Preview and Projections for the Weekend of August 27, 2004
By Edward Douglas -

Greetings and welcome back to the Weekend Warrior, your weekly guide to the weekend's new movies. Tune in every Tuesday for the latest look at the upcoming weekend, and then check back on Friday for last minute updates based on actual theatre counts.

WEEKEND PROJECTIONS - final update 8.26.04

The surprise success (to some) of last week’s Exorcist: The Beginning may finally put to rest the myths of a late August slump for new movies. Whether this weekend’s new movies will survive may be another story. The recent success of horror films bodes well for Anacondas: The Hunt for the Blood Orchid, the sequel to the 1997 hit, which starred Jennifer Lopez and Ice Cube. No one is back for the sequel, but the real star will be the giant CGI snakes and the PG-13 rating will help make it a decent end-of-summer thriller, despite the amount of competition for the same audience. Jet Li’s Hero finally gets released with a decent marketing push over two years after it set box office records in Asia and earned a foreign language Oscar. It should place a strong second behind Anacondas due to the amount of buzz and great reviews surrounding it.The rest of the movies are getting moderate releases under 1,500 theatres showing a lack of confidence from studios and distributors, so the long-shelved psychological thriller Suspect Zero and the family sequel no one asked for, Super Babies: Baby Geniuses 2, both look like they both may have trouble even getting into the Top 10. (Super Babies may end up with roughly $3 million or slightly more.) The sleeper hit of the summer, Napoleon Dynamite continues to expand this weekend, getting into over 700 theatres to add another $2 million to its impressive gains.

TW	LW	Title	Weekend (in millions)	Change	# Of Theaters	Average	Week
1	New	Anacondas: The Hunt for the Blood Orchid	$15.3	N/A	2,905	$5,267	1
2	New	Hero	$11.6*	N/A	2,031	$5,711	1
3	1	Exorcist: the Beginning	$8.4	-51%	2,803	$3,139	2
4	3	The Princess Diaries 2: Royal Engagement	$8.2	-35%	3,200	$2,656	3
5	2	Without a Paddle	$8.0	-43%	2,730	$2,857	2
6	6	Collateral	$6.4	-38%	2,800	$2,286	4
7	5	Open Water	$6.0	-47%	2,709	$2,252	4
8	4	Alien vs. Predator	$5.5	-55%	2,950	$1,864	3
9	7	The Bourne Supremacy	$4.3	-34%	2,200	$2,045	5
10	New	Suspect Zero	$4.0	N/A	1,500	$2,667	1
			Est. Weekend Total $77.70	Est. Avg. Drop-Off -44%		Est. Average PTA $3,056

*As previously stated, Hero received a much wider release than originally reported, so it will likely do closer to $12 million than the original prediction of $9 million.

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ANACONDAS: THE HUNT FOR THE BLOOD ORCHID (Screen Gems)
Starring: Nicholas Hope, Peter Curtin, Eugene Byrd, Morris Chestnut, Nicholas Gonzalez, Matthew Marsden, Johnny Messner, Salli Richardson, Kadee Strickland, Maria Theodorakis, Karl Yune
Directed by: Dwight H. Little (Murder at 1600, Deep Blue)
Genres: Horror, Thriller, Action
Rated PG-13

In the spirit of the 1997 sleeper hit Anaconda, this conceptual sequel has a group of scientists traveling down a river in the Borneo jungle looking for a rare orchid that can help create a youth-preserving formula. Instead, they end up encountering a bunch of deadly giant snakes protecting their prize.

If the double team of Exorcist: The Beginning and Open Water wasn’t enough for horror fans, the menace that made Anaconda such a popular hit is back, but this time, it’s not just one snake terrorizing a new group of treasure hunters. Anaconda opened in late spring 1997, doing decently opening weekend but then finding a lot more business over the early summer. The original movie had an amazing cast of Jennifer Lopez—her first big breakout role--Owen Wilson, Ice Cube and Jon Voigt, but the best this sequel can do is Morris Chestnut, a versatile African American actor best known for romantic comedies like Two Can Play That Game and The Brothers. His closest brush with action so far was his role in Steven Seagel’s 2002 bomb Half Past Dead. It also stars Kadee Strickland, who will be in the American remake of The Grudge in October. The lack of stars like J-Lo and Cube shouldn’t be an issue, since a few weeks ago, Alien vs. Predator proved that a genre movie doesn’t need to have big name stars to do well. Like that film, Anacondas has also been edited to get a PG-13 rating in hopes of getting a younger audience. This may help it against the current R-rated horror films, but it may soften up the gore factor that horror fans crave.

