Coming Soon! - The Weekend Warrior

Preview and Projections for the Weekend of February 27th, 2004
By Edward Douglas -

Greetings and welcome back to the Weekend Warrior, your weekly guide to the weekend’s new movies. Tune in every Tuesday for the latest look at the upcoming weekend, and then check back on Friday for any last minute updates.

WEEKEND PROJECTIONS - updated 2.26.04

Despite the release of four new movies, only one of them has made one of the biggest impacts on the film industry in well over a decade. In The Passion of The Christ, Mel Gibson presents the last twelve hours in the life of the religious figure, Jesus. Having generated controversy and an unprecedented grassroots marketing campaign, it will easily take the top spot with around $40 million this weekend, although it should also do well when it opens this coming Ash Wednesday. It’s hard to believe, but there are other movies this weekend, too! Ashley Judd returns to the genre that made her famous, as she teams with Samuel L. Jackson for the psychological thriller, Twisted, that will probably be mostly ignored. Fourteen years after the hit movie, Dirty Dancing: Havana Nights recreates the 80’s classic in a new setting, 1958 Cuba, as a teen girl finds romance in the world of the Cuban dance scene. Oddly, this could end up being this weekend’s wild card, despite not having near the star power of the other movies. Two years after Super Troopers, the Broken Lizard comedy troupe returns with their latest, Club Dread, a humorous horror film set in a tropical resort; like their last film, it will likely end up near the bottom of the Top 10. In general, this weekend will be all about what should be one of the biggest religious film events of all time, but expect most of the movies to get hit on Sunday night by the Academy Awards.

TW	LW	Title	Weekend (in millions)	Change	# of Theaters	Average	Week
1	New	The Passion of The Christ	$52.5*	N/A	3,043	$17,253	1
2	1	50 First Dates	$11.5	-44%	3,450	$3,333	3
3	New	Twisted	$8.5	N/A	2,703	$3,145	1
4	New	Dirty Dancing: Havana Nights	$7.2	N/A	2,042	$3,526	1
5	2	Confessions of a Teenage Drama Queen	$5.8	-36%	2,503	$2,317	2
8	New	Broken Lizard's Club Dread	$5.0	N/A	1,807	$2,767	1
7	5	Eurotrip	$4.8	-28%	2,544	$1,831	2
6	3	Miracle	$4.5	-42%	2,222	$2,025	4
9	4	Welcome to Mooseport	$3.7	-44%	2,867	$1,291	2
10	6	Barbershop 2	$3.0	-50%	1,524	$1,969	4
			Est. Weekend Total $106.30	Est. Avg. Drop-Off -41%		Est. Average PTA $3,951

*Based on the Wednesday opening day gross of $26.6 million, inluding Monday and Tuesday sneaks, my original prediction of $40.5 million is a bit low; Gibson's epic will likely make over $50 million this weekend

THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST (Newmarket Films)
Starring: James Caviezel, Monica Bellucci, Maia Morgenstern, Francesco Cabras, Rosalinda Celentano, Claudia Gerini, Ivano Marescotti, Matt Patresi, Sergio Rubini
Directed by: Mel Gibson (The Man Without a Face, Braveheart)
Rated R

One of the mostly hotly debated and controversial movies of the last decade finally opens this Wednesday, as Mel Gibson presents his interpretations of the Gospels of the New Testament. Depicting the last twelve hours of Jesus (Jim Caviezel), The Passion of The Christ shows the trials, the torture and the death by crucifixion of the influential man behind one of the nation’s most widespread religions.

Made for over $30 million of his own money, The Passion of The Christ is the movie that Mel Gibson was compelled to make after rediscovering religion thirteen years ago. After a successful career that made him rich beyond his dreams, he felt so morally bankrupt that he needed to make a more spiritual movie to help heal his wounds. Raised a Catholic, Gibson moved to Australia as a teen where he got into acting, eventually starring in numerous Australian films including two genre classics, Mad Max and The Road Warrior. By the late 80’s, Mel was one of the hottest actors in Hollywood, acting as lynchpin for the blockbuster buddy cop franchise, Lethal Weapon, that spawned three sequels. Gibson’s movies have grossed over $2.2 billion making him one of the most profitable actors in Hollywood.

