. Last year, the big budget Civil War drama Cold Mountain failed to get her a third, and things have been a bit up and down for the actress in recent years. First of all, her movies tend to be released out of order of when they’re made, so older movies like Birthday Girl and Dogville have popped up in the midst of the big studio movies. This means that for every successful movie like the comedy remake of the 70’s thriller The Stepford Wives, there are a bunch of indie films that no one sees. Birth might seem a bit like the thriller The Others, but it’s actually closer to her turn in Stanley Kubrick’s swan song Eyes Wide Shut with then hubby Tom Cruise. Although Cruise helped that movie open well, it was critically panned and had a lot of people scratching their heads, much like Birth will.
Kidman’s young co-star Cameron Bright played almost the exact same role—a creepy reincarnated kid--in the thriller Godsend, which opened poorly this past April, while her mother is played by Lauren Bacall, who appeared with Kidman in Lars Von Trier’s three-hour anti-American drama Dogville. That didn’t do well either. Although Kidman and Bacall are good friends, the press had a field day with a comment made by Bacall at the Venice Film Festival about Kidman not being old enough to be considered a “legend.” It probably wasn’t meant to be as catty as they made it.
Birth is being marketed like a dark thriller, but the only thing creepy about it is the nature of Nicole’s relationship with the young kid, something that has stirred up controversy among the critics that have seen it. A scene of Kidman and Bright naked in a tub got the movie booed at the Venice Film Festival, and it doesn’t seem like other moviegoers might appreciate it either. (Frankly, it’s not as big a deal as anyone is making.) Another rookie director, Dylan Kidd, who received acclaim for his indie debut Roger Dodger, tread similar ground with the recently released P.S., starring Laura Linney as a woman who gets involved with a younger man she believes to be a reincarnated ex-lover. Although her love, played by Topher Grace, is substantially older than Bright, the film hasn’t been doing very well.
Birth was originally produced by Fine Line Features, the “indie” division of New Line, but New Line picked up distribution/publicity earlier this year. Since then, they must have figured out how problematic the movie’s premise is, since it’s been bounced all over the schedule this year. After settling on an early November opening, it was then moved forward to this weekend at the last minute. Even so, the promotion for the movie has been almost nonexistent, so few people will even know it opens on Friday. Like The Human Stain last year, New Line is releasing Birth in select cities, and it might not even do well enough to warrant expansion as it only will bring in Nicole’s less discerning fans and the morbidly curious.
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Related Comparisons |
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Title |
Release Date |
Theater Count |
Previous Box Office (in millions) |
Weekend Box Office (in millions) |
Average |
Total Box Office |
|
Cold Mountain |
12/26/03 |
2,163 |
$4.51 |
$14.57 |
$6,738 |
$78.38 |
|
The Human Stain |
10/31/03 |
160 |
$1.03 |
$6,463 |
$5.38 |
|
|
The Hours |
1/17/03 |
402 |
$3.78 |
$4.64 |
$11,555 |
$41.60 |
|
Birthday Girl |
2/1/02 |
1,000 |
$2.37 |
$2,370 |
$4.92 |
|
|
The Others |
8/10/01 |
1,678 |
$14.09 |
$8,397 |
$96.08 |
|
|
Eyes Wide Shut |
7/16/99 |
2,411 |
$21.71 |
$9,005 |
$55.64 |
|
|
Godsend |
4/30/04 |
2,323 |
$6.80 |
$2,928 |
$14.33 |
|
|
Bless the Child |
8/11/00 |
2,754 |
$9.41 |
$3,417 |
$29.33 |
|
Bottom Line: Birth is likely to follow in line with some of Kidman’s poor received films like Birthday Girl, The Human Stain, and Dogville, all of which were pretty difficult. Nicole’s fans may be interested in this, but the lack of promotion and a low-key release is going to mean that even they may not know about it. Others might just be turned off by the premise.
Projection: $2 million or less its opening weekend and less than $6 million overall.
