Preview and Projections for the Weekend of December 24, 2004
By Edward Douglas -

Greetings and welcome back to the Weekend Warrior, your weekly guide to the weekend's new movies. Tune in every Tuesday for the latest look at the upcoming weekend, and then check back on Friday for last minute updates based on actual theatre counts.

Update 12.23.04 -- Almost forgot...Merry Christmas (or other holiday of choice) and a Happy New Year! In honor of the holiday and long-time reader Neil Linden, the green is back just for Christmas!

WEEKEND PROJECTIONS - updated 12.22.04

A busy, busy Christmas weekend sees four new movies opening in wide release and two high-profile limited films expanding wider. The strongest of them would have to be Meet the Fockers, the sequel to the 2000 hit comedy, once again reuniting Ben Stiller and Robert DeNiro with the added star power of Dustin Hoffman and Barbara Streisand playing Stiller’s parents, the Fockers. It kicks off its holiday box office run on Wednesday, and shouldn’t have a problem knocking Jim Carrey and Lemony Snicket’s A Series of Unfortunate Events out of the top spot. Expanding to less than half as many theatres, The Aviator, Martin Scorsese’s biopic of millionaire Howard Hughes, as played by Leonardo DiCaprio, should bring in a large audience hoping to see what the buzz is about after its multiple Golden Globe nominations. It will be entering the fray for third place with Fat Albert, a live action family comedy based on Bill Cosby’s popular ‘70s cartoon character, which will offer a more optimistic worldview than Lemony Snicket. Andrew Lloyd Webber’s hit musical The Phantom of the Opera is brought to the big screen by director Joel Schumacher (Phone Booth) with Gerard Butler playing the title role and Emmy Rossum playing his love interest. Opening in a moderate 600 theatres on Wednesday, it should bring in the original musical’s millions of fans. After a short run in New York and Los Angeles, Wes Anderson’s The Life Aquatic With Steve ZIssou starring Bill Murray as the titular oceanographer expands across the country on Christmas Day, and it should get a boost from Murray’s Oscar nom from Sophia Coppola’s Lost in Translation to get into the low end of the Top 10. On the other hand, Dimension Films’ release of the horror film Darkness by an obscure Spanish filmmaker likely won’t make it into the Top 10 making $3 million or less. Being Christmas Eve and a traveling day, expect Friday to be relatively slow, but Saturday and Sunday should pick up and see a lot of theatre traffic. And for those who still can’t find a movie to see, there’s also a dozen or so other movies opening in the major cities in the next two weeks, as you can see in Under the Radar!

TW	LW	Title	Weekend (in millions)	Change	# Of Theaters	Average	Week
1	New	Meet the Fockers	$32.0	N/A	3,518	$9,096	1
2	1	Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events	$22.5	-25%	3,623	$6,210	2
3	14	The Aviator	$12.5*	1375%	1,795	$6,964*	2
4	New	Fat Albert	$11.7+	N/A	2,674	$4,375	1
5	2	Ocean's 12	$11.5	-35%	3,290	$3,495	3
6	New	The Phantom of the Opera	$7.7	N/A	622	$12,379	1
7	4	The Polar Express	$7.0	-18%	2,618	$2,674	7
8	3	Spanglish	$5.8	-34%	2,441	$2,376	2
9	29	The Life Aquatic With Steve Zissou	$5.5*	5700%	1,105	$4,977*	3
10	6	National Treasure	$3.9	-36%	2,201	$1,772	5
			Est. Weekend Total $120.10	Est. Avg. Drop-Off 989%		Est. Average PTA $5,432

*These movies expand wide on Saturday, but this amount includes the Friday business in select cities
+Opens on Saturday

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MEET THE FOCKERS (Universal Studios/DreamWorks Pictures)
Starring: Robert De Niro, Ben Stiller, Dustin Hoffman, Barbara Streisand, Teri Polo, Blythe Danner, Owen Wilson
Directed by: Jay Roach (Austin Powers, Meet the Parents, Austin Powers in Goldmember, Austin Powers in the Spy that Shagged Me)
Genres: Comedy
Rated PG-13
Theatre Count: 3,518
Tagline: “And you thought your parents were embarrassing.”

After convincing his fiancee’s parents to allow them to marry, Greg Focker (Ben Stiller) now has to deal with what happens when her ex-CIA father Jack Byrnes (Robert De Niro) meets his own wacky ex-hippy parents, played by Dustin Hoffman and Barbara Streisand.

The pairing of Ben Stiller and Robert De Niro in 2000’s Meet the Parents signified the birth of a new type of buddy comedy in that the conflict in personalities was still there to create the humor…but they weren’t cops. Instead, Jay Roach took the universal theme of having to meet a boyfriend or girlfriend’s parents to create a comedy that everyone could appreciate. Its astounding $28 million opening weekend was only surpassed by its impressive $160 million gross.

The original film also did well because of the creative way two very different actors were paired off against each other. When Meet the Parents came out, Ben Stiller had already had a hit comedy from the Farrelly Brothers’ There’s Something About Mary, but had done little to sustain the popularity besides a few appearances on MTV. Still, that helped Stiller build up an audience of 16 to 30 year old comedy fans, while the thought of De Niro doing a comic role—essentially spoofing the usual stereotypes he plays in films—was a great attraction to older audiences. It’s four years later and the movie is still a popular favorite, although only Stiller seems to have capitalized on its success.