The Passion of The Christ is Mel’s third movie as a director. His first film was the human drama The Man Without a Face, while his second film Braveheart was another historical epic that received tons of critical praise as well as winning five out of its ten Oscar nominations, including Best Picture and Best Director. With everything that Gibson does, it’s no wonder that he named his production company, Icon. Ironically, Mel’s last movie had him playing a minister who lost his faith in M. Night Shyamalan’s Signs. It became Mel’s biggest movie to date as well as one of 2002’s biggest hits.

The Passion of The Christ has become one of the biggest movie events in recent history, right up there with The Matrix sequels and The Lord of the Rings trilogy. Like those movies, it is getting tons of press and the media are having a field day, featuring it on magazine and newspaper covers, knowing that it will sell issues. Rather than being a harmless science fiction or fantasy film, the movie depicts a historical and religious figure, whose life and death have been debated literally for millennia. Even before anyone had seen it, the movie had its critics, with Gibson getting attacked from all sides. His biggest critics were Jewish groups, journalists and studio execs that claimed Gibson’s film was anti-Semitic in the way that the Jewish kings are depicted as being responsible for Jesus’ death. Gibson hasn’t helped matters by only showing the movie to select audiences of Catholics and Evangelical Christians, and he has used the controversy surrounding the movie’s marketing to deliver his spiritual message. In a powerful interview with Diane Sawyer, Mel Gibson finally answered the charges of anti-semitism, while telling his side of why he had to make this movie. Mel even stated that he may never act again after making this movie.

To take on the lofty role of Jesus, Gibson has called upon James Caviezel, last seen in the title role of The Count of Monte Cristo and in dramas like Angel Eyes and Frequency. Caviezel certainly suffered for his art, even being struck by lighting and dislocating his shoulder while carrying the giant wooden cross. Caviezel is joined in this venture by Monica Belluci, who had many guys’ tongues hanging out of their mouths by her appearance in The Matrix Reloaded and The Matrix Revolutions; she will likely dress a bit more moderately as Jesus’ female apostle, Mary Magdalene. Maia Morgenstern, the actress who plays Jesus’ mother Mary is also getting a lot of attention. Not only is she Jewish, but her father was also a Holocaust survivor, so she has been called upon to defend the movie’s supposed anti-Semitism.

After shopping the film around for a few months, Gibson’s The Passion ended up signing a distribution deal with Newmarket Films, an independent distributor who has had recent success in the last year with Whale Rider and Monster, two smaller independent films that have received Best Actress nominations for their stars. Before that, they distributed Christopher Nolan’s breakout film, Memento. When Newmarket picked up the film, a limited release was expected, but the distributor quickly committed to 2,000 screens, later upped to 2,300 and then just last week, they managed to increase it again, so that The Passion of The Christ will be opening in over 3,000 theatres nationwide, a record opening for such a small distributor. This is amazing when you consider that many theatres might not have even been willing to touch the movie before they realized how much money it was already making in advance sales.

So who will see this movie? First of all, you have the devout Catholics and Christians who will see the movie to strengthen their faith by viewing Jesus’ suffering firsthand. The various sects of Christianity make up over 80% of America’s population, although the number of practicing, church-going Christians might be a bit smaller than that. The more religious will probably skew a bit older than your normal filmgoers, so the movie will certainly be attracting many people who rarely go to the movies. Gibson’s film will also target intelligent people who want to see the movie to decide for themselves whether the death of Jesus was depicted realistically or whether it’s just a lot of hype. The movie will be of interest to those who enjoy a good historical epic like Gibson’s previous film or Gladiator, Ridley Scott’s award-winning film starring Russell Crowe. Either way, this is not the type of movie you’ll see teens in the city going to see on Friday night for a bit of light entertainment.