RAY (Universal Pictures)Starring: Jamie Foxx, Kerry Washington, Regina King, Clifton Powell, Harry Lennix, Terrence Dashon Howard, Larenz Tate, Richard Schiff, Aunjanue Ellis, Sharon Warren
Directed by: Taylor Hackford (An Officer and a Gentleman, Against All Odds, The Devil’s Advocate, Proof of Life)
Genres: Music, Biodrama
Rated PG-13
Theatre Count: 2,006
Tagline: “The only thing more extraordinary about the music is the man behind it: Ray Charles”
Jamie Foxx plays the late great singer-songwriter Ray Charles in a biodrama from director Taylor Hackford. As he learns to cope with his blindness, Charles’ career was plagued with drugs, discrimination and marital indiscretions, although his wife Della was there to help him through it all.
You know that Oscar season has officially begun when studios start rolling out biodramas and Ray is one that has been in development for over ten years. In the last year, as the production neared its conclusion, buzz began building for the performance by Jamie Foxx in bringing the singer-songwriter to life, and Ray Charles had given the project his approval before dying earlier this year. Although Charles had been out of the public eye for a number of years, his death strengthened the love for his music and interest in his life, so the timing of Ray’s release couldn’t be better.
Coming from the Keenan Ivory Wayans’ show “In Living Colour,” Foxx’s film career has been mostly spotty, but like Jim Carrey, he has found some success taking a dramatic route in films like Oliver Stone’s football film Any Given Sunday and Michael Mann’s 2002 biodrama Ali starring Will Smith. Foxx’s starring role in the romantic comedy Breakin’ All the Rules over the summer was met by complete lack of interest, but co-starring with Tom Cruise in the Michael Mann’s action-thriller Collateral gave audiences a better look at Foxx’s abilities as a strong dramatic actor. Despite a seemingly weak opening this past August, it went onto earn over $100 million based on solid word-of-mouth. For Ray, Foxx literally became the singer, even wearing prosthetics over his eyelids to play the part blind; many people who’ve met and worked with Charles have said that Foxx nails him. The buzz for Foxx’s performance has been growing for months to the point where he’s thought to be a shoe-in to win an Oscar or at least be nominated. Foxx was even featured on the cover of Entertainment Weekly this week, something that will drive up interest in the movie even further.
Although he’s more than capable, Foxx will not have to carry this movie alone, as he has two terrific supporting actresses in Kerry Washington, last seen in Spike Lee’s She Hate Me, and Regina King. As the two main women in Ray’s life and career, they’ll bring the sort of drama and romance that will make the movie a strong pull for women this weekend. It may seem like an odd choice for Taylor Hackford, who cut his teeth on romantic dramas like An Officer and a Gentleman and helmed the disastrous Proof of Life—which some say destroyed Meg Ryan’s marriage--but he also produced the Ricky Valens biodrama La Bamba and directed a decent documentary about Chuck Berry.
Biodramas tend not to do huge business at the box office, although Oscar buzz certainly helped Ron Howard’s A Beautiful Mind, which did very well over its entire run. The same year, Will Smith got an Oscar nomination for his portrayal of boxing star Ali, and did decent business over Christmas week, but not much after, grossing almost a third as much. A lot of biodramas tend to be limited release affairs like Kevin Kline’s De-Lovely, the Cole Porter story, Ray Charles was a huge musical star whose story will attract a large audience of even casual fans of his music. Universal already had one big hit when Eminem starred in the pseudo-biodrama 8 Mile based on his life, which had a huge opening despite a moderate release. Reviews should be mainly favorable since it’s a rare biodrama as entertaining as informative, thanks to Charles’ music and persona. That said, Universal is rolling the movie out in less than 2,000 theatres.
More importantly, Ray has a significant importance to African American audiences, a group that has not had a quality movie in a long time, having had to suffer through drivel like Soul Plane, The Cookout, and Breakin’ All the Rules, this past year. Strong movies geared towards African American audiences tend to be focused in major urban markets, and Ray is getting a moderate release in less than 2,000 theatres, but focused in big cities like New York, Detroit, Atlanta, and other places where Charles had the biggest influence. Ray may be the most anticipated film for African Americans since Barbershop, although it will likely veer towards older audiences that were around during Charles’ heyday. At almost 2 and a half hours, Ray may not be able to get as many screenings in theatres, but hopefully, Universal will make up for it by releasing more prints for the bigger theatres.
