Preview and Projections for the Weekend of July 16, 2004
By Edward Douglas -

Greetings and welcome back to the Weekend Warrior, your weekly guide to the weekend's new movies. Tune in every Tuesday for the latest look at the upcoming weekend, and then check back on Friday for any last minute updates.

WEEKEND PROJECTIONS - final update 7.15.04

Two popular stars that appeal to different generations and demographics will try to dethrone Spider-Man 2 from its two weeks at the top spot. The best bet will be for 4^th of July king Will Smith to knock one out of the ballpark with his latest sci-fi action movie I, Robot, based on the books by Isaac Asimov and directed by The Crow’s Alex Proyas. As the perfect vehicle for Smith’s fans, it should have an impressive opening weekend that puts it well ahead of the pack. Likewise, A Cinderella Story is right up Hillary Duff’s alley, being a modern day fairly tale for young girls. It will attempt to replicate the success of Legally Blonde and The Princess Diaries with its counter-programming to Smith’s action fest, although it may have a bit more trouble due to the overabundance of similar movies that have come out this past year. It will likely end up somewhere in the middle of popular favorites like Spider-Man 2 and Anchorman. A few popular limited releases will expand into more cities this weekend including Robert Redford's The Clearing, the Cole Porter biodrama De-Lovely, the wacky comedy Napoleon Dynamite, and Richard Linklater's Before Sunset with Ethan Hawke and Julie Delpy.

TW	LW	Title	Weekend (in millions)	Change	# Of Theaters	Average	Week
1	New	I, Robot	$47.5	N/A	3,418	$13,897	1
2	1	Spider-Man 2	$24.5	-47%	4,058	$6,037	3
3	New	A Cinderella Story	$18.0	N/A	2,625	$6,857	1
4	2	Anchorman	$17.8	-38%	3,104	$5,735	2
5	3	King Arthur	$7.4	-52%	3,086	$2,398	2
6	4	Fahrenheit 9/11	$7.1	-36%	2,004	$3,543	4
7	5	The Notebook	$4.4	-34%	2,089	$2,106	4
8	6	White Chicks	$3.4	-46%	1,730	$1,965	4
9	8	The Terminal	$3.1	-38%	1,804	$1,718	5
10	7	Dodgeball: A True Underdogs Story	$3.0	-48%	1,945	$1,542	5
			Est. Weekend Total $136.30	Est. Avg. Drop-Off -42%		Est. Average PTA $4,580

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A CINDERELLA STORY (Warner Brothers Pictures)
Starring: Hilary Duff, Jennifer Coolidge, Chad Michael Murray, Regina King, Julie Gonzalo, Lin Shaye, Brad Bufanda
Directed by: Mark Rosman (feature film debut)
Rated PG
Tagline: “Once upon a time can happen any time.”

Hilary Duff stars in a modern remake of the popular fairy tale, except her Cinderella is a high school senior dealing with a self-obsessed stepmother (Legally Blonde’s Jennifer Coolidge) and two wicked stepsisters. When she meets her “prince charming” online at a masked ball, she has to leave their date in a hurry, leaving him her cell phone as the only clue to her true identity.

A Cinderella Story may look like more than fodder for the teen and preteen estrogen set—well, actually it is—but at least this one has the benefits of a popular star that has already proven herself worthy of the material. The fairy tale premise seems perfectly suited for Duff, whom has quickly become the hottest young actress in Hollywood thanks to an amazing year in which her fan base grew with every new venture.

This will be Duff’s first film appearance in 2004 after conquering television, movies and music last year. Much of it can be traced back to her hit Disney Channel show, which built Duff an enormous audience of “tween” girls from the age of 9 to 15, but her other projects last year made her even more popular. After a small role in Frankie Muniz’s family spy comedy Agent Cody Banks, Duff made her jump to the big time with The Lizzie McGuire Movie, a big screen version of her Disney show that her fans rushed out to see opening weekend. It offered enough effective counter-programming to earn $17 million against the mega-opening of X2: X-Men Divided that weekend. Despite the movie’s success, Duff ended up parting ways with Disney over a difference in the direction of her career, and she branched out into a musical career, scoring a hit album and single in the bargain. She next appeared as one of Steve Martin’s twelve kids in the Christmas family hit Cheaper by the Dozen, although how much of that opening could be owed to Duff’s presence is unknown. Because girls love Hilary Duff and she can do no wrong, they may forgive the fact that the movie looks like so many other movies that have come out this year.

