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Preview and Projections for the
Weekend of July 30, 2004
By Edward Douglas -
Greetings and welcome back to the Weekend
Warrior, your weekly guide to the weekend's new movies. Tune in
every Tuesday for the latest look at the upcoming weekend, and then
check back on Friday for any last minute updates.
WEEKEND PROJECTIONS
- final update 7.29.04
Whether this weekend is the last weekend
of July or the first weekend of August may be determined by the
release of M.
Night Shyamalan’s latest movie, The Village, his third movie
to kick off the month of August. The 19th Century dramatic
thriller takes a different approach to his last few movies, but
Shyamalan’s name and involvement may be all it needs to have a
huge opening weekend. The impressive ensemble cast featuring Joaquin
Phoenix and Adrien Brody won’t hurt. Direct competition for older
audiences comes from Denzel Washington whose last movie, Man
on Fire, shocked the experts when it defeated Jennifer Garner’s 13
Going on 30. His latest is a remake of Frank Sinatra’s The
Manchurian Candidate, teaming him with Meryl Streep and his Philadelphia director
Jonathan Demme. A difficult political thriller, it will be more
of a draw to older adults who saw the original, but it may have
difficulty topping $20 million. The only real winner for the weekend
will be producer Scott Rudin, who produced both movies. Harold & Kumar
Goes to White Castle expands on the stoner comedy giving it
an Asian flavor with relative unknowns John Cho and Kal Penn on
a comedy quest for White Castle burgers. Despite decent early buzz,
it may be hard to have a break out weekend with so many other choices.
The live action version of the Saturday morning sci-fi puppet show, The
Thunderbirds, has the least competition for the kids’ markets
but with minimal promotion and low expectations, this Spy Kids rip-off
may not get very much attention this weekend.
|
TW |
LW |
Title |
Weekend (in millions) |
Change |
# Of Theaters |
Average |
Week |
|
1 |
New |
$55.5 |
N/A |
3,730 |
$14,879 |
1 |
|
|
2 |
1 |
The Bourne Supremacy |
$25.5 |
-52% |
3,200 |
$7,969 |
2 |
|
3 |
New |
$19.7 |
N/A |
2,867 |
$6,871 |
1 |
|
|
4 |
New |
$11.9 |
N/A |
2,135 |
$5,574 |
1 |
|
|
5 |
2 |
I, Robot |
$11.0 |
-49% |
3,204 |
$3,433 |
3 |
|
6 |
4 |
Spider-Man 2 |
$8.5 |
-44% |
3,500 |
$2,429 |
5 |
|
7 |
New |
$8.0 |
N/A |
2,055 |
$3,893 |
1 |
|
|
8 |
3 |
Catwoman |
$6.5 |
-62% |
3,117 |
$2,085 |
2 |
|
9 |
5 |
A Cinderella Story |
$4.7 |
-40% |
2,350 |
$2,000 |
3 |
|
10 |
6 |
Anchorman |
$4.0 |
-43% |
2,600 |
$1,538 |
4 |
|
Est. Weekend Total |
Est. Avg. Drop-Off |
Est. Average PTA |
THE VILLAGE (Touchstone
Pictures)|
M. Night Shyamalan |
||||||
| Title |
Release Date |
Theater Count |
Previous Box Office (in millions) |
Weekend Box Office (in millions) |
Average |
Total Box Office |
|
Signs |
8/2/02 |
3,264 |
$60.12 |
$18,418 |
$225.77 |
|
|
Unbreakable |
11/22/00 |
2,708 |
$15.90 |
$30.33 |
$11,202 |
$94.92 |
|
The Sixth Sense |
8/6/99 |
2,161 |
$26.68 |
$12,346 |
$293.50 |
|
| The Village People | ||||||
|
Title |
Release Date |
Theater Count |
Previous Box Office (in millions) |
Weekend Box Office (in millions) |
Average |
Total Box Office |
|
Brother Bear |
11/1/03 |
3,030 |
$0.40 |
$19.40 |
$6,404 |
$84.45 |
|
Gladiator |
5/5/00 |
2,938 |
$34.82 |
$11,852 |
$186.61 |
|
|
8MM |