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Related Comparisons |
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Title |
Release Date |
Theater Count |
Previous Box Office (in millions) |
Weekend Box Office (in millions) |
Average |
Total Box Office |
|
Collateral |
8/6/04 |
3,188 |
$24.70 |
$7,748 |
$95.97 |
|
|
Breakin' All the Rules |
5/14/04 |
1,318 |
$5.09 |
$3,861 |
$11.83 |
|
|
Ali |
12/28/01 |
2,446 |
$20.03 |
$14.71 |
$6,014 |
$58.18 |
|
Any Given Sunday |
12/24/99 |
2,505 |
$7.05 |
$13.58 |
$5,421 |
$75.53 |
|
8 Mile |
11/8/02 |
2,470 |
$51.24 |
$20,745 |
$116.13 |
|
|
A Beautiful Mind |
1/4/02 |
1,853 |
$21.21 |
$16.57 |
$8,940 |
$170.71 |
|
Brown Sugar |
10/11/02 |
1,372 |
$10.74 |
$7,827 |
$27.36 |
|
|
Barbershop |
9/13/02 |
1,605 |
$20.63 |
$12,852 |
$75.07 |
|
Bottom Line: While Universal may be taking a chance by not opening Ray in the most theatres possible, the focused campaign will pay off as the buzz for Foxx’s performance should get a large influx of African Americans and those looking for a bit of early Oscar buzz. Although it may be too close to call come Sunday, expect Ray to pull out a strong second place and continue to make money as it expands with a significant bump as the nominations are announced.
Projection: $17 million plus opening weekend on its way to $70 to 80 million
SAW (Lions Gate Films)Starring: Tobin Bell, Cary Elwes, Danny Glover, Ken Leung, Dina Meyer, Monica Potter, Shawnee Smith, Leigh Whannell
Directed by: James Wan (feature debut)
Genres: Horror, Thriller
Rated R
Theatre Count: 2,315
Tagline: “How much blood would you shed to stay alive?”
Two men wake up in a deserted basement chained to the pipes with a dead body between them, only to learn that they’re trapped by a sadistic serial killer dubbed “Jigsaw,” to play a deadly game of kill or be killed. Apparently, this maniac has been doing this sort of thing for a awhile and he an obsessed detective (Danny Glover) is hot on his trail.
Saw is the brainchild of director James Wan and actor/co-writer Leigh Whannell, who came up with the nail-biting concept and made the movie independently on a low budget. It’s the type of horror thriller that tries to work on two levels, as an edgy psychological thriller ala Se7en and as a slasher flick ala the Scream films, both of which have significant fans considering the number of rip-off movies that have seen the light in the last few years.
Because of its strong premise mixing suspense and gore, Saw will not be relying much on its star power, probably a good thing since the movie’s main star Cary Elwes is way out of his normal element here. Elwes is best known for playing Prince Wesley in Rob Reiner’s The Princess Bride, and earlier this year he returned to his fantasy roots playing the bad guy in Ella Enchanted. His role as Dr. Lawrence Gordon in Saw is a bit of a departure, since he usually does comedy. Danny Glover is clearly the bigger name and better-known actor, but he plays a smaller part, though not much of a departure, since he’s playing a cop like he did in the four hit Lethal Weapon movies he made with Mel Gibson. Since that franchise was shelved, he’s had a quiet career, at least in movies, appearing in Jonathan Demme’s Beloved and Wes Anderson’s The Royal Tenenbams. Glover’s last movie was Queen Latifah’s comedy The Cookout, which bombed this past Labor Day. Neither Glover nor Elwes are even mentioned by name in the print or television ads, so that’s how important they are. Co-writer Leigh Whannell, who had small roles in the Matrix films, gave himself a key role in the movie as one of the guys caught in the killer’s trap.
