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Preview and Projections for the Weekend
of February 20th, 2004
By Edward Douglas -
Greetings and welcome back to the
Weekend Warrior, your weekly guide to the weekend’s new movies.
Tune in every Tuesday for the latest look at the upcoming weekend,
and then check back on Friday for any last minute updates.
WEEKEND PROJECTIONS - updated 2.19.04
Despite the release of four new movies this weekend, Adam Sandler and Drew
Barrymore’s hit romantic comedy, 50 First Dates, should be able to hold
onto the top spot for a second weekend in a row, as studios turn the weekend
into a crap-filled dumping yard. The producers of Old School return
with Eurotrip, another low brow comedy about four friends traveling
in Europe, looks to have the strongest chances with its focused audience of
guys. Ray Romano takes on Gene Hackman in the small town election comedy, Welcome
to Mooseport. While it’s getting the widest release, it could suffer due
to its weak premise and bland marketing. Likewise, Freaky Friday’s Lindsay
Lohan stars in Confessions of a Teenage Drama Queen, Disney’s latest
teen comedy that could do slightly better than its recent peers, but offers
very little new for its audience of teen girls. Look for both of them to end
up in the $8 to 10 million range, if even that. The big dog of the weekend
will probably end up being the Meg Ryan-Omar Epps boxing film, Against the
Ropes, which might have a hard time finding an audience among jaded moviegoers.
Expect two or three of these new movies to add to the long list of big February
bombs. On top of that, one can look for sneak previews of two upcoming March
movies, as Friday sees a sneak preview for The Girl Next Door,
a modern-day remake of Tom Cruise’s Risky Business, and on Saturday,
look for a sneak preview of the upcoming Ben Stiller-Owen Wilson buddy cop
comedy, Starsky and Hutch.
|
TW |
LW |
Title |
Weekend (in millions) |
Change |
# of Theaters |
Average |
Week |
|
1 |
1 |
50 First Dates |
$21.5 |
-46% |
3,591 |
$5,9987 |
2 |
|
2 |
New |
$13.5 |
N/A |
2,512 |
$5,374 |
1 |
|
|
3 |
New |
$10.0 |
N/A |
2,867 |
$3,488 |
1 |
|
|
4 |
3 |
Miracle |
$9.2 |
-35% |
2,711 |
$3,391 |
3 |
|
5 |
New |
$9.0 |
N/A |
2,503 |
$3,596 |
1 |
|
|
6 |
2 |
Barbershop 2 |
$8.0 |
-45% |
2,600 |
$3,077 |
3 |
|
7 |
New |
$4.0 |
N/A |
1,601 |
$2,498 |
1 |
|
|
8 |
4 |
The Butterfly Effect |
$3.2 |
-39% |
1,901 |
$1,683 |
5 |
|
9 |
8 |
Lord of the Rings: Return of the King |
$3.0 |
-28% |
1,407 |
$2,132 |
9 |
|
10 |
6 |
Along Came Polly |
$2.9 |
-40% |
1,710 |
$1,696 |
6 |
|
Est. Weekend Total |
Est. Avg. Drop-Off |
Est. Average PTA |
AGAINST
THE ROPES (Paramount Pictures)|
Title |
Release Date |
Theater Count |
Previous Box Office (in millions) |
Weekend Box Office (in millions) |
Average |
Total Box Office |
In the Cut |
10/24/03 |
825 |
$0.13 |
$2.06 |
$2,501 |
$4.72 |
|
Kate & Leopold |
12/28/01 |
2,452 |
$7.57 |
$9.73 |
$3,966 |
$47.10 |
|
Proof of Life |
12/8/00 |
2,705 |
$10.21 |
$3,774 |
$32.56 |
|
|
Courage Under Fire |
7/12/96 |
1,986 |
$12.50 |
$6,294 |
$59.00 |
|
|
The Wood |
7/16/99 |
1,191 |
$8.52 |
$7,154 |
$25.05 |
|
|
The Brothers |
3/23/01 |
1,378 |
$10.30 |
$7,477 |
$27.46 |
|
|
Marci X |
8/22/03 |
1,200 |
$0.87 |
$727 |
$1.65 |
|
|
Undisputed |
8/23/02 |
1,102 |
$4.55 |
$4,128 |
$12.40 |
|
|
Girlfight |
9/29/00 |
253 |
$0.50 |
$1,960 |
$1.52 |
|
|
Play it to the Bone |
1/21/00 |
1,556 |
$0.02 |
$3.43 |
$2,204 |
$8.43 |
|
Erin Brockovich |
3/17/00 |
2,845 |
$28.14 |
$9,891 |
$125.55 |
CONFESSIONS
OF A TEENAGE DRAMA QUEEN (Touchstone Pictures)
Starring: Lindsay Lohan, Alison Pill, Adam Garcia, Lindsay Lohan, Barbara Mamabolo,
Pedro Miguel Arce, Megan Fox, Kyle Kassardjian, Adam MacDonald, Eli Marienthal
Directed by: Sara Sugarman (Very Annie-Mary)
Rated
Tagline: “So much drama, so little time."
