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Preview and Projections for the Weekend
of November 26, 2004
By Edward Douglas -
Greetings and welcome back to the Weekend Warrior, your weekly guide
to the weekend's new movies. Tune in every Tuesday for the latest look
at the upcoming weekend, and then check back on Friday for last minute
updates based on actual theatre counts.
High praise this week to Geoffrey Kleinman, editor of DVD
TALK, for predicting that SpongeBob SquarePants would
do as well as it did last week. Nice one!
WEEKEND PROJECTIONS - final update 11.23.04
Thanksgiving weekend is usually one of the three or four busiest
holiday movie weekends of the year, which may be why this
one looks like a bit of a logjam, with
two new movies opening into a
busy
market
place
held
in a
grip
by
Disney and a talking sea
sponge that has the kids enthralled. This is either the perfect climate
for an R-rated historical war epic by one of America’s great filmmakers
to offer something different or the absolute worst. Either way, Oliver
Stone will try to capture some of the audience that flocked to Troy over
the summer with Alexander (as in “the Great”), featuring the
impressive cast of Colin Farrell, Angelina Jolie, and
Anthony Hopkins. Then
again,
the Thanksgiving weekend tends to be all about family and holiday
movies, which is the perfect environment for Christmas with the
Kranks, a high concept comedy teaming Tim Allen and Jamie
Lee Curtis. Despite facing stronger family fare, the latter might
have of an edge to take the top spot over the weekend, even if it
doesn't do very well in its first two days. By its very nature,
Alexander will do better business Wednesday and
on Thanksgiving, and then drop-off significantly over the weekend.
On the other hand, Johnny Depp’s Finding
Neverland,
which has received much acclaim in limited release, expands nationwide
this weekend into a 513 theatres, and it should have a decent entrance
into the Top 10 closer to the bottom. Other popular art house fare
like Alexander
(no relation)
Payne’s Sideways and
the biopic Kinsey will expand into more cities this weekend;
the former may make a play for the bottom of the TOp 10.
|
TW |
LW |
Title |
3-
Day Weekend |
5-Day Weekend (in millions) |
Change |
# Of Theaters |
Average |
Week |
|
1 |
New |
$24.5 |
$31.3 |
N/A |
3,393 |
$7,221 |
1 |
|
|
2 |
2 |
The SpongeBob SquarePants Movie |
$23.0 |
$31.1 |
-28% |
3,307 |
$7,015 |
2 |
|
3 |
1 |
National Treasure |
$22.8 |
$31.9 |
-35% |
3,243 |
$7,190 |
2 |
|
4 |
New |
$22.4 |
$32.8 |
N/A |
2,445 |
$9,162 |
1 |
|
|
5 |
3 |
The Incredibles |
$21.2 |
$29.0 |
-19% |
3,453 |
$6,143 |
4 |
|
6 |
4 |
The Polar Express |
$16.8 |
$22.7 |
5% |
3,650 |
$4,848 |
3 |
|
7 |
5 |
Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason |
$7.8 |
$10.9 |
-22% |
2,473 |
$3,181 |
3 |
|
8 |
13 |
$4.2 |
$5.9 |
400% |
513 |
$8,187 |
3 |
|
|
9 |
7 |
Ray |
$3.3 |
$4.6 |
-21% |
1,500 |
$2,200 |
5 |
|
10 |
12 |
Sideways |
$2.7 |
$3.8 |
50% |
497 |
$5,433 |
6 |
|
3-Day Weekend Total |
5-Day Weekend Total |
Avg. Drop-Off |
Average PTA |
ALEXANDER (Warner
Brothers)|
The Cast |
|||||
|
Title |
Release Date |
Theater Count |
Weekend Box Office (in millions) |
Average |
Total Box Office |
|
S.W.A.T. |
8/8/03 |
3,202 |
$37.06 |
$11,575 |
$116.64 |
|
Phone Booth |
4/4/03 |
2,481 |
$15.02 |
$6,054 |
$46.56 |
|
Daredevil |
2/14/03 |
3,471 |
$45.03 |
$12,974 |
$102.54 |