The trailer has received a mixed reaction, maybe since not everyone who saw it even know about the original movie, and on its own, it looks pretty stupid while giving too much away. Either way, the premise is the main selling point, and those who dug the big dumb snake action of the first movie will likely want to see this one as well.

Related Comparisons
Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Anaconda	4/11/97	2,456	$16.62	$6,767	$65.50
Lake Placid	7/16/99	2,095	$10.97	$5,236	$31.65
Jeepers Creepers 2	8/29/03	3,124	$15.13	$4,888	$35.14
Jeepers Creepers	8/31/01	2,944	$15.84	$5,380	$37.81
Half Past Dead	11/15/02	2,113	$7.82	$3,701	$15.36
Two Can Play That Game	9/7/01	1,297	$7.72	$5,953	$22.24
The Brothers	3/23/01	1,378	$10.30	$7,477	$27.46

Bottom Line: Some will think this looks dumb, others will think it looks fun, but those who enjoyed the first movie will flock to see this opening weekend. Unfortunately, the impending slow season and the number of other horror movies geared towards the same audience might keep this from doing that much better than the original.

Projection: $14 to 16 million opening but less than $40 million overall.

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HERO (Miramax Films)
Starring: Jet Li, Tong Leung Chiu-Wai, Maggie Cheung Man-Yuk, Zhang Ziyi, Chen Dao Ming, Donnie Yen, Liu Zhong Yuan, Zheng Tia Yong, Qin Yan, Chang Xiao Yang, Zhang Ya Kun, Ma Wen Hua, Jin Ming, Xu Kuang Hua, Wang Shou Xin, Hei Zi, Cao Hua, Li Lei, Xia Bin, Peng Qiang, Liu Jie
Directed by: Zhang Yimou (Shanghai Triad, Raise the Red Lantern, The Road Home, House of Flying Daggers)
Genres: Action, Drama, War Epic,
Rated PG-13
Tagline: “One man will challenge an empire.”

Jet Li plays the warrior Nameless, who has defeated three assassins sworn to assassinate the king of his region. As he tells the story of how he defeated them, it becomes obvious that every story can be told a number of different ways.

The latest film from Hong Kong auteur Zhang Yimou may be his most spectacular work to date. Zhang is better known in the States by fans of Asian drama for his film classics like Shangai Triad and Raise the Red Lantern with Gong Li, both of which received Oscar nominations. Despite his critical acclaim, none of his films have done very well at the box office in the States. With Hero, he ventures into the realms of Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon, taking a look at a mythic character from China’s vast history in a story that is part romance, part historical epic and a stunning visual film with amazing martial arts action. Hero was an enormous hit in Asia, and it was nominated for a foreign language Oscar in 2003, but it then sat on the backburner for years before Miramax finally got around to releasing it. (Yimou’s next film House of Flying Daggers was completed in that time, and will hopefully get released later this year.)

Yimou took an unconventional approach by getting Jet Li, a Chinese action star known in the States for action movies like Romeo Must Die and Kiss of the Dragon, to star in his film. Although he’s not really known as a dramatic actor, Li is obviously the film’s biggest draws to American audiences, even though it’s nothing like any of his other movies. He is joined by Maggie Cheung and Tony Leung, once again playing lovers as they did in Wong Kar Wai’s In the Mood for Love, which was also shot by Hero cinematographer Christopher Doyle. Both of them have appeared in dozens of Asian and foreign films, building a solid fan base of Asian film fans in the States, while Leung will also appear in the Asian crime drama, Infernal Affairs, which gets a limited release next month. Diehard action fans will also appreciate the fight between Li and Donnie Yen from Iron Monkey, since the two martial arts stars haven’t faced off since the martial arts classic, Once Upon a Time in China. Yimou is also once again working with young actress Zhang Zhi, who starred in his film The Road Home, before breaking out in this country in Ang Lee’s Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon.

The big problem is that Hero is a dramatic art film being marketed as a martial arts movie, which makes it a bit of an anomaly. Those who would usually like artsy Asian cinema may be put off by action star Jet Li having the lead role and the fact that it’s being promoted as a martial arts movie. Jet Li fans might be turned off by the amount of talking and the vague historical references, since the story and the pacing likely won’t appeal to younger male action fans at all. It’s odd that the movie is being marketed to them rather than to older movie lovers who may be able to appreciate Yimou’s vision.

Although foreign language films rarely get nationwide releases, there have been exceptions, the most notable one being Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon. Hero has been well promoted in recent months with Quentin Tarantino attaching his name to it and attaching the trailer to his successful Kill Bill Vol. 2 earlier this year. Tarantino and Li even appeared together on an IFC Channel special about martial arts films as part of the network’s Asian film month. Miramax also seems to be giving it a big push despite the rather strange choice of release dates.

