Preview and Projections for the Weekend of October 1, 2004
By Edward Douglas -

Greetings and welcome back to the Weekend Warrior, your weekly guide to the weekend's new movies. Tune in every Tuesday for the latest look at the upcoming weekend, and then check back on Friday for last minute updates based on actual theatre counts.

WEEKEND PROJECTIONS - final update 9.30.04

There’s no better way to kick off the month of October than to release the first big family film of the fall season, as the studio behind Shrek and Shrek 2 tries to continue their success with the computer animated comedy Shark Tale. With an impressive voice cast including Will Smith, Jack Black, Renee Zellweger, Angelina Jolie, Robert DeNiro and Martin Scorsese, it will take the top spot without much competition. (Update: It also will be released into over 4,000 theatres, making it the widest Fall release ever!) The other new movie, the fireman action-drama Ladder 49 starring John Travolta and The Village’s Joaquin Phoenix should get the rest of the business as well as any spillover. With two strong new movies, the market should expand a bit, so that the Top 10 may make close to $100 million for the first time in a number of months. After a decent opening weekend in moderate release, the British zombie comedy Shaun of the Dead should be able to build on the word-of-mouth as it adds more regions and moves up the charts. The drama Woman Thou Art Loosed starring Kimberly Elise will be released in over 400 theatres this weekend, which could see it making around a million dollars,although it probably won’t make enough to get into the Top 10. Also, the Jennifer Lopez/Richard Gere remake of Shall We Dance?will have sneak previews in 925 theatres nationwide on Saturday night.

TW	LW	Title	Weekend (in millions)	Change	# Of Theaters	Average	Week
1	New	Shark Tale	$53.0	N/A	4,016	$13,197	1
2	New	Ladder 49	$18.5	N/A	3,260	$5,675	1
3	1	The Forgotten	$12.0	-43%	3,144	$3,817	2
4	2	Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow	$3.6	-47%	2,721	$1,323	3
5	3	Mr. 3000	$2.7	-40%	2,239	$1,184	3
6	7	Shaun of the Dead	$2.6	-22%	645	$4,031	2
7	5	First Daughter	$2.4	-43%	2,240	$1,027	2
8	6	Cellular	$1.9	-48%	2,020	$941	4
9	4	Resident Evil: Apocalypse	$1.8	-56%	1,986	$906	4
10	8	Wimbledon	$1.7	-49%	1,700	$1,000	3
			Est. Weekend Total $100.15	Est. Avg. Drop-Off -43%		Est. Average PTA $3,328

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LADDER 49 (Touchstone Pictures)
Starring: Joaquin Phoenix, John Travolta, Jacinda Barrett, Morris Chestnut, Robert Patrick, Balthazar Getty, Jay Hernandez, Billy Burke, Tim Guinee
Directed by: Jay Russell (Tuck Everlasting, My Dog Skip)
Genres: Action, Drama
Rated PG-13
Tagline: “A bond forged by fire is never broken.”

Jack Morrison (Joaquin Phoenix) is a family man who wonders whether his new job as a fireman is rewarding enough to make it worth all of the risks. His doubts are intensified when he becomes trapped in a huge burning building, putting it all in the hands of his supportive chief (John Travolta) and fellow firemen to rescue him.

It has been a long time since there was a film about the most underappreciated of civic volunteers, the fireman. The most memorable film, Ron Howard’s Backdraft, was a big hit when in the summer of 1991, but a lot has happened since then to make firemen even more recognized by the public at large. The biggest sacrifice by firemen was seen during the 9/11 terrorist attacks on New York City’s World Trade Center, in which over 300 firemen lost their lives. After that, having firemen in a movie was a bit of a touchy subject with another movie, Peter Berg’s Truck 44, being delayed. In the meantime, the stageplay The Guys based on firemen who lost their lives on that fateful day was in and out of theatres. On the other hand, fireman has been glorified on television with hit shows like “Third Watch” and the new F/X series “Rescue Me”, showing that the public really wants to know more about them.