|
The Recruit |
1/31/03 |
2,376 |
$16.30 |
$6,861 |
$52.79 |
|
Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow |
9/17/04 |
3,170 |
$15.58 |
$4,915 |
34.78 |
|
Taking Lives |
3/19/04 |
2,705 |
$11.46 |
$4,236 |
$32.68 |
|
Beyond Borders |
10/25/03 |
1,798 |
$2.08 |
$1,155 |
$4.43 |
|
The Human Stain |
10/31/03 |
160 |
$1.03 |
$6,463 |
$5.38 |
|
Hearts in Atlantis |
9/28/01 |
1,751 |
$9.53 |
$5,440 |
$24.19 |
|
Spartan |
3/12/04 |
832 |
$2.01 |
$2,418 |
$4.36 |
|
The Saint |
4/4/97 |
2,853 |
$16.28 |
$5,706 |
$61.34 |
This past summer, Warner Brothers released
Wolfgang Peterson’s $150 million historical epic Troy, followed
a few months later by Jerry Bruckheimer’s King Arthur for Disney.
Of the two, Troy had much stronger box office potential with
its cast of Brad Pitt, Orlando Bloom and Eric Bana, but both films were
criticized for ditching the magical aspects from the original legends,
something that killed King Arthur. You wouldn’t think that Alexander
would have that problem, but already, a big deal has been made about
how Alexander is depicted as a bisexual, something conveniently left
out from Achilles’ lifestyle from Troy. This has not boded well
with people, most notably Greece (yes, the country) who has threatened
to file suit against Stone, who has created controversy before, while
building a reputation for “embellishing the truth” for the sake of cinema.
Problem is that this type of war epic usually appeals to older guys,
and the homoerotic nature of the lead character could be a big turn
off, especially in the South and MidWest. It also might turn off the
few women that might see the movie in order to swoon over Farrell.
Thanksgiving has never been a good time to release an R-rated adult
film, with the biggest opening to date over the holiday being Unbreakable,
M. Night Shyamalan’s follow-up to The Sixth Sense, which made
almost $46 million in a few hundred more theatres than Alexander.
There probably isn’t nearly as much anticipation for Stone’s latest,
as well as a more limited audience. It also had little competition for
the older market. The last two years have seen classic examples of strong
directors trying to open a non-family film over Thanksgiving as Steven
Soderbergh’s remake of Solaris with George Clooney and Ron Howard’s
Western thriller The Missing failed to find audiences.
Alexander could be hurt more by the poor reviews that have taken
the film to task for its long running time and slow pace, and they may
be bad enough to kill off any of the advance buzz that has been building.
Stone’s film has already been delayed, apparently to edit out some of
the more graphic war scenes and overt homosexual overtones, although
the “official” word was that it was moved to Thanksgiving to give it
a “stronger presence during Oscar season”. Some may remember that Warner
Brothers released Tom Cruise’s historical epic The Last Samurai the
weekend after Thanksgiving last year. It didn’t open particularly well,
nor did it get the Oscar attention expected either. Considering the moderate
release Alexander is getting this weekend--almost 1,000 theatres
less than Troy--the powers that be at the WB must be aware of
the problems surrounding this project, but its three-hour running time
will not help much either. At least, the film is being well promoted
with related specials on the History and Discovery Channel about Alexander
and his battles.