2004 has been a great year for the second-generation comic, kicking it off with Along Came Polly, a romantic comedy by Meet the Parents writer John Hamburg that matched him with Friends star Jennifer Aniston. That earned almost $30 million over Martin Luther King Jr. weekend and became his first of three films in 2004 to earn over $80 million. Stiller reteamed with Owen Wilson, who returns for a small recurring part as Greg’s competition Kevin in Fockers, in Todd Phillips’ reinvention of the television cop show Starsky and Hutch. It proved far more successful than other similar buddy cop movies, grossing about the same as Along Came Polly. Stiller continued his trifecta with the sports comedy Dodgeball: A True Underdogs Story, which made over $30 million opening weekend, beating out the latest Steven Spielberg-Tom Hanks collaboration, The Terminal; that grossed over $100 million thanks to its summer release. Stiller’s only real disappointment this year was his long shelved pairing with Jack Black, Envy, which did as poorly as last year’s Duplex with Drew Barrymore.

De Niro hasn’t done very much comedy since Meet the Parents, although he did try to follow-up his successful pairing with Billy Crystal in the gangster comedy Analyze This with a December 2002 sequel that barely made a third of the original. His own attempt at a buddy cop comedy, Showtime with Eddie Murphy, did only slightly better. Other than that, De Niro has mainly been doing drama and thrillers, none of which have done that much better, but most recently, he provided his voice to DreamWorks animated family comedy Shark Tale.

Fans of the original movie will already be looking forward to this movie, but the experience will be enhanced by the introduction of Dustin Hoffman and Barbara Streisand into the mix. Hoffman has been everywhere this fall, starring in David O. Russell’s I Heart Huckabees, playing a comic role in Johnny Depp’s Finding Neverland, as well as a few secret cameos. It’s a great return for the actor who hadn’t been in many comedies since 1997’s Wag the Dog. On the other hand, the 62-year-old Barbara Streisand has been in hiding since 1996, when she directed and acted in the drama The Mirror Has Two Faces. Meet the Fockers also returns the multi-talented singer to the madcap comedy roots from her ‘70s movies like For Pete’s Sake, What’s Up Doc?, Funny Girl, for which she won an Oscar. Streisand’s resurfacing should bring in a lot of older moviegoers and her beloved fans that have missed her.

That said, people are really starting to get sick of sequels. In the last few months alone, the sequel to the hit Bridget Jones’ Diary failed to make waves and then Stephen Soderbergh’s sequel to Ocean’s 11 made only slight more opening weekend than the original did. Now if you figure that a movie that grossed over $180 million spawned a sequel that may barely make half that, you have to wonder how another ensemble piece like Meet the Fockers may fare. The jaded critics that have seen it are already tearing the sequel apart, because let’s face it, not every movie can be Sideways.

At least director Jay Roach has some experience making popular sequels, having helmed the Austin Powers franchise that made Mike Myers a worldwide superstar. Since Roach kept all of the things that people enjoyed and didn’t mess with the formula much, each successive film made more than the last. The same may be said for Meet the Fockers, because unlike Analyze That and even Ocean’s Twelve, the sequel seems warranted, even being hinted about at the end of the first movie.

This sequel is the type of movie that should have an appeal across a wide range of demographics—old, young, male and female—which makes it the perfect holiday comedy. Any perceived competition for this market from movies like Spanglish and Fat Albert shouldn’t have too much effect on Fockers’ ability to bring in a large audience this weekend.

Related Comparisons
Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Meet the Parents	10/6/00	2,614		$28.62	$10,949	$166.23
Dodgeball: A True Underdog Story	6/18/04	2,694		$30.07	$11,162	$114.06
Starsky and Hutch	3/5/04	3,185		$28.10	$8,824	$88.20
Along Came Polly	1/16/04	2,984		$32.45	$10,875	$87.86
Analyze That	12/6/02	2,635		$11.03	$4,186	$31.82
Analyze This	3/5/99	2,518		$18.38	$7,299	$106.69
Showtime	3/15/02	2,917		$15.01	$5,142	$37.95
The Mirror has Two Faces	11/15/96	2,489		$12.21	$4,906	$41.27
Austin Powers II: The Spy Who Shagged Me	6/11/99	3,312	$2.52	$54.57	$16,582	$205.40
Austin Powers	5/2/97	2,187		$9.55	$4,367	$53.82

Bottom Line: The sequel to the hit comedy couldn’t open in a better weekend, although its business may be spread out over the next week rather than slam theatres opening weekend, since its first Friday will be the relatively slow Christmas Eve. Either way, with few other strong mainstream comedies, it should be able to hold sway over the box office until mid-January.

Projection: $12 to 13 million Wednesday and Thursday, another $30 to 35 million on the weekend and close to $150 million total

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ANDREW LLOYD WEBBER’S THE PHANTOM OF THE OPERA (Warner Brothers)
Starring: Gerard Butler, Emmy Rossum, Patrick Wilson, Minnie Driver, Miranda Richardson
Directed by: Joel Schumacher (A Time to Kill, Tigerland, Phone Booth, Batman Forever, Batman and Robin, The Lost Boys)
Genres: Musical, Drama, Romance
Rated PG-13
Theatre Count: 622
Tagline: “The waiting is over, let the fantasy begin.”

Andrew Lloyd Webber’s hit Broadway musical comes to the big screen as the mad disfigured musical genius known as “The Phantom” (Gerard Butler) terrorizes a 19^th Century French opera house in order to get the attention of his beautiful young protégé Christine (Emmy Rossum).