A few things may make this movie a harder sell to mainstream movie audiences. First of all, the film uses limited dialogue but for the most part, it’s completely in Latin and Aramaic, the ancient languages of that time. Fortunately, Gibson relented in using subtitles, but there have been very few subtitled movies that have become huge box office hits. The two notable ones are Ang Lee’s Chinese historical fantasy, Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon, which earned over $100 million on its way to Oscar accolades in 2000, and Roberto Benigni’s poignant Holocaust film, Life is Beautiful.

An even bigger detractor might be the R-Rated violence and brutality that was afflicted on Jesus in his last hours which could disturb those wanting to see the movie for theological and entertainment reasons. The torture and crucifixion makes up the largest part of the movie, and Gibson has worked hard to bring intense realism to the harrowing events, with a camera that never flinches or looks away. These horrors could scare those with a weaker stomach away, as well as keep religious parents from bringing their children.

Last summer, a handful of movies proved that the R-rating itself isn’t necessarily a hindrance at the box office, but even before last summer, Hannibal, the sequel to The Silence of the Lambs, became the biggest R-Rated movie of all times with its $58 million opening weekend. Another cultural icon that beat the odds with a difficult biodrama was rapper Enimem with his 2002 hit, 8 Mile. Like Jesus, Eminem has a diehard crowd of devout fans who rushed out to see the movie opening weekend; it made over $50 million that weekend in significantly fewer theatres, but ended up grossing just over $100 million. With similar advance buzz, that movie targeted a younger audience, which tends to be the mainstay at movie theatres.

Movies about religion and about the life of Jesus have always been a dicey matter, and controversy has hurt these movies in the past. Jesus’ last days were previously examined by director Martin Scorsese in his controversial, The Last Temptation of Christ, starring Willem Dafoe. Instead of being supported by the church, the film was vilified. Although it had a decent opening in limited release, it did not receive the amount of fervor of The Passion, and was not able to maintain that business when it expanded. By comparison, The Passion of The Christ is adding fuel to the fire, making more people, regardless of their religion, anxious to see the movie for themselves.

England’s popular Monty Python troupe got into trouble with the church when they decided to spoof the story of Jesus in The Life of Brian, as did director Kevin Smith with his religious parody, Dogma. Jesus has also played the central role in a number of movies based on Broadway musicals, such as Godspell and Andrew Lloyd Webber’s Jesus Christ Superstar, both made during the 70s. Then you have more recent movies, like the biopic, Luther, starring Joseph Fiennes, about the life of the religious leader and The Gospel of John, a lower budget film that covered similar ground as Gibson’s Passion. Both of these opened last September, with Luther getting a wider release, and both fell under most people’s radar, because they didn’t have a figurehead on the scale of Gibson at its helm. In general, these movies have almost always been limited release that targeted religious regions of the country.

The Passion is helped by one of the most amazing marketing campaigns of all time, taking place almost entirely in the media. As early as last year, journalists began picking up the story of Gibson’s daring movie retelling the “real story” of what happened to Jesus during his last twelve hours, compiling his vision from the existing gospels.

Churches and individual investors got fully behind the movie, buying entire screenings and tickets by the thousands, many to be given away to parishioners to make sure they see the movie. Supposedly, even the Pope has given the movie his “thumb up” saying that “It is as it was”, but it’s been disputed whether that statement truly came from the Pope himself or some of his people. The movie has been turned into a powerful evangelical tool to get Jesus’ teachings and his message to others. Tons of promotions have been created to tie into the movie with CD’s and books and various promotions that can help the churches raise money. Yes, there is even a commemorative nail that one can buy. It is completely and totally insane.