This makes Ladder 49 a great vehicle for Joaquin Phoenix, a young actor who impressed audiences in the last two M. Night Shyamalan thrillers, Signs and The Village. Years earlier, he was nominated for an Oscar for his role in Ridley Scott’s Gladiator playing Russell Crowe’s nemesis and also earned kudos for a similar role in Quills with Geoffrey Rush. Phoenix also appeared in the controversial military drama Buffalo Soldiers, a movie also delayed a number of years out of consideration for the soldiers fighting in the Middle East.

The movie’s better known star, John Travolta, has not exactly been in a slump, but he certainly has been laying low in the last few years. He was barely even mentioned in the ads for The Punisher back in April, and his only major film in the two years before was the 2002 military drama Basic. Travolta’s career started back in the 70’s with television shows like “Welcome Back Kotter” and hit movies like Saturday Night Fever and Grease. After a slight bump in his career from the Look Who’s Talking series, Travolta began being taken seriously as an actor when Quentin Tarantino gave him a starring role in Pulp Fiction in 1994. This was followed by two John Woo action films, Broken Arrow and Face/Off, and numerous other films. Despite his subsequent success, Travolta seems to be remembered more for his 2000 bomb Battlefield Earth than any of his other films like The General’s Daughter or 2001’s Domestic Disturbance, and because of that, Travolta has not been known for the quality of his recent films. Still, there’s no denying his impressive box office record, having starred in seven films that grossed over $100 million. There’s also some anticipation for Travolta’s next movie Be Cool, the sequel to Elmore Leonard’s Get Shorty which comes out next year.

Although the two actors may be able to draw people in, Ladder 49’s real selling point will be the story, the characters, and the amazing fire sequences which will challenge Howard’s film in terms of excitement, something quite evident from the trailer. Not everyone will be interested in seeing an animated film about fish, so Ladder 49 will be seen as a viable alternative, especially to older guys who may be more interested in the subject matter than some of the other movies in theatres.

Related Comparisons
Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
The Village	7/30/04	3,730	$50.75	$13,605	$113.03
Buffalo Soldiers	7/25/03	6	$0.03	$5,163	$0.35
Signs	8/2/02	3,264	$60.12	$18,418	$225.77
Gladiator	5/5/00	2,938	$34.82	$11,852	$186.61
Basic	3/28/03	2,876	$11.51	$4,003	$26.60
Domestic Disturbance	11/2/01	2,910	$14.03	$4,822	$45.21
Swordfish	6/8/01	2,678	$18.14	$6,776	$69.72
The General's Daughter	6/18/99	2,856	$22.33	$7,819	$102.68
Face/Off	6/27/97	2,621	$23.39	$8,924	$112.28
Broken Arrow	2/9/96	2,388	$15.58	$6,524	$70.65
Backdraft	5/24/91	1,852	$15.72	$8,488	$77.48

Bottom Line: With an interesting subject matter and a decent trailer, there’s little reason why Ladder 49 shouldn’t pick up the slack and any spillover from the weekend favorite Shark Tale, especially since it will have a stronger interest for older moviegoers.

Projection: $18 to 20 million opening weekend on its way to $60 million total.

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SHARK TALE (DreamWorks Pictures)
Starring (voices): Will Smith, Angelina Jolie, Jack Black, Renee Zellweger, Martin Scorsese, Robert DeNiro
Directed by: Eric “Bibo” Bergeron (The Road to El Dorado), Vicky Jenson (Shrek)
Genres: Computer Animated, Family, Fish
Rated PG
Tagline: “Behind every little fish is a great white lie.”

DreamWorks’ latest animated comedy is the story of a fast-talking fish named Oscar, voiced by Will Smith, who is so desperate for fame that he lies about defeating a shark to raise his status in the community. That shark is Lenny, an odd great white shark voiced by Jack Black, who goes against his family by being a vegetarian. Their encounter gives Oscar the acclaim he wants, but it also puts him on the radar of Lenny’s gangster family out for revenge.