The origins of Webber’s most well-known opera dates back to the Gaston Leroux’s 1911 novel, which was subsequently made into a classic silent film starring Lon Chaney and various other film adaptations. After writing hit musicals like Cats, Evita and Jesus Christ Superstar, Webber thought the inherent romance in the original novel would make a great musical, and so The Phantom of the Opera debuted in London’s West End in 1986. Since then, it has been seen by almost 80 million people and taken in $3.2 billion as the second longest running Broadway musical to Cats. Originally, Webber was going to turn it into a movie in 1988 with his then wife and the original Christine, Sarah Brightman, but the project was backburned when they got divorced. Joel Schumacher was always attached to direct the film, because Webber was impressed with his blockbuster The Lost Boys, so a few years ago, they two got the project back on track.

Tons of Hollywood stars wanted to be in this movie, but Schumacher and Webber decided to go with virtual unknowns who had not been seen much on screen. The most known actor is Scottish actor Gerard Butler, playing the Phantom, who is returning to the horror roots of his earlier role playing the title character in Dracula 2000, which opened on the exact same day in 2000. Butler followed that up with a number of action roles in movies like Reign of Fire, Timeline and starred opposite Angelina Jolie in the disastrous sequel Lara Croft Tomb Raider: The Cradle of Life. For a long time, the Scotsman has also been a fan favorite to replace Pierce Brosnan as James Bond, probably due to his dapper good looks and Scottish accent.

After playing Sean Penn’s ill-fated daughter in Clint Eastwood’s Mystic River, 18-year-old Emmy Rossum’s only big movie was Roland Emmerich’s summer blockbuster The Day After Tomorrow earlier this year. Although she would seem like an odd choice for Christine, her earlier childhood was spent in the children’s chorus at the Metropolitan Opera, so she felt right at home on the sets of Phantom. The same goes for Patrick Wilson as Christine’s suitor and the Phantom’s competition Raul, who had a long history performing in musical theatre before his first break starring in Mike Nichols’ adaptation of Angels in America for HBO, and then in Disney’s The Alamo. A few diehard Phantom fans may be upset that Schumacher went with such young choices for these two key roles. Minnie Driver and Miranda Richardson, both fairly known actresses, round out the cast in featured roles.

This isn’t Webber’s first big screen musical adaptation as Norman (Rollerball) Jewison turned Jesus Christ Superstar into a movie in 1973. Webber wasn’t very involved in that nor was he involved in the 1996 version of his musical Evita, starring Madonna and Antonio Banderas, who was hotly rumored to play the Phantom for a bit. Evita did win Webber an Oscar for best song, as well as getting a number of technical nominations, while grossing $50 million in theatres. Other than those two high profile films, many of his musicals have been presented on television and captured on record and video, making him one of the most well known composers of the 20^th Century. Besides being his most well-known and successful musical, The Phantom of the Opera has been a labor of love for the composer, taking 15 years to finally get it into theatres, and it’s the first major film that he was involved with throughout, which certainly gives it a lot more credibility.

The only negative angle on the movie comes from the fact that director Joel Schumacher is often associated with the number of memorable dogs that he has helmed, and the man is somewhat reviled for his destruction of the Batman franchise during the late ‘90s. Then again, he’s also made quality movies like the drama A Time to Kill and last year’s thriller Phone Booth with his “discovery” Colin Farrell found itself a decent sized audience.

Chicago and Evita both were given successful platform releases in New York and Los Angeles before expanding further, but Warner Brothers is releasing The Phantom of the Opera a lot wider right off the bat to take advantage of the Christmas holidays. Granted, it will probably do better in the big cities where musical theatre is commonplace. On top of that, the many tourists who have seen the musical while vacationing in New York should be excited by the opportunity to see it again on the big screen. The lack of star power might not help much, but the millions who loved the original musical will likely rush out to see this over the holiday week and positive word-of-mouth should help its expansion nationwide on January 21, as it takes advantage of any Golden Globe wins or Oscar nominations. (It’s more likely to sweep the technical categories like costumes and set design rather than getting awards for Schumacher or the cast.)

Related Comparisons
Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Chicago	2/7/03	1,841	$53.02	$10.79	$5,859	$170.68
Moulin Rouge	6/1/01	2,279	$0.68	$13.72	$6,019	$57.22
Evita	1/10/97	704	$2.85	$8.38	$11,903	$50.02
Phone Booth	4/4/03	2,481		$15.02	$6,054	$46.56
A Time to Kill	7/26/96	2,123	$4.81	$14.82	$6,981	$108.77
The Day After Tomorrow	5/28/04	3,425		$85.81	$25,053	$186.58
Timeline	11/28/03	2,787	$3.98	$8.44	$3,028	$19.44
Reign of Fire	7/12/02	2,629		$15.63	$5,946	$43.06
Dracula 2000	12/22/00	2,204		$6.23	$2,827	$33.00

Bottom Line: The success of Chicago and Moulin Rouge point to a lot of demand and interest in the musical genre from mainstream America, and the heightened involvement of Andrew Lloyd Webber in hugely popular musical will make this a see for many musical lovers over the holiday season. The lack of big name stars and the lack of critical support might make it a harder immediate sell outside the big cities.

Projection: $3 million on Wednesday and Thursday, $7 to 8 million on the weekend, and between $80 and 90 million total.