Ticket sales for Passion made up 50% of Fandango’s sales when they went on sale a few weeks ago, and the movie has already reportedly made over $10 million in advance ticket sales. The film also topped Moviefone’s Top 10 list over a week ago, showing that there was plenty of demand and interest. The Ash Wednesday opening is rather odd, since devout Catholics probably wouldn’t go to the movies on that sacred day, which is usually a day of fasting and abstinence to officially begin forty days of Lent. Then again, it might be considered mandatory viewing to see his suffering and death “firsthand”. Early private screenings on Monday and Tuesday should add to the early week box office, but they could also take further away from the actual weekend box office. That said, Sunday should be busier than normal, as some church congregations will attend after the usual Sunday morning prayers.

At this point, few people have actually seen the movie; most critics have been kept away from screenings by Gibson to avoid the negative backlash that can come from early bad reviews. The film’s subject matter is so controversial that it will likely polarize audiences based on their beliefs, but the hype has done what it was meant to do. The Passion of The Christ will see a huge opening week as everyone rushes out to see it, so it shouldn’t have a problem making close to$40 million over the weekend, with anywhere between $18 and 20 million in the days before. (Update: The Passion of the Christ made over $26 million on its opening Wednesday, which is pointing to a weekend box office of $50 million plus.) Essentially, Gibson’s film will make more opening week than almost all the other films about Jesus put together.

Whether it maintains this business will depend on how people react to the movie, and how many people wait to avoid the rushes and find out what others think before seeing it themselves. Either way, with the amount of hype the movie has received so far, bad word-of-mouth might destroy any chances it has at legs beyond the devout and faithfully religious.

Related Comparisons:

Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
The Gospel of John	9/26/03	14		$0.09	$7,025	$3.77
Luther	9/26/03	400		$0.90	$2,271	$5.79
Dogma	11/12/99	1,260		$8.67	$6,881	$30.65
The Last Temptation of Christ	8/12/88	9		$0.40	$44,579	$8.37
The Life of Brian	8/17/79	5		$0.14	$28,006	$19.40
Braveheart	5/26/95	2,035	$2.64	$12.91	$6,344	$75.59
Gladiator	5/5/00	2,938		$34.82	$11,852	$186.61
The Count of Monte Cristo	1/25/02	2,007		$11.38	$5,668	$54.23
Frequency	4/28/00	2,621		$9.03	$3,445	$44.98
8 Mile	11/8/02	2,470		$51.24	$20,745	$116.13
Hannibal	2/9/01	3,230		$58.00	$17,958	$164.97
Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon	1/12/01	693	$19.89	$7.73	$11,154	$128.07
Life is Beautiful	2/19/99	685	$22.32	$2.35	$3,431	$57.22

BROKEN LIZARD’S CLUB DREAD (Fox Searchlight)
Starring: Bill Paxton, Jay Chandrasekhar, Kevin Heffernan, Steve Lemme, Paul Soter, Erik Stolhanske, Tony Amendola, Julio Bekhor, Brittany Ann Daniel, M.C. Gainey, Jordan Ladd, Samm Levine, Elena Lyons, Daniel Montgomery, Lindsay Price, Tanja Reichert
Directed by: Jay Chandraskehar (Super Troopers)
Rated R
Tagline: “A vacation to die for”

After spoofing state police in Super Troopers, the Broken Lizard troupe returns with a horror mystery set in a island resort owned by former rock star, Coconut Pete (Bill Paxton). Everyone is a suspect when dead bodies start turning up all over the tropical paradise, but can the wacky, drugged-out and over-sexed staff of the resort work together to solve the murders and return to their partying ways?

The Broken Lizard troupe is a comedy group like Monty Python, The Kids in the Hall or the Upright Citizen’s Brigade made up of five members, based in New York and Los Angeles, who have been performing together since 1991. Unlike those other famous troupes, they didn’t originate from a television show, but they’ve performed in New York and the college circuit for many years before producing their first feature film, Puddle Cruiser, in 1996. Their last movie, 2002’s Super Troopers, got the group their most attention, opening over a busy Presidents Day weekend two years ago and ending up near the bottom of the Top 10 with $6.2 million, the lowest opening of five new movies.

