Preview and Projections for the Weekend of July 2, 2004
By Edward Douglas -

Greetings and welcome back to the Weekend Warrior, your weekly guide to the weekend's new movies. Tune in every Tuesday for the latest look at the upcoming weekend, and then check back on Friday for any last minute updates.

This column is dedicated to the latest addition to the ComingSoon family, the new baby daughter of our beloved leader, Mirko and his lovely wife. Congratulations and best of luck to the happy new parents!

WEEKEND PROJECTIONS (Friday to Sunday) - final update 7.01.04

The Independence Day weekend hits movie theatres with the most anticipated movie of the year as Sam Raimi, Tobey McGuire and Kirsten Dunst return for Spider-Man 2, the sequel to the record-breaking superhero blockbuster that grossed over $400 million back in 2002. This time, Spider-Man takes on Dr. Octopus, as played by Alfred Molina, and the anticipation should be just as high or higher than the first movie. Opening on Wednesday, it should shoot to beat its own opening day record and maintain a steady stream of business through the 4^th of July weekend, earning more than the rest of the movies combined. The only movie to not be affected by the opening of Spider-Man 2 will be Michael Moore’s controversial documentary Fahrenheit 9/11, which should add more theatres to capitalize on its overwhelming success last weekend. It may not make that much less in its second weekend than it did last week. With the Fourth of July on Sunday and many banks and offices being closed on Monday, popular favorites like Dodgeball, The Terminal, Harry Potter and Shrek 2 should see decent business over the holiday weekend as well. Although only one new movie opens nationwide this weekend, those in big cities will have a few other choices including new movies from Kevin Kline, Richard Linklater and Robert Redford. (See Under the Radar)

TW	LW	Title	Weekend (in millions)	Change	# Of Theaters	Average	Week
1	New	Spider-Man 2	$110.5*	N/A	4,150	$26,614	1
2	1	Fahrenheit 9/11	$22.8	-5%	1,725	$13,217	2
3	3	Dodgeball: A True Underdogs Story	$10.3	-45%	2,953	$3,488	3
4	2	White Chicks	$9.0	-54%	2,800	$3,214	2
5	4	The Notebook	$8.0	-41%	2,323	$3,444	3
6	5	The Terminal	$7.8	-40%	2,782	$2,804	2
7	7	Shrek 2	$6.4	-37%	2,609	$2,453	7
8	6	Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban	$6.2	-45%	2,725	$2,275	5
9	8	Garfield	$4.3	-43%	2,458	$1,749	4
10	9	Two Brothers	$3.9	-36%	2,181	$1,788	2
			Est. Weekend Total $189.10	Est. Avg. Drop-Off -38%		Est. Average PTA $6,100

*Spider-Man 2 projection is for the three-day Friday-Sunday period with it earning another possible $22 to 25 million on Monday.

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SPIDER-MAN 2 (Columbia Pictures)
Starring: Tobey Maguire, Kirsten Dunst, James Franco, Rosemary Harris, J.K. Simmons, Alfred Molina, Brooke Adams, Dylan Baker, Elizabeth Banks, Bruce Campbell, Daniel Gillies, Donna Murphy, Vanessa Ferlito, Ted Raimi
Directed by: Sam Raimi (Spider-Man, Darkman, Evil Dead
Rated PG-13
Tagline: "This summer a man will face his destiny. A hero will be revealed."
(Note: Possible spoiler warnings for the first movie in this preview.)

Two years after he was bitten by a radioactive spider and given the proportionate powers of the insect, poor Peter Parker (Tobey Maguire) is troubled by his decision to become the superhero Spider-Man. He can’t tell his secret to Mary Jane Watson (Kirsten Dunst) the girl he loves, his best friend Harry Osborne hates his alter ego for killing his father, and there’s a new menace plaguing him called Dr. Octopus (Alfred Molina). It may be too much for Peter, as the superhero in the webbed spandex returns for the sequel to the 2002 box office smash.

Two years ago, Marvel’s first and greatest superhero Spider-Man came to the big screen with cult horror director Sam Raimi at the helm. The demand and anticipation for a big screen version of the character was overwhelming as millions of people rushed out to see it opening weekend, setting a new three-day box office record. Although it earned $114 million in just three days, it didn’t stop there as the movie was so well received that it sustained its business over the entire summer, earning over $400 million, putting it just behind some of the Star Wars movies and the all-time box office leader, Titanic. A few months later, its subsequent DVD and video release also set records, as 7 million units were sold the very first day allowing it to become one of the fastest selling and highest grossing DVDs ever, while also setting an an all-time record for rentals, by earning another $112 million from that outlet. And after that, the movie was shown on Pay-Per-View and HBO over the last few months, making you wonder if there is anyone on the planet who hasn’t seen the original movie.