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THE AVIATOR (Miramax Films)
Starring: Leonardo DiCaprio, Cate Blanchett, John C. Reilly, Kate Beckinsale, Jude Law, Adam Scott, Danny Huston, Matt Ross, Ian Holm, Alan Alda, Frances Conroy, Vincent Laresca, Justin Shilton, Brent Spiner, Josie Maran, Sam Hennings, Willem Dafoe, Stanley DeSantis, Jacob Davich
Directed by: Martin Scorsese (Taxi Driver, Good Fellas, Casino, Gangs of New York,
Genres: Biopic, Adventure
Rated PG-13
Theatre Count: 1,795
Tagline: “Some men dream the future. He built it.”

The life of the late Howard Hughes is realized by director Martin Scorsese and his star, Leonardo DiCaprio, in this biopic that shows the millionaire’s eccentric ventures into Hollywood filmmaking and breakthrough feats of aviation by breaking speed records.

The name Howard Hughes has likely been lost to time, as few of those under 30 will know who he was or what he did. In fact, he was a legend in his time, a true celebrity always in the news and tabloids for his exploits. While he wasn’t bedding Hollywood starlets, he was devoting his time to designing planes that would break speed records and carry people across the country and the world. Most of that is covered in Scorsese’s second biopic of his career, after directing the classic boxing drama Raging Bull which starred Robert De Niro as boxer Jake LaMotta. Scorsese’s last film, Gangs of New York, opened two years ago, making $9 million in a similar number of theatres, but it didn’t have nearly as much advance buzz going into its release. Although Scorsese received an Oscar nomination for the historical epic, it wasn’t one of his better films, and The Aviator’s subject matter seems like it would have a lot wider appeal. Critics have already gotten behind the film, awarding Scorsese a Golden Globe nomination as well as a number of critics’ awards.

Scorsese once again works with his Gangs of New York star, Leonardo DiCaprio, a respected actor who has also been a popular teen idol thanks to his youth and good looks. A former child actor, DiCaprio got his start in movies like What’s Eating Gilbert Grape, but the turning point in his career was James Cameron casting him opposite Kate Winslet in Titanic, the uncontested highest grossing American film ever. After that, he appeared in The Beach from 28 Days Later director Danny Boyle and The Man in the Iron Mask. 2002 was his big comeback year, as a week after Gangs opened, he starred with Tom Hanks in the Steven Spielberg directed biopic Catch Me If You Can, about the high stakes conman Frank Abagnale, another film that let the young actor play a man at various points in his life. Catch Me If You Can made $48 million in its first five days, although it opened in twice as many theatres as Gangs. DiCaprio has also received a Golden Globe nomination for The Aviator.

DiCaprio’s supporting cast is just as impressive with actress Cate Blanchett getting the most attention for her portrayal of Katherine Hepburn, and you guessed it, she’s also gotten a Golden Globe nom and is on the fast track to the Oscars for her performance. (She also appears in Wes Anderson’s Life Aquatic this weekend.) The British actress has been getting a lot of attention in the last few years, mostly from her role as the Elf Queen in The Lord of the Rings trilogy, but she also has starred in recent indies like Jim Jarmusch’s Coffee and Cigarettes and Joel Schumacher’s Veronica Guerrin. Other Hughes love interests include Eva Gardner, as played in by Underworld and Pearl Harbor star Kate Beckinsale, and Jean Harlow, played by No Doubt singer Gwen Stefani in her big screen debut. Of course, it wouldn’t be a movie without Jude Law making his obligatory appearance, in this case as actor Errol Flynn. Considering his recent box office record, Scorsese might be wise to edit him out of the movie completely before it goes wide. (Other featured roles include John C. Reilly, Alec Baldwin, and M.A.S.H. star Alan Alda.)

The combination of a respected director with such a talented ensemble cast should allow The Aviator to get a lot of the business that flocked to Gangs and Catch Me over the holidays two years ago. It already opened in just over 40 theatres last weekend, where it earned $850,000, which should be raised to over a million by the time it expands nationwide on Saturday. The buzz surrounding the movie should allow it a similar expansion as the Ron Howard-Russell Crowe biopic A Beautiful Mind.

Related Comparisons
Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Catch Me If You Can	12/27/02	3,156	$18.60	$30.08	$9,532	$144.96
Gangs of New York	12/20/02	1,504		$9.12	$6,051	$77.81
The Beach	2/11/00	2,546		$15.28	$6,002	$39.78
Titanic	12/19/97	2,674		$28.64	$10,711	$600.79
Casino	11/24/95	1,616		$9.95	$6,157	$42.42
Cold Mountain	12/26/03	2,163	$4.51	$14.57	$6,738	$78.38
A Beautiful Mind	1/4/02	1,853	$21.21	$16.57	$8,940	$170.71

Bottom Line: With a number of Golden Globe nominations and critics’ kudos under its belt, The Aviator finally looks like the hit that Scorsese has been waiting for. It should do very well over the Christmas holiday among guys 25 and older, and then maintain business over January and February as it receives a bunch of Oscar nominations as well.

Projection: $11 to 13 million over the three-day Christmas weekend and strong enough legs to bring in $70 to 80 million

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DARKNESS (Dimension Films)
Starring: Anna Paquin, Lena Olin, Iain Glen, Giancarlo Giannini, Fele Martinez, Stephan Enquist, Fermi Reixach
Directed by: Jaume Balaguero (Alicia, Dias sin Luz, Los sin Nombre)
Genres: Horror, Thriller
Rated R
Theatre Count (estimated): 1,700
Tagline: “Some secrets should never come to light.” (Kind of like this movie?)