In Super Troopers, the troupe was joined by actor Brian Cox, and for Club Dread, they bring Bill Paxton on board as the director of the resort facility. Paxton has the honor of appearing in one of the biggest movies of all time, James Cameron’s Titanic, but he has also appeared in a variety of movies both big and small, including Tombstone and Twister. Paxton’s last major film was his directorial debut, Frailty, an inventive psychological horror movie that wasn’t able to find an audience in theatres despite critical praise. His name isn’t even being mentioned to help promote this comedy.

The question is whether the Broken Lizard’s college age fans have stuck around waiting for their next movie, considering that Super Troopers only did moderately well. Club Dread’s premise is not nearly as appealing, since the Scary Movie franchise has more than covered the humor in horror, and this comes across off as little more than rehash. Fox Searchlight hasn’t promoted the movie that well, maybe because there doesn’t seem to be many funny gags in the commercials. Only a few weeks ago, the movie even got into trouble when Club Med, the venerable tourist resort on which the movie’s title is based took out an injunction against Fox Searchlight, demanding that they destroy all prints and posters. Apparently, the case has since been thrown out.

Last spring, two movies were set in resort/vacation spots. Neither did well. The first of them, Cuba Gooding’s unfortunate comedy, Boat Trip, set on a gay cruise, was dubbed one of the worst films of the year, and it did appropriately bad. When producers Bunim-Murray, creators of the reality show “The Real World” tried to bring reality television to the movies, they made the inexpensive spring break movie, The Real Cancun, about a bunch of over-sexed drunken teens in paradise. Released only a few months after filming, its disastrous opening proved that the kids would rather experience the real thing than sit in a theatre and watch it. Club Dread’s poorly conceived web site even looks like The Real Cancun web site, and the movie looks a bit too much like last year’s video game based horror movie, House of the Dead, yet another flop.

Club Dread doesn’t look like it offers anything new to the market, nor anything that college age males might pick over last week’s comedy, Eurotrip, which has received good word-of-mouth despite its poor opening. The Broken Lizard’s sophomore effort should follow suit with a weak opening of around $5 million and a low placement in the Top 10.

Related Comparisons:

Title
Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

Super Troopers

2/15/02

1,780

$7.15

$4,016

$18.49

Frailty

4/12/02

1,497

$4.21

$2,806

$13.08

The Real Cancun

4/25/03

2,261

$2.11

$933

$3.82

Boat Trip

3/21/03

1,714

$3.82

$2,226

$8.59

National Lampoon's Van Wilder

4/5/02

2,022

$7.30

$3,612

$21.01

Scary Movie

7/7/00

2,912

$42.35

$14,543

$157.00

Kids in The Hall: Brain Candy

4/20/96

413

$1.03

$0.62

$1,501

$2.62

House of the Dead

10/10/03

1,520

$5.68

$3,734

$10.20

DIRTY DANCING: HAVANA NIGHTS (Lions Gate Films/Miramax)
Starring: Romola Garai, Diego Luna, Mika Boorem, Polly Cusumano, Patrick Swayze, Sela Ward, January Jones, René Lavan, Jonathan Jackson
Directed by: Guy Ferland (The Babysitter, Telling Lies in America)
Rated PG-13
Tagline: “Have the time of your life…all over again.”

"Reimagining" the classic 1987 romance, Dirty Dancing: Havana Nights follows the story of an 18-year-old girl named Katey (Romola Garai) transplanted in Havana, Cuba when her father gets a job there in 1958. Outcast from the other American teens, Katey is drawn to the seductive world of the sexy waiter named Javier (Diego Luna), who convinces her to be his dance partner in a competition at Havana’s hottest nightclub/casino, The Palace. The steamy romance grows despite the brewing climate of revolution in the country.

Based on events in the life of producer/choreographer Joann Jensen, it seems like an opportune time for a remake combining romance and dance to do well, considering how well other dance-related movies have done in the last few months. Havana Nights has the added benefit of being based on one of the more successful women’s movies of the 80’s, as the original Dirty Dancing made over $150 million worldwide.

