Preview and Projections for the Weekend of June 4, 2004
By Edward Douglas -

Greetings and welcome back to the Weekend Warrior, your weekly guide to the weekend's new movies. Tune in every Tuesday for the latest look at the upcoming weekend, and then check back on Friday for any last minute updates.

WEEKEND PROJECTIONS - final update 6.03.04

After two record-breaking weekends, the generally slow month of June kicks off with the third adaptation of J. K. Rowlings’ best-selling series of books starring the young wizard, Harry Potter. What a way to start the month! Despite its unconventional new director (Y Tu Mama Tambien’s Alfonso Cuaron) and new headmaster Dumbledore, Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban will bring back most of the moviegoers who enjoyed the exploits of Harry, Hermione and Ron in the first two movies. The two Memorial Day box office smashes, Roland Emmerich’s The Day After Tomorrow and Shrek 2, should have significant drop-offs as they give way for a movie adapting what many consider to be the best book in the series. Look for Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban to set a new record for the month and take back some of the ground it lost to other movies in the last year and a half.

TW	LW	Title	Weekend (in millions)	Change	# Of Theaters	Average	Week
1	New	Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban	$94.5	N/A	3,855	$24,514	1
2	1	Shrek 2	$37.0	-49%	4,131	$8.957	3
3	2	The Day After Tomorrow	$28.0	-59%	3,444	$8,130	2
4	3	Troy	$6.5	-46%	2,750	$2,364	4
5	4	Raising Helen	$6.3	-43%	2,21	$2,315	2
6	5	Soul Plane	$3.2	-44%	1,566	$2,043	2
7	7	Mean Girls	$2.7	-45%	1,817	$1,486	6
8	6	Van Helsing	$2.5	-53%	2,055	$1,217	5
9	8	Man on Fire	$1.0	-56%	683	$909	7
10	9	Super Size Me	$.9	-12%	205	$4,400	5
			Est. Weekend Total $182.55	Est. Avg. Drop-Off -45%		Est. Average PTA $5,664

---

HARRY POTTER AND THE PRISONER OF AZKABAN (Warner Brothers)
Starring: Daniel Radcliffe, Emma Watson, Rupert Grint, Gary Oldman, David Thewlis, Peter Best, David Bradley, Julie Christie, Robbie Coltrane, Alfie Enoch, Tom Felton, Pam Ferris, Dawn French, Michael Gambon, Jimmy Gardner, Richard Griffiths, Joshua Herdman, Matt Lewis, Hugh Mitchell, Devon Murray, Katharine Nicholson, Chris Rankin, Alan Rickman, Fiona Shaw, Maggie Smith, Timothy Spall, Jim Tavare, Julie Walters, Jamie Waylett, Paul Whitehouse, Emma Thompson
Directed by: Alfonso Cuaron (Y Tu Mama Tambien, Great Expectations, The Little Princess)
Rated PG
Tagline: “Something Wicked This Way Comes.”

The start of Harry Potter’s third year at Hogwarts School of Witchcraft and Wizardry is threatened by the escape from Azkaban Prison of Sirius Black (Gary Oldman), Voldemort’s murderous henchman who betrayed Harry’s parents, getting them killed. Along with this pals Hermione and Ron Weasley, Harry must try to stay one step ahead of Black while dealing with the new school year and the horrifying Dementors, Azkaban’s jail keepers that now surround the school.

Based on J.K. Rowlings’ third book, Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban is considered by many fans of the series to be the best book in the series. The franchise has been kept alive and well in the movies with two strong movie adaptations directed by Christopher Columbus (Home Alone). Columbus steps aside to produce the third chapter, allowing Mexican director Alfonso Cuaron to step in as director, but the consistency should be maintained because the movie is adapted for the big screen by Steven Kloves, the screenwriter of the first two movies.