A family moves into an old house in the country, but the daughter Regina (Anna Paquin) discovers a horrifying secret that comes out at nighttime and learns that the house used to be the site of a sacrificial ritual gone wrong.

Haunted houses and ghosts have been a staple at the movies since their inception, with one memorable high point being Steven Spielberg and Tobe Hooper’s 1982 hit Poltergeist. In more recent years, it has been joined by remakes of The Haunting and The House on Haunted Hill. In the last few years, the ante has been raised with many foreign countries getting into the genre. Most notably, Asia has produced some of the most unique ghost movies with this year’s hit horror film The Grudge being based on one.

Darkness is directed by Spanish director Jaume Balaguero, who hopes to follow in the footsteps of Alejandro Amenabar who got his big Hollywood break in 2001 with the English language ghost story The Others, starring Nicole Kidman. After a modest $14 million opening in roughtly the same number of theatres as Darkness, it ended up grossing almost $100 million. Dimension Films, who also had given Mexican director Guillermo del Toro his first big break with Mimic as well as being the prime benefactor of Robert Rodriguez, must have thought that any Spanish director doing a horror film will end up with box office gold, which may be the only reason this got greenlit so quickly.

At least it has an actress with a credible fanbase in Anna Paquin, best known as Rogue from the X-Men movies. Years earlier, she achieved some acclaim as the young actress won an Oscar for her supporting role in Jane Campion’s The Piano with Holly Hunter. Since then, she’s continued to make indie films, having memorable roles in Spike Lee’s The 25^th Hour and the military drama Buffalo Soldiers with Joaquin Phoenix, but she has yet to prove she can carry, let alone sell, a film despite being a favorite among drooling guys. Paquin’s co-stars are made up of an international cast that includes Fele Martinez, one of the two stars of Pedro Almodovar’s Bad Education, currently in limited release, and Giancarlo Giannini, who had the misfortune of starring opposite Madonna in Guy Richie’s disastrous Swept Away. With that in mind, the movie is being sold more on the horror premise.

Darkness was originally to be released in the summer following The Others, but then it was moved around the release schedule for years, even rumored to be going straight to video earlier this year like many other Dimension horror movies. (Don’t even get me started on the name changes as it fluctuated between Darkness, The Darkness and The Dark.) Mere days after the remake of The Grudge opened to the tune of almost $40 million, Dimension put this on its schedule for Christmas, maybe hoping to recapture the success they had with Wes Craven’s slasher flick Scream over Christmas in 1996. With far less promotion than other movies—it’s doubtful that it will even be screened for critics before opening—few diehard horror fans will even know about the movie’s existence. Those that do probably won’t have that much interest, since it looks a bit too much like Wes Craven Presents: They or the similar named Darkness Falls, neither which did very well.

Related Comparisons
Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Buffalo Soldiers	7/25/03	6		$0.03	$5,163	$0.35
X2: X-Men United	5/2/03	3,741		$85.56	$22,871	$214.95
25th Hour	1/10/03	490	$0.72	$2.83	$5,781	$13.08
The X-Men	7/14/00	3,025		$54.47	$18,007	$157.30
Cold Creek Manor	9/19/03	2,035		$8.19	$4,025	$21.38
Darkness Falls	1/24/03	2,837		$12.02	$4,239	$32.54
Wes Craven Presents: They	11/29/02	1,615	$2.41	$5.14	$3,185	$12.69
The Others	8/10/01	1,678		$14.09	$8,397	$96.08
Scream	12/20/96	1,413		$6.35	$4,494	$103.03

Bottom Line: The haunted house genre has had a bit of a comeback in recent years, but despite the success Dimension Films had with Scream and The Others, it’s going to be hard to sell this film that just narrowly avoided a video-only release. Dimension Films’ sudden decision to release this two-year-old film theatrically over Christmas is more likely just their way to unload the old junk before finding a new buyer.

Projection: $3 to 4 million in its first two-days, but not much more after that.

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FAT ALBERT (20^th Century Fox)
Starring: Kenan Thompson, Kyla Pratt, William H. Cosby, Jr., Omari Grandberry, Raven-Symone, Jermaine Williams, Aaron Frazier, Jeremy Suarez, Keith Robinson, Dania Ramirez, Marques Houston, Shedrack Anderson III, Alphonso McAuley, J. Mack Slaughter
Directed by: Joel Zwick (My Big Fat Greek Wedding)
Genres: Comedy, Television
Rated PG
Theatre Count: 2,674
Tagline: “Hey! Hey! Hey! Christmas Day”

Bill Cosby’s famous cartoon kids come to life in this family comedy about how the big-boned teen, played by Saturday Night Live’s Kenan Thompson, breaks out of the cartoon world into modern day Philadelphia.

Based on Cosby’s stand-up routine, Fat Albert and his urban pals spawned a series of successful cartoons during the ‘70s and ‘80s that were as educational as they were entertaining and funny. Most people over 30 will remember watching them on Saturday mornings, although the characters have not been as prominent in recent years as popular cartoons like Yu-Gi-Oh and SpongeBob SquarePants, and other modern alternatives. In recent years, animated movies based on cartoons have done only moderately well, with some memorably live action bombs like Josie and the Pussycats and The Adventures of Rocky and Bullwinkle. On the other hand, two movies starring the canine ghostbuster Scooby-Doo have done incredibly well at the box office, showing that the classics can still bring in family audiences.