Neither Tobey Maguire nor Kirsten Dunst were very well known before appearing in Spider-Man, butthe success of the movie made them both bankable stars and popular favorites among a vast new audience. Before winning the role of Peter Parker over a large list of candidates, Maguire had appeared in critically lauded films like The Cider House Rules, The Wonder Boys, and Pleasantville. In the time between the first movie and making the sequel, Maguire was able to branch out into production with the Academy Award nominated horse racing drama Seabiscuit, directed by Pleasantville’s Gary Ross. It earned over $100 million last summer, thanks in part to Maguire’s presence, as well as the bestselling non-fiction book on which it was based. Kirsten Dunst had already established herself before taking on the role of Mary Jane Watson in Spider-Man. After getting noticed in Sofia Coppola’s first movie, The Virgin Suicides, Dunst broke out as the star of the cheerleading comedy Bring It On, but her appearance in Crazy/Beautiful and smaller indies didn’t do quite as well. In her break between Spider-Man movies, Dunst starred with Julia Roberts in the academic chick flick Mona Lisa Smile, a decent holiday hit last year, and Jim Carrey’s lower-budget comedy, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, written by Charlie Kaufman. Now that Maguire and Dunst have established themselves as the characters, the sequel is not necessarily about either of them as stars, but more about the characters that they have brought to life.

The one cast member not returning for the sequel is Willem Dafoe’s Green Goblin, who perished in the last movie. (He does star with Robert Redford in The Clearing, which opens in limited release this weekend.) For the sequel, he’s replaced by another fan favorite Spidey foe, Dr. Octopus, played by British actor Alfred Molina. After getting his start with a memorable role in Raiders of the Lost Ark, Molina has mostly been under the radar until starring opposite Salma Hayek in Frida, her 2002 biopic of Mexican painter Frida Kahlo, for which she received an Oscar nomination. More recently, Molina appeared opposite Around the World in 80 Days star Steve Coogan in Jim Jarmusch’s Coffee and Cigarettes, and he’s currently starring in the Broadway revival of The Fiddler on the Roof. Molina’s role in Spider-Man 2 is the kind of break that will make him well known to the largest audience of moviegoers unfamiliar with his work. Of course, J. K. Simmons, star of “Oz” and “Law and Order: SVU”, will be returning as Daily Bugle publisher J. Jonah Jameson and James Franco will be taking a more central role as Peter’s friend Harry Osborne.

Maguire, Dunst and Molina

Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Spider-Man	5/3/02	3,615		$114.84	$31,769	$405.69
Seabiscuit	7/25/03	1,987		$20.85	$10,495	$120.20
Wonder Boys	2/25/00	1,253	$0.05	$5.81	$4,637	$19.22
The Cider House Rules	1/7/00	816	$5.14	$3.08	$3,775	$57.54
Pleasantville	10/23/98	1,479		$1.94	$1,312	$40.57
Mona Lisa Smile	12/19/03	2,677		$11.53	$4,306	$62.96
crazy/beautiful	6/29/01	1,601		$4.72	$2,945	$16.89
Bring it On	8/25/00	2,380		$17.36	$7,294	$68.25
The Virgin Suicides	5/12/00	270	$1.09	$0.60	$2,222	$4.78
Frida	11/22/02	794	$9.69	$2.37	$2,984	$22.83

Before making Spider-Man, director Sam Raimi had done three low-budget horror movies for his Evil Deadseries, and quieter dramas like A Simple Plan and The Gift. That said, he had a bit of a superhero background having directed the cult favorite Darkman, which spawned a number of direct-to-video sequels. With Spider-Man’s larger budget, Raimi was able to bring his craft to new heights of popularity and fandom, and with that experience under his belt should allow him to make an even better sequel, especially as far as the action and the CGI. Raimi’s return for the sequel should help the franchise do at least as well as Batman Returns did with director Tim Burton returning for the sequel.