2/26/99 |
2,370 |
$14.25 |
$6,013 |
$36.28 |
|
|
The Pianist |
3/28/03 |
773 |
$21.14 |
$2.46 |
$3,177 |
$32.52 |
|
Summer of Sam |
7/2/99 |
1,536 |
$5.99 |
$3,900 |
$19.13 |
|
|
The Thin Red Line |
1/15/99 |
1,528 |
$3.07 |
$9.77 |
$6,394 |
$36.39 |
|
Holes |
4/18/03 |
2,331 |
$16.30 |
$6,993 |
$67.38 |
|
|
Heartbreakers |
3/23/01 |
2,750 |
$11.80 |
$4,291 |
$40.28 |
|
|
Galaxy Quest |
12/25/99 |
2,412 |
$7.01 |
$2,906 |
$70.26 |
|
|
Tuck Everlasting |
10/11/02 |
1,185 |
$5.27 |
$4,446 |
$19.14 |
|
|
A.I. Artificial Intelligence |
6/29/01 |
3,242 |
$29.35 |
$9,054 |
$78.56 |
|
Because
of Shyamalan’s name
and reputation, The Village is already considered one of the summer’s
big blockbusters despite its rather modest $60 million budget, and in kind,
Touchstone has given it one of the biggest promotional campaigns of the
year. The trailers for the movie have been particularly effective, as have
the commercials, as they’ve been shown non-stop for the last two months.
Earlier this year, M. Night appeared during ABC’s airings of The Sixth
Sense and Unbreakable to show clips and behind the scenes stuff
from the movie and to further build up expectations. Last week, M. Night
was the subject of a Regal Cinemas special event broadcast to theatres
across the country, as he was interviewed by Joel Siegel. The Village’s
oddest piece of promotion might be the recent Sci-Fi Channel documentary/expose
on the director that was meant to reveal all of his hidden secrets. In
actuality, it was an elaborate hoax to promote the movie with the full
cooperation of Shyamalan, revealed by the network before it aired.
Despite all that promotion, Shyamalan has worked hard to keep the movie’s story
tightly under wraps, something that may drive his fans nuts while building
on the buzz. Last year, the movie’s twist ending was leaked on the internet,
kicking off rumors that Shymalan reshot the ending to throw the rumors off,
but even if this is true, it shouldn’t matter as it will get even more interest.
Although the setting may not seem like the basis for a summer blockbuster,
but The Village offers something different from the usual summer fare
that could appeal to the widest demographic of moviegoers with younger audiences
being attracted to the scares and older audiences enjoying the time period
and setting.
After a weak year of money-losing ventures, Disney really needs a hit, so they’ll make sure that they have the supply to meet the demand by releasing Shyamalan’s movie in as many theatres as possible, possibly ending up in close to 3,500 theatres. Opening in a busier weekend with more direct competition than Signs and without the star power, The Village may have a harder time pulling in another $60 million opening weekend, but as the weekend’s biggest draw, opening in over 3,700 theatres it should be able to fend off the competition earning around $55 million.
HAROLD &
KUMAR GO TO WHITE CASTLE (New Line Cinema)
Starring: John Cho, Kal Penn, Anthony Anderson, Dan Bochart, Steve
Braun, Brooke D'Orsay, Ethan Embry, Paula Garcés, Luis Guzmán, Neil
Patrick Harris, Jon Hurwitz, Sandy Jobin-Bevans, Kate Kelton, Jamie
Kennedy, David Krumholtz, Bobby Lee, Christopher Meloni, Ryan Reynolds,
Hayden Schlossberg, Siu Ta, Eddie Kaye Thomas, Dov Tiefenbach, Robert
Tinkler, Fred Willard, Gary Anthony Williams
Directed by: Danny Leiner (Dude, Where’s My Car?)