Unlike many of those other cartoon-based films, the creator of Fat Albert was actively involved with the movie, since Bill Cosby co-wrote the screenplay as well as appearing in the movie. Cosby was also masterminded the ‘80s hit sitcom The Cosby Show, which also had a legion of fans that may be interested in this movie. Cosby’s popularity should help give Fat Albert a bit more credibility among the parents who loved the character and want to share it with their kids. Fat Albert also has a more than qualified director in Joel Zwick, who has experience directing television comedies before helming the independent romantic comedy hit My Big Fat Greek Wedding.

A long time ago, a young Kenan Thompson played Russ Tyler in D2 and D3, the sequels to The Mighty Ducks. Shortly after, he joined up with Kel Mitchell as the comedy duo Kenan and Kel, who had a popular WB sitcom and starred in the feature film Good Burger. Since then, he’s had small roles in a bunch of recent urban comedies including Barbershop 2, Love Don’t Cost a Thing and My Baby’s Daddy, while becoming a regular on the cast of Saturday Night Live, NBC’s long-running sketch comedy show. The 17 to 30 year old fans of that show will have little interest in Fat Albert, and other than Thompson and Cosby, the rest of the cast is made up of unknowns.

The lack of stars shouldn’t be a problem, but so much time has passed since Fat Albert had any prominence, that it’s going to be harder for the movie to find the success of the Scooby Doo movies. The idea of ‘70s television characters entering the real world has been explored before with The Brady Bunch Movie and its sequel, and even the movie based on The Adams Family used a similar type premise, but both of them may have been better known from decades of reruns.

Although the movie is sweeter and more innocent than other family fare currently in theatres, Fat Albert the movie looks like it could be quite dumb, which will make it harder to convince parents wanting to bring their youngest kids. Then again, the same could be said for the live action version of Garfield, which earned over $20 million its opening weekend, as well as both Scooby-Doo movies, neither which got good reviews. FOX has been pushing the movie as being from the makers of last year’s Christmas hit Cheaper by the Dozen—the only connection is that it’s distributed by the same studio—but it’s more likely to get the same audience that saw Cedric the Entertainer’s Johnson Family Vacation earlier this year.

Related Comparisons
Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Barbershop 2: Back in Business	2/6/04	2,711		$24.24	$8,942	$64.96
Love Don't Cost a Thing	12/12/03	1,844		$6.32	$3,425	$21.59
Good Burger	7/25/97	1,887		$7.06	$3,741	$23.69
Garfield	6/11/04	3,094		$21.73	$7,023	$75.18
Scooby-Doo	6/14/02	3,447		$54.16	$15,712	$153.29
Josie and the Pussycats	4/13/01	2,556	$1.53	$4.56	$1,784	$14.25
The Adventures of Rocky and Bullwinkle	6/30/00	2,458		$6.81	$2,771	$26.00
The Brady Bunch Movie	2/17/95	1,822		$14.83	$8,139	$46.55
Johnson Family Vacation	4/9/04	1,317	$2.44	$9.38	$7,119	$31.18
Cheaper By the Dozen	12/26/03	3,298	$8.18	$27.56	$8,356	$128.03

Bottom Line: Folks looking for something a bit more innocent and optimistic than Lemony Snicket will have this as a second choice, and the popularity of Bill Cosby and his character should help it do especially well among urban family audiences. With only two days—and one being Christmas—it may not do that well its opening weekend, but it should maintain its business over the holidays.

Projection: $11 to 12 million over the two-day Christmas weekend and $40 to 45 million overall.

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THE LIFE AQUATIC WITH STEVE ZISSOU (Touchstone Pictures)
Starring: Bill Murray, Owen Wilson, Cate Blanchett, Willem Dafoe, Jeff Goldblum, Angelika Huston, Michael Gambon, Robyn Cohen, Bud Court
Directed by: Wes Anderson (Bottle Rocket, Rushmore, The Royal Tenenbaums)
Genres: Comedy, Action, Adventure
Rated R
Theatre Count: 1,105

Oceanographer and filmmaker Steve Zissou (Bill Murray) heads out for his greatest mission, hunting down the Jaguar Shark that killed his best friend. Joining Team Zissou for this adventure are his illegitimate son (Owen Wilson) and a young pregnant reporter (Cate Blanchett), who only complicate matters, as the crew faces pirates on the high seas.

Filmmaker Wes Anderson continues to confound the critics and moviegoers with his choice in subject matter, this time taking his love for old Jacques Costeau documentaries to tell the human story of a documentary filmmaker trying to stay in touch with his family. After getting attention with his debut Bottle Rocket, the film that introduced both Luke and Owen Wilson, Anderson made the critically acclaimed collegiate comedy Rushmore. That was a cult hit, but his next film, the 2001 ensemble comedy The Royal Tenenbaums put the filmmaker firmly on the map with its all-star cast of Gene Hackman, Ben Stiller, Gwyneth Paltrow, and of course, the Wilson brothers. After a strong opening in limited release, it ended up grossing over $50 million, while getting Hackman a Golden Globe nomination for his role as the crotchety leader of a dysfunctional family.