Freaky Friday’s Lindsay
Lohan plays Lola, a hip Greenwich Village teenager who moves to
a new school in a Jersey suburb, where she faces Carla Santini,
a girl claiming to be the most popular girl at her school, a title
that Lola must have no matter what. After trying to nab the lead
role in the school play, the competition between the two girls
culminates at a sold-out concert by Lola’s favorite band that Carla
conveniently has tickets to see.
Based on the novel by Dylan
Sheldon, Confessions of a Teenage Drama Queen is the latest
in a long line of cutesy movies targeted towards teen girls. It
follows a similar direction as another Disney movie from last year, The Lizzie McGuire
Movie, based on the cable show starring Hillary Duff. Duff
was originally supposed to play the lead in Confessions when
it was still at New Line, but it got picked up by Disney when it
ran into problems. When Duff got into contract negotiation issues
with Disney over her Lizzie McGuire character, Disney quickly replaced
her in the movie with Lindsay Lohan, who was about to appear in
their remake of Freaky Friday.
After a stint on the soap opera, “Another
World”, the young Lohan got her big break when she played dual
roles in the 1998 Disney remake of The Parent Trap. It did
well enough that when Disney decided to do a remake of another
one of their popular movies, Freaky Friday, she was paired
with Jamie Lee Curtis for the age-changing comedy. Freaky Friday ended
up doing better than The Lizzie McGuire Movie last summer,
not just opening weekend, but overall, something that might have
convinced Disney that Lohan was able to showcase this film on her
own. The question is whether enough of the young girls who saw Freaky
Friday have taken Lohan to heart as another voice for their
generation like Duff or Reese Witherspoon or whether she’s as disposable
as Amanda Bynes was when she starred in What a Girl Wants,
another similar movie.
In the summer of 2000, two successful movies took on the tribulations of being
a young woman trying to make it in a competitive world, Kirsten Dunst’s Bring
It On and Coyote Ugly, starring Piper Perabo as a young woman who
makes the opposite move from New Jersey to New York City in search of success
as a singer. Their success proved that there was definitely an audience of
young girls looking for a movie heroine to call their own, and since then,
every studio has been looking for the next big superstar. This led to a huge
influx of teen girl targeted movies last summer with Freaky Friday being
the only big hit.
A few months ago, Disney decided to release the movie this coming weekend,
a bit of a last minute decision much like Fox’s release of Catch
That Kid a few weeks back, but Disney has had a bit more lead time
and they’re much stronger at promoting movies. On the other hand, Confessions
of a Teenage Drama Queen has one of the longest and most unwieldy titles
since Win
a Date with Tad Hamilton, another teen targeted romantic comedy that
bombed just last month. After movies like that and Mandy Moore’s Chasing
Liberty have bombed, one can’t imagine that this last minute mover would
be able to get the attention of its primary teen audience, although those other
movies didn’t have the power of Disney behind them either.
This looks like another lame teen girl movie and considering the lack of success
of the last few offerings, this genre might have peaked last summer. The Disney
name will help this one a bit, as will the bombardment of promotion they’ve
done, but it’s unlikely that a little known actress like Lindsay Lohan could
sell such a dumb movie where someone like Mandy Moore couldn’t. Expect it to
end up somewhere amidst the returning favorites with a weekend take of $8 to
10 million this weekend.