Talking fish...sharks….obviously, this must be the sequel to Disney’s 2003 blockbuster hit, Finding Nemo, right? It’s a bit hard to believe, but DreamWorks had their own underwater comedy in the works before Disney and Pixar Films rolled out their fifth film last summer, but few could have expected that it would go onto become the highest grossing films of the year.

Like some of the best computer animated films of the last few years, Shark Tale has elements that will appeal not only to its target audience of kids, but also to their parents and other adults. The big challenge will be to convince parents to bring their kids to a movie about sharks, especially since sharks are usually connected with more menacing horror fare and many younger kids were scared by the sharks in Finding Nemo.

The reason Shrek and its sequel did so well was because they had two great comic stars providing the voices, and unlike Nemo, the stars of Shark Tale could provide a similar appeal to a wide demographic. Leading the amazing voice cast is Will Smith, who has starred in seven films to make over $100 million in the last ten years. After a successful rap career, Smith made the career to acting with the hit sitcom “The Fresh Prince of Bel-Air” and then brought his popularity to movies like Bad Boys, Independence Day and Men In Black. After a bit of lull in 2000 and 2001, Smith had back-to-back hits with Bad Boys 2 and I, Robot. Smith brings the most to the table, as his popularity extends to just about every demographic of moviegoer, making him a popular box office star. Smith’s co-star Jack Black has had recent success with last year’s family hit School of Rock and the Farrelly Brothers’ Shallow Hal. He should be able to bring in the older teen and college age audience that would usually see an animated film as kids’ stuff.

Angelina Jolie has not had a huge hit since 2001’s Tomb Raider, and her two previous 2004 films, Taking Lives and Sky Captain, didn’t do great. Still, she’s also well known, and casting her as the sexy fish that gets what she wants shouldn’t be too difficult to pull off. Her next movie is Oliver Stone’s Alexander in November. On the other hand, actress Renee Zellweger has had three critical and commercial hits in a row with Bridget Jones’ Diary, Chicago and Cold Mountain. Zellweger received Oscar nominations for all three, winning an award for her supporting role in the last of them. She has a bit more experience with comedy than Jolie from Bridget Jones, the sequel to which comes out in November, and from co-starring with former boyfriend Jim Carrey in his 2000 film Me, Myself and Irene.

The careers of Robert DeNiro and director Martin Scorsese have been irrevocably linked since Scorsese’s Mean Streets over thirty years ago, and they have made seven classic films together since. Their most popular collaboration, the gangster film Goodfellas, was likely an inspiration for their characters in Shark Tale. The shark mob also features the voices of Vincent Pastore and Michael Imperioli from the hit HBO drama The Sopranos, as well as Detective Columbo himself, Peter Falk. Recording artists Doug E. Doug and Ziggy Marley round out the ensemble cast as Rastafarian jellyfish.

Starpower
Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
I, Robot	8/16/04	3,420		$52.18	$15,257	$143.01
Men in Black II	7/5/02	3,557	$35.09	$52.15	$14,661	$192.40
Men In Black	7/4/97	3,020	$33.06	$51.07	$16,911	$250.15
The School of Rock	10/3/03	2,614		$19.62	$7,507	$81.05
Shallow Hal	11/9/01	2,771		$23.28	$8,401	$70.83
Cold Mountain	12/26/03	2,163	$4.51	$14.57	$6,738	$78.38
Chicago	2/7/03	1,841	$53.02	$10.79	$5,859	$170.68
Bridget Jones's Diary	4/13/01	1,611		$10.73	$6,662	$71.50
Goodfellas	9/21/90	1,070	$0.08	$6.37	$5,953	$46.74

The more cynical six-year olds may see this as a blatant rip-off of Pixar’s Finding Nemo, but this might also give it a familiarity that will help it appeal to those who enjoyed Disney’s blockbuster 2003 hit. On top of that, the gangster elements in Shark Tale will appeal more to older adults than kids, giving it a bit more sophistication than a G-rated Disney movie.