The long delays are bound to have hurt the movie as well, since true Hong Kong action fans will have already gotten it on import DVD or (let’s be honest) downloaded it from the internet. Of course, so many people have already seen and loved the movie that it has found its way onto IMDb’s top 250 movies of all time even without an American theatrical release, so the positive word-of-mouth should convince others to see it. This also may be one of the few chances for others to see the film in theatres, and it is the type of movie that deserves to be seen on the big screen.

Related Comparisons
Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Cradle 2 the Grave	2/28/03	2,625		$16.52	$6,294	$34.66
The One	11/2/01	2,894		$19.11	$6,604	$43.91
Kiss of the Dragon	7/6/01	2,025		$13.30	$6,570	$36.83
Romeo Must Die	3/24/00	2,641	$6.59	$18.01	$6,819	$55.97
Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon	1/12/01	693	$19.89	$7.73	$11,154	$128.07
Iron Monkey	10/12/01	1,225		$6.01	$4,906	$14.68

Bottom Line: Of all the movies this weekend, Hero might end up being the wild card long shot. It’s either going to find a large and avid audience that can appreciate the quality of the film’s artistry as well as the martial arts or it will just be too much of an anomaly and turn everyone off. Either way, there are many who have been waiting for a long time to see the film, so it should do decently in the big cities.

Projection: $10 to 12* million weekend with a decent chance of legs if it finds its audience. (Update: As previously stated, Hero received a much wider release than originally reported, so it will likely do closer to $12 million than the original prediction of $9 million. )

MY REVIEW

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SUPER BABIES: BABY GENIUSES 2 (Columbia Pictures)
Starring: Jon Voight, Scott Baio, Vanessa Angel, Skyler Shaye, Justin Chatwin, Peter Wingfield, Gerry Fitzgerald, Leo Fitzgerald, Myles Fitzgerald, Max Iles, Michael Iles, Jared Scheideman, Jordan Scheideman, Maia Bastidas, Keana Bastidas
Directed by: Bob Clark (Porky’s, Baby Geniuses, A Christmas Story,The Karate Dog, Now and Forever)
Genres: Inane Talking Kids Action Movie
Rated PG
Tagline: “Meet the new generation of superheroes” (Do we have to?)

The talking toddlers of the family comedy Baby Geniuses are back (sort of) taking on an evil media mogul (Jon Voight) with the help of the legendary Kahuna (the Fitzgerald triplets), a baby with superpowers. With the help of Kahuna, the babies must stop the evildoer from using his satellite system to control the world.

Do you know how weird this movie is? Okay, go watch the trailer and then come back. Pretty weird, huh? The original 1999 movie was an obvious rip-off of Look Who’s Talking, a hit family film that was driven into the ground by one bad sequel after another. The first Baby Geniuses movie wasn’t that big a hit—it had a minimal opening and then found more business over its run--so it’s odd that they’d make this sequel. If you think about it, they can’t even have the same babies as the first movie since they’re all five or six years old by now.

Then you have the premise. Seriously, how many more evil-geniuses-taking-over-the-world-unless-the-kids-stop-them movies can we have in one lifetime? First, there was Spy Kids, and then there was Agent Cody Banks, and this year there has already been a number of huge rip-off bombs like Catch That Kid and Thunderbirds. This premise is so lame and overused that I can’t imagine any moviegoers, young or old ready to buy another one.

Where things really get weird is when you realize that director Bob Clark, the man behind the Baby Geniuses franchise, is also the creator and director of the first two Porky’s movies! Not only that, but he also was responsible for the holiday classic, A Christmas Story! Other than Baby Geniuses, things haven’t been so great and his other recent movie, The Karate Dog, which seems to have a similarly lame premise, has only found distribution in Russia but nowhere else. How the mighty have fallen.

At least Clark was able to get some known actors for the movie like Jon Voight—once again playing the villain—and appearing for his first major film in decades...Scott Baio. Older folks may remember Baio from his days on the 70’s sitcoms Happy Days and Joanie Loves Chachi. He’s mainly starred in direct-to-video movies in the last few years, but he’s also appearing in Wes Craven’s problem-plagued thriller Cursed. (Not exactly the greatest comeback.) Baio has even been doing the talk show rounds for Super Babies, which may be the first time anyone has wanted to talk to him in decades.