Related Comparisons:
|
Title |
Release Date |
Theater Count |
Previous Box Office (in millions) |
Weekend Box Office (in millions) |
Average |
Total Box Office |
|
Freaky Friday |
8/6/03 |
2,954 |
$22.20 |
$7,516 |
$110.22 |
|
|
The Parent Trap |
7/31/98 |
2,247 |
$5.06 |
$11.15 |
$4,962 |
$66.30 |
|
Win a Date with Tad Hamilton |
1/23/04 |
2,711 |
$7.32 |
$2,700 |
$13.11 |
|
|
Chasing Liberty |
1/9/04 |
2,400 |
$6.08 |
$2,534 |
$12.01 |
|
|
Uptown Girls |
8/15/03 |
2,495 |
$11.28 |
$4,520 |
$37.10 |
|
|
How to Deal |
7/18/03 |
2,319 |
$5.81 |
$2,505 |
$14.11 |
|
|
The Lizzie McGuire Movie |
5/2/03 |
2,825 |
$17.34 |
$6,138 |
$42.00 |
|
|
What a Girl Wants |
4/4/03 |
2,964 |
$11.43 |
$3,858 |
$35.99 |
|
|
Coyote Ugly |
8/4/00 |
2,653 |
$17.32 |
$6,528 |
$60.76 |
EUROTRIP (DreamWorks
Studios)|
Title |
Release Date |
Theater Count |
Weekend Box Office (in millions) |
Average |
Total Box Office |
|
Old School |
2/21/03 |
2,689 |
$17.45 |
$6,491 |
$75.15 |
|
Road Trip |
5/19/00 |
2,530 |
$15.48 |
$6,119 |
$68.53 |
|
The Rules of Attraction |
10/11/02 |
1,437 |
$2.53 |
$1,762 |
$6.53 |
|
National Lampoon's Van Wilder |
4/5/02 |
2,022 |
$7.30 |
$3,612 |
$21.01 |
|
Tomcats |
3/30/01 |
2,617 |
$6.41 |
$2,448 |
$13.56 |
|
National Lampoon's Senior Trip |
9/8/95 |
1,397 |
$2.18 |
$1,560 |
$4.69 |
|
National Lampoon's European Vacation |
7/26/85 |
1,546 |
$12.33 |
$7,975 |
$49.36 |
|
National Lampoon's Vacation |
7/29/83 |
1,175 |
$8.33 |
$7,092 |
$61.39 |
|
National Lampoon's Animal House |
7/28/78 |
12 |
$0.28 |
$23,044 |
$120.09 |
WELCOME TO MOOSEPORT (20th Century
Fox)|
Title |
Release Date |
Theater Count |
Previous Box Office (in millions) |
Weekend Box Office (in millions) |
Average |
Total Box Office |
|
Ice Age |
3/15/02 |
3,316 |
$46.30 |
$13,966 |
$176.39 |
|
|
The Royal Tenenbaums |
1/4/02 |
751 |
$12.19 |
$8.51 |
$11,344 |
$52.35 |
|
Heist |
11/9/01 |
1,891 |
$8.01 |
$4,236 |
$23.48 |
|
|
Heartbreakers |
3/23/01 |
2,750 |
$11.80 |
$4,291 |
$40.28 |
|
|
Absolute Power |
2/14/97 |
2,568 |
$16.77 |
$6,530 |
$50.07 |
|
|
Get Shorty |
10/20/95 |
1,612 |
$12.70 |
$7,878 |
$72.00 |
|
|
State and Main |
1/12/01 |
459 |
$2.37 |
$1.74 |
$3,802 |
$6.92 |
|
Groundhog Day |
2/12/93 |
1,640 |
$14.65 |
$8,933 |
$70.83 |
|
|
Dick |
8/6/99 |
1,522 |
$1.18 |
$2.21 |
$1,452 |
$6.24 |
|
Election |
5/7/99 |
827 |
$0.53 |
$3.16 |
$3,821 |
$14.88 |
|
Primary Colors |
3/20/98 |
1,965 |
$12.05 |
$6,132 |
$39.30 |
|
|
Wag the Dog |
1/9/98 |
1,665 |
$1.96 |
$7.78 |
$4,673 |
$43.04 |
|
The American President |
11/17/95 |
1,508 |
$1.12 |
$10.01 |
$6,638 |
$60.02 |
|
Dave |
5/7/93 |
1,155 |
$7.31 |
$6,329 |
$63.27 |
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