|At this point, a sequel to a huge blockbuster is nothing new, since we’ve seen Harry Potter, The Lord of the Rings, The Matrix and Shrek all spawn equally successful sequels in the last few years. Despite the number of people who saw the first movie in its various formats, Spider-Man is not yet on the verge of reaching the levels of fanaticism as George Lucas’ Star Wars series, but each successive movie should increase the fanbase, doing even more business opening weekend as they rush to see it. Episode 1: The Phantom Menace, the first new Star Wars movie in over fifteen years, made $105 million in its first five days on its way to $431 million. Three years later, the follow-up to earned $116 million in only four days, but only grossed $300 million total. The Lost World, the sequel to Steven Spielberg’s blockbuster Jurassic Park, The Mummy Returns and The Matrix Reloaded are other examples of sequels that do far better opening weekend than their predecessors. Each of Peter Jackson’s The Lord of the Rings films have done successively better both opening weekend and overall, which is also a bit more promising for Spider-Man 2’s long-term success.

After The Matrix Reloaded, the sequel began to get a bit of a bad rap last year, as Hollywood threw out one sequel after another with few of them getting much interest among moviegoers. This year has been a bit better, as seen by the amazing success of Shrek 2, the record breaking sequel to a $250 plus grossing family film. It is mere days away from defeating Spider-Man’s impressive box office gross. Shrek 2 proves that a decent sequel to a big film can do even better and that the sequel is alive and well despite the bad reaction to them last summer. With school out for the summer, Spider-Man 2 shouldn’t have the problem of Shrek 2’s weaker mid-week opening either.

Blockbuster Sequels

Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Shrek 2	5/21/04	4,163	$20.93	$108.04	$25,952	$378.62
Shrek	5/18/01	3,587	$0.04	$42.35	$11,805	$267.65
The Matrix Reloaded	5/16/03	3,603	$42.51	$91.77	$25,471	$281.91
The Matrix	4/2/99	2,849	$9.57	$27.78	$9,751	$171.38
Batman Returns	6/19/92	2,644		$47.72	$18,048	$162.83
Batman	6/23/89	2,194		$42.71	$19,467	$251.19
The Lost World	5/23/97	3,281	$2.57	$72.13	$21,984	$229.09
Jurassic Park	6/12/93	2,404		$50.16	$20,865	$356.78
Star Wars: Episode II - Attack of the Clones	5/16/02	3,161	$30.14	$86.15	$36,792	$303.63
Star Wars: Episode 1-The Phantom Menace	5/21/99	2,970	$41.76	$64.81	$21,822	$431.07
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers	12/20/02	3,622	$40.04	$61.50	$16,980	$337.26
The Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Rings	12/21/01	3,359	$27.91	$47.21	$14,055	$304.11

Obviously, many people saw and loved that first movie (66% of IMDB users rated it 7 or higher), and the sequel will be met with even more advance interest, so Sony has taken its promotion up a notch airing commercials on most stations almost every five minutes. The movie has been featured on the cover of most entertainment magazines, as well as a number of Sunday newspapers, and if you live in a big city, you probably can’t go anywhere without seeing the huge billboards and posters everywhere. That’s not even to mention the promotional tie-ins for various products, including Spider-Man cereal, candy, cookies. By now, everyone should know that the movie is opening on Wednesday, and the anticipation for this sequel may even be higher than The Matrix Reloaded last year. Spider-Man 2 also has the benefits of the critics and fanboys rallying around it, since advance reviews have been overwhelmingly positive, something that can’t be said about the sequels to The Matrix or even Star Wars Episode 1. This should translate into more interest even from those who didn’t see or didn’t like the first movie. Even better for the movie is that the movie and character has one of the widest demographics of any other movie, stretching from the very young to teens and older adults, with enough action for the guys and enough romance and drama for the women. It’s one of the few movies that is enjoyed by people from all walks of life.

Currently, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King holds the record for the biggest Wednesday opening, having earned $34 million in 3,703 theatres. Recent blockbuster sequels like The Matrix Reloaded and Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban have both come close to beating Spider-Man’s opening day record of $39.4 million, while Shrek 2 had an impressive first Friday last month. Spider-Man 2 will be opening on Wednesday in over 4,000 theatres, and it shorter running time should guarantee more showings allowing it to beat those records with an opening day well over $40 million, thanks in part to its many midnight showings. Usually, a mid-week opening will mean more people rush out to see it, and that will definitely be the case here, but there should be enough demand as those working during the week may wait until the weekend.