The first movie, Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone, opened in November 2001, a few weeks before Christmas and a few months after 9/11, setting a new three-day box office record (at the time) with a $90 million opening weekend. Over the holidays and the months that followed, the movie continued to get new and repeat business as the fans of the books gave their thumbs up to the excellent adaptation. While many enjoyed the second movie, Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets, as much, there’s no question that the story from the second book wasn’t quite as strong. The characters were already established though, and those who enjoyed the first movie went to see the second opening weekend, although it didn’t get nearly as much repeat business after opening weekend. The first movie grossed over $300 million, but the second earned less than $260 million.

Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets	11/15/02	3,682		$88.36	$23,997	$258.90
Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone	11/16/01	3,672		$90.29	$24,590	$316.82

The two movies made a household name of Daniel Radcliffe, Emma Watson and Rupert Grint, who successfully brought J. K. Rowlings’ Harry Potter, Hermione Grainger and Ron Weasley to life. It almost doesn’t matter who else Is in the movie as long as the three young stars that audiences have grown to love are back in place. That said, many of the other principle Hogwarts players are back, including Robbie Coltrane as Hagrid the groundskeeper, Alan Rickman as the nasty Professor Snape, and veteran actress Maggie Smith as Professor McGonagall, each of them playing a larger part in the third chapter than the previous two. The only actor not returning is Richard Harris, who played the school’s headmaster, Professor Aldus Dumbledore, in the first two movies but sadly died before being able to make a third.

A number of respected actors join the returning cast, including Gary Oldman as Sirius Black, Emma Thompson as the loopy Professor Trelawney, and lesser-known Brit actor Timothy Spall as…well, that might be telling too much.

Gary Oldman first got attention for his wild portrayal of rock Sid Vicious in Alex Cox’s Sid and Nancy, and he quickly earned a reputation as a talented actor. In the last few years, he has appeared in big blockbusters like Hannibal, the sequel to The Silence of the Lambs, as well as playing the title character in the 1992 hit, Bram Stoker’s Dracula. Oldman tends to play the bad guy, as he did in movies like Air Force One and The Fifth Element, so he should bring suitable menace to the role of Sirius Black. Oldman will also be taking on the role of a young police lieutenant named James Gordon in next summer’s Batman movie, Batman Begins.

Emma Thompson had received multiple Oscar nominations for her roles in Howard’s End and The Remains of the Day, before finally winning her first Oscar, as a screenwriter for the Ang Lee directed version of Jane Austen’s Sense and Sensibilities. Last year, Thompson received a number of kudos and critical nods for her supporting role in Richard Curtis’ Love Actually and received SAG and Golden Satellite nominations for her performance in the HBO mini-series “Angels in America”. A regular of British indies like Secrets & Lies, Life is Sweet and All or Nothing, Spall might be better known in the States as the roadie in Mark Wahlberg’s Rock Star and his appearance in Tom Cruise’s The Last Samurai. Spall will continue his run of children’s books by appearing in December’s Lemony Snicket’s A Series of Unfortunate Incidents.

Gary Oldman/Emma Thompson/Timothy Spall

Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Hannibal	2/9/01	3,230		$58.00	$17,958	$164.97
Air Force One	7/25/97	2,919		$37.13	$12,720	$172.65
Bram Stoker's Dracula	11/13/92	2,491		$30.52	$12,252	$82.49
Love Actually	11/7/03	576		$6.89	$11,955	$59.08
Sense and Sensibility	2/9/96	952	$21.88	$2.40	$2,521	$42.99
The Last Samurai	12/5/03	2,908		$24.27	$8,346	$107.46
Rock Star	9/7/01	2,525		$6.02	$2,384	$16.99

Director Alfonso Cuaron might seem like a strange choice to follow in Columbus’ footsteps, considering that his last movie was the sexually explicit coming-of-age movie, Y Tu Mama Tambien. That was a breakout hit for Cuaron, one of Mexico’s finest exports, who had already directed a number of youth-based films, as well as reworking literary classics like his most successful film, Great Expectations with Ethan Hawke and Gwyneth Paltrow. The latest Harry Potter movie has more than a few things in common with one of Cuaron’s earliest films The Little Princess, about a girl attending a boarding school with a harsh headmistress after the death of her father. Chances are that he was selected for his ability to work with young actors and create believable relationships between them, something that plays a key role in the third book as Harry, Ron and Hermione start to approach puberty.