|
Related Comparisons |
||||||
|
Title |
Release Date |
Theater Count |
Previous Box Office (in millions) |
Weekend Box Office (in millions) |
Average |
Total Box Office |
|
King Arthur |
7/9/04 |
3,086 |
$8.43 |
$15.19 |
$4,924 |
$51.80 |
|
Troy |
5/14/04 |
3,411 |
$46.87 |
$13,739 |
$133.23 |
|
|
The Last Samurai |
12/5/03 |
2,908 |
$24.27 |
$8,346 |
$107.46 |
|
|
Braveheart |
5/26/95 |
2,035 |
$2.64 |
$12.91 |
$6,344 |
$75.59 |
|
Gladiator |
5/5/00 |
2,938 |
$34.82 |
$11,852 |
$186.61 |
|
|
Any Given Sunday |
12/24/99 |
2,505 |
$7.05 |
$13.58 |
$5,421 |
$75.53 |
|
Natural Born Killers |
8/26/94 |
1,510 |
$11.17 |
$7,397 |
$50.28 |
|
|
JFK |
12/20/91 |
1,164 |
$5.22 |
$4,485 |
$70.41 |
|
CHRISTMAS WITH THE KRANKS (Sony
Pictures)|
Related Comparisons |
||||||
|
Title |
Release Date |
Theater Count |
Previous Box Office (in millions) |
Weekend Box Office (in millions) |
Average |
Total Box Office |
|
Joe Somebody |
12/21/01 |
2,506 |
$3.55 |
$1,418 |
$22.74 |
|
|
The Santa Clause 2 |
11/1/02 |
3,350 |
$29.01 |
$8,659 |
$139.14 |
|
|
The Santa Clause |
11/11/94 |
2,183 |
$19.32 |
$8,850 |
$144.83 |
|
|
Freaky Friday |
8/8/03 |
2,954 |
$10.90 |
$22.20 |
$7,516 |
$110.22 |
|
Bad Santa |
11/28/03 |
2,005 |
$4.51 |
$12.29 |
$6,131 |
$59.43 |
|
Elf |
11/7/03 |
3,337 |
$31.11 |
$9,324 |
$172.70 |
|
|
102 Dalmatians |
11/22/00 |
2,704 |
$19.89 |
$7,355 |
$66.90 |
|
|
101 Dalmatians |
11/29/96 |
2,794 |
$33.50 |
$11,990 |
$60.83 |
|
|
Home Alone 2 |
11/20/92 |
2,222 |
$31.13 |
$14,010 |
$172.70 |
|
|
Home Alone |
11/16/90 |
1,202 |
$17.08 |
$14,210 |
$285.76 |
|
|
Christmas Vacation |
12/1/89 |
1,744 |
$11.75 |
$6,737 |
$71.30 |
|
FINDING NEVERLAND (Miramax
Films)|
Related Comparisons |
||||||
|
Title |
Release Date |
Theater Count |
Previous Box Office (in millions) |
Weekend Box Office (in millions) |
Average |
Total Box Office |
|
Secret Window |
3/12/04 |
3,018 |
$18.24 |
$6,043 |
$47.78 |
|
|
Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl |
7/11/03 |
3,269 |
$24.00 |
$46.63 |
$14,264 |
$305.41 |
|
From Hell |
10/19/01 |
2,305 |
$11.32 |
$4,911 |
$31.60 |
|
|
Blow |
4/6/01 |
2,249 |
$12.44 |
$5,535 |
$52.94 |
|
|
Edward Scissorhands |
12/14/90 |
1,080 |
$6.33 |
$5,861 |
$53.98 |
|
|
Peter Pan |
12/26/03 |
2,813 |
$3.67 |
$11.14 |
$3,960 |
$46.40 |
|
Return To Neverland |
2/15/02 |
2,605 |
$15.62 |
$5,997 |
$48.41 |
|
|
Hook |
12/13/91 |
2,197 |
$3.54 |
$13.52 |
$6,154 |
$119.65 |
|
A Beautiful Mind |
1/4/02 |
1,853 |
$21.21 |
$16.57 |
$8,940 |
$170.71 |
|
Shakespeare in Love |
1/22/99 |
655 |
$22.25 |
$3.63 |
$5,542 |
$100.24 |
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