Anderson wrote the part of Steve Zissou for Saturday Night Live alum Bill Murray, the comic star who headlined comedy classics from Meatballs and Caddyshack to Ghostbusters. Having played the lead in Rushmore, Murray reunites with Anderson for a second time after playing a smaller role in The Royal Tenenbaums. He hadn’t done much else since the ‘90s until last year, when he starred in Sophia Coppola’s second movie Lost in Translation, which earned Murray his first Oscar nomination, allowing that film to gross almost as much as Tenenbaums. And then, of course, Murray followed that up by providing the voice for Garfield.

The Life Aquatic reunites Anderson with Owen Wilson, who co-wrote and appeared in Anderson’s last three movies. This time, he plays a more dramatic second fiddle role as Zissou’s newfound illegitimate son Ned Plimpton. Wilson has been able to turn his earlier work in Anderson’s films into a successful career as an actor with his biggest solo film being the military action film Behind Enemy Lines. In the time since The Royal Tenenbaums, Wilson appeared in a number of buddy comedies including two TV remakes, I Spy with Eddie Murphy and Starsky and Hutch with regular co-star Ben Stiller. He also reunited with Jackie Chan in Shanghai Knights, a sequel to their breakout Western comedy Shanghai Noon, and starred in the Elmore Leonard adaptation, The Big Bounce, which systematically bombed. Wilson hasn’t proven himself to be as big a draw as some of his co-stars, although he does have a bit of a minor fan base.

Cate Blanchett plays Jane Richardson, a pregnant journalist who comes between father and son, but her role in this takes a back seat to her award-nominated role as Katherine Hepburn in Martin Scorsese’s The Aviator, which also comes out this week. The rest of the impressive cast includes Willem Dafoe, best known as Norman Osborne from the Spider-Man movies, as ZIssou’s right hand man Klaus; Anjelica Huston, another Tenenbaums return engagement, as his wife Eleanor; Jeff Goldblum as Zissou’s main competition Alistair Hennessy; and Dumbledore himself, Michael Gambon, as Drakoulias, Team Zissou’s financer.

The Life Aquatic has been playing exclusively in a single theatre in New York and Los Angeles the last two weekends, averaging around $50,000 per theatre each weekend. After grossing around $500,000 in those two theatres, it expands nationwide on Christmas Day during a busier weekend than Christmases past.

This time around, Anderson collaborated with another indie filmmaker, Noah Baumbach (Kicking and Screaming) which gives The Life Aquatic a distinctively different feel that may turn off his regular fans, and the subject matter is a bit strange, even by Anderson standards, so this may be a harder movie to sell to mass audiences than Tenenbaums. Also, unlike The Royal Tenenbaums, Anderson’s latest has not received any Golden Globe or critics’ nominations either for Anderson or his cast, and reviews haven’t been nearly as favorable. Because of this and the competition, it likely won’t bring in as much business in its wide release as other alternative comedies like Alexander Payne’s About Schmidt. On the other hand, its appeal to a younger audience than Tenenbaums may help it find an audience of out-of-school college types looking for an alternative to the Fockers’ very safe brand of comedy.

Related Comparisons
Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Lost in Translation	9/12/03	864	$9.86	$4.16	$4,819	$44.85
The Royal Tenenbaums	1/4/02	751	$12.19	$8.51	$11,344	$52.35
Rushmore	2/19/99	764	$6.95	$2.80	$3,665	$17.10
Starsky and Hutch	3/5/04	3,185		$28.10	$8,824	$88.20
The Big Bounce	1/30/04	2,304		$3.34	$1,448	$6.47
I Spy	11/1/02	3,182		$12.75	$4,008	$33.11
Behind Enemy Lines	11/30/01	2,770		$19.20	$6,931	$58.77
Adaptation	1/10/03	560	$6.55	$2.64	$4,709	$22.50
About Schmidt	1/3/03	816	$3.49	$8.53	$10,457	$65.00

Bottom Line: Anderson’s built-in fan base scattered across the country should flock to see his latest film, which might have a bit more mainstream appeal than The Royal Tenenbaums, even if it hasn’t gotten nearly as many critical raves. Bill Murray’s newfound credibility should help Life Aquatic do decently, although the busy weekend will keep it from setting attendance records.

Projection: $5 to 6 million in its nationwide expansion, but less than $30 million overall.

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UNDER THE RADAR

Do you live in a major North American city? If so, there are a number of limited release movies worth checking out. And if you don't live in one of the cities in which these movies open, look for some of them to hit your area sometime in the next few months.

Opening in Limited Release:
HOTEL RWANDA (MGM/United Artists)
THE WOODSMAN (Newmarket Films)
IN THE REALMS OF THE UNREAL (Wellspring Media)

Hotel Rwanda is based on the true story of hotel manager Paul Rusesabagina (Don Cheadle) who was able to save the lives of thousands during the 1993 racial genocide in Rwanda. Already nominated for a few Golden Globes, the drama directed by Terry George (In the Name of the Father) opens in New York and Los Angeles over Christmas weekend. MY REVIEW (Coming Soon!)

In Nicole Kassell’s The Woodsman, Kevin Bacon plays a child molester released from jail and trying to get on with his life working at a lumber yard only to run into problems with co-workers and a local detective. With a cast that includes Bacon’s real-life wife Kyra Sedwick, Benjamin Bratt, and rappers Mos Def and Eve, this moving drama based on Steven Fechter’s stageplay opens in New York, Los Angeles and San Francisco on Friday, December 24.