Originally, Havana Nights was rumored to star Latin sensation Ricky Martin and Star Wars’ Natalie Portman, but instead, the role originally played by Jennifer Grey was filled by young British actress, Romola Garai. Having starred in low-key films like I Capture the Castle and Nicholas Nickleby, Garai is fairly unknown in the States, so the bigger draw of the movie would have to be her Latin co-star, Diego Luna. Despite being a known star in his native Mexico, Luna first got attention in the States with Alfonso Cuaron’s Y Tu Mama Tambien, an appearance that made him instantly ultra-hot. After smaller roles in Salma Hayek’s Frida and Kevin Costner’s Open Range, Luna is looking to break out as a romantic lead playing the love interest, Javier. Although he may not have found a younger female audience, having appeared mainly in R-rated fare, Luna has the right look and personality to become very popular. The only original returning cast member, Patrick Swayze does make an appearance in the movie, likely reprising the same dance instructor he played in the original, albeit with a smaller role.

No question that dance movies are hot right now. In the last two months, two movies--Jessica Alba’s Honey and the hip hop dance film, You Got Served--did much better than most people expected. With no name stars and low expectations, You Got Served surprised many by taking the top spot at the box office last month, while doubling its production budget in its opening weekend. Likewise, Honey did very well opening weekend although it didn’t look much more appealing than Mariah Carey’s Glitter. Both movies follow a pattern set by Julia Stiles’ Save the Last Dance, another movie that defied expectations while becoming one of the biggest opening January movies back in 2000. On the other hand, Dirty Dancing won’t have as much of an appeal to the urban market, as those movies, and it combines the choreography with the teen romance of recent flops like Chasing Liberty and Win a Date with Tad Hamilton. Plus there’s still the pall of musical flops like Lambada and last year’s From Justin to Kelly hanging over this movie’s chances of finding an audience.

Fortunately, the remake looks like it could target more than just teen girls, and older women will remember the original Dirty Dancing, and be interested in how it’s been reinvented and combined with Latin salsa dancing. There was even a preview for the remake on the recent DVD special edition of the original movie.

Havana Nights might also get some added interest from the rather large yet sorely neglected Hispanic population of the United States, especially considering Diego Luna’s status. With the majority of this audience being devout Catholics, some may feel a bit obligated to see The Passion of The Christ this weekend instead. Still, younger girls and teens will have little interest in the historical epic, and Dirty Dancing will offer them something a bit more fun and the crossover audience between the two movies will be scant.

Artisan Films bought the rights to the original movie, and then co-produce the film with Miramax, but Dirty Dancing is the first movie released by Lions’ Gate Films after buying Artisan last Fall. Unfortunately, this also means that the promotion for the film has not been as strong as some of the other new movies, so it will be relying heavily on its name brand to sell itself.

With the name brand value of one of the biggest crowd-pleasing movies of the 80’s and a romantic theme to attract a female audience who has had nothing but silly teen girl fare, this Cuban romance might find an audience despite having negligible star power. Although it might have a hard time winning over the skeptics, Dirty Dancing looks like this weekend’s only date movie, and intrigued audiences should help it make between $7 and 9 million this weekend.

Related Comparisons:

Title

Release Date

Theater Count

Previous Box Office (in millions)

Weekend Box Office (in millions)

Average

Total Box Office

Y Tu Mama Tambien

4/5/02

180

$1.79

$1.18

$6,581

$13.62

You Got Served

1/30/04

$16.12

$8,340

$33.51

Honey

12/5/03

1,942

$12.85

$6,620

30.223

From Justin to Kelly

6/20/03

2,001

$2.72

$1,357

$4.92

Save the Last Dance

1/12/01

2,230

$23.44

$10,511

$90.17

Coyote Ugly

8/4/00

2,653

$17.32

$6,528

$60.76

Lambada

3/16/90

1,117

$2.03

$1,817

$4.25

Dirty Dancing

8/21/87

975

$3.90

$4,000

$63.45

TWISTED (Paramount Films)
Starring: Ashley Judd, Samuel L. Jackson, Andy Garcia, David Strathairn, D.W. Moffett, Mark Pellegrino, Russell Wong
Directed by: Phillip Kaufman (Quills, The Right Stuff, The Unbearable Lightness of Being)
Rated R
Tagline: “Every murder has a mark.”