Rated R
Tagline: “Fast Food. High Times.”
Two losers named Harold and Kumar have a grand adventure when they
get the craving for White Castle burgers on a Friday night. The problem
is trying to find a White Castle, a quest that has them meeting all
sorts of strange characters and getting into all sorts of trouble.
In a year where high concept comedies have been king, the time seems
right for a low-brow buddy comedy to entice those who don’t like thinking
too much when they watch movies. Unlike the Dumb and Dumbers
and the Bill and Teds, Harold & Kumar takes an ethnic
turn with two unlikely stars in John Cho and Kal Penn. Apparently,
John Cho is the Asian guy from the American Pie movies—no,
I don’t remember him either—and Kal Penn was that Indian guy in Malibu’s
Most Wanted and National Lampoon’s Van Wilder. Neither
had even close to top billing in either movie, but even that fact
is being used to comedic effect in promoting the movie. What these
two unlikely candidates do bring to the table is that they’ve made
a dumb comedy specifically for the Asian and Indian markets that have
been sorely overlooked by Hollywood in the last few years. Those markets
may end up making this a surprise hit as they flock to see these no-names.
(Incidentally, Cho also starred in the indie hit Better Luck Tomorrow,
an Asian high school crime drama that created a lot of buzz among
the young Asian community with a heavy Email campaign.) By tackling
the stereotypes and the prejudices head on, Cho and Penn could very
well end up becoming the Asian Bill and Ted.
| That Asian and That Indian Guy | ||||||
|
Title |
Release Date |
Theater Count |
Previous Box Office (in millions) |
Weekend Box Office (in millions) |
Average |
Total Box Office |
|
Better Luck Tomorrow |
4/25/03 |
380 |
$1.17 |
$1.03 |
$2,714 |
$3.80 |
|
American Wedding |
8/1/03 |
3,172 |
$33.37 |
$10,520 |
$104.35 |
|
|
American Pie 2 |
8/10/01 |
3,063 |
$45.12 |
$14,729 |
$145.10 |
|
|
American Pie |
7/9/99 |
2,507 |
$18.71 |
$7,463 |
$101.74 |
|
|
Malibu's Most Wanted |
4/18/03 |
2,503 |
$12.62 |
$5,041 |
$34.31 |
|
|
National Lampoon's Van Wilder |
4/5/02 |
2,022 |
$7.30 |
$3,612 |
$21.01 |
|
|
Dude, Where's My Car? |
12/15/00 |
2,087 |
$13.85 |
$6,634 |
$46.72 |
|
| Dumb Stoner Comedies | |||||
|
Title |
Release Date |
Theater Count |
Weekend Box Office (in millions) |
Average |
Total Box Office |
|
The Girl Next Door |
4/9/04 |
2,148 |
$6.00 |
$2,795 |
$14.59 |
|
Eurotrip |
2/20/04 |
2,512 |
$6.71 |
$2,672 |
$17.72 |
|
Stuck on You |
12/12/03 |
3,003 |
$9.41 |
$3,134 |
$33.45 |
|
Dumb and Dumberer: When Harry Met Lloyd |
6/13/03 |
2,609 |
$10.85 |
$4,157 |
$26.21 |
|
Road Trip |
5/19/00 |
2,530 |
$15.48 |
$6,119 |
$68.53 |
|
Half Baked |
1/16/98 |
1,701 |
$6.94 |
$4,080 |
$17.37 |
|
Good Burger |
7/25/97 |
1,887 |
$7.06 |
$3,741 |
$23.69 |
|
Dumb and Dumber |
12/16/94 |
2,447 |
$16.36 |
$6,686 |
$127.18 |
|
Bill and Ted's Bogus Journey |
7/19/91 |
1,620 |
$10.24 |
$6,321 |
$37.54 |
|
Bill and Ted's Excellent Adventure |
2/17/89 |
1,196 |
$6.17 |
$5,159 |
$39.92 |
THE MANCHURIAN
CANDIDATE (Paramount Pictures)
Starring: Denzel Washington, Meryl Streep, Liev Schreiber, Jon Voight,
Kimberly Elise, Jeffrey Wright, Ted Levine
Directed by: Jonathan Demme (Beloved, The Truth About Charlie,
Philadelphia, Married to the Mob, The Silence of the
Lambs)
Rated R
Tagline: “Everything is under control.”