Hilary Duff:

Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Cheaper By the Dozen	12/26/03	3,298	$8.18	$27.56	$8,356	$128.03
The Lizzie McGuire Movie	5/2/03	2,825		$17.34	$6,138	$42.67
Agent Cody Banks	3/14/03	3,369		$14.06	$4,175	$47.55

Although A Cinderella Story is coming on the tail of a year full of teen girl targeted fantasy-romances, including Julia Styles’ The Prince and Me and Anne Hathaway’s Ella Enchanted, Duff’s return to the big screen may be an attempt to bring her into the realm of Reese Witherspoon and the success of the Legally Blonde movie. When it was released almost three years ago to the date—coincidence? I think not—Legally Blonde was seen as a true original, being a movie targeted directly towards teen girls at a time when guys were the primary draw at the box office. A few months later, Disney scored a hit with their G-rated The Princess Diaries starring Anne Hathaway, and the rest is history, as every studio quickly tried to copy the formula with their own female teen stars. Hillary Duff and Lindsay Lohan seem to be two of the bigger success stories while pop singer Mandy Moore hasn’t sustained her film career as well. Others, like Spy Kids’ Alexa Vega, star of last week’s megaflop Sleepover, have bombed right out of the gate. At least, Duff already has the fans and the reputation, not to mention the movie’s take on a very popular fairly tale, which will make A Cinderella Story a much easier sell.

One also can’t discount the presence of Duff’s co-star Jennifer Coolidge, a popular comedic actress who brought so much to Legally Blonde, the American Pie series, and Christopher Guest’s mockumentaries. Her role in the movie is being played up in the commercials to help bring in older women and girls who will remember her fondly from Legally Blonde.

Teen Girl Fantasies:

Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Mean Girls	4/30/04	2,839		$24.43	$8,606	$83.48
Ella Enchanted	4/9/04	1,931		$6.20	$3,195	$22.69
The Prince and Me	4/2/04	2,682		$9.41	$3,507	$28.17
Confessions of a Teenage	2/20/04	2,503		$9.35	$3,736	$29.30
Chasing Liberty	1/9/04	2,400		$6.08	$2,534	$12.19
Legally Blonde 2: Red, White & Blonde	7/4/03	3,350	$16.29	$22.22	$6,655	$89.68
Legally Blonde	7/13/01	2,620		$20.38	$7,778	$95.66
The Princess Diaries	8/3/01	2,537		$22.86	$9,011	$108.24

Then again, the promotion for A Cinderella Story has not been great, and it doesn’t have nearly the buzz of some of those other movies. Warner Brothers hasn’t had very much luck with this genre having been behind two of this year’s teen flops, Mandy Moore’s Chasing Liberty and the Olsens’ New York Minute, so one has to wonder if they’re able to come out of it by teaming with Hillary Duff.

The Duff phenomenon, which has been at rest for the last few months, is bigger than most adults, including myself, will ever understand, so A Cinderella Story will probably end up doing better than any movie with such a silly premise should. Although it may not do as well as Legally Blonde or The Princess Diaries due to a crowded market, an opening between $17 and 19 million shouldn’t be too hard with a good chance of legs if the movie stands up to the quality of some of its predecessors.

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I, ROBOT (20^th Century Fox)
Starring: Will Smith, Bridget Moynahan, Bruce Greenwood, James Cromwell, Chi McBride, Alan Tudyk
Directed by: Alex Proyas (The Crow, Dark City, Garage Days)
Rated PG-13
Tagline: “What will you do with yours?”

Thirty years in the future, robots are everywhere, helping humans with their day-to-day menial labor. In this world, only one person, a paranoid, techno-phobic detective played by Will Smith, is suspicious of the robots. His doubts are given foundation when he investigate a murder commited by a robot, leading to a nefarious discovery about these supposedly peaceful and trustworthy robots.

It wouldn’t be summer without a Will Smith action blockbuster, and although he has once again missed his usual 4^th of July stomping ground, Smith has settled comfortably into the mid-July release of last year’s action sequel Bad Boys 2. Based on the series of books by Isaac Asimov, I, Robot is the perfect vehicle for Smith, as it mixes many of the elements that have appealed to fans of his past movies—science fiction, special effects and action—to create the perfect summer blockbuster. In development and production for over five years, this science fiction film will offer a stylish and futuristic look that should make it of interest to fans of the genre.