Mini-Review: Although the creepy subject matter is handled tastefully thanks to strong performances from the terrific cast, the minimal plot doesn’t do much to help this stage play make the translation to celluloid, so it will just make people uncomfortable. Rating: 7 out of 10

Jessica Yu’s documentary In the Realms of the Unreal tells the story of Henry Darger, a reclusive janitor who created a 15,000 page illustrated novel of the same name. Darger’s life story and how he created his book is interspersed with animated versions of his fantastic illustrations, all narrated by Dakota Fanning and Larry Pine. The latest film from an Academy Award winning director opens at New York’s Film Forum and in San Francisco on Wednesday.

Mini-Review: A very unique documentary about an amazing man who produced a beautiful piece of fiction based on his own life and background. It is an unprecedented achievement made only more poignant by the impression that Darger must have suffered some horrible tragic past as the impetus for such unique creativity. Rating: 9 out of 10

Opening in New York and Los Angeles on Wednesday, December 22:
THE KEYS TO THE HOUSE (Lions Gate Films)

Gianni Amelio’s drama The Keys to the House is the story of a young father (Kim Rossi Stuart) trying to bond with the disabled son he never knew by taking him to Berlin for rehabilitation, where he meets a woman with a similarly afflicted daughter, played by Swimming Pool’s Charlotte Rampling. Picked by Italy as its choice for Oscar consideration, The Keys to the House opens in New York and Los Angeles on Wednesday.

Mini-Review: Despite the movie not having much of a plot, this touching and tragic relationshiop showcases a fine performance by newcomer Andrea Rossi as the disabled boy as well as Rampling’s impressive language skills. Though a difficult movie to get into, the characters grow on you, creating a unique and ultimately worthwhile film experience. Rating: 8 out of 10

Opening in Los Angeles on December 22:
LES CHORISTES (Miramax Films)

Christophe Baratier’s Les Choristes (The Chorus) is the story of a teacher who tries to bring music to a very strict boarding school. It gets an early release in Los Angeles to make it eligible for the Oscars before its limited release on January 14.

Opening in Los Angeles on December 31:
SKY BLUE (Maxmedia/Endgame Pictures)

Sky Blue is a sci-fi Anime from Korean animator Moon Sang Kim about the elite city of Ecoban that survived a catastrophe that blocked the sun from view, leaving earth a wasteland full of refugees seeking asylum there. In this setting, a young woman finds herself caught in the conflict between the Ecoban authorities and rebel forces. It gets a one-week release at Los Angeles’ Nu Art Theatre before opening officially on February 18.

Opening in New York and Los Angeles on Wednesday, December 29:
THE ASSASSINATION OF RICHARD NIXON (ThinkFilm)
IN GOOD COMPANY (Universal Pictures)
A LOVE SONG FOR BOBBY LONG (Lions Gate Films)
WILLIAM SHAKESPEARE’S THE MERCHANT OF VENICE (Sony Film Classics)

In Niels Mueller’s The Assassination of Richard Nixon, Senn Penn is Samuel Bicke, a disgruntled salesman separated from his wife (Penn’s 21 Grams co-star Naomi Watts) who turns his rage against the system into an elaborate attack on the White House. Five years in the making, the thriller, which also co-stars Hotel Rwanda’s Don Cheadle, opens next Wednesday. MY REVIEW (Coming Soon!)

Dennis Quaid plays an ad executive who suddenly finds himself working for a guy half his age, played by That ‘70s Show star Topher Grace, in the new comedy from American Pie director Paul Weitz. Things only get more complicated when his boss starts dating his daughter, played by Scarlett Johansson. In Good Company opens in New York and Los Angeles on Wednesday with a wide expansion in January. MY REVIEW (Coming Soon!)

Scarlett Johansson also stars in A Love Song for Bobby Long as a young woman forced to live with two alcoholics inhabiting the house of her recently deceased mother. John Travolta plays a washed-out college professor, who doesn’t want her disrupting his drunken bliss. Mini-Review (Coming Soon!)

Al Pacino plays the Jewish loan shark Shylock in an adaptation of William Shakespeare’s The Merchant of Venice directed by Il Postino’s Michael Radford. Shakespeare’s tale is about Shylock’s loan of money to an anti-Semitic royal (Jeremy Irons) and the unreasonable demands made if he were to forfeit on the loan. Mini-Review (Coming Soon!)

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THIS TIME LAST YEAR

Christmas Day fell on a Thursday last year so by the weekend, everyone was out of work and school, giving them plenty of time to go to the movies. Good thing too, because like this year, it was a crowded weekend full of new releases. That didn’t stop Peter Jackson’s The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King from holding onto the top spot with $50 million, putting its gross over the $200 million mark in just twelve days. The Steve Martin comedy remake Cheaper by the Dozen did well over the Christmas weekend, coming in second with over $35 million in its first five days. It ended up taking the most family business away from the big budget live action version of Peter Pan, which only earned $15 million over the same period. The English Patient director Anthony Minghella returned with his adaptation of the Civil war romance Cold Mountain, starring Nicole Kidman, Renee Zellwegger and Jude Law, which grossed $19 million in its first five days in just over 2,100 theatres. The last big movie in wide release was the John Woo directed Paycheck, based on the Phillip K. Dick story and starring Ben Affleck and Kill Bill’s Uma Thurman. It made just over $13 million over Christmas weekend, which wasn’t terrible, but not nearly as well as past Woo films.

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Next week, the Weekend Warrior takes a much-needed weekend off! See you next year!

Copyright 2004 Edward Douglas