Seventeen years after the Gulf War, Captain Ben Marco (Denzel Washington)
is haunted by dreams revolving his platoon mate Raymond Shaw (Shreiber),
a war hero that is being groomed as the Vice Presidential candidate
by his mother, Senator Eleanor Shaw (Meryl Streep). As he tries to get
answers, Marco learns of a political conspiracy that involves the Manchurian
Global corporation and their devious plans for Shaw if he wins the election.
Based on Richard Condon’s best selling novel, this is the second time
The Manchurian Candidate has been adapted for the big screen,
the first time as a vehicle for Frank Sinatra in 1962. Although not
a commercial success, it became a favorite among film buffs and paved
the way for many political thrillers like Three Days of the Condor
and The Parallax View, which thrived on the paranoid climate
created by the Vietnam and Cold Wars.
This time, the movie has been adapted for superstar actor Denzel Washington,
who stars in his third movie in the last year. There’s little need to
recap Washington’s career, but other than last year’s Out of Time,
all of his last few movies have grossed over $70 million, showing a
definite consistency in the number of fans who go to see his movies,
especially after winning his much-deserved Oscar in 2002 for Training
Day. His last movie, Man on Fire, was also a remake made
by a director he had worked with in the past, and it did well enough
to take the top spot from Jennifer Garner’s romantic comedy 13 Going
on 30, which was the weekend favorite. As a political thriller,
The Manchurian Candidate harks back to Washington’s earlier work
like Crimson Tide, Courage Under Fire and The Siege,
but he brings a vulnerability to the character much like he did in the
Nick Cassavetes directed John Q. The very nature of the movie
will be of interest to Denzel’s older fans that appreciate quality acting
and filmmaking, although it may have trouble getting the younger urban
males who flocked to Man on Fire and Training Day.
| Denzel Washington | |||||
|
Title |
Release Date |
Theater Count |
Weekend Box Office (in millions) |
Average |
Total Box Office |
|
Man on Fire |
4/3/04 |
2,979 |
$22.75 |
$7,637 |
$77.56 |
|
Out of Time |
10/3/03 |
3,076 |
$16.19 |
$5,262 |
$40.91 |
|
John Q |
2/15/02 |
2,466 |
$23.61 |
$9,575 |
$71.03 |
|
Training Day |
10/5/01 |
2,712 |
$22.55 |
$7,315 |
$76.26 |
|
The Siege |
11/6/98 |
2,541 |
$13.93 |
$5,482 |
$40.93 |
|
Courage Under Fire |
7/12/96 |
1,986 |
$12.50 |
$6,294 |
$59.00 |
|
Crimson Tide |
5/12/95 |
2,382 |
$18.61 |
$7,813 |
$91.37 |
| Jonathan Demme | ||||||
|
Title |
Release Date |
Theater Count |
Previous Box Office (in millions) |