By now, everyone should know Smith’s history from his origins as one half as DJ Jeff and the Fresh Prince to his related television sitcom, “The Fresh Prince of Bel-Air”. His pairing with Martin Lawrence in Bad Boys kicked off a movie career, which included blockbuster hits like Independence Day and his two Men in Black movies with Tommy Lee Jones. (Appearing in an updated version of the television show, The Wild Wild West, did little to help Smith’s career.) Although he tried to branch out with a bit of drama in the 2000 flop The Legend of Bagger Vance, Smith returned to what he did best—action and comedy—with the 2002 sequel to Men In Black. Last year, the sequel to his first movie, Bad Boys 2 came out in mid-July and it did decently with a $46 million opening despite its R-rating and a rather crowded market of action sequels. Although I, Robot is not a sequel, it should show that Will Smith still has what it takes to put people into seats with the right vehicle. Although there’s little question that the predominant audience for I, Robot will be guys, Smith’s look and personality has built him a decent female audience, as well. Of course, there will be those who don’t like Smith or the schtick he uses in all his movies—the signature for all true action stars—but even they may be interested in seeing this one due to the genre.

Will Smith:

Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Bad Boys II	7/18/03	3,186		$46.52	$14,602	$137.26
Men in Black II	7/5/02	3,557	$35.09	$52.15	$14,661	$192.40
The Wild Wild West	7/2/99	3,342	$13.27	$27.72	$8,294	$113.81
Enemy of The State	11/20/98	2,393		$20.04	$8,374	$111.54
Men In Black	7/4/97	3,020	$33.06	$51.07	$16,911	$250.15
Independence Day	7/5/96	2,882	$11.12	$50.23	$17,429	$306.17

Once again, Smith is working with a great director in Alex Proyas, who first got the attention of genre fans with his comic book adaptation of Michael O’Barr’s The Crow ten years ago. Although his next movie, Dark City with Kiefer Sutherland and Jennifer Connelly, didn’t do as well at the box office, the movie helped build a cult following with a premise that many saw as an early precursor to The Matrix, which opened the following year.

Future shock science fiction films have a bit of a built-in audience, and no one does them better than author Phillip K. Dick, author of the stories that were the basis for Blade Runner, Minority Report and Arnold Schwarzenegger’s Total Recall, three good examples of popular science fiction leading to popular summer films. Robots have also been central to the plots of movies like A.I., Robin Williams’ Bicentennial Man, and even the recent comedy remake of The Stepford Wives, but they’ve never been done like this with thousands of them swarming over the city. Asimov’s vision of a menacing future was mirrored in Robert Heinlein’s Starship Troopers, about a war between humans and bug-like creatures, which Paul Verhoeven tackled after directing Total Recall. It wasn’t nearly as successful as his earlier hit, but it didn’t have the star power of a Schwarzenegger or a Will Smith either. Although, there are many similarities, I, Robot looks a bit less heady than Spielberg’s back-to -back sci-fi films, A.I. and Minority Report, so it should be able to bring in the action fans without frustrating them with vague plot twists that require too much thinking.

Related Comparisons:

Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Minority Report	6/21/02	3,001	$35.68	$11,889	$132.01
A.I. Artificial Intelligence	6/29/01	3,242	$29.35	$9,054	$78.56
Bicentennial Man	12/17/99	2,519	$8.23	$3,267	$58.22
Starship Troopers	11/7/97	2,971	$22.06	$7,425	$54.72
Total Recall	6/1/90	2,060	$25.53	$12,393	$119.39
Dark City	2/27/98	1,754	$5.58	$3,181	$14.38
The Crow	5/13/94	1,573	$11.85	$7,533	$50.64

Summer blockbusters are all about marketing, and FOX has launched a major promotional push for I, Robot on a par with Spider-Man 2. After a rather clever teaser last year advertising the NS5 domestic assistant remote to the tune of The Who’s “My Generation”, FOX rolled out a number of very cool trailers with scenes of thousands of cool-looking CGI robots. They wisely attached it to their Memorial Day hit, The Day After Tomorrow, a movie that will have a similar appeal to sci-fi and effects fans, as well as to their surprise comedy hit, Dodgeball. Since then, there have also been a number of commercials shown quite frequently on MTV disguised as ads for the robot, which act as ingenious subliminal advertising for the movie. (Many of these trailers and teasers can be seen by clicking on the movie title above.) Unlike last summer’s Bad Boys 2 and Terminator 3, this has a PG-13 rating which will allow it to get more of a teen audience, although that didn’t do much for last week’s King Arthur, did it?