While babies are cute and they certainly are worthwhile things to have from time to time, they seem to be loved more by parents than they are by kids, because after all, they’re the competition. There’s little to show that either might want to see this movie, especially after they all avoided last week’s Benji Off the Leash!, and that stars the most loveable pooch ever put on film! If nothing else, the franchise will be the best place for twin toddlers to find work, although I doubt we’ll be seeing any Mary-Kate and/or Ashley’s coming out of this mess.

Related Comparisons
Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
Baby Geniuses	3/12/99	1,689	$5.61	$3,321	$27.14
Look Who's Talking Now	11/5/93	1,858	$4.02	$2,164	$10.17
Look Who's Talking Too	12/14/90	1,576	$8.10	$5,140	$46.61
Look Who's Talking	10/13/89	1,208	$12.11	$10,025	$140.09

Bottom Line: The lack of movies for younger kids could work in Super Babies’ favor but the idiotic looking premise and commercials will keep parents at bay, much like most of this year’s other family offerings. This will likely follow the pattern of unnecessary family sequels that don’t do nearly as well as the original and avoid the Top 10 altogether.

Projection: $3 million opening weekend with a possibility of $9 to 10 million overall.

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SUSPECT ZERO (Paramount Pictures)
Starring: Aaron Eckhart, Ben Kingsley, Harry Lennix, Carrie-Anne Moss
Directed by: E. Elias Merhige (Shadow of the Vampire, Anti-Christ Superstar)
Genres: Psychological Thriller, Serial Killer
Rated R
Tagline: “Who’s Next?”

FBI profiler Thomas Mackelway (Eckhart) is investigating a strange murder that he learns may be commited by a former FBI agent (Ben Kingsley) using his profiling skills to track and kill other serial killers.

Filmed almost two years ago and then shelved, Suspect Zero is the perfect example of a late August dumper, a movie that is so difficult to market for whatever reason that the studio releases it into theatres just to prove that they tried but failed. It’s odd since Suspect Zero seems to have a very strong cast. Ben Kingsley is a multiple Oscar nominated actress, Carrie-Anne Moss was the lead actress in The Matrix trilogy and the popular crime drama Memento, and Aaron Eckhart is no slouch, having appeared in a number of prominent films. Zak Penn, whose eclectic resume includes Inspector Gadget and Behind Enemy Lies, wrote the movie, and it’s directed by E. Elias Merhige, whose last film Shadow of the Vampire, received critical attention.

So how can such a great group create a movie that gets shelved for so long? Kingsley may be the movie’s only star draw. This movie was made around the time of his indie cult favorite Sexy Beast, for which he got an Oscar nomination, and he also got an Oscar nod for his role in last year’s drama House of Sand and Fog. Neither of those did very well at the box office, and Kingsley seems to not be having a very good year with his last movie, Thunderbirds, being the biggest money-losing bomb of the summer.

The second problem is the genre, as it has been used to death since the success of David Fincher’s se7en. The last voyage into the serial killer genre was Angelina Jolie’s Taking Lives, and though it didn’t do bad, other movies like Sandra Bullock’s Murder by Numbers didn’t do so great. Despite the popularity of the genre, the trailer and the premise don’t look very appealing, taking a more cerebral, psychological approach ala Bill Paxton’s Frailty.

Paramount Pictures must know that this movie won’t find much of an audience since they’re dumping it into only 1,500 theatres across the nation, about the same as Frailty. If they had any confidence, they would at least try to make up for the low numbers with volume. Last week’s Exorcist: The Beginning proved that a movie could go through development hell and come out smelling like a rose, but Suspect Zero probably won’t be so lucky.

Related Comparisons
Title	Release Date	Theater Count	Previous Box Office (in millions)	Weekend Box Office (in millions)	Average	Total Box Office
House of Sand and Fog	12/19/03	2		$0.05	$22,786	$10.97
Sexy Beast	7/6/01	134	$2.35	$0.74	$5,498	$6.95
Memento	5/11/01	445	$8.98	$1.22	$2,733	$25.93
Paycheck	12/26/03	2,762	$5.30	$13.46	$4,874	$53.15
Possession	8/16/02	270		$1.58	$5,833	$10.10
Shadow of the Vampire	1/26/01	513	$0.57	$1.89	$3,682	$8.28
Taking Lives	3/19/04	2,705		$11.46	$4,236	$32.68
Murder By Numbers	4/19/02	2,642		$9.31	$3,495	$31.87
Frailty	4/12/02	1,497		$4.21	$2,806	$13.08

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After striking out in the bottom of the 9^th in a softball game and being labeled “the chooch”, a Queens resident and his cousin take a trip to Cancun to try to cheer him up. Instead, they get caught up in a madcap adventure involving a bag of money. Like a modern, urban version of What’s Up Doc?, Chooch opens in a few theatres in and around New York.

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