Besides the two Shrek films, DreamWorks haven’t had that much luck in the animated department. Their first computer animated film, 1998’s Antz, was overshadowed by Disney/Pixar’s similar A Bugs’ Life later that year, and their attempts at traditional animation have not been as successful as Disney. This was best seen by the 2000 animated film Road to El Dorado by Shark Tale director Bibo Bergeron. Things turned around for the studio in 2001, when DreamWorks loosely adapted the children’s fairy tale Shrek into a full blown animated hit featuring the voices of Eddie Murphy and Michael Myers. It grossed over $250 million and defeated Disney’s Monster’s Inc. for the first ever Oscar for animated feature. (Bergeron’s co-director also worked on the original Shrek.) Their last attempt to use star power to sell an animated film was last year’s Sinbad: Legend of the Seven Seas, which teamed Brad Pitt, Catherine Zeta-Jones and Michelle Pfeiffer for a beautifully animated box office bomb. The studio is back on track this year with the hit sequel Shrek 2, which has earned well over $400 million to become the third highest grossing movie of all time. The connections to Shrek 2 will certainly give Shark Tale a lot more cred with moviegoers, both young and old.

Shark Tale is the first family film in a long time, arguably since Harry Potter or Spider-Man 2. Because of that, kids and parents are likely itching for something they can see together, like in the slow months leading to the huge opening of Disney’s Monster’s Inc. in early November 2001. (Of course, that was also rated G.) Awareness is certainly high thanks to DreamWorks’ strong marketing campaign, which includes regular commercials during the primetime animated television comedy Father of the Pride from the makers of Shrek. Fans of computer animation will certainly be aware of the movie, but we probably won’t see an opening weekend in the realm of the last few Pixar films or Shrek 2’s $100 million opening, because even with all the stars, Shark Tale is still an unknown commodity. Opening in October will also mean less business on a Friday then it might get in the summer or winter. (Update: Opening in over 4,000 theatres, Shark Tale gets the distinction of being the widest fall release ever.)

Related Comparisons
Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Ice Age	3/15/02	3,316		$46.30	$13,966	$176.39
Shrek	5/18/01	3,587	$0.04	$42.35	$11,805	$267.65
Finding Nemo	5/30/03	3,374		$70.25	$20,821	$339.71
Monsters, Inc.	11/2/01	3,237		$63.48	$19,611	$252.89
A Bug's Life	11/25/98	2,686	$0.51	$32.83	$12,223	$162.79
Antz	10/2/98	2,449		$17.20	$7,023	$90.71
Sinbad: Legend of the Seven Seas	7/4/03	3,086	$3.18	$6.87	$2,227	$26.29
The Road to El Dorado	3/31/00	3,218		$12.85	$3,993	$50.80

Bottom Line: With the growing popularity of computer animated films in the last few years—including the #1 movies of both 2003 and 2004--Shark Tale should be able to bring in a lot of kids as well as some adults with its impressive cast of talent. This weekend, it will take a shot at breaking the October opening weekend record as well as the record for widest October release, and it should hold strong over the rest of the month, possibly retaining the #1 spot for a second week. (Update: The reviews for Shark Tale have not been very good at all, but that may do more to hurt its legs than its opening.)

Projection: $14 to 15 million opening day, $51 to 53 million for the weekend, and around $160 million total.

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UNDER THE RADAR

Do you live in a major North American city? If so, a number of limited release movies open this weekend that may be worth checking out. If you don't live in one of the cities in which these movies open, look for some of them to hit your area sometime in the next few months.