Ashley Judd returns to the genre in which she first made her mark, playing police detective Jessica Shepard, on the hunt for a serial killer who is murdering the men she recently dated. When Jessica starts blacking out before each murder, the police commissioner (Samuel Jackson) and her partner (Andy Garcia) begin to suspect that she may be more directly involved with the murders.

The history of the modern serial killer movie has many high points and low points, maybe because it’s become such an easy subject matter and premise on which to write and sell a script. Plenty of interesting thrillers have been made in the last fifteen years with two memorable high points being Jonathan Demme’s Oscar winning adaptation of Thomas Harris’ The Silence of the Lambs, and David Finchers’ Se7en, which helped define the innovative director’s career. Other directors have also had success with the genre, such as Memento’s Christopher Nolan, who remade the Norwegian thriller, Insomnia, in 2002. Twisted, previously dubbed "The Blackout Murders" due to the state of Judd’s character, is another foray into the genre by a reputable director, as it marks a departure for director Phillip Kaufman, who received critical acclaim for his intelligent biodramas, Quills, about the Marquis De Sade, and Henry and June, about Henry Miller. Whether those who enjoyed his previous movies might give this staid thriller a look is doubtful, although his involvement could insure a higher quality film that gets better reviews than similar movies. Or so we hope.

Casting Ashley Judd in the lead role was not much of a stretch, since she is most known for her work in this genre. Related to the popular country recording duo the Judds, Ashley Judd first got attention for her portrayal of an escaped serial killer victim in Kiss the Girls, based on the novel by James Patterson, and then a year later, she starred with Tommy Lee Jones in the surprise hit thriller, Double Jeopardy. In 2000, she returned to the serial killer genre with Eye of the Beholder with Ewan McGregor, but it did poorly in comparison with her other thrillers, despite taking the #1 spot with a paltry $6 million. (In 2001, Freeman appeared in the “sequel” Along Came a Spider without Judd, and that did even better than Kiss the Girls.) Someone Like You, her romantic comedy with Hugh Jackman wasn’t received well, but in 2002, Judd was reunited with Freeman for their second thriller together. High Crimes had a decent opening of $14 million against the second weekend of a much stronger thriller, David Fincher’s Panic Room. Judd’s last film, The Divine Secrets of the YaYa Sisterhood also did well, thanks to its tie-in to a hugely popular women’s book.

With no Morgan Freeman in sight, Judd has been teamed with another popular African-American actor for Twisted, Samuel L. Jackson. After making a mark in Quentin Tarantino’s Pulp Fiction, Jackson’s diverse career has ranged from recent action movies like XXX and S.W.A.T. to smaller indies like The Caveman’s Valentine and The Red Violin. His range has proven him to be a consummate actor with a wide range of fans that will consider seeing any movie in which he appears. Jackson has been busy in the last year. Besides the ensemble action flick, S.W.A.T., Jackson was reunited last spring with his Pulp Fiction co-star John Travolta for the weak military thriller, Basic. Its moderate success makes you wonder if his career can withstand yet another thriller so soon, although his pairing with Ben Affleck in Changing Lanes did better than most expected. Jackson’s role in Twisted looks reasonably small compared to those other movies, and the movie’s more prominent co-star is Andy Garcia, who does not have nearly the box office pull of the other two actors, although he has appeared in hits like Ocean’s 11.