The 3,400 plus theatres show that FOX and the theatre chains have a lot of confidence in Smith getting another hit with I, Robot, and the combination of a great premise, cool special effects, and action should make I, Robot the top choice for most guys—young and old—as well as a few women. Expect I, Robot to top Smith’s 2003 offering with an impressive weekend take between $45 and 50 million, although legs may be hard to come by against the two action movies opening the following weekend.

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UNDER THE RADAR

Do you live in a major North American city? If so, there are a number of limited release movies worth checking out. And if you don't live in one of the cities in which these movies open, look for some of them to hit your area sometime in the next few months.

THE DOOR IN THE FLOOR (Focus Features)
FREESTYLE: THE ART OF RHYME (Organic Films)
MARIA FULL OF GRACE (HBO/Fine Line Studios)
RECONSTRUCTION (Palm Pictures)
TOUCH OF PINK (Sony Pictures Classics)
ZHOU YOU’S TRAIN (Sony Pictures Classics)

Tod Williams’ The Door in the Floor, adapted from John Irving’s “A Widow for One Year”, is about a children’s book writer (Jeff Bridges) and his dysfunctional wife (Kim Basinger) as they deal with the grief of losing their two sons. Their family life is disrupted further when the college intern he hires has an affair with his wife. The Door in the Floor opens in limited release on Wednesday. MY REVIEW

The art and history of improvisational rap is documented in Kevin Fitzgerald’s film, Freestyle: The Art of Rhyme, which opens in New York this weekend. Shot over a period of seven years, it is already a cult hit in the hip-hop community.

In Maria Full of Grace, a pregnant Columbian girl (newcomer Catalina Sandino Moreno) becomes a drug mule—swallowing cocaine-filled pellets to bring through customs--taking her from her poverty-filled life in Columbia to New York City. Joshua Marston’s shocking true-to-life drama, which won the audience award at the Sundance Film Festival, opens in New York and Los Angeles this weekend. MY REVIEW

The Scandinavian romantic drama Reconstruction is about a young man drawn into an affair despite already having a nice girlfriend. Winner of a prize at Cannes, Christoffer Boe’s film festival mainstay opens in New York and Los Angeles this weekend.

Touch of Pink is a romantic comedy about a gay Asian-Canadian living in London, who thinks that he’s living with the spirit of Cary Grant (played by “Twin Peaks” star Kyle MacLachlan). His ideal life is disrupted when his traditional mother shows up to bring him back to Canada in order to get him a proper Muslim girlfriend. It also opens in New York and Los Angeles this weekend.

Gong Li (Farewell My Concubine) stars in Zhou You’s Train, Sun Zhou’s love story about a painter torn between two men, a quiet librarian/poet and a brash veterinarian, and how their lives revolve around her train ride between their two cities. The romantic drama opens in New York and Los Angeles on Friday.

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THIS TIME LAST YEAR

This same weekend last year bore more than a few similarities to this weekend, as it was also all about Will Smith, as he reteamed with Martin Lawrence for the sequel to their Michael Bay directed action comedy, Bad Boys 2, which earned a substantial $46.5 million, despite an R-Rating. Although it was bumped down to #2, Disney’s Pirates of the Caribbean continued to motor along with a minimal second weekend drop-off, earning $34 million, enough to put it over the $100 million mark. Rowan Atkinson, better known as Mr. Bean, took on the spy game in Johnny English, a madcap family take on James Bond, although came out a year too late to capitalize on 2002’s summer spy mania, earning just over $9 million. Mandy Moore took on her second starring role in How to Deal, a teen chick flick offered as counter-programming to the bad boys, but it earned under $6 million in more theatres than Johnny English. Meanwhile, Disney’s Finding Nemo crossed the $300 million mark, maintaining its placement in the Top 10 for the second month on its way to becoming 2003’s biggest hit.

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Next week, Matt Damon returns as Jason Bourne in The Bourne Supremacy and Halle Berry is a woman...who turns into a cat. Yup. It’s Catwoman.

Copyright 2004 Edward Douglas