There are many inventive ideas in Saw, like the puzzle-like nature of the killer’s death traps and a twist on a par with The Usual Suspects, but it’s going to be hard to get past the Se7en comparisons, since this killer also picks victims that he feels need to be taught a lesson like drug users and adulterers. The movie certainly seems to be building buzz among horror and genre fans and getting a push on places like MTV and shows geared towards 17 to 25 males. Other than them, there will likely few people that will be able to stomach the gore, so it might not have much appeal among mainstream audiences, older moviegoers or women, who may find it a bit too hardcore.
Saw distributor Lions Gate has been a strong purveyor of the horror genre, but haven’t had much luck with past releases geared towards the same market. Both Rob Zombie’s House of 1,000 Corpses and Cabin Fever had strong buzz among horror fans going into their opening weekends, but failed to do as well as films from the bigger studios like the Texas Chainsaw Massacre and Dawn of the Dead remakes. (They also had the name brand factor that a movie called “Saw” might ever have.) Lions Gate’s wisely moved Saw from an early October release to the plum Halloween weekend, as they’re now able to advertise it as a “Halloween event”. The last horror movie to open on a weekend where Halloween fell on a Sunday was the 1999 remake of The House on Haunted Hill, an equally eerie and gory movie that opened in more theatres, but barely made $16 million. To date, that’s the highest grossing Halloween weekend horror movie.
Saw’s commercials hail it as “the scariest movie ever,” thanks to a quote from Dark Horizons, a site based in the filmmakers’ native Australia, but like Open Water, those ads are deceptive, since it’s a pretty slow movie with low production values. With that in mind, horror and genre fans will probably dig it, and they’ll rush out to see it opening weekend, leaving little business for the weekends that follow.
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Related Comparisons |
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Title |
Release Date |
Theater Count |
Previous Box Office (in millions) |
Weekend Box Office (in millions) |
Average |
Total Box Office |
|
Taking Lives |
3/19/04 |
2,705 |
$11.46 |
$4,236 |
$32.68 |
|
|
Phone Booth |
4/4/03 |
2,481 |
$15.02 |
$6,054 |
$46.56 |
|
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Along Came a Spider |
4/6/01 |
2,530 |
$16.71 |
$6,606 |
$74.06 |
|
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Se7en |
9/22/95 |
2,441 |
$13.95 |
$5,715 |
$100.12 |
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Open Water |
8/6/04 |
2,709 |
$2.53 |
$11.41 |
$4,213 |
$30.50 |
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Cabin Fever |
9/12/03 |
2,087 |
$8.63 |
$4,137 |
$21.14 |
|
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House of 1000 Corpses |
4/11/03 |
595 |
$3.46 |
$5,816 |
$12.58 |
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The Texas Chainsaw Massacre |
10/17/03 |
3,016 |
$28.09 |
$9,315 |
$80.15 |
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The House on Haunted Hill |
10/29/99 |
2,710 |
$15.95 |
$5,886 |
$40.86 |
|
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Scream |
12/20/96 |
1,413 |
$6.35 |
$4,494 |
$103.03 |
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Bottom Line: Halloween is a great time for a strong horror movie, but Saw’s gore may be too much for all but diehard horror fans, not exactly the most reliable movie-going audience. Competition from last week’s #1 horror film The Grudge, which will appeal to more mainstream audiences, will keep Saw from making more than $15 million opening weekend. (Update: Saw is getting more theatres than initially projected, but less than the Tuesday update, so it should make more than $15 million, but not much more.)
Projection: $16 to 17 million opening weekend, but less than $45 million overall.
UNDER THE RADAR
Do you live in a major North American city? If so, there are a number of limited
release movies worth checking out. And if you don't live in one of the cities
in which these movies open, look for some of them to hit your area sometime in
the next few months. Lot of love in the air this weekend, just in time for Halloween!
Opening in Limited Release:
VOICES
OF IRAQ (Magnolia
Pictures) - last minute addition!