Alfonso Cuaron:

Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Y Tu Mama Tambien	4/5/02	180	$1.79	$1.18	$6,581	$13.62
Great Expectations	1/30/98	1,867		$9.59	$5,137	$26.33
A Little Princess	5/19/95	1,342	$0.05	$2.04	$1,520	$10.01

The “threequel*” is a strange beast. Plenty of movies have done well enough over the years to warrant a second sequel, usually a sure sign of a successful franchise. On the one hand, you have series like The Lord of the Rings, which was able to expand on its business with each successive chapter or the Batman movies, which were able to sustain their business despite changes in cast and director. Then, there are movies like the third Jurassic Park movie, which faltered when director Steven Spielberg was replaced by Joe Johnston, but still earned $80 million in its first five days. With Prisoner of Azkaban, you also must contend with the stigma of a family/kids sequel like Spy Kids, which saw a sharp decline for the second movie, but then saw the franchise salvaged by the 3D gimmick of the third. The second Harry Potter movie only had a slight drop and with the third movie being based on what many consider to be the best book, it should be able to sustain the opening weekend of the previous movies, possibly even expanding on it with more repeat business than the last movie.

Threequels*:

Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Spy Kids 3-D: Game Over	7/25/03	3,344		$33.42	$9,993	$111.76
Spy Kids 2: The Island of Lost Dreams	8/9/02	3,307	$8.30	$16.71	$5,053	$84.94
Spy Kids	3/30/01	3,104		$26.55	$8,552	$106.26
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King	12/19/03	3,703	$51.47	$72.62	$19,614	$345.33
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers	12/20/02	3,622	$40.04	$61.50	$16,980	$337.26
The Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Rings	12/21/01	3,359	$27.91	$47.21	$14,055	$304.11
Jurassic Park III	7/20/01	3,434	$30.60	$50.77	$14,785	$181.17
The Lost World	5/23/97	3,281	$2.57	$72.13	$21,984	$229.09
Jurassic Park	6/12/93	2,404		$50.16	$20,865	$356.78
Batman Forever	6/16/95	2,842		$52.78	$18,571	$184.03
Batman Returns	6/19/92	2,644		$47.72	$18,048	$162.83
Batman	6/23/89	2,194		$42.71	$19,467	$251.19

(*As far as I can tell, I’m still the only writer using this term despite my many attempts to make it part of the box office vernacular)

A few factors play into this chapter that weren’t present for the first two movies. Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban is opening during the summer, as opposed to the mid-November release of the first two movies. Although school is still in session in many areas, there is a better chance that people will rush out to see it on opening day and weekend in June then they might in November, as proven with the impressive opening days of Shrek 2 and Day After Tomorrow.

Azkaban is opening after those two huge back-to-back blockbusters that have dominated at the box office. Since both of those movies will still be doing well in theatres, Harry Potter may have a hard time fighting to get screens away from them, something that the previous Harry Potter movies did not have to worry about. With almost 6,000 theatres and tens of thousand screens in North America, Warner Brothers shouldn’t have a problem getting enough screens to cover the demand, but it may not enough to break any records.

Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban is rated PG just like the first two movies, but the story is much darker with many elements that might be too scary for the youngest of Potter fans. It is also a far more complex and sophisticated story, something that might be appreciated more by the teens and adult fan. Because of this, the relative age for the Harry Potter movies should go up with Prisoner of Azkaban, something that should help more than hurt its opening weekend.

Warner Brothers has been promoting the movie everywhere in the last few months. The debut of the first movie on ABC was hosted by the three young actors, and those who watched it were given a special ten-minute sneak preview of the new movie (available at the movie's preview page on CS). It's likely that Warners will not have to do too much more, since the fans of the books, the characters and the actors are all ready to rush out in full force to see the movie opening weekend. Like Shrek 2 a few weeks back, Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban will be opening against no other new movies making it the optimum choice for moviegoers of all ages this weekend. Others things working in its favor include the release of the fifth book last summer as well as a shorter running time.