DEADLINE (Big Mouth Productions)- new addition!
DIG! (Palm Pictures)
GOING UPRIVER: THE LONG WAR OF JOHN KERRY (ThinkFilm)
I HEART HUCKABEES (Fox Searchlight Studios)
PAULY SHORE IS DEAD (Regent Releasing)
TYING THE KNOT (Roadside Attractions)
WOMAN THOU ART LOOSED (Magnolia Pictures)

In the last days of office, Illinois Governor George Ryan had to decide whether 167 inmates on death row would live or die, knowing that 13 of them may be innocent. Ryan's tough decision is the focus of Deadline, a new documentary by Kate Chevigny and Kirsten Johnson, which opens at New York' s Quad Cinema on Friday. (It aired on NBC's "Dateline" over the summer.)

Director Ondi Timoner spent seven years documenting the ups and downs of two bands, the Dandy Warhols and the Brian Jonestown Massacre, whose front men have a competitive friendship intensified by the growing success of the first band. Winner of the jury prize for documentary at this year’s Sundance Film Festival, Dig! opens in New York and L.A. on Friday.

Mini-Review: In a year full of great rock docs about legendary bands like the Ramones and the MC5, these two wannabe bands turn pretentiousness into a new art form. Although not technically great, Dig! Does eventually draw you into watching the rise of one of the bands and the downfall of the other. Rating: 7 out of 10

Going Upriver: The Long War of John Kerry is the second documentary about the Democratic presidential candidate’s tour of duty in Vietnam. With the full support of the Kerry campaign, George Butler’s film opens in 160 theatres in select areas this weekend.

Director David O. Russell (Three Kings) returns with his first movie in over five years, the quirky comedy I Heart Huckabees. Rushmore’s Jason Schwarzman plays a guy who enlists a pair of existential detectives (Lily Tomlin and Dustin Hoffman) to look into a series of coincidences. With an amazing ensemble cast that includes Jude Law, Mark Wahlberg and Naomi Watts, Russell’s latest opens in limited release this weekend. MY REVIEW (Coming Soon!)

MTV’s “Weasel” is back, directing and starring in his first comedy in a long time. In Pauly Shore is Dead, the comedian plays himself on a new career low. In order to try to regain his lost fame, he pretends to be dead, causing a media furor. Featuring appearances from many of Shore’s celebrity friends, Pauly Shore is Dead opens in New York and Los Angeles on Friday.

One of the bigger hot topics in the upcoming election is the issue of gay marriage, something explored in Jim de Seve’s new documentary Tying the Knot, which shows some real life issues faced by gay couples trying to survive in a country where their union is not considered legal. It opens in select cities this weekend and other cities in the weeks before the election.

Kimberly Elise (Beloved, The Manchurian Candidate) plays a woman trying to overcome a past of abuse and molestation in the drama Woman Thou Art Loosed, based on Bishop T.D. Jakes’ award-winning play and self-help book. Directed by Michael Schultz, Woman, Thou Art Loosed opens in over 400 theatres nationwide this weekend.

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THIS TIME LAST YEAR

Last October also kicked off with two movies with considerable star power as Denzel Washington took on Jack Black for the top spot at the box office. Opening in 400 more theatres, Denzel’s action-thriller Out of Time was the clear-cut favorite going into the weekend, but the public voted with their dollars giving Black’s School of Rock a definite win for the weekend. It topped the charts with just under $20 million, while Out of Time made just over $16 million, interrupting Denzel’s ongoing $20 million opening streak. Diane Lane’s comedy Under the Tuscan Sun and Haley Joel Osment’s Secondhand Lions held up their business, while Sofia Coppola’s Lost in Translation continued to make its way up the charts, moving to the #8 position for the weekend.

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Next week, Queen Latifah gives Jimmy Fallon a ride to remember in Taxi, Billy Bob Thornton coaches high school football in Friday Night Lights, and Hillary Duff goes all Fame on us in Raise Your Voice.

Copyright 2004 Edward Douglas