Weekend Box Office (in millions) |
Average |
Total Box Office |
|
The Truth About Charlie |
10/25/02 |
753 |
$2.27 |
$3,015 |
$5.29 |
|
|
Beloved |
10/16/98 |
1,501 |
$8.17 |
$5,443 |
$22.84 |
|
|
Philadelphia |
1/14/94 |
1,245 |
$0.95 |
$13.70 |
$11,004 |
$77.32 |
|
Silence of the Lambs |
2/15/91 |
1,497 |
$1.41 |
$13.77 |
$9,198 |
$130.73 |
| Political Thrillers | ||||||
|
Title |
Release Date |
Theater Count |
Previous Box Office (in millions) |
Weekend Box Office (in millions) |
Average |
Total Box Office |
|
Spartan |
3/12/04 |
832 |
$2.01 |
$2,418 |
$4.36 |
|
|
The Quiet American |
2/14/03 |
157 |
$1.69 |
$1.24 |
$7,881 |
$12.99 |
|
The Contender |
10/13/00 |
1,516 |
$5.36 |
$3,536 |
$17.80 |
|
|
Primary Colors |
3/20/98 |
1,965 |
$12.05 |
$6,132 |
$39.30 |
|
|
Wag the Dog |
1/9/98 |
1,665 |
$1.96 |
$7.78 |
$4,673 |
$43.04 |
|
Conspiracy Theory |
8/8/97 |
2,806 |
$19.31 |
$6,882 |
$76.12 |
|
|
Murder at 1600 |
4/18/97 |
2,152 |
$7.96 |
$3,699 |
$25.84 |
|
|
Absolute Power |
2/14/97 |
2,568 |
$16.77 |
$6,530 |
$50.07 |
|
|
JFK |
12/20/91 |
1,164 |
$5.22 |
$4,485 |
$70.41 |
|
THUNDERBIRDS (Universal
Pictures)| Kingsley & Paxton | ||||||
|
Title |
Release Date |
Theater Count |
Previous Box Office (in millions) |
Weekend Box Office (in millions) |
Average |
Total Box Office |
|
House of Sand and Fog |
12/19/03 |
438 |
$0.04 |
$1.72 |
$3,928 |
$13.01 |
|
Tuck Everlasting |
10/11/02 |
1,185 |
$5.27 |
$4,446 |
$19.14 |
|
|
The Triumph of Love |
4/19/02 |
18 |
$0.06 |
$3,362 |
$0.45 |
|
|
Sexy Beast |
7/6/01 |
134 |
$2.35 |
$0.74 |
$5,498 |
$6.95 |
|
Frailty |
4/12/02 |
1,497 |
$4.21 |
$2,806 |
$13.08 |
|
|
Titanic |
12/19/97 |
2,674 |
$28.64 |
$10,711 |
$600.79 |
|
|
Twister |
5/10/96 |
2,414 |
$41.06 |
$17,009 |
$241.89 |
|
|
Apollo 13 |
6/30/95 |
2,197 |
$25.35 |
$11,538 |
$172.07 |
|
| Jonathan Frakes / Kids Action Flicks | ||||||
|
Title |
Release Date |
Theater Count |
Previous Box Office (in millions) |
Weekend Box Office (in millions) |
Average |
Total Box Office |
|
Star Trek:Insurrection |
12/11/98 |
2,620 |
$22.05 |
$8,416 |
$70.12 |
|
|
Star Trek: First Contact |
11/22/96 |
2,812 |
$30.72 |
$10,925 |
$91.98 |
|
|
Clockstoppers |
3/29/02 |
2,540 |
$10.11 |
$3,980 |
$36.99 |
|
|
Agent Cody Banks |
3/14/03 |
3,369 |
$14.06 |
$4,175 |
$47.55 |
|
|
Spy Kids 3-D: Game Over |
7/25/03 |
3,344 |
$33.42 |
$9,993 |
$111.76 |
|
|
Spy Kids 2: The Island of Lost Dreams |
8/9/02 |
3,307 |
$8.30 |
$16.71 |
$5,053 |
$84.94 |
|
Spy Kids |
3/30/01 |
3,104 |
$26.55 |
$8,552 |
$106.26 |
|
|
Lost In Space |
4/3/98 |
3,306 |
$20.15 |
$6,095 |
$69.12 |
|
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