Since there are few true precedents that can be applied to the Harry Potter series, this may be one of the harder movies to predict this summer. Chances are that anyone disappointed by the second movie’s story will still go see the third. Despite the amount of big movies already in theatres, Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban will do slightly better than the previous movies in its opening weekend and significantly better than the last chapter over the course of the summer. As one of the most anticipated movies of the year, one shouldn’t be surprised if it becomes the third blockbuster in a row, earning close to $95 million opening weekend on its way to $300 million or more.

---

UNDER THE RADAR

Do you live in a major North American city? If so, there are a number of limited release movies worth checking out. And if you don't live in one of the cities in which these movies open, look for some of them to hit your area sometime in the next few months.

DONNIE DARKO: THE DIRECTOR’S CUT (Newmarket Films)
THE CORPORATION (Zeitgeist Films)
THE STORY OF THE WEEPING CAMEL (ThinkFilm)

After earning $10 million on DVD, Richard Kelly’s cult classic Donnie Darko, starring The Day After Tomorrow’s Jake Gyllenhaal, will be re-released in theatres this summer as an extended “Director’s Cut” with twenty minutes of extra footage. Taking place in the late 80s, the movie is about a strange loner coerced by an evil rabbit named Frank to commit acts of violence before the world ends in 28 days. Donnie Darko: The Director’s Cut opens in the Seattle area on Wednesday after debuting at the Seattle International Film Festival last week.

Following in the footsteps of Michael Moore, Mark (Manufacturing Consent) Achbar’s new documentary The Corporation, based on the book by Joel Bakan, takes an in-depth look into the inner workings of the American corporation and its impact on the country. Michael Moore himself makes an appearance in this Sundance audience award-winning documentary debuting in San Francisco this weekend before spreading across California and the rest of the country in June and July.

Story of the Weeping Camel is the touching story of a group of nomadic Mongolian shepherds. After helping with the birth of a rare newborn camel calf that has been rejected by its mother, two young boys go on a quest to find a musician who could touch the heart of the mother camel and woo her into accepting her offspring. The Story of the Weeping Camel opens in New York on Friday.

---

THIS TIME LAST YEAR
(Note: Last year was so different from this on that my attempt to catch up by skipping a week has messed everything up. Because of that, this weekend coincides both with the weekend after Memorial Day as well as the first weekend in June.)

The weekend after Memorial Day, three new movies hit theatres, including the latest from Disney and Pixar Studios, Finding Nemo, featuring the voices of Albert Brooks and Ellen Degeneres. It set a new record for Pixar Studios as well as for animated films with its weekend take of $70 million in 3,374 theatres, doubling that of Jim Carrey’s Memorial Day hit, Bruce Almighty, which dropped 45% in its second weekend. Mark Wahlberg, Ed Norton and Charlize Theron headlined the modern-day remake of the British classic, The Italian Job, an action-heist movie that made over $19 million its opening weekend despite heavy competition. The retro horror movie Wrong Turn threw a group of kids into a deserted setting with deadly cannibals, although it only made just over $5 million. The Matrix Reloaded has the biggest drop of the weekend, a 61% nosedive from its Memorial Day weekend.

Like this year, only one new movie came out the first weekend in June last year. That movie, 2 Fast 2 Furious, the sequel to the 2001 hit, The Fast and the Furious, earned just over $50 million on the weekend, a bigger opening than the original. This allowed it to narrowly defeat Finding Nemo’s second week gross of $46 million. Bruce Almighty and The Italian Job were able to maintain their business, while the British soccer comedy Bend It Like Beckham returned to the Top 10 with just under a million dollars.

---

Next week, The Chronicles of Riddick stars Vin Diesel as the character introduced in the 2000 sci-fi film, Pitch Black; Nicole Kidman and Matthew Broderick try to out The Stepford Wives, a comedy remake of the 70’s thriller; and the cartoon character Garfield gets his first feature film, voiced by Bill Murray.

Copyright 2004 Edward Douglas