While the genre has proven successful for many actors and directors, it could very well have run its course. For every movie that uses this type of premise and does well, there are those that don’t. Only a few weeks after High Crimes, Sandra Bullock tried to break stereotype by playing a tough cop taking on a serial killer in Murder by Numbers. It was one of her weakest opening movies in a long time, and it showed that the genre was beginning a definite decline. The last high profile serial killer thriller was last year’s The Hunted, starring Tommy Lee Jones and Benicio Del Toro, which did okay in a busy spring weekend, although it had little staying power despite its starpower.

Twisted looks like the weak link of the weekend, as it’s another bland thriller that we’ve seen far too many times in the last few years. Judd’s return to a familiar genre might help generate interest amongst her fans, but it’s going to be hard for it to get attention or screens away from the other R-Rated “thriller”, The Passion of The Christ, which will have a stronger pull with older audiences. (Udpate: Reviews for the movie have been awful, which will really kill off any possible interest in it.) In a market where originality wins out, Twisted is likely to get lost in the shuffle, although its presence in 2,700 theatres might help it get enough run-off business from Passion sell-outs to make $7 to 9 million this weekend.

Related Comparisons:

Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Basic	3/28/03	2,876		$11.51	$4,003	$26.60
Changing Lanes	4/12/02	2,613		$17.13	$6,716	$66.79
Rules of Engagement	4/7/00	3,155		$15.01	$4,758	$61.32
High Crimes	4/5/02	2,717		$14.01	$5,155	$41.54
Eye of the Beholder	1/28/00	1,751	$0.03	$5.96	$3,404	$16.35
Double Jeopardy	9/24/99	2,547		$23.16	$9,093	$116.40
Kiss the Girls	10/3/97	2,271		$13.22	$5,821	$60.50
Along Came a Spider	4/6/01	2,530		$16.71	$6,606	$74.06
The Hunted	3/14/03	2,516		$13.48	$5,359	$34.23
Murder By Numbers	4/19/02	2,642		$9.31	$3,495	$31.87
The Bone Collector	11/5/99	2,590		$16.71	$6,452	$66.49
Se7en	9/22/95	2,441		$13.95	$5,715	$100.12
Silence of the Lambs	2/15/91	1,497	$1.41	$13.77	$9,198	$130.73

UNDER THE RADAR

Do you live in a major North American city? If so, there are a number of limited release movies worth checking out. And if you don't live in one of the cities in which these movies open, look for some of them to hit your area sometime in the next few months.

ALILA (Kino Films)
GOOD BYE LENIN! (Sony Pictures Classics)

Amos Gitai, director of Kadosh and Kippur, returns with Alila, which examines the lives of a dozen characters that live in an apartment complex in a rundown neighborhood of Tel Aviv, Israel including a Holocaust survivor, a divorcee and a man renting an apartment in order to have a secret affair. Alila opens in New York this weekend and appears at various Jewish film festivals later this year.

The highly praised German film, Good Bye Lenin! tells the story of an East German whose mother wakes up in early 1990 after being in a coma for eight months, unaware that the Berlin Wall has fallen. Aware that the shock might kill her, he creates an elaborate ruse to prevent her from ever learning, recruiting neighbors and family to maintain the illusion that socialism is still alive. This clever socio-political comedy opens in New York and Los Angeles this weekend.

THIS TIME LAST YEAR

Only one new movie was released in this timeframe last year, as DMX and Jet Li appeared in their second film together after 2000’s Romeo Must Die. Cradle 2 the Grave tried to capture the formula that made the other action movie such a success, but it ended up with a moderate $16.5 million, still enough to top the box office. Todd Phillips’ Old School managed to sustain its business for a second week, retaining second place with $14 million, a moderate drop of 20%. Most of the other returning movies managed to pick up a bit of additional business thanks to the minimal new releases.

Next week, March kicks off with two big movies: Ben Stiller and Owen Wilson recreate the classic 70’s cop show, Starsky & Hutch, with director Todd Phillips, while Viggo Mortensen takes on an epic adventure with a horse called Hidalgo.

Copyright 2003 Edward Douglas