With the U.S. Presidential election mere days away, the candidates continue
to use the war in Iraq as the staple of their campaigns. With that in
mind, MTV producers Eric Manes and Martin Kunert distributed 150 digital
video cameras to Iraquis from different avenues of life--teachers, doctors,
policemen--and then edited and assembled the 450 hours of footage into
the documentary Voice
of Iraq. This
interesting look at the Iraqui view on the war opens in ten major cities.
(Check website for locations.)
ENDURING LOVE (Paramount
Classics)
IT’S ALL ABOUT
LOVE (Focus
Features/Strand Releasing)
Based on the novel by Ian McEwan, Enduring Love is a thriller
from director Roger Michel (Notting Hill, Changing Lanes)
about a man (Daniel Craig) terrorized
by an obsessed stalker, played by Notting Hill's Rhys Ifans,
after they both witness a horrible ballooning accident. Samantha Morton plays
the girlfriend who comes between them. Mini-Review:
A creepy Cape Fear like thriller that only gets slightly
bogged down in the amount of ideas and tangents. Still, a breakout performance
from
Daniel Craig as a man whose guilt and remorse is tearing him apart and plenty
of unexpected twists makes this unique and worthwhile. Rhys Ifans has finally
found a role that perfectly suits him. Rating: 7 out of
10
It’s All About Love is the new film from Danish director Thomas
Vinterberg, director of the first Dogme film The Celebration.
It’s
a love story set in the year 2021 starring Joaquin Phoenix trying to
visit his estranged
wife, a famous ice skater played by Clare Danes, in New York, only to
encounter people
trying to keep them apart. It also stars Oscar winning actor Sean Penn. Mini-Review:
Despite a better cast and production values, Vinterberg has made a beautifully
filmed abomination of Ed Wood proportions. A pointless exercise
with
the loosest
of
plots, it seems like it was made up
as they
went along, and although made before they went onto better things, there's
little excuse for the embarassing performances by the three principals
and no explanation why the movie needed to be set in the future. For
a far superior futuristic love story, see Code
46. Rating: 1 out of 10
Opening in New York:
FARMINGVILLE (Camino Bluff)
HOME OF THE BRAVE (Emerging
Pictures)
A SILENT LOVE (Atopia)
Winner of a special jury prize at this year’s Sundance Film Festival, Carlos
Sandoval’s documentary Farmingville takes a look at the near-fatal attack on
two Mexican immigrant workers on Long Island and how it affects the town. Opens
at New York’s Quad Cinema.
Paolo DiFlorio’s documentary Home of the Brave is the story
of Viola Gregg
Liuzza, a white Detroit woman involved in Martin Luther King’s civil rights
movement and how Klansmen shot her for her involvement. A striking story
that few people
will be aware of, the documentary opens on Wednesday at New York’s
new digital theatre Emerging Cinema.
A Silent Love tells the story of a love triangle between a
middle-aged Montreal schoolteacher, the young Mexican woman he
meets through an
Internet agency, and her mother, both of whom he brings back
to Canada. Directed
by Federigo Hidalgo, it opens at New York’s Quad Cinema.
THIS TIME LAST YEAR
With a number of horror films opening the previous two weeks, Halloween weekend was noticeably devoid of new releases. Disney’s latest animated family film, Brother Bear, opened in a single theatre in New York and Los Angeles the previous weekend, but it expanded nationwide on Saturday November 1, earning under $20 million over its two day weekend. It was just narrowly defeated for the top spot by Scary Movie 3, which had become the top October opener the previous week but took a significant hit in its second weekend. On the other hand, the remake of The Texas Chainsaw Massacre took advantage of the Halloween weekend to have a minimal drop-off and the rest of the returning movies took advantage of the lack of new movies to do decent business. The only exception was the canine comedy Good Boy! which lost most of its business to the Disney family film. Released into just 160 theatres, the drama The Human Stain, based on Philip Roth’s controversial book, had an amazing cast of Nicole Kidman, Anthony Hopkins and Ed Harris, but it earned only a million in its opening weekend on its way to less than $6 million total.
Next week, Disney and Pixar Studios are back with the superhero comedy The Incredibles! while Jude Law reprises a role made famous by Michael Caine in Alfie.
Copyright 2004 Edward Douglas