The sequel to one of the biggest movies of all time will likely do very well this weekend--as if that may surprise anyone--probably setting a few new records in the bargain. That said, opening early on Wednesday and the 4^th of July holiday may keep it from defeating its own three-day box office record. Either way, Spider-Man 2 will get a lot of a business as the millions who saw and enjoyed the original will use the holiday to try to catch it with friends and family. It should be able to make upwards of $60 million in its first two days and then another $125 over the four-day weekend, giving it an outstanding chance at being the fastest movie to make $200 million, earning that much by Tuesday. (Update: Having earned $40.4 million on Wednesday, Spider-Man 2 is right on track with my projections.) The July release and the slew of other big movies coming out in the weeks that follow may keep it from having the legs of the original movie, but it shouldn’t have a problem earning over $350 million or more by the end of the summer.

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UNDER THE RADAR

Do you live in a major North American city? If so, there are a number of limited release movies worth checking out. And if you don't live in one of the cities in which these movies open, look for some of them to hit your area sometime in the next few months.

AMERICA’S HEART AND SOUL (Walt Disney Pictures)
BEFORE SUNSET (Warner Independent Pictures)
THE CLEARING (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
THE CORPORATION (Zeitgeist Films)
DE-LOVELY (MGM Pictures)
DESERTED STATION (First Run Features)

Just in time for the 4^th of July, Disney’s latest documentary follows filmmaker Louis Schwartzberg as he takes his camera on the road to show the beauty of the country and meet ordinary Americans with amazing stories. Schwartzberg’s stirring documentary will open in 96 theatres across the country this weekend.

With Before Sunset, director Richard Linklater revisits the characters from his 1994 romance, Before Sunrise withEthan Hawke and Julie Delpy reprise their roles. Their characters meet nine years after their tryst in Vienna for a walk around Paris and a lengthy bit of catch-up on what might have been before he catches his plane home. Before Sunset will open in major cities this weekend. MY REVIEW

Pieter Jan Brugge’s directorial debut, The Clearing, stars Robert Redford as a wealthy businessman kidnapped by a jealous underling, played by Willem Dafoe, while his wife (Helen Mirren) tries to cope with his absence. A strong character drama in the vein of In the Bedroom and 21 Grams, the film opens in major cities this weekend.

Following in the footsteps of Michael Moore, Mark (Manufacturing Consent) Achbar’s new documentary The Corporation, based on the book by Joel Bakan, takes an in-depth look at the inner workings of the American corporation and its impact on the country. Michael Moore even makes an appearance in this Sundance audience award-winning documentary that opens in New York on Wednesday after a run in California. It will spread across the rest of the country in July. MY REVIEW

Kevin Kline plays composer Cole Porter (“Night and Day”, “Anything Goes”) in De-Lovely, a musical portrait of his life, featuring performances of Porter’s songs by Elvis Costello, Alanis Morissette, Robbie Williams, Mick Hucknall from Simply Red and more. Irwin Winkler’s stirring biodrama, which also stars Ashley Judd, will open in fifteen theatres in ten cities on Friday, and it should expand nationwide in July.

The Iranian drama Deserted Station is about a photographer and a young woman stranded in a remote village when their car breaks down. The village is only populated by a schoolteacher and parentless children, with whom the woman begins to bond. Ali Reza Raisian’s film will open in San Francisco this weekend.

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THIS TIME LAST YEAR

Last Independence Day saw the release of three new movies, each vying for different target audiences, but two long-awaited sequels took the top two spots at the box office. After twelve years, Arnold Schwarzenegger returned to one of his more famous roles as Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines opened on Wednesday, making over $72 million in its first five days. Although this was better than the $53 million made by T2: Judgment Day in the same time frame, it was slightly less than expected when compared to The Matrix Reloaded, which opened a few months earlier. Reese Witherspoon reprised the role of Elle Wood in Legally Blonde 2: Red, White and Blonde, taking advantage of the patriotic holiday by bringing her character to Washington, DC. It made $22 million over the three-day weekend, only slightly better than the original movie made opening weekend, after earning $16 million on Wednesday and Thursday. DreamWorks didn’t have as much luck with their summer 2003 animated offering Sinbad: Legend of the Seven Seas, continuing the colon themed titles. With voices provided by Brad Pitt and Catherine Zeta-Jones, the animated movie failed to find its younger audience, making less than $7 million in over 3,000 theatres, putting one of the last nails in the coffin of traditional animation.

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Next week, the legend of King Arthur comes to the big screen along with the legend of Will Ferrell’s Ron Burgundy in Anchorman, and Spy Kids’ Alex Vega has a Sleepover.

Copyright 2004 Edward Douglas